WEBVTT

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No inside the numbers with Ryan Michael. We will bring our guy, Ryan

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Michael. I'm the k wait Commas
Sparrel hotline. Ryan. How you doing

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the season doing well? Nick?
How are you guys doing pretty well?

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We had Drake Nujanaj just a minute
ago. You had some numbers up for

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him earlier on Twitter. If you
guys want to go to the Ryan Michael

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and you can check that out.
Of course. Mike Ryan is a contributing

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writer and analyst for the Pro Football
Hall of Fame and our officially unofficial official

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statistician here on BCT. Last we
had spoken, we were going to talk

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about the biggest single season turnarounds in
the NFL in the modern era. You've

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got to do the homework on us, tell us how we could turn this

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thing around, how other teams have
turned this thing around. And I'm just

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going to pitch it right to you. What did you discover? Sure?

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So what I did is I took
a dive into the last ten years,

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so twenty fourteen to twenty twenty three, and I tallied up the teams that

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had the greatest single season turnarounds in
terms of number of wins. So there

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was a tie for place in that
regard, the twenty fifteen Cowboys to twenty

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sixteen Cowboys increase their win total by
nine and the same with the twenty eighteen

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to twenty nineteen San Francisco forty nine
ers. So what we're looking for is

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common ground between the teams that were
able to turn things around. And what

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you'll see is a common theme is
a combination of any of the following strong

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draft classes, an elite or at
least very good play at the quarterback position,

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big turnarounds defensively in terms of points
per game surrendered, and that really

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takes pressure off the offense, which
in turn allows the offenses score more points.

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So that seems to be a common
team between all of the teams that

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I charted. You know, looking
at these numbers, you know there's something

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else that you put in here that
every single year, I think it's always

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the key because when we get to
the part of the year where teams are

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fighting for a playoff, birth or
the Super Bowl, we always think sometimes

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that's the best team that won the
super Bowl. But for me, it

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is the healthiest team that wins the
Super Bowl. So why was it that

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you put in their health and efficiency
at the quarterback position. Sure, So

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consistency at quarterback is key. So
in the case of the twenty nineteen forty

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nine Ers, Jimmy Garoppolo started three
games the previous year, and he returned

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and started all sixteen games. He
finished top ten and adjusted net yards per

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at tenth. And you know that
in addition to a strong draft class,

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right, you got Nick Bosa second
overall, you took Deebo Samuel in the

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second round, So big hits in
the first two picks of that draft.

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In lining that up with efficiency at
the quarterback position, which also comes from

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healthy play, the forty nine ers
were able to turn it around big and

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win an NFC championship. Well,
you mentioned those niners, and look at

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these numbers. The twenty fifteen to
twenty sixteen Cowboys twenty eighteen twenty nineteen forty

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nine Ers both increased their totals by
nine wins. How did how did those

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those teams turn it around nine wins? Well if you look at where they

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were both off offensively and defensively.
So I'll start with the Cowboys, who

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were an absolute mess in twenty fifteen, had no stability at the quarterback position.

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They finished thirty first in points scored. So after they drafted Dak Prescott,

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they went from thirty first to fifth
and even more impressive in my eyes,

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I'm going to cite adjust the net
yards per attempt. I feel like

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I bring it up almost every week. It's an all encompassing statistic that accounts

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for yards per passing attempt, touchdown
passes, interceptions, and sacks. So

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collectively, as a team, Dallas
ranked thirty second in twenty fifteen, dead

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last, and then they draft Dak
Prescott and he finishes third in adjust the

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net yards per attempt, So that
went a long way in addition to what

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Ezekiel Elliott was able to do on
the ground to be able to turn that

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team around. And then even from
a defensive standpoint, they were roughly averaged

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sixteenth in points per game surrendered in
twenty fifteen, but then they finished top

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five in twenty sixteen. So if
you're able to make improvements on both sides

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of the ball, it's no surprise
to see that they went from four to

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twelve to thirteen. So when we
look at the biggest turnar rounds and why

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teams have done it, it's interesting
that you have the twenty nineteen San Francisco

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forty nine ers because I was on
that coaching staff the year before all of

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these changes came about. But let's
flip that and let's talk about the coaching

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aspect of it. How does the
coaching actually aid in or should aid rather,

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I should say in the turnaround of
any given team, Well, I

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would say leadership trickles from the top
all the way down. So whether it

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comes in the form of leadership and
play calling such as Sean McVay, he's

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probably the one that stands out to
me more than anybody else because what he

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was able to do for the Rams, who were coming off the season where

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they ranked dead last thirty second points
per game scored. In their first year

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with Seawan McVay, they ranked number
one. They took Jared Goff number one

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overall in twenty sixteen and he finished
dead last and adjusted net yards per attempt

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by a considerable margin first year under
Sean McVay number one. And it certainly

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didn't hurt to have Todd Gurley putting
up two thy ninety three total yards from

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scrimmage nineteen total touchdowns. So the
play calling aspect of what Sean McVay brought

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to Los Angeles. It's impossible for
me to overstate the impact. But it's

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also a cultural thing. You know, it doesn't matter to me necessarily whether

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you have an offensive or defensive background, But are you bringing stability? Are

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you holding the players accountable? And
are you able to step into a situation

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where there might not be a great
culture of winning. That certainly has been

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the case with Kevin Stefanski, and
he's already been named a two times Associated

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Press Head Coach of the Year.
So to be able to win in Cleveland

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is no easy feat. So it's
a cultural thing, and it's also what

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you're bringing to the table from a
schematics standpoint. Well, on that note,

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what does the data tell us what
the biggest impact or is as far

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as turning it around? Is it
is it bringing in a new head coach?

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Is it having you know, a
good draft class? Is it getting

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a quarterback? Because I look at
these things and I say, well,

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you mentioned Stefanski and they had what
four or five quarterbacks? Was it likelast

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year with the Browns they kept winning. You go back and you look at

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San Francisco, It's turned in and
around. It wasn't really the quarterback that

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was doing it there, although Jimmy
Garoppolo did bring some stability when they brought

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the veteran in, but none of
the drafted guys really did. What is

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what does the data tell us?
You know, really, if you could

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pick one singular thing, and there
really is no singular thing, but doing

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well in the draft, which is
the appropriate time to be discussing such things,

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gives a team an advantage in a
way that free agency doesn't, because

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even if you're successful in terms of
signing free agents, in most cases,

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it's going to come at a cost. You want good players, you're going

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to have to pay them appropriately.
But when you're getting players in the draft

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and you're drafting well, especially if
you can get players who are making an

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immediate impact the way that Dak Prescott
and Vipal Elliott did in Dallas, the

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way Nick Mosa Dee La Samuel did
in San Francisco, the way CJ.

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Stroud and ll Anderson did last year
for Houston, you're getting quality performance on

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the field at a discount. That
would be the number one thing that the

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data suggests in terms of what you
should focus on if you're looking to have

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not just a long term turnaround,
but one in the case of the Denver

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Broncos, where we're playing at a
deficit when it comes to the salary cap.

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Doing well in this year's draft is
going to come at a premium because

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it's really the only way for us
to be able to assemble a competitive roster.

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Well, we've seen teams a year
after year, you know, go

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from worse the first or teams that
there's usually five that missed the playoffs the

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year before and finding themselves getting into
the playoffs in the current season. Now,

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looking at the Broncos, and it's
interesting that you brought up, you

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know, the salary cap and whether
the Broncos are How long can members of

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Broncos Country expect this team to kind
of be where they are now until we

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start talking about a massive turnaround?
Well, what are we looking at?

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Is this a two three year type
of situation? You know, it's really

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just conjecture, And I would say
it would be reasonable, if everything ends

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up working out the way that we
hope it does through the draft and through

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cap management, to start to see
more of a turnaround sometime next year or

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the year after. It's possible,
as the nineteen ninety nine Saint Louis Rams

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proved to be able to turn it
around in one year. I mean they

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went from a losing franchise to Super
Bowl champions. That's the extreme end of

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the spectrum. That's not something that
I would bank on. But if you're

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looking at Denver situation, it's not
just what the Broncos are going to be

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able to do in the draft.
It's not just a matter of figuring out

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the quarterback position, whether it's trading
up for a JJ McCarthy, whether it's

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drafting a bon Nicks, or whether
it's riding it out with Jared Sidham.

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We also have to rely on other
teams taking a step back, and when

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you're in a division with Kansas City, that's anything but a guarantee. I

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did say at the end of twenty
twenty two that we were going to see

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a step back from the Kansas City
Chiefs, either in terms of win loss

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or in terms of performance at the
quarterback position. And statistically, Patrick Mahomes

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had the worst year of his career, finishing towards the middle of the league

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in most efficiency metrics. They offset
that by having a top two scoring defense.

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So the team won anyway because Patrick
Mahomes delivered when it met the most

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Conceivably, if Kansas City were to
take a big step back, if Los

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Angeles is not able to rebuild the
way that they're hoping to rebuild with hardball,

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is it possible the Denver could be
competitive this year. It's possible.

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Realistically, I think we're looking at
twenty twenty five, twenty six pivoting topics.

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Here just a little bit. You
you know, you put out the

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numbers on the on the guy we
interviewed right before you came on the show,

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Drake NuGen, and you go to
at the Ryan Michael on Twitter,

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you can see a JJ McCarthy had
a spike in production. As soon as

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they got Drake NuGen in there to
play, center's completion percentage went up nearly

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ten points, the yards per attempt
went up. You know, from twenty

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fourth to twelfth of college football,
his quarterback reading from one fifty five to

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one to sixty seven point four.
It was good for night. Is that

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all on Drake? Was there a
different in play calling or did he legitimately

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make that much of a difference.
There's no question that he made a tremendous

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impact. And as you stated earlier
in the show, the numbers. As

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Pro Football Focus has emphasized, speak
for themselves. He does not allow pressure

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to get to the quarterback. He
does not allow the quarterback to end up

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on his back. So it's a
partial credit to him along with the entire

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offensive line. It's something that Denver
really needs to keep in mind because historically,

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speaking at the quarterback position, you
can't run away from solid pass protection.

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There are a small group of quarterbacks
who can get away with it with

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a quick release. Dan Marino did
that for a lot of years. Peyton

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Manning did that for a lot of
years. It's not something that you can

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bake on. So whether it's a
rookie quarterback stepping into year one, whether

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it's a veteran journeyman like Jared Sidham, there's no running away from the importance

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of pass protection. It's something that
Broncos should definitely look into well the Broncos

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looking to twenty twenty five and twenty
twenty six. By your assessment of where

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this team should look to make his
turnaround, what would be safe to say

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using this particular draft, And as
though Ban and I talked about, I

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know everyone wants a team to move
up to go get their quarterback, but

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would be fair to say to just
move back and just kind of build your

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team, but more importantly build an
add depth and competition at that offensive line

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position to make sure that you are
capable of making somewhat of a competitive run

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in twenty twenty five into twenty twenty
six. I have said this before and

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I'll say it again. If it
is even possible for them to the trade

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up for one of the Big Four
quarterbacks, I think they would be making

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a grave mistake. And that's not
so much an indictment on the quarterbacks and

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the Big Four so much as it
is the reality. The history speaks for

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itself. As I said last week, even if JJ McCarthy, for conversation's

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sake, is as good as advertised, if he's stepping into a situation with

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weak pass protection, he's not going
to go very far. And if we're

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able to take bow knicks, whether
it be at number twelve, which I

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think is too early to take him, it might be more reasonable to try

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to trade back and get him at
the end of the first round beginning of

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the second round. But he's another
young quarterback where if he's stepping into a

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situation with poor task protection, history
doesn't say that he's likely to find success.

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And if you look at most quarterback
outside of the number one overall selection,

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in almost all cases, for the
percentage of quarterbacks who ended up going

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on to have successful seasons that led
to successful careers, they stepped into successful

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situations with strong team support. So
Denver thinks that they're going to mortgage their

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future to get the big name quarterback. It'll sell a lot of jerseys.

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But if you're going to be putting
him behind a shaky offensive lineman defense that

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gives up a lot of points,
there's no reasonable expectation for that quarterback to

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be successful. And that I think
is my concern. It's not that I

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don't want one of these big four. I don't want to give up the

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assets to do it and then be
unable to build around that guy. I

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don't want to set one of these
guys up for failure. And I think

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that's that's sort of been the lens
which with I. I've been on this.

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People on social media, you know, you know how they are.

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They come up with every day,
they come up with every line in the

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book, and they'll say, well, Ben does what the Broncos be successful

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that's not true. Roder the cover
of Winner Dude. But at the end

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of the day, I think giving
up the assets to get a young guy

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and then not surrounding him or being
able to maximize you because you've lost the

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draft capital. To me, that's
a loser plan. And maybe am I

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wrong on this? Or is am
I just seeing this? Am I seeing

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this thing correctly? Or is the
data conclusive here? Now I'm in agreement

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with you, and I would say, outside of Andrew Luck off the top

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of your head, how many quarterbacks
can you think of, whether they be

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first, second, third round quarterbacks, but young quarterbacks who stepped into situations

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who found success without strong team situations. Andrew Lucky is the only name that

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comes to mind. You can make
an argument for Trevor Lawrence, who went

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from twenty eighth and adjustin nt yards
forer attempt as a rookie in an awful

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situation, and then he finished eighth
in twenty twenty two with a Jaguars team

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that I don't think collectively was nearly
as talented as he was. But then

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again, we're talking about two number
one overall draft picks who are all time

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great prospect, So I agree with
you completely, Ben, whoever it is

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that we're taking, whether the idea
is to trade up or to trade back,

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or to go sit them, history
doesn't say that that quarterback is going

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to find success if we're not able
to surround him with success. With that

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being said, i don't know if
you've taken a deep dive into these numbers

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just yet, but I've been just
thinking about this. Some of these coaches

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and organizations who move up to get
these quarterbacks and the quarterbacks flame out.

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I'm just interested to see, well, what's the number on those coaches and

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how long they remain in the league
because I'm looking at this situation the Broncos

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currently find themselves in and if the
ideas to move up for a quarterback and

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give up assets, this is something
you have to get right. This is

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not something where you have very little
room I'll put it this way for a

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mistake. So what do you think
the numbers are for those coaches who've kind

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of survived making mistakes at the quarterback
position. It's a short list, and

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traditionally speaking, when you have head
coaches who are able to take especially a

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high draft pick. So if you
think of Doug Peterson with Trevor Lawrence before

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he ended up getting hurt towards the
end of last year. Think of Sean

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McVay with Jared Bobb. If there
is a head coach who was able to

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maximize the potential of that young quarterback, they're going to have an opportunity to

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have a good run at rebuilding that
team. But if you draft a quarterback

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high and it doesn't end up panning
out, whether it be partially on the

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head coach or not, he's going
to carry a good amount of responsibility for

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that disappointment at the position and they're
not going to last long. So whether

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it Sean Payton or anybody else,
it's definitely something to keep in mind because

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organizations don't tend to keep head coaches
around who aren't able to maximize the potential

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of the quarterbacks they take high in
the draft. Ryan, we always appreciate

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you time. Looking forward to giving
get a chat with you next week,

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and I think you're going to bring
us some some interesting nuggets on some of

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these guys that the Broncos has signed
this off season, things we didn't know.

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Yes, sir, I'm already on
it, absolutely looking forward to it,

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man, and have a good Week, It's a Ryan Michael. V

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Ryan Michael on Twitter