1 00:00:03,439 --> 00:00:06,839 Welcome to a brand new, one hundred percent free episode of the Low Limit 2 00:00:06,879 --> 00:00:11,240 Cash Games podcast. This is a podcast I created exclusively for you, the 3 00:00:11,279 --> 00:00:15,679 lowest stakes poker player at your local card room or at your home poker games. 4 00:00:15,720 --> 00:00:18,239 One two, no limit, one three, no limit. We're here 5 00:00:18,280 --> 00:00:21,960 to help you become a winning player. Let's jump right into it, shall 6 00:00:22,000 --> 00:00:25,920 we. Today we're gonna be talking about understanding variants. The reason I created 7 00:00:25,960 --> 00:00:30,359 this podcast is because I get so many messages from you guys, and I 8 00:00:30,440 --> 00:00:35,159 love getting messages positive, negative, questions, hand histories. I reply to 9 00:00:35,200 --> 00:00:38,119 everybody. Sometimes it takes longer than others, but I will get back to 10 00:00:38,119 --> 00:00:41,560 you. And over the past to two weeks or so, I guess I've 11 00:00:41,560 --> 00:00:47,479 gotten several messages about, you know, people on bad runs and how unlucky 12 00:00:47,520 --> 00:00:51,359 they are or want me to, you know, look at several hands and 13 00:00:51,399 --> 00:00:55,280 see if they're playing poorly. And I find that, generally speaking, most 14 00:00:55,280 --> 00:01:00,880 people have a poor understanding of variants, whether it be positive or negative variants, 15 00:01:00,920 --> 00:01:04,280 because you can experience both of them. So I was sitting here trying 16 00:01:04,319 --> 00:01:08,079 to come up with a way that I could explain variants in a way that 17 00:01:08,120 --> 00:01:12,799 wouldn't make it crystal clear to you, so that moving forward, you know, 18 00:01:12,840 --> 00:01:18,439 no matter whether you're experiencing positive variants or negative variants, you'll be able 19 00:01:18,480 --> 00:01:21,959 to recognize it, understand it, and understand that it's just normal. I 20 00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:23,439 think would be great in the world of poker. And now I'm as guilty 21 00:01:23,480 --> 00:01:30,879 as this as anybody as if we could normalize the phrase running normal. So 22 00:01:30,959 --> 00:01:33,000 when somebody asks you, hey, how's poker going, go, oh, 23 00:01:33,120 --> 00:01:37,239 yeah, I'm running normal, and you use it. Whether you've had eleven 24 00:01:37,280 --> 00:01:42,079 winning sessions in a row, or whether you are winning one session and losing 25 00:01:42,120 --> 00:01:46,200 seven sessions, or you're down ten buy ins or whatever, You're just running 26 00:01:46,200 --> 00:01:49,799 normal because that is normal. The law of large numbers is extremely large. 27 00:01:49,200 --> 00:01:56,400 And while it's true over time statistically things will average out to the probabilities they're 28 00:01:56,400 --> 00:02:00,599 supposed to average out to, it can take a really long time for that 29 00:02:00,640 --> 00:02:05,239 to happen. And I've had several real life examples I would that I've talked 30 00:02:05,280 --> 00:02:10,840 about. There's this female professional tournament player I want to say her name is 31 00:02:12,240 --> 00:02:16,159 Corona Cova, Maria maybe, and she was on a I think it was 32 00:02:16,199 --> 00:02:21,639 the Thinking Poker podcast. I'm not sure what podcast it was I think that 33 00:02:21,719 --> 00:02:27,960 was it, but she was talking about how she was down one thousand buy 34 00:02:28,039 --> 00:02:32,120 ins. Now it's a winning poker player, well known. I think she's 35 00:02:32,159 --> 00:02:37,599 written a book or two. But that's some negative variants. But it's normal. 36 00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:40,199 I mean, in a year, that's completely normal. So it takes 37 00:02:40,199 --> 00:02:46,840 a lifetime for you to achieve anything remotely resembling the expected probabilities. Now, 38 00:02:47,479 --> 00:02:51,879 online players have an advantage in that they're playing five, ten, fifteen, 39 00:02:51,960 --> 00:02:54,439 twenty times as many hands as we can play live, and so they get 40 00:02:54,479 --> 00:03:00,520 to you know, expected probably is a lot faster. Nevertheless, I've come 41 00:03:00,599 --> 00:03:04,080 up with an experiment that you can do for yourself. I want to first 42 00:03:04,120 --> 00:03:07,280 put a disclaimer out there and let you know that this is for you to 43 00:03:07,400 --> 00:03:14,680 experience in an imaginary way. Okay, I want you to try to drink 44 00:03:14,719 --> 00:03:17,599 it all in, take it all in close your eyes, and experiences that 45 00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:22,520 work as if it were really happening. But I am in no way recommending 46 00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:25,120 that you actually do it. I forbid you to do it, I'm not 47 00:03:25,280 --> 00:03:29,719 suggesting that you do it in no way in a billion years. I'm not 48 00:03:29,840 --> 00:03:35,120 actually telling you to do what I'm about to say. Okay, So we're 49 00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:44,120 going to talk about when your pocket paces get beat by pocket kings. Now, 50 00:03:44,159 --> 00:03:46,199 if all the money goes in pre flop, which is what we're going 51 00:03:46,240 --> 00:03:52,280 to use, the pocket kings are going to beat your pocket ass about twenty 52 00:03:52,360 --> 00:03:55,879 ish percent of the time. Okay, we're just gonna say twenty ish for 53 00:03:55,960 --> 00:04:00,240 simplicity's sake, So about twenty percent of the times. That's one in five. 54 00:04:00,360 --> 00:04:03,800 So one out of every five times that you get it all in pre 55 00:04:03,879 --> 00:04:08,319 fought with pocket aces and your opponent has pocket kings. By the way, 56 00:04:08,479 --> 00:04:14,159 this is also pocket queen's pocket jack's pocket tins, et cetera. You're gonna 57 00:04:14,199 --> 00:04:17,519 win four out of five times. It's like overwhelming, right, You're an 58 00:04:17,519 --> 00:04:21,639 eighty percent favorite to win. That's an insane amount of times that you win. 59 00:04:23,399 --> 00:04:26,040 And so you just expect to win, right, You just expect to 60 00:04:26,040 --> 00:04:29,720 win. And when your aces get cracked and they bink a king on the 61 00:04:29,759 --> 00:04:31,759 flop or the turn of the river, you're like, oh god, that's 62 00:04:31,800 --> 00:04:34,240 just I'm just supposed to win that. Well, I mean, you're not 63 00:04:34,360 --> 00:04:39,120 really supposed to win it. You know, over the your course of your 64 00:04:39,240 --> 00:04:41,600 entire life, on average, you're supposed to win it. You know, 65 00:04:41,600 --> 00:04:44,560 four out of five times, but you're never supposed to win it every time. 66 00:04:45,279 --> 00:04:50,120 And so if you want to understand with crystal clarity what twenty percent feels 67 00:04:50,160 --> 00:04:55,480 like, so that you can understand that it's way more than your brain comprehends, 68 00:04:56,879 --> 00:05:05,000 picture this imaginary experiment. Shall we imagine that you have a friend or 69 00:05:05,000 --> 00:05:10,720 a partner or spouse, whoever, and they're sitting across the table from you, 70 00:05:11,959 --> 00:05:15,759 and they have a hammer. Now, instead of it being like a 71 00:05:15,759 --> 00:05:19,879 big twenty ounce ballpeen hammer or something that would just crush everything, let's say 72 00:05:19,879 --> 00:05:24,639 it's one of those hard rubber mallets. I mean, it's still gonna hurt 73 00:05:24,680 --> 00:05:29,480 like a you know what when they slam your finger, But we're gonna take 74 00:05:29,519 --> 00:05:32,720 and you're gonna slide your hand out on the table and they're gonna raise the 75 00:05:32,759 --> 00:05:38,759 hammer up, and one out of every five times, one out of every 76 00:05:38,759 --> 00:05:43,920 five times, they're gonna slam this rubber mallet hammer down on your fingers. 77 00:05:44,560 --> 00:05:46,439 And the way they're going to decide whether to do it or not is they're 78 00:05:46,439 --> 00:05:51,800 gonna go to like random Number generator dot org or whatever, and they're gonna 79 00:05:51,839 --> 00:05:57,040 tell it to give you a number between one, and five, So it'll 80 00:05:57,040 --> 00:05:59,800 either spit out one, two, three, four, or five. And 81 00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:03,319 every time it spits out of five, they slam the thing down on your 82 00:06:03,319 --> 00:06:09,680 finger. Okay, Now, every time they don't slam the hammer down on 83 00:06:09,720 --> 00:06:14,319 your finger, you get one hundred dollars bill. So they're either going to 84 00:06:14,399 --> 00:06:17,000 be handing you one hundred dollars and they got this big bag of hundreds over 85 00:06:17,000 --> 00:06:19,839 here right your partner or your friend, or your wife or spouse, they 86 00:06:19,879 --> 00:06:24,279 got a big, big bag one hundred dollars bills, and they got this 87 00:06:24,480 --> 00:06:30,480 hard rubber ballot hammer. So eighty percent of the time you're getting one hundred 88 00:06:30,480 --> 00:06:32,600 dollars, baby, who does not want that? Eighty percent of the time, 89 00:06:32,639 --> 00:06:35,040 I get one hundred dollars. Let's rock and roll. Let's roll it 90 00:06:35,120 --> 00:06:39,040 up, man. The odds are on my side. I'm getting a hundred 91 00:06:39,040 --> 00:06:44,519 bucks. Let's go wham ow. Fingers throbbing. They rolled to five right 92 00:06:44,560 --> 00:06:47,399 out of the gate. Now, I want you to try to internalize this, 93 00:06:47,480 --> 00:06:50,879 and I want you to understand what this could feel like, because that's 94 00:06:51,040 --> 00:06:55,319 very vivid. You get either getting a hundred dollars, you getting your fingers 95 00:06:55,360 --> 00:07:00,439 smashed. Within only one or two standard deviations. The following will and many 96 00:07:00,480 --> 00:07:04,879 times you could get your fingers slammed three times in a row, and it'd 97 00:07:04,879 --> 00:07:11,839 be perfectly normal. The person across the table from you could push the old 98 00:07:11,920 --> 00:07:15,160 random number generator roll of five, smash your finger, push the random number 99 00:07:15,199 --> 00:07:19,600 generator roll of five, smash your finger, push the random number generator roll 100 00:07:19,639 --> 00:07:23,839 of five, and smash your finger, and it'll be three times in a 101 00:07:23,920 --> 00:07:27,680 row. When you were an eighty percent favorite, your finger is literally throbbing. 102 00:07:27,839 --> 00:07:32,120 It's throbbing like one of those big cartoon fingers block bla blab, and 103 00:07:32,160 --> 00:07:35,199 you're like, whoa what I was eighty percent favorite to get one hundred dollars. 104 00:07:35,279 --> 00:07:38,759 You don't have one hundred dollars. You should have three hundred dollars in 105 00:07:38,759 --> 00:07:41,720 your head. Right, that was three times as you have three hundred dollars, 106 00:07:41,720 --> 00:07:46,920 you've got no dollars, and you got messed up finger, also perfectly 107 00:07:46,000 --> 00:07:50,360 within the realm of standard deviations. Five times out of ten they could smash 108 00:07:50,360 --> 00:07:55,120 your fingers. Now, that's normal. Five times out of ten. That 109 00:07:55,480 --> 00:07:58,519 happens all the time when it's only supposed to be two times out of ten, 110 00:07:58,639 --> 00:08:01,240 right, But atas could be five times out of ten, which means 111 00:08:01,279 --> 00:08:07,399 every other time it could happen. If something can happen five times out of 112 00:08:07,439 --> 00:08:11,160 ten, that means every other time it could happen. So one hundred dollars, 113 00:08:11,480 --> 00:08:15,360 smash finger, one hundred dollars smash finger, one hundred dollars, smash 114 00:08:15,399 --> 00:08:18,680 finger, on, on and on, ten times in a row. Your 115 00:08:18,680 --> 00:08:22,079 fingers are dying. You can't use them anymore. Sure, you got five 116 00:08:22,160 --> 00:08:24,079 hundred dollars, but you're supposed to have eight hundred dollars, and your fingers 117 00:08:24,079 --> 00:08:30,920 aren't supposed to hurt nearly as bad. This is all perfectly normal. Now, 118 00:08:30,959 --> 00:08:35,200 let's look at the flip side of it, also perfectly within standard deviation. 119 00:08:35,639 --> 00:08:41,159 You could go twenty times in a row and never get your fingers smashed. 120 00:08:41,440 --> 00:08:45,240 Never BAM rolls of one gives you a hundred BAM. Rolls of three, 121 00:08:45,240 --> 00:08:46,559 it gives you a hundred BAM. Rolls of deuce gives you a hundred 122 00:08:46,559 --> 00:08:52,360 BAM. Rolls of four gives you a hundred bam hundred bam hundred hundred hundred 123 00:08:52,639 --> 00:08:56,200 hundred hundred, one hundred hundred twenty times in a row. This person across 124 00:08:56,200 --> 00:08:58,840 the table from you're just throw one hundred dollars bills at you, and you're 125 00:08:58,879 --> 00:09:01,399 like, yes, I'm an eighty percent favorite. This is what's supposed to 126 00:09:01,480 --> 00:09:05,440 happen. And you don't feel like that. It's odd. You don't feel 127 00:09:05,480 --> 00:09:07,679 like that, it's abnormal. You don't feel like your cheat math in any 128 00:09:07,720 --> 00:09:09,960 kind of way, because in your head, you're supposed to win. You're 129 00:09:11,000 --> 00:09:13,679 the favorite. You've got aces, they got queens. You're supposed to win. 130 00:09:13,679 --> 00:09:16,120 You're supposed to get one hundred dollars, but you're not. You're not 131 00:09:16,159 --> 00:09:20,559 supposed to get the one hundred dollars twenty times in a row. Do you 132 00:09:20,600 --> 00:09:24,080 know the differences? It doesn't bother you when that's happening. You don't find 133 00:09:24,120 --> 00:09:26,000 it odd, you don't find it strange, you don't find it remarkable. 134 00:09:26,039 --> 00:09:30,960 You don't text all your friends and go, wow, I'm running crazy positive 135 00:09:31,000 --> 00:09:33,039 I want one hundred dollars or five times in the row in this game. 136 00:09:33,080 --> 00:09:37,000 You don't do any of that because you expect to win. Your brain expects 137 00:09:37,039 --> 00:09:41,519 to win because your brain has told you that eighty percent means one hundred percent. 138 00:09:43,399 --> 00:09:48,080 And this is the most dramatic way I can think of to express to 139 00:09:48,080 --> 00:09:56,159 you how to internalize positive variants and negative variants. Now, if we were 140 00:09:56,240 --> 00:09:58,200 to look at and you can do this for yourself, right, just go, 141 00:09:58,519 --> 00:10:03,080 I don't I think it's random number generator dot org or random dot org 142 00:10:03,159 --> 00:10:05,120 or something. If you just google random number generator until it you want it 143 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:07,759 to roll you a number between you know, one to five or whatever, 144 00:10:09,279 --> 00:10:15,519 and just push the button. Just keep pushing it, and just notate how 145 00:10:15,519 --> 00:10:18,720 many times strings of three happen, or strings of five, or strings of 146 00:10:18,759 --> 00:10:20,360 seven happen, or five out of ten happens, or seven out of ten 147 00:10:20,399 --> 00:10:24,000 happens when it's supposed to be two out of ten, and just see, 148 00:10:24,519 --> 00:10:26,559 you know, just do it like three hundred times, just blah blam, 149 00:10:26,559 --> 00:10:30,600 blam blam three hundred times. And then look at the patterns that happen and 150 00:10:30,759 --> 00:10:33,799 understand that all those fall within the mathematical realm possibility. But see how many 151 00:10:33,840 --> 00:10:37,440 times it was crazy one way or the other. And then understand that when 152 00:10:37,480 --> 00:10:43,879 you're kings get run down by pocket jacks, that nothing strange happened. You 153 00:10:43,919 --> 00:10:50,039 aren't the unluckiest person ever. It's just the law of large numbers playing itself 154 00:10:50,080 --> 00:10:56,919 out in your very limited lifespan. Why is this important. I'll tell you 155 00:10:56,960 --> 00:11:01,799 why it's important. Because the reason people go on to lose and have bad 156 00:11:01,799 --> 00:11:07,159 sessions is not because somebody two out of them with pocket jack's when you had 157 00:11:07,200 --> 00:11:16,039 aces. That's not why why you lose is your brain goes into mega tilt. 158 00:11:16,480 --> 00:11:20,679 You got robbed, you got stolen from the poker gods hate you. 159 00:11:20,320 --> 00:11:26,799 I'm tilted up, and your gameplay goes into the pooper. You start playing 160 00:11:26,799 --> 00:11:30,399 too many hands, you start raising too many hands, you start trying to 161 00:11:30,399 --> 00:11:33,440 bluff too many hands. You just start doing all kinds of stuff because your 162 00:11:33,480 --> 00:11:37,159 brain is on megatilt. And now you tilt off two three buy ins. 163 00:11:39,279 --> 00:11:41,039 And when you go home that night or the next day, when you're talking 164 00:11:41,120 --> 00:11:45,080 your buddies, you're like, yeah, gosh, just got devastated last night. 165 00:11:45,120 --> 00:11:48,759 Man run my aces into queens and no good. And that's all you 166 00:11:48,840 --> 00:11:52,159 tell them. You don't tell them that after that happened, that you went 167 00:11:52,159 --> 00:11:58,080 on monkey tilt and played like an absolute buffoon for the next three hours and 168 00:11:58,200 --> 00:12:01,639 just tilted off another two buy ins. And when I say you, I 169 00:12:01,679 --> 00:12:05,480 mean me. This isn't accusatory, This isn't I'm better than you. This 170 00:12:05,559 --> 00:12:11,679 is human nature. But if you can really visualize and understand that what happened 171 00:12:11,720 --> 00:12:16,399 is normal, you are running normal when that happens, and then do what 172 00:12:16,440 --> 00:12:20,679 you need to do. Stand up, go for a walk, take a 173 00:12:20,720 --> 00:12:24,360 five minute walk, go outside, get some fresh air. I don't know 174 00:12:24,600 --> 00:12:30,279 what amuses you. Open up TikTok and look at some dumbcat videos or whatever 175 00:12:30,279 --> 00:12:33,480 it is that resets your brain, because you have got to reset your brain 176 00:12:33,519 --> 00:12:35,559 because right now your brain is locked up. Your brain is locked up, 177 00:12:35,559 --> 00:12:39,039 and the poker god's hate me mode. Your brain is locked up, and 178 00:12:39,080 --> 00:12:41,879 I got robbed mode. Your brain is locked up, and I got beat 179 00:12:41,919 --> 00:12:45,159 mode. Your brain is locked up, and I'm running bad mode. Your 180 00:12:45,159 --> 00:12:46,679 brain is locked up and nothing I do is going to work today mode. 181 00:12:46,759 --> 00:12:50,200 And that's the mode your brain is in, and you have got to snap 182 00:12:50,279 --> 00:12:54,440 it out and reset it. Take a five minute walk, look at some 183 00:12:54,480 --> 00:13:01,639 silly videos on TikTok. Text your girlfriend and I don't know, tell her 184 00:13:01,720 --> 00:13:07,080 she's sexy or something whatever. I don't know what it is. But take 185 00:13:07,159 --> 00:13:11,039 some time and reset your brain and then come back into the game and play 186 00:13:11,080 --> 00:13:16,320 the game like that. Twenty percenter never happened. It never happened. That's 187 00:13:16,559 --> 00:13:20,799 we can't do anything about it. That's in the past. It was normal, 188 00:13:20,919 --> 00:13:26,000 it was average, it was nothing remarkable. And then we go on 189 00:13:26,039 --> 00:13:28,320 to play our our A game. You gotta keep playing your A game, 190 00:13:28,360 --> 00:13:33,519 and odds are you'll get that money back. It's a very good chance you 191 00:13:33,559 --> 00:13:35,799 get that money back before your session is over, provided you brought you another 192 00:13:35,840 --> 00:13:39,279 two or three buy ins, provided you don't go on tilt. Did you 193 00:13:39,279 --> 00:13:46,480 still play a solid game and everything is fine. Let's normalize saying we're running 194 00:13:46,519 --> 00:13:48,960 normal. Just try it. I'm trying it. It's an experiment for me 195 00:13:50,120 --> 00:13:54,799 because the mental game is the hardest part of over It's not understanding what undergun 196 00:13:54,879 --> 00:13:58,120 ranges are. It's not knowing what your three bit cut off range is. 197 00:13:58,559 --> 00:14:01,240 Now that stuff is easy. You can figure that stuff out. You can 198 00:14:01,279 --> 00:14:05,840 memorize it. It's as easy as memorization. The hard part is the mental 199 00:14:05,879 --> 00:14:11,639 game. It's getting your mind right. It's understanding that twenty percenters happened way 200 00:14:11,639 --> 00:14:15,759 more than we think, and we think about it too much. And then 201 00:14:15,799 --> 00:14:18,720 when we're running three times what we should in a positive way, we don't 202 00:14:18,720 --> 00:14:20,759 think about it and we just expect it, and we need to understand it 203 00:14:20,799 --> 00:14:26,240 all of that is normalized, and continue to play our a game as much 204 00:14:26,279 --> 00:14:30,879 as possible. Thanks for listening to the completely free, no strings attached, 205 00:14:31,000 --> 00:14:35,879 low stakes poker strategy podcasts that I created specifically to help you become a winning 206 00:14:35,000 --> 00:14:39,559 player. On the first Sunday of every month, I post a brand new, 207 00:14:39,600 --> 00:14:43,759 completely pre podcast for the public, which is available on all the major 208 00:14:43,879 --> 00:14:48,200 podcast platforms. The rest of the episodes are exclusive for fans of the pod 209 00:14:48,240 --> 00:14:52,480 and members of my Patreon poker training site. Fans of the pod contribute only 210 00:14:52,519 --> 00:14:54,519 five dollars a month in an exchange, they get an episode of the podcast 211 00:14:54,759 --> 00:15:00,799 every single Sunday all year long. That's intro free, fluff free, ad 212 00:15:00,840 --> 00:15:03,679 free, and it's delivered on the Patreon platform and also available to we listened 213 00:15:03,679 --> 00:15:07,240 to on most podcasting apps. You can get this too if you'd like, 214 00:15:07,399 --> 00:15:13,559 at Lowlimit Cashgames dot com. That's Lowlimit Cashgames dot com. While you're there, 215 00:15:13,600 --> 00:15:16,480 you'll also see some other options at that link, like a full Lowlimit 216 00:15:16,519 --> 00:15:22,679 training package filled with hundreds of hours of training videos, podcast charts, the 217 00:15:22,759 --> 00:15:26,759 private discord community, and more. There's also an option for some one on 218 00:15:26,759 --> 00:15:30,960 one coaching that's very limited but available from time to time you might want to 219 00:15:30,960 --> 00:15:35,000 take advantage of that. Also highly recommend the Advanced Poker Training Software. The 220 00:15:35,039 --> 00:15:37,240 link to that is in the description and Info section of this podcast and is 221 00:15:37,279 --> 00:15:41,919 included as a twenty five percent discount code. Thanks so much for subscribing to 222 00:15:41,960 --> 00:15:46,799 the podcast and listening, and remember run good, play better, and always 223 00:15:46,879 --> 00:15:48,080 leave if you go on till