The banking system is going extinct. To say what is Nobody wants to say
that it's going away. And that's why I told my members we're not touching.
We're not touching these banks. I want nothing to do with them.
The pattern is so bad, it's so broken. There is no reason to
get involved in these names. We have no edge over that market right now.
And I know some people on TV they're saying, hey, you got
the banking system is going extinct like the way of the fake dinosaurs. You're
listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, where you get valuable information you just
can't find anywhere else to thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial
Survival Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survival Network dot com and
get your free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival Network now more than ever.
Welcome. This is Financial Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie lets We
got Nick Santiago with us today. Nick. Hey, well, first we'll
do our daily market to wrap up it's actually three times per week, but
and then we'll get into more of the macro type view of the world,
the economy, etc. So first off, the markets looking choppy, today.
Yeah, the markets are very choppy today, and in fact, they've
been choppy for you can make a case for the last six weeks. You
know, we go up for a couple of days, we go down for
a little bit. But one thing I've noticed carry and that's this is something
that should be very important to the listeners, is that the volume trends have
been extremely light since late March, and that's what's helped keep these markets buoyant.
A lot of people think when markets go up on light volume that that
is just the retail investor or the retail trader pushing it up. But it's
not. It's the institutional trader pushing the market up and keeping it up.
And when you get selling pressure and you get high volumes, say one hundred
million shares of more in the spiders, that's telling you this real, real
institutional sell side pressure on the market. If you don't get that, just
to expect the markets to remain buoyant. And you know, I try to
explain that a lot of times to my listeners in there almost like program to
think that, oh, it's just a retail trader pushing the markets up.
It's never the retail trader that ever moves markets. You can go back to
the mean stocks and know those Reddit boards, that's still institutional traders. So
just remember, light volume keeps a buoyant upside market. Heavy volume almost every
time except at a major low, you're going to see downside action. Yeah,
yeah, yeah, we've seen that over and over past years that we've
been doing the show. Exactly what you're describing. And light volume is easier
to manipulate the market up or down for that matter, absolutely, and it
just there's no selling pressure, so you only have to have, you know,
a small buy program of SMP futures contracts to move the market anyway you
want. And now they got this ODT which expires the same day, same
day vix. I mean, there's just so much manipulation going on are intra
day it's rather remarkable. I can't tell you how many times I see the
markets have a hard sell off and then by twelve twelve o'clock in the afternoon,
one o'clock in the afternoon, they just flow right back up to the
high. It's like nothing ever happened. And that's why I always tell you
it's not how they opened, it's how they close. And that's what you
have to watch for right. Hey, so Twitter, Elon has hired a
new CEO for Twitter, and she looks to be a well I don't know
what she is, but she's the former head of NBC Universal. So what's
this about. Well, I've been getting videos sent by her all day long,
actually started last night, and I must have watched ten of them.
So you know, she was one of those people mask up and ship out
and all of this stuff. So I think Twitter's on even going to revert
back to the way it was. Elon came in, you got everybody excited
thinking it's going to be a free speech platform. I'm not so sure that
I wouldn't wouldn't buy into that one. We'll see how she is when she
gets on board, but I have to think she's a lefty all the way
through and through. And you know, again, all you want is just
somebody to be fair. I mean that's all people want. They just want,
you know, somewhere where they can share and expressed vevues without being shadow
banned or without being blocked or you know. But again, you know,
all of these platforms have an agenda. If you ask me, yeah,
no doubt. Well hopefully it won't go back to the way it was because
whatever you say about Musk is opening the platform up has led to higher and
higher viewership and more importantly, people spending more time on the site. And
if they switch, if they keep it open and they switch and start doing
videos and video advertising, they will crush all the pettitors just by being a
free and open platform. So hopefully they won't revert. But I'm not convinced
the proof of the pudding is in the tasting, as they say. So,
energy today is looking better. Huh, Yeah, Energy's firmed up today.
I mean, we have some news out there, I think by the
Department of Energy. They basically came out and said they're gonna fill up the
Strategic Petroleum Reserve in June. Now, why haven't they done that already when
the price has gone you know, even we went to sub seventy recently is
beyond me. But you know, that's giving energy a little bit of a
bump. I don't know if that news is going to be long lasting.
I still think oil is in a very very tough position here. If it
loses the recent pivot low from this month, the oil is going to go
down to fifty dollars now. When it gets down to fifty though, if
it should or should it get there, that's going to be a monster buying
opportunity. We'll see who is willing to step up when that happens. All
right, And goal, the goal dipped yesterday and today, what's going on
with it? Yeah, gold kind of is flat right now, but he
had a little bit of a sell off. The bigger story though, was
silver. Silver really got hit hard yesterday, that had a big, big
decline and today silver is on the weaker side as we speak right now,
So that's something I would have to watch for. But I'm open for silver
two fold back. As you know, I'm looking to get back into silver
soon and I'm welcoming this fall in the commodity. What do you think at
entry point? What is the entry point you're looking for for silver? Rein
Well, I'm thinking if if it can. I forget the key levels I
had, um, I don't have them in front of me, But what
I would say is if we could get down into that twenty dollar area,
I really think that's probably a starting entry point for a long pole. And
when I mean a long fall, I'm ultimately looking for silver to go into
the to the load of mid thirties. Okay, and yeah, well you
called the load to vantine and you know you haven't backed off up to this
point. You've been very bullish on it. You think there's a consolidation here
or something. Yeah. So I think the latest run up that we had
in silver and in gold was really on the back of fear was it was
really on the back of the central bankers, you know, making a bad
blunder with the inverted yield curve and all these banks, you know, original
banks are in trouble and they still are. Nothing has changed there. So
I think now you're starting to see because the markets have held up so much,
everybody's thinking the Fed he's done. You know, the Fed fundrated way
above the two year Treasury note yield. So I think gold and silver just
ran up on the fact that, hey, there's uncertainty out here, I'm
going to own precious metals. But that is telling you what's going to go
on in the future. What's going to go on in the next couple of
years. Everybody's going to run to a hard asset. They're not going to
look to be in X y Z. They're gonna say Hey, I want
to be in gold. I want to be in silver. I want to
be in oil, I want to be in neck gass, I want to
be in weak. I want to be something that I can take possession of.
And now we're not going to totally take possession of it, but that's
what things that people are gonna need, and that's where you're going to see
going forward. That's going to be the theme. I think we're in the
infancy of that of those moves, and you're going to get a giant commodity
breakout. That's what will take place, and where we're already up on the
cusp of that happening. Now. Okay, So and one other thing,
Bitcoin back under twenty seven thousand. Is this the beginning of the end for
bitcoin? It could be. It could be, But I had bitcoin making
one more surge, making a nominal high, and I think that's it.
So either way, there's still that chance of one more pushing bitcoin. But
it's already starting to look top heavy here, so I would be very very
cautious with it. But if you get one more pop, one more maybe
just a nominal new eye. I don't have the exact number was in front
of me, but that that would be it for Bitcoin. If it could
even do that, I'm not sure it's even gonna happen. Okay, I'm
with you on that, just seeing it very looking, very weak, and
without a doubt this the last few weeks, we've seen so much chop,
so much volatility. You know, you're seeing that the rally that's taking place
for the last couple of months is in jeopardy, and that that is certainly,
you know, but a lot of times what these markets do, and
not just Bitcoin, it's any market for that matter, they'll have that period
and then they'll get one more move back up and they'll get everybody on board,
and that's when they pull the rug out. So I would watch for
that pattern, and that's what I've told my members. You know, we're
looking for that. Okay, I think that's reasonable, all right, So
let's get into a more global macro perspective. First, the banking crisis,
which has really been sucking up all the oxygen in in the news cycle for
weeks now. I think we're onto like six weeks. This thing's been going
on with no let up in sight. Where does it end? How does
it end? Well, it's not going to end pretty because you've already had
three major bank failures. You know, a lot of people are saying this
is like the savings and loan crisis, but I think it's a little bit
more severe, and I would be very very careful here with these financials.
Now. We know that there was a discount window opened up by the Federal
Reserve allowing these banks to say, very very liquid. But we're seeing so
much money now going into money markets right everybody's you know, running in there
to get some yield. This is just not healthy. The inverted yield curve
is still in place between twos and tens, so yes, yields have gone
down. Maybe the spread is tightened between twos and tens, but it's still
there. It's been there for over a year. So you know this,
this is a big problem. This is not going to end any time soon.
I would avoid all financials. I am not touching them. I have
told my group already we have no edge in the financial game, because what
happens is if there's really a calamity here, you're gonna see the central banks.
What are they gonna do a QE. They're gonna cut rates. That's
gonna cause a rally. In fact, you could make a case that since
March thirteenth, the markets have gone up on the expectations that the FETE is
gonna cut. So again the central bankers have their nose in the event,
in the business. And you know, honestly, these banks are not looking
great. And you've seen a ton of money flood over to JP Morgan.
But when I look at a chart of Bank of America, where a chart
of city group, where Wells Fargo, those three don't look that good.
JP Morgan seems to be the only one holding up. So there's more of
a problem than is meeting the eye. I'm not a good person to tell
you the catalyst. I'm never good at that. I could just tell you
what the charts are saying, and they're not saying anything good right now,
right And there was a report I think I saw two days ago and then
it like disappeared off the screens that deposits in the major banks were down half
a billion, half a trillion dollars, that's five hundred billion. That's not
a good indicator that ball as well with the banking system. No, no,
it's not good. And you know, after we saw what happened when
First Republic get bought out for nothing, right, it was just basically taken
over by JP Morgan. Now we got pack West. Now you have Western
Lines, you have so many others. It's like a domino table, right,
one's going you know, one goes down, the rust go down.
We have four thousand regional banks, I think we used to have a ton
more, and you know, by the time this is over, we'll probably
have two thousand. Who knows you think? Is this setting the table for
the central bank digital currency? Is that what this is all about? Oh?
Absolutely? I mean ye had Christine Lagarde get pranked by somebody that acted
like voldemire Z Lensky. I didn't know if it was true or not.
And apparently it's true. And she's already talking about a digital euro coming out
in October that's going to have spending limits on it. Then in July we
have fed Now. So if you look at the fed now program, I
mean thousands of companies have already signed up to that. That's basically eliminating all
banks, right because you could just have a money transfer immediately, you don't
have to do any clearing, any anything like that. It's just going to
be instantaneous transactions, much like it is on the blockchain. So this is
all set in the stage up for central bank digital currency. I don't think
the US is going to roll that out immediately, but with FED now they'll
get more and more companies involved, and then then then they'll start with the
saving of me. See, so if there's no banking sector. Now,
going back to the beginnings of capitalism and America, the purpose of the banking
sector was to allocate capital. You would deposit your money in there to keep
it safe, to earn a return, and they would find worthy borrowers and
basically make loans. Now that's all changed. They don't even make any money
off of that stuff anymore. They make more money on fees like bounce check
fees, which some of them are creditive now because there is no reason for
a bank check a bounce check fee, because when your check bounces, it's
all digital anyway. It doesn't cost him anything. You know. That used
to be like the clerk had to stamp it and then they had to mill
it back to you or call you on the phone to make good. None
of that happens anymore. So it's a really they don't allocate capital anymore.
So there's the Central Bank just going to make loans, direct loans to borrowers.
Is that how they're going to make mortgages. I mean they're doing it
now. All real estate mortgages, as a practical matter, except for huge
bumbos, are guaranteed by the government. Effectively, they're making government loans,
right, And essentially the banking system is going extinct. Just say what is?
Nobody wants to say that it's going away. And that's why I told
my members we're not touching. We're not touching these banks. I want nothing
to do with them. The pattern is so bad, it's so broken.
There is no reason to get involved in these names. We have no edge
over that market right now. And I know some people on TV and you're
saying, hey, you got the banking system is going extinct like the way
of the fake dinosaurs. Yeah. Hey, So you know, I was
talking with my friend John Rabino about this, and you know, he was
dollar collapse. He's really knowledgeable. I'm saying, well, maybe we'll go
back to the days so the FED to get you to buy in to the
CBDC, they'll start giving out toasters and coffee makers so open account at the
CVDC account window at the FED and get a free flat screen TV. Right,
yeah, yeah, that's you know, I remember those days. They
weren't that long ago. I know, I remember people and young people don't
know those days. They don't remember those days. Yeah, I remember,
like I got all this money from on bar mitzvah, and we opened like
ten different accounts and ten different banks. I had like radios, and there
were such things your own crazy eddie. You could start your own little client
store. Hey, if we only had eBay then I could have sold it.
But I mean it's absurd. But you know they're gonna incentivize you.
Maybe it'll be a gift card to best Buy or a card accredited a whole
Soon. If you wanted to get a vaccine, they gave you a free
Crispy Creme donut, or in New York they gave you a French fries.
Right, I mean, yeah, well that's worth it. So you know
they'll be giving up McDonald's a big acts. They have to do something right.
They have to make people want to do this. They always have a
way though. Um listen, they're twenty steps ahead of everybody else, you
know, I can't think that people act like the Federal Reserve is stupid.
These guys have MBA's, PhDs, mathematicians, statisticians, you name it.
They got everybody at their disposal there. How could they miss this? Just
like transitory inflashing, they possibly miss that. Yeah, well yeah, I
always say the best things in life are transitory. But but you know,
like, yeah, they've got and they've got the direct data feeds from everything.
Believe me, you don't think in every at one Liberty Plaza there in
New York, which they used to work right around the corner for it,
they don't have a direct feed and they don't see every single unemployment claim coming
in. Of course, they do everything, all data everything. And you
know something, I've watched like the not just JAYE. Powell, but I've
watched all of these FED chairmen over the years, old press conferences, and
there have been times when the market is just plunging and then they could just
automatically say something and turn it right back around. They flip a switch.
Right. That's like we're calling in our trading when we call it the magic
wand yeah, weave the magic wand without anybody knowing, and it goes right
back up and levitates. So you know, this stuff's been going on for
ages, but you we're at a time now where, um, if you're
gonna tell me that they couldn't these so cold bankers out there with an inverted
yield curve couldn't make adjustments earlier, I just don't buy it. I don't
buy it. Maybe I'm just a skeptic. But you know, they knew
there would be problems with their current investments because all they're doing is parking money.
They're, like you said, they're not making money elsewhere, They're just
parking money. So it none of it makes any sense to me. I
don't buy into any of it. Maybe I'm just too much into skeptic.
All right, So interest rates they're gonna well first housing stocks, and this
is intimately tied to interest rates. They've been going higher recently, right,
they've been on a tear on a tear. You know, I bought puts
on Kabe Holmes, had a couple opportunities to make some money and have my
put options. They're gonna expire worthless because they've just gone higher and higher.
So it's on the anticipation that the feed is going to start to cut rates.
But they can't. They really can't cut rates because we're gonna get in
We're gonna get inflation back in droves. You've got wars going on, got
a war going on in Sudan, nobody's even talking about. It's like a
proxy war for Russia in the United States. Besides what's going on in Russia
and Ukraine. Then as you get China going into Taiwan, I mean you're
gonna get bank supply disruptions. What's gonna happen with the inflation right then we're
gonna we're gonna soar. The Fed knows this, they're not dumb. So
but maybe they're done raising for now with the whole under the guise of the
banking crisis, without a doubt. And they can be done because the Fed
funds rate is at five percent and the two year Treasury note yield is just
under four. So you know, they as long as they're above that two
year, that's what the market is looking at saying, hey, they could
be, they could be done. They could cut without about a point in
between the two year and the Fed funds rate. The Fed funds rates at
five, you know, we don't even need a central bank. If we
just let the Fed funds rate track the two year mind, it's natural rate,
right, that's right, There is a natural rate of interest rate on
money, and we don't really know what it is because the Fed manipulates it
because it's all part of central bank central planning. They're the ultimate central planners,
the central banks. Right, that's absolutely correct. All you have to
do is just let that so called Fed funds rate track the two year Treasury
note yield. Every veteran trader in the world knows that, and that's you
know, and that's why you know, we can tell when there's liquidity in
the system and known there's liquidity coming out of the system. Right now,
there's still some liquidity in this system, and with this banking crisis, that's
been the reason why we've had a rally, right yeah, because they've been
priming the presses, pumping up money. That's it. Boo commodities, you
mentioned that new commodity super cycle does that for everything, all commodities, for
everything, everything, so from coffee to a corn to gold and silver platinum.
Yeah. Yeah, they're not gonna go. They're they're not going to
all go at the same time. They'll be different starts and fits for different
things, because you know, money rotates, but it's they're all gonna rise,
they're all gonna I mean, they'll probably be one or two groups that
won't participate. But you're gonna see oil two hundred dollars a barrel. You're
gonna see neck gass go to new all time eyes in three years. You're
gonna see gold forget about it. Goal's going to go, you know,
to the moon. Silver too. Silver is gonna go back and test,
you know, the thirties, and then then it goes to its old eye
of fifty. So you know, this is this is all in just the
minute beginning stages here. But you could see that the accumulation, that's what
I watch. I watch these patterns and how they accumulate, how they accumulate.
And it's like a tea kettle. You know, you put the pot
of tea on the stove and the stove is burning, and then all of
a sudden that tea starts to boil and then the whistle goes off. Then
it's too late. It jumped. It has already jumped, all right,
but it's a little too early for that. Now, how are we going
to know for sure what's going to be that the tip off, the indicator
that you follow that says, hey, the commodity supercycle is back with a
V. It's already begun, right, so you've already had the moving silver
take off already. Gold is going to do some more starting and fitting,
but it's it's very range bound. The low in gold will be in the
fifteen hundreds. That's it. That's the bottom you're seeing in an oil.
Right, oil is going to have its pull back now it gets down to
fifty. That thing's taking off. Now, they're not just going to jump
to these level high levels. It'll take time to work up. Nothing goes
up in a straight line, nothing goes down in the straight line. But
it's already begun. It's already, it's already underway. And you know,
if you've been around this business as long as I have, you see those
patterns, you realize that it's already started. The key is going to be
you know, do you look for the breakouts? Are you're just willing to
sit in it, you know, but I like to trade it. So
for me, it's gonna be, Hey, we get a high volume breakout
day, that's it. That's kind of a tell that it's it's on.
You know, the move is on, and then you'll get pullbacks and you
play those retraces and you know you continue to do that until you know twenty
twenty eight. All right, so that gas has been in the cellar.
I mean you look at the chart. It is like the old Tromp bear
market chart, like eighty percent loss of value. I guess going back like
back to well it hit when did it hit its peak? Ten bucks?
So it hit ten bucks? Just what was that? It was not my
sharts in front of me, but they're behind me. Yeah it wasn't that.
We think, yeah, it wasn't that long ago. But but gad,
I want to hear what you have to say and then I'm gonna be
my comments on it. So, oh, that gas seems to know the
weather before any meteorologist or climate expert has a clue. That gas goes up
and then it's like, oh wait a second, it's a really hot summer
or it's a really cold winter. Nat Gas anticipates, always anticipates it.
I've been watching it for ten fifteen years, and it will know when it's
gonna get when we're gonna have a heat wave before anybody knows. Markets know
a lot. Markets are very very efficient. They always know something. But
here's my theory on that gas. So we went up to ten and that
was a monster, and press and drive higher. Now we've come back down
to two and everybody hates it. Here, that's the funniest thing. You
were at ten, now you're at two and everybody hates it. So when
I see something like I'm in that gas, I own it. I'm long
so and I'm long. I'm hoping to be long for years. I'm hoping
to be long for years. And if I get stopped out by some chance,
I'm just gonna re enter lower. So I'm going to keep getting back
into nat gass. But what I would say is, right now, if
you look at the monthly chart, you're going to notice that nat gas has
made a fire low. So in the big big scheme of things, I
think that the lows were already put in. You had that run up to
ten, and now we're seeing nat gass come back down and challenge the two
dollars level, which is what I call. First leg up to ten was
one wave. You're getting your wave two right here. It's in the start
of a three wave. Three wave is one of the most powerful waves in
markets. So anybody that follows Elliott wave or any other kind of wave theory,
the third wave. Everything comes in threes. The third wave is the
big one, and that's going to last a long, long time. And
I think it's in the very very beginning of that happening right now. All
right, Well, inclined to agree with you there. And one another thing
too, seasonality wise, Natural guests almost always puts its low end at the
end of the first quarter right now, back at the charts, Yeah,
and we are now in the second quarter. All right, Well, interesting
times ahead. Anything else that you're looking at, anything else you're doing planning,
because there's going to be turmoil, going to be complete and utter chaos
throughout the markets, throughout the world. We're heading towards it. It's obvious
any that you personally are doing to prepare for the inevitable. Well, I
own silver and gold coin, saying joke, silver and bullion, and you
know, I even have some pieces on my desk right here, so you
know, I always tell everybody you know, you have to that's how you
prepare a little bit. I mean, I don't think it's going to save
us ultimately, but what I do think it's going to help us out for
a little while. So I would definitely have some of that available and you
get a pullback, I would tell everybody, you know, go out there
and get yourself a little bit of silver. It's not going to hurt you.
And if you don't ever use it, you give it to children.
Yeah, And this is what I keep on my desk right here, so
always as a reminder that the that the real wealth and the world comes from
the ground. I mean, the intellectual property has value, no question,
but ultimately all wealth comes from the ground. That's right. And you know,
we're moving into such a wild time carry with all this AI craze,
right, I mean, you can't I care for walk ten feet without somebody
asking me about AI. And you know, it's it's almost like a hysteria.
Reminds me a little bit of the dot com bubble, But it's really
just getting started because these these computer modules or what do you call them,
artificial intelligent projects there, they get smarter and smarter, right, They just
keep you know, the more memory give them, they can just do so
many things. But in my opinion, they're never gonna outsmart the man.
And you know where the creation. You know, these things are being created,
and you know they're still just a glorify fight algorithm in my opinion,
they do some incredible stuff and they're going to take over a lot of jobs
out there. I even saw post where Wendy's is going to get rid of
the drive through guy over there answering and AI is now taking it over.
So you know, get ready for that paradigm shift where you're going to see
a lot of a lot of jobs go by the wayside because of this new
AI technology. And I don't know, you know where this country thinks or
where this world thinks they're going to, you know, get people to work,
you know, so you have to think outside the box now, and
it might be time to own some precious metals because things can get very very
crazy in the world if you have massive unemployment. Yeah, yeah, no
doubt. And that's the big fear. Too many people out of work in
China, too many people out of work in the United States, in Europe,
and it's a recipe for chaos for sure. So having some precious metals
is always a good idea, but especially now, and if you get in
it. You can't always get in at the bottom unless you're a trader like
Nick, and you can't always get out at the top. But you don't
need to. They don't need to, So all right, Well, hey,
I appreciate your perspective. We'd like to check in with you every so
often besides the regular show and see your take on things and well, interesting
times ahead. As the Chinese proverb goes, may you live in interesting times?
Well, we're beyond interesting here, that's for sure. And make sure
you go over to nick site in the Mooneystocks dot com link in the show
notes and see always beaten the averages for decades. The Twitter feeds at ims
at Nick Santiago zero one at carry Lutz. Emails are welcome, Kale at
Kerry LUTs dot com. Nick, we will talk to you again soon.
Sounds good, Jerry, Thank you, thanks for listening to carry Lutz's Financial
Survival Network, your solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go
to Financial Survival Network dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than ever,