What is up, fellow thermonuclear aappers. I am Dan Valley, coming at
you with my fantabulous co host Grant Hughes following on Twitter at GC Underscore Hughes.
We've both worked athlete reporters you may know for like twenty years at this
point, I think it's more like ten plus. But anyway, we are
here with another over unders episode. If you've not checked out our Western Conference
over Under predictions, do so. That episode is out, which means that
we're onto the Eastern Conference. Very briefly, though, I would like to
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the YouTube description, and join our discord, which we're hoping will be a
little bit more active now. Once I won finished these NBA team look aheads
and then two once the regular seasons up and running. Also, if you've
not checked out the NBA team look Aheads. As I've said, the views
and the downloads have been absolutely terrible on them relative to last season. I
don't know why, but they've been fantastic. The guests have been great.
It's good to just get these sort of previews and in depth looks at where
each team is headed. And with all of that out of the way,
we ask the only question that anyone actually cares about with regard to this podcast,
Grant, how the heck are you doing today? I'm nervous, Dan.
I didn't enjoy doing the East over Unders as much as the West because
I have a lot less confidence than most of them. So I'm just gonna
do my best, you know. That's all we can ask is I'm just
gonna I'm gonna give you my best effort. We'll see where we land.
You. You sound like someone who's just resigned to going four and eleven conference
over under. Yeah, yeah, no, that's right. We do not.
This is not betting advice or anyone. I did go over five hundred
for US a second consecutive year last season and picking them, but I wouldn't
endorse anyone making bets off what we say. I actually do not bet on
sports, do you grant? No, it's a suckers game. The oddsmakers
are too smart and so I don't do that. Or you and I are
too stupid, too dumb. Yeah, well whichever either way, it doesn't
work out well for me. Either way, Let's get for people that are
watching on YouTube, it's a fun experience to follow along with because I'm gonna
put it up on the screen. How about that You'll get to see a
peek behind the Google doc and you'll I put some easter eggs in terms of
what the sheets are named in there, if anyone's just looking for those and
I've blacked out frame watching on YouTube our Western Conference picks. Go check out
that video immediately or that podcast if you haven't listened to it already. We
begin in the East with the Atlanta Hawks. They were at forty five and
a half grant. Where did you land on them? I'm over just barely
about as close as you can be, And I feel bad about it because
I just I think, obviously Jon Tay Murray should address the defense and secondary
ball handling and ease the burden of Trey Young. And this Sat and the
other. You know, you could just go down the list of all the
reasons he's helpful. I think they're just a little bit deeper, generally speaking,
like justin Holiday and for that matter, Aaron Holiday are are quality death
pieces. I think there's a good case to be made that DeAndre Hunter and
Anyeka Kongwu could be way better than they were last year. And so,
you know, then, how do you how do you just narrowly go over?
I don't know. I just think, you know, Bogdanovich kind of
having more Nie stuff throughout the preseason and training camp kind of bothers me because
he means a lot of that team. I could see Capella slipping. I
just I don't know. I'm trying to talk myself into a reason why I
didn't go like way over. But we're we're over. I think the Hawks
are are going to be better. I just think there's just so much depth
in the East that like, you could be a significantly better team and your
win total might just because of the degree of difficulty, not be that much
higher. I'm with everything you said, and I actually had them at forty
six victories and when I went through my record projections and I'll try and remember
to show those or we'll go through our standings predictions at the end. But
I totally was just so excited to be done with the Western Conference that I
just cut us out on that one. I think there's there's real combustibility here.
I don't I feel like people are sort of just dismissing that Murray and
Trey are going to work on offense. You need either to move Trey Young
off the ball more or hope Murray just can you know, cut more or
hit more set jumpers? And I will just caution, we don't know if
Trey Young can work off the ball. I believe that he can. Will
he be actually Steph Curry and just paying around everywhere? I doubt it.
That being said, if your solution to making this work when they're on the
court together is to take the ball out of the hands of your best player
more often, there's some value in that, but it does make me a
little uneasy. The fit makes a ton of sense on defense, but you
also kind of wonder, well, how good will they be on defense?
A healthy Clinkuppela will help a ton, But like DeAndre Hunter has been underwhelming
there the past season or two I mean he's also struggled with health, not
so much. He struggled with health during his career as well. They've been
linked to Jay Crowder. Are you trusting justin holiday to give you and really
buoy your secondary wing minutes? And if it's not him, you know,
are you trusting who as like You're as like Jalen Johnson is going to be
in the rotation? How big roles are yet Ungu going to play? I
don't think it's bankable that they're a ton improved on the defensive end. I
could see them sort of fading into just the the abyss of the East in
the sense like the middle class is super deep this year and they might be
lower than we think. But I Trey Young, John Collins still there,
Clinkopela still there, He's healthier. The roster makes their top six, top
seven guys makes so much sense together And if the Murray Trey Young offensive gets
answered in the affirmative, we might be looking at a team that could maybe
flirt with fifty victories, especially if they wind up crushing opponents during the non
trade minutes, which they got a little bit better in certain lineups last year
with those but now Dejante Murray. If you're not winning those minutes, it's
a problem. Yep. We are onto the Boston Celtics at fifty three and
a half. Where do you land on Boston? Grant? So I'm under
on the Celtics, and it's kind of like there's there's some elements of like
Phoenix East here where I feel like I'm discounting. You know, how good
this team was a year ago and this is like a pretty significant fall for
them to get all the way under this number. I Have'm at fifty two
wins. But like so they're just a couple. Main issues are if m
Audoka was such a great coach, which I think he was, I think
you can credit him with a lot of the defensive sea change midway through the
season, you have to say that him not being there hurts, right,
Like you can't either he's great or he's not. And if he's not,
if he's not there, then that matters. And related is Robert Williams,
the third uh just never looked right in the finals. Had another operation.
He's had now a couple on that knee, and that's a problem to me
because he was the key to that defensive change mid year that totally revamped what
the Celtics were and lifted their ceiling and all that. So he's gonna miss
time. And then if you get sort of the finals version of him,
where he's awesome for like sixteen minutes in a game and then doesn't play the
next game, and he's awesome for you know, twenty minutes the next game,
but he's off for you know, a week after that, I just
I don't know. And the Gallo torn acl out for the year. I
don't know how much he was really gonna matter because I still think, you
know, Grant Williams al Horford, that's you're okay there. It hurts more
with Williams being out frankly too. But yeah, there's just there's just enough,
there's enough points of concern at really key area is I think that I
have some. I'm I'm kind of cautiously. I don't know. Can you
be cautiously pessimistic about about the Celtics. That's how I feel about them right
now. I went under as well, and look, I have him at
forty nine wins, which is too fewer than last year. I think the
Rob Robert Williams, the third injury will make a difference. We're talking about
something who might not play until twenty twenty three. It's probably more of a
concern if we're talking about him being limited in the postseason. So I get
that you do have Jayson Tatum, John Brown, the Malcolm Brogden pick up
helps, there's still depth there, but all Horford's alsto older and just like
twenty nine plus minutes of game, does he have to play more in RW
the three's absence? Are you going to more Grant Williams at the five even
though he's not really viewed as a five and hasn't been used a ton like
a five there necessarily, And then you're getting into well are we relying on
Blake Griffin, Noah von Ley FIANDU Cavin Gelly, how are you? And
also they're talking about Celtics fans and the Celtics in general seem incredibly high and
Luke Cornett and Sam Howser. You need to hit on one of these just
fringe roster bigs. And then you almost need to hit on Sam House or
with gallow Out because I think he helps you alleviate some of what is still
a shock creation concern. I think Malcolm Brogden gives you some of that north
south creativity where he can get going from a standstill on drives. And then
of course you have Jalen Brown, who shot forty one percent on step backs
almost sixty percent I believe on fadeaway or fall away jumpers last year. And
then you have Jason Tatum, but like you don't have someone aside from my
guess Jason Tatum really who gives you like the full you know, circular shot
creation where it's east and west and north and south and can be all over
the place there. And Gallow gave you some of that. I'm not saying
to a degree that you would have felt fine, but short of in the
same vein where Marcus Smart or Jalen Brown would have given you some of that.
There was a lot of directionality and foul drawing to Gallinari's game, So
I think they wind up missing that, especially with r W the three out.
This is a team that feels like it might reach it's st youngest point
during the postseason, which is all that matters. And then just the email
Eudoka stuff does that cast a pal over the organization, especially if he winds
up getting fired rather than suspended because they clearly don't want him there. Do
we learn more details of his relationship with a staffer, It hasn't been reported
yet. I don't think if she was a direct subordinate or not, but
the power dynamic was clearly needed to be an issue there. So I'm just
saying there's more details to come out. And also the fact that it was
reported as consensual, but then like non consensual at one point, there's no
such thing as like a Parsley consensual. That whole the reporting on this was
wildly irresponsible, and it underscored just how ill equipped sports media is in general,
not like even a podcasters like ourselves are to talk about and handle this
stuff, and we're not. I'm not saying we deserve to know all the
details. At the same time, I don't like people coming out and saying,
oh, if you ever find out all the details, this is going
to blow your mind. That's stupid too. So I would be worried about
if if the staffer's name comes out, you know, because her safety at
risk, which she would have to deal with. And then we already have
the dumb ass social media sleuths trying to figure out which female on the staff.
It was when a name wasn't tied to this whole thing. My point
is is that it could end up being a mid season storyline because it's such
a big deal and they've suspended him for a year, which is unprecedented.
But there's reports saying that they would welcome other teams coming and hiring him,
and so that screams we want to get rid of him. We're just not
sure if we have the grounds too. Yeah, and that I'm not saying
the players should be impacted by that, but they might. It might wear
on them if they're answering questions about it. But overall, the RW three
injury coupled with then all the questions you have upfront with al Gallo, and
then some of the you know, Al Horford's age, even though he's still
really good. I want to make that clear. This was not an easy
under for me. But it's like I said, they seem like a team
very much built to hit their stride during the playoffs. I should I should
add, and I didn't mention this upfront. I was comparing them to Phoenix
and all this is a huge drop when obviously they won fewer games last year
than I'm projecting this year. They had the point differential of a fifty nine
win team last year and the only the only team that was better was Phoenix,
so they had some luck issues. And also that's a factor, I
mean, they're a ridiculous leap you know in the second half of the year
is a factor that just drove their point differential up. They were by far,
by far the highest net rating team, you know, starting whenever you
wanted to do your cut off, like January fifteenth or February first, or
post All Star. So that's why coming down to under fifty three and a
half feels sketchy to me, even with all the things we agree we're both
under, but like, this is a team that damn near you know,
could have won sixty games last year, maybe should have won sixty games.
So so that that that was factoring in my thinking. I wanted to throw
that out there before we move on. So this might blow up in both
of our faces, is what you're saying. Might that you know what else
also could blow up the Brooklyn Nets, who are next. Their line is
said at fifty one point five, did you go over or under? One
of my easiest unders? And that's while acknowledging that they could win six games.
I don't know. I just I think the downside risk is enormous.
There's so many ways for this to go bad. I feel like we've spent
this entire offseason talking about the nets Kevin. You know, Kevin Durant misses
tons and tons and tons of time and nobody talks about it. Part of
that's a full season off, but like he's just been hurt soft tissue stuff
over this not so fun fact, let's hear it. Since twenty eighteen twenty
nineteen, Kevin Durant has appeared in fewer combined regular season in playoff games than
both Kawai and Joel Embiid. Okay, so why are so let's assume he's
gonna miss half the season then, right or like it's not it's not inconceivable,
right, and we're talking about fifty one and a half over under,
Like that's that's up there. I think they're gonna win forty six. But
that's with the Katie stuff. Kyrier mean's gonna miss time for you name it,
injury? Uh like some seance that he has to go to. I
don't, I don't know, like just whatever nonsense he's gonna get up to
that's non basketball related. His commitment to his team has been questionable basically forever
there's Ben Simmons. I don't like. I don't know what kind of Ben
Simmons are going to get. The preseason returns, grains of salt being thrown
in all over the place, don't look good. Like all the same stuff
is still there with him just not wanting to shoot the ball or be a
part of the offense in a significant way. The supporting cast is pretty good.
I like a lot of it, but Seth Curry and Joe Harris are
hurt, and Joe Harris has an ankle thing again, and that's hugely troubling
because that's what knocked him out basically all of last year, and he couldn't
get back after the first incident with his ankle, So that's a problem.
The downsides are just they're just everywhere. That's just too high of a win
total for me to go over. I am with you. I went under,
and I'm like, not, I'm not necessarily comfortable about it, But
I also have him at forty five wins, and so I'm clearly just like,
there's going to be a fucket factor here, and it's their range of
outcomes is wide. And I'll frame it like this way, Like Kyrie Irving
could lead the league in scoring, he could also lead the league and work
from home requests on game day. And it's just it's unfathomable trying to figure
out what this team would become. And also I think there are questions about
how Ben Simmons, even if he stays healthy, will fit on offense and
then also the defense. We can't just assume he can play a bunch of
center and this will be okay. But then we also can't assume that he
can play with Nicholas Claxton or Dayron Sharp, so there might struggle defensively.
They're deep with offensive talent, but they don't If you have Katie and Kyrie,
you don't necessarily need all this offensive depth. Oh wait, maybe you
do, because how many games are they gonna play in at the same time
if they if this team stays together and Kadi, Kyrie and Benjamin's all playing
at least sixty five plus games, I don't even I guess I would pick
THEE over there. I'm just not betting on that happening. And I could
very much. See this thing just imploding and the other we just can't.
You can't tell me Katie request a trade, demands that Steve Kerr and Shawn
Marks get fired. All three are still with the team and everything's just okay,
no, no, no, we don't get to play that card.
I'll believe it when I see it. Yeah, I'm this team has I
mean, it's the most it's it's the easiest, like if if and when
it goes bad, it'll it'll have been the easy like of course, right,
we'll just sit here being like, yeah, of course that was the
number one pick on the combustibility rankings. They do have the widest range of
outcomes of any team though, right, for sure, there's so much talent.
There's so much top end talent. There's Charlotte Hornets are up. Their
line has moved down to thirty four point five following news that Lamela Ball is
going to miss time with a sprained right ankle to start the season. Grant,
where did you have them? I was under before that line moved.
Then I'm gonna stay under. I think, I mean kind of like quietly,
this team. You can make the case there aren't no ya sucks,
No they're gonna suckle loud. They they what they need from a ball who
now has a Grade two ankle spring. I think it's great too. They
need more from him than a lot of teams need from their best player because
we're just we don't need to talk about it. But Miles Bridges is not
going to play I strongly assume maybe ever, but certainly not this year.
And that guy was really good last year, Like, he really mattered for
this team, and they have not replaced any of his individual shock creation,
solid secondary facilitation. I don't want to pump the guy up, but he
mattered and they didn't replace him. Gordon Hayward's gonna miss time. I still
hate the center position, almost regardless of who plays there. So like if
Lamello, I think I heard you say, you know, he's the most
improved candidate, totally legit pick I mean many though maybe not, but I
mean before that, it was totally reasonable that he could make a leap and
you know, maybe carry this team to like some play in consideration. Now
they're like, I think this is a low thirties win total team and it
could be worse than that, and they might be wise to steer into that
if if LaMelo, you know, if this injury lingers, or if there's
a situation where we can just let's just hey, it's March. He's had
this thing all year with his ankle, he's had a hard time getting back.
Let's shut it down right like that. That's that's definitely in the cards.
So so I'm under. I think you could knock this line down to
like thirty two and a half and I'd have to think about it, maybe,
but at this point not really. I went under as well, and
I have them at thirty two wins, So thirty two and a half would
be a thing point for me. But depending on how much time LaMelo misses
this, Without LaMelo ball, this could feasibly be the worst team in the
league. I don't think he's gonna miss that much time, but I'm with
you that they could pull the plug, decide to tank, and there will
be people talking about both. LaMelo becomes disenchanted. What if he wants out
the way that the rookie extension process just works. He is going to sign
the deal. And so if you're actually going to start over, now is
the time to do it, because this is your three and he he's soon
going to come off his rookie scale contract. The clock. The clock really
starts ticking when they begin that extension, which will happen two seasons from now.
So I would be in favor of them doing that even if LaMelo was
fully healthy. But like, let's just say LaMelo comes back and miss is
like seven to nine games. This team is probably two and seven at that
point if that, And oh, is Gordon Hayward just gonna stay healthy while
year, like or is that something that we're actually going to bank on.
You mentioned the center position. You have Mason Plumley, They're probably not gonna
play Mark Williams all that much. Kay Jones doesn't look ready. Steve Clifford
has talked a lot about Nick Richards kind of having a stronghold on the backup
five spot, and they have other nice players, but like not real secondary
creation. Are you trusting Dennis Smith Junior? Here? James book Knight from
what I've seen in preseason. I want to still believe in him after twenty
twenty one Summer League, but he's just looked bad. And Cody Martin I
really like, and Gordon Hayward his secondary creators, but like, is it
enough and PG Washington is nice. But that's where I find myself sing,
oh, this is a nice player. These a lot of plug and play
players, but no one else that you can really feature. Gordon Hayward probably
comes closest this, especially with like you know, the other amount of teams
that are tanking. This is a team that if they really want a tank
and they're not ready to just shut down guys and not play them, you
gotta start wheeling and dealing. Where it's like, is there a taker for
Gordon Hayward's deal? Can we offload Terry Rozier. I think it's more likely
they get to that point than the playing right now, which sucks because we
know that Michael Jordan owned teams aspire to get to the ten seed. The
Chicago Bulls are at forty one point five. Grant, what did you have?
Matt? I got an under here too, just narrowly. I think
I just really like the whole I like, I guess I gotta take an
l on Demard Rozen and that whole trade because like, yeah, I mean,
god damn, like he was an MVP candidate for a section of last
year. I thought that, like I thought the Bulls just like lost that
trade on talent with the Spurs. In hindsight, that was wrong. But
I think defensively this team is gonna struggle. I think Lonzo ball being out
is like just a just a disaster. I mean, like the Ball brothers
just just destroying their teams by being out, and it was like a cool
fund trend. Alonzo seems mega serious. Billy Donovan kind of alluded to that
he has the plans if Alonzo won't play this year, right and and he's
vital. Like I know it's an oversimplification, but when the Bulls were like,
holy shit, this team is first in the East and looks really great.
That's when Lonzo was healthy and Alex Cruzer got hurt too. But like
nobody on the roster that played as many minutes as Lonzo did last year had
a bigger positive impact on their defensive rating. There were eight point six points
per Hunter possessions stingier on defense with him on the floor, that's noisy,
it's half a season. But if you watch the Bulls at all, him
and Caruso just wrecking stuff at the point of attack and being in passing lanes
was the defense. So if he's not there, you're losing that. You're
losing i mean a forty two points something percent spot up three point shooter,
You're losing probably the best passer on the team. You're just losing stuff that
you can't replace with anybody else. And we saw last year the Bulls are
basically a sub five hundred team if Lonzo's not playing, So so do that
like Patrick Williams, maybe he pops, although like there was talk within the
last couple of days that he might not have a tight grip on his starting
job, which they brough him off the bench for some of the preseason.
Like that's bad, Like that's like a long term oh shit, because the
Bulls don't have a lot outs because they give up two firsts to Orlando for
vooch that, which you know, there's there's your other defensive problem along with
de Rosen. So I just see this team as being a lot more like
you know, the latter stages of last season when they came back to Earth
and work, you know, kind of break even and Derosen would bail them
out occasionally. But I just I think it's I think it's kind of Portlandy,
you know, like just drawing more parallels between East and West like they're
five hundred ish. I guess they could be a little bit better if the
offense is great and Lavine's healthy. But I don't. I don't. I
don't feel comfortable going over forty one and a half, and their off season
was rather uninspiring. You could say, who were they supposed to pick up?
But like using part of the mL E on Andre Drummonds is just like,
why, okay? And why did you use the bi annual on Tristan
Thomps in the middle of last year. That would have been something you could
have used this year. Gore and Drage apparently chose them over Dallas because he's
gonna have a bigger role. That should have been the red flag for a
Lonzo in the first place. But also, what does that say about Kobe
White. It's just and he had like he was on a heater at one
point last year. This team has talent, especially on the offensive end.
I don't know how they're gonna shake out on defense. I don't have confidence
in any of their bigs. Their best defensive big is probably Derrick Jones Junior
or Patrick Williams, and I thought maybe that's why they're bringing Patrick Williams off
the bench. Maybe they want to give him some more ball handling responsibility too.
There's a scenario in which the Bulls are like, okay, to really
find but the Alonzo injury just has me all sorts of pessimistic, and I
think they're a team that could sort of pivot into this. I took the
under on forty one half. I think I have them at forty so just
on the fringes. But if they wanted to, they could start selling off
the Martin Rose and they could move him. They could be a sneaky Russell
Westbrook trade destination at this point. So yeah, all sorts of concerned about
them, not as concerned about the Cleveland Cavaliers who were next up. Their
line is at forty seven and a half. Grant, where do you have
a Calv's at? That's an over for me. I just think over the
ruin to the moon. No, I only have him at four, I
only have him at forty nine. Winslowood and asshole. I know, just
I just don't believe. I think. I just it's hard for me to
see throwing out all the normal like every a team issues of oh injuries or
the sentence like It's hard for me to see how this goes wrong in a
major way because, like you just you're just adding Donovan Mitchell to a team
that has just like one of my favorite young guards in the entire league in
Garland. I think like he just does other than if he were like two
inches taller, like this guy would be just a total force. He's just
a little undersized to be like a true, you know, a one game
changer, but he's really good. He does everything you need him to do.
He can make spot up shots, he can shoot off the dribble,
he can get into the lane, all great stuff. And the concerns you'd
have about pairing him with Mitchell, I think are just mitigated because Evan Mobley
can guard everything and is going to be a superstar. And Jared Allen,
who I think, I tell you my I think because you know you shout
out Frank Milackena. If I had a tagline at the end of these pods,
it would just be like Jared Allen, I'm sorry because best we've talked
about a million times, we thought his contract was terrible and we're very wrong.
If there are any first time listeners out there, and if they're Cavs
fans who haven't listens. We skewed that deal and we we probably look pretty
bad that segment when we were grading the twenty twenty one of that age,
so terrible, guy bad. But we're making up for it because we're I'm
sure you're over. I don't want us stay there at Thunder. The cabs
are gonna be awesome. They're gonna be super fun to watch. Mobiley is
like just I couldn't be higher on a young player than I am on Mobili.
So yeah, it's over for me, and I feel great about it.
Yeah, I had you listen as Under for a minute. I don't
know why I did that. I was probably pissed because you didn't go to
fifty wins like I did for them. I have him at fifty to fifty
one wins. Easy over for me, I will say, doing I participated,
it's no longer sort of this solo job, the NBA rank at Pleach
Report. I used to do it myself. Now it's a collaborative process and
people are gonna be mad. Where Darius Garland ended up. I couldn't believe
it. He is low. I don't know if it's released yet, so
I'm not gonna drop the number, but my fucking god, I'm I'm with
you. Do you know who threw more assists at the rim than Darius Garland
last year? Tell me Trey Young And that's that's it. You also have
both Darius Garland Donovan Mitchell ranked as two of the most efficient, high volume
off the dribble three point shooters for the second half of last year. This
is or sorry, Darius Garland was for the second half of the year,
and they both were like over thirty five percent for the season on high enough
volume. I can't be I missed on the Mobili pick. I didn't think
it was gonna be a bust, but I didn't understand it watching him,
I see it the buzz. Justin Rowan of the Chasetown podcast came on.
We were talking the buzz coming out of training camp. Apparently it's just that
he is a fucking monster, and we're talking about like face up stuff,
pull up jumpers. Who knows if they get to plumb that he was dealing
with an ankle injury at one point. Don't think it was serious, so
that's good. There are some questions about the depth on this team and the
East is going to be good. I'm a big believer in Dean Wade,
and so I think you stick those four out there, close the game with
Dean Wade and you'll be fine. They also they can still make a trade
like they have as Isaac Okorro. They have just some like movable money when
you're looking at Jetty osman Is, there's still believers in Dylan Windler. Just
money that's not damaging. This team gets better too when Ricky Rubio comes back,
and what if Carris Lavert hits There are some just like awkwardness there.
You do need to stagger to where I think you want Leavert off the bench,
but you don't want him playing too much with Rubio because that's just sort
of this thorny fit. But they'll figure it out. And I think that
this is going to be a fifty win team barring any just huge injury.
And I look there are they get to the postseason there, I don't.
I'm not gonna count them as a Tier one contender. No, but I
look at this team on paper right now, and if you told me they
made a trade for a wing, not like a super not an Ogana Noby
type wing, which is a wing like if it was Gary Trent Junior,
or if it was even if it was Jay Crowder, I don't love that
fit. But if it was Jay Crowder or if it was Cody Martin,
I don't care. I might be ready to build them as just like a
fringe Tier one contender. I am so unbelievably high on the Calves, which
is probably bad news, bad news for the Calves if we're being honest here.
No, I love them too. That is it. Though. If
they had if they had a six seven guy who could guard and make threes
at like a thirty seven percent clip, then we're really talking. But I
think they just have enough everywhere else to just smash this over. The Detroit
Pistons are up. Their win total is twenty nine point five. What are
you got? Grant? Kind of a hard one, I went under.
I think I guess I'm receptive to you know, Cunningham is gonna is gonna
pop, and I really like Jade and Ivy I have I don't so you
say I tweet quarterly. I tweeted today, Dan. I mean, was
it because you were coming on the podcast you wanted something to plug? Yeah?
No, that was it And it's not. It's just I saw Jade
and Ivy make three incredible plays in the preseason game tonight, and I just
like it, just it just it just was a what is it? Confirmation
by us because I sort of thought like, this guy is a level of
athlete that comes along, you know, once every five six years, and
like everything he does just verifies that. So I don't know if he's gonna
be good, but man, I really enjoy watching him, and I think
theoretically the fit with Cunningham long term makes all the sense in the world,
just like a total nuclear athlete with the guy that's polished and can handle the
ball and do like all the all the like fine motor skill stuff. I
think I like Detroit's potential. I just am not even with even if with
these some of like more win nowish moves, I guess, which is what
you call the Bogdanovitch trade. I think they're just a high twenties win total
team. I have him at twenty eight, which is under Technically they could
steer into it too like some of these other teams and really you know,
tank tank hard down the stretch, But I guess I view them as as
a notch currently above the four really shitty West teams, and so I think
the winds have got to come somewhere, Like everybody can't win twenty five or
fewer. So I think I think they're going under, but they're but they're
going to be closer to that thirty twenty nine and a half mark than some
of these others. Yeah, I went under a twenty seven two and I
didn't feel great about it. It does feel like the Pistons one of the
mat and Zach always said this, I'm I guess I'm like co opting its
thought. But I think when you looked at the East pecking order, you
could see that maybe the Pistons or the Magic would be better than like one
of the Hornets or both of the Wizard, like one of those two teams
or both of them. It's almost counterintuitive to not pick the Pistons there because
they have the two best like creators. I know, Palabank Carrol's in Orlando,
but also Jay and Ivy Bank. Carol's a rookie. There's a learning
curve for that creativity knowing you have Kate cunning him there though, So the
primary ball handling ball handler play in Detroit is better than what it is in
Orlando, unless you think Paalo bank Carol is a superstar from day one,
like maybe he's Luca Nanjos for all you know, possible. But like when
you're looking at jail And Suggs, who's injured by the way, where you
look at Marco Folt's also injured by the way, or an RJ. Hampton
or a Cole Anthony, that's just not gonna be as inspiring. That being
said, I dot really think the Magic just have more proven depth to them
when you're looking at what Wendell Carter Junior did last year, even though Bamba
having a good season. Chumokk, who I believe wants us. He found
out his name was pronounced differently, so I'm trying to pronounce that correctly.
It's not okay key, it's okay, okay. There's still again, there's
still a ton of unproven stuff there, and they maybe they move Terrence Ross
or Gary Harris. But I think I like the Magic better than the Pistons.
And it came down to when you look at Detroit. If they end
up playing jail And during at midyear a bunch of time, he's probably gonna
average like twelve thousand per thirty six minutes. It's just how it's gonna be.
And they have some the Marvin Bagley injury, I don't know if we've
gotten any updates on it. We've been recording for the past few hours,
but that I don't know how much it hurts their team if he's out,
but like it throws another wrinkle into the front court. But if he's healthy
joint case. He's talking about him being a stretch big and Marvin Bagley shot
had to affect a field goal percentage under thirty on jumpers last year. So
you're playing guys start with another big all the time. How does that work?
Norlan's Noel who's banged up to start the season. There's just so many
It's a wonky rotation with a lot of intriguing players, and I think ultimately
the Pistons are on the right track. And I like the Boyan mcdonovitch pick
up. He's going to streamline the ball handling and the decision making for Kaide
and Jay and Ivy just by giving them a capslock shooter. And hopefully if
they play Isaiah Livers he will too. But I'm also convinced that they're going
to move him at the trade deadline for a late first round pick, and
that the Jazz would have gotten a pick if they weren't looking to sort of
cut salary or willing to take on longer term deals. The Pistons, I
think might be more willing to do that. So it was It's an uncomfortable
under, but I think I think it's going to be an under, and
that I would still view them as not the OKC light. But they're a
team that's gonna say we're gonna try another year of playing for this draft pick
and then we go from there. Yeah, we are on too, the
Indiana Pacers, And that is a twenty three and a half win number that
I went over on comfortably, and that makes me uncomfortable. I have used
me that went over, Yeah I did. I have the Pacers as the
worst team in the East, and obviously they're in line to tank again or
to tank like Detroit and some other teams. I just look at the team
right now and like, it's not that bad. I like Haliburton. I
think Buddy Hild's gonna make shots. I like Duarte, I like Miles Turner,
I like I Jack's I think there's just like some decent to better like
in Haliburton's case, a lot better than decent players. And so it's a
little bit like Utah where yeah, like they might get off to a start
that's solid and then you really got to start like, you know, pushing
some buttons here and getting getting guys out or traded or sitting down or whatever.
But the restaurant paper is to me, it's like not that bad.
So, yeah, they're gonna win fewer games, I think than anyone in
the East, but they're just not right now. They're just not on the
level of those bad teams in the West, those bottom four. So I
think at the end of the year it could be a situation where they're trying
to be that bad. But I kind of think they're gonna bank enough wins
early where getting under twenty five or certainly under it what I say, twenty
three and a half, that might be hard to do. It is a
low total. I went under though, because I said that there's going to
be one. In my head when I was doing this, I was resigned
there being one really bad team in each conference. I picked the Spurs for
the West and the Indiana for the East because I think Miles Turner gets traded
sooner rather than later, and then after that it's just like you could trade
Buddy Hill, not trade Buddy Hill. He doesn't make a difference. Benedick
Mathrom very much intrigued, has a lot more to offer on the ball than
I thought he did. But he's a rookie. And how much talent did
you put around Torry s Albert. I think this will be a great experience
for him. But you guarantee Jalen Smith the starting spot for a reason.
Here you're not. You're in full on experimental mode. They're talking about using
Isaiah Jackson Moore on the ball. Maybe Christwarte comes out like Gangbusters. They
have no wings, They've Aaroni Smith is like going to be their primary wing
defender. What the fuck? So I think that and that's by design.
I think this roster is gonna be bad by design. And I don't know
if Herb Simon, the owner, was pushing back against them fully bottoming out.
But I think even with Miles Turner, maybe they might survive defensively on
some nights, but they're gonna be a team that's closer to rock bottom than
not even with him. But there's still there's a lot of reasons to still
watch them and players, you know, to develop. I just I went
into this saying there's always it feels like a really bad team in each conference,
and with the look, I think wins are gonna be harder to come
by in the Eastern part because I would view the Pistons and the Magic at
least early on to be very competitive, and also going up against teams like
Charlotte and Washington and New York and Chicago who will see themselves whatever is like
playing or postseason candidates, especially in the earlyer this season, to me,
it feels like the Pacers are probably going to fall behind that pack. I
had them at twenty wins. Oh wow, that's gonna be a fun one
to follow this year. Yeah, that is low. Next up we have
the Miami Heat at twenty ninety nine point. I got him, I got
him under I got him at forty seven wins. They're a little old,
they're a little bereft of PJ. Tucker man them in the Bucks both man.
Yeah that you know, don't trade, don't lose PJ. Tucker.
Although, like every time I talk about PJ Tucker right about him. I
have to throw in the thing of like you might, you might feel good
about getting away, you know now, then signing him that three year deal,
and then oh, oh geez when he's thirty eight or thirty nine,
like he's not really worth this money. I mean, that's it's not the
worst guy to try to move on from. It's just that, like nobody
replicates what he brought last year. You know, we we've talked about we
have to hit the other Martin brother. I think he's in line to play
a lot, and I think we both like him. Uh, it's just
it's not gonna do what Tucker did. I think Lowry, although he's supposedly
in shape and hopefully in a better place than last year, he's getting up
there. I think thirty six right, like we talk about Chris Paul Aging,
I mean, Lowry's right there. So I think the Heat are gonna
be really good. I think just a couple of other East teams have surpassed
him, and so I have him at forty seven. They just don't look
like a fifty win team to me, which you'd need to think they were
to go over here. I am in agreement with you I had them at
forty eight, for what it's worth, so I was a little bit closer
to the over than I thought thought I was gonna be. Well, excuse
me, if you have anyone wants a picture of someone dunking from the Blazers
that almost hit their head on the backboard. There you go. I could
see a scenario in which they hit the over. But I just have so
many questions about their bench again, even though it was good last year,
and Victor oldiep will presumably be healthy this year, and either you have him
or Tyler Hero coming off the bench. But just like are you playing is
Duncan Robinson even in this rotation? Are you gonna rely on over? You're
at seven to give you some minutes this year. I really do like Caleb
Martin. I think he's probably the guy that's your beard day Facto four,
but Lowry's another year older. I'll believe that Bam is going to be a
lot more aggressive on offense consistently day to day. When I see it,
I do think that's a real problem. By the way, it might be
an oversimplification, but it's an actual issue for them. Jimmy Butler is still
that guy and that could certainly power them to a lot of victories. Ers
welishers, a fantastic coach. I just they need to make a move to
me, And it's just until they do that, I'm not confident them being
that fifty win team. It's just I know nikaias Duncan and talked about or
written about that Heywood high Smith has given them some just really interesting minutes.
Like we're at the point now where we're again talking about the heat just unearthing
these diamonds in the rough. There's gonna be one season. I have to
imagine they're not gonna do that enough. And again, forty eight games is
still really freaking good. But what is the over under on the number of
games that BAM had a bio Jimmy Butler and Kyle Lowry played together? Who
I hope Kyle Lowry he was dealing with off court stuff last year. I
hope he's fine. One of my favorite players in the league just in general.
But how many games do they play together? Like, if you set
the over under at fifty six, I might take the under. Yeah,
yeah, that would bring us to the Milwaukee Bucks at fifty two point five.
Grant, where are you at with them. So it feels kind of
weird because they had the point differential of a fifty win team last year,
and yet this is one of my easiest overs. And it also feels weird
because they're one of those teams that like they've they've got their title. They
might have got another one last year had Chris Middleton stayed healthy. So they're
a team that, like, what do we care about the regular season?
I have them for the highest win total of any team in the league,
and I just think we've overthought it. They have They have Jannis, who
is the best player in world at the peak of his powers. Brook Lope
has missed a ton of time last year. Maybe he's at the age where
him being out there is not the help it used to be. Middleton will
be back. They're shooting there. They're kind of wing rotation. I have
questions about, but it's just it's fucking you, honest. It's a team
that has a ton of continuity, and I just don't see like a true
juggernaut in the East. I guess we'll get to Philly, maybe that's it.
And I think the Bucks just how all this institutional knowledge and top end
talent and Jannie didn't win a ring last year, so I assume he's the
most motivated person on planet Earth. And maybe we haven't seen the best of
a guy that's won two MVPs. So I'm just gonna bet on the guy
that I think is better than everyone else, and that's the honest And so
fifty fifty seven wins like isn't a nuts total. There's a team that's gonna
team. A team wins fifty seven games like almost every year, and sometimes
a couple of them do, so that that's gonna be it for me.
They're they're the one this year. For me, I really like the Yeah,
I do quite the fifty seven more feels like it might be tougher to
reach this year. Fifty three one the East last season it was an easy
over for me, though for a lot of the stuff you said and the
Chris Middleton wrist injury missing some of the time when you actually go through these
rosters in the East, where with Cleveland's dealing with and integrating Donovan Mitchell being
relying on some younger guys, but also some questions on the wing spots when
you look at how am I running out of teams already? When you look
at Miami's age, and we just talked about like concerns about their depth.
When you look at Philly with Harden and Embid is hard and worse, is
Embides still fragile? Do they have enough like backup five rotation? We're gonna
see too much Montras Harold at points. The Milwaukee Bucks are the least combustible
team, and maybe the NBA them or the Dever Nuggets regular season wise,
they just they have the infrastructure. These just iron men of superstars anchoring everything
around them. So I think they will win the East, finish the top
the regular season standings. I only have them at fifty three because I think
there's that much parody. But with what you said, I could see them
winning fifty seven sixty if Jannis is playing in every game, and it's just
it's possible. And if some of the other East teams, like in the
mid end, that start to fade out and tank and there's just more wins
available when they're normally isn't this was this might be my best bet actually in
the conference. Yeah, it just it looked really drilled down, and it's
just I have no questions. I have no questions about them, no ALUs,
no no notes. This next team, I actually considered making them my
best bet though, for the over under process that is the New York Knicks
and their line is set at thirty eight point five grant, did you go
over or under? I went over? It wasn't that tough. I think,
uh, what was there they had? They had the point differential of
a forty one win team last year. I think they're gonna win forty one
this year, which is kind of conservative. I think just based on like
if you think Jalen Brunson is anything, and I have to I think he
is. I think he's not an All Star, but I think he matters.
I think RJ. Barrett could get better. I think Isaiah Hartenstein is
like sort of offsets the poor decision of how much money they gave Mitchell Robinson.
I just like, you know, I think the Randall component of this
all is like very difficult. I just he doesn't help anybody on the team
look better. I don't think because of the ball dominance and the poor jump
shooting in the spacing. Maybe he's better than last year. I think he
came on towards the end of the year. You could speak that better than
I could. There's just a decent amount of time. I think Quentin Grimes
could take a big step forward. He should probably thinking how to start over
fourtyer. I'm open to that. So not world beaters, but like,
yeah, this this team can be five hundred. Why not? They're just
not and they're over for me, and I'm not necessarily confident in their direction
overall. That's where the Donovan Mitchell trade process comes in. Go check out
our knicks look ahead, go check out our reactions to the Donovan Mitchell trade
itself. So I don't want to get into that. I'm trying to think
of a way where, if they're relatively healthy, that they wouldn't hit this,
And it's Julius Randall can't be a part of a larger ecosystem, is
actively detrimental to the way they're playing, and Tips still won't play Obie topping
over him. And even if it's just like if your biggest quibble is that,
I know, starting lineups, a lot of people think they don't matter
when you're getting into the nitty gritty of how minutes are going to be distributed.
If you start Evan Fournier with RJ. Barrett, who should clearly start.
Jalen Bruns should clearly start. You're not fitting cam reddish immanual quickly,
Quentin Grimes, Deuce McBride and then Evan Fournier like who is restarting all into
that rotation, like it's just not someone's gonna get squeezed. And yet I'll
be mad if if it's you know, Quentin Grimes not playing enough, or
if it's a manual quickly not playing enough and Derek Rose by the way factors
and the tips is not gonna not play Derek Rose until I'd say I'm less,
but it's until he gets injured and missus time. My point there is,
even if you have a problem with that process, it probably if it's
happening, only helps the Knicks's win total. And so that's like I could
if you play the youth. I actually think they'll be better if they play
Grimes more than four ya this year, that's without a doubt. But if
you're playing Evan four ya like a ton of minutes and he's hitting his threes,
I think the biggest question mark for them, I mean even their five
depth. Mitchell Robinson has talked about having a hook shot. Now I don't
ever want to see that. I'm just going to be clear. But he's
made some strides when you look at his discipline on defense. Isaiah Hartenstein was
one of the best pickups of the summer. And you are right, Julius
Ryandold came on a bit towards the end of the year. I think the
key is can you one can he operate more with the ball outside of his
hands? But two? Are the Knicks going to have him operate that way?
And that is the only real disaster scenario for them beyond injuries that I
would see. Like I said, I consider this making this one of my
easiest choices. Thirty eight point five seams low. But we were both probably
burned on them last year. So like or this past season, we are
on to the Orlando Magic at twenty seven and a half. This one was
daring me to say some stuff. It was. I thought about this one
for a while. I went over. I feel good about it. I
think you alluded to it when we were discussing the Pistons. I mean,
Orlando just isn't on that level, is it? And by which I mean,
like we you know, we've got a handful of tankers We've talked about
Indie, We've talked about Detroit. We talked about all the bad West teams
on the West Pod. I think Orlando's is different than those teams. I
think it's it's better. I think there's just more. There's just more talent,
there's more bank Carro. A lot hinges on bank Carro because I think
his ability to create shots for a team who just does not get good shot
creation from any of its guards generally speaking, I guess you'd throw folts in
there, but I think part of shot creation is like you can get a
shot for yourself and make it. And it's also like, oh, defenders
aren't standing fifty feet away from you, and you're not so much creating it
is dribbling into it. Yeah, so he matters. I also think have
we talked about Franz Wagner yet, Like I think him and ban Carro together,
because Wagner, I think is not is someone that we should not rule
out being. Oh he's just like a wing. Now that's enormous. I
didn't watch for everybody. I didn't watch yourro basket, but I saw some
of the highlights and I talked to Kobe Price the Orlando Sentinel. There's just
like, yeah, he was just raining hell off the dribble. No,
he was like a number one option and he looked good doing it. So,
I mean, Ben Carroll I think is sort of anointed. You know,
he's got the number one pick pedigree, and it's gonna get like a
if not first crack, like probably the lion's share of opportunities to be the
initiator. Wagner like just might be better than him. Actually, frankly as
a as a total package, considering he's in his second year, probably is
better than him right now. We'll see. But you know, I think
we both love Carter. I think he's an underrated center. I might have
gotten a little out over my skis and said he was like a guy that
I wouldn't be shocked if he made an All Star Game year about this year,
You're we're just one hundred percent right, people just go back and watch
him. But look at his numbers. It's now you've better talent around them
too, Like maybe that gives them less control or actions in the offense.
No, I'm sorry to interrupt your spot. That's all I got is the
magic have like a lot of really promising slash already very good NBA players,
So I'm going over. I don't know how many games they want to win,
and maybe they'd like to still be, you know, down there around
where we got a decent shot at the top three pick. But yeah,
they're they're just not on. They're a cut above, you know that.
What is it like six other teams I think that we've talked about as tankers
so far. They weren't easy. They weren't an easy over for me.
I think I was actually they weren't easy over. I was trying to figure
out how far to go over. I ended up at thirty because I think
there's gonna be an eventual pullback from them once they realize, hey, we're
maybe not in the plan, but this wouldn't be the team that if they're
going to outperform the Hornets Wizards, it's them more so than the Pistons.
The jail and sugs injury and Mark el Falt's being injured at the same time
worries me a little bit. I actually really thought jail And Suggs was gonna
have an amazing year when he was going to have less responsibility on offense.
Now I saw a lot of people talking about how he just needed to be
used like a point hard and I was like, that's basically how Orlando was
using him last year and that was part of the problem, aside from the
stop and startiness of his injury. So if they miss maybe it's because of
just not having that guard depth, but I think they'll I'm pretty comfortable with
the over the next team, the Philadelphia seventy six Ers at fifty point five.
I'm actually a little bit shocked and uncomfortable at how easy this was for
me. Yeah, that's such a low line. I don't know what you're
pricing in there. It's it's over for me. I think if there's a
team in the East that I think could finish ahead of Milwaukee or be at
least as dangerous as Milwaukee, it's the Sixers. Like why, like,
why why does this team win fifty games or fewer? I mean it's the
you know, the embiid gets hurt, Harden is even more washed than he
looked at points last year. I don't think either of those are super likely.
It's the hardened thing is really the actual swing point, because they need
him to be probably a top fifteen to twenty player in the NBA, and
I just I mean, he looks in better shape, so I just to
me, I think that's what's baked in, is that people really think James
Harden has done because he was dealing with injuries and wasn't in the best shape
last year, and also was playing for a new team. He wanted to
get there, let's be clear, but that's not an easy mid season adjustment
to make in general, and he wasn't in shape clearly, So I think
Harden will be better. I don't think Harden is going to be an all
NBA level player. I mean, he's no Andrew Wiggins, so let's you
know, keep that. I think if you took if you said Harden didn't
play a minute this year, I'd have a hard time saying the Sixers were
gonna win fewer than fifty one games, just because, like I think MAXI
is ready to take a leap, I mean not even a leap, like
he was really good last year. He's just gonna be a little better.
I think indeed will again just be oh man, he was so close to
MVP, Like, oh shit, why can he Like just for the third
year in a row, He's gonna be right there, Like Tobias Harris is
not nothing. De Anthony Melton is really gonna matter. PJ. Tucker's really
good, Like they just have all these house junior like even without Harden,
I don't know if you could talk me into this team being under fifty wins
or did you have to be under fifty one? So pretty darn't easy over
for me. That's and I penciled mine in already because the only thing I
can add to yours is that Maxie was so good in both roles where he
was featured without Ben Simmons. James Harden comes, he sort of uses his
third wheel and he's just annihilating people with his three pointers and his straight line
drives. He's so fast if he gets going just in that north south direction.
And so yes, if James Harden is not good, it does become
awkward because you're not gonna suddenly take the ball off his hands. For Tyree's
Maxie, there's just enough secondary talent there even with Tobias Harris on offense,
and of course Joel embiide that they should still be that pleasant, like maybe
they're not a championship contender, but oh they won fifty one games or something,
I'm like so bullish on them, and it's funny. I actually penciled
them in for oh, I have them at fifty three. It's like sort
of tied with Milwaukee and near the top. I thought I had them at
fifty one for a second. The Toronto Raptors forty six point five. Where
did you have them? This is a tough one. I went over.
My reservations are basically that you know, this is a team that was unusually
constructed and deployed unusually in that they just sort of you know, the centerless
stuff lineups that you know, they're most used lineups just like could not defensive
rebound, could not score in the half court, and they didn't really fix
any of that. So I think, what you're banking on, and I
guess what I'm banking on because I went over, is that just enough of
the guys that they need to get better will get better. I mean,
obviously that starts with Scotty Barnes, but I think you could you could bank
on other than say, I think I think, you know, even Siakam
could be just marginally better. It's released is good. There's been some murmurings
that he has like this very fluid off the dribble three right now, which
like if then, boy, that goes a long way towards solving your we
can't score in the half court stuff. I think Annaobi is just permanently on
the list of like, oh man, if he takes a little step,
you know, it's not too late for that. I'm losing some faith because
I've been calling for that for like three years. No, I think they're
They're fundamentally unchanged as a team. The hope is that they're just better at
doing the stuff that they kind of started to try to do last year schematically,
and that they have enough in other areas talking about like turnover creation and
transition offense to just sort of offset what I think again will be like a
pretty bad defensive rebounding team and a pretty bad half court team relative to like
teams that are going to win in the high forties, which I think they
will. They those are my concerns. You laid them out perfectly there for
me, and I don't know. I mean, if Scotty Barnes is able
to do stuff at a higher processing speed when it comes to his shot decision
making or just with the ball in his hands, there's been. I know
there's been talk. I haven't watched a ton of him in preseason, but
Delano Banton is apparently ready to make a leap. It's just I worry about
the ball handling and some of the shooting. Overall. You need the You
have Fred van Fleet, you have Pascal Siakam. What is Scotty Barnes in
a few years, but this is year two. You need sort of just
that faster, break everything down guy. I don't even know if necessary.
Fred van Fleet, like at Siakam, can do it. I think get
a slower processing speed. And Fred van Fleet has just like never necessarily been
that guy. He's been better when he's almost away from the ball, but
he has improved as a point guard. I want to make that clear.
And that's my biggest question. But they were right here last year and they
got better with their additions. And if Precious Chua is really this like you
know, three point shooting, switch a bowl guy who can grab the ball
and go get up the floor, They're gonna be really good. Maybe you
don't buy into their offense in the postseason, which I think is where their
half course struggles will hurt them the most. But for the regular season.
Specifically, I ended up having them. I think I had them at forty
nine wins, was at forty eight. I put them at forty nine.
It's like they could be a fifty winner for me. We are onto the
last team, which the Washington Wizards. Where did you put them with their
thirty five and a half over under? So I'm gonna need you to talk
me down a little bit. I will welcome that challenge. So I think
this. I feel like this is a pretty easy over for me. And
part of it because thirty five and a half wins is a low number they
won. They played like a thirty two win team last year, and Bill
basically had a lost their best player had a lost season more or less.
Yeah, so that's kind of my starting point. I don't think I think
I have them finishing eleventh in the conference or basically tied with the Bulls at
tenth. So it's not like I'm saying the Wizards are are going to be
even a playing team necessarily. You're actually not saying they're gonna be saying that
factually. I am not saying that. I just feel like you have Bill
back. Let's assume he's okay, right, You have Porzingis, who played
like way better for the Wizards than he did for the MAVs last year.
Tiny sample, but he played four back to backs too, and now of
course he has a sprained ankle from preseason, but like probably because he played
those four back to backs. Like right, he didn't load man him in
the seventeen years, So you know, I think we sort of agree that
the we can now say that Porzingis is not a second star on a good
team. Fortunately the Wizards are not a good team, so he's fine.
Is like your second option. I think they sort of addressed the point guard
issues they had last year when the rotation was just god awful. We like
Monte Morris, Hurst Louse KCP, but I think the combo of like your
Kuzmas and your Denny Avdias and even your Corey Kissperts if he's healthy, Like
there's some wing forward he guys there. So Obvia might be the most underrated
defender in the league just because I think everyone thinks he's bad. I'm not
saying he's not. We talked about him all the time. Yeah, that's
our I think that's our second most viewed video on YouTube. But we got
like seven thousand views. Because we talked about how good Denny Avia was on
defense, you can go check that out. I mean he is, and
he's young enough to where like just get a little more comfortable as a spot
up shooter. I think he sees the floor well and which is hugely valuable
at his size. So like there's offensive value you there that could very easily
be realized this season. And then like and then with the you know,
with his defensive ability, like suddenly you have a two way wing who can
like play make a little bit not wing slash forward. He's a little bigger.
So I just like there's tons of downside potential. Porzingis could play fifteen
games. Bill could be some combination of hurt again and beat up. But
like thirty six, they got to win thirty six to go over, and
you're in the conference with you know, Detroit and Indie and Charlotte potentially like
being really bad. I think I think there are thirty six wins out there
for them. I have him at forty, which is feels ridiculous to say,
but I'm good on the over for them. I went the over at
thirty six. I just don't think they're kind of in the similar vein of
the Knicks, where because you have Bradley Bill, maybe they will shut him
down, but maybe they won't if they're not that good, and that now
that Charlotte's pulling back and they're seeing the injuries in Chicago, they'll have incentive
to go for it. I like a lot of the players on this team,
as you outline with Mante Moore it they might even be able to come
together with some really good defensive lineups as Christopsporzinkis is healthy, Kyle Kuzmas improved
there, We've already talked about Deny Avvia Monte Morris can be solid, and
so you don't need to be able to do a ton because he really hasn't
played defense in a few years. It feels like I don't know what Ruey
hatch Moore is though. I don't know what to expect, if anything,
from Johnny Davis. Corey Kissbert was not as good offensively last year as I
was expecting him to be, so there's just a lot of question marks there.
I guess having Daniel Gafford is a backup big as huge, and then
Delon Wright being able to come off the bench, so there's depth there.
I just don't trust it to be like a five hundred team. But this
does now that after listening to you, I was supposed to talk you off
the ledge. Now I'm wondering if like I just missed on them. Maybe
the East just feels too good and I'm reading too much into the way Bradley
Beal played last season. So they're an over for me. But I don't
have them as and this would be a good time to get into like the
standings, I don't have them as a playing team either. So if we
go over here and look so our East ranks I have, we both have
Milwaukee at one. Your records aren't there, I apologize, but Philly at
two, and we both have them there. I have Cleveland at three,
Boston at four, Toronto at five, Miami at six. You have Boston
at three, Cleveland at four, Toronto at five, in Miami at six.
Because we differ just on Cleveland my seven to ten or Atlanta, Brooklyn,
New York in Chicago, Yours are also not in that order. Brooklyn
at seven, Atlanta at eight, New York at nine, in Chicago at
ten. So like you still have Washington out of the play in no big
difference is there. We have Washington as the eleventh seed, Charlotte is the
twelfth, Orlando is the thirteenth, the Troy is the fourteenth and fifth,
and India is the fifteenth. That's a consensus. So when you texted me
saying that we were eerily similar, you weren't kidding. No, I said
we were annoyingly similar. Terrible podcasting. I eat, I'm and like,
there's we're just we differ on Cleveland a little bit. We both still have
them in the top four. Like that's the only thing the West. We'll
scroll over there. This is not the Western Conference pod, but we didn't
go through it really quickly. I have the nuggets of having the best record
in the league. You had the the Bucks is having the best record in
the league. Correct, yes, fifty seven for the Bucks. I have
the Nuggets at one, Phoenix at two, Golden State at three, and
the Pelicans at four. And then you have Golden State at one, Denver
at two, Minnesota at three, and the Clippers at four. So you're
just that I know we talked about this beers that high in Minnesota just as
a regular season team. I think, yeah, we talked about it on
the West Pod people should go check it out. I just think they're built
to win a bunch of right. This isn't a hot take. I feel
like that's the consensus on them is that, man, they're gonna win some
regular season games. I will say Minnesota over the Clippers and Phoenix is a
hot take, a little bit, a little bit. So you have Phoenix
at five, Dallas at six, I have the Clippers at five, and
Mini at six. So we do have the same top s Oh no,
we don't have the same top six teams. In the West. You have
the Pelicans at eight. You have Memphis at seven, the Pelicans at eight,
the Lakers at nine, the Blazers at ten. I have Dallas at
seven, Memphis at eight, Sacktown at nine, and the Lakers at ten.
You have the Kings outside of the play in which is very interesting to
me. I have Portland outside of the play and so that's just where we
differ. And then we have Utah. I have Utah twelve, okay See
at thirteen, Houston at fourteen, San Antonio at fifteen. You have okay
See at fifteen, Houston at fourteen, Utah at thirteen, and the Spurs
at twelve. So not a a ton of huge differences there. Grant remains
wildly high. I'm Minnesota. We hope everybody enjoyed this podcast. Is your
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Grant on Twitter for his what is it Are we up to buy? Weekly?
Now tweeting? Do you think? Well, I don't know what's gonna
happen going forward. I just know I tweeted today, so you know if
something happens tomorrow. He's so Grant is either off you follow him at GT
Underscore Hughes. He's either on a tour pace to tweet, or you won't
get another tweet from him for two months. Either way, it's a win
for you because either I don't fill up your timeline or I give you like
a couple in a row and you still really blessed. The next time we
talk to close it out here, it will be because then you will be
on so Grant and he will. He might be on more, maybe there's
weeks where he's on lest but he's agreed to be around for one episode per
week and we'll try and hash out the topics as we go. I'm excited
to be podcasting in with more often. I'm enjoying the look aheads, but
it's always fun to be able to bounce this stuff off a friend who only
judges me like sixty five percent of the time rather than like eighty to ninety
percent. So we're excited. But there's we're gonna have regular season basketball to
talk about. That feels weird right, feels good. I've watched a lot
of more preseason than I care to admit so far this year. I don't
know why. I'm ready. I'm ready to actually see the real lineups.
I'm tired of the six top six guys being the DMPs later until next time
we get to shout out to the one, the only Frank Nilkina and I
guess is we have to start at adding Yeah, I'd like to apologize to Jared Allen