1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:04,320 So the FED is responsible for all the debt that now makes it impossible for 2 00:00:04,320 --> 00:00:08,359 the FED to fight inflation, except that investors haven't figured that out yet. 3 00:00:08,439 --> 00:00:11,039 They still think, well, you know, if to FED just delays the 4 00:00:11,119 --> 00:00:13,880 raid cuts a couple of months, that'll do the Trick's not going to happen. 5 00:00:14,119 --> 00:00:17,760 Inflations are going to run out of control, and when people come to 6 00:00:17,800 --> 00:00:21,120 that conclusion, they are going to be running from dollars. You're listening to 7 00:00:21,239 --> 00:00:26,800 Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, where you get valuable information you just can't find 8 00:00:26,839 --> 00:00:32,920 anywhere else to thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial Survival Network 9 00:00:33,200 --> 00:00:38,479 now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com and get your free 10 00:00:38,520 --> 00:00:48,320 newsletter and gift. Financial Survival Network now more than ever, And welcome. 11 00:00:48,640 --> 00:00:52,759 You are listening to the Financial Survival Network. I'm her host, Carrie Lutz, 12 00:00:53,079 --> 00:00:58,119 special guest on today. I've known this person now for fourteen years, 13 00:00:58,759 --> 00:01:03,760 and hey, it looks like his time is here upon us, Peter Schiff 14 00:01:04,239 --> 00:01:08,959 and a euro Pacific Peter. Where's the best place to find you these days? 15 00:01:10,560 --> 00:01:11,879 For those who are looking for you? Well, first of all, 16 00:01:11,959 --> 00:01:15,560 kare I thought I knew you know, a lot longer than fourteen years. 17 00:01:15,680 --> 00:01:19,319 I don't know games that we've been so travel I don't like same circles. 18 00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:23,879 I don't want to get into the age thing. Man. Maybe maybe fifteen 19 00:01:23,920 --> 00:01:27,359 at the most seems like forever we've been on this merry go round though, 20 00:01:27,439 --> 00:01:32,000 right, Yeah, Well, a lot of people are about to get thrown 21 00:01:32,079 --> 00:01:36,000 off. But I know I'm the the same place I've been for probably all 22 00:01:36,040 --> 00:01:40,400 those fourteen years. You know, you can find me on the internet. 23 00:01:40,799 --> 00:01:46,239 You got I got my YouTube channel at Peter ship Show or Shift Report. 24 00:01:46,640 --> 00:01:51,040 I'm on Twitter now with almost a million followers, so yeah, I had 25 00:01:51,079 --> 00:01:56,560 a lot fewer back then. But you know, same website youropack dot com 26 00:01:56,680 --> 00:02:00,920 is my asset management company, although I used to be your capital now it's 27 00:02:00,959 --> 00:02:05,519 just your Pacific asset management. That happened around the time that I moved to 28 00:02:05,959 --> 00:02:08,560 Puerto Rico. I've been living here now full time for about seven years, 29 00:02:09,360 --> 00:02:15,599 part time for over ten. And you know Shift Gold that's still the same 30 00:02:15,840 --> 00:02:20,840 same website where people can buy gold for now under twenty two hundred bucks. 31 00:02:20,879 --> 00:02:23,639 I was talking about the opportunity to try to buy it below two thousand because 32 00:02:23,639 --> 00:02:29,080 I thought pretty soon that those low prices would be gone, and I think 33 00:02:29,120 --> 00:02:30,639 they are. I mean, I doubt we're going back down below two thousand 34 00:02:30,719 --> 00:02:35,560 again, but I think you know where we are now is still very close 35 00:02:35,599 --> 00:02:38,919 to the floor if two thousand is in fact the new floor on the price 36 00:02:38,960 --> 00:02:45,639 in gold. So you can get me at Shift Gold and my podcast Shift 37 00:02:45,719 --> 00:02:51,120 Radio about that. I do my podcasts usually about two a week, sometimes 38 00:02:51,159 --> 00:02:54,240 more, sometimes one. I usually don't skip a week, so usually get 39 00:02:54,240 --> 00:03:00,759 at least one podcast out of me. So you've been living in the tax 40 00:03:00,840 --> 00:03:07,199 havean called Puerto Rico now for yeah, I mean it's it's a tax haven 41 00:03:07,319 --> 00:03:12,680 for some people, you know, not for everybody. Not too. You 42 00:03:12,759 --> 00:03:15,319 have to, you know, you have to arrange your affairs in a certain 43 00:03:15,319 --> 00:03:21,280 way. But yeah, I mean it's certainly worth doing. I also enjoy 44 00:03:21,360 --> 00:03:23,240 it here. I mean I have some problems with the local government, but 45 00:03:23,360 --> 00:03:29,560 I mean I got problems with a lot of governments. But yeah, they 46 00:03:29,599 --> 00:03:34,599 haven't really treated me that well. But the income tax rates are low, 47 00:03:34,680 --> 00:03:38,120 so from that respect, you know, yeah, they don't take take most 48 00:03:38,159 --> 00:03:42,199 of my income like the US government does. So you pay you pay uh 49 00:03:43,360 --> 00:03:46,439 a zero percent on capital gains which you know includes federal because I pay no 50 00:03:46,520 --> 00:03:51,080 federal capital gains living here, so I pay four percent I mean zero percent 51 00:03:51,159 --> 00:03:55,240 capital gains in Puerto Rico, and I pay four percent on the vast majority 52 00:03:55,240 --> 00:04:00,639 of my income four percent tax. Yeah, and that's the that's the so 53 00:04:00,639 --> 00:04:02,879 I don't have to worry about the federal tax for that. I only pay 54 00:04:02,960 --> 00:04:08,120 federal taxes on my non Puerto Rican sourced income, which would be you know, 55 00:04:08,199 --> 00:04:12,080 dividends on a gold mining stock you know there, I would pay US 56 00:04:12,120 --> 00:04:14,919 tax on those dividends. But if I sell the stock in a profit, 57 00:04:14,960 --> 00:04:17,560 I pay no tax on that, right right? Well, who would think 58 00:04:17,600 --> 00:04:23,120 you would be an ex patriot in your own country. I remember years ago 59 00:04:23,519 --> 00:04:29,240 meeting British people who are living in the Monaco because they basically paid into taxes 60 00:04:29,720 --> 00:04:32,879 and the people too. So yeah, but if an American moves to Monaco, 61 00:04:32,920 --> 00:04:39,639 they're still paying US tax. That's the problem be in America exactly. 62 00:04:39,759 --> 00:04:43,160 So when you get to taxes, we get to all these problems. We 63 00:04:43,240 --> 00:04:48,480 got literally runaway spending, runaway deficits. The next election from that standpoint, 64 00:04:48,560 --> 00:04:53,399 and the eventual collapse really isn't going to matter, is it. Well, 65 00:04:53,439 --> 00:04:56,720 I mean, the real collapse that's coming is going to be the collapse of 66 00:04:56,720 --> 00:05:00,279 our currency, collapse with a dollar are our standard of living here in the 67 00:05:00,399 --> 00:05:08,160 United States. I mean, hopefully it won't be a permanent collapse that you 68 00:05:08,160 --> 00:05:11,160 know, there's some you know, light at the end of a very long 69 00:05:11,199 --> 00:05:15,279 tunnel. But we're we're headed for a lot of problems, you know. 70 00:05:15,399 --> 00:05:17,839 And the day of reckoning has been a long time in coming. And we've 71 00:05:17,920 --> 00:05:20,360 kicked the can down the road, and we continue to kick it down the 72 00:05:20,439 --> 00:05:25,480 road. But I've been expecting that our ability to do that is going to 73 00:05:25,519 --> 00:05:29,160 come to an abrupt end one day and it's probably one day soon at this 74 00:05:29,240 --> 00:05:31,519 point. How much longer can they kick the can down the road? Oh 75 00:05:31,600 --> 00:05:33,720 though, I mean, you got a thirty four and a half trillion dollar 76 00:05:33,839 --> 00:05:40,600 deficit. You know, we're rising three to four trillion per year in the 77 00:05:40,680 --> 00:05:45,279 national debt, and that's going to accelerate as you know, we move into 78 00:05:45,319 --> 00:05:48,920 recession or as the current recession gets worse. I mean, I actually think 79 00:05:49,399 --> 00:05:55,000 that we're in a recession. I think all the talk about this strong resilient 80 00:05:55,040 --> 00:06:00,839 economy is just a bunch of talk. I think people should listen to the 81 00:06:00,920 --> 00:06:05,480 voters who are giving Biden the lowest marks on the economy probably in the history 82 00:06:05,519 --> 00:06:11,680 of these popularity surveys. And that's not because we have a strong economy. 83 00:06:11,839 --> 00:06:15,600 It's because the public is living in the economy and they know how weak it 84 00:06:15,639 --> 00:06:18,160 is. But a lot of the jobs we got jobs numbers out on Friday. 85 00:06:18,160 --> 00:06:21,240 It was a horrible jobs report. Even though the headline number was a 86 00:06:21,279 --> 00:06:26,079 beat, The headline number is always a beat. Meanwhile, they went back 87 00:06:26,079 --> 00:06:28,920 to the prior month and they knocked out about one hundred and twenty five thousand 88 00:06:29,040 --> 00:06:32,839 jobs, including almost all the manufacturing jobs that they claimed were created. And 89 00:06:32,879 --> 00:06:38,639 then last month we lost manufacturing jobs. Manufacturing is in a recession. It's 90 00:06:38,639 --> 00:06:44,560 spent in a recession for years. Even the government statistics acknowledge that the manufacturing 91 00:06:44,639 --> 00:06:48,160 is in a recession. The trade death sits keep getting worse because we're not 92 00:06:48,240 --> 00:06:55,040 producing. Meanwhile, I look at the debt levels, household debt, credit 93 00:06:55,040 --> 00:07:00,319 card debt soaring to all time record highs. So that's all. Inflation is 94 00:07:00,319 --> 00:07:03,120 an expansion of the money supply and the supply of credit. And the whole 95 00:07:03,160 --> 00:07:08,360 time the Fed has been claiming to be fighting inflation, credit has been expanding 96 00:07:08,360 --> 00:07:12,079 the entire time, and that credit is used to bid up prices, and 97 00:07:12,120 --> 00:07:15,800 that's what we're seeing. That's why the inflation numbers that came out this morning 98 00:07:15,839 --> 00:07:18,600 again were hotter than expected. As I expected, they'd been that way for 99 00:07:18,639 --> 00:07:25,000 a while. Now inflation is bottomed. Disinflation is over. It's now reflation 100 00:07:25,240 --> 00:07:28,600 or just plain old inflation. But we're not going back down to two percent. 101 00:07:28,639 --> 00:07:30,079 We're more likely going back up to nine percent. In fact, we're 102 00:07:30,120 --> 00:07:33,720 probably going to go higher than that. The question is when are the market's 103 00:07:33,759 --> 00:07:36,480 going to figure it out? And what if anything is to fed a reserve 104 00:07:36,680 --> 00:07:41,480 going to do about it. That's a good question. And but what I 105 00:07:41,560 --> 00:07:47,079 said before is Trump was no deficit hawk, right we go, Well, 106 00:07:47,079 --> 00:07:49,800 he's pretending to be now. You know, when he's not president, he 107 00:07:49,879 --> 00:07:55,040 talks a good game about, you know, cutting spending. In fact, 108 00:07:55,079 --> 00:07:58,160 I just saw an interview with him the other day in which he was talking 109 00:07:58,160 --> 00:08:01,199 about, you know, how he was paying the debt and now he was 110 00:08:01,319 --> 00:08:03,959 cutting spending him. It's like it's a fantasy world. But you know, 111 00:08:05,000 --> 00:08:09,079 everybody lies. Biden lies about how great the economy is now, and Trump 112 00:08:09,120 --> 00:08:11,040 lies about how great it was when he was president. The truth of the 113 00:08:11,040 --> 00:08:15,879 matter is it was a bubble under Trump. It's just a bigger bubble under 114 00:08:15,879 --> 00:08:22,800 Biden. And the difference between the Trump and Biden is that Trump actually remembers 115 00:08:22,839 --> 00:08:28,199 his lies and Biden doesn't. Right, I don't know what Biden remembers or 116 00:08:28,199 --> 00:08:31,560 what he even believes. But yeah, I mean cognitively, you know, 117 00:08:31,800 --> 00:08:35,320 at least Trump, you know, is in control of his faculties, and 118 00:08:35,799 --> 00:08:39,399 you know, and and and it is you know, is capable of making 119 00:08:39,759 --> 00:08:43,080 a form decision. I mean, he may make the wrong decision, but 120 00:08:43,159 --> 00:08:48,000 he also may you know, may listen to reason. I think that when 121 00:08:48,039 --> 00:08:50,960 we do have this you know, economic crisis, which will you know, 122 00:08:52,000 --> 00:08:54,120 take the form of a sovereign debt and the currency crisis, and when we 123 00:08:54,240 --> 00:09:01,399 really have to make the tough decisions about eliminating government agencies and departments and cutting 124 00:09:01,399 --> 00:09:03,840 spending, you know, kind of like what Malay is doing, doubt in 125 00:09:03,960 --> 00:09:09,399 Argentina, when we actually do that stuff, I mean, Trump is far 126 00:09:09,440 --> 00:09:13,840 more likely to agree to it than buy it. So let's talk about what 127 00:09:13,919 --> 00:09:18,639 Malay is doing there in Argentina, because that could become the template for the 128 00:09:18,639 --> 00:09:22,799 rest of the world. Because once this fake stuff blows up, where is 129 00:09:22,840 --> 00:09:28,440 that going to leave us? Do we follow? Remember, Argentina's been living 130 00:09:28,480 --> 00:09:31,120 in misery for a long time, you know they. I mean, things 131 00:09:31,120 --> 00:09:35,559 have been pretty tough down there, and so I hope it doesn't take America 132 00:09:35,639 --> 00:09:39,039 that long to come to the same realization that the Argentines have, and that 133 00:09:39,200 --> 00:09:45,320 is that government doesn't work. Socialism is a lie, and government is the 134 00:09:45,320 --> 00:09:48,840 source of all the problems that it claims to be trying to solve. And 135 00:09:48,919 --> 00:09:54,519 so the problems that government causes have been so bad for so long that the 136 00:09:54,639 --> 00:09:58,960 Argentinians were finally willing to say, you know, no, Moss, you 137 00:09:58,000 --> 00:10:05,000 know you, and let's try something different. And Malay had the something different, 138 00:10:05,440 --> 00:10:11,639 which is economic freedom, liberty and limited government. And people you know, 139 00:10:11,879 --> 00:10:16,600 don't really know history. I guess Americans in particular because they were educated 140 00:10:16,679 --> 00:10:22,200 or indoctrinated in government schools. But a undred years ago, Argentina was one 141 00:10:22,240 --> 00:10:26,080 of the wealthiest countries in the world. And in fact, they're an expression 142 00:10:26,159 --> 00:10:31,360 in America was he's as wealthy as an Argentine or as rich as an Argentine. 143 00:10:31,399 --> 00:10:35,240 I mean, they there was a lot of money down there, and 144 00:10:35,000 --> 00:10:39,799 you know, but the government destroyed all that with the same types of programs 145 00:10:39,120 --> 00:10:43,440 that our government has been destroying our country with. And you know, we're 146 00:10:43,600 --> 00:10:50,399 we're going to experience the same consequences. But every government that's ever been created 147 00:10:50,440 --> 00:10:52,600 has done the same thing, hasn't it. When they have it, it's 148 00:10:52,639 --> 00:10:56,080 been for short periods of time. Yeah, I mean looks to come. 149 00:10:56,639 --> 00:11:01,440 The founding fathers in the United States were very familiar with the track record of 150 00:11:01,480 --> 00:11:07,320 government, and they recognize that the success of a nation is defined by its 151 00:11:07,440 --> 00:11:13,559 ability to constrain its government. And that's what the whole Constitution was about. 152 00:11:13,600 --> 00:11:16,320 It was about chaining the government, binding the government, and the change and 153 00:11:16,360 --> 00:11:24,159 the Constitution is what they said. And they warned us that we can maintain 154 00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:28,080 our limit in our prosperity so long as we maintain those chains. But to 155 00:11:28,120 --> 00:11:33,159 the extent that the government was able to break free and start doing things that 156 00:11:33,200 --> 00:11:35,919 the Constitution prohibited, you know, our days were numbered. And that's what's 157 00:11:35,960 --> 00:11:41,279 happened. I mean, the Constitution now is basically a piece of paper for 158 00:11:41,360 --> 00:11:46,200 all practical purposes. The government does all sorts of things that are not authorized 159 00:11:46,919 --> 00:11:50,960 by the Constitution, yet it does it anyway, and so you know, 160 00:11:52,000 --> 00:11:54,960 that's why we're thirty four and a half trillion in debt. That's why we 161 00:11:54,039 --> 00:11:58,320 have you know, a couple of hundred trillion of unfunded liabilities. You know, 162 00:11:58,360 --> 00:12:01,799 that's why, you know, record numbers of married women have to work. 163 00:12:01,840 --> 00:12:07,919 That's why record numbers of workers have two or three jobs just to pay 164 00:12:07,919 --> 00:12:11,960 the bills. That's why Americans are drowning in debt and have no savings and 165 00:12:11,000 --> 00:12:15,679 are dependent on a government run POSI scheme for their retirement. You know, 166 00:12:15,720 --> 00:12:18,759 once upon a time, this is not the way it was in America. 167 00:12:18,840 --> 00:12:24,000 We were a very strong economy and we had you know, wealthy individuals and 168 00:12:24,960 --> 00:12:28,279 a small government. And I'm talking about just the middle class. I mean, 169 00:12:28,279 --> 00:12:31,559 we built the middle class. You know, the middle class didn't build 170 00:12:31,600 --> 00:12:35,559 the country. Capitalism and freedom built the middle class, you know, and 171 00:12:35,720 --> 00:12:41,480 government, government, regulation and taxation is destroyed. It so true. So 172 00:12:41,600 --> 00:12:46,720 going back to inflation, when you if you actually had a real inflation number 173 00:12:46,759 --> 00:12:52,960 figured into these elusive GDP numbers. We've been in a recession for years already, 174 00:12:54,039 --> 00:12:56,960 haven't we. Yeah. Well, you know a lot of people don't 175 00:12:56,000 --> 00:13:01,919 recall, or maybe they don't even know, but the Great Session two thousand 176 00:13:01,919 --> 00:13:05,919 and seven, two thousand and eight. That recession started in December of seven, 177 00:13:07,279 --> 00:13:11,879 but up until December of eight, a year later, everybody was talking 178 00:13:11,919 --> 00:13:16,600 about how great the economy was because all the numbers were still good. And 179 00:13:16,679 --> 00:13:20,360 I remember, you know, the summer of two thousand and eight being on 180 00:13:20,840 --> 00:13:28,080 you know, CNBC and Fox and CNN table shows arguing about the weakness in 181 00:13:28,120 --> 00:13:31,519 the economy, and people were saying, you know, no, the economy 182 00:13:31,559 --> 00:13:35,840 is great. It's the greatest story never told. It's goldilocks. There's no 183 00:13:35,919 --> 00:13:39,679 inflation, no recession anywhere in sight, and we were in a recession. 184 00:13:39,960 --> 00:13:43,039 They couldn't see one that they thought was in the future, but we were 185 00:13:43,080 --> 00:13:48,159 already in one in the present. The government all of a sudden in December 186 00:13:48,240 --> 00:13:52,519 of eight went back and they revised a year's worth of economic data, and 187 00:13:52,559 --> 00:13:56,080 then after the fact said, you know, we've actually been in a recession 188 00:13:56,120 --> 00:14:00,440 for a whole year. All the time we were giving you all this positive 189 00:14:00,519 --> 00:14:03,480 data, it was actually wrong. We were in a recession. So there 190 00:14:03,480 --> 00:14:09,519 already is a precedent for the government putting out bake data for an entire year 191 00:14:09,000 --> 00:14:13,240 before having to go back and admit the truth. They even admitted what the 192 00:14:13,279 --> 00:14:16,840 truth was. So I think that you know, given this as an election 193 00:14:16,960 --> 00:14:22,320 year two, that there's a good chance that the data that we've been receiving 194 00:14:22,360 --> 00:14:26,519 that is leading people to believe we have a strong economy is in fact inaccurate, 195 00:14:26,600 --> 00:14:30,919 and it will be revised and we'll find out that we're in a recession 196 00:14:31,000 --> 00:14:33,120 right now. In fact, every month, I think maybe there's been one 197 00:14:33,159 --> 00:14:37,799 month in the last year year and a half where they haven't revised down the 198 00:14:37,879 --> 00:14:41,799 job's number a month after. I mean, that's not random coincidence. I 199 00:14:41,799 --> 00:14:45,879 mean, if you toss a coin, you're not going to get, you 200 00:14:45,960 --> 00:14:48,679 know, fifteen heads in one tail. I mean, if that happens is 201 00:14:48,720 --> 00:14:54,120 because the coin is not fair. There's something itch ring right, and so 202 00:14:54,200 --> 00:14:58,879 the government is rigging these numbers. It's always overestimating how many jobs were created, 203 00:15:00,399 --> 00:15:03,440 and then it comes back the next month and eliminates them and comes up 204 00:15:03,480 --> 00:15:07,919 with another overestimation. But the media always seeses on what they report for that 205 00:15:09,080 --> 00:15:11,480 month. They ignore the revisions for the prior months, and they don't look 206 00:15:11,519 --> 00:15:15,960 beneath the surface, and they don't look at the household survey which shows every 207 00:15:16,000 --> 00:15:20,080 month that we lose jobs, and in fact, there are fewer people with 208 00:15:20,159 --> 00:15:22,840 full time jobs now than there were a couple of years ago. True, 209 00:15:24,000 --> 00:15:28,759 and pretty much all the jobs that we're creating are part time jobs, and 210 00:15:28,799 --> 00:15:31,519 they're all going to people who already have jobs. So it's not like people 211 00:15:31,600 --> 00:15:37,200 are moving from the unemployment line to some production line. It's people that have 212 00:15:37,399 --> 00:15:43,200 jobs that are moonlighting. And they're not moonlighting because they want to, it's 213 00:15:43,240 --> 00:15:46,759 because they have to. It's because their salaries haven't kept pace with the true 214 00:15:48,240 --> 00:15:50,600 increase in the cost of living, and so the only way to pay the 215 00:15:50,639 --> 00:15:54,159 bills other than putting it on a credit card is to get another job. 216 00:15:56,120 --> 00:15:58,240 And that's why a lot of people do it. And then Biden wants to 217 00:15:58,279 --> 00:16:02,120 claim credit for all these jobs that are being created when the people who are 218 00:16:02,320 --> 00:16:06,159 working these jobs would prefer not to have them. So they want to blame 219 00:16:06,240 --> 00:16:08,279 Biden for these jobs. They don't want to give him credit. Yeah, 220 00:16:08,320 --> 00:16:11,240 they're going to give it. Eight. So, going back in history, 221 00:16:11,720 --> 00:16:17,080 you mentioned the Great Financial Collapse, the GFC, as they call it, 222 00:16:17,200 --> 00:16:22,320 the Great Recession. You give a talk, you're a keynote speaker at the 223 00:16:22,480 --> 00:16:29,600 National Association of Realtors. If I remember correctly explaining to them that housing was 224 00:16:29,679 --> 00:16:33,240 going to have a bust, and yeah, well you're talking about That was 225 00:16:33,279 --> 00:16:38,799 mortgage Banker's conference in Las Vegas, right. I spoke there twice in two 226 00:16:38,879 --> 00:16:42,399 thousand and six, in two thousand and seven, And the only reason I 227 00:16:42,480 --> 00:16:47,679 came back in two thousand and seven was because I was trying to get investors 228 00:16:47,720 --> 00:16:51,879 into my hedge funds short the subprime market. No, two thousand and six, 229 00:16:51,879 --> 00:16:53,399 excuse me. I spoke in two thousand and five, in two thousand 230 00:16:53,440 --> 00:16:56,840 and six, so two thousand and six was the second talk. And I 231 00:16:56,879 --> 00:17:00,720 always spoke because they gave me a workshop where I could, you know, 232 00:17:02,039 --> 00:17:06,079 promote and look for investors in the hedge fund. And you know, there 233 00:17:06,079 --> 00:17:08,559 were three thousand mortgage bankers there, and I thought, some of these guys 234 00:17:08,599 --> 00:17:11,319 are going to want to put a little money, you know, on the 235 00:17:11,359 --> 00:17:15,640 don't pass line just as a hedge because they all make their living in mortgage 236 00:17:15,680 --> 00:17:18,079 finance. And I was going to tell them that the whole market was going 237 00:17:18,119 --> 00:17:21,319 to implode, and I thought maybe some of them would like to just bet 238 00:17:21,359 --> 00:17:26,039 a little bit on shorty subprime so that they lost their jobs. You know, 239 00:17:26,039 --> 00:17:29,079 they could at least make money in the fund. But out of the 240 00:17:29,200 --> 00:17:33,240 three thousand people that were there, maybe fifty sixty decided to hear me out 241 00:17:33,279 --> 00:17:37,960 for my hedge fund. And out of those guys, only one guy invested 242 00:17:37,319 --> 00:17:41,759 and he sent in five hundred thousand dollars and about a year later I sent 243 00:17:41,839 --> 00:17:45,079 him back five million. So that was that was his return short for shorty 244 00:17:45,119 --> 00:17:51,240 Subprime Abey, after he paid the twenty percent profit share. But yeah, 245 00:17:51,279 --> 00:17:52,920 I mean, people just didn't want to believe it. I was trying to 246 00:17:52,960 --> 00:17:56,559 tell them, you know, what was really going on in the mortgage market 247 00:17:56,640 --> 00:18:00,920 and the alsie market, but you know, nobody could accept that reality. 248 00:18:00,920 --> 00:18:03,000 And you know, the same thing is happening today. I mean, it's 249 00:18:03,039 --> 00:18:07,599 cognitive dissident. People are trapped in a gigantic bubble and they think everything is 250 00:18:07,640 --> 00:18:11,559 great and they think it's imperious, and you know, I've been warning about 251 00:18:11,599 --> 00:18:15,279 it for years and years, the way I warned about the housing bubble for 252 00:18:15,400 --> 00:18:19,480 years and years. But as the bubble got bigger, everybody just assumed that 253 00:18:19,519 --> 00:18:23,119 I was wrong. And the bubble we have now, which is much bigger 254 00:18:23,119 --> 00:18:27,480 than a mere housing bubble, has been inflating for you know, many many 255 00:18:27,480 --> 00:18:32,039 more years, and people have just made the same mistake. They think, 256 00:18:32,079 --> 00:18:33,759 well, I've been warning about it for so long, I must be wrong, 257 00:18:34,319 --> 00:18:37,759 because you know, nothing's crashed, you know, the stock markets and 258 00:18:37,799 --> 00:18:42,079 a record e right, so Peter Schiff must be wrong. I'm not wrong. 259 00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:47,400 All the problems that I've been warning about have gotten worse as i've been 260 00:18:47,440 --> 00:18:51,200 warning about them. And it doesn't mean that there's no consequences. It just 261 00:18:51,240 --> 00:18:55,079 means that the consequences are going to be even worse because we allowed it to 262 00:18:55,119 --> 00:18:57,759 continue for so long. Because in a now, allowing it to continue, 263 00:18:57,759 --> 00:19:02,480 we actually make it worse, right, we make them bigger bubble, and 264 00:19:02,519 --> 00:19:07,000 so it's even you know, greater consequences and more people are going to get 265 00:19:07,039 --> 00:19:11,440 decimated when when it pops and pop it will. Do you think there was 266 00:19:11,680 --> 00:19:15,920 anything you could have said to those people back in two thousand and five, 267 00:19:17,000 --> 00:19:22,000 two thousand and six, anything you could have done. I don't know. 268 00:19:22,039 --> 00:19:26,160 I tried. I tried my best because I was going to get a percentage 269 00:19:26,200 --> 00:19:30,200 of their profits if they got into the fund. No, I mean I 270 00:19:30,319 --> 00:19:33,799 was talking until I was blue in the face, you know, I mean, 271 00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:37,839 I haven't seen anything like that you know, it was even worse, 272 00:19:37,880 --> 00:19:41,680 I thought than the dot coms, because I tried to talk to a lot 273 00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:44,359 of people about why I thought the dot coms were going to come down. 274 00:19:44,640 --> 00:19:47,480 But the people who own these stocks, I mean, we're really like religious 275 00:19:47,519 --> 00:19:52,720 fanatics and like nothing I said, you know, penetrated their own self defense 276 00:19:52,920 --> 00:19:56,400 wall that they built up. Housing, to me was almost worse or was 277 00:19:56,680 --> 00:20:00,480 in that, you know, people own homes and they couldn't even contemplate that 278 00:20:00,519 --> 00:20:04,240 the price can go down, right, that's impossible, right, but real 279 00:20:04,319 --> 00:20:08,519 estate doesn't go down. Yeah, But what I've seen now in bitcoin tops, 280 00:20:08,559 --> 00:20:14,799 it all takes the cake. I've never seen more irrational exuberance, more 281 00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:19,839 arrogance, I've never I've never seen more smart people say so many dumb things 282 00:20:21,960 --> 00:20:25,720 other than through in bitcoin into crypto. So this is this is the worst 283 00:20:25,759 --> 00:20:30,119 of them as far as I'm concerned with psychology and occultish nature of what's going 284 00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:33,279 on. But all these bubbles are sourced, you know, basically from the 285 00:20:33,319 --> 00:20:38,160 FED and cheap money and and and you know, the crypto bubble is just 286 00:20:38,279 --> 00:20:42,440 you know, the epitomey of it. But I mean, there are a 287 00:20:42,480 --> 00:20:47,039 lot of other examples of what's going on. And that's another thing where people 288 00:20:47,079 --> 00:20:49,559 say, well, I've you been warning about bitcoin being a bubble for a 289 00:20:49,599 --> 00:20:52,240 long time. Yeah, I have, and the bubble just gets bigger and 290 00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:56,519 bigger and bigger. That doesn't mean that I was wrong about my underlying assessment 291 00:20:57,079 --> 00:21:00,480 of what of what bitcoin is. You know, Michael Sailor is out the 292 00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:03,440 other day, you know, just borrowed another six hundred and eight hundred million 293 00:21:03,599 --> 00:21:07,519 to buy more bitcoin, right with borrowed money. But he acknowledges that it's 294 00:21:07,559 --> 00:21:11,720 not a currency. He says, it's it's not a good media of exchange 295 00:21:11,799 --> 00:21:15,279 or a unit of account. He just thinks it's the ultimate store of value. 296 00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:18,079 But what value is it storing if it doesn't do anything? It does 297 00:21:18,079 --> 00:21:22,119 it does it generate income, It doesn't have any real use case. And 298 00:21:22,160 --> 00:21:27,480 he says that bitcoin is the greatest property, that digital property. He thinks 299 00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:33,079 bitcoin is better than gold, better than stocks, better than real estate. 300 00:21:33,799 --> 00:21:40,319 It's nothing, it's but you know this, this is the reality of where 301 00:21:40,920 --> 00:21:44,200 of what we're living in. But look, it's going to come crashing down. 302 00:21:44,559 --> 00:21:48,960 And that's what. Look, I've got my own money invested. I'm 303 00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:52,960 prepared, you know, I own real assets. I have the portfolio of 304 00:21:53,039 --> 00:21:59,880 global equities, a good dividend paying value stocks. The businesses that I own, 305 00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:04,799 I invest in for myself and clients are selling uh uh services or providing 306 00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:11,440 services, producing manufacturing products, harvesting resources that the world needs, that their 307 00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:15,119 customers need, that they're going to keep paying for if they raise their prices, 308 00:22:15,160 --> 00:22:18,400 they're going to keep buying, and the companies are going to keep paying 309 00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:22,200 me dividends. I've got a lot of resource type stocks. I've been loaded 310 00:22:22,279 --> 00:22:25,279 up, you know on the gold mining stocks. Uh. They've been giving 311 00:22:25,319 --> 00:22:27,519 them away. In fact, a lot of people recently I've been selling their 312 00:22:27,519 --> 00:22:33,000 gold stocks and their goal to buy bitcoin ETFs, which has been a godsend 313 00:22:33,119 --> 00:22:36,880 for people like me and my clients. This gives us more opportunity to buy. 314 00:22:37,599 --> 00:22:41,720 It's unfortunate that that people are trading in their goal for trinkings of you 315 00:22:41,759 --> 00:22:45,160 know nothing. But the other big winners have been the foreign central banks. 316 00:22:45,160 --> 00:22:48,519 They're the major buyers of gold. You know, they keep buying up all 317 00:22:48,559 --> 00:22:52,599 the gold. And you know, as much as a lot of people don't 318 00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:56,400 like central bankers, and you know, you know, I don't like them 319 00:22:56,480 --> 00:22:59,440 very much either. Uh. You got to, you know, respect what 320 00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:03,039 they're doing and take note, because you know it's not that they're just reading 321 00:23:03,039 --> 00:23:07,359 the writing on the wall. They put the writing on the wall. They 322 00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:11,400 wrote it. They are de dollarizing and they are getting out of dollars, 323 00:23:11,559 --> 00:23:15,200 and what are they getting into. They're getting into gold. Right, you 324 00:23:15,279 --> 00:23:17,720 have to get into something when you get out of the dollar. You got 325 00:23:17,759 --> 00:23:21,640 to buy something with the dollars. They are buying gold and they have a 326 00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:25,599 lot more goal to buy. And the only reason the price isn't already much 327 00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:30,160 higher is because you know, other people were dumb enough to sell theirs and 328 00:23:30,279 --> 00:23:34,440 so these the ETFs have been providing goal to foreign central banks. But at 329 00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:38,279 some point the selling is going to exhaust and Americans are going to stop selling 330 00:23:38,279 --> 00:23:41,559 their goal. And then the question is where are the foreign central banks going 331 00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:45,559 to get it? Because the gold mining companies aren't producing that much, so 332 00:23:45,759 --> 00:23:48,799 the prices are going to have to go a lot higher to get production up 333 00:23:48,799 --> 00:23:52,400 to where it needs to be to satisfy all the demand that's coming not just 334 00:23:52,519 --> 00:23:57,880 from continued demand from central banks, but a return of retail demand. And 335 00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:03,240 I think a big movie by institutions in the goal because right now what's holding 336 00:24:03,279 --> 00:24:07,960 gold back as everybody thinks that the inflation genie is back in the bottle, 337 00:24:07,160 --> 00:24:11,920 right the rate irons work and we're back at two percent. They didn't work. 338 00:24:12,759 --> 00:24:15,359 Rates are too low. They need to be higher, but the FED 339 00:24:15,440 --> 00:24:19,279 can't raise them higher because we're too broke, especially in the US government, 340 00:24:19,480 --> 00:24:23,359 which is already spending at trillion dollars a year on interest. We're now spending 341 00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:26,880 more on interest and on national defense, and we spend too much on national 342 00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:32,559 defense. But we can cut national defense. We can't cut the interest unless 343 00:24:32,599 --> 00:24:36,720 we want a default on our debt. But that one trillion dollar number price 344 00:24:36,799 --> 00:24:40,480 tag is headed to two trillion and then higher, and so the FED is 345 00:24:40,519 --> 00:24:45,400 in a box. It can't fight inflation. So instead of uh, you 346 00:24:45,440 --> 00:24:48,880 know, fighting in barks, it just talks about fighting inflation and how it's 347 00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:55,000 willing to be tough, but it can't really do anything because it's hamstrung by 348 00:24:55,079 --> 00:24:57,000 the amount of debt. But the reason there's so much debt is because the 349 00:24:57,039 --> 00:25:00,680 FED kept interest rates so low for so long and enabled it all to happen. 350 00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:06,000 So the FED is responsible for all the debt that now makes it impossible 351 00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:10,160 for the FED to fight inflation, except that investors haven't figured that out yet. 352 00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:11,759 They still think, well, you know, if the FED just delays 353 00:25:11,799 --> 00:25:15,039 the raid cuts a couple of months, that'll do the trick. It's not 354 00:25:15,079 --> 00:25:18,519 going to happen. Inflations are going to run out of control, and when 355 00:25:18,559 --> 00:25:22,519 people come to that conclusion, they are going to be running from dollars and 356 00:25:22,519 --> 00:25:26,160 and moving into gold. But you don't want to wait for that to happen. 357 00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:29,480 That's why you know, I'm I'm fully invested, you know. I 358 00:25:29,519 --> 00:25:32,720 think there are a lot of people that think they're you know, they're super 359 00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:37,200 smart and they can time this, that they can figure out exactly when to 360 00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:40,519 get into the gold stocks or get out of the dollar. I know that 361 00:25:40,559 --> 00:25:42,960 I'm not smart enough to do that, and I don't know anybody who really 362 00:25:44,039 --> 00:25:47,079 is. They could be accurate, you know, So I just want to 363 00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:52,759 I know what the end game is, and the only way to make sure 364 00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:56,880 that you win is to be properly positioned. Now, don't don't hope that 365 00:25:56,920 --> 00:26:00,400 you're going to end up in the right position because you're gonna you're gonna time 366 00:26:00,400 --> 00:26:03,319 it perfectly. You don't have to time it perfectly, you just have to 367 00:26:03,319 --> 00:26:08,480 be early. Yeah, all right, Well, hey, so real estate, 368 00:26:08,920 --> 00:26:14,319 what's what's going to happen there? Well, I mean depends on what 369 00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:18,400 you're looking at. I mean, commercial real estate is a disaster, which 370 00:26:18,480 --> 00:26:22,319 was not even a problem. In two thousand and eight. Commercial real estate 371 00:26:22,359 --> 00:26:26,680 went up, and now it's obliterated. I mean you've got properties that are 372 00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:30,920 down fifty to sixty seventy percent. You know, people are walking away from 373 00:26:32,039 --> 00:26:37,839 office buildings and strip malls and and the banks are stuck with them, and 374 00:26:37,839 --> 00:26:44,359 there's foreclosures. So there's huge losses you know for the regional banks that are 375 00:26:44,359 --> 00:26:48,000 holding out of this paper. The residential real estate market is very different. 376 00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:52,559 Banks are losing a ton of money on their residential mortgages too, not because 377 00:26:52,599 --> 00:26:56,440 of default, because people are paying. The problem is and they're paying three 378 00:26:56,519 --> 00:27:02,680 percent four percent and their cost of money is five percent. So the mortgages 379 00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:06,119 that they used to make money on when the Fed ad rates said zero, 380 00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:10,599 they're losing money on those mortgages now, and that they have to sell the 381 00:27:10,640 --> 00:27:14,359 mortgages because the depositors want their money. They're looking at, you know, 382 00:27:15,920 --> 00:27:19,000 losses. I mean, basically all these banks are insolvent. Uh. If 383 00:27:19,039 --> 00:27:22,519 the depositors want their money, or if they had to do honest accounting. 384 00:27:22,599 --> 00:27:27,000 So everything is being propped up, you know, by cooking the books, 385 00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:33,400 and by government backstops and guarantees, and by the Fed. So I think 386 00:27:33,440 --> 00:27:36,200 the banks are in a lot of trouble. But what's the dynamics in the 387 00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:42,279 housing market now are very different than what they were in eight Even though the 388 00:27:42,359 --> 00:27:48,240 market is overpriced just the way it was back then. The difference is now 389 00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:53,599 you've got so many people who own those overpriced homes that have very valuable mortgages 390 00:27:55,000 --> 00:27:57,119 that they don't want to lose. Right if I've got some bank that was 391 00:27:57,200 --> 00:28:03,079 Domino to loan me money for thirty years at three percent, and maybe I 392 00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:07,200 got twenty five years left on that mortgage, I ain't moving, no, 393 00:28:07,359 --> 00:28:11,279 I mean, because I'm going to make those payments because rents of skyrocketed, 394 00:28:11,599 --> 00:28:15,799 but my mortgage payment hasn't and it's locked in. And so but the only 395 00:28:15,839 --> 00:28:19,079 way you can keep that mortgage is if you know is if you keep the 396 00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:22,759 house, you know you, So these houses are not on the market. 397 00:28:22,000 --> 00:28:26,119 People aren't selling the houses because they want it. They want the mortgage. 398 00:28:26,119 --> 00:28:30,400 I mean, the banks could pay people to sell their houses, so they 399 00:28:30,400 --> 00:28:33,559 can get out out of jail on these mortgages that they're they're losing all this 400 00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:37,240 money out, so you're not getting houses on the market. Normally, when 401 00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:41,240 rates go up, you know, housing prices come down to offset it. 402 00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:47,279 But they're not coming down because there's no supply. Also, what's constraining supply 403 00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:51,799 is inflation has driven up the cost of construction and the cost of labor, 404 00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:56,440 so you can't really build the houses right, and so there's not enough houses 405 00:28:56,480 --> 00:29:00,480 on the market. And that's another reason that that that rents can keep going 406 00:29:00,559 --> 00:29:06,440 up because the landlords know that their tenants are stuck as renters because they can't 407 00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:10,640 afford to buy. But you know, the people who have these fixed rate 408 00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:15,400 mortgages, they're not just you know, it's not all sunshine at lollipops because 409 00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:19,240 they're maintenance built, their insurance costs, their taxes, I mean, all 410 00:29:19,279 --> 00:29:22,599 the other costs of home ownership are going up. The only thing that's not 411 00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:26,759 going up is their fixed rate mortgage payment. So, you know, but 412 00:29:26,880 --> 00:29:30,640 I do think that at some point, you know, houses are going to 413 00:29:30,680 --> 00:29:32,839 come on the market. People are going to die, people are going to 414 00:29:32,880 --> 00:29:34,359 lose their jobs, people are going to get divorced. I mean, things 415 00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:40,720 are going to happen, and so the supply will eventually build. And in 416 00:29:40,799 --> 00:29:44,039 some really really open priced markets, I mean there's a lot of room for 417 00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:48,079 prices to come down. You know California for example, you know, and 418 00:29:48,200 --> 00:29:52,200 a lot of these markets too. You have other dynamics of soaring crime. 419 00:29:52,839 --> 00:29:53,920 You know, we're being pulled, you know, I mean just you know, 420 00:29:55,000 --> 00:29:56,920 we're going to want to get out, and you know who's going to 421 00:29:56,960 --> 00:30:00,400 want to buy, so the prices are going to have to come tow So 422 00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:03,799 it's very much you know, a local market, right. All real estate 423 00:30:03,839 --> 00:30:07,359 is local, So it's not like a big model it where I can say 424 00:30:07,839 --> 00:30:11,640 home prices are going down, some own prices will go down, and other 425 00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:15,880 own prices could go up. I remember, all of this is in an 426 00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:19,319 inflationary environment, so nothing's really going up, right. It's the dollar that's 427 00:30:19,359 --> 00:30:23,359 going down, that's what's happening. Right, So your house isn't becoming more 428 00:30:23,440 --> 00:30:27,240 valuable. It's just the dollars that people would pay you to buy your house 429 00:30:27,359 --> 00:30:32,880 are becoming less valuable, so you need a lot more dollars for the house. 430 00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:36,319 That's all that's happening, all right, Well, I think you've summed 431 00:30:36,359 --> 00:30:41,119 it up quite well. And as my ex love partner used to say, 432 00:30:41,160 --> 00:30:48,240 the situation is hopeless but never serious, but it's looking more serious by the 433 00:30:48,319 --> 00:30:56,640 day. Here so best place to find you europac dot com and we'll have 434 00:30:56,799 --> 00:31:00,720 links to your podcast and to Shift Gold of course in the show that this 435 00:31:00,799 --> 00:31:06,960 interview on Financial Survival Network dot com orways a pleasure having you on Peter, 436 00:31:07,359 --> 00:31:11,039 even if the words aren't that encouraging, Hey better you should know the truth 437 00:31:11,079 --> 00:31:17,359 and you can hopefully do something that's ignorant. That's what I told the people 438 00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:21,640 at that mortgage banker's conference. You know, forewarned is forearmed. Don't shoot 439 00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:26,599 the messenger, be glad that you got the message, and take action to 440 00:31:26,680 --> 00:31:30,039 protect yourself. And you know, that's what I would encourage all of your 441 00:31:30,599 --> 00:31:34,119 listeners to do, is to you know, not ignore the warnings, just 442 00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:38,440 to do something so you don't regret it later. All the things you could 443 00:31:38,440 --> 00:31:41,319 have done and should have done it would have done, just do them now. 444 00:31:41,400 --> 00:31:45,880 And yeah, I get a hold of my guys at you'repack dot com 445 00:31:45,119 --> 00:31:48,799 or if you're doing yourself or you don't have five mutual funds, your Pacific 446 00:31:48,839 --> 00:31:53,440 funds. You can buy no load on any of the major discount prokerage firms. 447 00:31:53,480 --> 00:31:57,240 You know, we've been getting net redemptions for months out of our goalfund 448 00:31:57,279 --> 00:32:00,039 as the price of goal keeps going up. Ever said anything like it. 449 00:32:00,440 --> 00:32:05,279 Normally the public wants to buy when the market is going up, but recently 450 00:32:05,279 --> 00:32:07,759 they've been selling, and you know, the public is generally wrong, and 451 00:32:07,839 --> 00:32:12,039 so you want to buy what they're selling. And what they're selling is gold 452 00:32:12,079 --> 00:32:15,519 stocks, so you can you can get into the Europacific goalflud all right, 453 00:32:15,720 --> 00:32:19,839 excellent. Hey, if you've got a question for Peter or myself, shoot 454 00:32:19,880 --> 00:32:23,200 me an email k l at Terry LUTs dot com. Peter, stay well, 455 00:32:23,359 --> 00:32:27,759 stay safe and we will talk to you again soon. You to carry 456 00:32:27,839 --> 00:32:31,880 nicely. Be with you. Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, 457 00:32:32,079 --> 00:32:37,880 your solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to Financial 458 00:32:37,960 --> 00:32:43,599 Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever