1 00:00:15,160 --> 00:00:19,920 What is up, fellow thermonuclear A efforts. I am Dan Favalley coming at 2 00:00:20,000 --> 00:00:26,559 you with the hashtag return of co host Grant Hughes at gt underscore Hughes on 3 00:00:26,600 --> 00:00:30,559 Twitter. He is back because it's time to go through over and under his 4 00:00:30,679 --> 00:00:33,840 four A conference. We did not specify, so I'm gonna specify right now. 5 00:00:33,840 --> 00:00:37,280 It's the Western Conference. We're gonna begin with very quickly, though. 6 00:00:37,320 --> 00:00:40,039 Before we dive in, please remember to rate, review, and subscribe to 7 00:00:40,079 --> 00:00:43,399 this podcast wherever you consume it. If you've not checked out our YouTube channel 8 00:00:43,439 --> 00:00:46,960 or you're watching this on YouTube, please hit that subscribe button. Liking comments 9 00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:50,280 help help the algorithm, love us back and cross pollinate. If you're on 10 00:00:50,320 --> 00:00:54,119 YouTube, go to Spotify and Apple and subscribe and download every episode. Conversely, 11 00:00:54,280 --> 00:00:56,840 if you're on Spotify and Apple listening to us right now wherever else you 12 00:00:56,840 --> 00:01:00,159 get the pod, go to YouTube subscribe there. To help us continue to 13 00:01:00,159 --> 00:01:03,200 grow the community, join our discord. The link to that is in the 14 00:01:03,240 --> 00:01:07,239 podcast and YouTube descriptions. Both follow our socials. Those are in the podcast 15 00:01:07,280 --> 00:01:11,719 and YouTube descriptions as well. And if you have not, we're wrapping up 16 00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:14,640 world. We're two thirds of the way done with our NBA team look Ahead 17 00:01:14,840 --> 00:01:19,519 series, which will be done by or on Opening night. Download Wise, 18 00:01:19,519 --> 00:01:23,680 those podcasts have been a fucking disaster and even viewwise on YouTube, but they've 19 00:01:23,719 --> 00:01:26,200 been very instructive, and so if you're a fan of one team, I 20 00:01:26,280 --> 00:01:29,799 highly encourage you checking out bouncing around for some some other teams, not just 21 00:01:29,840 --> 00:01:33,680 so that Grant and I can continue rolling in name brand no show socks as 22 00:01:33,680 --> 00:01:37,560 well. But with all that out of the way, we get to the 23 00:01:37,599 --> 00:01:40,599 question everyone's been dying to know, Grant, how the heck are you doing. 24 00:01:41,159 --> 00:01:42,400 I'm doing great, I'm glad to be back. I'm glad to talk 25 00:01:42,439 --> 00:01:49,200 to you about over unders and I did. I did cheat and listen to 26 00:01:49,400 --> 00:01:53,280 a previous PODGI did about wind total. So this isn't competitive, but if 27 00:01:53,280 --> 00:01:57,959 it was, I would be very ready to compete. That was I realized 28 00:01:57,000 --> 00:02:00,280 that was smashing the over on every single look Ahead podcast, and I was 29 00:02:00,319 --> 00:02:04,879 like, you need to sit down and like actually start committing. And I 30 00:02:04,920 --> 00:02:07,599 promise more prep work went into this than my intro, where it was, 31 00:02:07,640 --> 00:02:09,120 oh, which conference are we going to do? Let's do the West. 32 00:02:10,479 --> 00:02:15,879 I respected the spontaneity of that, though, how harbor are these for you 33 00:02:15,280 --> 00:02:19,960 this year. Uh, there were a hand there were a handful that were 34 00:02:20,000 --> 00:02:23,080 I mean, they're always kind of hard because the number always looks pretty good 35 00:02:23,120 --> 00:02:27,240 for obvious reasons, you know, because there's a lot of very smart people 36 00:02:27,280 --> 00:02:30,759 that set these lines, and it's hard to really in most cases talk yourself 37 00:02:30,800 --> 00:02:35,599 off of being like a win or two away from that number. And I 38 00:02:35,680 --> 00:02:38,560 mostly failed in trying to be more than a win or two away from a 39 00:02:38,560 --> 00:02:42,840 lot of these. I do think where it is difficult is is I think, 40 00:02:42,879 --> 00:02:45,400 like you when you when I went back and looked, I just was 41 00:02:45,680 --> 00:02:51,319 optimistic. There were there were too many wins for it to be like actually 42 00:02:51,319 --> 00:02:57,360 possible over a full NBA season. And so I think, you know, 43 00:02:57,439 --> 00:03:00,439 I guess yes and no. So yeah, because like I obviously I'm not 44 00:03:00,479 --> 00:03:06,240 gonna you know, generally be smarter than oddsmakers, uh, with a couple 45 00:03:06,240 --> 00:03:08,919 of exceptions for like public teams. I think, But yeah, no, 46 00:03:09,000 --> 00:03:12,560 I think. But what I do think is it's a great exercise because it 47 00:03:12,560 --> 00:03:15,400 makes it forces you to sort of justify and put a number on something and 48 00:03:15,439 --> 00:03:20,360 then kind of run through like why it does or doesn't make sense. And 49 00:03:20,439 --> 00:03:23,080 I will say I don't recommend anyone use this as a form of betting. 50 00:03:23,400 --> 00:03:25,599 But last year was and I don't have the sheet in front of me, 51 00:03:25,639 --> 00:03:29,240 but I went through. It was the second consecutive season in which I went 52 00:03:29,360 --> 00:03:35,199 better than five hundred im my over unders. So I'm sure I think I 53 00:03:35,280 --> 00:03:38,560 stopped doing like over under pools and things like that because I did it a 54 00:03:38,560 --> 00:03:44,479 few years ago with a bunch of people that don't have a job that requires 55 00:03:44,479 --> 00:03:46,759 them to focus on the NBA, and I was terrible at it. So 56 00:03:46,159 --> 00:03:51,280 I decided I should retire as as that's why I quit fantasy basketball. By 57 00:03:51,280 --> 00:03:53,840 the ways, I'm so bad at it, and I shouldn't be because this 58 00:03:53,960 --> 00:03:57,479 is literally my livelihood. Yeah, you just don't think in points per game, 59 00:03:57,560 --> 00:04:01,000 man, that's all. You're beyond that. Beyond that. Let's dive 60 00:04:01,039 --> 00:04:03,719 into this though. So I will throw it up on the screen so people 61 00:04:03,759 --> 00:04:06,719 can more easily fall along, and we'll reveal it as we go along. 62 00:04:06,759 --> 00:04:11,599 I will update it and such. And if we are in the Western Conference, 63 00:04:11,599 --> 00:04:15,960 that means we are beginning with the Dallas Mavericks and their win total at 64 00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:19,399 this recording, which is October eleventh, is at forty eight point five. 65 00:04:20,079 --> 00:04:26,920 Grant where did you have them? So I have them under but it's because 66 00:04:26,920 --> 00:04:30,600 I have them at forty eight wins, so it's super close. I think 67 00:04:30,920 --> 00:04:33,560 so last year they have the point differential of a team that should have won 68 00:04:33,600 --> 00:04:36,079 fifty one games. I don't have the standings up right now. That would 69 00:04:36,079 --> 00:04:41,759 have been something a smart person would do. But so basically I have them 70 00:04:41,800 --> 00:04:46,120 losing three ish wins off of last year, which is kind of feels tough 71 00:04:46,160 --> 00:04:49,199 to do because they have Luca don chich and you should sort of think that 72 00:04:50,079 --> 00:04:54,319 anything's possible and it doesn't really matter that much who's around him, and they 73 00:04:54,360 --> 00:04:57,680 should at least be able to be, you know, within last year's you 74 00:04:57,720 --> 00:05:00,439 know, striking distance of last year's win total. But I just think, 75 00:05:00,480 --> 00:05:03,120 I mean, it's the obvious reasons, right, Jalen Brunson's gone. I 76 00:05:03,160 --> 00:05:06,879 think that hurts the offense. I think they lose that. They're talking about 77 00:05:06,920 --> 00:05:11,120 Fakuno Compazzo coming in, which is like, are they just gonna give him 78 00:05:11,160 --> 00:05:15,560 JJ Bre's jersey and hope nobody noticed. That feels like a very Dallas thing 79 00:05:15,600 --> 00:05:19,079 to do. Yeah, I think Christian Wood is the idea that Christian Wood 80 00:05:19,079 --> 00:05:23,920 and Spencer Dinwoody can like offset the loss of Jalen Brunson is not a ridiculous 81 00:05:23,920 --> 00:05:29,360 one to me, But I have questions about how their front court rotation is 82 00:05:29,360 --> 00:05:32,160 gonna work. How does JaVale McGee contribute as a starter that I think will 83 00:05:32,199 --> 00:05:35,959 never finish games? Does Maxi Cleba Slipp? Does he get injured again? 84 00:05:36,079 --> 00:05:40,720 He's had, you know, plenty of Nixon scrapes over the years, So 85 00:05:41,120 --> 00:05:44,720 just a little bit worse than last year, but but nothing crazy. This 86 00:05:44,920 --> 00:05:48,279 one's tough because it's just Luca and I could see them very easily getting to 87 00:05:49,079 --> 00:05:53,120 fifty wins. I still have them under I think I had them at like 88 00:05:53,160 --> 00:05:56,279 forty eight wins too as well, or closer to maybe even forty seven. 89 00:05:56,319 --> 00:06:00,120 I feel like there's combustible potential here just because you are missing your second best 90 00:06:00,120 --> 00:06:03,079 player and you've replaced him with nobody. I mean, it's kind of hysterical 91 00:06:03,480 --> 00:06:09,480 that you lose Jalen Brunson and you bring in Christian Wood, who plays center, 92 00:06:09,600 --> 00:06:12,399 to come off the bench, and it's just like, I don't know 93 00:06:12,439 --> 00:06:15,800 that that offsets it enough and you just need the another creator. And if 94 00:06:15,839 --> 00:06:17,360 you think Spencer Dinwood, he's that guy. He played well in Dallas last 95 00:06:17,360 --> 00:06:20,879 season. I suppose that's fine, but your bench is just they were trying 96 00:06:20,879 --> 00:06:25,439 out Josh Green and Frankie Lakina and now the facundo compozzo stuff is out there 97 00:06:25,519 --> 00:06:28,519 because they're kind of seeing, oh, Frankie Lakina is just a three and 98 00:06:28,600 --> 00:06:30,920 D wing at this point, Josh Green probably shouldn't be saddled with too many 99 00:06:30,920 --> 00:06:35,720 ball handling skills responsibilities, And like, if you're gonna say it's just and 100 00:06:35,759 --> 00:06:40,079 then you're guaranteeing Javal McGee a starting spot even though you don't. I know, 101 00:06:40,120 --> 00:06:43,079 you said he won't finish games and the contracts fairly innocuous, but why 102 00:06:43,199 --> 00:06:46,079 is he guaranteed a starting spot to begin the year. And the other thing 103 00:06:46,079 --> 00:06:50,480 that's just tough is can they replicate last year's defensive success. Clearly, Jalen 104 00:06:50,519 --> 00:06:56,639 Brunson doesn't necessarily impact that too much, but they got a little bit of 105 00:06:56,680 --> 00:06:59,920 lucky on opponent three point shooting. They were also really good though at getting 106 00:07:00,000 --> 00:07:03,000 opponents not to take threes. Cannot withstand. If you're gonna play Christian Wood 107 00:07:03,000 --> 00:07:06,319 a bunch of minutes, there's a chance your defense suffers. So I went 108 00:07:06,439 --> 00:07:12,759 under, But Luca just makes me uneasy to pick the under because he's so 109 00:07:12,759 --> 00:07:16,240 good. There's not an insult to Luca. Just so work the Denver Nuggets 110 00:07:16,360 --> 00:07:20,560 at fifty point five. Where did you land on them? So I've got 111 00:07:20,600 --> 00:07:28,360 that as an over. I just think it's again, it's sort of uncomplicated. 112 00:07:28,399 --> 00:07:33,000 They're returning like significant offensive talent. I have him just to put a 113 00:07:33,079 --> 00:07:36,759 number on it. I have him at fifty four, which is my second 114 00:07:36,839 --> 00:07:42,079 highest total in the West. I just think, you know, I actually 115 00:07:42,160 --> 00:07:46,399 also feel like I'm sort of in the minority and really liking their offseason editions, 116 00:07:46,439 --> 00:07:48,480 or at least I'm higher than most people because I think Cantavia is called 117 00:07:48,480 --> 00:07:51,959 Wallpope and Bruce Brown Jr. Sort of take a couple of key boxes, 118 00:07:53,040 --> 00:07:57,199 Like we have guys that we can throw at tough twos and threes, probably 119 00:07:57,240 --> 00:08:01,160 more twos, but Brown can guard up a little bit. And then you 120 00:08:01,160 --> 00:08:07,399 know, you just added to super dangerous weapons in Murray and MPJ around Yokichen. 121 00:08:07,439 --> 00:08:09,519 It's just like White. You know, they played like a forty six 122 00:08:09,560 --> 00:08:13,720 win team last year based on point differential eight wins, which I'm seeing an 123 00:08:13,759 --> 00:08:18,240 eight win jump is a is a lot. But I think it's very possible. 124 00:08:18,279 --> 00:08:20,959 And look I'm not I'm going like way over too. It's you know, 125 00:08:22,000 --> 00:08:24,800 so I feel comfortable being above it even if they don't quite get to 126 00:08:24,839 --> 00:08:28,360 fifty four. Yeah, this was when I first did it was at forty 127 00:08:28,399 --> 00:08:31,319 nine and a half, and even when it moved up, it was a 128 00:08:31,399 --> 00:08:37,320 no brainer over for me. They won forty eight games without Jamal Murray and 129 00:08:37,320 --> 00:08:41,679 then basically with you know, a very limited sample size of not great Michael 130 00:08:41,720 --> 00:08:45,519 Porter Jr. Collectively, they have to get better availability from those two. 131 00:08:45,559 --> 00:08:48,919 I like Bruce Brown and KCP for this team. I question. Look, 132 00:08:48,960 --> 00:08:50,519 the defense during the preseason has made me uneasy, but we just haven't seen 133 00:08:50,519 --> 00:08:54,600 a ton of full strength Nuggets minutes. As long as the yok Yokic wrist 134 00:08:54,639 --> 00:08:58,559 injuriesn't something that's going to linger for the entire season where he misses games, 135 00:09:00,000 --> 00:09:01,679 I don't know how you wouldn't bet the over here. I know the West 136 00:09:01,759 --> 00:09:07,039 is kind of hillacious at this point, but this team, if they run 137 00:09:07,159 --> 00:09:09,919 the rotation right, which is to say, can Michael Malone get away from 138 00:09:09,960 --> 00:09:13,600 these hockey style bench units that only have one creator in bones Highland, they're 139 00:09:15,159 --> 00:09:18,879 a money offense overall with Yo Kitchen, the defense could be better. Think 140 00:09:18,879 --> 00:09:22,519 of Aaron Gordon, his life is so much more streamlined on the defensive end 141 00:09:22,559 --> 00:09:26,840 most nights with KCP and Bruce Brown there. I think that you know, 142 00:09:26,960 --> 00:09:31,399 even factoring in oh, if Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Junior miss games for 143 00:09:31,480 --> 00:09:33,480 a maintenance program or whatever back on the second night of back to backs or 144 00:09:33,519 --> 00:09:37,679 one end of back to backs, this feels like a team that, even 145 00:09:37,679 --> 00:09:41,039 if you have questions about them in the postseason, they're gonna contend for the 146 00:09:41,080 --> 00:09:45,240 best regular season record to me, and I think they're also not proven enough 147 00:09:45,279 --> 00:09:48,759 to be one of those teams like we'll get to that, we'll throw out 148 00:09:48,759 --> 00:09:50,159 that well, they don't really care about the regular season thing, like I 149 00:09:50,279 --> 00:09:54,039 think, I think they're in that sweet spot of no, they do, 150 00:09:54,480 --> 00:09:56,600 and they have a lot of incent because the number one seed is very much 151 00:09:56,639 --> 00:10:01,559 there and they should want it because in addition to just the home court advantage 152 00:10:01,600 --> 00:10:07,120 that Denver has because of where it is, there's just also the easier path. 153 00:10:07,519 --> 00:10:09,559 I just I think they should have as much incentive as anybody to try 154 00:10:09,559 --> 00:10:13,639 to get that top seed. And so just add that into all the other 155 00:10:13,679 --> 00:10:18,480 like personnel related stuff. We already hit the Golden State Warriors checking in at 156 00:10:18,480 --> 00:10:22,000 fifty two point five, which I believe is one win fewer that where from 157 00:10:22,000 --> 00:10:26,159 where it was at before the Draymond Green punching incident. I'm very curious. 158 00:10:26,679 --> 00:10:30,720 I know what you picked here already, but I actually we haven't spoken on 159 00:10:30,759 --> 00:10:33,440 the pod clearly about the Draymond incident. And so what do you have the 160 00:10:33,480 --> 00:10:37,320 Warriors at and what are just your thoughts on that entire situation for Golden State? 161 00:10:37,879 --> 00:10:43,159 Oh man, so of a lot. I have I have the over 162 00:10:43,360 --> 00:10:46,559 first of all, right, now I have them at fifty five wins, 163 00:10:46,639 --> 00:10:52,879 which is the most in the West, just by one over Denver. I 164 00:10:52,879 --> 00:10:54,039 hop Yeah, No, I should have said, first off, I can't. 165 00:10:54,080 --> 00:10:58,960 I'm not rational about the Warriors like I just I'm not so everybody you 166 00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:01,799 I would like to spoil. He texted me before we start this podcast that 167 00:11:01,879 --> 00:11:05,840 the floor for Jordan Pool is CJ. McCollum the floor And here's why. 168 00:11:05,919 --> 00:11:09,720 That's that's what you should listen to that because last year at this time, 169 00:11:09,840 --> 00:11:13,840 I don't know if I texted you, but my running thing was his floor 170 00:11:13,919 --> 00:11:16,639 is lou Williams. So like and even then it was like, oh my 171 00:11:16,639 --> 00:11:18,080 god, he's gonna win six man, like five times. Is that what 172 00:11:18,120 --> 00:11:20,639 we're talking about? Like, no, no, now, it's we're moving 173 00:11:20,679 --> 00:11:24,840 the floor up. We raised the floor it CJ McCollum. Now yeah, 174 00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:30,600 no. I I so I understand the arguments in there are a lot for 175 00:11:30,720 --> 00:11:33,399 why they why they should go under this total, why they should have a 176 00:11:33,399 --> 00:11:37,159 step back this year. The Draymond stuff is a problem. I think the 177 00:11:37,240 --> 00:11:43,200 most likely outcome is they will get over it. And I think even if 178 00:11:43,240 --> 00:11:46,240 they do not, I don't know what that looks like. Is Draymond on 179 00:11:46,279 --> 00:11:48,639 the team at all? Like do they have to trade him in a worst 180 00:11:48,679 --> 00:11:52,440 case scenario, I mean for this year's purposes, that's not maybe the worst 181 00:11:52,440 --> 00:11:58,480 thing for like a longer time horizon for the Warriors. But the way I 182 00:11:58,519 --> 00:12:01,720 work are around those and the idea that they shouldn't care about the regular season. 183 00:12:01,720 --> 00:12:05,159 They're going to rest. They played one hundred and four games last year, 184 00:12:05,360 --> 00:12:09,240 they shouldn't try to win in you know, January or whatever. All 185 00:12:09,279 --> 00:12:13,279 that's true. I just think there's a lot of room for the like key 186 00:12:13,279 --> 00:12:20,080 players to get better, like of Klay Thompson, Steph Jordan Poole, throwing 187 00:12:20,159 --> 00:12:24,600 the other young guys Wiseman, Kaminga, Moody, even Andrew Wiggins, Like, 188 00:12:24,639 --> 00:12:28,600 which of those guys would you say is more likely to be worse this 189 00:12:28,679 --> 00:12:33,639 year than last year? I think, you know, you can weigh in, 190 00:12:33,720 --> 00:12:35,559 but I think in more than half of those cases, I feel pretty 191 00:12:35,559 --> 00:12:39,639 comfortable saying those guys are gonna be better. How much they play, how 192 00:12:39,720 --> 00:12:43,600 much injury is factory, and that's just true for any good team. So 193 00:12:43,639 --> 00:12:48,320 it's just not that hard for me to see, you know, a big 194 00:12:48,399 --> 00:12:52,159 win total, and certainly one that gets over what at the fifty two and 195 00:12:52,159 --> 00:12:54,879 a half. Yeah, this one was tough for me, and I think 196 00:12:54,919 --> 00:13:00,200 Steph is gonna have he I'm jockeying between him and Jannie as my MVP pick. 197 00:13:00,240 --> 00:13:03,000 I think he's just going to be an absolute behemoth this year. But 198 00:13:03,759 --> 00:13:09,360 they're going to be reliant for more young minutes in Wiseman, Kominga, and 199 00:13:09,399 --> 00:13:13,440 Moody collectively, and Jordan Pool is great, but the Warrior's offense it came 200 00:13:13,480 --> 00:13:16,279 close to lea average. It was in like the fortieth percent tile when Pool 201 00:13:16,320 --> 00:13:20,799 played without Curry last year. Can he lift up lineups where there might be 202 00:13:20,840 --> 00:13:24,399 younger guys with him when stuff is off the floor. If it's a James 203 00:13:24,440 --> 00:13:26,879 Wiseman, I feel like a lot of friends of the podcast Jacob Borne point 204 00:13:26,879 --> 00:13:31,240 out like a lot might hinge on Jordan Pool's chemistry in the pick and roll 205 00:13:31,279 --> 00:13:33,279 with James Wiseman. That's going to determine the and so it feels like there's 206 00:13:33,279 --> 00:13:37,919 some variability caked in here also with regardable how much are they gonna care throughout 207 00:13:37,919 --> 00:13:41,799 the regular season to you know, really eclipse the fifty three fifty four wind 208 00:13:41,840 --> 00:13:48,120 mark and then the Draymond stuff just makes me uneasy because I think a lot 209 00:13:48,159 --> 00:13:52,320 of people are dismissing what happened, and just with the comments that were made 210 00:13:52,320 --> 00:13:56,679 by Kerr and Curry and Cavan Looney said something about it, I'm just like, 211 00:13:56,240 --> 00:14:01,759 this feels like a situation that could linger, and so I really want 212 00:14:01,799 --> 00:14:05,080 to hit the over, but I went with the under because there's just something 213 00:14:05,159 --> 00:14:09,519 I would still it wouldn't shock me if the Warriors won the title and I 214 00:14:09,639 --> 00:14:13,639 was trying to decide between them, the Clippers and the Nuggets to come out 215 00:14:13,679 --> 00:14:16,320 of the West, and I currently feel bad about all of those picks, 216 00:14:16,399 --> 00:14:18,080 which is very good news from Milwaukee and Philadelphia in the East. As far 217 00:14:18,120 --> 00:14:22,039 as I'm concerned, who I was weighing for my title picks. So I'm 218 00:14:22,039 --> 00:14:26,279 going under, And I don't feel great about this because I'm saying, oh, 219 00:14:26,320 --> 00:14:30,120 they're gonna win at least one fewer game than last year, which doesn't 220 00:14:30,480 --> 00:14:35,039 make sense. At the same time, I don't know, there's just something 221 00:14:35,159 --> 00:14:39,399 here and maybe I was smashing too many overs elsewhere, but them getting to 222 00:14:39,480 --> 00:14:43,840 fifty three plus it feels like a little bit of a reach with how much 223 00:14:43,879 --> 00:14:46,679 I think they're going to be reliant on like Pool, What does Clay look 224 00:14:46,720 --> 00:14:50,240 like over full season? I guess I'm not is like Andrew Wiggins really a 225 00:14:50,279 --> 00:14:54,039 fringe all NBA player? Is that like an actual Maybe I'm just not buying 226 00:14:54,080 --> 00:14:58,960 into that as much. It's I'm not saying necessarily rational. It might be 227 00:14:58,000 --> 00:15:01,120 indescribable at this point, but I went with the yonder for them. No, 228 00:15:01,279 --> 00:15:03,879 I think you are more rash. It's never a bad idea to go 229 00:15:03,960 --> 00:15:07,799 under on one of the highest totals on the board. So I like fifty. 230 00:15:07,879 --> 00:15:11,279 I mean, whoever does, like, anyone who does this is really 231 00:15:11,279 --> 00:15:13,879 good at these win totals. With fifty two point five makes you want to 232 00:15:13,919 --> 00:15:16,879 pull your hair out because you can't just out that brings us to the Houston 233 00:15:18,000 --> 00:15:20,320 Rockets, though, what do you have for them at a twenty three point 234 00:15:20,320 --> 00:15:24,279 five over under. I got an under for them. I got twenty two 235 00:15:24,279 --> 00:15:31,879 wins for them, and I think they are like those other three potential tankers 236 00:15:31,919 --> 00:15:35,720 in the West, liable who really really like, you know, we could 237 00:15:35,720 --> 00:15:39,679 have a win total in the teens. I think is in play if that's 238 00:15:39,679 --> 00:15:43,200 what it's going to take to be in that bottom tier to have that fourteen 239 00:15:43,200 --> 00:15:46,919 percent chance at the top pick. So I mean, I don't have a 240 00:15:46,919 --> 00:15:52,000 lot to say. They're really young. I think they're gonna be really bad 241 00:15:52,039 --> 00:15:56,240 defensively on offense. You know, Jalen Green really cranked it up down the 242 00:15:56,240 --> 00:16:00,000 stretch last year. I could see him playing that well for a full season 243 00:16:00,159 --> 00:16:06,440 and the offense still sucking just because I you know, this isn't a team 244 00:16:06,440 --> 00:16:08,200 designed to win, So I don't know, it's not like a knock on 245 00:16:08,279 --> 00:16:14,159 it. I just I just and look like Christian Wood was actually pretty good 246 00:16:14,200 --> 00:16:17,840 for them last year. And I think as much as I and I think 247 00:16:17,840 --> 00:16:22,440 probably you like Shiangun, I think playing him major minutes is gonna lead to 248 00:16:22,480 --> 00:16:26,159 some cool ass passes and like old school post moves and stuff. But like 249 00:16:26,399 --> 00:16:30,279 it's just the bottom line is he's not gonna help a winner yet, So 250 00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:33,759 a lot of minutes for a lot of young guys in an environment where success 251 00:16:33,879 --> 00:16:40,120 is like not a goal necessarily. I don't know what this I could have 252 00:16:40,200 --> 00:16:41,600 If it was twenty I might have been able to talk myself in and going 253 00:16:41,720 --> 00:16:45,240 under. I don't know. I just it doesn't seem doesn't seem like a 254 00:16:45,559 --> 00:16:49,480 winning is in the future. Here I went over and I almost want to 255 00:16:49,519 --> 00:16:53,200 flip flop in this moment because you made such a compelling case. I probably 256 00:16:53,559 --> 00:16:57,960 I am definitely not as high as like what Christian Wood did for them last 257 00:16:59,000 --> 00:17:00,600 year. As you were offense, he's just like he can kind of sleep 258 00:17:00,600 --> 00:17:04,200 walk his way to just good performance. I view it's so disengaged defensively. 259 00:17:04,960 --> 00:17:10,799 They won twenty and it's like, are they four wins better just by virtue 260 00:17:10,839 --> 00:17:12,839 of being a little bit more seasoned Joen Green and year two, Shaun and 261 00:17:12,920 --> 00:17:15,599 year two. I think your Barrie Smith junior ads a lot defensively. I'm 262 00:17:15,640 --> 00:17:19,839 all in on tari Eason and that's before it became cool to be all in 263 00:17:21,039 --> 00:17:23,079 on Easton during the preseason, not saying I was there first, but just 264 00:17:23,119 --> 00:17:26,480 like he made so much sense. They have a lot of guys who can 265 00:17:26,559 --> 00:17:29,640 play on this team. Maybe you don't trust the coaching and Steven Silas. 266 00:17:29,640 --> 00:17:32,759 I think that's fair pointing out the tanking stuff, especially because in two thousand 267 00:17:32,759 --> 00:17:37,119 and twenty four is the first year where Brooklyn or no, that's that's a 268 00:17:37,119 --> 00:17:40,279 problem for the net or no, okay, see controls some of their draft 269 00:17:40,680 --> 00:17:44,599 rights starting in two and twenty four. This is like their last year to 270 00:17:44,680 --> 00:17:48,279 really tank, and so I feel like I might be underwaiting that twenty three 271 00:17:48,319 --> 00:17:52,480 and a half is just so low. Then again, like I said, 272 00:17:52,519 --> 00:17:57,000 am I underestimating this tank rama for Victor women Yama? And I don't. 273 00:17:57,400 --> 00:18:00,240 I don't know if I am. I'm still gonna stick with the over. 274 00:18:00,279 --> 00:18:03,160 I'm a big believer in John Green. This team not really having a point 275 00:18:03,160 --> 00:18:07,160 guard could be an issue. Do you trust thy Ty Washington. I'm not 276 00:18:07,200 --> 00:18:10,960 a Kevin Porter junior guy as it pertains to him being a point guard. 277 00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:14,920 Are you giving Josh Christopher more responsibility? Is there a Gordon on this team 278 00:18:14,960 --> 00:18:18,839 even past the trade deadline. How much is he playing? So there are 279 00:18:18,920 --> 00:18:22,720 questions. It's just twenty three and a half is so low. And I 280 00:18:22,759 --> 00:18:26,200 think that because I'm so high on Jawn Green and I feel like there's enough 281 00:18:26,279 --> 00:18:30,880 higher end young talent in Shangoon and Jabari Smith and Easton that they can sort 282 00:18:30,920 --> 00:18:34,400 of stumble their way to four more wins. And maybe they're beating up on 283 00:18:34,440 --> 00:18:37,680 the more egregious tankers, which to me will be by the middle of the 284 00:18:37,720 --> 00:18:44,759 season San Antonio, Utah and Oklahoma City. Yeah, that brings us too. 285 00:18:45,319 --> 00:18:48,759 The Los Angeles Clippers, they're over under is fifty two and a half. 286 00:18:48,839 --> 00:18:52,599 Grant Hughes, where did you land on them? I got an under 287 00:18:52,599 --> 00:18:56,119 for them and at fifty two, so as close as I could possibly be. 288 00:18:56,160 --> 00:19:02,400 Like, so, this team, I think it's probably the deepest team 289 00:19:03,039 --> 00:19:06,559 in the league, assuming people are healthy, because there's there's like no fewer 290 00:19:06,599 --> 00:19:11,880 than a dozen guys that that should be in a rotation. So that is 291 00:19:11,920 --> 00:19:17,079 actually a good thing for regular season success because you're just generally gonna weather injuries 292 00:19:17,440 --> 00:19:22,039 better than most teams if you have, like I don't know, Nick Batom 293 00:19:22,119 --> 00:19:25,279 is probably not going to start, but he could, you know, he's 294 00:19:25,319 --> 00:19:27,480 a quality starter on like a lot of teams, or you just go down 295 00:19:27,480 --> 00:19:32,799 the line Reggie Jackson or John Wall like, yeah, neither of them superstar, 296 00:19:32,920 --> 00:19:36,759 but like you know, you're you're fine at basically every position except maybe 297 00:19:37,079 --> 00:19:40,839 center behind Zubots. But they're gonna play small anyway, so they're sort of 298 00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:44,599 equipped to weather a lot of things that would drag down a regular season win 299 00:19:44,680 --> 00:19:48,839 total. I just think the main things are, what's the what should the 300 00:19:48,839 --> 00:19:52,519 over under beyond total games played? Between Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, is 301 00:19:52,559 --> 00:19:56,440 it like like a hundred? Like are we ninety nine? Are they going 302 00:19:56,480 --> 00:19:59,759 to play fifty games apiece? So that if they get up towards sixty e 303 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:02,920 each, then I think you question maybe how many games do they play together? 304 00:20:03,039 --> 00:20:06,799 Right? So you're just never going to really see this team at full 305 00:20:06,799 --> 00:20:10,400 strength. I don't think are rarely or relative to the other good teams. 306 00:20:11,079 --> 00:20:14,079 Fifty two wins is still a lot for a team that I think is probably 307 00:20:14,880 --> 00:20:21,279 as as disinterested in where they get into the playoffs as almost anybody, because 308 00:20:21,559 --> 00:20:23,279 they just need like a couple of months sprint from their two best players, 309 00:20:23,319 --> 00:20:27,200 and anything's possible, So I'm under. But I mean when you're under at 310 00:20:27,240 --> 00:20:30,839 fifty two wins, it's it's like it's hardly a knock. I just think 311 00:20:30,359 --> 00:20:33,480 there's there's just a lot of a lot of reasons for them not to, 312 00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:37,559 uh, you know, really go for it. I went under as well, 313 00:20:37,599 --> 00:20:41,079 and I have them at fifty one. Well, I'll reveal our standings 314 00:20:41,079 --> 00:20:45,079 at the end. Although I didn't include grants win totals in his Western Conference 315 00:20:45,119 --> 00:20:48,200 standings, I'll have to remedy that at some point. But I'm just with 316 00:20:48,240 --> 00:20:52,559 everything you said. I will say, there's just the potential because of this 317 00:20:52,680 --> 00:20:55,759 depth and depth of wings by the way, where there's they have all of 318 00:20:55,799 --> 00:21:00,359 them. If your team doesn't have wings, it's because the Clippers have them. 319 00:21:00,400 --> 00:21:03,920 It wouldn't shock me if you told me that, like Paul George is 320 00:21:03,920 --> 00:21:06,519 probably more likely to play in a crap ton of games than Kawai, just 321 00:21:06,519 --> 00:21:08,559 based off how kawah has been handled in the past. If Paul George plays 322 00:21:08,559 --> 00:21:15,039 in like seventy games and you get fifty six to sixty three from Kawai, 323 00:21:15,559 --> 00:21:18,000 it wouldn't shock me if they won like fifty seven plus, and which is 324 00:21:18,039 --> 00:21:21,240 were the best regular season team by a mile, and that's why this is 325 00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:25,680 so risky, specifically with them. Yea. The Lakers come up next. 326 00:21:25,759 --> 00:21:27,799 They were at forty four and a half, and spoiler alert, we apparently 327 00:21:27,839 --> 00:21:33,440 diverge quite a bit here on how how high we are on the Lakers. 328 00:21:33,559 --> 00:21:41,119 So this is the one I feel the worst about, and I'm under. 329 00:21:41,359 --> 00:21:44,200 I'm under, but I have them at forty three wins, which I think 330 00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:47,599 is a lot more than you do if I remember correctly. Wow, way 331 00:21:47,640 --> 00:21:49,319 to spot. And now everyone knows I had the undergrand thanks, Well we're 332 00:21:49,319 --> 00:21:56,119 both under. What's the difference. I just so the Westbrook stuff is like 333 00:21:56,200 --> 00:22:00,519 so hacked now that there's just nothing new to say. If you're persuaded that 334 00:22:00,559 --> 00:22:06,799 he's going to be different somehow, you know, God bless you, I'm 335 00:22:06,839 --> 00:22:11,240 gonna need to see like a shred of willingness to compromise or change in fifteen 336 00:22:11,319 --> 00:22:15,440 years, like one time before, I believe it's going to happen in year 337 00:22:15,519 --> 00:22:18,920 sixteen. I think this is your sixteen maybe whatever it is, maybe it's 338 00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:22,920 not that long. At any rate, he's not changing. That problem is 339 00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:26,960 going to persist unless until they remedy it with a trade. Now, I 340 00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:30,079 think priced into my over or my under, which which is still you know, 341 00:22:30,160 --> 00:22:33,279 forty three wins, which I think is kind of generous based on how 342 00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:37,759 much I've hated on the Lakers in the past. Is just like if they 343 00:22:37,759 --> 00:22:41,480 do make that you know, Buddy Healed, Miles Turner for Russ, and 344 00:22:41,519 --> 00:22:45,119 a couple firsts like, then then this team is a little more interesting to 345 00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:48,400 me. You can you can feel like a legit starting five the depths is 346 00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:55,000 still gonna suck. It's it's very telling that want toisconoy Anderson looks like someone 347 00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:56,920 who's really gonna matter, and he couldn't get off the Warriors bench most nights 348 00:22:57,000 --> 00:23:00,440 last year. Like that's just the level of talent that is in the Lakers 349 00:23:00,559 --> 00:23:08,279 rotation. So forty three assumes that Lebron and Anthony Davis are like certainly healthier 350 00:23:08,319 --> 00:23:12,880 than last year, and that the supporting cast is slightly improved. I think 351 00:23:12,920 --> 00:23:18,319 Beverly matters, but I'm still under. So it's not like I can sit 352 00:23:18,359 --> 00:23:22,200 here and say like I'm over the moon about the Lakers. I was under 353 00:23:22,240 --> 00:23:26,359 and I have them at thirty seven. I just I know that they have 354 00:23:26,599 --> 00:23:32,160 they owe a swap to New Orleans. So there's just no reason for them 355 00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:34,960 to be bad. So it's not like they're gonna sit Lebron in a d 356 00:23:36,079 --> 00:23:40,960 and just suck. At the same time, unless they make the Russell Westbrook 357 00:23:41,039 --> 00:23:44,160 move, there's no way. There's no reason for me to bet the under. 358 00:23:44,279 --> 00:23:47,400 At least we can quibble over the record projections if we wanted to, 359 00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:51,440 but I'm not. It's whether it's the Buddy Heel, the Miles Turner trade. 360 00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:53,680 I had Lakers fans are mad that I suggested, like, would you 361 00:23:53,720 --> 00:23:59,279 do a first round pick for Peartle and Richardson and McDermott if the Spurs would 362 00:23:59,279 --> 00:24:03,160 take back Russ And I actually thought that that wasn't enough for the Spurs because 363 00:24:03,319 --> 00:24:07,160 Ross's contract is so large. It's a single season contract, but it's so 364 00:24:07,279 --> 00:24:12,599 large that you can't like you're and you're not rerouting it. You're acquiring him 365 00:24:12,680 --> 00:24:15,960 to not use him, to tell him to go home, or you're not 366 00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:18,319 going to remove him, and you're just waiving him or buying him out. 367 00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:21,359 And that's why you need to be compensated for taking on the deal. And 368 00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:23,799 I'm not saying the Lakers should like if if there's if you're of the mind 369 00:24:23,839 --> 00:24:26,839 I don't want to give up these distant first a better deal will come along 370 00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:32,519 in the future where we could use them. Fine, but like, let's 371 00:24:32,559 --> 00:24:36,400 not pretend that it's absurd to think that you're gonna need to give up two 372 00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:40,119 first round picks for a turner to get back you know, two players who 373 00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:42,079 were gonna be in your rotation while jettisoning one who was just not a good 374 00:24:42,079 --> 00:24:45,799 fit. And where just landing Lakers. They have more NBA players than they 375 00:24:45,799 --> 00:24:51,160 did last year. But how like Anty Davis doesn't anthy Davis's chronic injury is 376 00:24:51,240 --> 00:24:55,680 injuries. It's never one specific thing. It's just always injured all the time. 377 00:24:56,680 --> 00:24:57,799 And he's not as injury prone and some people might think, but he 378 00:24:57,839 --> 00:25:02,279 just misses games. He gets hanged up, and I was carrying this heavy 379 00:25:02,319 --> 00:25:04,400 chip on his shoulder, So like, how how hard is that to do 380 00:25:04,519 --> 00:25:07,279 every night? So I just I don't trust them, and I don't like 381 00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:11,160 the fit of this roster where they still haven't they went they leaned into such 382 00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:15,880 a guard heavy rotation right now, and they didn't have the resources to get 383 00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:18,079 all these wings. But like, why are you loading up on all of 384 00:25:18,119 --> 00:25:22,519 these guards? So especially Bald dominant ones Dennis Shrewder or Lonnie Walker the fourth. 385 00:25:22,359 --> 00:25:26,720 So I'm just I'm not high on them. And if they hit the 386 00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:30,680 over and don't trade Russell Westbrook, I will be floored. I want to 387 00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:34,880 make that clear. I'll be floored. Same the Memphis Grizzlies. They're over 388 00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:38,839 unders at forty eight point five. I will say I'm owing three the past 389 00:25:38,880 --> 00:25:44,440 three offseason on the Memphis Grizzlies over under because they've cleared the over and I've 390 00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:47,200 put the under all three times. Grant, where are you at on their 391 00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:51,920 forty eight point five line, I'm under, I'm under. I think the 392 00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:57,119 Jaren Jackson injury is significant. I think losing even if it's not you know, 393 00:25:57,319 --> 00:26:02,160 the type of thing that you know, cause some huge chunk of games, 394 00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:06,799 I think it matters given his history too. I think losing to Anthony 395 00:26:06,839 --> 00:26:10,920 Melton is not nothing. I think losing Kyle Anderson even is not nothing. 396 00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:12,359 I think this is a much thinner team than it used to be, and 397 00:26:12,359 --> 00:26:15,960 it's a team that's going to depend on unproven players to a larger extent than 398 00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:18,799 it did last year when it had so much success. And I also think 399 00:26:18,839 --> 00:26:22,000 John Marant's gonna get hurt right, Like I don't. I mean, I 400 00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:26,279 don't wish it, but like it's just it's just it's it's sort of how 401 00:26:26,319 --> 00:26:30,279 I feel about Zion. I think just like every second we get with these 402 00:26:30,319 --> 00:26:33,240 guys on the floor and healthy, I feel like is is I feel lucky 403 00:26:33,359 --> 00:26:41,680 because it's just their playing style is just so violent and put so much stress 404 00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:44,079 on the body, like it's tough. I don't know. I mean, 405 00:26:44,279 --> 00:26:47,759 there's just certain guys like that. You can remember watching Derrick Rose, and 406 00:26:47,960 --> 00:26:51,359 I think Westbrook is really the only guy, and he wasn't like the two 407 00:26:51,359 --> 00:26:53,799 foot plant, hard stop explosion type of athlete. He was more of a 408 00:26:53,799 --> 00:26:59,160 straight line guy. But all these like just you know, ferociously athletic, 409 00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:03,480 like two foot jos, you know, hard pivot guys. It's tough. 410 00:27:03,759 --> 00:27:07,000 And Marants you know, he's been hurt so and I don't think they're going 411 00:27:07,039 --> 00:27:11,000 twenty in two or whatever ridiculous number that was in the games he misses this 412 00:27:11,079 --> 00:27:14,960 year. I just I don't believe in that. I think that showed that 413 00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:18,039 he was a suspect defender. But he's too good to run up that kind 414 00:27:18,039 --> 00:27:22,279 of record without him. So I have the under I think there's still you 415 00:27:22,319 --> 00:27:26,799 know, very much in the mix for a top four spot if some things 416 00:27:26,839 --> 00:27:30,720 break right for them in the West. But yeah, it's it's it's not 417 00:27:30,759 --> 00:27:33,200 like they weren't. I mean last year it was just such a such a 418 00:27:33,759 --> 00:27:38,359 ride to get up to where they did. I think even just just a 419 00:27:38,400 --> 00:27:42,720 little regression overall, I think from that crazy season is kind of in order 420 00:27:42,759 --> 00:27:48,079 to I went under as well for most of the reasons that you stated, 421 00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:51,000 and to I have him at forty six wins, and to pull them back 422 00:27:51,039 --> 00:27:55,200 ten wins from last year, it's just like, might be fucking stupid, 423 00:27:55,279 --> 00:27:59,599 because that just that drop off doesn't happen unless the team loses someone for an 424 00:27:59,720 --> 00:28:03,880 entire year to this injury or loop like bleeds talent, which they didn't. 425 00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:06,920 However, I do think, to add on what you said, I just 426 00:28:07,000 --> 00:28:11,680 think they leaned too far into their internal development if you were looking to maximize 427 00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:17,400 the current timeline, where if Jake la Ravia and David Roddy and Santi Aldama 428 00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:18,559 are now all going to play, or two or three of those guys are 429 00:28:18,559 --> 00:28:22,319 in a factor into the rotation. And I do think that not that they 430 00:28:22,359 --> 00:28:25,519 overachieved last year, but the West was just like when you look at the 431 00:28:25,559 --> 00:28:27,599 bottom and the Spurs I think had thirty seven wins last year and made the 432 00:28:27,640 --> 00:28:32,160 play in there were there might be more easy games this year, but like 433 00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:34,759 the middle of the pack from the King's on up is just going to be 434 00:28:34,799 --> 00:28:40,480 absolutely brutal, especially if the Lakers are healthy and trying to where I don't 435 00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:42,160 know if there's going to be as many easy victories. Can they just beat 436 00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:45,359 up on the opponents that they're supposed to beat. Who are the opponents that 437 00:28:45,359 --> 00:28:49,000 you're supposed to beat? Now there's you know, okay, see Utah, 438 00:28:49,079 --> 00:28:55,160 Houston, San Antonio and after that, like every game could basically be a 439 00:28:55,160 --> 00:29:00,079 war. So I recognize I'm pulling them back pretty far, but I think 440 00:29:00,519 --> 00:29:06,640 they might have deliberately taken a step back to try and plan ahead for like 441 00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:10,920 a future. But maybe Zaire Williams pops maybe Desmond Bane is another jump in 442 00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:15,359 him. They burned me three straight years, that they might burn me a 443 00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:18,440 fourth or at this point it's just I'm an idiot because I'd be owing four 444 00:29:18,519 --> 00:29:22,039 for the past four years since I started doing this exercise. Now keep doubling 445 00:29:22,079 --> 00:29:26,119 down, you'll be right eventually. That's That's how I look at this. 446 00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:32,839 The Minnesota Timberwolves are up next, with an over under of fourty eight point 447 00:29:32,839 --> 00:29:34,440 five. This was a this I'm not gonna lie was a tough one for 448 00:29:34,480 --> 00:29:37,599 me. Grant, where did you land? Not as tough for me? 449 00:29:37,640 --> 00:29:42,839 I went over. I just think I'm receptive to to like all the if 450 00:29:42,839 --> 00:29:45,440 you want to go all the way back to like the particulars of the Rudy 451 00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:48,839 Gobert transaction, like did they give up too much? Are we sure that 452 00:29:48,880 --> 00:29:52,599 he's gonna age? Well, you know all that stuff. How's this going 453 00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:56,200 to go? In the playoffs where we've seen Gobert be less effective, you 454 00:29:56,200 --> 00:30:00,359 know, basically every year. It's not always his fault. I need to 455 00:30:00,359 --> 00:30:06,039 belabor all the all the takes from various Utah playoff disappointments. But I think 456 00:30:06,079 --> 00:30:10,480 all their real problems are playoff problems. And I think this is a regular 457 00:30:10,480 --> 00:30:14,279 season over under, and you sort of have to like keep that in mind 458 00:30:14,319 --> 00:30:17,640 and kind of split your thinking from how big of a contender is this team 459 00:30:17,759 --> 00:30:21,200 versus is a team in a rack up a bunch of wins, and so 460 00:30:21,240 --> 00:30:23,319 the Wolves are a team that I think Gobert is just you know, We've 461 00:30:23,319 --> 00:30:26,240 talked about it, and everybody's talked about it. If he's on the floor, 462 00:30:26,240 --> 00:30:29,599 you're going to defend roughly at a top five rade. It would be 463 00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:33,359 surprising if you did not. This offense I think has immense potential. Both 464 00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:38,039 ends of those things could be solved or rendered less effective in a postseason series 465 00:30:38,079 --> 00:30:44,160 against a good team that can scout and exploit weaknesses. But that's a problem 466 00:30:44,240 --> 00:30:47,880 for then. And I just think this is a team too that's had so 467 00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:52,319 little success generally speaking, for so long that like kind of like Denver, 468 00:30:52,640 --> 00:30:56,240 this isn't like a let's mess around and let's let's be cool getting in is 469 00:30:56,240 --> 00:30:59,279 the fifth or sixth seed? I think I think Minnesota wants to win a 470 00:30:59,279 --> 00:31:03,119 ton, and I think it's the type of team that has players that like 471 00:31:03,200 --> 00:31:07,279 haven't won a ton, at least the guy most of the incumbents in Minnesota. 472 00:31:07,759 --> 00:31:10,119 So I like them to go over. I like them to get to 473 00:31:10,200 --> 00:31:12,920 like fifty two and be you know, maybe third in the West or potentially 474 00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:18,519 higher depending on what happens with the Warriors and the Nuggets. I went did 475 00:31:18,519 --> 00:31:22,039 I go under on this line? There's no way I went under on this 476 00:31:22,079 --> 00:31:26,480 line. Apparently which just doesn't doesn't see I'm going over on this line because 477 00:31:26,480 --> 00:31:29,839 I agree with you and I am high on the Timberwolves. I have questions 478 00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:32,920 about the secondary ball handling, and like you said, when you have time 479 00:31:32,960 --> 00:31:36,279 to game plan for specific teams in the postseason, I think it's fair to 480 00:31:36,279 --> 00:31:38,319 be concerned about how this front court works out. But I also think that 481 00:31:38,440 --> 00:31:41,400 Rudy gobert shortcomings have been overstated and a lot of it had to do with 482 00:31:41,400 --> 00:31:45,640 who was in front of him, which now you have Auntie Edwards and Jane 483 00:31:45,680 --> 00:31:48,640 McDaniels in front of you, which is a lot different they do. I 484 00:31:48,640 --> 00:31:52,759 feel like they uncomfortably need a big year from D'Angelo Russell since they're gonna have 485 00:31:52,799 --> 00:31:56,559 to stagger they're two best ball handlers, and Edwards and Delo or you're really 486 00:31:56,559 --> 00:32:00,839 gonna need Jail and Noel to pop, or maybe you get a great season 487 00:32:00,880 --> 00:32:04,839 from Jordan mclaughland. At this point, you need to rely on Brent Forbes 488 00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:07,920 or Austin Rivers at all. Chris Finch is an offensive genius, and so 489 00:32:07,960 --> 00:32:09,960 I think that could work out. I think this team is gonna flirt with, 490 00:32:10,039 --> 00:32:13,039 if not clear fifty in the red I just think they're gonna be a 491 00:32:13,079 --> 00:32:15,400 regular season powerhouse still. So I don't know why I had it marked as 492 00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:19,400 the under. I think I had them winning forty eight games and the standing, 493 00:32:19,440 --> 00:32:22,599 so I need to pull back a win from somebody. I'd go to 494 00:32:22,720 --> 00:32:27,039 Memphis winning forty five before i'd stick the under here with Minnesota, though, 495 00:32:27,440 --> 00:32:29,920 Yeah, I think I agree with that. Do you want to go first 496 00:32:29,960 --> 00:32:32,079 on the Pelicans? I feel like I don't want to steal your thunder. 497 00:32:32,920 --> 00:32:37,480 Look, I am going the over on the Pelicans at forty four and a 498 00:32:37,559 --> 00:32:39,720 half. My hot take is that, and I don't know if it's a 499 00:32:39,720 --> 00:32:44,559 hot take anymore because I feel like people have jumped aboard the bandwagon, which 500 00:32:44,720 --> 00:32:46,119 was I early? Was I on time? Was I late? I honestly 501 00:32:46,119 --> 00:32:49,240 don't know. I'm not trying to get credit for that. But this is 502 00:32:49,279 --> 00:32:52,759 a team to me that's probably gonna win like fifty games. If you can 503 00:32:52,799 --> 00:32:54,440 tell me, he's I on place in sixty or something along those lines. 504 00:32:54,599 --> 00:32:59,119 Willie Green had them defending their asses off in transition after that three and sixteen 505 00:32:59,200 --> 00:33:02,039 start. You have a lot of talent that just fits well together. There's 506 00:33:02,079 --> 00:33:06,920 probably concerns about their shooting but Fred Vinson is there. Trey Murphy the third 507 00:33:06,960 --> 00:33:09,319 look great to close the season, and during the playoffs, Herb Jones was 508 00:33:09,359 --> 00:33:14,200 already hitting just enough of his threes. They could really field some units too. 509 00:33:14,240 --> 00:33:16,640 That fuck up shit defensively when you look at Herb Jones. When you 510 00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:22,200 have Dyson Daniels there this year, Trey Murphy there, Jose Alvarado there, 511 00:33:22,359 --> 00:33:24,160 you could throw those four out and then play Zion and let's see what happens. 512 00:33:24,200 --> 00:33:28,799 Having Larry Dn's junior also gives you the ability to play Zion at the 513 00:33:28,799 --> 00:33:31,319 five without him really being your five. I think Zion and Jonas Vound Tunist 514 00:33:31,319 --> 00:33:36,000 will be a great fit on offense because he made it work with Steven Adams 515 00:33:36,000 --> 00:33:38,240 on offense, and Jonas vun and Tunis gives you more stretch and then more 516 00:33:38,279 --> 00:33:42,640 on ball skills where I will fall for Jonas voun and Tunis pump fakes from 517 00:33:42,640 --> 00:33:44,920 the comfort of my own home, I would just dip off the couch. 518 00:33:45,519 --> 00:33:49,039 I am so high on this team. It's deep. There are concerns, 519 00:33:49,039 --> 00:33:52,559 of course, can they defend, like sustain their defense at a high level 520 00:33:52,640 --> 00:33:55,559 enough In lineups that have Ingram cj and Zion I think most of that's going 521 00:33:55,640 --> 00:34:00,000 to depend on how much does Zion improve on defense. Bendingram had a pretty 522 00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:04,000 good year defensively last year. CJ is what he is on defense, and 523 00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:06,200 then Zion just on the ball. Away from the ball, he need to 524 00:34:06,240 --> 00:34:09,199 kind of improve everywhere, but he is gonna help you rebound and end possessions 525 00:34:09,239 --> 00:34:13,039 and having human vouancunis on the floor at the same time, you should probably 526 00:34:13,039 --> 00:34:17,679 be grabbing like ninety percent of opponent misses. So I am absurdly high on 527 00:34:17,679 --> 00:34:22,440 this team that I not only consider a regular season threat, but a potential 528 00:34:22,760 --> 00:34:27,320 matchup nightmare for so many teams in the playoffs. So it was an easy 529 00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:29,440 at forty four and a half, It was an easy over for me. 530 00:34:30,440 --> 00:34:37,239 Yeah, I'm about as curious about what this particular team is going to look 531 00:34:37,280 --> 00:34:40,119 like as I am about any any other. Did you know that last year 532 00:34:40,119 --> 00:34:45,320 they finished per cleatingly last they finished better on defense than offense. It's it's 533 00:34:45,400 --> 00:34:47,920 it's close, and it's kind of marginal. But like that blew my mind 534 00:34:47,960 --> 00:34:52,400 because my whole question I was I was ready to be contrarian and push back 535 00:34:52,639 --> 00:34:55,599 not just against you, but against the rising tide of like Pelicans optimism, 536 00:34:55,639 --> 00:34:59,599 you know, And my pushback was gonna be, like, tell me why 537 00:34:59,639 --> 00:35:02,239 the def ense is any better? And even if this is a top five 538 00:35:02,360 --> 00:35:06,840 offense, which is like, I don't know how it's not like honestly, 539 00:35:07,000 --> 00:35:10,440 with the easy baskets they're gonna get and the free throws they're gonna generate. 540 00:35:10,519 --> 00:35:15,599 Just this is all just Zion, honestly. But no, I'm over too. 541 00:35:15,960 --> 00:35:19,639 I'm not as high over as you are. I just the only thing 542 00:35:19,639 --> 00:35:24,960 I would add is, you know they I think they got some some like 543 00:35:25,079 --> 00:35:29,960 tricky decisions to make still, and these are things you would love to have 544 00:35:30,039 --> 00:35:32,760 solved way before this, but Zion just hasn't been healthy. But like, 545 00:35:32,800 --> 00:35:37,920 what is your optimal what is the optimal way to deploy him on both ends? 546 00:35:37,960 --> 00:35:40,920 Because like you still could play him technically at center and just totally give 547 00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:45,159 up on defense, but score one hundred and forty points per hundred possessions. 548 00:35:45,159 --> 00:35:49,119 There's something insane, right, Like or you could you leave Jonnis in there 549 00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:52,719 and you just you know, make it work defend. I just I'm That's 550 00:35:52,719 --> 00:35:55,119 why I'm so curious. I don't know how it's gonna look, But there's 551 00:35:55,159 --> 00:35:59,480 just so much talent here, and I think Willie Green's a good coach that 552 00:36:00,039 --> 00:36:05,119 if they if they don't win in the high forties, somebody got hurt, 553 00:36:05,280 --> 00:36:07,199 right, Like, I just don't I don't understand how how it happens. 554 00:36:07,239 --> 00:36:09,920 And that feels crazy to say because they won thirty six games last year, 555 00:36:09,960 --> 00:36:14,679 but it's just a it's a different team. Zion changes everything, and and 556 00:36:14,760 --> 00:36:19,480 so yeah, I'm optimistic. I just I just it makes me scared to 557 00:36:19,519 --> 00:36:22,079 think, like the Pelicans are gonna be really good this fast, right, 558 00:36:22,360 --> 00:36:28,239 I totally get the trepidation, but like there has to be a progress, 559 00:36:28,280 --> 00:36:30,760 Like some teams are going to explode the Grizzlies last year, and the Pelicans 560 00:36:30,760 --> 00:36:34,800 could be that be that team, And so I don't think it's egregious if 561 00:36:34,840 --> 00:36:37,119 we miss. I don't think it's an egregious if they stay healthy the entire 562 00:36:37,159 --> 00:36:39,519 season and win like thirty one games, and yeah, we can, we 563 00:36:39,519 --> 00:36:45,079 can grow. But I'm so, I'm I'm so. The Pelicans and the 564 00:36:45,119 --> 00:36:46,840 Calves were like my siren songs this year. I think they're gonna probably be 565 00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:52,239 way better than people are crediting. We're onto okase though at twenty three and 566 00:36:52,280 --> 00:36:58,400 a half, which is very very low considering when you look, they won 567 00:36:58,480 --> 00:37:04,559 twenty four last year, So where are you at grant point, I'm comfortably 568 00:37:04,639 --> 00:37:09,239 under I just like so I have. They're the only team that I have 569 00:37:09,360 --> 00:37:15,039 projected to win in the teams. I give them nineteen wins. I had 570 00:37:15,079 --> 00:37:17,239 them tied with Houston for a little bit, and you know, you could 571 00:37:17,280 --> 00:37:22,480 talk me into Utah or India or whatever, depending on how things shake out 572 00:37:22,480 --> 00:37:24,960 towards the end. I feel like they're the worst team. I feel like 573 00:37:25,000 --> 00:37:30,280 they're the team that is most committed to losing on purpose and has proven a 574 00:37:30,320 --> 00:37:34,840 willingness to do a lot of stuff to that end, more so than most 575 00:37:34,920 --> 00:37:38,400 other teams. Like, you know, we can joke about like well Houston 576 00:37:38,480 --> 00:37:42,960 might you know, shut somebody down, or Utah is gonna totally sell everything 577 00:37:43,000 --> 00:37:46,679 off, Like the Thunder know how to do this. They know the guys, 578 00:37:47,079 --> 00:37:52,199 they know how to just play just tank commanders. They know how to 579 00:37:52,320 --> 00:37:57,679 like everyone's gonna hate it, but like Pokashevski was just like not so much 580 00:37:57,719 --> 00:38:00,960 last year, but the year before. Just like they they will let guys 581 00:38:00,039 --> 00:38:05,199 play under the auspices of like and not. It's not a ridiculous thing, 582 00:38:05,280 --> 00:38:07,000 like, let's give them reps, let's let them develop, but like they're 583 00:38:07,039 --> 00:38:13,119 just killing the bottom line and it's a win win in which is ironic because 584 00:38:13,119 --> 00:38:15,800 they're trying to lose. So I think the Thunder are going to be the 585 00:38:15,840 --> 00:38:17,159 worst team. I think they're gonna have the worst record, and I think 586 00:38:17,159 --> 00:38:22,039 they're cool with that. I think they want that, and then maybe this 587 00:38:22,079 --> 00:38:25,599 whole thing is over starting next year. But I think there's one more year 588 00:38:25,639 --> 00:38:30,559 of just you. You couldn't. You can't convince me there's a team that 589 00:38:30,719 --> 00:38:35,199 is trying to lose harder than the Thunder will I could probably. I think 590 00:38:35,199 --> 00:38:37,079 you might be discounting what the Jazz will do mid season a little bit if 591 00:38:37,079 --> 00:38:39,440 you want to give them that title, or even they're good now, the 592 00:38:39,519 --> 00:38:43,519 Jazz are like the Jazz are perfectly okay. They have a lot of NBA 593 00:38:43,599 --> 00:38:46,519 players right now. Yes, I'm just saying they're not going to by the 594 00:38:46,559 --> 00:38:50,599 end of the season. I have them under as well, And I would 595 00:38:50,599 --> 00:38:53,639 have been pretty hostile towards anyone who thought there was another year of tanking and 596 00:38:53,679 --> 00:38:58,119 the Thunder. If Chet Holmgren didn't have the right foot injury, I think 597 00:38:58,159 --> 00:39:01,960 them consolidating three picks additional first round picks into Uchman Jang at least showed some 598 00:39:02,000 --> 00:39:07,320 immediacy here, and I'm not looking forward to another season of teams monitoring Shay 599 00:39:07,400 --> 00:39:14,920 Gilder's Alexander's situation because apparently being twenty three in a market that's not California in 600 00:39:14,960 --> 00:39:17,519 New York and under contract for five years is a situation worth monitoring. He 601 00:39:17,639 --> 00:39:21,880 seems happy and informed when you when you look at the interviews. He had 602 00:39:22,320 --> 00:39:24,400 to exit last year and then coming into this year, maybe that changes that 603 00:39:24,440 --> 00:39:28,280 they're losing. But I'll boil it down to this, because the chet home 604 00:39:28,320 --> 00:39:31,480 grin injury, Like, let's just insert the Sam Presty laser beam, I 605 00:39:31,599 --> 00:39:37,639 mean dot jpeg here, because I give them until Christmas before on their scorecard, 606 00:39:38,280 --> 00:39:43,239 Victor Weman Yama is listed as DMP on loan to Metropolitan ninety two. 607 00:39:43,320 --> 00:39:45,440 And that's how agreed, just that the thunder are gonna end up tanking. 608 00:39:45,639 --> 00:39:49,880 I don't even we don't need to expand it's just and good like that's the 609 00:39:49,920 --> 00:39:53,920 situation that they're in this team. A little bit more interesting the Phoenix Suns 610 00:39:53,960 --> 00:40:00,480 fifty two and a half is they're over under. I'm under, and I 611 00:40:00,480 --> 00:40:02,960 don't feel good about it because they want so many freaking games last year, 612 00:40:04,000 --> 00:40:07,239 and I mean the principles are back. Other than Jay Crowder, who'll be 613 00:40:07,239 --> 00:40:13,039 gone, I will well, Willy Well, I mean maybe on the team, 614 00:40:13,039 --> 00:40:16,320 he's not gonna play. I think just a few things, right, 615 00:40:16,360 --> 00:40:20,960 It's it's nothing like, it's nothing earth shattering. Chris Paul's a year older. 616 00:40:22,320 --> 00:40:25,880 I'm not gonna weigh. I'm not gonna weigh the postseason flame out just 617 00:40:25,920 --> 00:40:30,119 because I think now we've heard enough people whisper about a COVID outbreak that it 618 00:40:30,119 --> 00:40:32,760 feels like that's just such a clean explanation for how shitty they look that I'm 619 00:40:32,760 --> 00:40:37,039 willing to at least entertain it, so I do. It is a massive 620 00:40:37,239 --> 00:40:39,760 dropping wins, though down I have them down to fifty one, so they're 621 00:40:39,840 --> 00:40:45,199 kind of narrowly beneath the under. I think, I wonder how many teams 622 00:40:45,440 --> 00:40:50,960 have lost thirteen more games year over a year, Like it can't be a 623 00:40:50,960 --> 00:40:55,039 lot, especially one that didn't lose yeah like one of their top four players. 624 00:40:55,239 --> 00:40:58,679 Yeah, this is why I feel terrible about it. But and the 625 00:40:58,719 --> 00:41:02,199 other the other reason is it's all like stupid gut or you know, feelings. 626 00:41:02,239 --> 00:41:06,599 I don't have any statistical support for why they're gonna lose so many more 627 00:41:06,599 --> 00:41:12,920 games. It's like Chris Paul's older DeAndre Ayton is talking to Monty Williams. 628 00:41:12,920 --> 00:41:16,840 Now, that's cool. That seems like a situation that's not optimal. I'm 629 00:41:16,880 --> 00:41:20,920 not a huge fan of their depth, especially if it is Cam Johnson that 630 00:41:20,960 --> 00:41:22,320 winds up in the starting lineup. I think you lose a lot of shooting 631 00:41:22,360 --> 00:41:27,239 on the bench, like but that even even that is getting into like more 632 00:41:27,360 --> 00:41:30,599 rational explanations. I just kind of feel like the Sun's had a couple shots 633 00:41:30,599 --> 00:41:34,960 at this thing and they may have missed it a little bit. And some 634 00:41:35,000 --> 00:41:37,639 of the vibes. We haven't even mentioned the Sarver thing. I don't know 635 00:41:37,679 --> 00:41:39,519 how much that matters. It's just kind of like there's just a handful of 636 00:41:39,639 --> 00:41:45,840 things that just I don't feel good about this team being close to what it 637 00:41:45,960 --> 00:41:47,559 was last year. Not a great explanation, but that's just kind of where 638 00:41:47,559 --> 00:41:51,920 I'm at. No, I think it's fair, and they are I don't 639 00:41:51,920 --> 00:41:54,119 want to say one they are one injury away from a catastrophe. I don't 640 00:41:54,159 --> 00:41:57,800 mean, oh, Chris Paul Devin Booker gets injured, if DeAndre Eton goes 641 00:41:57,800 --> 00:42:00,360 down, kle Bridges goes down, like the fucked because they're so shallow. 642 00:42:00,400 --> 00:42:04,519 I mean, they have guys on their bench that you can like in campaign. 643 00:42:05,239 --> 00:42:08,840 I really am in love with Ishmae Ishwayne Wright. But like there's talk 644 00:42:08,920 --> 00:42:14,599 of like Jacque Landale looks so good, and are you relying on Tory Craig. 645 00:42:15,079 --> 00:42:19,679 Are you relying on Damien Lee josh A Kogi once he's healthy. It 646 00:42:19,679 --> 00:42:23,000 gets pretty iffy after your top five. But like as I don't trust the 647 00:42:23,079 --> 00:42:28,000 Lakers to make a move this season to change out Russell Westbrook. I believe 648 00:42:28,039 --> 00:42:30,239 the Suns are going to do something and that maybe it's not an all in 649 00:42:30,320 --> 00:42:34,760 trade because they probably want to keep a lot of their future picks. But 650 00:42:34,800 --> 00:42:37,840 like you attached Jay crowd or salary in a first round pick this year, 651 00:42:37,159 --> 00:42:40,039 does that get you Gary Trent Jr. Who I don't believe that the Raptors 652 00:42:40,079 --> 00:42:44,920 are going to look at as a long term guy and that immediately sort of 653 00:42:44,920 --> 00:42:46,480 just drums up their total. And I'm looking at they were a regular season 654 00:42:46,519 --> 00:42:51,320 machine last year. If they're gonna get relatively good health, there are players 655 00:42:51,320 --> 00:42:53,360 on this team who can get better. Maybe not Devin Booker, but it 656 00:42:53,440 --> 00:42:58,039 might be Devin Booker, DeAndre Ayton, mcal Bridges, Cam Johnson, one 657 00:42:58,159 --> 00:43:00,559 or two of those guys is gonna get material materially better given the points of 658 00:43:00,599 --> 00:43:07,639 their career that they're currently entering. So looking at the top, like they 659 00:43:07,639 --> 00:43:08,840 could have one of the best starting five, they will have one of the 660 00:43:08,880 --> 00:43:12,360 best starting fives in the league, or they should. It's fair to worry 661 00:43:12,400 --> 00:43:15,800 about how will Cam Johnson defend and rebound at the four? But like, 662 00:43:16,000 --> 00:43:19,320 I just stn't think they're gonna be really good. And I went over, 663 00:43:19,440 --> 00:43:21,639 this is the moral of that. That was a roundabout way of getting there, 664 00:43:21,880 --> 00:43:24,800 because fifty three wins, it's eleven fewer. And so it's like, 665 00:43:25,159 --> 00:43:29,320 you have to tell me that if Chris Paul plays in fewer games and you 666 00:43:29,440 --> 00:43:35,480 lose Jay Crowder, that those that combination was worth eleven losses. I just 667 00:43:35,519 --> 00:43:39,159 can't or twelve losses to go under. I can't get there. And so 668 00:43:39,599 --> 00:43:44,119 I'm not going to factor in an injury for iron Man, Mchael Bridges or 669 00:43:44,119 --> 00:43:46,480 even Devin Booker at this point or eight. And so I went over and 670 00:43:46,480 --> 00:43:50,519 I actually feel this is one of my best bets right now. How about 671 00:43:50,559 --> 00:43:53,280 that You're gonna be right about You're gonna be right about this, I can 672 00:43:53,320 --> 00:43:55,440 already tell, but I'm gonna stick to it. I'm not going to back 673 00:43:55,480 --> 00:44:00,199 down. The Portland Trailblazers are at thirty nine point five. What do you 674 00:44:00,239 --> 00:44:02,880 have them, grant? Where do you have? This is like a yawn 675 00:44:04,199 --> 00:44:07,119 of an over because I think this is just a five hundred team, So 676 00:44:07,280 --> 00:44:09,280 I have I think they're gonna win forty one games, but like the difference 677 00:44:09,760 --> 00:44:15,440 realistically between you know, thirty seven and forty two is just not that meaningful. 678 00:44:15,519 --> 00:44:16,880 This team is in that range. I don't see how they get a 679 00:44:16,920 --> 00:44:21,840 lot better than that. And I mean, honestly, the defense I think 680 00:44:22,480 --> 00:44:24,840 should be better, so it's hard for me to imagine them being worse than 681 00:44:24,880 --> 00:44:28,440 that. I will say that, like, you know, looking at last 682 00:44:28,480 --> 00:44:31,360 year is less instructive for the Blazers than it is for almost any other team 683 00:44:31,400 --> 00:44:36,320 because like nobody was there and they were trying to lose and whatever. But 684 00:44:37,480 --> 00:44:39,880 I think the offense should be great, I think the defense should be better, 685 00:44:40,920 --> 00:44:44,599 So I'm going over. But it's not like you know, I think 686 00:44:44,599 --> 00:44:47,480 they're gonna be like in just a dog fight for you know, the nine 687 00:44:47,519 --> 00:44:51,920 ten spot in the West. So so they're they're just right, just a 688 00:44:51,960 --> 00:44:54,840 total middle of the pack outfit. To me, I really really, really 689 00:44:54,880 --> 00:44:59,920 really really hope friend of the podcast HOWR Bone Biggs isn't listening or watching this 690 00:45:00,000 --> 00:45:02,639 because I went under And part of that is because I'm confused by them. 691 00:45:02,719 --> 00:45:07,119 But the West is brutal. I don't know if they have another move in 692 00:45:07,199 --> 00:45:10,480 them to get better, and they are just their depth is dependent on a 693 00:45:10,519 --> 00:45:15,000 lot of just ifs. And you look at their backup five rotation where it's 694 00:45:15,159 --> 00:45:20,440 Drew U Banks or you're gonna play some trendon Watford there. This is a 695 00:45:20,480 --> 00:45:23,440 team that needs a lot maybe from Justice Winslow where you're needing to see your 696 00:45:23,440 --> 00:45:27,960 little to stay healthy. I'm not going to use the excuse. Oh, 697 00:45:27,960 --> 00:45:30,280 they've done the three guard thing before with Anthony Simon's, Powell and Dame, 698 00:45:30,320 --> 00:45:34,159 and now they have GP two Simon's and Dame. Is that that much better? 699 00:45:34,400 --> 00:45:36,800 I think it could be because of how good GP two is on defense 700 00:45:36,800 --> 00:45:39,960 and how much bigger he plays on both offense and defense that his size. 701 00:45:40,480 --> 00:45:45,559 It's just they're good and like the top six on their roster, maybe even 702 00:45:45,599 --> 00:45:49,880 seven. Because I am a nas little guy. I believe in it and 703 00:45:49,960 --> 00:45:52,719 if Dame is healthy and look, I think Dame will be fine. By 704 00:45:52,760 --> 00:45:54,480 the way, he's older. Last year, did you know this was the 705 00:45:54,519 --> 00:45:58,880 first time in his career basically it's with him plus or minus two minutes that 706 00:45:58,920 --> 00:46:06,039 he didn't play at least twenty four hundred minutes. Wow. I just they 707 00:46:06,079 --> 00:46:09,519 feel a little shallow and they're best defenders, none of them are really If 708 00:46:09,519 --> 00:46:13,559 you trust Nurkich, it's sort of your backline protector. You think that Jeremy 709 00:46:13,599 --> 00:46:15,719 Grant's gonna be able to make enough and Nas are gonna be able to make 710 00:46:15,800 --> 00:46:20,599 enough place behind him. Sure, I don't necessarily. I'm just not high 711 00:46:20,719 --> 00:46:22,800 on their depth, and I think they could find them. They could be 712 00:46:22,880 --> 00:46:28,000 one of the surprise pivots of the season. Where no, we don't trade 713 00:46:28,079 --> 00:46:30,079 Damian Lillard and I don't even know it's even trade eligible this season after signing 714 00:46:30,079 --> 00:46:34,960 his extension. Doesn't matter, not where you trade Damian Lillard. But oh 715 00:46:35,000 --> 00:46:38,119 we might pull back go for this top pick again. Maybe we're looking at 716 00:46:38,119 --> 00:46:43,039 trading you know, Jeremy Grant or something. They're just one of my candidates 717 00:46:43,119 --> 00:46:47,239 to be a sneaky tank job and that's not Oh and he can be Dame 718 00:46:47,239 --> 00:46:50,880 could be traded in January. So I'm mistaken there. I forgot about that. 719 00:46:51,079 --> 00:46:52,599 I don't think they're gonna trade Dame. But this is just a team 720 00:46:52,639 --> 00:46:58,440 to me that I think is it threatens to get lost in the shuffle of 721 00:46:58,480 --> 00:47:01,599 what is an incredible Western Conference this year, at least on papers so far. 722 00:47:02,079 --> 00:47:07,800 Yeah, the Kings thirty three and a half. These are your Kings. 723 00:47:07,880 --> 00:47:10,480 You you they're there. You have the Warriors and then the Kings. 724 00:47:10,480 --> 00:47:15,320 They're your Kings. Yeah, I don't I'd like to have a custody dispute 725 00:47:15,360 --> 00:47:19,599 about the Kings. I don't know if I meet them, uh I, 726 00:47:19,760 --> 00:47:23,280 but I will say I'm going over because that's such a low. I mean, 727 00:47:23,519 --> 00:47:28,880 thirty three and a half, that's that's that's low. So I'm going 728 00:47:28,920 --> 00:47:32,039 over. I think I think there's a very good chance that the Kings are 729 00:47:32,079 --> 00:47:37,880 really good offensively, and you know, even and even saying that, like 730 00:47:37,920 --> 00:47:44,079 the Fox Sabonis spacing crunch is a real thing. But they did just surround 731 00:47:44,119 --> 00:47:45,880 those guys with shooters because I think they're gonna field a lot of lineups that 732 00:47:45,920 --> 00:47:50,320 are Fox and Sabonis, and you've got Malik Monk and Kevin Herder at Kevin 733 00:47:50,400 --> 00:47:53,239 Herder and Harrison Barnes and so like, that's three guys that are gonna make 734 00:47:53,280 --> 00:47:58,639 spot up threes at solid clips. They won't. This team will not stop 735 00:47:58,679 --> 00:48:01,199 anybody. I think this team has a really good chance to be a bottom 736 00:48:01,239 --> 00:48:07,119 three defense, which is not new territory for Sacramento. So I actually I 737 00:48:07,159 --> 00:48:10,719 think you know that. You could tell me they're going to finish a game 738 00:48:10,760 --> 00:48:15,079 ahead of Portland and I'd be like, yeah, okay, that's that's realistic. 739 00:48:15,880 --> 00:48:20,360 I think they're a little worse most likely than say the Blazers, who 740 00:48:20,400 --> 00:48:23,400 I had had a five hundred clip. But I think the Kings are better 741 00:48:23,440 --> 00:48:29,199 than than thirty three and a half wins. And I really think this is 742 00:48:29,199 --> 00:48:32,480 a team that is not going to tank if they're anywhere close. I think 743 00:48:32,519 --> 00:48:36,320 they're going to push for wins, and with a lot of other teams go 744 00:48:36,360 --> 00:48:38,840 in the other direction, I think that kind of uh creates some opportunities. 745 00:48:39,000 --> 00:48:44,000 I agree with you on the Kings. They were an easy over for me, 746 00:48:44,000 --> 00:48:46,239 which is almost uncomfortable. But even if you're trying to factor in like 747 00:48:46,320 --> 00:48:52,639 a King's win wins tax here, this line suggests that they're gonna win. 748 00:48:52,239 --> 00:48:55,760 To hit the the under, they would have to be worse than three of 749 00:48:55,800 --> 00:49:00,000 the past four years, with the exception of last year. The previous three 750 00:49:00,119 --> 00:49:02,639 seasons they won, some of them were shortened. They won more than the 751 00:49:02,679 --> 00:49:06,280 equivalent of thirty three games. And I don't know how you look at this 752 00:49:06,360 --> 00:49:10,760 roster and think that they're worse than like those teams. They're gonna be really 753 00:49:10,800 --> 00:49:14,360 good on offense. Like you said, we saw the Sibbonus and Fox thing 754 00:49:14,440 --> 00:49:16,199 work without a ton of shooting last year. They have a ton of shooting 755 00:49:16,199 --> 00:49:20,320 now. I think the only argument, aside from injuries was the disclaimer for 756 00:49:20,320 --> 00:49:23,440 everyone is you think they're gonna be in the conversation to say, you know 757 00:49:23,480 --> 00:49:28,159 what, sab Bonus is extension eligible. We shouldn't have made that trade. 758 00:49:28,320 --> 00:49:30,840 We suck, We're moving him. We're gonna find someone to move Fox, 759 00:49:30,079 --> 00:49:32,960 and we're like gonna start this whole thing over, which I would be. 760 00:49:35,039 --> 00:49:37,599 I feel like the Blazers are more of a candidate to do that than the 761 00:49:37,679 --> 00:49:40,679 Kings are at this point. And so this was a pretty easy over for 762 00:49:40,760 --> 00:49:44,159 me. I do have for the record, the Kings, the Blazers, 763 00:49:44,159 --> 00:49:47,079 and the Lakers are all at like thirty seven wins. For me, Yeah, 764 00:49:47,119 --> 00:49:51,800 no, I think that range is right. It would be such a 765 00:49:51,880 --> 00:49:54,480 Kings thing, a Kang's thing if they decided to tank and they just are 766 00:49:54,599 --> 00:49:58,280 doing it. Any year where there's like six other teams that are trying to 767 00:49:58,280 --> 00:50:00,760 do it, it's just the wrong year to try to lose. Let's hope 768 00:50:00,760 --> 00:50:05,800 that doesn't happen. After the games, we have the San Antonio Spurs at 769 00:50:05,840 --> 00:50:08,679 twenty two and a half. I'm not sure if this line presumes like Greg 770 00:50:08,719 --> 00:50:13,840 Popovich will be suiting up a game for them, but twenty two and a 771 00:50:13,880 --> 00:50:17,960 half is low. It is low, and that's why I went over again. 772 00:50:19,320 --> 00:50:22,719 Totally possible that they're the team that just really goes for it right, 773 00:50:22,840 --> 00:50:28,039 really just packs it in. I think Popovich's presence, I don't know if 774 00:50:28,039 --> 00:50:31,320 this is there's this is based on nothing. I think Popovich's presence will prevent 775 00:50:32,400 --> 00:50:39,920 just the most egregious, like awful level of tanking. So like, I 776 00:50:39,920 --> 00:50:45,039 think they're gonna win twenty five games, which is but I think it's gonna 777 00:50:45,079 --> 00:50:47,679 be just enough to keep them up over that twenty two and a half line. 778 00:50:49,559 --> 00:50:52,679 But I just I mean, when Kelton Johnson had that shoulder thing in 779 00:50:52,719 --> 00:50:55,519 the in training camp, it was just like, Oh, here we go. 780 00:50:55,719 --> 00:51:00,119 This is gonna get so bad. But it seems like he's going to 781 00:51:00,199 --> 00:51:02,079 be fine, and like he's a quality player. Peardle's a quality player. 782 00:51:02,480 --> 00:51:06,960 They got role Richardson McDermott, They got guys who can play. Devin Vassel 783 00:51:07,000 --> 00:51:09,519 can shoot, like there's there's NBA players on this team. So unless they 784 00:51:09,559 --> 00:51:14,639 get real crazy with trying to lose, I don't see them quiet as down, 785 00:51:14,679 --> 00:51:17,119 as quite as low as like you're Houston's in okay SE's at least in 786 00:51:17,159 --> 00:51:22,320 my opinion, I went under because I think that they're gonna be egregious in 787 00:51:22,360 --> 00:51:25,480 tanking. And here's why, I think Greg Popovic fucking loves it. He 788 00:51:25,599 --> 00:51:30,360 seems just rejuvenated. He's been coaching younger guys and been willing to experiment. 789 00:51:30,440 --> 00:51:34,840 He even said they were asking him about a starting lineup. This was a 790 00:51:34,840 --> 00:51:36,920 few days ago, so it might have changed, but they asked him about 791 00:51:36,920 --> 00:51:38,159 he said, well, we know, Yako Peurdle's gonna start, and then 792 00:51:38,159 --> 00:51:44,079 I'll figure out the rest later and this team is gonna experiment like wild and 793 00:51:44,119 --> 00:51:45,960 I'm so here for it. I also think you have to look at the 794 00:51:45,000 --> 00:51:49,360 short companies of the roster. They it's not just because they don't have a 795 00:51:49,360 --> 00:51:52,800 blue chip cornerstone. They have a lot of very intriguing young players. Kelton 796 00:51:52,880 --> 00:51:54,440 Johnson. I love Jeremy sow and I think he's a dark horse Rookie of 797 00:51:54,440 --> 00:51:58,320 the Year pick along with Easan when you look at the roles that they might 798 00:51:58,360 --> 00:52:01,840 have that allow the volume necessarily end or the convo Devin Vassell and I love 799 00:52:01,920 --> 00:52:07,280 Josh Primo as well, but like they're all either so early in their careers 800 00:52:07,360 --> 00:52:10,440 like a Primo or sow In, like Jeremy sow In and Blake Wesley and 801 00:52:10,480 --> 00:52:15,280 Malachai Brandham, or they're just not the guy in Devin Vassell or Charlton Johnson. 802 00:52:15,559 --> 00:52:19,880 Where is the primary ball handling coming from the Only way this team can 803 00:52:19,920 --> 00:52:22,519 generate offense by playing faster than everyone else, which they will try to do. 804 00:52:23,000 --> 00:52:27,239 I just they're going to be Knights where it's going to be rough. 805 00:52:27,679 --> 00:52:30,679 And the other thing is they have between Richardson Peardle and depending on how you 806 00:52:30,679 --> 00:52:35,760 feel about Doug McDermot, but let's use Richardson and Peardle. They have two 807 00:52:36,039 --> 00:52:39,440 of the most attractive trade chips for contenders because they shouldn't cost a ton. 808 00:52:39,519 --> 00:52:43,800 Maybe Purdle cost you a late first round pick, but they're both expiring. 809 00:52:43,920 --> 00:52:45,440 So if you don't want to get married to them for long and just want 810 00:52:45,440 --> 00:52:50,239 to have the inside track on deciding whether to resign either one of them, 811 00:52:50,320 --> 00:52:52,800 I think the Spurs are gonna move both. If you if you said between 812 00:52:52,840 --> 00:52:57,719 McDermott, Peurtle and Josh Richardson, the over under on the number of guys 813 00:52:57,719 --> 00:53:00,679 still being there past the trade deadline is one point five, I would take 814 00:53:00,679 --> 00:53:02,159 the over. And I think the Spurs, the Spurs, the Pacers, 815 00:53:02,440 --> 00:53:06,440 and the Thunder are gonna be the teams that I think really lean into this 816 00:53:06,480 --> 00:53:12,199 thing from from day one of the season, which brings us to another team 817 00:53:12,199 --> 00:53:15,320 in the Utah Jazz. At twenty four and a half, I got them 818 00:53:15,400 --> 00:53:19,880 under narrowly under. I think everything we've we've mentioned the Jazz several times, 819 00:53:20,079 --> 00:53:22,639 I think I think, as it stands today, this is not a roster 820 00:53:22,719 --> 00:53:25,519 that's gonna win fewer than than twenty four and a half games. But like 821 00:53:25,599 --> 00:53:30,599 you've said, and and like I think all logic points to the guys that 822 00:53:30,639 --> 00:53:34,199 are on the team right now will not be on the team for most of 823 00:53:34,239 --> 00:53:37,800 this year, like I think, And like if if, especially if the 824 00:53:37,800 --> 00:53:39,239 winds start to pile up, you know, if they win, if they 825 00:53:39,280 --> 00:53:43,960 start out like six and eight or something like, that's a problem. So 826 00:53:44,239 --> 00:53:46,599 I think, you know, they'll get there. I think the main thing 827 00:53:46,639 --> 00:53:51,760 here really is, you know, the Jazz won the offseason. They collected 828 00:53:51,840 --> 00:53:53,960 ten million future firsts, but like none of those are going to be as 829 00:53:54,039 --> 00:53:59,199 valuable as the pick they could get on their own right now, right that. 830 00:53:59,320 --> 00:54:04,000 That's both because they have total control over where they finish. You know, 831 00:54:04,239 --> 00:54:06,719 you still have the flattened lottery, yats, but they're in charge of 832 00:54:06,719 --> 00:54:12,039 that. And because of who's potentially available at number one, Danny Ainge is 833 00:54:12,079 --> 00:54:15,199 not messing around, Like this is clear that like we're going to do everything 834 00:54:15,239 --> 00:54:21,280 that we can to just build this stockpile, and with the aim of getting 835 00:54:21,679 --> 00:54:24,159 a player like when Yama, who's going to be available right now if you 836 00:54:24,199 --> 00:54:28,960 suck bad enough, like do maximize your chances of getting this guy. So 837 00:54:29,199 --> 00:54:30,960 I don't know, I don't know what the number would have had to be 838 00:54:31,079 --> 00:54:36,360 for me to go over, but but it's it's under for me, and 839 00:54:36,960 --> 00:54:40,599 and I think other than okay, see, the level of commitment to really 840 00:54:40,840 --> 00:54:45,039 we're gonna lose this year is it's hard to top. When you're talking about 841 00:54:45,119 --> 00:54:49,960 Utah. I agree with everything you said, which is why this might be 842 00:54:50,000 --> 00:54:53,079 surprising. But I went over because I don't know how long it's going to 843 00:54:53,159 --> 00:54:57,960 take for them to get into that gear, just because they have so many 844 00:54:58,039 --> 00:55:02,559 good veterans right now, and con Jordan Clarkson, Malik Beasley, Larry Marketing, 845 00:55:02,639 --> 00:55:07,480 Colin Sexton is good himself, who they might keep long they're going to 846 00:55:07,559 --> 00:55:12,159 keep long term or at least through this season. And so yes, they'll 847 00:55:12,159 --> 00:55:14,079 come up point where they shut it down. But it just feels like it 848 00:55:14,159 --> 00:55:16,239 might be a hair too late to compete with the under for this. And 849 00:55:16,280 --> 00:55:21,360 I'm not saying that necessarily sabotages them, because look, Moose could still happen, 850 00:55:21,679 --> 00:55:25,119 but we'll know if they don't start shutting down or really curbing the minutes 851 00:55:25,159 --> 00:55:29,559 of their better players early, or start moving people. I'm not talking at 852 00:55:29,559 --> 00:55:32,800 the trade deadline. I'm talking before Thanksgiving. They might just stumble in to 853 00:55:32,880 --> 00:55:36,000 the over here and be a twenty five twenty six win team, and I 854 00:55:36,039 --> 00:55:37,840 have them at twenty five just by virtue of that. So it's a combination 855 00:55:37,880 --> 00:55:40,800 of I think jazz fans that are saying people don't understand how good they're going 856 00:55:40,840 --> 00:55:47,159 to be aren't considering enough how much Utah is going to actively try to suck. 857 00:55:47,400 --> 00:55:51,800 But I also think that people who assume they're going to suck aren't accounting 858 00:55:51,880 --> 00:55:53,760 enough for well, they're going to be at least a quarter of the season 859 00:55:53,920 --> 00:55:58,880 where they have a bunch of real NBA players in the rotation. So I 860 00:55:58,920 --> 00:56:02,639 went over, but I'm it's like a cautiously unsettling over. Yeah, we're 861 00:56:02,760 --> 00:56:08,920 one win apart. Basically, right, this was great everyone. Please remember 862 00:56:08,920 --> 00:56:12,920 to rate, review, subscribe on YouTube and your podcast player if you've not 863 00:56:12,960 --> 00:56:15,119 done so already. Shout us out on Twitter, Retweet the promos we put 864 00:56:15,159 --> 00:56:19,519 out, comment like to break the Algorithm on YouTube, follow us on the 865 00:56:19,559 --> 00:56:22,280 socials. The links to that are in the podcast description. Check out the 866 00:56:22,280 --> 00:56:25,199 Eastern Conference over underpod, which will be coming out after this one. By 867 00:56:25,199 --> 00:56:27,800 the time you listen to this one, I might already be out, so 868 00:56:27,880 --> 00:56:30,280 check it out on YouTube and your podcast players. Fall Grant on Twitter ATUC 869 00:56:30,480 --> 00:56:36,320 underscore us for his by quarterly weet and until next time, I gave you 870 00:56:36,320 --> 00:56:37,960 all the shout out. The one, the only, the real player who 871 00:56:38,000 --> 00:56:44,599 might single handedly, potentially if they're lucky, push the Mavericks towards their over Frank Blakeena