Hello, and welcome to the Dynasty Dude Podcast. I am your host,
Corey Evans. Thank you for listening to this week's show. It is titled
Rookie Wall or a Bust. I have five rookies to discuss with a Dynasty
long term perspective in mine. I will preface I had come up with a
creative episode title, but I don't think any rookie in the NFL today is
a bust, not even Quentin Johnston with his drop issues we've seen over the
past few weeks. It's far too early to write off someone that has the
pedigree or draft capital that we were intrigued by only a short few months ago.
We are now eleven weeks into the twenty twenty three campaign, which is
a solid but not large enough setle size of data to truly determine the career
arc of any rookie, prospect or now player in the NFL, So keep
that in mind. Even though some could be labeled a bust, I'm not
quite there yet. Before I get to the actual bread and butter of this
week's content, don't forget if you want access to a bonus show per week
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dot com search Corey Evans the Dynasty Dude. Let's get right to it.
Rookie wall or a bust up? First is Bryce Young, who I think
many will label in that bust category, and I caution you to do so.
A lot of factors that are working against him. He's only twenty two
first overall pick out of Alabama. Size was the one caveat to his upside
as a pro at five ten two oh four some website tad and listened at
one to ninety four post NFL draft. For the most part, though,
it sounds like he is right around a two hundred pound range, give or
take a fee lbs in either direction. So far, Bryce completing sixty two
point one percent of his passes for five point three yards per attempt, both
of which are well blow his college norms. The accuracy is puzzling, but
the yards per attempt downfield are downright Dreadfield's one of the worst numbers I've seen
out of a starting quarterback in quite some time. He missed Week three with
an injury, otherwise has been available for Carolina with inconsistent performances bryce one or
fewer passing touchdowns and eight contests. He's had three passing touchdowns only once.
That was in Week five at Detroit, representing one of his best showings of
the season. Young is making some outright bad decisions. If you watch a
film or any Carolina game, you know what I mean. The footwork in
the pocket at times appears stuggish as he drops back to pass go through progressions.
Conversely, factors as I alluded to, such as timid play calling with
either Frank Reich or Thomas Brown, below average supporting cast of weapons. Adam
Thielen is a volume hawk, sure, but wrong side of thirty is not
what he used to be in his elite prime as in Minnesota. If he's
your facto number one, that's a problem, not to mention mediocre to subpar
offensive line support, and we saw it on full display a meek eleven against
Dallas, where Young was sacked left and right. That's all working against Bryce
succeeding as a rookie to this point. Carolina is not. And I want
to stress this's the same fantasy friendly environment like Houston is CJ. Stroud,
or even Indianapolis was for Anthony Richardson before injury. Young has a lot less
to work with in order to produce. If you were to insert Young in
those schemes with Houston or Indianapolis, I promise you would look a lot better
than what we've seen in Carolina. That is part of the value assessment conversation
for any rookie quarterback. And I've had Bryce Young as QB one up until
my latest quarterback ranking show over on Patreon, where that is now CJ.
Stroud among those three, I still like Young more than Richardson long term because
I don't know if ar can change his mindset of being a running, mobile
quarterback. That's not going to work, as we saw in twenty twenty three
before he was injured out for the year, because you take enough hits,
especially to a throwing shoulder, you're not gonna be able to last in the
NFL. Let's go back to Bryce Young. Passing volume has not been an
issue. The Panthers are routinely facing negative gamescript and he has hit or eclipsed
thirty one PAS attempt at eight different games. Therefore, process over results is
if you're trotting Young in your lineup out there, you're hoping for volume,
and he's your quarterback two in a super flex league. Unfortunately, the results
have not been in line with the rational thinking of said pass volume equating to
production. From a fantasy point of view, his season high in yards passing
checks in at two forty seven, season low checks in at one to twenty
three. That accounts for an unpredictable floor and near non existent ceiling, particularly
in one quarterback league. Now, Brece Young sure off to a bat star
as a pro, but as I mentioned earlier on this show, it's far
too soon to label hammer anyone a bust, especially a former Heisman Trophy winner
coming out of Nick Saban's Alabama regime, which is usually transferable to the NFL.
We've seen that at sowy positions, both offensively and defensively. I remain
confident about his ability to process information downfield, offer plus accuracy, and own
or display that innate playmaking ability. It could take time, sophomore leap,
third year until Bryce Young is what we thought he was going to be,
or at least three quarters of that ceiling. That being said, he is
very difficult to trust rest of season in a one quarterback super flex two quarterback
format no matter what it is. He's more of a bet on future upside
as the Panthers add more talent to its offensive depth chart. Like I said,
You're not going to win football games with Adam Fielder's wide receiver one or
Terres Marshall. This is Channault, DJ Shark, Tommy Tremble, Hayden Hurst,
Miles Sanders, Truba Hubbard. You get the picture. Bryce Young does
not have a lot of top tier supporting cast members like TJ. Stroud does
with Tank Dell or Nico Collins, Dalton Schultz, Devin Singleteer. You get
the picture. That's the point I want to get. Context is everything,
and at this point, Bryce Young is in a bad fantasy environment. Does
I mean he's a bust? He's hit a rookie wall, that's for sure.
Zay Flowers, He's twenty three, twenty second overall pick out of Boston
College. Some undoubtedly question his side at five nine two out of school.
To this point, Zay's smaller stature has not proven to be an issue.
Instead, it's been a lack of consistency sending from viowel usage and fewer big
plays than were known or accustomed to being associated with Flowers and a set of
tools on the football field, at least at the collegiate level. And there's
Week twelve at Baltimore, a fifty three to five eighty eight one receiving log
on seventy two targets, seven rushes nineteen yards. The Deebo Samuel Rowl was
a bit overstated. We haven't seeing that sort of Versaly usage yet. If
Flowers had a few more receiving touchdowns on his rookie resume this year, the
narrative surrounding his outlook would be far more optimistic. That is, for sure,
one touchdown on fifth three catches and seventy two targets means he's been a
bit unlucky with find the end zone. With various injuries to a shot bateman
Odell Beckham, throughout most of this year, Zay has essentially operated as Baltimore's
wide receiver one as results volume has been up for distribution behind Mark Andrews private
injury running backs Gus Edwards, Keeta Mitchell, Justice Hill. Early on in
the campaign was JK. Dobbins, which means we should not be surprised with
this per game target totals so far being ten, five, ten, four,
eleven, eight, six, seven, one, six and four.
Those numbers should climb even more with Mark Andrews presumably out for the rest of
the season or at least until the postseason after the fibula and ankle injuries sustained
in Week eleven, devastating blow to the Ravens offense and fantasy alike. Save
Flowers has yet to clear seventy eight yards receiving in a single game to date.
That came in Week one. Fortunately, he's been serviceable enough from a
county sets perspective, with at least four catches in eight separate games, but
seventy eight yards being the top or peak and his value has been disappointing to
say the least. Nonetheless, what Say is able to do with the ball
in his hands after the catchpoint with speed and agility is special. Remain patient
with him as a wide receiver three, with long term wide receiver two upside
even a wide receiver one season in fantasy cannot be ruled out if he develops
into the Ravens top pass catcher over time. Given the body frame once again
five nine two, I'm not sold that the Ravens won't add an impact free
agent or select another wide out first round, second round and a loaded twenty
one for a crop next year, making Zay more of a number two.
Thanks true number one. But if he is, and him and Lamar on
the same page, and they iron this offense out being led by Todd Monkin,
then the sky is truly to limit. He is not as talented as
a Deebo Samuels for comparisons out of bust in college four ze, but they're
receiving and at the constability upside surely exists. He is not a bust.
However, no denying that at times Zave Flowers has hit the perceived rookie wall.
How about Rochean Johnson, not like chatters surrounding him in don Ce Circles
lately twenty two years old, fourth rounder out of Texas similar to his time
in college behind b John Robinson, Rochean playing second fiddle, even third fiddle
to both Cleveland Herbert and Deontay Foreman in twenty twenty three as a rookie.
To this point for the year, his output stands at forty four rushes for
about ninety seven one touchdown, four and a half yards per totes, and
then nineteen grabs ninety one yards on twenty three targets, which are below expectations.
Since many assumed that Rochan could push for everyone duties right out of camp
preseason week one in Chicago, that has not been the case. He has
ideal size six feet two twenty five coupled with fluid rushing ability, pass projecting
chops that should keep on the field eventually and reliable hands. Underrated at that
as a receiver, it's only a matter of time until Johnson is featured or
earns a bit more work for the Bears. Where at that time comes this
season in the future, that's up for debates. Since Foreman has been performing
at a high level in Herbert's absence. Herbert returned this past weekend, have
plenty of volume. He's the assume starter when active and healthy. It does
not help matters either that Chicago is one of the worst teams in all football
for game flow or efficiency purposes. Until we see an increase in snaps or
total touches. Rochans should be on fantasy benches outside of the deepest of leagues.
I wouldn't be surprised on the flip side if the Bears decide to ramp
up Roashwan's workload a bit after the week thirteen by as most coaches teams tend
to do with rookies brought along slowly out of the bye week. Suddenly here's
your opportunity to prove your worth. The issue with the running back of Roshan's
caliber is he's a fourth round pick, so it doesn't have that Day one
or early Day two draft capital that would virtually guarantee him a roll right out
of the gate. He's on the RB four RB five radar if not offering
some flex appeal or upside at some stage of the season. There's hope that
a sophomore leap is in the cards for next year, since Khleil Herbert is
a free agent in twenty twenty five. But Deontay Foreman hits you of market
in twenty twenty four, and I'm surprised the Bears and not recuperate some draft
capital and cash out on Foreman at the NFL's deadline, because there's no need
for him on a team that's essentially tanking for a top five pick in twenty
twenty four. Right now, I would be going to offer a twenty twenty
four third Rookey draft pick. From a don's perspective for ro Sean hoping on
future dividends, you're not baking out into twenty twenty three. But the talent
does remind me of a more agile AJ Dillon in terms of the size,
speed, profile, leticism, things of that nature. Time for a quick
break. I'll be back with two more rookie wall or bust players on this
week's show before I do that quicker minder. If you want to get that
one on one time with me over at Google meet Roster Call, offer those
in two time sessions. First thirty dollars for thirty minutes, second fifty dollars
for one hour. Feedback from those are always positive. It's always cool to
meet you My listeners through them as well. Whether we do audio or video
both totally up to you when we join the call. If interested, hit
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over on Facebook. Once again, this for a thirty minute, one hour
aster call which I hold on Google meet time for that quick break. Be
right back, rookie Waller bust might go. Mayer twenty two years old.
Check around selection out Notre Dame who pre drafts you as arguably the most complete
tight end prospect in the twenty twenty class, despite Delta kin kid superior route
running, receiving traits, even Sam laport in that mix right now, in
terms of pure value, we'd rank those in your consensus Kincaid, Laporta or
flip flop those two. But the third option would be Michael Mayer. If
you question ten people, I'm sure nine out of ten would say so.
Don't think that's a mistake. But I also think that Mayor has the same
skill set or ceiling asking Kaid and LAPORTA long term. Yes, he was
quiet from Hes one to five with Amy r three catches to show for until
his Week six outburst or mini breakout five catches seventy five yards on six targets
versus New England. Since then, Michael Mayer scored his first touchdown in Week
ten, but otherwise it has been kept at bay In terms of emerging and
what's becoming a vanilla offense led by Adan O'Connell for the Las Vegas Raiders,
what I find most discouraging is that Mayor hasn't caught more than five passes in
a single game. Despite the Raiders lack of playmakers outside of Devonte Adams,
Josh Shakeups or even Jacobe Myers. I am still all in on Mayor becoming
a fixture at tight end for the Las Vegas Raiders. As a franchise,
they building block for the team. As we all know, tight end production
or development isn't linear, so what Kinkaid does doesn't mean that Laporta will do
or even Mayor. It takes time to acclimate to the pro level, so
patients is required. Even if the lack of involvement is frustrating despite clear glimpses
of top tier skills being out displayed when targeted, the issue at hand is
that Mayor's snap rate more to come on that soon is not aligning with his
on field production or box scores. As a result, more of a tight
end two for twenty twenty three could stream based on matchup rest of the way.
Undoubtedly, though, could become a popular breakout candidate as a sophomore,
assuming the Raiders address quarterback over the offseason via fregency or the draft. So
if you don't want to spend a premium on King cad To Laporta or a
Travis Kelsey, Mark Andrews, Hockinson, Pitts Goddard, anyone in that upper
tier range, then pivot to Mayor. Pay what was usually a second round
pick in any format and target him now for a late second or maybe two
thirds gets it done. There are people panicking who have roster Michael Mayer and
spent a late first, early midsecond on him. Trust me, it happens
every year at oppositions, and I am sure that people are on the wrong
side of that equation thinking that Mayor is a bust. He's simply not.
Snap rights indicates becoming a full time player for the Raiders offense. Since we
eight of ninety one percent, eighty eight percent, eighty eight percent and eighty
percent more often talent win's out and trusting the process in terms of draft capital,
college production or pedigree means a lot. And I'm only to bank that
mayor will pan out and so may shape or form. The usage is simply
not on par with Kinkaid or the Porter for comparison's sake, going apples to
apples for rookie prospects in twenty twenty three. Last, but not least,
how about Kendre Miller. He's only twenty one third rounder out of TCU youth
immediately stands out jumps off the page when discussing Miller as he could be in
line for opportunities and as soon as twenty twenty four or not far after.
As Alvial Kamara and Jamal Williams age on with their contracts, they're both UFAs
and twenty twenty six. That means unrestrict the free agents, but both have
outs or possible outs in their contracts. Beforehand, Expecting ken Dre to contribute
much as a rookie was far fetched. Outside of when Kamara was suspended.
Miller did not debut himself because of injuries until week three, and as filled
they changed a pace roll with stat lines of twenty eight carries for eighty three
yards only three yards per carry, and nine catches for one hundred and eleven
yards on ten targets prior to start of this upcoming Week twelve with a total
three miss contest due to injury and now out of the Week eleven by There's
a chance that Miller's healed up could see additional reps as regular season unfolds.
That versatility and explosiveness as a rusher that we saw a TCU and really made
him a prominent prospect have not disappeared. It's a matter of being available on
the field, and I think the way in for Miller from our perspective,
to carve out works value is usurping Jamal Williams. Williams has been ineffective in
twenty twenty three with two point nine yards for clip on forty five carries,
compared to his dominant twenty twenty two season with the Lions, where he went
off for a two sixty two ten sixty six seventeen rushing effort that jow Williams
seems to have come and gone, or at least a situation of how he
was utilizing Detroit compared New Orleans is night and day different. Once again,
though Hendre Miller was and still is a bet on future dividends as Kamara is
eventually going to be scaled back or phased out like most A twenty eight running
backs. The key is to invest in Miller before that time comes. You
could benefit from his obvious potential a feature running back in the NFL. I'm
not promising he's going to main healthy because even at TCU he missed a lot
of pre draft events due to his meniscus or knee injury. So dating back
to the college levels, even in those concerns, and that's my main issue
with Miller is the lack of their ability, which keeps his doney stock in
my opinion. In more, in the second round rookie draft pick range's opposed
to a first rounder, and given how loaded the twenty twenty four crop is,
we're talking one quarterback. I'd say Kendry Miller mid second, late second
in a best case scenario in terms of requiring him, but in super flex,
I would not be shocked if you send out a twenty four to third
for Miller. Someone took that pick because they think Miller's quote unquote a bust
because of his discourage. You start as a rookie, it takes time.
And I want to stress this, emphasize it, and make it crystal clear
that not all prospect development is linear. There are so many different ways that
a quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tenant can emerge. So yes,
all five names I discussed have all hit the rookie walls at some point
in twenty twenty three. Do I think they're bust? No? Are there
some trending in a bus direction. Could be, but it's far too small
of a sample size. Or use six thermometer to freak out, panic and
sell for pennies and a dollar. That's not where we're at as a sophomore.
If the struggs continue, then there's a conversation to be had. Hope
you all enjoyed this week's episode, a quick recap of the five rookie wall
or a bust player I described, Bryce Young, Zay Flowers, Roshawn Johnson,
Michael Mayer, and KeAndre Miller. If you enjoyed this week show and
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to you all in week twelve as we all push here to make the fantasy
postseason or if you're out of contention, making those tweaks improvements succeed as soon
as next season. See yea almost as muh almost