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I always warn about trying to too
closely correlate dollar and gold movement. You

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know a lot of traders still think
there's a one hundred and eighty degree in

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verse correlation that needs to just move
in tandem or inverse tandem. You're listening

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00:00:19,839 --> 00:00:25,239
to Carrie Letts's Financial Survival Network where
you get valuable information. You just can't

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find anywhere else to thrive in today's
trying times. You need the Financial Survival

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Network now more than ever. Go
to Financial Survival Network dot com and get

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your free newsletter and gift. Financial
Survival Network now more than ever. And

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welcome. You are listening to the
Financial Survival Network. I'm your host,

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Carrie Lutts. Well, markets have
definitely been volatile lately, but they've been

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heading higher, especially the stock market. It's the dollar, etc. Where

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are they heading? Where is gold
going? Our good friend Eric Haddock is

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with us now, and Eric,
it's great to have you back on.

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You find Eric at inside i nsidetrack
dot com. And if you got a

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question for Eric, shoot me an
email k l at kerrylets dot com.

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So, when last we spoke,
Eric, you were talking about an intermediate

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high for gold and a lot has
passed since then. First, let's start

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out talking about the dollar. Well, the dollar, I think has been

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in a broad congestion range down near
its lows, and I'm talking on a

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three to six month basis. We
saw the dollar reach some major upside price

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targets last year. In fact,
broadening out that perspective or that outlook for

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a minute, the dollar since two
thousand and eight has been in a slow,

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steady up trend. It's that it's
lowest low basis. The Dollar Index

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in two thousand and eight saw two
waves up during that time, and then

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as we came into twenty eighteen twenty
nineteen, it was ready for a final

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fifth wave rally, which took hold. And the upside price targets that I

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had published were right around one ten
to one thirteen on the Dollar Index.

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We hit that last year. So
from a price perspective, we are probably

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in the process of setting a major
top in the Dollar index after a fourteen

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year up trend. I think that
that's going to have ramifications on a lot

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of other markets down the road a
little bit. But right now, dollar

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came into this year, set an
initial bottom and has been trying to rebound

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from that. But one of the
things I've kept telling my readers is that

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in order to confirm anything more than
just a couple month bottom, the dollar

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needs to give a weekly close above
its early January peak. That has implications

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on an intra year trend indicator that
I use, and really it should close

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above its early March peak as well, which was set near the same level,

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so right around one oh five.
Until then, it is still languishing.

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It still has the threat of heading
back towards its lows on a short

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term basis. A week and a
half ago, I explained why a lot

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of indicators were starting to group around
one oh one fifty one O one sixty

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in the September Dollar index futures.
That's where I'm looking for it to drop

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to in the short term, and
following that that that's going to really have

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a decisive impact on what the dollar
does for the next three to six months.

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All right, So could be so
you think that's an intermediate low or

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is that a whole shift in the
trend. I think that the dollar has

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has set a three to six month
bottom, that that low could even hold

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longer than that, and that we're
in a treeting range it's probably going to

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stretch out for some time. Again, having fulfilled five to ten year upside

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price targets, there's a very good
chance that a major peak is intact in

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the dollar index. That doesn't remove
or preclude a retest of those highs.

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There's other indicators that I use to
signal whether or not that's that's a possibility,

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but any additional upside potential appears very
limited based on those price objectives.

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And from a timing perspective, I've
been talking about twenty twenty three as being

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a major turning point for the dollar, so I think we're in the very

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early stages of that transition, and
in a lot of trend reversals, you'll

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see what we have seen in the
dollar the last year, and that as

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you get an initial somewhat sharp sell
off, and a lot of that is

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a reaction to the to the blowoff
rally that was seen leading into a top.

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But then a market will trace out
a very lengthy, volatile trading range

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kind of a bee wave or a
week two after the initial sell off.

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That often consumes more time than even
most expect because it's going through this battle

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between the bulls and the bears.
And I think that's where we're at.

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So I think it's going to be
a trading range for some time, perhaps

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throughout the remainder of twenty twenty three. But as that's happening, you get

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some of your broader indicators that are
more lagging indicators. They're ruling over and

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starting to head down, and it's
that sequence that really sets a market up

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for a bigger decline, which is
what I'd look for Alden's next year.

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That a couple of months ago in
my monthly newsletter Inside Track, I was

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even discussing when I expect multi year
cycle lows in the dollar looking forward,

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But in between now and then,
I think you're going to see training range,

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have those indicators slowly roll over,
and then the dollar will be ready

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for a more significant sell off out
in twenty twenty four or twenty twenty five.

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All right, So then if we're
talking about the dollar, obviously that's

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intimately tied in with interest rates,
right glad of that's gonna dictate where the

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dollar goes. What are you seeing
there? I still am very impressed by

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the consistency and the just the accuracy
of this four year cycle that you've seen

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in bonds and in interest rates.
And in July twenty twenty I explained why

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I thought we'd see a major multi
year peak in bonds low in interest rates,

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and that was four years from the
July twenty sixteen peak, which was

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four years from the July twenty twelve
peak, and this four year cycle and

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a complete cycle progression by my definition, has unfolded since the nineteen nineties.

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And so after seeing that major peak
in bonds in July twenty twenty, which

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again is a corresponding low in interest
rates, there were two things that I

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looked for looking forward from that.
One was the more distant vantage point or

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target point, and that was for
the next phase of that four year cycle

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to time a subsequent lower high in
bonds out around the third quarter of twenty

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twenty four, so four years from
that twenty twenty peak. In between those

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two peaks declining peaks. Like I
said, you expect normally a market to

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decline for roughly two thirds of that
cycle, so two thirds of a four

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year cycle. And there's multiple reasons
for that, but a very simple kind

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of mathematical proportional reason has to do
with how markets retrace, and that if

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you see a decline for two thirds
of a cycle. It allows enough time

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for a rebound for the final third
that cycle, which from a timing perspective

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is a fifty percent rebound and time. So in the case of bonds,

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I was looking for bonds to sell
off for roughly thirty two months, which

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is two thirds of a forty eight
month or for year cycle, and then

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rebound for about sixteen months. There's
a lot of other things. That's that's

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the real general broad stroke expectation.
Then I look at many other timing indicators

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to show where that might be off, it might be wrong, or to

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validate it, reinforce it and corroborate
it, and give me more cred ability

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or more confidence in the credibility of
that that scenario. Bonds did adhere to

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that, and they had to sell
off for the thirty two months. That

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time frame came in at March of
this year. And I think that the

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March lows will continue to hold in
bonds, and that the next important high,

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a subsequent low and interest rates will
come into play out in third quarter

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of twenty twenty four. Similar to
what we just talking about the dollar.

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That doesn't mean that you suddenly get
a big rally in bonds or a big

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drop in interest rates. If anything, we should see a basing process through

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most of this year and then into
first quarter, second quarter of next year,

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the chance for rates to drop a
bit or at least the perception of

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rates, because that's what really drives
bonds, and see bonds rebound into that

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July or all Gust twenty twenty four. Then looking out, you've got the

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potential for more interrastrate hikes, but
that's that's going out a year or two

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even farther. Right now, I
think that that bonds are an abasing period,

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interest rates are peaking. You know, we're right on the threshold of

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the Fed announcements. The general consensus
is that they will pause rate hikes today,

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but that um that they could very
well make sure there's a few hawkish

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comments in there after the release,
letting everyone know that there still is the

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chance for a future rate hike,
perhaps in late July at the next meeting.

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But the markets respond differently to that
than just topping and bottoming in lock

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step with those interest rates removes.
There's a lot more going on and that

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fits with this basing period. Even
if there is another rate hike out in

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late July. It's that's what you
see during this phase of a trend.

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And I think as we get later
into this year, you're going to see

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you're going to continue to see inflationary
numbers tail off a bit. You may

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see some economic numbers start to show
a little bit of weakness, even things

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like real estate and housing. Uh, you may start to see that start

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to come down a bit, all
contributing to to the FED being able to

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stop the rate height cycle and start
to moderate interest rates. Okay, so

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down the road, is this pre
elections cycling type things that this word that's

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certainly all that also fits into that
that and you know, if interests are

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a little more favorable in second quarter, third quarter of next year, um,

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that is any certainly a series or
a sequence that goes along with that

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four year cycle in interest rates.
So that wouldn't be surprising to see that

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have an influence in there either,
even though we know, you know,

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the fit is completely a political and
you know objeck and unbiased. Yeah,

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yes, so all right, so
question of gold silver, we saw all

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time nominal high in gold. We
still haven't seen much in silver. It's

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still trading more than fifty percent below
its peak. What's up with that?

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I always warn about trying to too
closely correlate dollar and golden movement. You

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know, a lot of traders still
think there's a one hundred and eighty degree

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inverse correlation that needs to just move
in tandem or inverse tandem. But a

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lot of times you will see I
mean, you go back a year ago

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and you see the dollar in gold
moving in in sync when you've got things

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like the Ukraine invasion and other geopolitical
factors. With that said, I do

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think that my outlook for the dollar, even the outlook for interest rates,

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is consistent with my outlook for gold
over the coming years and in the short

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term. Coming into this year,
there were a couple of key time brands

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and key cycles that I was looking
for in gold. One, as you

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mentioned from our last conversation, was
I expected an immediate peak in silver in

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late January early January and golden early
February. Then after they saw some some

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solid selloffs into late March early April, my outlook was for excuse me,

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into the late late feb early March. I think it was My outlook was

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for the next intermediate peak that would
probably hold for a few months to take

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place. In the very early part
of May, there was a lot of

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intermediless cycles coming into play just in
the first few days of May, and

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gold and silver rallied right into that
timeframe peaked in perfect lockstep with those cycles.

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And while peaking though that high reinforced
my outlook going out farther into this

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year. And one of the important
things more significant cycles I anticipate in gold

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and silver is in late October early
November when I think we'll see a pretty

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significant peak in gold and silver,
and often you get the majority of an

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upmove coming in the weeks prior to
that. That doesn't mean that I expect

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an uptrend from right now until a
early new veter. Very often the uptrend

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only consumes a few weeks out of
that entire time frame, And in fact,

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I actually think there is some on
an intermediate basis, some lower loans

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to be had before gold and silver
to finish their correction from the early May

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peak, and there's a lot of
timing indicators that are starting to hone that

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outlook and pinpoint when when the next
three to six months low the next best

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buying opportunity in gold and silver is
lining up, and that's the time when

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I would expect the market to start
focusing on that late twenty twenty three time

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frame, in late October early November
start a multi month up trend. But

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as I said, a lot of
times you get the biggest moves leading into

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those peaks, and so I'll also
be watching how al the geopolitical landscape is

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shaping up in the late third quarter
early fourth quarter of this year, and

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a lot of other factors to corroborate
that outlook. All right, so overall

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we're looking higher, though I think
we will definitely exceed the early May highs

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by early November. To what extent
that's going to be more determined by how

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deep the current correction goes. I've
got some expectations for that, and if

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they hold full true, then then
yes, I would expect higher highs.

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But again that's not a that's not
a straight up thing, and it could

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be a drawn out sideways market with
a spike high there. That's a lot

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of that is a kind of a
dynamic fluid situation where the action over the

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next few weeks is going to help
clarify or to expect over the next few

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months and so forth. But that's
they're the key turning point time frames that

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I'm looking at, and a couple
of indicators that could be clear by late

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June are going to really help me
home that outlook for the third and fourth

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quarter of this year. Okay,
now, let's switch gears. Look at

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oil right now. It's trading right
around seven books. It looks like it's

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week could go lower. Of what
are you seeing there? Well, I

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think has the potential for a third
quarter rally. I agree with you,

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it certainly is weak right now.
But the one thing I was watching was

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the way in which the March and
May lows were set in crude at least

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gave the potential for a three to
six month bottom to take hold. But

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there's a weekly trend indicator that I
use that has to turn up if there's

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going to be any chance of that
being a three to six month bottom,

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and and that would at the very
least, I would need to see current

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get back above seventy five in the
short term and get a weekly close above

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that in the in the front contract
month. But there's more than that that

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needs to happen in order to confirm
the March and May lows as a three

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to six month bottom. There are
some intriguing cycles coming into play out in

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the third quarter late the corner that
anticipate a decisive peak in crude and the

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energy complex. So obviously you'd need
to see a rally into that time frame

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for it to be able to be
a cycle peak cycle high, and that

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would certainly dovetail with the recent lows
holding, but it doesn't by itself.

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That doesn't eliminate the possibility of additional
lows before it turns back up. So

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right now, it too is in
a drawn out congestion phase. But I

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do think that if we can see
a little more constructive action over the next

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couple of weeks and and crude to
turn a couple of one to two weeks

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two to four week indicators positive,
then I would start to get a little

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more confidence in those recent lows holding
for some time and and the onset of

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a new one to two months,
two to three month rally in the energy

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complex. All right, sounds reasonable. What else should we be looking at?

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Any other markets that you're following that
would make sense for us to keep

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a closer eye on. That's that's
a lot of it. I'm also watching

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just in the crypto arena that Bitcoin
has some cycles that are certainly have my

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attention coming into play in mid to
late July, when ideally they would at

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a higher high than what we saw
in mid April. But if that's going

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to be the case, Bitcoin really
needs to hold at or above the twenty

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five thousand level. But if it
does that and rallies into that mid July

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time frame, that could be a
pretty significant peak in the crypto arena.

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All right, but if it breaks
twenty five thousand, all bets are off.

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Yeah, if it breaks in from
a cyclic perspective, I would still

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expect an intermediate high in mid to
late July, but what it would be

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showing is that it's very likely to
be a lower high, and it would

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still be after that time frame when
you would enter another bearish period. Okay,

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all right, I'm agreeing with you. There anything else food or to

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anything we should really be paying attention
to. Well, I'm still pretty somewhat

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barish on the greens, thinking that
they've got another leg down in soybeans and

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corn in particular. By the same
token, there are some pretty major cycles,

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multi year cycles showing that we could
see decisive bottoms in the third quarter

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of this year, ideally in the
July August time frame. So I think

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they've got another leg down, but
it we could we could start another bull

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market after the next low is set
again, ideally in that July August time

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frame. All right, here,
got a question for you. I'm not

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sure if you follow lumber or not, but I like it as a cater

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of housing as a possible predictor.
You got any info on that. I

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only watch lumber very kind of passively
look at kind of like you're saying there.

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Um, I use it as a
as an indicator and look at it

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from time to time, but I
really haven't it's spent much time on it

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lately, so I wouldn't feel comfortable
giving a strong opinion on it. Yeah.

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Probably interest rates more or less tell
you everything you need to know about

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housing in the long run, anyway, although the advent of the cash buyer

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the expansion is definitely changed things.
But based on what you're saying with interest

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rate, it's probably peaking. That's
probably a net positive for housing, isn't

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it. That's that's kind of hard
to to say because it depends on the

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chicken or the egg syndrome. Um, it could be that housing which really

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had such a I guess you wouldn't
call it a bubble. That's such a

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parabolic move over the last couple of
years. Um, it's got the head

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winds now of high interest rates.
You know, even if interest rates pull

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back a little bit, it's they
are still a significant um burden on people

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looking at buying new houses. You've
got supply that was, you know,

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they've been struggling so much to keep
up with. And you see a lot

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of things on the on the horizon
as far as supply increasing, and so

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it could be that housing is coming
down and that's what drives interest rates to

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drop. Just again, it's it's
in every case, and I talk about

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this. I have an axiom in
my trading manual that deals with correlations between

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individual markets, between factors like this, and it's it can be very deceptive

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to look at one thing and think
there is a one hundred percent consistent correlation

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between that and the other, because
the first thing you need to know is

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which one is leading the other.
Often they move in in coincidence. Like

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the old phrase, coincidence does not
necessarily mean causality, and so so if

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interest rates are going to drop early
next year, maybe even late this year,

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like I'm expecting, that doesn't necessarily
mean that all of a sudden housing

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goes up. That maybe that the
interest rates are dropping in reaction to housing

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coming down. So you have to
look at each individually and then start to

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kind of see if there's a higher
confidence correlation at work there. Right,

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Yeah, Well, I'm looking at
the housing ETF homes h O m Z,

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and it looks like it's triple topping
for the year. We had a

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top August of twenty two, August
sixteenth, we got a higher peak in

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February second of twenty three, and
now looks like it might have peaked a

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little bit lower June thirteenth, which
was yesterday. Actually, so that's not

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I mean, it's really an indecipherable
kind of chart here looking at because it

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had up until yesterday, it had
definitely had higher lows. So but if

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it goes to a lower high,
what do we make of this? Well,

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it'd be kind of like I was
just saying that there's I think there

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are that there consists continues to be
some headwinds against housing, and and that

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00:28:18,720 --> 00:28:26,960
it still has some correction to do
same gant that big move up that you

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saw in twenty twenty one two.
So even if it's just a matter of

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coming back to a little bit more
of an equilibrium point, uh, And

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even if that's a rising equalibrium point
like a like a rising moving average,

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if a market gets too far away
from it, it's too high above it,

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it ultimately comes back towards it.
And and even though that might might

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be reaffirming a long term positive trend, in the meantime, while the market's

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coming from that, we're blown peak
back to the media or the equilibrium point

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00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:11,200
that's there's there's some pain that's felt
during that time. And so that's kind

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00:29:11,200 --> 00:29:17,559
of what I'm expecting in in housing, that there is just some some correction

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00:29:17,680 --> 00:29:22,759
that still needs to flesh out from
what we saw over the last couple of

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00:29:22,839 --> 00:29:26,559
years. All Right, Well,
I think you've given us a really good

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00:29:26,599 --> 00:29:30,359
overview of the markets where they're heading. Just tell us, Eric, the

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00:29:30,640 --> 00:29:37,279
best place to find you these days
it is at our main website inside track

291
00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:41,240
treading dot com. That's with the
extra I in the middle of inside.

292
00:29:41,240 --> 00:29:47,519
So it's i nsiide track treading dot
Com. All right, And there's a

293
00:29:47,599 --> 00:29:52,640
link to it in the show notes
to this interview on Financial Survival Network dot

294
00:29:52,759 --> 00:29:56,559
com and hey, go there.
You can just click that link and get

295
00:29:56,720 --> 00:30:00,880
right to eric site sign up,
and while you're there, to sign up

296
00:30:00,920 --> 00:30:03,960
for a free newsletter. Eric always
a pleasure. By the way, if

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00:30:03,960 --> 00:30:06,759
you got a question for Eric,
which I'm sure you do, shoot me

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00:30:06,799 --> 00:30:10,400
an email k L at Karrie Letz
dot com. We'll get you an answer.

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00:30:10,839 --> 00:30:14,000
Eric always a pleasure. Thanks for
coming on, Thanks for heaving me

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00:30:14,079 --> 00:30:18,880
back carry thanks for listening to Carrie
Letz's Financial Survival Network, your solution to

301
00:30:19,039 --> 00:30:25,319
today's trying times. For the latest, go to Financial Survival Network dot com.

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00:30:25,559 --> 00:30:29,319
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