What is up, fellow thermonuclear A efforts. I am Dan Favalley coming at
you with the hashtag return of co host Grant Hughes at gt underscore Hughes on
Twitter. He is back because it's time to go through over and under his
four A conference. We did not specify, so I'm gonna specify right now.
It's the Western Conference. We're gonna begin with very quickly, though.
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and YouTube descriptions as well. And if you have not, we're wrapping up
world. We're two thirds of the way done with our NBA team look Ahead
series, which will be done by or on Opening night. Download Wise,
those podcasts have been a fucking disaster and even viewwise on YouTube, but they've
been very instructive, and so if you're a fan of one team, I
highly encourage you checking out bouncing around for some some other teams, not just
so that Grant and I can continue rolling in name brand no show socks as
well. But with all that out of the way, we get to the
question everyone's been dying to know, Grant, how the heck are you doing.
I'm doing great, I'm glad to be back. I'm glad to talk
to you about over unders and I did. I did cheat and listen to
a previous PODGI did about wind total. So this isn't competitive, but if
it was, I would be very ready to compete. That was I realized
that was smashing the over on every single look Ahead podcast, and I was
like, you need to sit down and like actually start committing. And I
promise more prep work went into this than my intro, where it was,
oh, which conference are we going to do? Let's do the West.
I respected the spontaneity of that, though, how harbor are these for you
this year. Uh, there were a hand there were a handful that were
I mean, they're always kind of hard because the number always looks pretty good
for obvious reasons, you know, because there's a lot of very smart people
that set these lines, and it's hard to really in most cases talk yourself
off of being like a win or two away from that number. And I
mostly failed in trying to be more than a win or two away from a
lot of these. I do think where it is difficult is is I think,
like you when you when I went back and looked, I just was
optimistic. There were there were too many wins for it to be like actually
possible over a full NBA season. And so I think, you know,
I guess yes and no. So yeah, because like I obviously I'm not
gonna you know, generally be smarter than oddsmakers, uh, with a couple
of exceptions for like public teams. I think, But yeah, no,
I think. But what I do think is it's a great exercise because it
makes it forces you to sort of justify and put a number on something and
then kind of run through like why it does or doesn't make sense. And
I will say I don't recommend anyone use this as a form of betting.
But last year was and I don't have the sheet in front of me,
but I went through. It was the second consecutive season in which I went
better than five hundred im my over unders. So I'm sure I think I
stopped doing like over under pools and things like that because I did it a
few years ago with a bunch of people that don't have a job that requires
them to focus on the NBA, and I was terrible at it. So
I decided I should retire as as that's why I quit fantasy basketball. By
the ways, I'm so bad at it, and I shouldn't be because this
is literally my livelihood. Yeah, you just don't think in points per game,
man, that's all. You're beyond that. Beyond that. Let's dive
into this though. So I will throw it up on the screen so people
can more easily fall along, and we'll reveal it as we go along.
I will update it and such. And if we are in the Western Conference,
that means we are beginning with the Dallas Mavericks and their win total at
this recording, which is October eleventh, is at forty eight point five.
Grant where did you have them? So I have them under but it's because
I have them at forty eight wins, so it's super close. I think
so last year they have the point differential of a team that should have won
fifty one games. I don't have the standings up right now. That would
have been something a smart person would do. But so basically I have them
losing three ish wins off of last year, which is kind of feels tough
to do because they have Luca don chich and you should sort of think that
anything's possible and it doesn't really matter that much who's around him, and they
should at least be able to be, you know, within last year's you
know, striking distance of last year's win total. But I just think,
I mean, it's the obvious reasons, right, Jalen Brunson's gone. I
think that hurts the offense. I think they lose that. They're talking about
Fakuno Compazzo coming in, which is like, are they just gonna give him
JJ Bre's jersey and hope nobody noticed. That feels like a very Dallas thing
to do. Yeah, I think Christian Wood is the idea that Christian Wood
and Spencer Dinwoody can like offset the loss of Jalen Brunson is not a ridiculous
one to me, But I have questions about how their front court rotation is
gonna work. How does JaVale McGee contribute as a starter that I think will
never finish games? Does Maxi Cleba Slipp? Does he get injured again?
He's had, you know, plenty of Nixon scrapes over the years, So
just a little bit worse than last year, but but nothing crazy. This
one's tough because it's just Luca and I could see them very easily getting to
fifty wins. I still have them under I think I had them at like
forty eight wins too as well, or closer to maybe even forty seven.
I feel like there's combustible potential here just because you are missing your second best
player and you've replaced him with nobody. I mean, it's kind of hysterical
that you lose Jalen Brunson and you bring in Christian Wood, who plays center,
to come off the bench, and it's just like, I don't know
that that offsets it enough and you just need the another creator. And if
you think Spencer Dinwood, he's that guy. He played well in Dallas last
season. I suppose that's fine, but your bench is just they were trying
out Josh Green and Frankie Lakina and now the facundo compozzo stuff is out there
because they're kind of seeing, oh, Frankie Lakina is just a three and
D wing at this point, Josh Green probably shouldn't be saddled with too many
ball handling skills responsibilities, And like, if you're gonna say it's just and
then you're guaranteeing Javal McGee a starting spot even though you don't. I know,
you said he won't finish games and the contracts fairly innocuous, but why
is he guaranteed a starting spot to begin the year. And the other thing
that's just tough is can they replicate last year's defensive success. Clearly, Jalen
Brunson doesn't necessarily impact that too much, but they got a little bit of
lucky on opponent three point shooting. They were also really good though at getting
opponents not to take threes. Cannot withstand. If you're gonna play Christian Wood
a bunch of minutes, there's a chance your defense suffers. So I went
under, But Luca just makes me uneasy to pick the under because he's so
good. There's not an insult to Luca. Just so work the Denver Nuggets
at fifty point five. Where did you land on them? So I've got
that as an over. I just think it's again, it's sort of uncomplicated.
They're returning like significant offensive talent. I have him just to put a
number on it. I have him at fifty four, which is my second
highest total in the West. I just think, you know, I actually
also feel like I'm sort of in the minority and really liking their offseason editions,
or at least I'm higher than most people because I think Cantavia is called
Wallpope and Bruce Brown Jr. Sort of take a couple of key boxes,
Like we have guys that we can throw at tough twos and threes, probably
more twos, but Brown can guard up a little bit. And then you
know, you just added to super dangerous weapons in Murray and MPJ around Yokichen.
It's just like White. You know, they played like a forty six
win team last year based on point differential eight wins, which I'm seeing an
eight win jump is a is a lot. But I think it's very possible.
And look I'm not I'm going like way over too. It's you know,
so I feel comfortable being above it even if they don't quite get to
fifty four. Yeah, this was when I first did it was at forty
nine and a half, and even when it moved up, it was a
no brainer over for me. They won forty eight games without Jamal Murray and
then basically with you know, a very limited sample size of not great Michael
Porter Jr. Collectively, they have to get better availability from those two.
I like Bruce Brown and KCP for this team. I question. Look,
the defense during the preseason has made me uneasy, but we just haven't seen
a ton of full strength Nuggets minutes. As long as the yok Yokic wrist
injuriesn't something that's going to linger for the entire season where he misses games,
I don't know how you wouldn't bet the over here. I know the West
is kind of hillacious at this point, but this team, if they run
the rotation right, which is to say, can Michael Malone get away from
these hockey style bench units that only have one creator in bones Highland, they're
a money offense overall with Yo Kitchen, the defense could be better. Think
of Aaron Gordon, his life is so much more streamlined on the defensive end
most nights with KCP and Bruce Brown there. I think that you know,
even factoring in oh, if Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Junior miss games for
a maintenance program or whatever back on the second night of back to backs or
one end of back to backs, this feels like a team that, even
if you have questions about them in the postseason, they're gonna contend for the
best regular season record to me, and I think they're also not proven enough
to be one of those teams like we'll get to that, we'll throw out
that well, they don't really care about the regular season thing, like I
think, I think they're in that sweet spot of no, they do,
and they have a lot of incent because the number one seed is very much
there and they should want it because in addition to just the home court advantage
that Denver has because of where it is, there's just also the easier path.
I just I think they should have as much incentive as anybody to try
to get that top seed. And so just add that into all the other
like personnel related stuff. We already hit the Golden State Warriors checking in at
fifty two point five, which I believe is one win fewer that where from
where it was at before the Draymond Green punching incident. I'm very curious.
I know what you picked here already, but I actually we haven't spoken on
the pod clearly about the Draymond incident. And so what do you have the
Warriors at and what are just your thoughts on that entire situation for Golden State?
Oh man, so of a lot. I have I have the over
first of all, right, now I have them at fifty five wins,
which is the most in the West, just by one over Denver. I
hop Yeah, No, I should have said, first off, I can't.
I'm not rational about the Warriors like I just I'm not so everybody you
I would like to spoil. He texted me before we start this podcast that
the floor for Jordan Pool is CJ. McCollum the floor And here's why.
That's that's what you should listen to that because last year at this time,
I don't know if I texted you, but my running thing was his floor
is lou Williams. So like and even then it was like, oh my
god, he's gonna win six man, like five times. Is that what
we're talking about? Like, no, no, now, it's we're moving
the floor up. We raised the floor it CJ McCollum. Now yeah,
no. I I so I understand the arguments in there are a lot for
why they why they should go under this total, why they should have a
step back this year. The Draymond stuff is a problem. I think the
most likely outcome is they will get over it. And I think even if
they do not, I don't know what that looks like. Is Draymond on
the team at all? Like do they have to trade him in a worst
case scenario, I mean for this year's purposes, that's not maybe the worst
thing for like a longer time horizon for the Warriors. But the way I
work are around those and the idea that they shouldn't care about the regular season.
They're going to rest. They played one hundred and four games last year,
they shouldn't try to win in you know, January or whatever. All
that's true. I just think there's a lot of room for the like key
players to get better, like of Klay Thompson, Steph Jordan Poole, throwing
the other young guys Wiseman, Kaminga, Moody, even Andrew Wiggins, Like,
which of those guys would you say is more likely to be worse this
year than last year? I think, you know, you can weigh in,
but I think in more than half of those cases, I feel pretty
comfortable saying those guys are gonna be better. How much they play, how
much injury is factory, and that's just true for any good team. So
it's just not that hard for me to see, you know, a big
win total, and certainly one that gets over what at the fifty two and
a half. Yeah, this one was tough for me, and I think
Steph is gonna have he I'm jockeying between him and Jannie as my MVP pick.
I think he's just going to be an absolute behemoth this year. But
they're going to be reliant for more young minutes in Wiseman, Kominga, and
Moody collectively, and Jordan Pool is great, but the Warrior's offense it came
close to lea average. It was in like the fortieth percent tile when Pool
played without Curry last year. Can he lift up lineups where there might be
younger guys with him when stuff is off the floor. If it's a James
Wiseman, I feel like a lot of friends of the podcast Jacob Borne point
out like a lot might hinge on Jordan Pool's chemistry in the pick and roll
with James Wiseman. That's going to determine the and so it feels like there's
some variability caked in here also with regardable how much are they gonna care throughout
the regular season to you know, really eclipse the fifty three fifty four wind
mark and then the Draymond stuff just makes me uneasy because I think a lot
of people are dismissing what happened, and just with the comments that were made
by Kerr and Curry and Cavan Looney said something about it, I'm just like,
this feels like a situation that could linger, and so I really want
to hit the over, but I went with the under because there's just something
I would still it wouldn't shock me if the Warriors won the title and I
was trying to decide between them, the Clippers and the Nuggets to come out
of the West, and I currently feel bad about all of those picks,
which is very good news from Milwaukee and Philadelphia in the East. As far
as I'm concerned, who I was weighing for my title picks. So I'm
going under, And I don't feel great about this because I'm saying, oh,
they're gonna win at least one fewer game than last year, which doesn't
make sense. At the same time, I don't know, there's just something
here and maybe I was smashing too many overs elsewhere, but them getting to
fifty three plus it feels like a little bit of a reach with how much
I think they're going to be reliant on like Pool, What does Clay look
like over full season? I guess I'm not is like Andrew Wiggins really a
fringe all NBA player? Is that like an actual Maybe I'm just not buying
into that as much. It's I'm not saying necessarily rational. It might be
indescribable at this point, but I went with the yonder for them. No,
I think you are more rash. It's never a bad idea to go
under on one of the highest totals on the board. So I like fifty.
I mean, whoever does, like, anyone who does this is really
good at these win totals. With fifty two point five makes you want to
pull your hair out because you can't just out that brings us to the Houston
Rockets, though, what do you have for them at a twenty three point
five over under. I got an under for them. I got twenty two
wins for them, and I think they are like those other three potential tankers
in the West, liable who really really like, you know, we could
have a win total in the teens. I think is in play if that's
what it's going to take to be in that bottom tier to have that fourteen
percent chance at the top pick. So I mean, I don't have a
lot to say. They're really young. I think they're gonna be really bad
defensively on offense. You know, Jalen Green really cranked it up down the
stretch last year. I could see him playing that well for a full season
and the offense still sucking just because I you know, this isn't a team
designed to win, So I don't know, it's not like a knock on
it. I just I just and look like Christian Wood was actually pretty good
for them last year. And I think as much as I and I think
probably you like Shiangun, I think playing him major minutes is gonna lead to
some cool ass passes and like old school post moves and stuff. But like
it's just the bottom line is he's not gonna help a winner yet, So
a lot of minutes for a lot of young guys in an environment where success
is like not a goal necessarily. I don't know what this I could have
If it was twenty I might have been able to talk myself in and going
under. I don't know. I just it doesn't seem doesn't seem like a
winning is in the future. Here I went over and I almost want to
flip flop in this moment because you made such a compelling case. I probably
I am definitely not as high as like what Christian Wood did for them last
year. As you were offense, he's just like he can kind of sleep
walk his way to just good performance. I view it's so disengaged defensively.
They won twenty and it's like, are they four wins better just by virtue
of being a little bit more seasoned Joen Green and year two, Shaun and
year two. I think your Barrie Smith junior ads a lot defensively. I'm
all in on tari Eason and that's before it became cool to be all in
on Easton during the preseason, not saying I was there first, but just
like he made so much sense. They have a lot of guys who can
play on this team. Maybe you don't trust the coaching and Steven Silas.
I think that's fair pointing out the tanking stuff, especially because in two thousand
and twenty four is the first year where Brooklyn or no, that's that's a
problem for the net or no, okay, see controls some of their draft
rights starting in two and twenty four. This is like their last year to
really tank, and so I feel like I might be underwaiting that twenty three
and a half is just so low. Then again, like I said,
am I underestimating this tank rama for Victor women Yama? And I don't.
I don't know if I am. I'm still gonna stick with the over.
I'm a big believer in John Green. This team not really having a point
guard could be an issue. Do you trust thy Ty Washington. I'm not
a Kevin Porter junior guy as it pertains to him being a point guard.
Are you giving Josh Christopher more responsibility? Is there a Gordon on this team
even past the trade deadline. How much is he playing? So there are
questions. It's just twenty three and a half is so low. And I
think that because I'm so high on Jawn Green and I feel like there's enough
higher end young talent in Shangoon and Jabari Smith and Easton that they can sort
of stumble their way to four more wins. And maybe they're beating up on
the more egregious tankers, which to me will be by the middle of the
season San Antonio, Utah and Oklahoma City. Yeah, that brings us too.
The Los Angeles Clippers, they're over under is fifty two and a half.
Grant Hughes, where did you land on them? I got an under
for them and at fifty two, so as close as I could possibly be.
Like, so, this team, I think it's probably the deepest team
in the league, assuming people are healthy, because there's there's like no fewer
than a dozen guys that that should be in a rotation. So that is
actually a good thing for regular season success because you're just generally gonna weather injuries
better than most teams if you have, like I don't know, Nick Batom
is probably not going to start, but he could, you know, he's
a quality starter on like a lot of teams, or you just go down
the line Reggie Jackson or John Wall like, yeah, neither of them superstar,
but like you know, you're you're fine at basically every position except maybe
center behind Zubots. But they're gonna play small anyway, so they're sort of
equipped to weather a lot of things that would drag down a regular season win
total. I just think the main things are, what's the what should the
over under beyond total games played? Between Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, is
it like like a hundred? Like are we ninety nine? Are they going
to play fifty games apiece? So that if they get up towards sixty e
each, then I think you question maybe how many games do they play together?
Right? So you're just never going to really see this team at full
strength. I don't think are rarely or relative to the other good teams.
Fifty two wins is still a lot for a team that I think is probably
as as disinterested in where they get into the playoffs as almost anybody, because
they just need like a couple of months sprint from their two best players,
and anything's possible, So I'm under. But I mean when you're under at
fifty two wins, it's it's like it's hardly a knock. I just think
there's there's just a lot of a lot of reasons for them not to,
uh, you know, really go for it. I went under as well,
and I have them at fifty one. Well, I'll reveal our standings
at the end. Although I didn't include grants win totals in his Western Conference
standings, I'll have to remedy that at some point. But I'm just with
everything you said. I will say, there's just the potential because of this
depth and depth of wings by the way, where there's they have all of
them. If your team doesn't have wings, it's because the Clippers have them.
It wouldn't shock me if you told me that, like Paul George is
probably more likely to play in a crap ton of games than Kawai, just
based off how kawah has been handled in the past. If Paul George plays
in like seventy games and you get fifty six to sixty three from Kawai,
it wouldn't shock me if they won like fifty seven plus, and which is
were the best regular season team by a mile, and that's why this is
so risky, specifically with them. Yea. The Lakers come up next.
They were at forty four and a half, and spoiler alert, we apparently
diverge quite a bit here on how how high we are on the Lakers.
So this is the one I feel the worst about, and I'm under.
I'm under, but I have them at forty three wins, which I think
is a lot more than you do if I remember correctly. Wow, way
to spot. And now everyone knows I had the undergrand thanks, Well we're
both under. What's the difference. I just so the Westbrook stuff is like
so hacked now that there's just nothing new to say. If you're persuaded that
he's going to be different somehow, you know, God bless you, I'm
gonna need to see like a shred of willingness to compromise or change in fifteen
years, like one time before, I believe it's going to happen in year
sixteen. I think this is your sixteen maybe whatever it is, maybe it's
not that long. At any rate, he's not changing. That problem is
going to persist unless until they remedy it with a trade. Now, I
think priced into my over or my under, which which is still you know,
forty three wins, which I think is kind of generous based on how
much I've hated on the Lakers in the past. Is just like if they
do make that you know, Buddy Healed, Miles Turner for Russ, and
a couple firsts like, then then this team is a little more interesting to
me. You can you can feel like a legit starting five the depths is
still gonna suck. It's it's very telling that want toisconoy Anderson looks like someone
who's really gonna matter, and he couldn't get off the Warriors bench most nights
last year. Like that's just the level of talent that is in the Lakers
rotation. So forty three assumes that Lebron and Anthony Davis are like certainly healthier
than last year, and that the supporting cast is slightly improved. I think
Beverly matters, but I'm still under. So it's not like I can sit
here and say like I'm over the moon about the Lakers. I was under
and I have them at thirty seven. I just I know that they have
they owe a swap to New Orleans. So there's just no reason for them
to be bad. So it's not like they're gonna sit Lebron in a d
and just suck. At the same time, unless they make the Russell Westbrook
move, there's no way. There's no reason for me to bet the under.
At least we can quibble over the record projections if we wanted to,
but I'm not. It's whether it's the Buddy Heel, the Miles Turner trade.
I had Lakers fans are mad that I suggested, like, would you
do a first round pick for Peartle and Richardson and McDermott if the Spurs would
take back Russ And I actually thought that that wasn't enough for the Spurs because
Ross's contract is so large. It's a single season contract, but it's so
large that you can't like you're and you're not rerouting it. You're acquiring him
to not use him, to tell him to go home, or you're not
going to remove him, and you're just waiving him or buying him out.
And that's why you need to be compensated for taking on the deal. And
I'm not saying the Lakers should like if if there's if you're of the mind
I don't want to give up these distant first a better deal will come along
in the future where we could use them. Fine, but like, let's
not pretend that it's absurd to think that you're gonna need to give up two
first round picks for a turner to get back you know, two players who
were gonna be in your rotation while jettisoning one who was just not a good
fit. And where just landing Lakers. They have more NBA players than they
did last year. But how like Anty Davis doesn't anthy Davis's chronic injury is
injuries. It's never one specific thing. It's just always injured all the time.
And he's not as injury prone and some people might think, but he
just misses games. He gets hanged up, and I was carrying this heavy
chip on his shoulder, So like, how how hard is that to do
every night? So I just I don't trust them, and I don't like
the fit of this roster where they still haven't they went they leaned into such
a guard heavy rotation right now, and they didn't have the resources to get
all these wings. But like, why are you loading up on all of
these guards? So especially Bald dominant ones Dennis Shrewder or Lonnie Walker the fourth.
So I'm just I'm not high on them. And if they hit the
over and don't trade Russell Westbrook, I will be floored. I want to
make that clear. I'll be floored. Same the Memphis Grizzlies. They're over
unders at forty eight point five. I will say I'm owing three the past
three offseason on the Memphis Grizzlies over under because they've cleared the over and I've
put the under all three times. Grant, where are you at on their
forty eight point five line, I'm under, I'm under. I think the
Jaren Jackson injury is significant. I think losing even if it's not you know,
the type of thing that you know, cause some huge chunk of games,
I think it matters given his history too. I think losing to Anthony
Melton is not nothing. I think losing Kyle Anderson even is not nothing.
I think this is a much thinner team than it used to be, and
it's a team that's going to depend on unproven players to a larger extent than
it did last year when it had so much success. And I also think
John Marant's gonna get hurt right, Like I don't. I mean, I
don't wish it, but like it's just it's just it's it's sort of how
I feel about Zion. I think just like every second we get with these
guys on the floor and healthy, I feel like is is I feel lucky
because it's just their playing style is just so violent and put so much stress
on the body, like it's tough. I don't know. I mean,
there's just certain guys like that. You can remember watching Derrick Rose, and
I think Westbrook is really the only guy, and he wasn't like the two
foot plant, hard stop explosion type of athlete. He was more of a
straight line guy. But all these like just you know, ferociously athletic,
like two foot jos, you know, hard pivot guys. It's tough.
And Marants you know, he's been hurt so and I don't think they're going
twenty in two or whatever ridiculous number that was in the games he misses this
year. I just I don't believe in that. I think that showed that
he was a suspect defender. But he's too good to run up that kind
of record without him. So I have the under I think there's still you
know, very much in the mix for a top four spot if some things
break right for them in the West. But yeah, it's it's it's not
like they weren't. I mean last year it was just such a such a
ride to get up to where they did. I think even just just a
little regression overall, I think from that crazy season is kind of in order
to I went under as well for most of the reasons that you stated,
and to I have him at forty six wins, and to pull them back
ten wins from last year, it's just like, might be fucking stupid,
because that just that drop off doesn't happen unless the team loses someone for an
entire year to this injury or loop like bleeds talent, which they didn't.
However, I do think, to add on what you said, I just
think they leaned too far into their internal development if you were looking to maximize
the current timeline, where if Jake la Ravia and David Roddy and Santi Aldama
are now all going to play, or two or three of those guys are
in a factor into the rotation. And I do think that not that they
overachieved last year, but the West was just like when you look at the
bottom and the Spurs I think had thirty seven wins last year and made the
play in there were there might be more easy games this year, but like
the middle of the pack from the King's on up is just going to be
absolutely brutal, especially if the Lakers are healthy and trying to where I don't
know if there's going to be as many easy victories. Can they just beat
up on the opponents that they're supposed to beat. Who are the opponents that
you're supposed to beat? Now there's you know, okay, see Utah,
Houston, San Antonio and after that, like every game could basically be a
war. So I recognize I'm pulling them back pretty far, but I think
they might have deliberately taken a step back to try and plan ahead for like
a future. But maybe Zaire Williams pops maybe Desmond Bane is another jump in
him. They burned me three straight years, that they might burn me a
fourth or at this point it's just I'm an idiot because I'd be owing four
for the past four years since I started doing this exercise. Now keep doubling
down, you'll be right eventually. That's That's how I look at this.
The Minnesota Timberwolves are up next, with an over under of fourty eight point
five. This was a this I'm not gonna lie was a tough one for
me. Grant, where did you land? Not as tough for me?
I went over. I just think I'm receptive to to like all the if
you want to go all the way back to like the particulars of the Rudy
Gobert transaction, like did they give up too much? Are we sure that
he's gonna age? Well, you know all that stuff. How's this going
to go? In the playoffs where we've seen Gobert be less effective, you
know, basically every year. It's not always his fault. I need to
belabor all the all the takes from various Utah playoff disappointments. But I think
all their real problems are playoff problems. And I think this is a regular
season over under, and you sort of have to like keep that in mind
and kind of split your thinking from how big of a contender is this team
versus is a team in a rack up a bunch of wins, and so
the Wolves are a team that I think Gobert is just you know, We've
talked about it, and everybody's talked about it. If he's on the floor,
you're going to defend roughly at a top five rade. It would be
surprising if you did not. This offense I think has immense potential. Both
ends of those things could be solved or rendered less effective in a postseason series
against a good team that can scout and exploit weaknesses. But that's a problem
for then. And I just think this is a team too that's had so
little success generally speaking, for so long that like kind of like Denver,
this isn't like a let's mess around and let's let's be cool getting in is
the fifth or sixth seed? I think I think Minnesota wants to win a
ton, and I think it's the type of team that has players that like
haven't won a ton, at least the guy most of the incumbents in Minnesota.
So I like them to go over. I like them to get to
like fifty two and be you know, maybe third in the West or potentially
higher depending on what happens with the Warriors and the Nuggets. I went did
I go under on this line? There's no way I went under on this
line. Apparently which just doesn't doesn't see I'm going over on this line because
I agree with you and I am high on the Timberwolves. I have questions
about the secondary ball handling, and like you said, when you have time
to game plan for specific teams in the postseason, I think it's fair to
be concerned about how this front court works out. But I also think that
Rudy gobert shortcomings have been overstated and a lot of it had to do with
who was in front of him, which now you have Auntie Edwards and Jane
McDaniels in front of you, which is a lot different they do. I
feel like they uncomfortably need a big year from D'Angelo Russell since they're gonna have
to stagger they're two best ball handlers, and Edwards and Delo or you're really
gonna need Jail and Noel to pop, or maybe you get a great season
from Jordan mclaughland. At this point, you need to rely on Brent Forbes
or Austin Rivers at all. Chris Finch is an offensive genius, and so
I think that could work out. I think this team is gonna flirt with,
if not clear fifty in the red I just think they're gonna be a
regular season powerhouse still. So I don't know why I had it marked as
the under. I think I had them winning forty eight games and the standing,
so I need to pull back a win from somebody. I'd go to
Memphis winning forty five before i'd stick the under here with Minnesota, though,
Yeah, I think I agree with that. Do you want to go first
on the Pelicans? I feel like I don't want to steal your thunder.
Look, I am going the over on the Pelicans at forty four and a
half. My hot take is that, and I don't know if it's a
hot take anymore because I feel like people have jumped aboard the bandwagon, which
was I early? Was I on time? Was I late? I honestly
don't know. I'm not trying to get credit for that. But this is
a team to me that's probably gonna win like fifty games. If you can
tell me, he's I on place in sixty or something along those lines.
Willie Green had them defending their asses off in transition after that three and sixteen
start. You have a lot of talent that just fits well together. There's
probably concerns about their shooting but Fred Vinson is there. Trey Murphy the third
look great to close the season, and during the playoffs, Herb Jones was
already hitting just enough of his threes. They could really field some units too.
That fuck up shit defensively when you look at Herb Jones. When you
have Dyson Daniels there this year, Trey Murphy there, Jose Alvarado there,
you could throw those four out and then play Zion and let's see what happens.
Having Larry Dn's junior also gives you the ability to play Zion at the
five without him really being your five. I think Zion and Jonas Vound Tunist
will be a great fit on offense because he made it work with Steven Adams
on offense, and Jonas vun and Tunis gives you more stretch and then more
on ball skills where I will fall for Jonas voun and Tunis pump fakes from
the comfort of my own home, I would just dip off the couch.
I am so high on this team. It's deep. There are concerns,
of course, can they defend, like sustain their defense at a high level
enough In lineups that have Ingram cj and Zion I think most of that's going
to depend on how much does Zion improve on defense. Bendingram had a pretty
good year defensively last year. CJ is what he is on defense, and
then Zion just on the ball. Away from the ball, he need to
kind of improve everywhere, but he is gonna help you rebound and end possessions
and having human vouancunis on the floor at the same time, you should probably
be grabbing like ninety percent of opponent misses. So I am absurdly high on
this team that I not only consider a regular season threat, but a potential
matchup nightmare for so many teams in the playoffs. So it was an easy
at forty four and a half, It was an easy over for me.
Yeah, I'm about as curious about what this particular team is going to look
like as I am about any any other. Did you know that last year
they finished per cleatingly last they finished better on defense than offense. It's it's
it's close, and it's kind of marginal. But like that blew my mind
because my whole question I was I was ready to be contrarian and push back
not just against you, but against the rising tide of like Pelicans optimism,
you know, And my pushback was gonna be, like, tell me why
the def ense is any better? And even if this is a top five
offense, which is like, I don't know how it's not like honestly,
with the easy baskets they're gonna get and the free throws they're gonna generate.
Just this is all just Zion, honestly. But no, I'm over too.
I'm not as high over as you are. I just the only thing
I would add is, you know they I think they got some some like
tricky decisions to make still, and these are things you would love to have
solved way before this, but Zion just hasn't been healthy. But like,
what is your optimal what is the optimal way to deploy him on both ends?
Because like you still could play him technically at center and just totally give
up on defense, but score one hundred and forty points per hundred possessions.
There's something insane, right, Like or you could you leave Jonnis in there
and you just you know, make it work defend. I just I'm That's
why I'm so curious. I don't know how it's gonna look, But there's
just so much talent here, and I think Willie Green's a good coach that
if they if they don't win in the high forties, somebody got hurt,
right, Like, I just don't I don't understand how how it happens.
And that feels crazy to say because they won thirty six games last year,
but it's just a it's a different team. Zion changes everything, and and
so yeah, I'm optimistic. I just I just it makes me scared to
think, like the Pelicans are gonna be really good this fast, right,
I totally get the trepidation, but like there has to be a progress,
Like some teams are going to explode the Grizzlies last year, and the Pelicans
could be that be that team, And so I don't think it's egregious if
we miss. I don't think it's an egregious if they stay healthy the entire
season and win like thirty one games, and yeah, we can, we
can grow. But I'm so, I'm I'm so. The Pelicans and the
Calves were like my siren songs this year. I think they're gonna probably be
way better than people are crediting. We're onto okase though at twenty three and
a half, which is very very low considering when you look, they won
twenty four last year, So where are you at grant point, I'm comfortably
under I just like so I have. They're the only team that I have
projected to win in the teams. I give them nineteen wins. I had
them tied with Houston for a little bit, and you know, you could
talk me into Utah or India or whatever, depending on how things shake out
towards the end. I feel like they're the worst team. I feel like
they're the team that is most committed to losing on purpose and has proven a
willingness to do a lot of stuff to that end, more so than most
other teams. Like, you know, we can joke about like well Houston
might you know, shut somebody down, or Utah is gonna totally sell everything
off, Like the Thunder know how to do this. They know the guys,
they know how to just play just tank commanders. They know how to
like everyone's gonna hate it, but like Pokashevski was just like not so much
last year, but the year before. Just like they they will let guys
play under the auspices of like and not. It's not a ridiculous thing,
like, let's give them reps, let's let them develop, but like they're
just killing the bottom line and it's a win win in which is ironic because
they're trying to lose. So I think the Thunder are going to be the
worst team. I think they're gonna have the worst record, and I think
they're cool with that. I think they want that, and then maybe this
whole thing is over starting next year. But I think there's one more year
of just you. You couldn't. You can't convince me there's a team that
is trying to lose harder than the Thunder will I could probably. I think
you might be discounting what the Jazz will do mid season a little bit if
you want to give them that title, or even they're good now, the
Jazz are like the Jazz are perfectly okay. They have a lot of NBA
players right now. Yes, I'm just saying they're not going to by the
end of the season. I have them under as well, And I would
have been pretty hostile towards anyone who thought there was another year of tanking and
the Thunder. If Chet Holmgren didn't have the right foot injury, I think
them consolidating three picks additional first round picks into Uchman Jang at least showed some
immediacy here, and I'm not looking forward to another season of teams monitoring Shay
Gilder's Alexander's situation because apparently being twenty three in a market that's not California in
New York and under contract for five years is a situation worth monitoring. He
seems happy and informed when you when you look at the interviews. He had
to exit last year and then coming into this year, maybe that changes that
they're losing. But I'll boil it down to this, because the chet home
grin injury, Like, let's just insert the Sam Presty laser beam, I
mean dot jpeg here, because I give them until Christmas before on their scorecard,
Victor Weman Yama is listed as DMP on loan to Metropolitan ninety two.
And that's how agreed, just that the thunder are gonna end up tanking.
I don't even we don't need to expand it's just and good like that's the
situation that they're in this team. A little bit more interesting the Phoenix Suns
fifty two and a half is they're over under. I'm under, and I
don't feel good about it because they want so many freaking games last year,
and I mean the principles are back. Other than Jay Crowder, who'll be
gone, I will well, Willy Well, I mean maybe on the team,
he's not gonna play. I think just a few things, right,
It's it's nothing like, it's nothing earth shattering. Chris Paul's a year older.
I'm not gonna weigh. I'm not gonna weigh the postseason flame out just
because I think now we've heard enough people whisper about a COVID outbreak that it
feels like that's just such a clean explanation for how shitty they look that I'm
willing to at least entertain it, so I do. It is a massive
dropping wins, though down I have them down to fifty one, so they're
kind of narrowly beneath the under. I think, I wonder how many teams
have lost thirteen more games year over a year, Like it can't be a
lot, especially one that didn't lose yeah like one of their top four players.
Yeah, this is why I feel terrible about it. But and the
other the other reason is it's all like stupid gut or you know, feelings.
I don't have any statistical support for why they're gonna lose so many more
games. It's like Chris Paul's older DeAndre Ayton is talking to Monty Williams.
Now, that's cool. That seems like a situation that's not optimal. I'm
not a huge fan of their depth, especially if it is Cam Johnson that
winds up in the starting lineup. I think you lose a lot of shooting
on the bench, like but that even even that is getting into like more
rational explanations. I just kind of feel like the Sun's had a couple shots
at this thing and they may have missed it a little bit. And some
of the vibes. We haven't even mentioned the Sarver thing. I don't know
how much that matters. It's just kind of like there's just a handful of
things that just I don't feel good about this team being close to what it
was last year. Not a great explanation, but that's just kind of where
I'm at. No, I think it's fair, and they are I don't
want to say one they are one injury away from a catastrophe. I don't
mean, oh, Chris Paul Devin Booker gets injured, if DeAndre Eton goes
down, kle Bridges goes down, like the fucked because they're so shallow.
I mean, they have guys on their bench that you can like in campaign.
I really am in love with Ishmae Ishwayne Wright. But like there's talk
of like Jacque Landale looks so good, and are you relying on Tory Craig.
Are you relying on Damien Lee josh A Kogi once he's healthy. It
gets pretty iffy after your top five. But like as I don't trust the
Lakers to make a move this season to change out Russell Westbrook. I believe
the Suns are going to do something and that maybe it's not an all in
trade because they probably want to keep a lot of their future picks. But
like you attached Jay crowd or salary in a first round pick this year,
does that get you Gary Trent Jr. Who I don't believe that the Raptors
are going to look at as a long term guy and that immediately sort of
just drums up their total. And I'm looking at they were a regular season
machine last year. If they're gonna get relatively good health, there are players
on this team who can get better. Maybe not Devin Booker, but it
might be Devin Booker, DeAndre Ayton, mcal Bridges, Cam Johnson, one
or two of those guys is gonna get material materially better given the points of
their career that they're currently entering. So looking at the top, like they
could have one of the best starting five, they will have one of the
best starting fives in the league, or they should. It's fair to worry
about how will Cam Johnson defend and rebound at the four? But like,
I just stn't think they're gonna be really good. And I went over,
this is the moral of that. That was a roundabout way of getting there,
because fifty three wins, it's eleven fewer. And so it's like,
you have to tell me that if Chris Paul plays in fewer games and you
lose Jay Crowder, that those that combination was worth eleven losses. I just
can't or twelve losses to go under. I can't get there. And so
I'm not going to factor in an injury for iron Man, Mchael Bridges or
even Devin Booker at this point or eight. And so I went over and
I actually feel this is one of my best bets right now. How about
that You're gonna be right about You're gonna be right about this, I can
already tell, but I'm gonna stick to it. I'm not going to back
down. The Portland Trailblazers are at thirty nine point five. What do you
have them, grant? Where do you have? This is like a yawn
of an over because I think this is just a five hundred team, So
I have I think they're gonna win forty one games, but like the difference
realistically between you know, thirty seven and forty two is just not that meaningful.
This team is in that range. I don't see how they get a
lot better than that. And I mean, honestly, the defense I think
should be better, so it's hard for me to imagine them being worse than
that. I will say that, like, you know, looking at last
year is less instructive for the Blazers than it is for almost any other team
because like nobody was there and they were trying to lose and whatever. But
I think the offense should be great, I think the defense should be better,
So I'm going over. But it's not like you know, I think
they're gonna be like in just a dog fight for you know, the nine
ten spot in the West. So so they're they're just right, just a
total middle of the pack outfit. To me, I really really, really
really really hope friend of the podcast HOWR Bone Biggs isn't listening or watching this
because I went under And part of that is because I'm confused by them.
But the West is brutal. I don't know if they have another move in
them to get better, and they are just their depth is dependent on a
lot of just ifs. And you look at their backup five rotation where it's
Drew U Banks or you're gonna play some trendon Watford there. This is a
team that needs a lot maybe from Justice Winslow where you're needing to see your
little to stay healthy. I'm not going to use the excuse. Oh,
they've done the three guard thing before with Anthony Simon's, Powell and Dame,
and now they have GP two Simon's and Dame. Is that that much better?
I think it could be because of how good GP two is on defense
and how much bigger he plays on both offense and defense that his size.
It's just they're good and like the top six on their roster, maybe even
seven. Because I am a nas little guy. I believe in it and
if Dame is healthy and look, I think Dame will be fine. By
the way, he's older. Last year, did you know this was the
first time in his career basically it's with him plus or minus two minutes that
he didn't play at least twenty four hundred minutes. Wow. I just they
feel a little shallow and they're best defenders, none of them are really If
you trust Nurkich, it's sort of your backline protector. You think that Jeremy
Grant's gonna be able to make enough and Nas are gonna be able to make
enough place behind him. Sure, I don't necessarily. I'm just not high
on their depth, and I think they could find them. They could be
one of the surprise pivots of the season. Where no, we don't trade
Damian Lillard and I don't even know it's even trade eligible this season after signing
his extension. Doesn't matter, not where you trade Damian Lillard. But oh
we might pull back go for this top pick again. Maybe we're looking at
trading you know, Jeremy Grant or something. They're just one of my candidates
to be a sneaky tank job and that's not Oh and he can be Dame
could be traded in January. So I'm mistaken there. I forgot about that.
I don't think they're gonna trade Dame. But this is just a team
to me that I think is it threatens to get lost in the shuffle of
what is an incredible Western Conference this year, at least on papers so far.
Yeah, the Kings thirty three and a half. These are your Kings.
You you they're there. You have the Warriors and then the Kings.
They're your Kings. Yeah, I don't I'd like to have a custody dispute
about the Kings. I don't know if I meet them, uh I,
but I will say I'm going over because that's such a low. I mean,
thirty three and a half, that's that's that's low. So I'm going
over. I think I think there's a very good chance that the Kings are
really good offensively, and you know, even and even saying that, like
the Fox Sabonis spacing crunch is a real thing. But they did just surround
those guys with shooters because I think they're gonna field a lot of lineups that
are Fox and Sabonis, and you've got Malik Monk and Kevin Herder at Kevin
Herder and Harrison Barnes and so like, that's three guys that are gonna make
spot up threes at solid clips. They won't. This team will not stop
anybody. I think this team has a really good chance to be a bottom
three defense, which is not new territory for Sacramento. So I actually I
think you know that. You could tell me they're going to finish a game
ahead of Portland and I'd be like, yeah, okay, that's that's realistic.
I think they're a little worse most likely than say the Blazers, who
I had had a five hundred clip. But I think the Kings are better
than than thirty three and a half wins. And I really think this is
a team that is not going to tank if they're anywhere close. I think
they're going to push for wins, and with a lot of other teams go
in the other direction, I think that kind of uh creates some opportunities.
I agree with you on the Kings. They were an easy over for me,
which is almost uncomfortable. But even if you're trying to factor in like
a King's win wins tax here, this line suggests that they're gonna win.
To hit the the under, they would have to be worse than three of
the past four years, with the exception of last year. The previous three
seasons they won, some of them were shortened. They won more than the
equivalent of thirty three games. And I don't know how you look at this
roster and think that they're worse than like those teams. They're gonna be really
good on offense. Like you said, we saw the Sibbonus and Fox thing
work without a ton of shooting last year. They have a ton of shooting
now. I think the only argument, aside from injuries was the disclaimer for
everyone is you think they're gonna be in the conversation to say, you know
what, sab Bonus is extension eligible. We shouldn't have made that trade.
We suck, We're moving him. We're gonna find someone to move Fox,
and we're like gonna start this whole thing over, which I would be.
I feel like the Blazers are more of a candidate to do that than the
Kings are at this point. And so this was a pretty easy over for
me. I do have for the record, the Kings, the Blazers,
and the Lakers are all at like thirty seven wins. For me, Yeah,
no, I think that range is right. It would be such a
Kings thing, a Kang's thing if they decided to tank and they just are
doing it. Any year where there's like six other teams that are trying to
do it, it's just the wrong year to try to lose. Let's hope
that doesn't happen. After the games, we have the San Antonio Spurs at
twenty two and a half. I'm not sure if this line presumes like Greg
Popovich will be suiting up a game for them, but twenty two and a
half is low. It is low, and that's why I went over again.
Totally possible that they're the team that just really goes for it right,
really just packs it in. I think Popovich's presence, I don't know if
this is there's this is based on nothing. I think Popovich's presence will prevent
just the most egregious, like awful level of tanking. So like, I
think they're gonna win twenty five games, which is but I think it's gonna
be just enough to keep them up over that twenty two and a half line.
But I just I mean, when Kelton Johnson had that shoulder thing in
the in training camp, it was just like, Oh, here we go.
This is gonna get so bad. But it seems like he's going to
be fine, and like he's a quality player. Peardle's a quality player.
They got role Richardson McDermott, They got guys who can play. Devin Vassel
can shoot, like there's there's NBA players on this team. So unless they
get real crazy with trying to lose, I don't see them quiet as down,
as quite as low as like you're Houston's in okay SE's at least in
my opinion, I went under because I think that they're gonna be egregious in
tanking. And here's why, I think Greg Popovic fucking loves it. He
seems just rejuvenated. He's been coaching younger guys and been willing to experiment.
He even said they were asking him about a starting lineup. This was a
few days ago, so it might have changed, but they asked him about
he said, well, we know, Yako Peurdle's gonna start, and then
I'll figure out the rest later and this team is gonna experiment like wild and
I'm so here for it. I also think you have to look at the
short companies of the roster. They it's not just because they don't have a
blue chip cornerstone. They have a lot of very intriguing young players. Kelton
Johnson. I love Jeremy sow and I think he's a dark horse Rookie of
the Year pick along with Easan when you look at the roles that they might
have that allow the volume necessarily end or the convo Devin Vassell and I love
Josh Primo as well, but like they're all either so early in their careers
like a Primo or sow In, like Jeremy sow In and Blake Wesley and
Malachai Brandham, or they're just not the guy in Devin Vassell or Charlton Johnson.
Where is the primary ball handling coming from the Only way this team can
generate offense by playing faster than everyone else, which they will try to do.
I just they're going to be Knights where it's going to be rough.
And the other thing is they have between Richardson Peardle and depending on how you
feel about Doug McDermot, but let's use Richardson and Peardle. They have two
of the most attractive trade chips for contenders because they shouldn't cost a ton.
Maybe Purdle cost you a late first round pick, but they're both expiring.
So if you don't want to get married to them for long and just want
to have the inside track on deciding whether to resign either one of them,
I think the Spurs are gonna move both. If you if you said between
McDermott, Peurtle and Josh Richardson, the over under on the number of guys
still being there past the trade deadline is one point five, I would take
the over. And I think the Spurs, the Spurs, the Pacers,
and the Thunder are gonna be the teams that I think really lean into this
thing from from day one of the season, which brings us to another team
in the Utah Jazz. At twenty four and a half, I got them
under narrowly under. I think everything we've we've mentioned the Jazz several times,
I think I think, as it stands today, this is not a roster
that's gonna win fewer than than twenty four and a half games. But like
you've said, and and like I think all logic points to the guys that
are on the team right now will not be on the team for most of
this year, like I think, And like if if, especially if the
winds start to pile up, you know, if they win, if they
start out like six and eight or something like, that's a problem. So
I think, you know, they'll get there. I think the main thing
here really is, you know, the Jazz won the offseason. They collected
ten million future firsts, but like none of those are going to be as
valuable as the pick they could get on their own right now, right that.
That's both because they have total control over where they finish. You know,
you still have the flattened lottery, yats, but they're in charge of
that. And because of who's potentially available at number one, Danny Ainge is
not messing around, Like this is clear that like we're going to do everything
that we can to just build this stockpile, and with the aim of getting
a player like when Yama, who's going to be available right now if you
suck bad enough, like do maximize your chances of getting this guy. So
I don't know, I don't know what the number would have had to be
for me to go over, but but it's it's under for me, and
and I think other than okay, see, the level of commitment to really
we're gonna lose this year is it's hard to top. When you're talking about
Utah. I agree with everything you said, which is why this might be
surprising. But I went over because I don't know how long it's going to
take for them to get into that gear, just because they have so many
good veterans right now, and con Jordan Clarkson, Malik Beasley, Larry Marketing,
Colin Sexton is good himself, who they might keep long they're going to
keep long term or at least through this season. And so yes, they'll
come up point where they shut it down. But it just feels like it
might be a hair too late to compete with the under for this. And
I'm not saying that necessarily sabotages them, because look, Moose could still happen,
but we'll know if they don't start shutting down or really curbing the minutes
of their better players early, or start moving people. I'm not talking at
the trade deadline. I'm talking before Thanksgiving. They might just stumble in to
the over here and be a twenty five twenty six win team, and I
have them at twenty five just by virtue of that. So it's a combination
of I think jazz fans that are saying people don't understand how good they're going
to be aren't considering enough how much Utah is going to actively try to suck.
But I also think that people who assume they're going to suck aren't accounting
enough for well, they're going to be at least a quarter of the season
where they have a bunch of real NBA players in the rotation. So I
went over, but I'm it's like a cautiously unsettling over. Yeah, we're
one win apart. Basically, right, this was great everyone. Please remember
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underscore us for his by quarterly weet and until next time, I gave you
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might single handedly, potentially if they're lucky, push the Mavericks towards their over Frank Blakeena