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Welcome to a brand new, one
hundred percent free episode of the Low Limit

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Cash Games podcast. This is a
podcast I created exclusively for you, the

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lowest stakes poker player at your local
card room or at your home poker games

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one two no limit, one to
three no limit. We're here to help

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you become a winning player. Got
a lot of people to think who have

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sent me messages, done reviews,
became fans of the pod. But of

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course we're saving all that to the
very end of the podcast. They were

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talking about sets first two pairs,
and not just sets first two pairs.

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I will speak about it in general, but we're going to be speaking about

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a very specific set of circumstances with
sets first two pairs that I see players

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at low stakes get wrong all the
time, and I think the reason,

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well I don't think, I know
the reason they get it wrong is because

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they just don't understand the math behind
it. And so today I'm hoping that

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if this is a spot that you've
been in before, and maybe you haven't

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gone that deep into the math,
and maybe you don't really understand how gregeous

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the mistakes you may be making at
times, hopefully this episode of the podcast

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will help you. So we're specifically
going to be talking about a spot.

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We're gonna analyze a spot that assumes
that you know with near certainty that the

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player you're in the hand with always
has a flush on the turn. Okay,

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so you either have a set or
you have two pair. We are

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on the turn and the flush has
come in, and given the player type

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and the situation and the bets and
all this type stuff, we just know

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player just got a flush here,
Like they just have a flush. Like

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how sure are we? You can
never be one hundred percent sure of anything,

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of course, but we're just mostly
certain they just have flushes here.

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And so now the question becomes do
we continue to the river because we have

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outs to fill up? Right,
we have a set, we can hit

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a full house and we beat their
flush, so we're not dead. If

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we have two pair, we can
hit a full house on the river,

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we can fill up, so we're
not drawing dead. And so now it

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becomes an issue of do you continue
now? Again, just to be clear,

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I'm not talking about a spot where
you're on the turn versus a player

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that can bluff a three suit or
it's too dumb to know that they shouldn't

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betting their top pair when the three
suit comes in. I'm talking about a

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player where you just know it's super
rare that they ever have anything here on

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this turn other than a flush.
And our question is can we should we

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continue with our set or our two
pair. And so the problem that I

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see with low stakes players is they
don't think there's any difference between the two.

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They really don't. They're like,
yeah, I can hit either one

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of these, and we pair up, and yeah I need a board pair.

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We fill up, lamb, lamb. But it's not it's not that

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straightforward, and once you look at
the math, it's not even that close.

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So when you have a set verse
two pair on the turn which brings

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in a flush, it's very clear
your opponent it has a flush. How

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good a shapeer you in. So
if you have a set, you're twenty

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two percent to hit your set on
the river, twenty two percent to hit

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your set on the river. In
most cases, this is a ballpark.

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In most scenarios, it's going to
be around twenty two percent, sometimes percent

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or two lower, sometimes rarely higher. But for all intents as purposes,

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we cat just round it to around
twenty percent. I mean, you know,

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basically basically got a one in five
odds against your four to one.

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Now when you have two pair,
you may not think that it's that much

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different. If you haven't done the
math on it, you haven't done any

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studying on it, you may not
realize what an incredible difference there is between

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these two spots. But if you
have two pair, you're about nine percent

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to fill up on the river,
about nine percent. You're less than half.

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It's less than half. So whereas
you have one in about a one

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in five opportunity to fill up on
the river with a set so about odds

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about four to one against you,
we have about a one in ten chance

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of filling up on the river with
two pair, which is nine to one

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against. I mean, that's a
huge difference. It's an incredible difference.

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So, uh, let's take one
of the easiest scenarios to work through,

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where it's all in on the turn
right, Because this means there's no you

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know, you don't have any math
trying to figure out can you extract more

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money if you hit on the river
or whatever. We'll talk about that a

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little bit later. We'll talk about
the easiest, most simplest set of circumstances,

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it's all in on the turn.
If it's all in on the turn

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and you have a set, you've
got to be getting laid four to one.

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In other words, there needs to
be four times as much money in

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the pot as it cost you to
call. So if there's one hundred dollars

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in the pot, you know it
needs to be twenty You can't call any

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more than twenty five. Once you
start calling more than twenty five, then

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you're losing money. Doesn't matter if
you fill up or not, you still

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lose money. You're like, wow, is that possible. It's because this

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isn't the only time you're going to
be in this spot. We're in the

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spot one hundred times and we call
it every time, and when we pay

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more than twenty five dollars at the
end of those hundred times, we will

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be losing money. And that's how
all of poker works. Poker is never

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about this hand. It's about this
hand played out thousands of times across the

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year or across our lifetime. So
if it's an all impot and the pot

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doesn't laying you four to one with
your set, then you just really need

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to be folding now. If it's
close. You know, it's twenty six

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dollars instead of twenty five, it's
twenty seven dollars instead of twenty five,

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twenty eight dollars instead of twenty five. I mean, that's close enough that

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you can allow for error that maybe
sometimes your opponent is doing a two pair,

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or maybe they have top pair and
a flush draw some rare percentage of

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the time, even though you think
you even though so, we've already hopefully

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we've already done the mental work to
where we know this is an opponent that

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just doesn't do that hardly, if
ever. But maybe maybe even though it

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is an opponent who would do that
hardly, if ever, maybe once in

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a blue man they changed the way
they play and they jam it with top

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pair and a flush draw of some
sort. So you can call a little

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bit more than twenty five. Maybe
it'll work out being all right in the

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long term. But you definitely don't
call half pot, right, You can't.

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You can't call fifty. Can't be
one hundred dollars a pot and you

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have to call fifty. You're not
getting nearly enough odds. There's no room

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for error. It's just it's just
a horrible spot to be in. Now,

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that's what a set. It's much
worse when you have two pair.

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I mean you need to be getting
you need to be getting nine to one.

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You need to getting nine to one. What does that mean? That

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means for you to even call a
ten dollars bet, the pot would have

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to be ninety. I mean,
who's betting? Who's betting ten dollars into

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an eighty dollars pot, right,
because that's what they'd have to be doing.

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It'd have to be an eighty dollars
pot. They'd have to bet ten

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dollars into it to make it ninety, and you'd have to call ten to

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get your nine to one. I
mean, you just never Let's just face

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it, you're just never getting pot
odds when we're versus this very specific opponent

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that we are with almost the one
hundred cent certainty, they just have the

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flesh. We're just never getting the
odds with a two pair. And so

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this is the biggest mistake I see
with those steaks players, because they equivalent

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to two. They're like, oh, it's the same thing, Like they

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don't think any more about one than
the other. They put the money in

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with the two pair just as fast
as they do with the set without.

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First of all, they never really
consider pot odds at all. They're just

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like, you know, I can't
fold here. Ever, now, if

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you think about it, if if
there is any room for error, you're

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even better off in that instance with
the set as well, even bottom set

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right, because they could have top
two or something. But let's say you

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have bottom two. I mean,
what if sometimes your ponent's just jamming with

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top two. What if they have
the set. I mean, it's just

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you have a two pair, even
beyond the flush. It's just it's just

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way bad. It's just a bad, bad situation to be getting into.

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So the biggest mistake I see is
payers just they just put the money in

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with two pair because quote unquote,
I can still get a full house.

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I'm not drawing dead. Well,
sometimes you're drawing so thin. It's nearly

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the same thing as drawing dead.
And poker is all about math, and

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if the math don't add up in
your favor, and I don't mean the

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math of I got out, I
mean the math of the pot laying you

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the appropriate amount of odds for your
call, then you will be losing money

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on the call. Whether your full
house comes or not. And you may

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be thinking, well, if my
full house comes, it doesn't cost them.

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Yes, if you didn't get laid
enough money to hit the full house,

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then it cost you money over time, assuming you're going to continue to

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make that same call every time you're
in this spot, because the math will

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work itself out and you will be
a loser. So for this reason,

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it's it's safe to say, like
this is simplified advice, and I understand

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it's oversimplified advice. But when you're
versus an opponent like this, and keep

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in mind we're still referencing the fact
that it's this is a specific opponent we're

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up against. You just fold,
just always fold the two pair. You

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don't think about it. You don't
need to do the math. There's no

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way that an opponent is ever betting
small enough on his turn that you will

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ever have odds to call. No
opponent is ever betting one ninth pot on

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the river or one eighth pot or
whatever on the river. They just aren't.

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They just never are betting that small. And so you can just fold

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your two pair hands and that all
that leads us to do is work through

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the math. On sets. Now, on sets, it's really easy.

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When it's all in, right,
you just need to be getting four to

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one ish, right, you need
to be getting very close to four to

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one. You're off couple percentages or
whatever we'll roll with. That's an easy

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decision, All ends of decisions easy. Where there's a little bit of nuance

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is when it's not all in and
there's money left behind, because there is

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this thing called imply todds where you
can make up some of the money you

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aren't getting on the turn if you
hit on the river and you know you

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can get it out of them,
right, you know you can make it

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up on the river. So in
a case like that, let's say you're

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only getting three to one, right, So let's say they bet us the

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pot is seventy five on the turn, and it costs you twenty five to

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call. So you're only getting three
to one, and you need to be

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getting four to one, right.
You really need to be getting four to

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one. Well, as long as
if when you hit you can make up

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that other twenty five dollars on the
river, they'll call at least the twenty

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five dollars bet on the river when
you hit, and you know they will,

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and you know you're not going to
get crazy and bet so much they

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wan't call because you can't do that, can't bet so much they wan't call

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because if they fold and it's didn't
even though you get the fold on the

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river and you got there, it's
still not profitable because you did not get

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the four to one. You have
to get the four to one some way,

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somehow. The math don't lie.
Math is immutable. It doesn't bend

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to your whims. So if you're
only getting three to one on the turn

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when you need four to one,
you gotta ask yourself it when I hit,

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can I make up the other one
part on the river? And I

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think, almost exclusively, almost always
can. So in the case where the

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pot is seventy five and it costs
you twenty five to call, and you

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hit on the river, so now
the pot is going to be one hundred,

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could you bet twenty five on the
river and get called with somebody call

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twenty five with a flush on the
river, For sure they would. They

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might even call half pot. But
you know, once you push it past

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half pot board pairs, they start
considering folding, So you never want to

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bet so much they fold and you
could just go right on down the line,

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right, if you're getting two to
one, you're getting two to one.

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Can you make up the other two
on the river? That's another question

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for you. If it's if it's
one hundred dollars pot, it's costing you

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fifty, right, so you're getting
you're getting two to one, can you

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make up fifty on the river?
It's a good question. There's a questions

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you have to ask yourself. So
with a two payer hand, you don't

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really have these options. It's it's
just much more dire. You're just like

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never going to make up the other
eight eight nights of the pot on the

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river. You just never r when
it hits you should never going to be

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able to make it up. So
look, I would have this advice moving

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forward for simplicity's sake. We can
do some math and we can think about

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sets, right, and we knew
we do need to do that. We

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need to stop. Is it all
in? Is there money left behind?

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Can I make up what's I'm not
quite getting on the turn with a river?

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Bet when I get there and understand
the math, make sure the math

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is there with sets for two pays, I just don't think there's even any

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reason to do the math man,
when you're in a spot against opponent that

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you know they aren't betting this turn
nless they have the flush, right,

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they just aren't, Like I don't
know one and a one hundred times.

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Maybe they are one and one and
seventy five times. It's like a super

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rare occurrence. They might, but
I mean we just know, you know,

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like you never know one hundred percent, but like we're ninety eight percent,

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like they're just it's just a flush. Then you just toss the two

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pair and it's hard to do because
you can still get there, and it's

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you still want to feel like,
oh maybe I'm still ahead some even though

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you know you're not. I mean, when you're in that situation, toss

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the two pairs and let's do the
math on the sets. Thank you so

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much for listen today's episode. Hope
you enjoying the new format. I did

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it just for you. I try
to build people pleaser and the reason that

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we are able to do this because
all the many five people who have become

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fans of the pod, like John
Mackie, who not only decided to be

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a fan of the pod, he
decided to go ahead and pay up front

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for a year. John, I
appreciate that so much. Kevin Roberts became

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a fan of the pod. He's
paying for monthly. And then a Roger,

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Roger Beach became a fan of the
pod, and he went ahead and

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paid for a year. So these
guys are the guys that are getting another

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three extra episodes every month. They
get it over on the Patreon platform.

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So we used to just have every
Sunday an episode would come out on the

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public facing podcast feed and you just
get every and just I was overwhelmed with

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messages and questions and hand histories,
and I mean, I'm not gonna whine

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about it. I'm not crying about
it. I loved it for so long,

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but it became so overwhelming. It
was just unsustainable. It's unsustainable and

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people. It's weird how people start
to once something's free, they just think

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they can exploit it to the end
of the earth. They're like, oh,

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we can just we just yes,
it's fine. Not understanding there's a

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real life human on the other side
that's getting the two hundred, one hundred

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seventy five messages every single week asking
all these questions. Who is doing his

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00:15:09,399 --> 00:15:13,559
due diligence to try to reply to
all those give all those people his time

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for free, plus deal with his
people who he has committed to on Patreon,

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plus come up with ideas and concepts
for the pop pod. Plus do

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the outline of the pod, plus
record the pod, plus edit the cop

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pod, plus upload and schedule the
pod. I mean it's full Chip just

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comes a full time job at some
point, and it's for free. And

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people were like, well, I
liked the better when it was free.

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Well, I'm sure you did.
I mean I of course, of course

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we all liked the better when it
was free. Of course we liked the

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better when I didn't put ads in
it. Of course we loved it better.

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Then. It was better when when
our lives weren't disturbed by the free

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content. You know, of course
we liked it better. But it's just

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was unsustainable. So folks like this
who becomes friend of the pods, we

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all have them to think. Because
I'm still doing four episodes a month.

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It's up to you. Rather you
just get the one episode or whether you

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00:16:03,360 --> 00:16:06,720
get the four, you get the
one episode. You don't get any fluff

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up front, no ads up front
that I put in at talking about my

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00:16:10,960 --> 00:16:15,000
patreony of that, you don't get
me reading. Thank you's up front and

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you just get straight to the content, which is what you guys said.

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00:16:17,600 --> 00:16:19,240
You want straight to the content.
Just give me the content, man,

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and that's what you get. And
you can thank fans of the pot for

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00:16:22,440 --> 00:16:26,360
that. These guys are the true
MVPs. They're the heroes or a measly

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five bucks. They are world changers
and now I can't thank them enough.

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00:16:30,720 --> 00:16:34,399
Secondarily, I want to thank people
who leave reviews. So this is a

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00:16:34,399 --> 00:16:40,120
two parter. I would say Claw
Esque left the review that said this website

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00:16:40,200 --> 00:16:42,480
had changed him from somebody that just
looks as his cards as chips and says

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00:16:42,480 --> 00:16:45,679
what do I do now and to
somebody that looks around and knows what he

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00:16:45,720 --> 00:16:48,000
should be thinking about at every stage
of the hand. That's a great review,

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00:16:48,039 --> 00:16:52,320
Claw ask thank you for that.
I should also say that he also

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followed that up with a private message, prefect message to me on the Facebook

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00:16:56,480 --> 00:17:02,279
messenger and he said, I just
get gave you a review. I'm through

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00:17:02,320 --> 00:17:06,160
the second season. I just wanted
to thank you. I've been playing the

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00:17:06,200 --> 00:17:11,559
same game for twenty five years and
you have made my players so much better.

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00:17:11,640 --> 00:17:15,279
Thank you so much. So claw
esque. I won't use your real

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00:17:15,359 --> 00:17:18,200
name since you used an acronym,
but thank you so much. I really

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00:17:18,279 --> 00:17:22,400
appreciate that. And then we have
a three star review, and just let

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00:17:22,480 --> 00:17:25,799
me say I, if you're going
to be negative, at least thank you

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00:17:25,799 --> 00:17:27,920
for not making it a one star
and being just horrible about it. You

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00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:33,799
know, thank you, thank you
for at least still doing three stars this

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00:17:33,880 --> 00:17:37,400
game from Big Balls Lewis who used
to enjoy the podcast when it was free

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00:17:37,480 --> 00:17:42,400
and no ads, and you know
you just got it spoon fed for free

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and my life wasn't being consumed by
it like a full time job. But

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somewhere along the way it morphten to
ads for fans of the show and Patreon,

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00:17:56,039 --> 00:17:59,839
which is a euphemism for paying the
host. Well, it's not a

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euphemism for paying. It's it's paying. It's not an euphemism. It's paying,

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00:18:06,039 --> 00:18:11,519
not a euphemism. But Big Balls
Louis, I will salute you because

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00:18:11,039 --> 00:18:14,920
it's a man. It does take
a man, first of all, to

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put their thoughts out in public like
you did on the review. So I

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00:18:17,359 --> 00:18:19,839
thank you for the review. I
thank you for the positive parts of the

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00:18:19,880 --> 00:18:25,680
review, and then I thank you
because even though you're incensed by somebody that

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00:18:25,880 --> 00:18:30,039
basically is devoting hours and hours and
hours of their personal life every week to

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00:18:30,079 --> 00:18:33,240
it and just going, hey,
you appreciate it. Become a fan,

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00:18:33,279 --> 00:18:36,759
give me five dollars. Even though
you're insensed by that, you feel like

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00:18:36,839 --> 00:18:40,160
it's out of line, you still
did at least give three stars. And

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I want to give the tip of
the hat you for that because it means

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00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:45,119
a lot. And I hope you
keep listening. I hope you enjoy the

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00:18:45,160 --> 00:18:49,279
new format. I hope it's uh
brings back all the warm feelings of what

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00:18:49,359 --> 00:18:52,240
you remember when there never used to
be a call out for fans of the

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00:18:52,279 --> 00:18:56,920
pod. And with that being said, let's talk about it. Lowlimitcash Games

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00:18:56,920 --> 00:19:00,200
dot Com is how you become a
fan of the pod. And that's like,

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00:19:00,319 --> 00:19:03,240
hey, I love the four episodes
and I'm willing to toss you five

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00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:06,880
bucks to get the other three.
Now here's a little something that I don't

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00:19:06,920 --> 00:19:08,279
ever talk about, but when you
do become a fan of the Pods,

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00:19:08,319 --> 00:19:11,720
you now get access on the Patreon
platform, which means you can shoot me

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00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:15,400
messages on the Patreon platform. That
means your questions go to the head of

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00:19:15,400 --> 00:19:18,119
the line, So I try to
answer everybody. If you shoot me a

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00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:23,319
message on Facebook Messenger or Instagram Messenger
or whatever, I do try to answer

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00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:27,200
every single one of those, and
it's very time consuming. It's super time

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00:19:27,240 --> 00:19:30,640
consuming, and sometimes it may be
a week before you hear from me,

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00:19:30,680 --> 00:19:33,680
so maybe two weeks. Sometimes it
may be two hours. But I do

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00:19:33,759 --> 00:19:37,559
my best because I love interacting with
folks that listen to the pod. I

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00:19:37,599 --> 00:19:41,359
love talking hand in histories, I
love asking your strategy questions. I love

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00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:45,119
trying to help. I really do. It brings me great joy, even

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00:19:45,160 --> 00:19:48,400
though it's turned into essentially a full
time job, which is not what I

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00:19:48,440 --> 00:19:51,000
wanted, and I'm fixing that.
We fixed that. It doesn't feel like

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00:19:51,039 --> 00:19:53,720
a full time job anymore. I
made the change now that I should have

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00:19:53,720 --> 00:19:56,720
made at the beginning of the year. But I was just trying to do

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00:19:56,759 --> 00:20:00,880
a compromise. It's really my fault
for thinking I could do a compromise and

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00:20:00,920 --> 00:20:03,960
get away with it when I should
have just done what I knew needed to

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00:20:03,960 --> 00:20:08,000
be done, just do a public
facing episode one of them and then just

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00:20:08,079 --> 00:20:11,640
making the others behind a paywa wash. That's what I should have done,

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00:20:11,000 --> 00:20:14,799
and that's my fault, but I
tried. I tried to do a compromise

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00:20:14,920 --> 00:20:18,200
way where we could still do free
episodes every week and it not feel like

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00:20:18,240 --> 00:20:22,799
a full time job to me and
me not feel like and I was being

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00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:26,400
taken advantage of, which and I
don't mean anybody was doing that in a

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00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:30,839
predatory way. It just means I
genuinely asked that you could send me messages

313
00:20:30,839 --> 00:20:32,799
and I love hearing from me,
and I did, but it just became

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00:20:32,839 --> 00:20:36,680
overwhelming. It's just so overwhelming.
So when you become a fan of the

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00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:40,359
pod, you can now shoot me
messages on the Patreon platform using their messaging

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00:20:40,359 --> 00:20:41,839
system, which means you go straight
to the front of the line if you

317
00:20:41,839 --> 00:20:47,640
have a question. Whereas we're before, when you're just send me messages on

318
00:20:48,000 --> 00:20:51,319
Instagram and Facebook, I get to
them as soon as I can. I

319
00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:52,279
still do get to them, but
it's just as soon as I can.

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00:20:52,359 --> 00:20:55,559
So that's first of all. On
the second of all, if you want

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00:20:55,599 --> 00:20:59,480
full blown training, our full blown
Patreon training package, which is twenty five

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00:20:59,519 --> 00:21:02,480
bucks, half the price of anybody
else they're out there trying to train you

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00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:06,440
how to crush poker. It's targeted
right to the one two pet three Limit

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00:21:06,440 --> 00:21:08,759
Player. There's none of this stuff
that only applies to fifty one hundred or

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00:21:08,759 --> 00:21:14,359
twenty five, fifty or five ten, And we do fun things over there,

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00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:17,880
great things over there. The discord
communities are part of it. I've

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00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:21,880
seen you check that out. All
of it's at Lowlimit Cash Games dot com,

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00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:25,720
Low Limit Cash Games dot Com.
All the links and information stuff will

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00:21:25,759 --> 00:21:29,839
be down in the description and information
section of this podcast. And genuinely from

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00:21:29,880 --> 00:21:32,519
all my heart, I mean,
it doesn't matter how I say it and

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00:21:32,519 --> 00:21:34,480
how genuine I try to be about
it, there's always somebody that'll send me

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00:21:34,480 --> 00:21:37,559
messages that sound like I'm whining or
something. I mean, if that's how

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00:21:37,559 --> 00:21:41,799
it comes across, I so be
it. But I'm not whining. It's

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00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:44,920
just facts are just facts. It's
just where we were at with the pod.

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00:21:45,599 --> 00:21:49,799
The pod just got so popular,
so overwhelmingly popular. I could not

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00:21:51,200 --> 00:21:55,519
keep up with it and devote that
many hours of my life to it for

337
00:21:55,559 --> 00:21:57,839
free every week. I just couldn't. So the options were it has to

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00:21:57,880 --> 00:22:03,200
go away, or I have to
somehow justify them many hours of my time,

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00:22:03,359 --> 00:22:06,279
That's what it boiled down to.
And so it's not whining. It's

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00:22:06,319 --> 00:22:10,480
just facts. And I appreciate all
you for being here, whether you pay

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00:22:10,559 --> 00:22:12,839
or whether you don't, if you
listen to the free episode once a month

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00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:17,880
now and all the backlog of four
episodes that are all up for free,

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00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:21,359
or whether you become a fan of
the pod, or rather you become a

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00:22:21,400 --> 00:22:25,680
patron, I appreciate you all.
I appreciate this community experience. I love

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00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:29,359
getting messages from you, I love
trying to answer your questions. I love

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00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:32,000
trying to help any way I can, and I will continue to do that

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00:22:32,559 --> 00:22:33,960
for as long as I can.
So that being said, we'll wrap it

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00:22:34,039 --> 00:22:37,480
up here, we'll sign out,
and we will see in the next episode.

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00:22:37,480 --> 00:22:37,160
Thanks so much,
