WEBVTT

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Hey guys, it's Jack. I
just wanted to talk to you today about

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and check us out at patreon dot
com slash the Teamhouse. Hello everyone,

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welcome to another episode, an off
cycle episode of Izon and I'm Andy Milburn.

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I'mbout dmitikon tacos. Yeah, al
most call you out there d right

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early in the morning, little,
you know, little hungover as usual,

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nothing wrong with that, but we're
missing Jason so and only you know we

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have this team. Jason will be
back. He is doing things set of

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vital international security, so you probably
don't want him on this podcast right now.

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Who knows what would happen? Uh
D I'm gonna make this very short.

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Let's do it. Okay, since
it's just met, let's chat about

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this crash, all right. There's
so much to unpack here, and just

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so that everyone up front can kind
of put the lock on the conspiracy theory

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locker, all right, not necessarily
locked up, but just just on hold

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for the moment, you know.
So let's tackle the you know, the

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the bear in the room, which
is did the Israelis do it? And

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I would say, of course I
had no, no better than anyone,

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but I would say very unlikely.
You know, Oakham's raiser. The simplest

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explanation you're I mean, you're talking
about a forty five year old US made

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helicopter. You're talking about bad weather, really bad weather, which is really

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as good as marsad Is cannot generate. They just don't have enough dry ice

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machines. All right, you've got
I mean, I think I sent you

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a picture of the terrain there.
I mean it is like being I mean,

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this was this was like in the
area of Iran that they call it.

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They call it as a Baijan.
I mean, it's as though but

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it's it is part of Iran.
The Uranians call it as a Baijan I

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believe the province. Yeah, very
steep terrain, I I have. I

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haven't been there, but I've been
nearby there in Azerbaijan, in the in

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the mountains, and I can you
know, for this to have been an

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Israeli assassination attempt, so many things, there's so many coincidences would have had

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to happen, and it's a much
easier explanation to just say, hey,

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this was an old, old helicopter. And despite the fact that that Iran

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and Indep. You know, the
President Racy, I'm going to call him

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Racy, Okay, so I don't
get corrected, presen racing. We're all

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aboard making bringing Iran firmly into the
twenty first century, you know, technology.

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But but all of this stuff was
focused on weaponry, and he could

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you know, they could do a
little about their aging inventory of equipment.

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They are trying to do something.
They are doing something now with the Iranians,

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but not enough in time to save
a bell two on two Irans,

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you mean the Russians they are getting
the Uranians are one of the one of

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their goals, or should be one
of their goals to get from the Russians

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a complete upgrade of their inventory.
I mean, this is some one of

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the most serious things we should be
worried about, I think in the Iranian

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Russian partnership. Not the implications immediate
implications for Israel or Ukraine, but implications

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through four you know, for like
the of the world basically is that Raisi

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was by all accounts, you know, yes, he was a total ship

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head, the Butcher of Tehran.
He got that nickname at the age of

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twenty. All right, Remember all
of these guys, Raci, Akman,

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Dinaja Kolmeni himself they were, and
Karnie Salami who heads yes, that is

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his name, who heads up the
IIGC. Karne heads up the Kudes force.

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All of these guys were students together, all right in the early twenties

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during the revolution. Immediate after and
after the revolution, Raisi and three other

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students were made you know, judicial
counsel whatever they called it of the Islamic

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Revolution. Between seventy nine, I
mean it was like, I'm sorry,

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nineteen eighty through eighty one, they
basically conducted a purge across the board all

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the students, you know, the
left wingers, the Marxists, the I

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mean, Marxism in the seventies among
students was normal comment. I mean,

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it really was in Europe, and
he had them executed. And this period

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is when the first kind of dark
story is about what the Islamic regime of

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Iran was going to be like.
And it wasn't just the executions. They

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were put to death, you know, therese torture. Raisi himself as a

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student participated in the torture. A
number of our Iranian dissidents who escaped have

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confirmed that. So, I mean, you know, he's he is definitely

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a shit hit, no doubt about
that. It's a good thing for the

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world and the Western order and blah
blah blah that he is gone, but

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I want to I don't think,
you know, the bottom line is this

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that a success that will be found
and and the real none of the real

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issues, uh, you know,
Iran on the rise for the reasons that

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I'm going to talk about, really
depended on racy. He was compliant.

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Not only was he compliant, but
the position as president is you know,

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obviously it depends on the personality,
but it's you know, Arkman Diniyard made

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it into something, but it's he's
really kind of a cipher, it's a

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place, it's a billet in waiting. Right, as you know he was,

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he was kind of getting scrutinized for
and and for what we're hearing was

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approved for to succeed as the Supreme
Leader for any and and just for everyone.

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I mean, I know most of
your windience understand this, but the

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Supreme Leader is exactly that. You
know, the president's kind of a figurehead.

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So when the Supreme Leader gives orders
to the IRGC or directly to Kounswals,

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which he does, it is directly
to Salami or Chary may have been

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in the room, you know,
But but he is not part of that,

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you know, that kind of operational
chain of command. Nominally he is,

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but in practice he is not.
The regime No Rasi is getting credit

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for this, and it's very interesting
to watch guys who have or read commentary

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from guys who followed him from a
long period of time. Remember when someone

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gets killed, everyone becomes an expert
on him, right, But there are

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there are a number of people you
know in the US and think tanks and

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actually a couple of Israelis who have
been following Raisi for a number of times.

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So I was very interested to hear
kind of what they say. So

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what i'm you know, what I'm
about to say is kind of a synopsis

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of those people and people have spoken
to you know, in the last day.

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It's not my brilliance, which as
you know, is an oxymoron.

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Look, so you know, under
under this kind of under this regime.

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When I say regime, I'm really
talking about Sulimani who died, you know,

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back in twenty twenty, is killed
in twenty twenty drone attack. You

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but their vision of Iran has evolved
to something pretty frightening, and they're down

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the path on that and races loss. He was part of this, but

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lossy, you know, his loss
will at the best, at the very

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best, it'll cause problems at a
succession argument. But I doubt for a

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moment that this is going to deflect
from Iranian foreign policy as is, because

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it is working beautifully for them.
They all wanted claim credit for what is

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happening right now. Now, going
back to the crash just for a minute.

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Look, the Ranians have racked up, i mean many scientific, technological,

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military achievements, but in many ways
Iran remains backward. You know,

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Infrastructure is not sophisticated, and Iran's
got a long history of air accidents.

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I mean, for all the reasons
we've given the sanctions, it's PHAs for

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years, I've left it really no
choice but to cannibalize any of its American

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made airplanes helicopters which were purchased of
course when the Shahs still so they've got

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to cannibalize things for the spare pass. That's the way you've been doing,

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all right. They haven't think about
it have been you know, the training,

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the upgrades and all that hasn't been
happening, all right. So you

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know, again getting back to this
accident in the regime where the rulers decide

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everything, you know, when those
systems exist for investigating failures, because failure

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doesn't say no one can challenge the
decisions of you know, the administration.

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What accidents are gonna happen more often? Right, I mean that, you

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know, And that's and of course, nevertheless, none of this wall will

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kill the conspiracy theories. But what
what I'm really talking about is kind of

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the ring of fire strategy, which
was formulated by General Solomani okay, and

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that the ring of fire strategy sorts
surround Israel with militias, non Iranians,

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non Persians, so expendable surround Israel
with militias, arm with tens of thousands

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of rockets and missiles, and it's
been bearing fruit. You know, it

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really has Israel is in the ring
of fire and UH and the level of

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coordination between Iran and its proxies between
Iran, now China, Russia has stepped

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up. You know, Israel obviously
suffered a severe blow on seven October and

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since then has you know, is
basically caught in a strategic trap on several

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fronts, to include it's domestic front. Right, the Iranians are doing very

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well, and you know, the
Israeli Saudi normalization agreement, which Tehran was

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afraid of, it's been frozen.
Uh and and Washington's acting cautiously towards the

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Iranians something This isn't a criticism out
of concern that they're going to restart their

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UK weapons program, which of course
they already have. So you know,

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the question is who is the question
who's going to succeed them? Isn't isn't

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that interesting? Honestly, The question
is what happens in you know, in

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the lead up to that is it
going to cause riffs within the regime?

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You know there are Again I'm arguing, I'm arguing there was not that important,

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you know, he was he I'm
arguing that that him gone, it

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doesn't make a difference because the regime
is can continue Sulamani's ring a fire policy,

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which was proving very, very useful. But what Raisi arguably brought to

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the scene, I don't. I
mean, this is what some people say.

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I don't. I'm not sure this
is true. I think this is

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what the regime has just arrived at, you know, realized the last few

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years, and he was a major
supporter of times with Russia and China.

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He believed that Iran's future was in
the East, not dealing with the West.

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He didn't care about reviving the Iran
Deal or going to Vienna. It's

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a glad hand, you know,
other diplomats. He wanted to encourage a

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new regional, a new world order
based on Iran sell in the Middle East,

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you know. And so I mean
it seems to be forming, that's

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for sure. Yeah, yeah,
I mean, you know, he's the

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new China, Russia Iran world order
is it's really you know, it's set

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up for business. I mean,
Iran's already exporting drunks to Russia. They're

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in they're doing joint naval drills.
And what is probably going to happen next

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if the Uranians have any sense,
they're going to try and do a deal

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with the Russians. I'm sure the
Russians would love to give them these things.

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But you know, S four hundreds
Iran, that's that's a big deal

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for Ran to have. I mean, their air defense systems are a weak

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point, so to get upgraded weapons
systems would be Does that include fighters too,

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like new fighters or yeah, s
U s U thirty fives, which

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are very you know, they Russians
cutting edge, basically very capable fighter.

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They're the ones who've been doing the
most of the work lobbying live bombs,

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a lot of the work helping li
bombs in Ukraine. Yeah, so,

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I mean, what's kind of interesting
the race he was he was pleased to

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see China help broke a reconciliation with
Saudi Arabia, but it wasn't because he

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was really you know, Saudi Arabia
is very important to him, but certainly

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having China step in. The Uranians
hate Saudi Arabia. But the hit Israel

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more. They want to isolate is
around the West by bringing Iran closer to

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the Arab States. And that is
and you know, for the Arab States,

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Saudi Arabia, UA in particular,
they're happy to hold their nose and

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push ahead for economic reasons. They
want to be you know, Iran would

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love to bring Syria back to the
Arab League. I remember Iran's being supporting

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the Assad regime there and and that
may happen, you know, I mean,

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the Arab League is kind of realizing
Heysaad's going to be around for much

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longer, and with all this shit
going on Gaza, do we really want

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to cut you know, a a
country like Syria out of the league.

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So it's you know, it's it's
tough to say. I think all of

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that will continue. I think that
nothing in the Iranian regimes decided by one

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person except for Solomoni or you know, a guy like I mean Commene or

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a guy like Solomony. Racey was
not one of those guys. But nevertheless,

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but Racey was also like on he
was gonna possibly succeed the Iaola.

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Well yeah, exactly right, Okay, So so what is important about arac

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and what is important about what he
has seen to support and advocate for is

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exactly that his position at succession because
what he you know, he's what he's

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going to broadcast and trumpet to the
world is going to be the regimes basically

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their policy right right in the next
decade or so. And he knows that

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and he's setting it up. So
that is why these things that I'm saying

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are important, not because rac is
behind them, but because they represent a

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I think, you know, we
can we can kind of glean what Iranian

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policy is. And the iatola is
kind of like on the way out right.

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I've been saying he's been battling cancer
for like ever now. Uh yeah,

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but you know, it's just hard
to tell these yeah, fucking iotolas.

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By the way, Oh gosh,
I haven't again trouble when I say

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fucking aotola. I just mean these
bad ones. Okay. Sure. The

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point is this that they, yeah, they don't drink, right, so

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they live much longer. This is
a problem. This is why they have

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an advantage on us. They live
a pretty good lifestyle, right, you

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know, they I mean, they're
not hanging out in the bronx with all

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the risk of but you know,
and yes they are resilient. They seem

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to grow, so you can't bet
on him dying anytime soon. But yes,

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he is getting old and if if
he does indeed have cancer, yeah,

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this is going to be a real
friend. So now now that race

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is gone, like who's the who's
the next, Like who's on the short

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list? Yeah, so believe it
or not. Akman Dinner is one of

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the guys. There's about three or
four guys, all right, the names

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won't mean anything to anyone, but
former present, really hardliner. Yeah,

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he's you know, he's he's one. There's a there's a guy called,

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uh, the Revolutionary God has a
candidate. Okay, he's a guy named

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I'm gonna mispronounce it like Golam right
in the hobbit, Yeah, Golam Hussein

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Mossini. All right, sorry,
he is not the Revolutionary God guy.

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He's he's a judge. Of course, there's no problems in Iran with combining.

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But but the Revolutionary Guard also has
their own candidate, a guy named

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Koalabath, and no one knows much
about him except that he is, you

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know, his IRGC. So you
know, there are things happening behind the

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scenes that even the best Iran watches
aren't sure what is going on. You

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know, in the end, Homini
decides who the candidates are, and he's

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likely Iran watches think to disqualify everyone
except for one guy. And no one

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knows who that guy is going to
be. It's not like it's a fucking

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vote, but you know, it
remains to be seen if he can,

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if he can contain the power struggle, if there is one intra you know,

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kind of the intra elite power struggle
with in Iran and UH and and

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manages to find another RASI what is
he looking for. He's looking for a

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00:18:56.359 --> 00:19:00.279
kind of a malleable yes man,
devoid of any independent ideas. Okay,

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So I mean that sounds like the
first line on my fitness report. Someone

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someone who executes the leaders will and
is blamed for the regime shortcomings, you

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know he was. I mean,
that's exactly it. And I mean the

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when we mentioned an IRGC candidate though
we've got to remember the IRGC, of

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course. I mean it's an understatement, wields a huge amount of power with

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an alarm and so the only,
uh, the only possible challenge to a

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00:19:36.839 --> 00:19:40.880
Komanity choice would be if the ILGC
decides that they really want their guy and

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Comine chooses someone else. But I
mean, who knows. We're speculating here,

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that's that's the best we could hope. So my my point is though

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that this we need to be worried
not about who succeeds RASI, but about

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countering the Iranian regime strategy, which
is proving, as I've said, to

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be you know, very he was
successful, you know, just I mean,

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just just some other examples, and
it just shows that arguably the Iranians

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are thinking more strategically than our own
leadership. They don't have to worry about

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00:20:12.680 --> 00:20:18.920
elections, Okay, I mean Racey
was He was a big believer. And

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you can when I say this,
you have to say, see where he

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00:20:22.839 --> 00:20:26.440
visits, all right, I mean
he visited Russia four or five times and

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00:20:26.559 --> 00:20:33.920
talked to talk to Putin, right, he was you know, he when

243
00:20:34.000 --> 00:20:38.440
the US pulled out of the camp
and when the US was just fucking kicked

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00:20:38.480 --> 00:20:45.240
out of Afghanistan and that awful debacle
a couple of years ago. Of course,

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00:20:45.319 --> 00:20:48.480
that was more good news for him
on and Racey was the one who

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00:20:48.519 --> 00:20:52.799
was very vocal in leading the you
know, kind of the cabinet in that

247
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direction. That's how it appeared,
but it's probably you know again, it's

248
00:20:56.640 --> 00:21:00.839
they all knew what the strategy was, and the strategy was that now Iran

249
00:21:00.920 --> 00:21:07.559
could take over operate more clearly across
the region and by connecting with India and

250
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Pakistan and Central Asian all right,
Iran can walk that line and reach out

251
00:21:12.920 --> 00:21:15.759
and and none of those countries are
gonna have any problems for dealing with Iran

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00:21:15.799 --> 00:21:25.279
because they had done before and the
Caucuses, right, But so so the

253
00:21:25.359 --> 00:21:32.400
power struggle his you know, the
power his his the dichotomy or in the

254
00:21:32.480 --> 00:21:37.480
power struggle. It's a power struggle, but it's a power struggle to find

255
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a weak compliance successor will continue you
know, continue the regimes, nuclear regional

256
00:21:41.759 --> 00:21:48.799
proxy strategy. And that's that's about
it, honestly. And it's kind of

257
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crazy to think, uh that would
this be going on at to this level

258
00:21:53.599 --> 00:21:59.480
if Saddam Hussein or some kind of
other bath party was still in Iraq.

259
00:22:00.599 --> 00:22:03.880
I know, I know, no, I mean, you know, one

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one of one of the things is
that in US forum policy is that well

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this is you know, I'm not
going to launch it now monologue. But

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but the problem is simply there's a
lot of things we mirror image. Okay,

263
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we are still trapped by some of
our Cold War preconceptions. And in

264
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the end, however, smart the
think tankers are. They're in Washington,

265
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d c. And they grew up
in American or British Western backgrounds, and

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they that that that is a huge
obstacle, I think, and that is

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why we, you know, we
often misjudge. We don't understand Iran.

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You know, some some commentators think
that are determined to pit Iran against Turkey,

269
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all right, because that would be
useful for us. In fact,

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in fact, Iran and Racy was
again he's visited Anchorage. He wanted closer

271
00:22:55.039 --> 00:22:57.839
ties with Turkey, and Turkey sent
over drones and stuff to help work for

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00:22:57.880 --> 00:23:03.400
their helicopter. That's that's who found
the helicopter based on the country. Yeah,

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that's right. And by the way, that and guess what sort of

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drone that was? What it wasn't
a It was a d j I.

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Oh wow, Yeah, it was
a d j I. Forget uh,

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one of those commercial drones like the
little ones. Yeah, it's hold.

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00:23:19.839 --> 00:23:23.119
I'm trying to look it up,
it's the one with someone will tell us

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00:23:23.519 --> 00:23:27.559
it's the one with the thermal it's
got it's like a three mt or something

279
00:23:27.680 --> 00:23:32.799
empty, it's got the thermal camera. I saw, I saw the video

280
00:23:32.839 --> 00:23:37.880
they were cycling through the different video
feeds. Oh yeah, yeah, so

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00:23:38.880 --> 00:23:42.359
but yeah they I mean that was
a great example. I mean they've got

282
00:23:42.640 --> 00:23:47.720
you know, Ryan had to borrow
a drone for this, uh, this

283
00:23:47.880 --> 00:23:52.839
particular. They don't they don't use
drones for a connaissance. Why would they

284
00:23:52.920 --> 00:23:56.440
use drones for a connaissance, right, I mean, yeah, they use

285
00:23:56.519 --> 00:24:02.079
them for strip So I think,
you know what, we're just going to

286
00:24:02.119 --> 00:24:06.519
see continuation of the Ranian policy.
We're going to continue to see this kind

287
00:24:06.559 --> 00:24:11.640
of unprecedented move by Iran to shift
the Middle East and to ingratiate itself with

288
00:24:11.880 --> 00:24:15.119
with you know, the Gulf of
Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Egypt too.

289
00:24:15.200 --> 00:24:21.799
By the way, Iranians have been
in talks with memory Turkey, Russia,

290
00:24:22.079 --> 00:24:26.279
China. Look, I mean who's
getting isolated here? Yeah? Right?

291
00:24:26.640 --> 00:24:32.440
You know is Israel more isolated?
Is the United States perhaps losing its its

292
00:24:32.559 --> 00:24:38.200
traction as Iran builds up this you
know this, this I won't say an

293
00:24:38.200 --> 00:24:44.279
alliance but certainly a lot of non
aligned countries are going to have dealings with

294
00:24:44.359 --> 00:24:49.079
Iran, which means, right,
which reduces our ability to impose maximum pressure.

295
00:24:49.240 --> 00:24:53.880
Right. Look, I mean a
regional order like this one isn't due

296
00:24:53.880 --> 00:24:59.720
to Race, isn't due to one
man. And and Rayci was an interest

297
00:24:59.799 --> 00:25:03.319
in particularly interesting or innovative or I
mentioned a person. He was pragmatic and

298
00:25:03.440 --> 00:25:08.440
cautious, which is how he survived. But he had a vision that was

299
00:25:08.519 --> 00:25:14.440
clear. And and and those you
know, those who were working with him,

300
00:25:14.480 --> 00:25:18.640
like his foreign minister whose name I
forget, and the IRGC, they're

301
00:25:18.680 --> 00:25:22.200
all saying in the same direction.
And that is what we should be we

302
00:25:22.279 --> 00:25:29.160
should be worried about. You know, the merging of various proxies focus on

303
00:25:29.319 --> 00:25:33.160
Israel. Of course is it is
a big deal, not just for Israel,

304
00:25:33.240 --> 00:25:37.400
but I mean, well, but
it said it could potentially be an

305
00:25:37.400 --> 00:25:45.680
existential issue for Israel. And you
know, Race's legacy was always you know,

306
00:25:45.720 --> 00:25:47.920
as he came in, he said, we're going to get more support

307
00:25:48.000 --> 00:25:52.039
to the Hufis and Palestinians. Very
interestingly, all right, that was not

308
00:25:52.559 --> 00:25:56.799
you know that that was not something
the Iranians went on about a lot prior

309
00:25:56.880 --> 00:26:02.200
to that was Palestinians. He didn't
you know, he and the and his

310
00:26:02.480 --> 00:26:07.000
ministers, I mean, they didn't
know the date of seven uh seven October

311
00:26:07.079 --> 00:26:12.000
attack, but they doubtedly knew something
was gonna something was going on that there

312
00:26:12.079 --> 00:26:17.759
was a small attack. And you
remember it's the ILGC that put the architecture

313
00:26:17.799 --> 00:26:22.119
in the region, put together the
architecture in the region that enabled that attack.

314
00:26:22.200 --> 00:26:26.079
And it could have been much much
worse if they had signaled to her

315
00:26:26.160 --> 00:26:33.319
mask to join in. And then
remember right after the attacks, Rayci went

316
00:26:33.400 --> 00:26:38.720
to Doha where he met with Hamas
leadership and anchoror by the way, where

317
00:26:38.759 --> 00:26:45.799
both Erdowan and he met with Hammas
leadership. So certainly no, you know,

318
00:26:47.079 --> 00:26:56.839
you know, they very yeah,
very pragmatic in that sense, not

319
00:26:56.519 --> 00:27:00.880
you know, not driven to make
mistakes by absurd eye geology. Yeah.

320
00:27:02.880 --> 00:27:07.599
So anyway, I heard it,
like so in terms of like gods and

321
00:27:07.960 --> 00:27:17.319
Hamas, I've heard like Egypt's intel
is pretty heavy into like supporting Hamas,

322
00:27:18.319 --> 00:27:21.880
Like there are parts of that that
are like pretty so there's like Iran when

323
00:27:21.880 --> 00:27:26.200
they want to get you know,
whether it's weapons or rockets or money to

324
00:27:26.359 --> 00:27:32.400
Hamas, do they run it through
Egypt and like Egypt. Uh so,

325
00:27:32.680 --> 00:27:36.599
oh you mean money going in or
support of any kind really? Yeah?

326
00:27:36.680 --> 00:27:42.079
Yeah, so support. So the
Qataris were open in frank the Israeli government

327
00:27:42.240 --> 00:27:48.880
assisted the Kataris and providing suitcases and
money to Hamas, right, so there

328
00:27:48.960 --> 00:27:56.359
was a very open thing there.
The Iranians too were getting ah R getting

329
00:27:56.480 --> 00:28:07.079
stuff to Harmas via the tunnels.
But also interestingly enough, they have been

330
00:28:07.960 --> 00:28:12.880
sending stuff to her Mass, not
not not any of the West Bank routes,

331
00:28:12.920 --> 00:28:19.519
but her Mass via the West Bank. Okay via Jordan, but the

332
00:28:19.839 --> 00:28:27.279
but they were an Iranian ir G
c ring as it were. Was the

333
00:28:27.599 --> 00:28:34.480
Jordanian intelligence recently just broke into that. So yeah, they were, They

334
00:28:34.559 --> 00:28:38.200
weren't the biggest. They don't have
a lot of money. That's not the

335
00:28:38.279 --> 00:28:42.960
way they contribute. They contribute through
proxy support and all that. It's the

336
00:28:44.039 --> 00:28:48.759
big pockets of katar and Turkish money
too. And you know, I'm not

337
00:28:48.799 --> 00:28:55.240
saying it's well, yeah, absolutely, I mean one a lot of people

338
00:28:55.519 --> 00:28:59.359
not even supported. A lot of
people find remember her mask was the government

339
00:28:59.519 --> 00:29:06.000
in no other way of getting money
to Palestinians other than via the Mass government.

340
00:29:06.400 --> 00:29:12.400
Yeah, but yeah, I'm sorry
no, no, no, yeah,

341
00:29:12.440 --> 00:29:15.799
So that's I mean, that's that's
pretty much it, you know,

342
00:29:15.960 --> 00:29:18.640
elsewhere, and I think, you
know, we can probably talk about it

343
00:29:19.680 --> 00:29:25.279
next week or on the next one. You know, there's there's stuff going

344
00:29:25.519 --> 00:29:33.279
on in Israel is truly strange and
quite disturbing. So you're quite disturbing.

345
00:29:33.319 --> 00:29:37.240
I mean, yes, thirty,
I mean all the thousands, thousands of

346
00:29:37.240 --> 00:29:40.319
people dead. I don't mean to
underplay that, but my point is you've

347
00:29:40.400 --> 00:29:45.880
got within you've got it. You've
got some kind of domestic crisis going on

348
00:29:45.000 --> 00:29:48.319
in the political cabinet. Okay,
you've got military leaders who are saying,

349
00:29:48.359 --> 00:29:52.559
hey, we're losing dies again.
All right, they don't you know,

350
00:29:52.640 --> 00:29:55.960
they don't care about Palestinians across it
onions, but hey, we're losing our

351
00:29:56.039 --> 00:30:00.720
diyes. You know, another four
Israeli soldiers killed over the weekend in areas

352
00:30:00.839 --> 00:30:03.960
that we've already cleared, Jibeia,
which is part of Gaza. This is

353
00:30:04.480 --> 00:30:10.759
in November. The IDF declared,
hey, we've cleared this area. The

354
00:30:10.839 --> 00:30:15.359
Brigade Command division commander at the time
said Hamas is no more well har Maas

355
00:30:15.960 --> 00:30:19.480
is. They've popped up. They
are operating strongly enough to fire rockets from

356
00:30:19.519 --> 00:30:26.359
there towards esh Kalan and an attack
Israeli units. And now the Israelis have

357
00:30:26.480 --> 00:30:32.559
just sent in two brigades into that
area that they've already cleared. Same thing

358
00:30:33.119 --> 00:30:38.119
with Zaytun, same thing across Rafa. Israeli intelligence it's saying Hamas is seizing

359
00:30:38.200 --> 00:30:45.880
control again in Camas Gaza. So
you've got you've got this catastrophic thing they

360
00:30:45.759 --> 00:30:51.519
are, you know, thirty five
thousand Palestinian deaths, the twelve hundred Israeli

361
00:30:51.680 --> 00:30:59.200
death to no end, to no
end, right, I mean, Hamas

362
00:30:59.279 --> 00:31:02.160
is as strong as this is what
people were trying to tell the Israelis.

363
00:31:02.519 --> 00:31:10.279
You don't you've learned from our mistakes, guys, right, you don't annihilate

364
00:31:10.680 --> 00:31:17.440
a canterinsurgency. Now why just killing
everyone? And the Israelis don't talk about

365
00:31:17.519 --> 00:31:22.039
counterinsurgency. Everyone is a terrorist,
Everyone is a terrorist. You know,

366
00:31:22.279 --> 00:31:26.960
everything is counter terrorist. So they
don't understand. They don't their counterinsurgency doctrine.

367
00:31:26.960 --> 00:31:32.599
Someone wrote it. Someone I know
actually wrote a counterinsurgency doctrine for them

368
00:31:32.680 --> 00:31:37.279
twenty years ago and it was never
published, it was shelved. But you

369
00:31:37.359 --> 00:31:41.720
know, operational commanders managed to get
hold of copies. But it talks about

370
00:31:41.759 --> 00:31:44.400
clear and hold, talks about all
the things that we do, but the

371
00:31:44.480 --> 00:31:48.039
Israeli military isn't trained to do that. Everything is counter terror everything. Yeah,

372
00:31:48.160 --> 00:31:52.279
that's why they have free fire zones
and this and that, and they

373
00:31:52.400 --> 00:31:59.480
stack it, I mean they But
that's not even the real problem. The

374
00:31:59.559 --> 00:32:04.599
problem is again there is no there
are no political goals. I mean,

375
00:32:04.680 --> 00:32:07.279
I mean, sorry, there are
there are no real strategic goals now that

376
00:32:07.480 --> 00:32:14.680
makes sense, right, And within
the cabinet or or or within you know,

377
00:32:14.759 --> 00:32:22.839
Israeli government, there are those within
who believe that that Netnyahu wants to

378
00:32:22.920 --> 00:32:25.680
settle Gaza. In fact, it
isn't just a kind of conspiracy room.

379
00:32:25.839 --> 00:32:30.720
Israeli papers came out that was an
op ed today that look, this is

380
00:32:30.799 --> 00:32:37.680
why there's no plan for the day
after, because Netanyahu and Smoldrich and Ben

381
00:32:37.720 --> 00:32:43.279
Givere and and that you know ultra
right wing loonies have a plan. And

382
00:32:43.400 --> 00:32:49.200
sure enough, if you look in
the opening clause of the basic guidelines for

383
00:32:49.319 --> 00:32:52.119
the current government. I don't read
he group, but someone translated this for

384
00:32:52.240 --> 00:32:57.319
me. The first opening clause is
the Jewish people have an exclusive, exclusive

385
00:32:57.599 --> 00:33:02.640
and indisputable right to all areas the
land of Israel. Okay, so yeah,

386
00:33:02.680 --> 00:33:07.519
they interpret the land of Israel as
being from the sea to the sea.

387
00:33:07.160 --> 00:33:10.759
So now you have a problem,
right, A lot of angst about

388
00:33:12.000 --> 00:33:15.079
students chanting that the Israelis may not
chant it, but that's what they mean,

389
00:33:15.359 --> 00:33:21.759
right, you know. So it's
just seems like an impossible situation.

390
00:33:21.920 --> 00:33:27.160
I mean, even if even if
the general's mutiny and deposed Netanyahu, he's

391
00:33:27.279 --> 00:33:31.240
not the problem. He represents,
sadly in many ways, the wishes of

392
00:33:31.279 --> 00:33:36.519
the Israeli people who don't want a
two state solution. I'm not arguing either

393
00:33:36.599 --> 00:33:38.440
way. I'm saying that this is
a really hard problem, right, and

394
00:33:38.519 --> 00:33:44.000
if anything's going to come out of
this fucking sorry mess, anything at all,

395
00:33:44.559 --> 00:33:51.519
it isn't a half half assed Israeli
victory that turns into a dreadful counterinsurgency

396
00:33:51.640 --> 00:33:57.480
that other people have to you know, govern because He's right, If anything

397
00:33:57.519 --> 00:34:00.440
positive, it's going to be a
solution, right, It's going to be

398
00:34:00.599 --> 00:34:06.640
something that that that may not please
both you know, all Israelis and all

399
00:34:06.680 --> 00:34:10.599
Palestinians, but that prevents this type
of thing happening again. And that and

400
00:34:10.719 --> 00:34:16.719
that solution from the US perspective isn't
going to be just an israelis state,

401
00:34:17.159 --> 00:34:22.000
right, So you see this is
where our national interests totally converge. Yeah,

402
00:34:22.480 --> 00:34:28.840
completely converge, converge, And so
all these lunatics, you know that

403
00:34:29.440 --> 00:34:31.880
here in this country, like the
real you know, religious I'm not talking

404
00:34:31.960 --> 00:34:37.119
about people you know, who like
me, have an affection of the state

405
00:34:37.159 --> 00:34:39.480
of Israel and blah blah blah.
Yes, of course, I'm talking about

406
00:34:39.480 --> 00:34:44.639
the right wing lunatics who never who've
never been even to the Middle East,

407
00:34:44.679 --> 00:34:47.440
let alone Israel, whose knowledge of
the world comes from the Bible. You

408
00:34:47.559 --> 00:34:52.639
know those lunatics. Well, I
mean like evangelicals for the most part,

409
00:34:52.800 --> 00:34:59.119
like more like fanatical Christians are so
pro Israel because they they essentially think that

410
00:34:59.239 --> 00:35:02.280
like Israel and Jews are keeping it
warm for us. Yeah. But I

411
00:35:02.360 --> 00:35:06.480
mean, you know what it is, this kind of religious weirdness has no

412
00:35:06.639 --> 00:35:09.679
place in American politics. I agree. Okay, Look, I come from

413
00:35:09.719 --> 00:35:14.239
a country where religion and politics were
combined, and they do it quite well,

414
00:35:14.360 --> 00:35:17.400
the United Kingdom. But the United
States we have made we you know,

415
00:35:17.960 --> 00:35:22.159
founding fault. It's made a determined
decision back then, not that you

416
00:35:22.239 --> 00:35:28.719
know that to separate the two church
and state. But these lunatics keep coming

417
00:35:28.800 --> 00:35:34.000
back and trying to conflate it enforce
they're weird. There were no dinosaur views

418
00:35:34.320 --> 00:35:40.519
on the rest of the population,
right right, so many, So that's

419
00:35:40.559 --> 00:35:45.039
it. It's scary. It's scary
really because like the lack of logical reasoning

420
00:35:45.159 --> 00:35:52.639
behind it is we need a little
bit of pragmatity, pragmatic pragmatism, because

421
00:35:52.559 --> 00:35:57.079
yeah, the way it's going right
now, how are they going to like

422
00:35:57.280 --> 00:36:00.800
Israel? How are they gonna they're
really going to sense that into Gaza?

423
00:36:00.440 --> 00:36:05.159
What happens to the two million people. There's no doubt that the you know,

424
00:36:05.320 --> 00:36:07.000
that that's what they wanted. Well, there's no doubt that there are

425
00:36:07.159 --> 00:36:09.519
people who want to do that,
yes, right, and that the government

426
00:36:09.679 --> 00:36:15.440
represents those people. I mean they
do. They represent those people because that's

427
00:36:15.480 --> 00:36:17.880
how they got to power in that
coalition. That's just you know, so

428
00:36:19.039 --> 00:36:22.719
who knows. Can we talk a
little bit about I think I see yeah,

429
00:36:22.880 --> 00:36:31.119
yeah, so the International Criminal Court
passed out I guess, uh indictments

430
00:36:31.239 --> 00:36:37.519
right for Hamas leadership Netnia who and
his defenseman is like alant Look, I'll

431
00:36:37.519 --> 00:36:42.239
tell you why. I don't think
This is a good idea because you just

432
00:36:43.000 --> 00:36:50.840
just made martyrs within Israel and Elsewhereho
and Galan right right now. You know,

433
00:36:50.880 --> 00:36:53.559
I've seen this happen before when they've
done this to US commanders who probably

434
00:36:53.559 --> 00:36:59.039
should have been tried under the u
CMJ. Now the military closes ranks or

435
00:36:59.280 --> 00:37:01.280
you know, to protect them,
and that's what's going to happen. All

436
00:37:01.360 --> 00:37:05.840
right, Look, there's you don't
have to make a big fan for about

437
00:37:06.559 --> 00:37:10.840
what happened. But but but the
way to get the way to show the

438
00:37:12.079 --> 00:37:17.599
absolute moral bankruptcy of Netanyahu and his
cronies is to you know, write about

439
00:37:17.639 --> 00:37:23.119
it and publicize it and inform inform
the American public and the world and the

440
00:37:23.239 --> 00:37:27.360
Israeli public or that, you know. I mean, that is the way

441
00:37:27.440 --> 00:37:30.280
to do it, not hand out
a meaningless warrant and turn him into something.

442
00:37:30.280 --> 00:37:35.199
He's joking about it, right,
Bengavie is asking why he didn't get

443
00:37:35.239 --> 00:37:37.000
one. I mean, that's how
they think of this. This is a

444
00:37:37.079 --> 00:37:42.440
badge of honor to them. I
mean, how short sighted can we be?

445
00:37:42.679 --> 00:37:45.079
We just get it's like giving him
a Nobel Prize for you know,

446
00:37:45.159 --> 00:37:49.639
I mean that's exactly. Yeah,
that's why that's how I feel. Just

447
00:37:49.760 --> 00:37:52.199
leave him alone, you know,
I mean, not leave him alone.

448
00:37:52.199 --> 00:37:54.400
I mean, don't don't eulogize him. Don't turn them into something he isn't

449
00:37:55.239 --> 00:38:00.480
he's anyway. Okay, all right, that is old. D Okay,

450
00:38:00.719 --> 00:38:05.159
listen, guys, do me a
favor, like and subscribe if you're listening

451
00:38:05.199 --> 00:38:08.440
on audio, Rate and review it. Patreon dot com slash the Teamhouse.

452
00:38:08.840 --> 00:38:14.840
I swear to god, I'm not
lying that YouTube's money. They've crushed us.

453
00:38:15.000 --> 00:38:17.599
It's down about eighty percent. I
don't know why because our views are

454
00:38:17.599 --> 00:38:22.239
still around the same and our watch
hours. But that's a little inside inside

455
00:38:22.280 --> 00:38:25.639
baseball. Patreon dot com Slash the
Teamhouse. The link is in the description.

456
00:38:25.800 --> 00:38:30.000
Andy's books. Link is in the
description. Is substacks in the description.

457
00:38:30.960 --> 00:38:34.000
Is Twitter is in the description Everything
you want to find Andy Milburn,

458
00:38:34.519 --> 00:38:37.239
go to the description of this video
or this I've got to take a look

459
00:38:37.239 --> 00:38:40.039
at that, Yeah, and check
them out. His book is great,

460
00:38:40.119 --> 00:38:45.559
it's I've read it. It's it's
incredible. Yeah. I did that graphic

461
00:38:45.719 --> 00:38:47.519
version for you, D and I
think that was that was worth it.

462
00:38:47.639 --> 00:38:52.119
Yeah, all right, everyone see
you in a few days. Take ca