Welcome to a brand new, one hundred percent free episode of the Low Limit
Cash Games podcast. This is a podcast I created exclusively for you, the
lowest stakes poker player at your local card room or at your home poker games
one two no limit, one to three no limit. We're here to help
you become a winning player. Got a lot of people to think who have
sent me messages, done reviews, became fans of the pod. But of
course we're saving all that to the very end of the podcast. They were
talking about sets first two pairs, and not just sets first two pairs.
I will speak about it in general, but we're going to be speaking about
a very specific set of circumstances with sets first two pairs that I see players
at low stakes get wrong all the time, and I think the reason,
well I don't think, I know the reason they get it wrong is because
they just don't understand the math behind it. And so today I'm hoping that
if this is a spot that you've been in before, and maybe you haven't
gone that deep into the math, and maybe you don't really understand how gregeous
the mistakes you may be making at times, hopefully this episode of the podcast
will help you. So we're specifically going to be talking about a spot.
We're gonna analyze a spot that assumes that you know with near certainty that the
player you're in the hand with always has a flush on the turn. Okay,
so you either have a set or you have two pair. We are
on the turn and the flush has come in, and given the player type
and the situation and the bets and all this type stuff, we just know
player just got a flush here, Like they just have a flush. Like
how sure are we? You can never be one hundred percent sure of anything,
of course, but we're just mostly certain they just have flushes here.
And so now the question becomes do we continue to the river because we have
outs to fill up? Right, we have a set, we can hit
a full house and we beat their flush, so we're not dead. If
we have two pair, we can hit a full house on the river,
we can fill up, so we're not drawing dead. And so now it
becomes an issue of do you continue now? Again, just to be clear,
I'm not talking about a spot where you're on the turn versus a player
that can bluff a three suit or it's too dumb to know that they shouldn't
betting their top pair when the three suit comes in. I'm talking about a
player where you just know it's super rare that they ever have anything here on
this turn other than a flush. And our question is can we should we
continue with our set or our two pair. And so the problem that I
see with low stakes players is they don't think there's any difference between the two.
They really don't. They're like, yeah, I can hit either one
of these, and we pair up, and yeah I need a board pair.
We fill up, lamb, lamb. But it's not it's not that
straightforward, and once you look at the math, it's not even that close.
So when you have a set verse two pair on the turn which brings
in a flush, it's very clear your opponent it has a flush. How
good a shapeer you in. So if you have a set, you're twenty
two percent to hit your set on the river, twenty two percent to hit
your set on the river. In most cases, this is a ballpark.
In most scenarios, it's going to be around twenty two percent, sometimes percent
or two lower, sometimes rarely higher. But for all intents as purposes,
we cat just round it to around twenty percent. I mean, you know,
basically basically got a one in five odds against your four to one.
Now when you have two pair, you may not think that it's that much
different. If you haven't done the math on it, you haven't done any
studying on it, you may not realize what an incredible difference there is between
these two spots. But if you have two pair, you're about nine percent
to fill up on the river, about nine percent. You're less than half.
It's less than half. So whereas you have one in about a one
in five opportunity to fill up on the river with a set so about odds
about four to one against you, we have about a one in ten chance
of filling up on the river with two pair, which is nine to one
against. I mean, that's a huge difference. It's an incredible difference.
So, uh, let's take one of the easiest scenarios to work through,
where it's all in on the turn right, Because this means there's no you
know, you don't have any math trying to figure out can you extract more
money if you hit on the river or whatever. We'll talk about that a
little bit later. We'll talk about the easiest, most simplest set of circumstances,
it's all in on the turn. If it's all in on the turn
and you have a set, you've got to be getting laid four to one.
In other words, there needs to be four times as much money in
the pot as it cost you to call. So if there's one hundred dollars
in the pot, you know it needs to be twenty You can't call any
more than twenty five. Once you start calling more than twenty five, then
you're losing money. Doesn't matter if you fill up or not, you still
lose money. You're like, wow, is that possible. It's because this
isn't the only time you're going to be in this spot. We're in the
spot one hundred times and we call it every time, and when we pay
more than twenty five dollars at the end of those hundred times, we will
be losing money. And that's how all of poker works. Poker is never
about this hand. It's about this hand played out thousands of times across the
year or across our lifetime. So if it's an all impot and the pot
doesn't laying you four to one with your set, then you just really need
to be folding now. If it's close. You know, it's twenty six
dollars instead of twenty five, it's twenty seven dollars instead of twenty five,
twenty eight dollars instead of twenty five. I mean, that's close enough that
you can allow for error that maybe sometimes your opponent is doing a two pair,
or maybe they have top pair and a flush draw some rare percentage of
the time, even though you think you even though so, we've already hopefully
we've already done the mental work to where we know this is an opponent that
just doesn't do that hardly, if ever. But maybe maybe even though it
is an opponent who would do that hardly, if ever, maybe once in
a blue man they changed the way they play and they jam it with top
pair and a flush draw of some sort. So you can call a little
bit more than twenty five. Maybe it'll work out being all right in the
long term. But you definitely don't call half pot, right, You can't.
You can't call fifty. Can't be one hundred dollars a pot and you
have to call fifty. You're not getting nearly enough odds. There's no room
for error. It's just it's just a horrible spot to be in. Now,
that's what a set. It's much worse when you have two pair.
I mean you need to be getting you need to be getting nine to one.
You need to getting nine to one. What does that mean? That
means for you to even call a ten dollars bet, the pot would have
to be ninety. I mean, who's betting? Who's betting ten dollars into
an eighty dollars pot, right, because that's what they'd have to be doing.
It'd have to be an eighty dollars pot. They'd have to bet ten
dollars into it to make it ninety, and you'd have to call ten to
get your nine to one. I mean, you just never Let's just face
it, you're just never getting pot odds when we're versus this very specific opponent
that we are with almost the one hundred cent certainty, they just have the
flesh. We're just never getting the odds with a two pair. And so
this is the biggest mistake I see with those steaks players, because they equivalent
to two. They're like, oh, it's the same thing, Like they
don't think any more about one than the other. They put the money in
with the two pair just as fast as they do with the set without.
First of all, they never really consider pot odds at all. They're just
like, you know, I can't fold here. Ever, now, if
you think about it, if if there is any room for error, you're
even better off in that instance with the set as well, even bottom set
right, because they could have top two or something. But let's say you
have bottom two. I mean, what if sometimes your ponent's just jamming with
top two. What if they have the set. I mean, it's just
you have a two pair, even beyond the flush. It's just it's just
way bad. It's just a bad, bad situation to be getting into.
So the biggest mistake I see is payers just they just put the money in
with two pair because quote unquote, I can still get a full house.
I'm not drawing dead. Well, sometimes you're drawing so thin. It's nearly
the same thing as drawing dead. And poker is all about math, and
if the math don't add up in your favor, and I don't mean the
math of I got out, I mean the math of the pot laying you
the appropriate amount of odds for your call, then you will be losing money
on the call. Whether your full house comes or not. And you may
be thinking, well, if my full house comes, it doesn't cost them.
Yes, if you didn't get laid enough money to hit the full house,
then it cost you money over time, assuming you're going to continue to
make that same call every time you're in this spot, because the math will
work itself out and you will be a loser. So for this reason,
it's it's safe to say, like this is simplified advice, and I understand
it's oversimplified advice. But when you're versus an opponent like this, and keep
in mind we're still referencing the fact that it's this is a specific opponent we're
up against. You just fold, just always fold the two pair. You
don't think about it. You don't need to do the math. There's no
way that an opponent is ever betting small enough on his turn that you will
ever have odds to call. No opponent is ever betting one ninth pot on
the river or one eighth pot or whatever on the river. They just aren't.
They just never are betting that small. And so you can just fold
your two pair hands and that all that leads us to do is work through
the math. On sets. Now, on sets, it's really easy.
When it's all in, right, you just need to be getting four to
one ish, right, you need to be getting very close to four to
one. You're off couple percentages or whatever we'll roll with. That's an easy
decision, All ends of decisions easy. Where there's a little bit of nuance
is when it's not all in and there's money left behind, because there is
this thing called imply todds where you can make up some of the money you
aren't getting on the turn if you hit on the river and you know you
can get it out of them, right, you know you can make it
up on the river. So in a case like that, let's say you're
only getting three to one, right, So let's say they bet us the
pot is seventy five on the turn, and it costs you twenty five to
call. So you're only getting three to one, and you need to be
getting four to one, right. You really need to be getting four to
one. Well, as long as if when you hit you can make up
that other twenty five dollars on the river, they'll call at least the twenty
five dollars bet on the river when you hit, and you know they will,
and you know you're not going to get crazy and bet so much they
wan't call because you can't do that, can't bet so much they wan't call
because if they fold and it's didn't even though you get the fold on the
river and you got there, it's still not profitable because you did not get
the four to one. You have to get the four to one some way,
somehow. The math don't lie. Math is immutable. It doesn't bend
to your whims. So if you're only getting three to one on the turn
when you need four to one, you gotta ask yourself it when I hit,
can I make up the other one part on the river? And I
think, almost exclusively, almost always can. So in the case where the
pot is seventy five and it costs you twenty five to call, and you
hit on the river, so now the pot is going to be one hundred,
could you bet twenty five on the river and get called with somebody call
twenty five with a flush on the river, For sure they would. They
might even call half pot. But you know, once you push it past
half pot board pairs, they start considering folding, So you never want to
bet so much they fold and you could just go right on down the line,
right, if you're getting two to one, you're getting two to one.
Can you make up the other two on the river? That's another question
for you. If it's if it's one hundred dollars pot, it's costing you
fifty, right, so you're getting you're getting two to one, can you
make up fifty on the river? It's a good question. There's a questions
you have to ask yourself. So with a two payer hand, you don't
really have these options. It's it's just much more dire. You're just like
never going to make up the other eight eight nights of the pot on the
river. You just never r when it hits you should never going to be
able to make it up. So look, I would have this advice moving
forward for simplicity's sake. We can do some math and we can think about
sets, right, and we knew we do need to do that. We
need to stop. Is it all in? Is there money left behind?
Can I make up what's I'm not quite getting on the turn with a river?
Bet when I get there and understand the math, make sure the math
is there with sets for two pays, I just don't think there's even any
reason to do the math man, when you're in a spot against opponent that
you know they aren't betting this turn nless they have the flush, right,
they just aren't, Like I don't know one and a one hundred times.
Maybe they are one and one and seventy five times. It's like a super
rare occurrence. They might, but I mean we just know, you know,
like you never know one hundred percent, but like we're ninety eight percent,
like they're just it's just a flush. Then you just toss the two
pair and it's hard to do because you can still get there, and it's
you still want to feel like, oh maybe I'm still ahead some even though
you know you're not. I mean, when you're in that situation, toss
the two pairs and let's do the math on the sets. Thank you so
much for listen today's episode. Hope you enjoying the new format. I did
it just for you. I try to build people pleaser and the reason that
we are able to do this because all the many five people who have become
fans of the pod, like John Mackie, who not only decided to be
a fan of the pod, he decided to go ahead and pay up front
for a year. John, I appreciate that so much. Kevin Roberts became
a fan of the pod. He's paying for monthly. And then a Roger,
Roger Beach became a fan of the pod, and he went ahead and
paid for a year. So these guys are the guys that are getting another
three extra episodes every month. They get it over on the Patreon platform.
So we used to just have every Sunday an episode would come out on the
public facing podcast feed and you just get every and just I was overwhelmed with
messages and questions and hand histories, and I mean, I'm not gonna whine
about it. I'm not crying about it. I loved it for so long,
but it became so overwhelming. It was just unsustainable. It's unsustainable and
people. It's weird how people start to once something's free, they just think
they can exploit it to the end of the earth. They're like, oh,
we can just we just yes, it's fine. Not understanding there's a
real life human on the other side that's getting the two hundred, one hundred
seventy five messages every single week asking all these questions. Who is doing his
due diligence to try to reply to all those give all those people his time
for free, plus deal with his people who he has committed to on Patreon,
plus come up with ideas and concepts for the pop pod. Plus do
the outline of the pod, plus record the pod, plus edit the cop
pod, plus upload and schedule the pod. I mean it's full Chip just
comes a full time job at some point, and it's for free. And
people were like, well, I liked the better when it was free.
Well, I'm sure you did. I mean I of course, of course
we all liked the better when it was free. Of course we liked the
better when I didn't put ads in it. Of course we loved it better.
Then. It was better when when our lives weren't disturbed by the free
content. You know, of course we liked it better. But it's just
was unsustainable. So folks like this who becomes friend of the pods, we
all have them to think. Because I'm still doing four episodes a month.
It's up to you. Rather you just get the one episode or whether you
get the four, you get the one episode. You don't get any fluff
up front, no ads up front that I put in at talking about my
patreony of that, you don't get me reading. Thank you's up front and
you just get straight to the content, which is what you guys said.
You want straight to the content. Just give me the content, man,
and that's what you get. And you can thank fans of the pot for
that. These guys are the true MVPs. They're the heroes or a measly
five bucks. They are world changers and now I can't thank them enough.
Secondarily, I want to thank people who leave reviews. So this is a
two parter. I would say Claw Esque left the review that said this website
had changed him from somebody that just looks as his cards as chips and says
what do I do now and to somebody that looks around and knows what he
should be thinking about at every stage of the hand. That's a great review,
Claw ask thank you for that. I should also say that he also
followed that up with a private message, prefect message to me on the Facebook
messenger and he said, I just get gave you a review. I'm through
the second season. I just wanted to thank you. I've been playing the
same game for twenty five years and you have made my players so much better.
Thank you so much. So claw esque. I won't use your real
name since you used an acronym, but thank you so much. I really
appreciate that. And then we have a three star review, and just let
me say I, if you're going to be negative, at least thank you
for not making it a one star and being just horrible about it. You
know, thank you, thank you for at least still doing three stars this
game from Big Balls Lewis who used to enjoy the podcast when it was free
and no ads, and you know you just got it spoon fed for free
and my life wasn't being consumed by it like a full time job. But
somewhere along the way it morphten to ads for fans of the show and Patreon,
which is a euphemism for paying the host. Well, it's not a
euphemism for paying. It's it's paying. It's not an euphemism. It's paying,
not a euphemism. But Big Balls Louis, I will salute you because
it's a man. It does take a man, first of all, to
put their thoughts out in public like you did on the review. So I
thank you for the review. I thank you for the positive parts of the
review, and then I thank you because even though you're incensed by somebody that
basically is devoting hours and hours and hours of their personal life every week to
it and just going, hey, you appreciate it. Become a fan,
give me five dollars. Even though you're insensed by that, you feel like
it's out of line, you still did at least give three stars. And
I want to give the tip of the hat you for that because it means
a lot. And I hope you keep listening. I hope you enjoy the
new format. I hope it's uh brings back all the warm feelings of what
you remember when there never used to be a call out for fans of the
pod. And with that being said, let's talk about it. Lowlimitcash Games
dot Com is how you become a fan of the pod. And that's like,
hey, I love the four episodes and I'm willing to toss you five
bucks to get the other three. Now here's a little something that I don't
ever talk about, but when you do become a fan of the Pods,
you now get access on the Patreon platform, which means you can shoot me
messages on the Patreon platform. That means your questions go to the head of
the line, So I try to answer everybody. If you shoot me a
message on Facebook Messenger or Instagram Messenger or whatever, I do try to answer
every single one of those, and it's very time consuming. It's super time
consuming, and sometimes it may be a week before you hear from me,
so maybe two weeks. Sometimes it may be two hours. But I do
my best because I love interacting with folks that listen to the pod. I
love talking hand in histories, I love asking your strategy questions. I love
trying to help. I really do. It brings me great joy, even
though it's turned into essentially a full time job, which is not what I
wanted, and I'm fixing that. We fixed that. It doesn't feel like
a full time job anymore. I made the change now that I should have
made at the beginning of the year. But I was just trying to do
a compromise. It's really my fault for thinking I could do a compromise and
get away with it when I should have just done what I knew needed to
be done, just do a public facing episode one of them and then just
making the others behind a paywa wash. That's what I should have done,
and that's my fault, but I tried. I tried to do a compromise
way where we could still do free episodes every week and it not feel like
a full time job to me and me not feel like and I was being
taken advantage of, which and I don't mean anybody was doing that in a
predatory way. It just means I genuinely asked that you could send me messages
and I love hearing from me, and I did, but it just became
overwhelming. It's just so overwhelming. So when you become a fan of the
pod, you can now shoot me messages on the Patreon platform using their messaging
system, which means you go straight to the front of the line if you
have a question. Whereas we're before, when you're just send me messages on
Instagram and Facebook, I get to them as soon as I can. I
still do get to them, but it's just as soon as I can.
So that's first of all. On the second of all, if you want
full blown training, our full blown Patreon training package, which is twenty five
bucks, half the price of anybody else they're out there trying to train you
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Player. There's none of this stuff that only applies to fifty one hundred or
twenty five, fifty or five ten, And we do fun things over there,
great things over there. The discord communities are part of it. I've
seen you check that out. All of it's at Lowlimit Cash Games dot com,
Low Limit Cash Games dot Com. All the links and information stuff will
be down in the description and information section of this podcast. And genuinely from
all my heart, I mean, it doesn't matter how I say it and
how genuine I try to be about it, there's always somebody that'll send me
messages that sound like I'm whining or something. I mean, if that's how
it comes across, I so be it. But I'm not whining. It's
just facts are just facts. It's just where we were at with the pod.
The pod just got so popular, so overwhelmingly popular. I could not
keep up with it and devote that many hours of my life to it for
free every week. I just couldn't. So the options were it has to
go away, or I have to somehow justify them many hours of my time,
That's what it boiled down to. And so it's not whining. It's
just facts. And I appreciate all you for being here, whether you pay
or whether you don't, if you listen to the free episode once a month
now and all the backlog of four episodes that are all up for free,
or whether you become a fan of the pod, or rather you become a
patron, I appreciate you all. I appreciate this community experience. I love
getting messages from you, I love trying to answer your questions. I love
trying to help any way I can, and I will continue to do that
for as long as I can. So that being said, we'll wrap it
up here, we'll sign out, and we will see in the next episode.
Thanks so much,