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Welcome to another edition of the Checks
on the Right podcast, where we bring

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in our friend Zach Abraham, who
is the chief investment officer at Bulwark Capital

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Management to help us break down what's
happening in the financial world economic world that

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we are in. And earlier this
week, Zach, we played a clip

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on our regular live stream of Charles
Paine which was very depressing because it was

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basically him just saying things are looking
really shitty out there, you guys,

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it's bad, And it's just totally
counter narrative to everything that Democrats are saying

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right now. They're like bidomics,
Yeah, everything's rosy. What is going

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on? What is the real deal? So I think that you just we

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got a lot of cross currents going
on, and I think it's really confusing.

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And I think one of the biggest
things that's confusing people is it's been

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almost forty years since our last bout
with inflation, right, and people see

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these growth numbers and they're like,
Wow, the economy is cranking. The

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reason they're the reason that's the thought
if I see a five and a half

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percent GDP for a quarter, the
reason that looks really good is we have

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what we call nominal growth versus real
growth, right, And it really makes

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sense. If the economy is growing
at five and a half percent but you

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have six percent inflation, you're not
growing, right, You're shrinking right.

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Well, for so long, five
percent growth was with a two to two

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and a half percent inflation backdrop.
Okay, So now you've got them posting

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five and a half. The Atlanta
Fed, which has been pretty accurate in

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the last thirty days, have dropped
their GDP estimate from five point nine to

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four point nine. That's a big
move south. Okay. We're showing inflation

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raging between four to five Okay,
So what does that tell you? It

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tells you there's no growth. Okay. Now, in a zero percent interest

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rate environment, that's not as much
of a problem because the tab isn't running,

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right, everybody can refinance at record
low rates. Money is free essentially,

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especially for banks to borrow and shadow
banks and all these different things.

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But you're looking at corporate debt.
We saw a couple of corporate debt refinancings

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happen, just to quite a few. There's going to be a day lugevum

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next year. That's another thing nobody's
working into their earnings forecast. If the

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average S and P five hundred company
has to take a couple billion dollars pile

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of debt and refinance it at five
to six as opposed to two and a

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half to three, okay, gets
getting sucked right out of earnings, right.

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So it's everybody is trading, in
my opinion, based off of the

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last fifteen years, meaning it's like
zero percent interest rates, but they're not

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paying attention to the pernicious nature of
interest rates and how they continue to chew

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away at things as time goes on. Right, Like, if you think

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about the last fifteen years, we
had several economic scares, right, but

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you're at zero percent interest rates.
So the minute something bad happened defended,

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just start buying US government treasuries or
mortgage back securities. Again, liquidity starts

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getting pumped into the system and rising
tide lifts all boats. Right. Well,

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the opposite is happening now, and
everybody is behaving as if it's the

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same. So what we're seeing right
now is a rapid deterioration and consumer spending.

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Now, when I say rapid,
I mean coming from a lofty level

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down to close to flat SKay zero
now everybody goes, well, it's not

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regressing, and I'm like, well, remember, consumers spending is inflation.

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It's reflecting inflation. So if consumer
spending stays flat but inflation rises five percent,

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you're gonna look like now, there's
certain metrics that pull out inflation.

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But bottom line is, if consumer
spending is flat and inflation is running at

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five percent, you are going backwards, and you're going backwards in a meaningful

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way. Right, here's the other
queue. If it was as good as

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everybody's saying, why so many earnings
misses and downward revisions, Why did US

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Airlines come out and guide for lower
and lower their own profitability targets? Why

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did Delta come out and do the
exact same thing. What do we constantly

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here? The consumers strong, The
service industry is strong, right, we

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actually traditionally we see things like value
or excuse me, flight travel, and

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the services sector kind of be the
last to roll over. Well, you're

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listening to restaurants coming out and saying
they're missing the foot traffics down. Airlines

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are coming saying that it's dropping.
Right, And here's the issue. The

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issue is is you have a market
that is priced as if rates are at

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zero, okay, and the FETE
is still buying treasuries and stimmies are still

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in everybody's pockets, right, stimulus, it's not the case. So we're

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looking at an economy where you're going, Okay, you guys are pricing this

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market as if consumer spending is just
going to keep rising. It's not.

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That's craziness, right. You look
at what's happened to interest rates and taking

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away the stimulus. And then also, guys, think about how many durable

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goods. So durable goods are something
that we buy in the economy that lasts

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for a refrigerator, washing machine,
right, stuff like that. Okay,

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well, do you think people are
going to continue to buy those things at

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the paces they have over the last
two and a half to three years.

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Of course not. You don't need
three laundry or washing machines, right,

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you don't need three backyard remodels.
So part of it, and this gets

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into the definition of economics when we
talk about stimulus. Okay, stimulus doesn't

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create new economic activity. What it
does is it sucks future economic activity into

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the present. Right, Meaning if
you pass a new stimulus deal or a

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new tax break to buy a new
car. I'm going to buy a new

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car this year, but I'm not
going to keep buying new cars every year.

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Right. So at the same time, you're watching this commercial real estate

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and look, the commercial office space
is getting smoked no matter what anybody says,

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Okay, we'll continue to say the
same. In residential housing, I'm

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listening to these people going residential housing
isn't down, and I'm like, dude,

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quit looking at the official numbers.
Volumes of house sales are down fifty

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percent. Okay, what does that
mean? The only houses that are being

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sold are people that can afford to
sell them, meaning they're not worried about

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getting into another high interest rate loan. Right, and it's people who can

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pay cash. What did we just
describe the wealthy? Okay? So the

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wealthy people or the people who aren't
constrained fiscally, those are the sales you're

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seeing. So when you start looking
at what prices these things need to be

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priced at in order to actually sell, it's significantly lower. And we can

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see that in markets like Houston,
or we can see that in markets several

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and feet up in Texas. We
can see it in Phoenix, we can

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see it in the Seattle area.
You can see it in the Bay Area

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and everybody's like, oh, Housings
hanging in there, and you're like,

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Housings down fifteen to twenty percent,
depending on where you're at in the country.

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Right, it's just not selling and
everybody's just got their fingers in their

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ears, going la la la la. You know, you know, tell

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me something good. Right, the
other part of it, and I'll kind

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of get into the anecdotal side of
it. There's a saying in this industry

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that when you're managing money the correct
way, in a discipline manner, and

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you're not just chasing at the height
of every cycle, you should lose some

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of your clients. Okay, now
we've lost very few, but so far

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this year we've lost more clients.
We've probably bled. This is a heck

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of a market employ right, telling
people that we've lost clients. But the

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reason we've lost clients is we're up
a couple percent. We're positioned very securely.

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One of the reasons, guys,
that we were positioned securely is last

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year, when markets were down twenty
to thirty five and the average retirement portfolio

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was down twenty five to twenty seven, our average client was down six and

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a half to seven, right,
So our attitude was, Hey, we're

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going to keep playing it safe.
If the market wants to come back and

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catch us, so be it.
This isn't the environment where we want to

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be really aggressive, right. Well, the number one reason you lose clients

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in this industry is the market's going
up and you're not, and the clients

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don't have the Usually they don't have
the ability to sit back and go wait

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a second, when I factor in
how I did last year and this year,

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I'm still ahead of the game,
right, That's not the way they

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look at it. And so anecdotally, you see people. I was having

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a conversation with a client the other
day and I said, do you understand

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the things I'm telling you economically?
And he goes, yeah, absolutely,

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and he goes Zach, but at
the end of the day, those stocks

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are still going up, and I
go, well, for now, right,

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for now they are, and he's
going to expect you to like know

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exactly when they're gonna stop doing what
they're doing. Oh yeah, one.

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And that's why you know, in
investing, you know, there's you know,

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it kind of reminds me of the
Bible, right there's a season for

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everything. There's a time to be
aggressive. There's a time to be when

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we can sit back and own these
ridiculously cheap companies that are producing things like

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natural gas, oil and copper,
things that the world desperately needs and isn't

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short supply of. They're paying us
six to eight percent dividends to own it.

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The companies have zero debt, and
they're trading it two to three times

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earnings. Right, and then I
can own a chunk at two year treasuries

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that have virtually zero risk, paying
me a guaranteed five percent if if the

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worst the worst thing that happens to
our clients this year is they make six

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to seven percent, I'm okay with
that, right. But what people need

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to understand is that if you're being
cautious right now, you're not missing out

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on a run. Okay, what
you're doing is sitting there going. I

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don't think it is wise to pay
ever more expensive prices for companies whose fundamentals

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are deteriorating right underneath them, right, And it's not that we're predicting it,

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it's happening. You see earnings down, revenues down, you see you

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know a company like Apple, whose
growth is at the lowest point we've seen

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in twenty years, you know,
launching a new phone that's two hundred dollars

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more. That's the exact same as
the last phone they put out, which

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I own and is not a very
great phone quite honestly, you know,

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it's just this cycle has run its
course and people are used to for fifteen

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years, things have gone up.
And the sad thing about it is,

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guys, is that usually the least
experienced retail and this is what happens in

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every cycle, the most inexperienced people
get the most aggressive at precisely the wrong

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time. Here's another anecdotal piece of
information. Retail investors right now our position

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more aggressively than they have ever been
in history. So if this is like

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other times in the past when retail
gets the most excited, think of nineteen

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ninety nine and two thousand, that's
the time you should be running from the

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hills because those are the people that
are not looking at the fundamentals. Those

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are the people that are trying to
bid Tesla up. As Tesla cuts the

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price of its cars by twenty percent, therefore erasing its margin and its profit.

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You know what we do and we
talked about this little off air what

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we're doing right now, and our
attitude is really simple. We think that

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we live in crazy times, okay. We think that guarding against the big

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downside move is the biggest threat here
and if we're wrong, you guys.

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One of the reasons we do it, honestly, is just for moral clarity

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and the ability to sleep at night. If our clients leave us because we

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made them five to seven percent when
the markets of fifteen to twenty, I

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can sleep at night, right.
I don't want that to be the case.

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I'm really competitive. We've beaten the
market the last two to three years

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in a row. I love doing
that. At the end of the day,

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our job is to finance the rest
of their lives, not to make

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the most in an insane market we
can make in a twelve month period of

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time. You know, it's a
good philosophy. I mean, that's a

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really good philosophy to live by when
it comes to this. I mean,

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especially when you know, I mean, I think a lot of people that

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are leaving, they probably look over
their shoulder and they're like, well,

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dang, maybe I should have stayed. Yeah, Well, we we already

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had a couple of those this year. We had we had a couple of

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those this year that left for whatever
reasons over the last two years and got

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destroyed last year. And it's you
know, it's yeah, it's not a

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fun conversation to have. You know, they came back with twenty percent less

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money. But you know, through
that experience, they become better clients because

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they understand sometimes we will protect against
risks that don't happen, that's just the

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name of the game. But if
the worst case scenario is we make a

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little less, you know, we
can live with that. This isn't about

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We're not at a craps table.
We're not at a roulette table, right

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We're trying to finance the rest of
your life. And what's crazy is we

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live in an environment right now where
everybody just thinks, oh, buy it,

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it's going up. Well, it's
going up because a bunch of people

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that aren't informed are bidding up the
price irrespective of the underlying fundamentals. That's

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a losing game. It always has
been, and you know it will be

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this time. Yeah. Well,
the way that we talk about you to

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our audience is that you know,
we talk about the fact that you actively

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manage risk and that you are helping
people who are close to nearing or in

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retirement avoid losing big giant chunks of
money. So what can people expect when

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they reach out to you, like, what's your process? How how can

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we tell them that you're going to
best help them? Yeah? Well so,

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and we do things very differently than
everybody else. So first of all,

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when we sit down, you know, I'll give a couple of people

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to if you ever interview somebody like
me or somebody that works at another financial

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firm, and when you meet with
them in the first meeting and they show

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up with investment suggestions, run okay
because they don't know you and they don't

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know what you're after. And if
they already came with something to sell you

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or a preconceived idea of what you
should have, it just means that they

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have a system and they're plugging you
into it. Right. What we do

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is we sit down and look at
somebody's entire life and sit there and go,

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Okay, what does social security look
like? When do you think you're

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going to retire? How much do
you all in your house? Joan and

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the other rental properties. All of
those things need to be considered before we

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can make a portfolio recommendation. Right, We'll have people that come in that

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are virtually the same age, that
have the exact same amount of net worth,

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and they'll be invested completely different based
on what the rest of their life

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looks like. Right, And so
it really comes first and foremost. We

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need to assess what are your goals
for retirement? Right? What kind of

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income do we need to generate to
complete those goals or to accomplish those goals?

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And then how do we sit back
and how do we accomplish those goals

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taking as little risk as possible,
Again, especially in this environment, right,

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there's going to be a time to
get aggressive. It's not when the

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stock market is trading at the second
highest valuation it's been out in fifty years,

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okay, and at the end of
the longest bull market in history.

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So it's assessing how do we get
there, how do we accomplish those goals

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looking outside the box, not just
relying on bonds and stocks. Maybe we

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need a real estate investment trust mixed
in there. Maybe we need some short

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term treasuries paying Maybe the answer is
to have a zero risk portfolio. Right

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now, for you, you know, it really depends on where you're at,

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and then building a portfolio that you
know that represents that and then the

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next part of it For us,
and I tell people this all the time.

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What most firms do is they take
your money and they put it and

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manage money programs. Okay, if
we did that with our clients, I

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would be able to get rid of
my two analysts, my other portfolio manager,

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and are two full time traders.
Okay, that would save me about

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one point two million dollars a year. People ask me, well, why

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would you spend that extra one point
two million dollars a year? And I

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go, why do you think?
Right? If I could, you know,

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that's not a bad deal. Right. If I do it like everybody

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else, I immediately make one point
two million dollars a year more. You

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know, I'm I'm I'm not a
crazy wealthy guy. One point two mill

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is still a lot of money,
right. Yeah. The reason we do

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it is because we took an oath
to do what was best for our clients.

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And you know, sometimes it will
work. But but bottom line is

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we have an incredibly complex, changing
environment and we need to be able to

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pivot at the drop of a hat
with all this craziness. And that's that's

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the way I mean. I wish
we didn't. I wish I believed that

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doing it their way was the best, because, like I said, I

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would have a lot more money.
But that's part of us being a fiduciary

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too, you know what I mean, where we are truly on the same

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side as the meaning, if your
account goes down forty percent, my paycheck

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does too. Right. And and
I think that cook should eat their own

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cooking and they should have skin in
the game. And when you're set up

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like that, it really is a
partnership, right, We're both we're both

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eating the same cooking, and our
tails are both on the line, and

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you know, we're going to protect
their money like it's you know, like

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it's our own. So how can
people get in touch with you and learn

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more? Yeah, so a couple
easy ways. First of all, uh,

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you know, you can go to
the go to our website Bullward Capital

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Management dot com. You can find
our weekly radio show and Know your Risk

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Radio dot com. We're on every
podcast service out there, Apple I to

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all that stuff. You just you
know, just search Know your Risk Radio.

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We also do a daily thing called
the daily dots. So every year,

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every day after the market closes,
we do a twelve to fifteen minute

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summary of what important happened that day, important earnings, announcements, fed you

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know, fed minutes, all that
kind of stuff. Pretty easy to find.

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And then in the next week or
two we have a virtual road show

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coming up. It costs nothing.
It's about a forty five minute presentation that

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shows you our process, shows you
what we do differently and how it works

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and how we can lower risk,
lower your fees and increase your upside.

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And we're just showing you how it's
worked, right, Not making prognostications,

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is showing, hey, the proofs
in the pudding. Here's how we do

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things. And then if they're interested
further after that, they can set up

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a call with me or one of
our other advisors and really get an in

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depth and then we'll make a portfolio
portfolio suggestion for them and then there's no

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twisting arms. Right, If you
want to be a client, you want

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to join us, great, if
you don't, hopefully leave more informed,

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but yeah, the virtual road show
coming up in the next week or two

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is probably the easiest way. It's
free. Only have one hundred and twenty

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five spots. They usually fill up
pretty quick, but I think that's the

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easiest way to get a good,
you know, three hundred and sixty degree

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understanding of what we do and how
we do it. That's awesome. Yes,

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thank you so much, Zach.
You're always on top of everything and

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you break things down so easily for
people to understand that. We appreciate it.

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Oh, thank you, ladies.
Always fun to be here.
