No inside the numbers with Ryan Michael. We will bring our guy, Ryan
Michael. I'm the k wait Commas Sparrel hotline. Ryan. How you doing
the season doing well? Nick? How are you guys doing pretty well?
We had Drake Nujanaj just a minute ago. You had some numbers up for
him earlier on Twitter. If you guys want to go to the Ryan Michael
and you can check that out. Of course. Mike Ryan is a contributing
writer and analyst for the Pro Football Hall of Fame and our officially unofficial official
statistician here on BCT. Last we had spoken, we were going to talk
about the biggest single season turnarounds in the NFL in the modern era. You've
got to do the homework on us, tell us how we could turn this
thing around, how other teams have turned this thing around. And I'm just
going to pitch it right to you. What did you discover? Sure?
So what I did is I took a dive into the last ten years,
so twenty fourteen to twenty twenty three, and I tallied up the teams that
had the greatest single season turnarounds in terms of number of wins. So there
was a tie for place in that regard, the twenty fifteen Cowboys to twenty
sixteen Cowboys increase their win total by nine and the same with the twenty eighteen
to twenty nineteen San Francisco forty nine ers. So what we're looking for is
common ground between the teams that were able to turn things around. And what
you'll see is a common theme is a combination of any of the following strong
draft classes, an elite or at least very good play at the quarterback position,
big turnarounds defensively in terms of points per game surrendered, and that really
takes pressure off the offense, which in turn allows the offenses score more points.
So that seems to be a common team between all of the teams that
I charted. You know, looking at these numbers, you know there's something
else that you put in here that every single year, I think it's always
the key because when we get to the part of the year where teams are
fighting for a playoff, birth or the Super Bowl, we always think sometimes
that's the best team that won the super Bowl. But for me, it
is the healthiest team that wins the Super Bowl. So why was it that
you put in their health and efficiency at the quarterback position. Sure, So
consistency at quarterback is key. So in the case of the twenty nineteen forty
nine Ers, Jimmy Garoppolo started three games the previous year, and he returned
and started all sixteen games. He finished top ten and adjusted net yards per
at tenth. And you know that in addition to a strong draft class,
right, you got Nick Bosa second overall, you took Deebo Samuel in the
second round, So big hits in the first two picks of that draft.
In lining that up with efficiency at the quarterback position, which also comes from
healthy play, the forty nine ers were able to turn it around big and
win an NFC championship. Well, you mentioned those niners, and look at
these numbers. The twenty fifteen to twenty sixteen Cowboys twenty eighteen twenty nineteen forty
nine Ers both increased their totals by nine wins. How did how did those
those teams turn it around nine wins? Well if you look at where they
were both off offensively and defensively. So I'll start with the Cowboys, who
were an absolute mess in twenty fifteen, had no stability at the quarterback position.
They finished thirty first in points scored. So after they drafted Dak Prescott,
they went from thirty first to fifth and even more impressive in my eyes,
I'm going to cite adjust the net yards per attempt. I feel like
I bring it up almost every week. It's an all encompassing statistic that accounts
for yards per passing attempt, touchdown passes, interceptions, and sacks. So
collectively, as a team, Dallas ranked thirty second in twenty fifteen, dead
last, and then they draft Dak Prescott and he finishes third in adjust the
net yards per attempt, So that went a long way in addition to what
Ezekiel Elliott was able to do on the ground to be able to turn that
team around. And then even from a defensive standpoint, they were roughly averaged
sixteenth in points per game surrendered in twenty fifteen, but then they finished top
five in twenty sixteen. So if you're able to make improvements on both sides
of the ball, it's no surprise to see that they went from four to
twelve to thirteen. So when we look at the biggest turnar rounds and why
teams have done it, it's interesting that you have the twenty nineteen San Francisco
forty nine ers because I was on that coaching staff the year before all of
these changes came about. But let's flip that and let's talk about the coaching
aspect of it. How does the coaching actually aid in or should aid rather,
I should say in the turnaround of any given team, Well, I
would say leadership trickles from the top all the way down. So whether it
comes in the form of leadership and play calling such as Sean McVay, he's
probably the one that stands out to me more than anybody else because what he
was able to do for the Rams, who were coming off the season where
they ranked dead last thirty second points per game scored. In their first year
with Seawan McVay, they ranked number one. They took Jared Goff number one
overall in twenty sixteen and he finished dead last and adjusted net yards per attempt
by a considerable margin first year under Sean McVay number one. And it certainly
didn't hurt to have Todd Gurley putting up two thy ninety three total yards from
scrimmage nineteen total touchdowns. So the play calling aspect of what Sean McVay brought
to Los Angeles. It's impossible for me to overstate the impact. But it's
also a cultural thing. You know, it doesn't matter to me necessarily whether
you have an offensive or defensive background, But are you bringing stability? Are
you holding the players accountable? And are you able to step into a situation
where there might not be a great culture of winning. That certainly has been
the case with Kevin Stefanski, and he's already been named a two times Associated
Press Head Coach of the Year. So to be able to win in Cleveland
is no easy feat. So it's a cultural thing, and it's also what
you're bringing to the table from a schematics standpoint. Well, on that note,
what does the data tell us what the biggest impact or is as far
as turning it around? Is it is it bringing in a new head coach?
Is it having you know, a good draft class? Is it getting
a quarterback? Because I look at these things and I say, well,
you mentioned Stefanski and they had what four or five quarterbacks? Was it likelast
year with the Browns they kept winning. You go back and you look at
San Francisco, It's turned in and around. It wasn't really the quarterback that
was doing it there, although Jimmy Garoppolo did bring some stability when they brought
the veteran in, but none of the drafted guys really did. What is
what does the data tell us? You know, really, if you could
pick one singular thing, and there really is no singular thing, but doing
well in the draft, which is the appropriate time to be discussing such things,
gives a team an advantage in a way that free agency doesn't, because
even if you're successful in terms of signing free agents, in most cases,
it's going to come at a cost. You want good players, you're going
to have to pay them appropriately. But when you're getting players in the draft
and you're drafting well, especially if you can get players who are making an
immediate impact the way that Dak Prescott and Vipal Elliott did in Dallas, the
way Nick Mosa Dee La Samuel did in San Francisco, the way CJ.
Stroud and ll Anderson did last year for Houston, you're getting quality performance on
the field at a discount. That would be the number one thing that the
data suggests in terms of what you should focus on if you're looking to have
not just a long term turnaround, but one in the case of the Denver
Broncos, where we're playing at a deficit when it comes to the salary cap.
Doing well in this year's draft is going to come at a premium because
it's really the only way for us to be able to assemble a competitive roster.
Well, we've seen teams a year after year, you know, go
from worse the first or teams that there's usually five that missed the playoffs the
year before and finding themselves getting into the playoffs in the current season. Now,
looking at the Broncos, and it's interesting that you brought up, you
know, the salary cap and whether the Broncos are How long can members of
Broncos Country expect this team to kind of be where they are now until we
start talking about a massive turnaround? Well, what are we looking at?
Is this a two three year type of situation? You know, it's really
just conjecture, And I would say it would be reasonable, if everything ends
up working out the way that we hope it does through the draft and through
cap management, to start to see more of a turnaround sometime next year or
the year after. It's possible, as the nineteen ninety nine Saint Louis Rams
proved to be able to turn it around in one year. I mean they
went from a losing franchise to Super Bowl champions. That's the extreme end of
the spectrum. That's not something that I would bank on. But if you're
looking at Denver situation, it's not just what the Broncos are going to be
able to do in the draft. It's not just a matter of figuring out
the quarterback position, whether it's trading up for a JJ McCarthy, whether it's
drafting a bon Nicks, or whether it's riding it out with Jared Sidham.
We also have to rely on other teams taking a step back, and when
you're in a division with Kansas City, that's anything but a guarantee. I
did say at the end of twenty twenty two that we were going to see
a step back from the Kansas City Chiefs, either in terms of win loss
or in terms of performance at the quarterback position. And statistically, Patrick Mahomes
had the worst year of his career, finishing towards the middle of the league
in most efficiency metrics. They offset that by having a top two scoring defense.
So the team won anyway because Patrick Mahomes delivered when it met the most
Conceivably, if Kansas City were to take a big step back, if Los
Angeles is not able to rebuild the way that they're hoping to rebuild with hardball,
is it possible the Denver could be competitive this year. It's possible.
Realistically, I think we're looking at twenty twenty five, twenty six pivoting topics.
Here just a little bit. You you know, you put out the
numbers on the on the guy we interviewed right before you came on the show,
Drake NuGen, and you go to at the Ryan Michael on Twitter,
you can see a JJ McCarthy had a spike in production. As soon as
they got Drake NuGen in there to play, center's completion percentage went up nearly
ten points, the yards per attempt went up. You know, from twenty
fourth to twelfth of college football, his quarterback reading from one fifty five to
one to sixty seven point four. It was good for night. Is that
all on Drake? Was there a different in play calling or did he legitimately
make that much of a difference. There's no question that he made a tremendous
impact. And as you stated earlier in the show, the numbers. As
Pro Football Focus has emphasized, speak for themselves. He does not allow pressure
to get to the quarterback. He does not allow the quarterback to end up
on his back. So it's a partial credit to him along with the entire
offensive line. It's something that Denver really needs to keep in mind because historically,
speaking at the quarterback position, you can't run away from solid pass protection.
There are a small group of quarterbacks who can get away with it with
a quick release. Dan Marino did that for a lot of years. Peyton
Manning did that for a lot of years. It's not something that you can
bake on. So whether it's a rookie quarterback stepping into year one, whether
it's a veteran journeyman like Jared Sidham, there's no running away from the importance
of pass protection. It's something that Broncos should definitely look into well the Broncos
looking to twenty twenty five and twenty twenty six. By your assessment of where
this team should look to make his turnaround, what would be safe to say
using this particular draft, And as though Ban and I talked about, I
know everyone wants a team to move up to go get their quarterback, but
would be fair to say to just move back and just kind of build your
team, but more importantly build an add depth and competition at that offensive line
position to make sure that you are capable of making somewhat of a competitive run
in twenty twenty five into twenty twenty six. I have said this before and
I'll say it again. If it is even possible for them to the trade
up for one of the Big Four quarterbacks, I think they would be making
a grave mistake. And that's not so much an indictment on the quarterbacks and
the Big Four so much as it is the reality. The history speaks for
itself. As I said last week, even if JJ McCarthy, for conversation's
sake, is as good as advertised, if he's stepping into a situation with
weak pass protection, he's not going to go very far. And if we're
able to take bow knicks, whether it be at number twelve, which I
think is too early to take him, it might be more reasonable to try
to trade back and get him at the end of the first round beginning of
the second round. But he's another young quarterback where if he's stepping into a
situation with poor task protection, history doesn't say that he's likely to find success.
And if you look at most quarterback outside of the number one overall selection,
in almost all cases, for the percentage of quarterbacks who ended up going
on to have successful seasons that led to successful careers, they stepped into successful
situations with strong team support. So Denver thinks that they're going to mortgage their
future to get the big name quarterback. It'll sell a lot of jerseys.
But if you're going to be putting him behind a shaky offensive lineman defense that
gives up a lot of points, there's no reasonable expectation for that quarterback to
be successful. And that I think is my concern. It's not that I
don't want one of these big four. I don't want to give up the
assets to do it and then be unable to build around that guy. I
don't want to set one of these guys up for failure. And I think
that's that's sort of been the lens which with I. I've been on this.
People on social media, you know, you know how they are.
They come up with every day, they come up with every line in the
book, and they'll say, well, Ben does what the Broncos be successful
that's not true. Roder the cover of Winner Dude. But at the end
of the day, I think giving up the assets to get a young guy
and then not surrounding him or being able to maximize you because you've lost the
draft capital. To me, that's a loser plan. And maybe am I
wrong on this? Or is am I just seeing this? Am I seeing
this thing correctly? Or is the data conclusive here? Now I'm in agreement
with you, and I would say, outside of Andrew Luck off the top
of your head, how many quarterbacks can you think of, whether they be
first, second, third round quarterbacks, but young quarterbacks who stepped into situations
who found success without strong team situations. Andrew Lucky is the only name that
comes to mind. You can make an argument for Trevor Lawrence, who went
from twenty eighth and adjustin nt yards forer attempt as a rookie in an awful
situation, and then he finished eighth in twenty twenty two with a Jaguars team
that I don't think collectively was nearly as talented as he was. But then
again, we're talking about two number one overall draft picks who are all time
great prospect, So I agree with you completely, Ben, whoever it is
that we're taking, whether the idea is to trade up or to trade back,
or to go sit them, history doesn't say that that quarterback is going
to find success if we're not able to surround him with success. With that
being said, i don't know if you've taken a deep dive into these numbers
just yet, but I've been just thinking about this. Some of these coaches
and organizations who move up to get these quarterbacks and the quarterbacks flame out.
I'm just interested to see, well, what's the number on those coaches and
how long they remain in the league because I'm looking at this situation the Broncos
currently find themselves in and if the ideas to move up for a quarterback and
give up assets, this is something you have to get right. This is
not something where you have very little room I'll put it this way for a
mistake. So what do you think the numbers are for those coaches who've kind
of survived making mistakes at the quarterback position. It's a short list, and
traditionally speaking, when you have head coaches who are able to take especially a
high draft pick. So if you think of Doug Peterson with Trevor Lawrence before
he ended up getting hurt towards the end of last year. Think of Sean
McVay with Jared Bobb. If there is a head coach who was able to
maximize the potential of that young quarterback, they're going to have an opportunity to
have a good run at rebuilding that team. But if you draft a quarterback
high and it doesn't end up panning out, whether it be partially on the
head coach or not, he's going to carry a good amount of responsibility for
that disappointment at the position and they're not going to last long. So whether
it Sean Payton or anybody else, it's definitely something to keep in mind because
organizations don't tend to keep head coaches around who aren't able to maximize the potential
of the quarterbacks they take high in the draft. Ryan, we always appreciate
you time. Looking forward to giving get a chat with you next week,
and I think you're going to bring us some some interesting nuggets on some of
these guys that the Broncos has signed this off season, things we didn't know.
Yes, sir, I'm already on it, absolutely looking forward to it,
man, and have a good Week, It's a Ryan Michael. V
Ryan Michael on Twitter