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You're listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival
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Financial Survival Network now more than ever.

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Welcome you are listening to watching the
Financial Survival Network. I'm Carrie Letts.

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Is it us? I'm here with
Craig hemke Ef Metals Report dot com.

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Is it us? Or are we
really deep fakes? And if it's just

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a big AI simulation, Craig,
Hey, one sim to another. Here,

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here we are. If it was
a couple of deep fakes, it

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wouldn't be our two mugs on here, that's for sure. If probably true,

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it would be Brad Pitt and George
planning right right right now, right

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and in the meantime where in the
midst of a bankruptcy, a bank banking

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bankruptcy, a banking collapse, it's
global. I mean, what's keeping the

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banks in China from shuddering right now? Their equivalent of the FED is pumping

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out unlimited amounts of currency units.
The same thing with the EU. All

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those banks are insolvent, they're all
ready to collapse. I mean, I

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guess in the technical sense the big
banks aren't in the US aren't on the

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brink of collapse, but there's certainly
at a weekend state after what's happened.

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It is a laughable notion what's being
put forth here on May Day about how,

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oh, this first Republic things over
with, so now it's all good

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gerry, don't worry, everything's fine, pot mark it sells off of the

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dollar rallies and oh come on,
manum two things on that one. The

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I guess the beginning stages of this
crisis have come from all of the unprecedented

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rate hikes by the FED, taking
us from fifty basis points in the ten

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year note to four underd and fifty
basis points the real I mean run of

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the two year note from nothing to
five percent in about eighteen months. Right,

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they got so far behind the curve
because of their transitory bs. They

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tried to lay on everybody, but
then they run off on this unprecedented scale

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of hi hi as if don't worry, everything's fine. I mean, they're

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just making it up as they go, and they're still making it up today

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with treasure officials and Jamie Diamond and
the rest try to sair. Now that's

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it. Banks are sitting on a
trillions really of dead that is miss or

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I guess miss priced on their ballot
sheets will be a way to put it.

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After the financial crisis, they Fasby
came up with the ability for them

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to arc bonds to maturity. They
have ones that are in a basket that

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say they're eligible for sale, and
they got to mark those to market.

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But then they can put others in
a basket that are marked to maturity.

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Well, the problem is you get
a rush for you know, people want

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to take their money out, which
now can happen in a matter of minutes

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the way everybody's online. And the
ones that you don't think you're ever going

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to have to sell and you're carrying
them on your books at par they're actually

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worth eighty cents. Now you're upside
down. So the notion that the only

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two banks carried there there's two.
Oh, there's only two, right,

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there's only two, Silicon Valley Bank
and First pub they are the only two.

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Okay, fine, the other part
of this well then, actually,

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now there's three parts The other part
then, is commercial real estate, which

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you and I've been talking about since
COVID in twenty twenty. This was eventually

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going to be a problem not only
just from an economic slowdown, but all

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these businesses that with people now getting
used to working from home, they don't

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need ten thousand square feet anymore,
they only need five all of that stuff.

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Who does most of that commercial real
estate lending? That's your local bank,

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your first National Bank of Pittsburgh,
right, Okay, So this is

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a problem at the local community bank
level. That's only going to get worse.

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That's going to create even as as
that crisis worse, that's going to

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create more bank failures. Third piece
of this, then, what's the natural

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in a natural response, if your
local banker, the guy in the Blewes

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suit, in the red tie,
he's going to just start calling in things

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to say, you know what,
we gotta lay a low here for a

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while just to protect ourselves at our
venerable institution. We're not We're going to

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tighten our lending standards, are not
going to make as many loans as we

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used to. And so the whole
thing has this cycle of tightening and making

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the economy even worse, and then
you spin it all back to what you

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know. The notion going around today
is the FED higher for longer and everything's

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fine and strong economy. Right right, we'll see about that, hey,

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But you know, like I'm looking
at the money supply figures M two and

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basically it peaked in the July of
twenty twenty two, and it's been going

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down slightly slightly. But we can't
afford a declining money is applied when debt

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is going up and all the fallouts
are taking place. I mean, it's

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kind of counterintuitive. The other point
I'd like to make is there's another stool

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of this lug that could conceivably collapse, and that is who makes all of

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these big, big office building mortgages. Besides the regionals. It's the insurance

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companies. Yeah right, No one's
talking about the insurance companies, but I

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guarantee you under Dodd Frank they are
considered to be a vital non bank institution

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that the FED and the Treasury can
bail out up upon concern. The only

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thing is they don't have to mark
their mortgages to market, but they're holding

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a lot of the paper because when
you go by go to any city and

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take a ride downtown. It's all
insurance company names on those buildings and banks,

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and those insurance companies aren't occupying all
that space, right, there's an

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insurance company issue. And there's a
difference when there's a run on an insurance

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company than a bank, obviously,
but the effects can be equally as devastating.

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So what are the odds that these
insurance companies are turned into banks just

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the way the big brokers were,
right, wait No. Nine, So

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that then the Fed they can go
to discount window and get money, right,

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And actually I remember many of them
still are. Remember like even Mutual

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of Omaha back in two thousand and
eight became the Mutual of Omah Bank like

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a munch exactly so that they could
all cony up at the discount window or

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whatever they get their hands on overnight
cash whenever they needed it. And again,

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I guess to relate this to the
precious metals, I mean, at

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this point it's just wait, we'll
just wait this out. I mean,

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they give you this garbage day after
day, and the metals do their thing,

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go up, go down, day
after day, and it's it's silly,

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but I think we I mean Carrie. We've it's like the old adage,

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we've seen this movie. We know
how it ends, so why aren't

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we even paying attention during act two? Right? And it's like, Okay,

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I remember this is where they do
this, and this is where she

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said that, and he says this, and when you know how it ends

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in the end anyway, and that's
that's where this is all headed. They

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can pretend and paper over on a
daily basis still put a headed, but

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it's a triple headed issue. The
move and interest rates has created ballanshet issues,

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easy runs on banks because of where
we are in twenty twenty three.

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From a technology standpoint, commercial real
estate is an absolute building disaster, no

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pun intended building. And then ultimately
that causes banks to lend even less,

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which makes capital, you know,
working capital, everything else harder to come

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by. And it just exacerbates what
was already going to be a recession and

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the slowdown. And again this is
anybody can see this. What you can't

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be is misled by somebody that probably
has an agenda, like a politician or

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a banker, you know. Heck, Kara I, just before we start

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recording, says something on Twitter about
the recent holdings. I don't know,

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I can't remember which senator it was. But then on March sixteenth blew out

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of his first Republic Bank Corp stock
right before it crashed. On March twenty

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two, bought a whole bunch of
JP Morgan. So what they didn't know

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all of this obviously six weeks ago, you know. So everybody has this

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interest, you know, their own
personal self interest regarding you know, regardless

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of the ethics of the morals or
the laws, and they're going to say

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whatever they can to kind of front
run everybody, you know, to protect

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themselves. So don't fall for this
crap about it's all over and everything's fine.

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And one last thing, well,
we were two days away front of

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the FED rate hike. We just
had the second largest bank failure in the

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US history in terms of size of
their deposit base, and yet the FEDS

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something wrong with this picture, my
goodness, gracious. So so how long

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does the whole charade keep going?
Though? Is the question. We've been

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in this situation many many times,
you and I together over the year,

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and it keeps going right right well, and again, as I relate to

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this to the medals, you recall
from our previous discussions. This year.

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You know, I write a thing
in the first week of January every year,

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just if anything, just to kind
of make myself think the year through

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and then hold myself accountable. And
so what I wrote in January this year

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talked about, hey, look,
none of this FED hiking higher for longer

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crap. The FED will be pausing
and then cutting by summertime, not all

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this bank stuff, notwithstanding just that
the economy was going to roll over,

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and we have an election year next
year, and what do you think Bernie

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Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are going to
have to say about Powell if all of

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a sudden we're deep in a recession
of the first quarter of election year,

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right, and he wants to keep
his job. So it's obvious what's going

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to happen. And we've again,
as you just said, Carrie, we've

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seen this before. You and I
have talked about this before. In twenty

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ten, there were the green shoots
of the economy member all that crap,

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green shoots, green shoots, and
everything was fine, and they were going

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to normalize rates and flatten out the
balance sheet. And what'd you get by

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the economy slowed down in the first
half of that year, and by November

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twenty ten we had QWEE number two
up within the medals. Twenty eighteen.

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Everything's great, We're gonna keep shrinking
the ballot sheet. We're gonna do normalize

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interest rates. Everything starts to seize
up and collapse. There's no liquidity by

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June of nineteen or cutting rates up
go the medals first part of this year.

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Oh, everything's great. We're gonna
normalize the ballot sheet. Come on,

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man, Yeah, so we're right
on track. History is shown over

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the last eight rate hike cycles.
The period of time between the last hike

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and the first cut is about seventy
five days. So either the class either

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they don't hike on Wednesday and the
clock we're already six weeks into it,

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or they do hike Weddingsday and we're
on a schedule now looking at maybe July

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for the first cut. That sounds
about right. I like that. I

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think you're one hundred percent on the
money, Matt. I can't see it.

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I can't see it any other way. It might be a little bit

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before, it might be a little
bit after, but I would stake my

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money on July. And as long
as we're in the prediction business today,

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I will predict right now bitcoin.
Let the currency has been on a tear.

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They're doing great, all the believers. I mean you talk about gold

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bugs, well we got bitcoin bugs, and they believe that it's going to

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infinity. Right. But there's a
little event coming up in Miami, the

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Miami Bitcoin Conference of twenty twenty three. It's coming up eighteen to five twenty.

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Set your clock because it's going to
crash. I mean, this is

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always the best indicator is the Bitcoin
conference. And a chair will get lots

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of hate mail over this, but
I'm telling you it's going to happen.

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I know it before. You know. Twenty seventeen, it happened. Last

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year, it happened and get ready
yep again, does it mean it's going

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straight to zero? But you're absolutely
right. The big holders know that there's

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gonna be all this retail interest in
buying bitcoin. Again. Well, if

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there's all this retail interest buying,
somebody is selling, right, And so

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yeah, you're right, that's happened
before. That's a word of the wise.

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Yep, yep. I'll be surprised
if it doesn't. And the chart

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is looking really weak too. If
you believe in such things apply to cryptocurrencies

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and we're on the brink. What
about the central bank digital currency? Yeah?

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Is that coming? Are we just
the all acting paranoid or is it

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real? It's very real. People
have watched you and I talked for the

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last ten years. We'll remember how
many times we talked about the war on

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cash, right to get rid of
physical cash, and even in COVID,

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well it carries germs we've got right
in cash. We wouldn't want that to

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happen. No, And you know, and it was always the only people

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00:14:00,200 --> 00:14:03,600
that use hundred dollar bills carrier like
drug dealers and bookie right, who else

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would you use it? When you
when you got a card when you get

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and so they're eliminating that bit of
your sovereignty and and but and then you

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know, and we've seen instances like
you know, like go buy a gun

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with your visa card, you know, and it's noted with a certain code.

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Yeah, okay, So this war
on cash has been going on for

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a decade. This central bank digital
currency is obviously a part of that.

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I agree. Whether it gets too
and I guess it probably will, I

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don't know how quickly it'll get there. But whether it gets to this draconian,

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you know, horrible dystopian future where
you know, you got to get

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the government's approval to buy a pound
of bananas, you know, with your

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centricy, with your currency. Whether
it gets to that, we'll see.

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But I think for now why they're
in such a rush to roll it out

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as so they can rescue these banks. You remember, like, um,

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it's Congress that has the spending power, right, and then the Fed buys

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the bonds and then you get the
cash out in society and all that kind

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of stuff. Remember back when everything
was collapsing in two thousand and eight and

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it was bank after bank. I
remember the day that all of a sudden

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on CNBC it was Goldman's turn.
They were coming for Goldman. Well,

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then stopped the presses. That was
the end of that. Now it was

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time for tark And remember the first
time they rolled up to Capitol Hill about

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TARPA was seven or billion dollars and
failed. Yeah, they had to get

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authorization and it failed, and oh, Mark, it's melted down all this

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year. And then they ran up
the ben burnanc up there to scare the

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ship and crap out everybody. You
know, Wall Street, do Main Street

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and every you know, oh,
we got to pass this seven hundred billion

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00:15:41,399 --> 00:15:45,240
dollars. Okay. What a CBDC
will do is it allow the FED to

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00:15:45,360 --> 00:15:48,960
kind of circumvental that. You know, you get an outlet like this First

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00:15:48,960 --> 00:15:54,000
Republic Bank, but that's too big, your local again, first National Bank

208
00:15:54,000 --> 00:15:58,960
of whatever, and they've got three
billion dollars in deposits and four billion dollars

209
00:15:58,960 --> 00:16:03,120
worth of liabilities and they need a
billion dollars in liquidity to get right side

210
00:16:03,200 --> 00:16:07,159
up again. The FED, through
a cbdc'll just pop them a billion dollars

211
00:16:07,200 --> 00:16:11,360
of ones and zeros and nobody ever
even has to know about it. I

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00:16:11,399 --> 00:16:15,080
think that's that's the initial purpose of
those things. Oh yeah, Well,

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00:16:15,279 --> 00:16:21,720
and when you want to spur demand, because everything depends upon demand. He

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00:16:22,159 --> 00:16:27,519
you got you got five thousand dollars
worth of the CBDC in your Yeah.

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00:16:29,080 --> 00:16:33,200
Never, it's a limited time offer. If you spend all five thousand now,

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00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:37,600
we'll give you another thousand, right, if you don't the freshness date.

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00:16:37,840 --> 00:16:41,440
You know, they're only eight money
is going to have a freshness date

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00:16:41,519 --> 00:16:45,799
now and you have that expiration?
Are you reminding me carry I was last

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00:16:45,840 --> 00:16:48,679
time I was mowing my law and
I was doing it on my John Dear

220
00:16:48,720 --> 00:16:52,960
a little, writing a lot more. You know, I bought that sucker

221
00:16:52,039 --> 00:16:55,879
when we moved into our house in
two thousand and eight. And I use

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00:16:56,000 --> 00:17:00,759
my George Bush stimulus check. I
got twenty four hundred dollar check from the

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00:17:00,799 --> 00:17:03,799
Treasury and the mail, and you
were supposed to go out and spend it.

224
00:17:03,839 --> 00:17:07,839
Do you remember this, right,
you're required? Yeah, it was.

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00:17:07,000 --> 00:17:11,839
It was stimmidd deficit spending stimulus.
You had to go out and stimulate

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00:17:11,839 --> 00:17:15,880
the economy. Here's some money and
go spend it. Which is again,

227
00:17:15,920 --> 00:17:18,559
so it's not like this is unprecedented. They'll just do it now in a

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00:17:18,559 --> 00:17:22,559
different manner, okay, And you're
absolutely right that's how to work. Well,

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I'm expecting they're also the Fed's going
to take a book from the way

230
00:17:27,319 --> 00:17:32,640
banking was in the seventies and the
eighties to get you to open a new

231
00:17:32,640 --> 00:17:40,119
account. They're going to give toaster
ovens irons um. I remember our Mitzvah

232
00:17:40,200 --> 00:17:44,039
had all this money. We opened
up like eight different accounts. I got

233
00:17:44,119 --> 00:17:48,880
like a clock radio not the name
uses I'll probably do not screens, right,

234
00:17:49,440 --> 00:17:55,559
all right? And your CBDC currency
account today and get a free sixty

235
00:17:55,599 --> 00:18:00,319
five in lat screen. There you
go. That's exactly right from Charles Bastards.

236
00:18:00,680 --> 00:18:06,799
I mean they pay nothing. They
can go by one year. Uh

237
00:18:06,839 --> 00:18:11,200
it's you know, one year t
bill for five percent. But yet you

238
00:18:11,319 --> 00:18:14,599
walk in and they would they'll give
you one percent on a five year CD

239
00:18:15,359 --> 00:18:19,279
or a couple of pennies on your
checking account or Jerry they were they're charging

240
00:18:19,359 --> 00:18:26,880
is now the highest interest rate on
credit cards ever? Yeah, ever the

241
00:18:26,920 --> 00:18:32,839
Hanies or they're late seventies. I
mean it's criminals, so they you know,

242
00:18:33,039 --> 00:18:36,119
but you know they all get bailed
out in the end because you know

243
00:18:36,119 --> 00:18:41,759
it's who you know, I guess
bailout nation. But yeah, it's it's

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00:18:41,960 --> 00:18:45,119
uh, it's going to get real
interesting. You know, all this that

245
00:18:45,200 --> 00:18:49,039
they come up with. They need
LEEI. Cooker to come back because he

246
00:18:49,119 --> 00:18:53,079
was the master marketer and that he
could sell anything to anyone. You know,

247
00:18:53,680 --> 00:18:56,599
So prop up the like weekend at
Bernie's. Prop up the corpse of

248
00:18:56,680 --> 00:19:00,960
Li I Coo guid. Yeah,
no one will know the difference. Everyone's

249
00:19:02,039 --> 00:19:03,960
dumbed down. Well, we got
a corpse for president. Did I just

250
00:19:04,000 --> 00:19:08,319
say that? Yeah? Well no, you didn't say that I misheard.

251
00:19:08,599 --> 00:19:12,599
Hey, I want to go back
to a prediction that you made a number

252
00:19:12,599 --> 00:19:18,759
of other metals analysts made, and
everybody cried bs and you know what that

253
00:19:19,000 --> 00:19:27,720
was that prices would start to really
go up when interest rates went higher and

254
00:19:27,839 --> 00:19:33,400
everything, No, that can't be
writing. You know, then the T

255
00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:38,279
bills will be much more competitive against
gold, and people won't give up big

256
00:19:38,440 --> 00:19:45,119
emills. And what happened We started
this rate hike ground and what happened to

257
00:19:45,200 --> 00:19:49,200
gold? How about that? This
is again, it's such a simple I

258
00:19:49,200 --> 00:19:52,599
don't know, I don't I feel
like I'm kind of snotty to say this,

259
00:19:52,720 --> 00:19:59,079
but it's such simplistic base level analysis
to say those kind of things,

260
00:19:59,240 --> 00:20:02,039
because it's it's like, it's this, it's all put that in the same

261
00:20:02,039 --> 00:20:04,039
group of people that said, well, goals do good. Look at inflations

262
00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:07,480
nine percent and it's not going up. So then you go, it's not

263
00:20:07,519 --> 00:20:11,599
even Look, it's not about the
base level inflation, it's not about nominal

264
00:20:11,640 --> 00:20:15,720
interest rates. What will drive gold
but Durham gold the seventies, eighties,

265
00:20:15,839 --> 00:20:23,039
nineties, everything is real interest rates, inflation adjusted interest rates. And this

266
00:20:23,119 --> 00:20:29,440
is why the period we're entering into
now of stagflation is going to be good

267
00:20:29,440 --> 00:20:33,359
for gold. To this, like
stagflation in the late seventies carry when you

268
00:20:33,400 --> 00:20:38,359
were just getting back from NOAM.
It puts good for goal because if you

269
00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:42,680
have negative real interest rates, which
means the rate of return on your fixed

270
00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:48,559
income is actually over time when you
adjusted for inflation negative, then gold,

271
00:20:48,599 --> 00:20:52,160
which doesn't pay a dividend. They
always tell me, looks free, damn

272
00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:56,720
good. And that's where we're heading
into again. FED is going to be

273
00:20:56,119 --> 00:21:02,839
cutting rates and the longer term rates
are going to be falling because people are

274
00:21:02,920 --> 00:21:04,559
looking at it, you know,
and looking for anything that they can do.

275
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And you know, we go from
three and a half down to three

276
00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:11,680
down to two and a half,
but inflation expectations or remaining elevated and getting

277
00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:15,960
worse. So with stagflation, that's
what happens. So you end up when

278
00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:22,359
you compute your real interest rates off
of current interest rates but also inflation expectations,

279
00:21:22,400 --> 00:21:26,039
we're gonna end up getting back to
negative one, negative two percent,

280
00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:30,160
and that just drives gold higher and
higher, not straight up none of this.

281
00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:33,359
Always laugh when people I see people
say, oh gold, once it

282
00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:34,599
gets through two thousand, it's going
straight to three thousand. I'm like,

283
00:21:34,599 --> 00:21:38,279
no, it's not that's not how
it works. It'll go to twenty three

284
00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:42,839
hundred, and then it'll pool around
for a while and consolidate and everybody'll get

285
00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:45,519
used to it, and then it'll
go to twenty five hundred and eventually go

286
00:21:45,559 --> 00:21:48,759
to three thousand. But it's not
going to go from two thousand and three

287
00:21:48,759 --> 00:21:51,480
thousand in a month. That's just
not how it works. And it's not

288
00:21:51,559 --> 00:21:55,160
just straight up inflation, or it's
not just nominal interest rates to drive the

289
00:21:55,200 --> 00:22:00,319
prices. So real interest rates exactly
exactly, and they're all negative real interest

290
00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:07,880
rates, right yeah, right,
Well again, you think of what drives

291
00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:12,759
the price in sadly still in twenty
twenty three is the futures price. So

292
00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:17,720
you think of, okay, well, who buys and sells the futures contracts?

293
00:22:17,799 --> 00:22:21,119
Mainly hedge funds against the banks.
A lot of those hedge funds are

294
00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:26,119
done by algorithm HIH frequency trading,
and those funds are programmed to follow real

295
00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:30,880
interest rates, so not off just
a month over months CPI, it's off

296
00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:36,599
of inflation expectations. So right now, the ten year inflation expectations are about

297
00:22:36,839 --> 00:22:40,680
a little over three percent the ten
year notes about three and a half percent,

298
00:22:41,039 --> 00:22:45,480
and so you can calculate that as
a positive real interest rate. What

299
00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:49,200
will happen is that tenuere inflation expectation
go to four, and the ten year

300
00:22:49,279 --> 00:22:52,400
note will go under three, and
now you're negative one again. And that's

301
00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:56,759
when gold just continues to rise and
rise. Not there yet, and golden

302
00:22:56,799 --> 00:23:00,799
won't break out. It's I've been
saying this year, it's not going to

303
00:23:00,839 --> 00:23:06,759
break out above twenty one hundred until
finally we know that the Fed is cutting.

304
00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:08,799
Because until everybody's on that boat,
you get things like today, we're

305
00:23:08,799 --> 00:23:14,240
all of a sudden, today everything's
going up, and then the manufacturing PMI

306
00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:18,039
comes in three tenths of one percent
higher than expectations, and all of a

307
00:23:18,079 --> 00:23:19,279
sudden, it's like, oh,
oh, oh my god, what are

308
00:23:19,319 --> 00:23:23,799
you doing. That's never gonna cut? Well, what is one little thing?

309
00:23:23,880 --> 00:23:27,640
But you know, all of a
sudden shows once we remove all doubt

310
00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:30,559
that the FIT is now cutting,
then gold will finally break out. But

311
00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:33,400
in between now and then, you
still get these days like today, we're

312
00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:37,279
all of a sudden, who maybe
we should short hiking, you know,

313
00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:42,599
putting in some rate eye cards for
June break, so game, the game

314
00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:48,279
continues. Yeah, so mood stops, but then they'll come up with another

315
00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:52,119
game. We know that how they
work, you know, we know how

316
00:23:52,119 --> 00:23:56,960
it works. So so interest rates
are going to come down, but you

317
00:23:56,000 --> 00:24:02,799
know, we could have the anomalous
situation where rates come down but the Fed's

318
00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:07,039
rates come down, but interest rates
really don't come down at all, you

319
00:24:07,079 --> 00:24:11,440
mean, like on the mid term
kind of think or mortgage rates stuff like

320
00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:15,759
that. Mortgage rates, Yeah,
a thirty year doesn't really a ten year

321
00:24:15,839 --> 00:24:19,799
doesn't come down that one. Yeah, I don't think absent you know,

322
00:24:21,319 --> 00:24:26,079
economic collapse, another pandemic, you
know, lockdown thing. I don't think

323
00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:29,079
we're going back to one percent on
the ten year note. No, And

324
00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:32,519
I don't think my current mortgage that
I refinanced a couple of years ago at

325
00:24:32,559 --> 00:24:34,799
two and three quarters percent, I
don't think I'm gonna I'm gonna let the

326
00:24:34,839 --> 00:24:37,200
bank hang out of that one as
long as I could stand in my house,

327
00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:41,039
right. I don't think we're going
back to that level a time soon.

328
00:24:41,119 --> 00:24:42,799
But again, what will happen is
what we've already seen. The ten

329
00:24:42,839 --> 00:24:48,119
year note peaked at four forty and
as recently as low as three thirty.

330
00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:52,079
Okay, it's probably gonna go under
three. And then inflation expectations because the

331
00:24:52,200 --> 00:24:55,720
Fed, I mean, the genie's
out of the bottle. They they're not

332
00:24:55,759 --> 00:24:59,880
going to get it back down to
one, right, expectations kind of kind

333
00:24:59,880 --> 00:25:03,000
of it's a self fulfilling cycle.
You get inflation and then it sticks around,

334
00:25:03,039 --> 00:25:04,519
You get more inflation, you start
expecting more inflation, and the thing

335
00:25:04,599 --> 00:25:08,480
kind of builds on itself exactly.
So the inflation expectations will go to four

336
00:25:08,720 --> 00:25:14,880
as inflation hovers around continues around four, and that's probably again and that's again,

337
00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:19,960
that's a long term sustainable thing,
a sustainable condition for bullish expectations for

338
00:25:21,039 --> 00:25:25,559
gold and silver, and that's that's
where headed not to the moon alice,

339
00:25:26,039 --> 00:25:30,119
but consistently higher to the point where
all the miners start making money again.

340
00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:33,359
That sort of thing. Yeah,
the minor So let's talk about that,

341
00:25:33,599 --> 00:25:37,960
okay, because if there's one sector
that's been the Rodney danger fields sector with

342
00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:44,640
the market with a few minor exceptions
sixteen in the height of the pandemic marching

343
00:25:45,079 --> 00:25:51,839
that was. But other than that, uh, this has been in the

344
00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:56,799
total crapper for you. Yeah,
for the better part of a decade since

345
00:25:57,000 --> 00:26:03,000
twelve years twelve years, right,
going keep preaching to the choir. They're

346
00:26:03,039 --> 00:26:07,440
carried. I know all about that
um M price suspect most people listening to

347
00:26:07,519 --> 00:26:11,599
us new I mean where there's there's
two problems with the mining shares. One

348
00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:15,680
nobody owns them, and so you
get these long periods of time where they

349
00:26:15,759 --> 00:26:22,400
just do nothing except burn money.
And then you get these huge surgeons,

350
00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:23,839
you know, where all of a
sudden, you know, your neighbor's calling

351
00:26:23,880 --> 00:26:26,599
up his stockbroker, Mary Lynch,
saying, hey, I need to this

352
00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:30,200
gold's taken off, and the stockbroker
the only one he's ever heard of,

353
00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:33,640
his newmont and so he sells the
guy a thousand shares a new moont B.

354
00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:37,359
Yeah. Yeah, And so you
get all of a sudden, these

355
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:41,799
these peaks of interest. Then the
other thing that's been working against them is

356
00:26:41,839 --> 00:26:45,440
that, you know, even as
recently as ten years ago, if you

357
00:26:45,440 --> 00:26:49,680
had like a part, you know, cut up your pie of your investment

358
00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:55,119
options, you had this little sliver
of outside the dollar, you know,

359
00:26:55,279 --> 00:26:59,319
non non paper kind of thing,
and it was gold, silver and maybe

360
00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:03,319
the mining share. Well now it's
bitcoin and crypto and all this other crap

361
00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:06,799
that siphons away buying interest from the
mining share, so that that doesn't help.

362
00:27:07,119 --> 00:27:11,319
And then finally the producers they had
they dig their product out of the

363
00:27:11,319 --> 00:27:14,799
ground for whatever they can sell it
for. But the cost of digging out

364
00:27:14,799 --> 00:27:18,519
of the ground is always going up
because the major cost is inflate or is

365
00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:25,680
energy, and so their margins are
constantly getting squeezed like this. So it's

366
00:27:25,759 --> 00:27:27,799
kind of a threefold problem. But
again the problem, the biggest problem is

367
00:27:29,200 --> 00:27:32,440
if you get tight just a minute, you think, oh, I'm just

368
00:27:32,759 --> 00:27:36,079
I'm tired of these miners. They've
done nothing for three years. You give

369
00:27:36,119 --> 00:27:38,799
one of those periods where they quadruple
in ninety days. Yeah to the moon

370
00:27:38,839 --> 00:27:44,079
Alice. Yeah. So that's and
so it makes it that makes it a

371
00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:48,000
very difficult sector, especially if you
try to do it yourself, and it's

372
00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:51,279
it's really hard to do. There's
one thing that makes it even worse.

373
00:27:51,319 --> 00:27:56,359
It's really four things. Is that
all of these companies that are producing,

374
00:27:56,079 --> 00:28:02,359
in order to finance their operations,
the banks require them to hedge, and

375
00:28:02,480 --> 00:28:06,960
they should hedge anyway if they sell
their production into the forward market. So

376
00:28:07,039 --> 00:28:11,079
when when the market takes off in
seventy percent of their production is hedge,

377
00:28:11,319 --> 00:28:15,880
right, virtually no profit in crew
right right. And then they're hedging while

378
00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:19,200
the price is going up, putting
a cap on the price. I mean,

379
00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:22,880
it's just maddening. Or I'll give
you one more care. I've never

380
00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:26,680
even thought about this before. But
you know, I started doing those things,

381
00:28:26,960 --> 00:28:30,119
uh, these weekly things with Eric's
Brott miibe or six years ago,

382
00:28:30,119 --> 00:28:33,119
and he had I kind of become
friends and I was talking. So I'm

383
00:28:33,160 --> 00:28:36,680
not like trying to be like mister
name dropper, but I was talking to

384
00:28:36,799 --> 00:28:41,559
Eric Brott last week and here's what
he's I'd never thought of this, he

385
00:28:41,599 --> 00:28:44,480
goes. He goes, think of
what a scam this is. If in

386
00:28:44,519 --> 00:28:48,839
Canada you can naked short sell things
to death, there's actually a thing cause,

387
00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:52,559
yeah, it's called the same Canadian
Mining and issue. I've ever heard

388
00:28:52,599 --> 00:28:55,920
of that. No, But okay, when you you just naked short sell

389
00:28:56,000 --> 00:29:00,599
things to death. And so if
you're an exploration company, costs a lot

390
00:29:00,599 --> 00:29:03,680
of money. You might need ten
million dollars a year just to keep going,

391
00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:07,519
so you've got to constantly keep coming
back and deluding your stock by doing

392
00:29:07,559 --> 00:29:10,559
these private placements. Well, Eric
goes, well, here's where it's such

393
00:29:10,599 --> 00:29:12,799
a scamp broker. Here's about the
private place, but they call it their

394
00:29:12,799 --> 00:29:17,799
hedge fund clients short. They short
the shit out of the stock, take

395
00:29:17,839 --> 00:29:22,279
the proceeds from shorting it by the
private placement, get the stock from the

396
00:29:22,279 --> 00:29:26,440
private placement, and repay the short. All right. So that is a

397
00:29:26,519 --> 00:29:33,079
great point you raised. And there
was an article in Zero Hedge. I'm

398
00:29:33,119 --> 00:29:37,200
sure you caught it a year or
two ago. Canadian brokers can naked short

399
00:29:37,279 --> 00:29:45,079
any stock for ten days, Yes, all right, because I believe the

400
00:29:45,079 --> 00:29:49,440
theory of naked shorting was we know
the shares are being shipped from New York

401
00:29:49,559 --> 00:29:56,000
or from Toronto or wherever, but
we need to lock in the price now

402
00:29:56,119 --> 00:30:00,799
because otherwise the risk gets too high
while we're waiting for this if against and

403
00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:04,720
we short them. Right, yeah, but that leads to, all right,

404
00:30:04,720 --> 00:30:08,400
we're going to close the position in
ten days, but on day nine

405
00:30:08,759 --> 00:30:12,880
or every day we're closing a ten
day position, we're opening a new ten

406
00:30:12,960 --> 00:30:18,359
day position. And each time they
do it, they got to increase the

407
00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:26,079
number of shorts. It's a cascading
thing. And then when some unforeseen development

408
00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:30,839
hits, you see parabolic moves in
these companies that may or may not be

409
00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:34,279
worth anything but their junior juniors,
you know, microcaps. But all of

410
00:30:34,319 --> 00:30:41,960
a sudden something happens and everybody runs
to cover. Yeah, and then you

411
00:30:41,079 --> 00:30:45,200
have multiple trading stops and they stop. Yeah, it happens periodically. I'm

412
00:30:45,200 --> 00:30:52,079
not going to I know somebody who
who was involved in what are these companies

413
00:30:52,079 --> 00:30:56,079
in? And the company did a
couple of things and as a result,

414
00:30:56,200 --> 00:31:00,359
everyone had to cover it once and
it went from three bucks to fifteen bucks

415
00:31:00,519 --> 00:31:06,519
yeah, two days, Yeah,
with probably a dozen trading stops. Right,

416
00:31:06,559 --> 00:31:10,400
it's why they do trading stops,
Craig right, ru. Yeah.

417
00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:14,960
But and then the sad party,
the retail guy that doesn't know how all

418
00:31:15,039 --> 00:31:17,759
this stuff works, thinks, well, now it's fifteen, it's going to

419
00:31:17,799 --> 00:31:19,640
forty five, and then it goes
right back down to you know, to

420
00:31:19,720 --> 00:31:23,799
four as they come back in and
shorted again. But I think what a

421
00:31:23,880 --> 00:31:27,079
scam that is. You can sit
there, I mean, this company is

422
00:31:27,079 --> 00:31:32,599
just trying to stay afloat, and
they end up having to raise cash because

423
00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:37,079
they're getting shorted to death anyway.
And then the company so they do offering

424
00:31:37,079 --> 00:31:41,839
a you know, ten million dollars
at one and it's you know, so

425
00:31:41,920 --> 00:31:45,440
like that gets announced hedge fund shorts
to crap out of it. At one

426
00:31:45,640 --> 00:31:48,880
goes all the way down to seventy
cents, and they take their shares of

427
00:31:48,960 --> 00:31:52,200
seventy cents and cover their short all
right, But going back to the Canadian

428
00:31:52,319 --> 00:31:56,559
thing, and it's what, it's
even worse than that, because there are

429
00:31:56,559 --> 00:32:05,079
certain really well healed investors that,
while they don't own brokerage companies Canadian brokers,

430
00:32:05,119 --> 00:32:08,319
they effectively control them, bring their
order flow and through their volume.

431
00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:13,559
So individuals can't do this. They
have to settle within two days, and

432
00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:19,039
the new rule got passed by the
Canadian regulator that they have to know they

433
00:32:19,039 --> 00:32:22,720
have the shares before they can short
them. Right reasonably believe that they'll be

434
00:32:22,720 --> 00:32:25,759
able to obtain the shore the shares
in the next two days, But it

435
00:32:25,799 --> 00:32:32,720
doesn't apply to brokers. So effectively, these well healed investors avoid the entire

436
00:32:34,200 --> 00:32:37,839
regulatory scheme. And the other thing, Craig, is that, from my

437
00:32:37,960 --> 00:32:43,480
knowledge and correct me if I'm wrong, brokers don't have to report their short

438
00:32:43,519 --> 00:32:47,839
positions in Canada. I don't think
that to be true. If anybody knows

439
00:32:49,279 --> 00:32:53,279
otherwise, please let us know.
I don't want to be disseminating false information.

440
00:32:53,680 --> 00:32:58,880
But from other people I've heard they
don't have to disclose their short positions.

441
00:32:59,200 --> 00:33:05,839
It doesn't get get reported on the
short interest reports because their market makers

442
00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:08,440
and they buy and sell for their
own account, you know, and they

443
00:33:08,480 --> 00:33:14,519
did they do right, right,
right right. If I'm wrong, though,

444
00:33:14,559 --> 00:33:16,160
I'll stand correct, and I'd love
to hear from any of you out

445
00:33:16,200 --> 00:33:21,319
there. Yeah. So that's just
some of the obstacles. But we're getting

446
00:33:21,319 --> 00:33:25,880
to a point where I think any
idiot with ten thousand dollars can make a

447
00:33:25,880 --> 00:33:30,519
boatload of money in mining shares.
Were not there yet, but that could

448
00:33:30,599 --> 00:33:34,519
happen any day. It's again one
of those massive runs in like like in

449
00:33:34,599 --> 00:33:37,480
twenty sixteen, yeah, which was
another period where the FED was playing the

450
00:33:37,559 --> 00:33:40,680
rhetorical games about hiking rates and all
that crap, and all of a sudden,

451
00:33:40,720 --> 00:33:45,960
economy slowed down and like the Huie
Index went from one hundred to almost

452
00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:49,720
three hundred and eight months. Yeah, so it's there. It happens.

453
00:33:50,440 --> 00:33:55,240
Yeah, and you know, the
smart companies that you and I hopefully invest

454
00:33:55,319 --> 00:34:00,640
in and certainly cover all of them
use that time in sixteen and then also

455
00:34:00,720 --> 00:34:07,480
in twenty the raise capital. That's
the time their stock became liquid. Right

456
00:34:07,480 --> 00:34:12,119
now these stocks are a liquid nobody
wants them, but all that's about to

457
00:34:12,239 --> 00:34:15,800
change. Heke Craig tell us how
do we become members there at a TF

458
00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:21,000
Metals Report dot com And what's in
it for us? Well, first I

459
00:34:21,039 --> 00:34:24,679
want to send everybody my new website, Craig and carries short the shit out

460
00:34:24,679 --> 00:34:31,119
of Canadian Miners fund ss CM.
I think as the U r L as

461
00:34:31,159 --> 00:34:37,119
we speak. Yeah, there you
go, And then we're gonna be in

462
00:34:37,159 --> 00:34:43,880
trading places, you know where I'm
on the beach bailing good Gary. I

463
00:34:43,960 --> 00:34:47,199
love it. Yeah, look I
joke, but I mean if you can't

464
00:34:47,320 --> 00:34:52,639
laugh at the corrupt, how corrupt
everything is, then you're just gonna absolutely

465
00:34:52,719 --> 00:34:57,039
drive yourself bananas, you know.
And like today, at one point,

466
00:34:57,559 --> 00:35:05,719
silver was up ninety five cents and
then because the manufacturing PMI for this month

467
00:35:05,760 --> 00:35:08,920
came in three ticks higher than it
was exposed to tip Be, the dollar

468
00:35:09,039 --> 00:35:15,119
went up forty cents and silver went
back down four percent. Which silver it

469
00:35:15,159 --> 00:35:19,039
was about said hit Twiday's things,
right, So if you're going to keep

470
00:35:19,079 --> 00:35:22,559
your sanity, if anything might,
maybe my site will help you do that.

471
00:35:22,280 --> 00:35:27,800
Yeah, TF metals report. I
I cross content every day and I

472
00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:30,559
hopefully people think it's that. We'll
try to help you keep pure. Thank

473
00:35:30,599 --> 00:35:36,920
you, sanity. There's no guarantee, but writing no guarantee. There's links

474
00:35:36,920 --> 00:35:40,360
of links to the new site and
to craig site in the show notes on

475
00:35:40,400 --> 00:35:45,360
Financial Survival Network dot com. And
just sign up for your free newsletter while

476
00:35:45,360 --> 00:35:51,079
you're there. And hey, got
a question for Craiger myself, shoot us

477
00:35:51,079 --> 00:35:55,079
an email kl at Kerry LUTs dot
com. We've been talking about this stuff

478
00:35:55,440 --> 00:36:00,840
for the better part of ten years, actually eleven, Craig, and exactly

479
00:36:00,840 --> 00:36:06,920
what we said is coming to pass. Yeah, yeah, that speaks volumes.

480
00:36:07,280 --> 00:36:12,440
Be aware of bitcoin again because the
BTC conference is coming up in Miami

481
00:36:12,960 --> 00:36:17,960
eighteen to the twentieth of May.
And Mark my words, could very well

482
00:36:19,000 --> 00:36:22,280
be a peak. I can't tell
you for sure, but it certainly worked

483
00:36:22,320 --> 00:36:24,440
that way in the past. All
right, Craig, Thanks, we'll talk

484
00:36:24,480 --> 00:36:27,880
to you again. Sam matt Way, it's good to see you, Carried.

485
00:36:28,360 --> 00:36:34,519
Thanks for listening to carry Lets's Financial
Survival Network your solution to today's trying

486
00:36:34,599 --> 00:36:38,519
times. For the latest, go
to Financial Survival Network dot com. Financial

487
00:36:38,639 --> 00:36:42,800
survival Network now more than ever
