Hello, and welcome to the Dynasty Due podcast. I am your host,
Corey Evans. Thank you for listening to this week's episode. It is titled
Sophomore Value Check with the NFL Draft. Upon us approaching about a week now
at a time and listening to this episode, we are about to have full
throttle content related to twenty twenty four rookies how it impacts veterans opportunities for year
one players. So I thought, let's take a step back, pivot to
another idea, discuss sophomores instead of rookies, because we're going to have a
ton of upcoming covers and content for the next few months. When we have
a rookie drafts trades player value name it. So I have actually ten sophomore
I want to do a value check, a thermometer on in the Dynasty landscape,
incorporating or discussing their current value, their outlook, as well as buy
sell what that would mean cost wise in twenty twenty four for draft capital would
rather go away from upcoming rookies and instead trade for sophomores. Before I get
to that, don't forget about my roster calls over on Google Meet thirty bucks,
thirty minutes, one hour fifty dollars. My schedule and availability is going
to ramp up with the NFL Draft upon us, so be sure to get
on my schedule if interested to lock in your spot up first. I have
Jordan Addison, who turned twenty two in January. He went seventy nine to
eleven and ten for thirteen hours per catch, one hundred and eight targets,
a sixty five percent catch rates, and was a PPR whys Hever twenty three
last season. Minnesota is currently in a quarterback limbo of sorts with Sam Donald
as the presumed starter, regardless if it's Donald or an impact rookie is drafted
this year as a long term solution or not. Addison did prove to be
quarterback independent after thrive in twenty twenty three with a combination of Joshua Dobbs,
Nick Mallins, and even Jaron Hall at the Kirk Cousins towards Achilles. The
contract situation of Justin Jefferson is worth monitoring for Addison's long term outlook. Even
so, not much is going to change for Jordan and is Wyre Shever two
value with Wyatre one upside In twenty twenty four if it's quarterback, if it's
Jefferson holding out looking for a new deal, the variables really don't impact addisonal
that much. A Chris Brought runner, very versatile line up, inside,
outside, good after the catch. In terms of value, I would say
super flex a mid first, so think Roma Dounzay, brock Bowers that territory.
I do prefer Addison over most prospects you can get in the late first
least, and rookie ADP so far in a one quarterback league, I'd say
his earliest one point oh two or one point oh three. So we'll assume
Marvin Harrison Junior is selected elite neighbors, and then it's a conversation of Addison
or someone like Adunzay even block Bowers. In that one quarterback format, Will
levis He's twenty five in June one thousand, eight ors and eight yards passing
fifty eight point four percent completion rate, seven point one yards past attempt eight
touchdowns to four interceptions, and twenty five rushes fifty seven yards in a score
as a quarterback thirty three and six point per passing touchdown formats, it was
an okay entrance to the NFL for Levis compared expectations. When we need to
realize is that Tennessee revamped its franchise across the board over the offseason, with
the head coach hiring of Brian Callahan from Cincinnati, the free agent editions of
Tony Pollard Calvin Ridley to coexist with an already solid offensive cour of DeAndre Hopkins,
Tajay Spears, and even Traylan Burks. Levis comes with plenty of question
marks after siding to the second round of last year's real life draft out of
Kentucky, where he could have been a first rounder. Pre draft, the
assumption was that he was in that range. There was even some balls of
speculation this time last year that Levis could have been the first overall pick.
Obviously, hindsight being twenty twenty, a lot of that was just pure clickbait
or conjecture that was way off base. Nonetheless, will Levis is indeed a
breakout candidates based on a supporting cast alone in Tennessee antonio sophomore campaign. In
terms of value right now, I'd say super flex, mid to late first.
So Levis compared to you twenty twenty four quarterback prospects think JJ McCarthy,
Michael Pennick, Junior bo Nicks. We'll see out draft capitol aaning spot are
for them. In one quarterback value, I'd say a late second, early
third for Levis if you need a quarterback one. If Levis is your quarterback
two, then you should not spend more than a third or fourth if you
have a locked and loaded top ten to twelve option as the anchor of your
one quarterback league. Dontevion Wicks is twenty three in June thirty nine, five
eighty one and four for fourteen point nine yards per catch fifty eight targets,
good for a sixty seven percent catch rate us the PPR wives You're fifty eight.
As a rookie, exceeded most, if not all, expectations, and
has already managed to exceed what most people thought he was a prospect as a
fifth round out of Virginia last year. It's not out of the realm of
possibilities that Wicks is the most valuable wideout to roster in Green Bay and Fantasy.
With this context in mind, that based on pure cost compared to the
more expensive price tags of Christian Watson or Jayane Reed, Wicks could offer a
similar floor. The ceiling might not be as high, but week to week
it sounds like Green be able to spread the football around with Jordan Love to
all of its weapons, not necessarily funnel or focus on one or two names.
Wicks brings size of the feel that six' one two oh six,
a fluid route runner, notable athletic ability, doesn't have the best straight line
speed, but had a thirty nine in vertical on a ten foot ten in
broad jump. There's been some outlandish takes that I've seen on Twitter this offseason
where Wicks is the second coming of the Monte Adams for the sake of a
Packers wide receiver becoming a superstar. I think it's a bit far fetched,
but I do believe in terms of a value check in super flex, Wicks
on the late second early third border line makes a lot of sense, or
in a one quarterback league, a mid to eight second. If someone is
willing to buy him at an ultra premium for a late first or early second,
I would cash out just because the target share seems a bit unpredictable beat
to week in Green Bay, but being tied to an ascending talent and Jordan
Love makes Wicks an exciting sophomore talent Josh Down. He's twenty three in August
a sixty eight seven to seventy one two log for eleven point three yards per
catch on ninety eight targets last season a sixty nine percent catch rate. He
was a PPR wide out forty three. He endured a roller coaster rookie season
due to lingering injuries. There were peaks of PPR stardom couple with a borderline
irrelevant floor. With Anthony Richardson returning in twenty twenty four, Michael Pittman back
as well to draw top defensive coverage or attention away, It's fair to assumer
speculate that Downs should thrive out of the slot as a passing option or outlets
for the Colts, especially with ar and Downs on the same page early on
in that small sample size we had in twenty twenty three. Now, despite
the smaller body frame at five to nine a bucks seventy one, Downs proved
that his third round draft capital from North Carolina was indeed warranted as a security
blanket of sorts underneath, think Jarvis Landry is primed with the Dolphins. That's
how I envision or would intend to utilize Josh downs in a PPR lineup,
so a solid wide out three with wide receiver two upside. If he's gore
a touchdown each and every week in super flex, that puts him in the
second round. Conversation one quarterback a late first at most, but more realistically
a second, just like it lines up in super Flex. This is a
loaded twenty twenty four rooky whiteout class, so there's plenty of names you could
take instead in the second round of Yerky drafts. But I will say that
Josh downs, based on the ceiling we saw in twenty twenty three, is
exciting to roster. With Ar being back and hopefully better than ever, he
just has to remain healthy. Ar has to realize that you cannot take a
lot of hits as a mobile quarterback in the NFL's is not college. Up
next is Trey Palmer. He turned twenty three earlier on this month, thirty
nine three eighty five and three touchdowns for nine point nine yards per catch,
sixty eight targets. I'd like to see the yards per catch increase. In
twenty twenty four, it was a fifty seven percent catch rates. The PPR
wide receiver seventy two. With Baker Mayfield returning Tampa Bay, Palmer is suddenly
back on the sleeper radar in dynasty formats after a solid year one as a
professional. He's more Chris Godwin than Mike Evans in terms of skill set and
build. Keep in mind Palmer is six feet one ninety two. He should
be the odd end favorites open up as the Buccaneers wide receiver three. Unless
a Day one or Day two draft pick is allocated to set position in this
year's draft. We'll assume that's not the case. Palmer had glimpses of legitimate
fantasy relevancy and big play ability last season. Superflex or one quarterback a third
round pick seems fair to me, and if you're banking on Chris Godwin continuing
his downward trend in stock, then Palmer could be an eventual replacement to Godwin.
With Evans under that new contract. It is time for a quick break.
I'll be back with five more sophomores to check in on their value before
we do that quick reminder by my content over on Patreon, you can get
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Time for that quick break and I will be right back. Michael Mayer
is next in the agenda twenty three and July twenty seven, three h four
and two touchdowns for eleven point three yards per catch, forty targets a sixty
eight percent catch rates PPR. Tight In thirty five, Mayor showed glimpses of
stardom as a rookie, but ultimately did not receive enough usage to produce at
a top tier level like his peers, Sam Laporter, Dalton Kaid. Those
are far better situations. Laporta tied to Goff and the creativity of Ben Johnson
offensively Dalton Cad a glorified wide receiver for the sake of the Bills offense,
even vastly improved now in those Stefan Diggs or Gabe Davis in the fold.
Michael Mayer has a lot more of a hill to climb to become a locked
in tight end one, but the production and development are are work in progress.
It's not a linear for la Porta, Kincaid may or any other tight
end for that matter. So it is far too early to write off Michael
Mayer because he should remain penciled in as a tight end one for the Raiders
with Gardner Mitchew at quarterback or even a rookie in twenty twenty four. In
terms of pure value super flex or one quarterback leagues a second is right on
the dot, and outside of Brock Bauers, I would take Michael Mayer over
any other twenty twenty four keet tight end. Sure Theo Johnson, Ben Sinnett,
jaheem Bell, Jajavion Sanders are in that value range, but we know
the role that mayor is supposed to have for the Raiders and the end of
the year, and I are don't forget that, So he lost a bit
of his late season luster. A great Bilo, one of my favorite young
tight ends to rosters a tight end two and hopefully he can become a long
term tight end one in Dynasty formats Jalen Hyatt twenty three in September, he
met twenty three for three seventy three no touchdowns in impress sixteen point two yards
per catch on forty targets. That's a fifty eight percent catch rates PPR wide
out ninety eight, so not all that viable. The lack of output,
though as a rookie, can be credited to limited involvement as a whole.
His role might not change, unfortunately, all that much in year two as
a sophomore, which makes him difficult to evaluate in dynasty leagues because his stock
is primarily tied to what the Giants plan to do a quarterback. Is it
Daniel Jones, is it Drew Locke, Tomy DeVito a rookie with a top
ten pick, they are in a spot to select a Panics junior or Bo
Nix if not trade up, assuming kill Williams is taking at one point oh
one, and there's also Jayden Daniels, Drake May and even JJ McCarthy.
His hype is really out of control at this point in terms of teams being
all in. Therefore, it leads a Giants in somewhat of an unknown situation.
If Daniel Jones is healthy, you'd think, based on the lucrative contract
given to him only a short time ago, that he'd be the assumed starter,
but it sounds like that is unknown based on his recovery from the knee
injury. So Jalen Hyatt is a vital investment. As you recall last year
around this time, I was a big fan of Hyatt and his outlook out
of Tennessee in terms of having the size, speed combination to be a lidlifter
with huge game changing and ability. Fortunately, if you're sold on his talent,
which I am still not ready to give up on him, his price
has decreased. Rookie to sophomore year, his ADP was late second, early
third for the most part. Right now you can get him for a mid
to eight third, a fourth even potentially, because there's just nobody that is
bought in or confident and what the Giants are doing with their huge receiver core
of middling talent. So swooping by loo on Jalen Hyatt, let's hope the
quarterback situation improves and the Giants can bounce back in some way, shape or
form. In twenty twenty four, Xavier Gibson is a sleeper on the Jets,
of course, if you're not familiar with his name. Twenty three years
old, twenty one catches two twenty nine no touchdowns on thirty eight targets for
fifty five percent catch rates. He was a PPR wide receiver one to Zho
three. The Jets are reportedly convinced that Gibson is a potential starting slot receiver
for them, and even can contribute regularly on punt and kickoff returns. If
true, you have then Garrett Wilson Mike Williams operating on the outside. Means
that Gibson could find plenty of up in space in the middle of the field
for Aaron Rodgers a Pepperham of targets in a Randall Cobb esque role. Out
of all the names to discuss so far as software value checks, Gibson is
low risk, high reward former UDFA, so not much pedigree to bank all
that much into and should cost you no more than a fourth or fifth if
not a free agent your dynasty league right now, don't overvalue him expecting a
massive leap in you to But then again, if Aaron Rodgers is healthy,
this Jets offense is going to look entirely different. And sure there's not a
ton of volume up for grabs at Breese Hall locked into a perennial elite role
as I mentioned Garrett Wilson, Mike Williams with Al Lazard reportedly omni roster bubble
gives Exavier gibson sneaky dynasty value where people could be dismissing the potential for a
solid role. Ken Dre Miller twenty two in June forty one, one fifty
six and one touchdown for three points. As per Carrey ten grabs a buck
seventeen eleven targets PPRRB seventy one only in eight games played, though, just
struggle with some injuries, which is the same issue ad a TCU. Ken
dra has youth on his side. He's only going to be twenty two this
summer, so that puts him right on par, if not younger than most.
Twenty twenty four here running backs that is deemed a week class and that
also means that Alvin Kamera of twenty nine July and Jami Williams Ready twenty nine
are depreciating assets in Dynasty, but also the Saints in real life. When
you have Miller's whole career ahead of him, Ken Dray must improves their ability
become fantasy relevant. That is crucial in his value assessments. There's plenty to
like on his resume at of TCUs a third round selection last year, three
down skill set baked in and an ideal bill for running back six feet two
twenty nice blend of power, speed, vision, acceleration and burst and quite
honestly would probably slot in as RB three or four in this year's crop after
John the Books, Trey Benson and then up for debate if you have you
in the Wright Blake Cooram Marshaun Lloyd Brailan Allen that mix. But Miller's talent
is undeniable. It's a matter of staying healthy. In terms of value super
fus or one quarterback leagues, I would say a mid to eight second and
a best case scenario buy or sell, and then early third would be considered
somewhat of a buy low because you know the role should only grow and we
cannot assume fat Jamal Williams remains with the team this season in a full capacity.
Alvin Kamara is locked in if healthy, his skill set has declined.
Kendrey Miller is certainly in the cards with the heir apparent or the future at
running back for this team unless a Day two pick is spent on running back,
which you never know in the NFL because the running back position is an
ever evolving rotation due to the short shelf life. And then last been out.
Least number ten is Tank Bigsby twenty three in August fifty tots about thirty
two and two scores only two point six yard for clip talk about dreadful efficiency
one catch six yards on four targets. The RB eighty seven disappointing to say
the least Tank was a very popular draft pick in Dynasty League last year.
I saw late first, early mid second. That price has since plummeted after
that inefficient rookie season to at most a late second more realistically, and early
to mid third in value at their SHRAFSDTN dominated the backfield share last season.
Now head coach Doug Peterson has been vocal this offseason about increasing Bigsby's rolling twenty
twenty four in an effort to preserve and scale back etn's overall volume. Whether
or not that actually is true comes fruition Rainsby seen if you were in on
Bigsby and the film he put out at Auburn last year. This is the
time to bothered it because there's a lot of hyperbole that it could be an
RBBC in Jacksonville. Moving forward, it's still, though, a matter of
executing on more opportunities as a sophomore, and Bigsby has to prove it.
It's not going to be given to him. That's a position that will be
earned. We've seen a lot of rotational pieces like Terence Johnson Regol Hasty along
to a ETN in the past, but we do know that Peterson wants to
at least light in the worklow for free TN to keep him healthy. And
I think tank Bigsby borrowing more fumbles or poor pass protection lapses will improve in
year two. And if you want to buy in for the third on price
tag, you can do a lot worse. There's so many dart throws each
and every year at this point because there is some mental fatigue with Tank Biggsby
and already being deemed somewhat of a sunk cost. Offer up a twenty five
third. Someone might take that just to get out exit in hopes that he's
not a bust that will do it. Hope you enjoyed my sophomore value check
in all ten names that I described in detail to recap. Those were Jordan
Addison, Will Levis, Don Tevion Wicks, Josh Downs, Trey Palmer,
Michael Mayer, Jalen Hyatt, Xavier Gibson, Kendre Miller, and Tank biggs
b Thank you for listening. If you found any information or stats useful this
week, please take a few moments of your time drop a five star review
on Apple podcast or Spotify to help me and my podcast grow. Until next
time, this is the Dynasty you're checking out. I'll be back next week
my first round breakdown from me twenty twenty four NFL Draft. See you nine