What is kracklak in Hardwin Knox listeners, I am Damn Valley coming at you
without my fantabulous pillows. To Adam Cromwell, I am, however, super
pleased and excited to be joined by longtime friend and colleague Brian to Porek.
He is a senior quality editor at Bleacher Report, where I also worked.
He also is the co host of the NBA Podcast. Follow them on Twitter
at the NBA Pod, Him and more do a great job. Throw them
some ratings, reviews and subscriptions wherever you're getting your pods. And he also
writes about the NBA and the salary cap and the Sixers over at Forbes Sports.
Follow him on Twitter at b to Porek. That's at BT O p
O r e K. We are here to do our deep dives into the
first round of twenty two NBA Playoffs. I'm trying something different. I'm splitting
this up into three series of piece per podcast because we went over two hours,
so I'm going to give you about two one hour long podcast. They'll
be a little bit longer than that to digest. We're releasing the first one
on Thursday. We'll release the other one on Friday. We will also have
something on the final two series, which will be determined on Friday, either
late Friday night or up Saturday morning. We didn't go in any particular order
here based on the schedule because I didn't know I was going to split it
into two podcasts. But I think this is the best way. I have
timestamps check those out in the pod descriptions, but I just think that this
makes it more consumable. Let me know if you would prefer in the future
me to release them all at once, but I thought this was a good
thing to try. That's enough rambling, but I do want to get to
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I am exhausted from this, but my caffeine pride is using. We're gonna
get to the MAVs Versus Jazz, the Bucks and the Bulls, and the
Grizzlies Timberwolve series in this podcast. The other three series will be in the
other one. If you're already the sneak fish might want to check your feet
and see if that one's already dropped. But let's go playoff deep jobs with
Bryan to poor right the hell? Now, let's start with Chicago and Milwaukee.
That feels I think like the most fatal complete first round series that we
have. Yeah, Vega Siddes would agree with that, because the Bucks are
just so enormously heavily favored, and it's hard to see a pathway for the
Bulls to win this one, especially with Lonzo has been declared out for the
rest of the season. And you know, I do want to push back
against the whole like Bulls or Fraud's narrative that seems to be popping up,
because they were really good for the first half of the season and then you
know, Lonzo and Caruso got hurt and their defense just got long the Smithens
and they just haven't been able to find their footing since. Yeah, and
yeah, that's not First of all, did anyone have them winning forty six
games during the regular season. I think consensus, at least naturally was that
the Damars Rosen trade was a mistake, Like they were gonna be not even
paper Tigers, and I'd be curious to see where they were if Alonzo Ball
and Alex Caruso never get injured that at the same time, And I don't
mean to sound like an asshole by saying this, I don't know what the
pathway to them winning this series is. And you're not only missing Lonzo Ball,
but Alex Caruso closed to the regular season dealing with some back stuff.
You showed moments from what I saw during the regular season where it looked like
you were capable of defending Janniss at the kumpo, But it's just like,
how do you do that over the course of a season, and now when
your personnel is sort of dwindling. Having Patrick Williams might help. I'm just
that might be my biggest question. Actually, it's like what is the pathway
to Chicago winning this series? I think my bigger, like if we we're
going to go more granular question is like, what do they do or do
they try anything with the Booch minutes just because this doesn't seem like a great
matchup for him unless the Bucks are going to play Chris Middleton a shit ton
and we know that, like there's you don't you don't want to get to
a point where you're relying on Tristan Thompson too much. Is Derek Jones junior
at the five going to be an option? And so I just feel like
they start to run out of bodies That makes sense for this matchup pretty quickly.
Yeah, I mean, I think we see this a lot where you
know, personnel and specific matchups are what dictate playoff series. And we'll get
to a couple others later where I think that's really going to be a factor
and who we're picking to win the overall series, Like one team might be
more talented, but they might just be a horrible matchup for another team.
Now, the Bucks, of course, are more talented than the Bulls and
are a horrible matchup. So I'm with you. It's just really hard,
you know, unless ya honest God Forbid gets hurt in Game one, It's
hard to see a pathway for the Bulls to win this series because they just
don't have an answer for him, or at least not a readily apparent one.
And if you're doubling him, he's too good of a passer. He'll
pick you apart. And the Bucks have too many shooters. Yeah, but
I don't think they can stop him getting to the rim. I don't think
they have the personnel to even build that well. And I think, you
know, it seems like a lot of both fans are down on Vooch in
general. I think after this series there, you know, the Voote for
Rudy Gobert trade ideas that have been bubbling up are going to be screaming loud.
Rough season for him. I still think he's just like a really smart
decision maker overall, and as someone who's like a vessel through which the ball
can get somewhere else. But you also needed him to be higher end on
offense. And someone pointed this out in our discord. But like, when
you look at his efficiency, it was way more line this season relative to
his career than whatever he did last season was. And he he look,
he finished the regular season shooting the ball fairly well over thirty eight percent from
three. But I'm with you on all those points. And the other thing
is, I'm so by the way, I'm so not used to looking at
season long numbers anymore because I try and break down things in segments so that
I'm not like missing the smaller picture, but we have to look at the
entire picture of the season. It's not like the Bulls are gonna outshoot the
Bucks on most night, dead last in three point at tempt rate, and
that's just look, demarta Osen has been fantastic, but like that's if you
get behind or if you just need to build big leads, that's sort of
a way that you can do that. And their offense really isn't run that
way. And then sort of looming over all this is just like he's playing,
but like what does zach Lavine's need going to like like like that's just
like this team is just so banged up, and he was I think you
could see him in some of the games towards the talent end of the year
year where it felt like it was impacting him. He was still just really
good. But we're getting to a point where I just I'm running out of
I can't even just tabbom ways in which the aside from the catastrophic which I
refused to get into, just how does the team win this series? And
so I tend to focus on the front court rotation, but you're gonna need
you know, made like is this h I guess the thing their pathway would
be. As I stumble through this winning the reserve minutes where we have the
staggering between Yannis, Chris and Drew because Milwaukee's not exactly like a billboard for
depth at this point either, and so like, what is ever going on
with George Hill. I feel like he's had at least one trillion issues this
season that there's never like a concrete prognosis for what he's having. I do
think it's good, really good for them that brook Lopez came back before the
year ended, but just just like you know, I'm worried about their front
court. And then it's if you don't want to go to Yanna at the
five because he played a bunch during the regular season, just a buya portus
and even brook Lopez like those aren't unwinnable matchups, then for Chicago, I
like, or rather I hate this series a lot less for them if we
just barely see or we only see Yannis at the five and sort of these
small measured reserved doses. Yeah, I mean, I think the Bulls have
a couple problems in this series. The Bucks personnel just matches up well defensively
against them, so you can put Drew Holiday on Zach Lavine, who you
mentioned is just not one hundred percent right now, and I think now Zach's
gonna get his but maybe not as efficiently or as dynamically as he usually does.
You can switch between Drew Chris and Jannis on mar De Rozen at times,
so you can throw different looks at him throughout the course of a game
and throughout the course of the series. And if those two guys aren't going
like, you're gonna need Booch to score twenty five to thirty, which is
just not going to happen most nights. And you know Lopez sure, they're
gonna probably continue playing the drop with him. So maybe Vouch just gets really
hot from three one night, but can you do it four times and seven
games? I don't know. And then you're right, like the depth for
the Bucks is not robust. They're not going ten deep. But you know,
the Bucks, unlike a couple other teams that are going into the playoffs,
having already been playing their guys thirty seven, thirty eight, thirty nine
minutes a night, like you know, Jannis Drew Chris all played between thirty
two and thirty three at night, and they're the only guys who played above
thirty, so you know, I know it's a joke. Is even after
but finally figured out that you can play your stars more minutes in the playoffs
last year, Like maybe let's hope he remembers that lesson because it resulted in
a title. But you know, they might not even have to in this
series, like they might be able to continue managing their minutes and saving them
for the second round, which you know, they get the winner of Boston
Brooklyn and they're they're gonna be their guys, their stars to play heavy minutes
in that series, and look, I don't want to be this guy.
But there's also just the notion of demartrozen since twenty and sixteen seventeen has about
a fifty seven true shooting during the regular season that drops to fifty three in
the playoffs. Like he's had his issues where that type of style doesn't work.
I don't know if it's different with this Bulls team because you have if
Zach Lavine is fully healthy and you have ioed to to move and do things
running off the ball, and if Kobe White is healthy, like there are
a ton of outlets there, but I'm just wondering if the Bulls will be
able to mandate pace or style as much. And then I'm sure or I
know this is personnel driven and like how they got unlucky with injuries, but
the Bulls are so bad in defense on live balls, they're twenty seventh and
points about per possession after a defensive rebound. The Bucks have the fastest offense
in the NBA by average possession time. This just feels like a very combustible
cocktail that is not going to explode in favor of the Bulls. Yeah yeah,
I mean I would be pleasantly surprised if they even get it to five.
Like I didn't even get to your X factor yet and you're already giving
them the gentleman sweet. I mean, I woun't even know if I like
it. It might just be an outright sweet like the Bulls have just been.
They ran out of gas this year, and injuries are a large reason
why. But even if they were fully healthy, I would not take them
in this series. Like that's just how bad of a matchup Milwaukee is for
them. But you raised a fair point earlier. If they were fully healthy,
they probably finished as a two seat and they don't have to worry about
this. Yeah, I guess the pathway or not stop saying pathway, but
the fact that the Buck's defense has just been sort of spotty over the second
half of the season, and maybe that tilts the Bulls in their favor.
Who is your Who's your X factor for the Bulls in this series? Probably
Booch, just because I think he is the one guy who if he is
playing well on both ends of the floor, if he can contain Jannis and
you know not just give him a full layup line every time he drives in
transition, if he is knocking down his threes. You know, we shot
thirty one point four percent from three on the season, which is much lower
than he has in recent years. You know, like DeRozan and Lavine,
you know, they're going to have to be the main focal points of the
Polls offense and what Milwaukee's going to try to shut down defensively. So I
said it earlier like they might need Booch to be the highest scoring player on
this team to have a chance in the series. And I am skeptical that
that is going to happen. I think that's a good pick, and I
was going to pick the same person, So I'm just gonna stick up that's
terrible podcasting. But if I had to nominate someone else, I would say
it's Patrick Williams just because I think he sees the most time on Jannie out
of everybody. Individuals would be like, yeah, man, he's given up
a lot of size. To be honest, who else are you thrown at
him? DeVante Green? They don't, that's they just don't have a good
answer. That's part of the problem with this series, Like they don't have
super tall rotation players. Currently, Tristan Thompson is thinking that it's Tristan Thompson
time, right, Tony Bradley. Are we gonna see it Tony Bradley Revenge
Series? I don't know, there's they just I mean, no team in
the NBA has a good answer for Yannis, to be clear, Like this
is not just an isolated Bulls problem here. There are very few teams that
can even remotely slow him down. But you know, unfortunately, we also
know that Jannie does not know how to take games or possessions off. And
I say unfortunately unfortunately for the Bulls, fortunately for any fans in general.
But like this is this just projected as Jannis just destroying them over and over
again and them having absolutely no way to stuff. I don't want to veer
too far into the hypothetical and nonsensical. Would you have felt better about the
Bulls chances in this series had they made the Jeremy Grand or Harrison Range trade
in the deadline? No, I mean again, if Lonzo was fully healthy,
sure, then I still don't think I would pick them against Milwaukee,
though, And I you know, I wonder how much that did factor into
their thinking at the deadline, like they might have seen, Okay, you
know, Milwaukee looks vulnerable right now, but if they get Lopez back,
like we, we still don't have a great answer against Janas here. And
you know, at the time, I'm sure they were hoping to get a
Lonzo back and healthy at some point, because I don't think it was clear,
you know, at the trade deadline that he would not play again this
season, but he probably did have to hedge against that possibility. So I'm
you know, I'm frankly glad for their sake that they didn't make dead trade,
that they still have that in their chamber either this summer at next year's
trade deadline, and now we can see you know how Patrick Williams fits with
this group too. I'm totally with you. I think there's almost the stuff
we're saying. I feel like nowadates their decision to not do something size make
at the deadline. Who's your next factor for the Bocks in this series A
good question and wondering who he's gonna injure, who's gonna nime and knock out
for the rest of the series. I mean, I don't even like,
is it a cop out to say that I don't even know that they need
the next factor because I just think their top three guys have such an advantage
in this series. Like an X factor to me is someone who can swing
a series one way or another, would swing a game one right or another.
It's like, I don't know that they need that. I mean,
maybe Wesley Matthews just so that they can, you know, spare Drew and
Chris from having to shoulder so much defensive responsibility on Zach and DeMar So if
if West can you know, spot those guys and like Drew can spend some
time on Alex Carusoe or do soon move or something like that. Maybe,
But like I no, I again, the series feels so lapsided. It's
like, solve the Jannas problem first, and then at that point I will
consider, Okay, maybe the Bucks need to plan b I'm was just gonna
go with Brook Lopez for this because I feel like I still haven't seen enough
of him. He plays in ten games over the regular season, whatever it
was, and if he's gonna be able to give you like he ends up
averaging like in the mid twenties. If he's able to give you that,
I think that without an issue, like without getting injured or he's like,
does Boos give him any problems? I can't imagine it. I'm just saying,
if you're able to do that, it gives you so much more optionality
in the front court because it can technically diminish your dependence on Bobby Portis,
who's been a fairly streaky shooter of late. And we know that the Bulls,
I don't know that they're the team that's gonna like hunt down these mismatches
and go after guys. And I think Bobby Porters has been better when he's
in space this season and even towards the tail end of last year. But
if it limits the time you have to play Bobby Portis or in limits the
amount of time that you have to go to Jhanness at the five because maybe
you don't want to. I think the Bulls will give you. I look,
if Tristan Thompson's at the five, you shouldn't be afraid of sending you
Honest the five. It's just a different type of matchup than if you're throwing
him against like convention more conventional Biggs or stronger, more explosive Biggs. But
brook Lopez can almost set the tone for that set of rotation all series.
I did think about in the similar vein of Wesley Matthews, of Pat Connaughton,
of just like respite or reprieve? Can he give Middleton and Drew Holiday
and even jannest from some of the Bulls tougher assignments. But I'm also just
like I don't want to, like is a half hobbled zach Lavine and then
DeMar Derosen who operates like at this methodical pace? Is that really gonna overwhelm
Drew and Chris Middleton. So I settled on brook Lopez, But yeah,
they were tough for me as well. What's your actual predict for this series.
I think you already keep your hand there. I think I'm going on
full sweep. I don't even know if it's going to be a gentleman sweep.
I think it's just Bucks and four. I'm going Bulls in five because
Milwaukee's defense has been just all over the place for so much of this season,
and maybe they're just like, look, if there's a team the East
that's just going to flip a switch, it's not the Nets, it's the
Bucks. Like that's the team that can flip the switch. So I feel
like this is the cowards pick Bucks in five. But I am a coward,
So maybe I'm just trying to disrespect my podcast co host, who is
a Bulls fan and he's at least realistic and knows that the season ran off
the rails in early January. But you know, I think, regardless of
how this series ends, this, you know, the first half of the
season, it was validation for Bulls fans that, you know, the overreaction
to DeMar De Roses contract in particular, and like the whole sign and trade
in general turned out to be just that it ended up being a very good
move. You know, Patrick Williams is only going to get better with more
experience, and you know, we'll see what happens with Lavine this summer,
but he's given no indication that he's seriously considering moving on. So I think
the Bulls are going to be right back in this mix next year, and
hopefully they can stay a little healthier. Let's do Grizzlies Timberwolves, which I'm
infinitely interested to watch, is sort of two teams on the come up that
I guess that the Timberwolves basically met expectations to see. They probably seeded them
a little bit, but the Grizzlies obliterated them. I even said on the
last podcast with I forget what's recording with it, I'm never picking a Grizzlies
over Under again because I'm just gonna be fucking wrong. I'm the inverse whatever
that team is actually doing. I'm putting it here because I actually don't know
that it's going to be as competitive as some people are painting it out to
be. And I'm just curious as your initial thoughts on the Timberwolves Grizzlies matchup
or Patrick Beverly's Revenge Tour Part two after beating the Clippers. Yeah, it's
it's hard to get a read on this series because these teams just feel like
they're going to present a bunch of matchup problems for one another, and you
know, as seeing how they adjust mid series is going to be really interesting,
Like, you know, do they have to start KATV to just you
know, continue shutting down John Moriann or trying to do their best to shut
down John Moran, or do they keep going with you know, Van do
and McDaniels and then Edwards, Towns Russell. Memphis at least has some defensive
personnel, particularly Dylan Brooks, who you figure is probably going to go on
Anthony Edwards at first, But like, how does Jock contain Daniel Russell if
that's the matchup? Where does Desmond Vane go? How you know, are
they going to try to stretch out Steven Adams with Karl Anthony Towns, which
is Jaren Jackson Jr. Go on Towns to see have the size to contend
with Towns in the post like they're there has There's a lot of mismatched potential
here on both sides, which should make a really entertaining series, I hope.
Yeah. I think the main concern and my biggest question for this series.
I'm very interested to see how Memphis's offense translates to the postseason, and
maybe the Timberwolves aren't the perfect opponent to test this out, but just a
team that relies on getting out in transition, hitting the offensive glass, and
then having John Moran basically with these moments sprinkled in from Jaren Jackson junior on
the ball Desmond made and all that, it doesn't feel postseason proof. I'm
wondering if this is like the team to test it out against. I know
Minnesota's defense has been it's been up and down like kind of all year,
and they're not the best in the half court, and so maybe that's the
team to sort of go up against in this situation. But I'm just very
curious when you look at like Memphis is so deep, and I do think
one of the things that we underrate leading into the postseason is depth. And
we kind of just inadvertently touched upon why when you look at when you look
at like what's going on with the bulls and the box and certain instances,
Minnesota has done a great job getting back in transition after they make mistakes,
but when they're missing shots, like that's Memphis's opportunity to get out and run,
and I would expect them to seize every chance they get to do that.
I'm still just the overarching style is something that is my biggest question,
Like it's one of the biggest questions of the playoffs for me, not even
my biggest question of this series. Yeah, I mean, I'm fascinated because
you know, you mentioned like Memphis loves to get out and run. Both
of these teams actually rank really high in terms of an opponent turnovers, so
you know, I think Minnesota was third in steals per game and let the
league and opponent turnovers. Memphis the first in skills per game and third and
opponent turnovers. So both teams like to get out and run, So you
know, I guess it's like, you know, with certain matchups as to
which team can impose their style upon the other. Both of these teams kind
of like to play the same style, so it might not be, you
know, who could impose their style up on the other, it's just who
can play their style better than the opponent, Who can be more careful with
the ball, who can, as you mentioned, who can attack the glass
to the extent that you know they typically do. Memphis led the league in
offensive rebounds. Minnesota is pretty good on the offensive glass, not as great
on the defensive, so that seems like an area of potential concern for them,
especially, you know, given the size that Memphis has in their front
court. Do you think? And I guess, And if you have another
I didn't ask you if you had any big questions about the last series,
So if you have a big, big defining question, please throw it out
there. But I was gonna you mention this about Towns. We saw in
We saw in the matchups that I saw between these teams there was a lot
of Jaren Jackson Junior on Coom Anthony Towns. Do you think that persuades the
Grizzlies to tilt towards more triple J at the five, especially in this setting?
Or do you think I love Jade McDaniels, I love Jared Vanderbilt,
but did those actually give you a way to work having two bigs like one
of them being Steven Adams, who has not been a liability this year.
I was wrong on the Steven Adams trade. Grizzlies fans have been on me
about it all year. I'm not saying that he's liability. It's just stylistically,
if Towns is not the version of Towns we saw on the playing game
against the Clippers, he is absolutely obliterating everybody in his path and the versatility
he gives you from the outside in. I do think it would at least
be tempting to lean more heavily than you have this season on Triple J at
the five lineups. I'm just curious to your thoughts on there. Yeah,
I mean, I wouldn't be surprised if we see that throughout the course of
the game. I'm guessing they stick with the two bigs to start, and
start Jaren Jackson on Towns and then hide Steven Adams on Vando, who is
just not a three point threat at all. You know, probably have him
like Sag halfway between the three point line and Van Doos hanging out there,
which I don't even know if he is. I think you could probably just
completely ignore him if he is, because he's such a non threat from that
area, and then just have Steven Adams camping out post to the basket,
because I do think, you know, I don't know if Jaren Jackson has
the size to contend with Towns if he's posting up right, I mean,
he is far more versatile defensively, and if he's out on the perimeter,
that's exactly where you want Jaren Jackson to be guarding him. And you know,
we saw the Clippers had a lot of success with smaller guys on Towns,
Like they really frustrated him with like their NonStop bevy of six eight to
sixty nine wings. So you know, the Grizzlies don't have a ton of
options on that front. But like maybe we do see a little bit of
I don't know, Kyle Anderson guarding Towns at times, just throwing him different
looks Like I would be surprised if we see a lot of Steven Adams on
him, because that feels like that's one where you're just going to try to
draw him out, you know, space Towns to the permimeter and draw Adams
out away from the basket. Yeah. I could see even like Brandon Clark
or maybe a like Well depends on it depends on whether they're going to play
him, but I could see them like trying as I or Williams on town
Yeah they wanted to as well. Yeah, No, I was gonna like
they they have they have options, and I think one thing that's been really
great and one reason that Taylor Jenkins that finds himself in the coach of the
Year conversation is that they have a bit afraid to experiment this season. So
like, I think, no, this isn't going to be a major coaching
mismatch on either side. I think both guys have been pretty creative with their
usage and their personnel distribution this year. So like, I think this is
going to be one of the more entertaining first round series. Yeah, and
as we're going through it, I'm almost less sure of my what I thought
would be just inevitability from the Grizzlies that, Yeah, because you really dig
into the details of Minnesota's offense fourth and half court offense since the trade deadline,
Anthy Edwards has like a step back three arsenal now and he's so strong
once he gets going downhill. D'Angel Russell is people mentioned this already, but
he is quietly had like a great season. I know you look at his
numbers and it doesn't feel that way, but he just feels like a player
who has leveled up his IQ and his ability to scale his skill set into
all these different types of lineups, and that could in theory, like the
way that Memphis defends, it's not really built on individuality in any way that
they have Dylan Brooks, So it's just Dylan Brooks. You go chase one
of those guys around at any given point. But then it's how do you
divvy up those assignments? Like who is it Desmond Bane then is going to
get the other one? Who are we seeing? Like who are the two
most important defenders one of the Grizzlies in this series? On the primiter because
I know Janet Jackson Jr. In the Defensive Player of the Year discussion,
he made my all on All Defense first team. Who's the second most important
defender for Memphis this series? I mean just in terms of how often or
like in terms of minutes distribution, It's probably going to be Desmond Vane.
But I think you know, de Anthony Melton's probably going to get some time
on probably more Russell than Edwards. I mean, you know the problem for
really both of those guys is that like Edwards is what six four, but
he is big and strong? Yeah yeah, and like Russell is you know,
not nearly as he's six four as well, but he's not nearly as
big, So I think Melton has a much better chance against against Russell than
he does Edwards. And we saw, you know, a couple of years
ago in that Net Sixers first round series, like Ben Simmons just completely erased
D'Angel Russell from existence. So I think there is some concern about that.
But I don't know that the Grizzlies have someone who can like maybe Zaire Williams
on Russell at times, like it's it's just going to be so interesting to
see how they deploy their personnel and who matches up with who because they have
so many options, and like, yeah, I mean I think if if
when they start off, I'm gonna guess I'll be Brooks on Edwards probably being
on Russell and then on Beverly just because you're not super afraid of Patrick Beverley
offensively, and then that maybe is a way for Jah to preserve more of
his energy for offense. But then yeah, once you start, you know,
bringing in some of these bench guys, like everything goes out the window.
Who knows You're going to see a lot of cross matching. I think
I'm curious. I feel like the Grizzlies might see an opportunity to use in
certain spots or won't be afraid to put Desmond Bain or John Morant on D'Angelo
Russell, just because he doesn't play it like hyper speed. Yet they have
the requisite personnel to where if you want to attack those guys off screens.
I think Desmond Baine's gotten better there, and so was John Morant. Ever
since his first injury came back. He's been better there as well, where
it's more workable. Whereas if you put them on Anthony Edwards then yeah,
that would be the issue, and so I would agree with your sentiments there
as well. This is on the flip side of this series. Can you
guess who spent the most time defending John Morant in the entire league this year?
Oh? Well, I would venture I would hope for the tipper wolf
sake, it was Patrick Beverley. It was I kind of gave it away
there. I found it interesting just because I Perfelly missed so much time this
year, but yet he played in all four games against This is an imperfect
stat I am, at least using the team performance. He Grizzlies averaged one
point zero three points per possession when Patrick Beverley was tracked as the primary defender
on John Morant. The only thing I can say here is there is there's
the legend of Patrick Beverley, there's the hatred of Patrick Beverley, and then
there's the truth, like somewhere in the middle. Yeah, I just I'm
praying for John Morant's needs to be okay, because this is just someone who
is all over the place. I'm not even trying to like Parken back to
the Russell Westbrook trying to call a time out saying in twenty thirteen and Patrick
Beverley goes after him. He just plays such a physical style of defense.
We've seen Morant I have just dealt with a nice brain that he's not unless
I'm misremembering the injury there, that's not actually like a factor I'm thinking about
leading into this series. But that is probably to me, the most important
individual matchup, just because if Patrick Beverley does make life difficult on Morant to
where he's not hitting his shots or getting to his usual spots or just not
getting the ball or referring entirely, that really compromises the state of Memphis's offense.
Because I know they've been really good without him. But there's a difference
between like Taias Jones game manager, never turning the ball over, and then
John Morant, someone who can create something out of nothing from anywhere on the
floor. Yeah, totally. I mean that that opens the door to an
upset if Beverly. You know, I'm not gonna say he's gonna break even
with Jock, and I think John is still going to get his But if
he can keep him to a relatively inefficient night, if he can prevent him
from exploding to the basket that the way he usually does, you know it's
going to reduce the strain on Towns. Is the last line of defense too,
especially if he's I'm guessing when Adams is in, he can guard Adams.
He can put Vando on JJJ. But you know, if they're doing
these JJJ at the five lineups, Towns is going to have to drift out
to the perimeter to guard him. And then if John's on the other side
of the court and his exploded the basket, there's not gonna be enough found
to recovery. So there will be a lot of responsibility on Patrick Beverley.
But if we know Patrick Beverley. He's certainly going to I don't know if
he's going to like meet the challenge, but he's going to be up for
the challenge. My final question on this is who is more important to the
Timberwolves in this specific series, Jared Vanderbilt or Jane McDaniels. Oh man,
that's toff. I mean Vando. I'm assuming we'll continue starting, but I
mean again, like the depth of Memphis has been one of the biggest selling
points this season, as you just mentioned, especially when Joe was out,
Like they just didn't miss a beat here, whereas it like the Timberwolves have.
You know, they can go eight or nine deep, but like you
don't feel super great about it. So if vand I mean he's not going
to stretch the floor at all, but if he's such a non factor offensively
that they can hide Steven Adams on him and get away with it, I
think that's going to be an issue for the Timberwolves starting group. So I
for that reason, I lean Vando, But I mean McDaniels is going to
be a big piece off the bench, Like if they can't hold their own
in the you know bench plus starters minutes or like once they once they get
some of the starters off the floor, that's when Memphis can really start to
expand the lead. Like if you know, if the Timberwolves and Grizzly starters
played relatively even, Memphis is depth, I think is one area where you
know that's late first, early second, late third, early fourth quarter,
that's when they can start to break some games open. I'm with Jared Vanderbill
as well, who's my X factor for this series? If only because as
you mentioned that the Demolves have struggled on the defensive glass. We know what
Memphis does on the offensive glass. And if you're going to tip the scales
or at least even out those scales in your favor, they need Vanderbilt more
than they do Jade McDaniels. And I think the Grizzlies will play Steve Adams
and Jaren Jackson Junior enough to where it makes sense to have Vanderbilt on the
court when if they go to a one big lineup or just a Jaren Jackson
Junior and any other big lineup. Yeah, you could think about maybe trying
to get away with Jade McDaniels more. But I think if the Grizzlies had
like a point of attack wing like a Paul George. And we saw Jane
McDaniels get time on him in the playing game, then yeah, Jade McDaniels
is more important there, but he would be. He's actually my biggest X
factor on the Wolves. I did. I flirted with Malik Beasley a little
bit. And it's not that I couldn't talk myself into him mattering as much
in this series. It's more so just like and like, it's not you
know, yeah, if he wants to break up some of the Memphis bench
heavy units, but rotations shortens, so I'm not sure how much of like
that responsibility is going to fall on him or how much of the heavier bench
units we're going to see from Memphis in the playoffs. And so I couldn't,
like I kept just coming back to like De'angel Russell and Anthy Edwards are
going to dictate all the terms on the perimeter for Minnesota. Who was your
ex factor for this team? I mean, Beverly is the obvious one for
the defense against Job, but honestly it might be De'angelo Russell. You brought
him up earlier, like he's quietly had a very good steady season for them,
and you know when Towns was struggling to be extant that he did against
the Clippers, like here he is with twenty nine points to help build him
out along with Anthony Edwards. So you know, assuming that Brooks is on
Edwards and if Brooks can help limit edwards effectiveness, we'll see how Towns fares
against the double bigs or against you know, whichever guy he has ended up
guarding him for most of this series. If de Angelo Russell can win his
individual matchup, I think that opens the door for a Minnesota upset. Who's
your ex factor for Memphis? Can I pick like ending their entire bench?
Is that? Is that allowed? Probably Melton? I mean, he's just
been so effing good and it makes me mad that they have so many capable
bill handlers. But again, if he's you know, if he if he
winds up getting some of the Russell defensive minutes and you can help like actually
win that matchup, and then it's still going to be you know, a
guy who can run the offense whenever Jah's off the floor and never turn the
ball over, which is going to be important against a Timberwolves team that likes
to force a bunch of turnovers. If he's knocking down outside shots whenever you
know someone's passing it to him. Yeah, I think that's that's probably my
call there. What about you, I'm with Desmond Vain because I think there
are two instances. For me, you're playing with Jah, you're in the
you're in the Grizzlies best lineup if they take the ball out of his hands,
or if he just doesn't have it going, like someone else aside from
Jaren Jackson Junior is gonna need to make plays with the ball. I think
he's probably best equipped or the one that's most likely going to fall to in
this series. And then the other thing is like if we see that the
Grizzlies want to get away with some of their bench heavier rotations, especially when
you look at their perimeter personnel, just having him next to Thias Jones,
he's mission critical in my opinion of keeping then those lineups to float where Oh
Jaws not on the court and Jaren Jackson Junior is But like, if you
have Thias Jones, it's just different from having John Morant there. And perhaps
Dylan Brooks fancies himself everything that I'm talking about, right, I just think
that Desmond Maine is more equipped to do it, and just given the year,
if he had like yay Peter Dodd a little bit in the middle of
the year and then like came on strong after that again, but I feel
like he's just going to be so important to this. The state of this
team's half court offense, both with and without Jaw on the floor. Yeah,
I mean they were low volume, middling efficiency point shooting team, and
you know, he was the one, very lone exception to that was shooting
forty three point six percent almost seven three point at times per game. So
if shots aren't falling for him, they yeah, the Grizzlies could find themselves
in a bit of a math problem. What is your prediction for Grizzlies.
I talked to myself in this being a closer series than I thought. Yeah,
yeah, I meant and I were talking about this a couple of weeks
ago when it started to seem like these two teams might be one another,
and we're like, man, this series is actually quld be really really fun.
I lean Grizzlies in six, but I don't feel particularly strong about it,
Like I don't think it's going to be a sweep either way. But
I could see Grizzlies in five, I could see six, I could see
seven, or I could see a Typer Bowls upset. So I think a
lot depends on you know, John miss a ton of time late in the
year. He did come back to those final regular season games, but as
you met, can he stay healthy? Is he fully one hundred percent at
this point? Especially dealing with the past like Beverly And then yeah, like,
how do each of these teams handle the individual matchup problems that the other
poses. There's a lot of variants in this series. I think I'm going
Grizzlies and six as well, But I'm at I'm where you're at right now.
I went into this discussion and in my notes of the Google doc Grizzlies
in five, Like, I just thought people over reading the Timberwolves. I
don't know if I'm reading too much into what they showed against the Clippers after
Towns found out if you start to dig into the individual matchups, and it's
just my huge question of how does Memphis's offense translate to the postseason still looms.
I'm picking them anyway. Maybe that's an insult to Karl Anthony Towns.
I just I hate one game referendums in the NBA because there are so many
games. But like, he did not do himself any favors in that the
Clippers playing game. But you also have to assume that he's going his default
is going to be closer to his world beating performances for most of this season
and anything drastic there. And so like if Karnathy Towns is having a huge
series, yeah, you have Jared Jackson, and you're like, I don't
necessarily know what Memphis. His answer is to that, like you when you
go to the top of the roster Minnesota, between Anthie Edwards and Angel rush
On and Clonothy town just has a lot more overall offensive talent. So one
of my most intriguing series that I thought initially that the Grizzlies were just going
to roll through. Let's do Utah Dallas, which the caveat here is Luca
Donch has that high ankle's brain or straight left calf, excuse me, and
the MAVs have not as of this recording, announced money he's gonna be back,
or a timetable for his return. He's basically been listed as day to
day which seems you know, part and parcel of this type of injury instre
closed. Jeff Stotts had talked about like players have returned in as little as
three days, and then the Mavericks dealt with I can't remember who he said
on the roster had this similar injury this season, but they missed like twelve
or fourteen days or whatever it was. As long as it's not extensive,
like I would, I'd be shocked if Luca isn't playing in game one.
I'd be really shocked if he wasn't playing by by game two. And so
with the specter of his injury looming over the series, like, what are
just your overarching thoughts here? Yeah, I mean that is the big question.
And I like perhaps the Vegas for having a line out right now on
this series, because I'd be terrified to make a prediction or bet on this
not knowing if or when Luca's going to come back. It's like it is
simple enough to say if he misses the whole series, or if he misses
even a couple of games of this series, that swings it heavily in Utah's
favor. But if he's you know, there in game one and you know
the good thing about his game is that he's not overly reliant. He's not
John Marette, not overly reliant on his athleticism or his explosiveness, Like he's
gonna kind of lumper his way in the basket anyway. So if he can
continue to do that, that makes this, you know, I think much
more of a toss up than what the current lines would suggest to Utah is
a decent favorite in the series, but I think that is factoring in the
possibility of Luca missing somewhere all of it. Yeah, I mean his ankle,
are keep wanting an ankle? Where's their own? With me? His
cashtrain is clearly the biggest question in the series. My actual I'm going to
just assume that the Mavericks are at full strength at some point. My biggest
question is is this team, even though they have Luca, maybe not built
to exploit the Jazz's defense as much as other teams would be. And that's
I'm not taking a pot shot against Golbert. It's just that where the Jazz
have struggled the two areas we're looking at, it's just athleticism and so Rudy
Gobert is so much responsibility because guys can't because guys in the primer can't stay
in front of their other guys, or if you want to bring him higher,
he's fully capable of doing that. They also just don't have like the
players behind him as help rim protectors that allow them to do that. The
other thing though, is that they can be beaten in transition, like off
of Missus like they can be and especially off of Turner, but off of
Missus they can be beaten in transition. I would argue because it's not Rudy
Gobert's primary like if you want him to be under the glass at all,
or if he's gonna be so close to the basket, it's gonna be harder
for him to get back than all the other guys. The Mavericks, even
post trade deadline, like, this is not a team that's not going to
get out in transition, and so I'm just wondering if that gives them more
time to sort of set up Utah, to set up their defense. And
whereas if this were a Clippers team that could play smaller, or if it
were just if it were if it was a Minnesota team, if it was
the Warriors, they're just all these other teams that I think might be better
equipped to exacerbate our biggest concerns about the Jazz. And I'm almost I don't
know if that tip, like, if that should make the Jazz favorites in
this series. Even if Luke is playing, we know that he's going to
get into the half court and he will just pick them apart at points.
There's just like if they're set, like there's just so much of a difference
there for them. Yeah, I just looked it up. The Jazz.
Sorry, the Mavericks were twenty nine in frequency of transition opportunities throughout the regular
season. They were, they climbed all the way to twenty six. They
after the trade inline though, oh wow, But yeah, they were tied
with Houston for a dead last. So it's a good shout there. And
you're right, I mean, I think, you know, what we've seen
foil the Jazz in recent postseasons probably won't be as much of a factor in
this series as it would be, you know, presuming that the Suns move
on in a potential second round series for them, where I would have great
concern over their ability to corral Chris Paul, Devin Booker Mchael Bridges, so
on and so forth. You know, the Mavericks do have that guard trio
of Don Hitch, Jalen Brentson and Spencer Didn't Winnie now. But again,
like Dinwitty is also not an explosive athlete who's going to you know, roast
you off the dribble and like be past Gobert by the time he has a
chance to rotate back over like I would think he would have time to get
back into position by the time Spencer didn when he got into the basket.
Brunson is probably the big concern there. I do wonder if the Jazz have
the personnel to contain Luca, and I think that's probably the biggest concern on
their part. You know, Royce O'Neill is six four to twenty six,
so he's going to be giving up a couple inches on Luca and Lloyd Nose.
Luca is not afraid to shoot those step back threes at a moment's notice.
You know, Mitchell and Conley are both six one. Boyan mcdonovich is
not anyone's idea of a wing stopper. So you know, Rudy Gay has
been in an out of the rotation like maybe it's a Daniel House series,
Like that might be other than Royce O'Neill Daniel House. It might be Utah's
best option against Luca, which is kind of scary. Yeah, I mean,
I wouldn't disagree with you because if you had to ask me who spends
the second largest share of possessions guarding Luca at this point on the Jazz,
I'm gonna pick Daniel House. It can't be Conley or Mitchell. You don't
want it to be Boya Madonovich. It definitely can't be Jordan Clarkson. So
yeah, I think like this this is a Daniel House series, and so
far as they can be a Daniel House series, because this is Daniel House
series. And to be fair, like he did give utahsom like s fifty
minutes they picked them up. But that's just like if we're talking, it's
just we're back to the discussion of should they have stood basically pat at the
deadline or done more than just aim for tax savings, And the answer is
yeah, they should have done more than that. I'm I'm like simultaneously shocked.
I looked up before we were doing this, how many possessions of the
Mavericks have rolled out their three guards together and it was two hundred and twenty
six possessions, which was higher than I expected, but like still too low
for me. And I'm just like, if you went to that look,
if you're Dallas, and yeah, there's the issue of rounding out the rest
of the lineup. You're probably going with Phinney Smith is definitely in every single
one of those looks, and then I'm assuming you'll just go Kleeba or Powell
to have and an actual big I don't know if you're you're not brazen enough
to go with Dorian Finny Smith and Reggie Bullock, like the Jazz are gonna
everybody Gobert on the court for ninety eight percent of this series? How does
if you went to that though, Like the individual matchups start to get even
more difficult for you job because it's O'Neil on Luca. I guess you put
House on Brunson or would it be Dinwitty, like he's on one of those
two, and then it's like, okay, who is Maybe you put him
on Brunson because Brunson's so much quicker than then Witty, And then it's oh,
okay, like Donovan Mitchell or Conley or Boyan Bodonovitch has to chase arounds,
but like Bens or Dinwoody, I don't know. Maybe Conley's capable of
handling the Dinwoody assignment, and so perhaps I'm overstating this significance of if the
Mavericks decided to go to this three guard look. But I think that's one
way that they could make Utah really uncomfortable in this series, given that they
don't have the typical small ball lineups that could do the same like other teams
doing. Again, I want to make it clear, I don't think Rudy
Gobert is the issue in a small ball lineups. It's pretty much everything else
about the Jazz that is the issue. Yeah, right, correct, And
I agree with you if that would not Like you know, there's always like
one big, big series adjustment, especially for a team that's like down two,
one h three. Oh. I think that is the obvious one for
Dallas to try to make. That's it. I mean, if Reggie Bullock
is knocking down his shots, I know he's been somewhat inconsistent this year,
like he is going to get the starting nod at the start of the series
next to Brunson and you know knock on Wood next to Luca as well,
assuming health. But yeah, I mean I think the more ball handlers you
have on the floor, especially against the Jazz team that really struggles to contain
the dribble, the better off you're going to be. How do you feel
about this series from a Donovan Mitchell perspective, I mean, you go back
to it feels similar to Memphis Minnesota where it's like both teams just don't really
have a ton of great answers against and either of their other stars. So
like, you know, go back to if we're assuming Brunson, Bullock,
don Finny Smith, Powell are starting, like I'm assuming Finney Smith gets the
Mitchell assignment because there just isn't another great option in that's starting five. I
think I have to agree with you there when you play Finny Smith and Bullock
together, Bullock could do it, like he defends a lot of smaller guards,
But Dorian Finney Smith is the type of defender where I didn't mention him
as a honorable mentions when we did her all defense, and I should have,
Like he's the guy that's just like whoever the best player on the other
team is short of them being maybe a center just Dory Finny Smith go guard
them right right right. And part of it's out of necessity too, because
they just don't really have with all due respect to your boy Frankie Smokes,
they like they don't have the personnel to they don't have that like lockdown wing
defender on this roster other than him, or like a lockdown guard defender.
You know, they all have a Patrick Beverley or Marcus Smart on this team.
Like it is all right, Finney Smith or bust Thank you for actualizing
what I was thinking that this is a Frankie Smoke series. Definitely kind of
series. If there if there ever was one anything we missed or any other
bigger questions that you have before I ask you about your ex factors. I
mean, this is just an overall general question about Utah, but given all
that has happened with them throughout the season, throughout the last couple of years,
I do wonder either the weight of expectations are going to be hanging over
them, and maybe that is the X factor if we're we're going into the
more intangible. But I'm also curious, like you know, Quinn Styder just
gave a nineteen minute soliloquy the other day about you know, this this concert
about Donovan Mitchell not passing to Rudy Gobert or them not utilizing Rudy Gobert offensively,
but they lunch together. It's fine sometimes, But you know, I
like, if they lose this first round series, especially if Luca has hobbled,
you have to figure big changes are coming to Utah this summer. So
I'm curious, especially because like, if they're gonna pick between the two,
they're probably keeping Donovan and trading Rudy. So like, does Rudy go into
this series knowing it might be his last stand in Utah, and does he
look to assert himself more offensively than he has recently, Because you know,
Powell and Cleber with six ten, but Gobet's gonna have a high advantage over
both of them. So if they can find him, like, if they
can utilize him more. You know, I'm not saying they should be running
like twenty post ups Rudy Gobert or anything like that, but if he establishes
really deep post position and all he has to do is turn around and like
reach over these guys, can they actually take advantage of that. I was
actually gonna ask that was my like kind of my last question here is is
this a Rudy Gobert series? Because I think on offense they don't really have
anyone that could stop what he's gonna do on screen and dives. This data
is skewed because the MAVs chain overhauled at Roster in the middle of the season.
Rudy Bear's in seventy nine point four true shooting against the MAVs. You
know where most of those shots are coming from. Doesn't get any easier if
it's gonna be a you know what, Dwight Powell has some balance to him,
and Max and Kleiba's all over the place. It's just having to task
them with guarding Rudy Gobert in pick and rolls Like no, like, that's
not I don't know how much I would trust that. On the flip side,
though, if you wanted to make the Jazz further uncomfortable. And one
of these is realistic, Maxiliba as you're big, just as someone who does
have a little bit of a pump and drive game, and ken'space the floor,
But also is this a and I'm I'm This is tongue in cheek a
little bit because I know he hasn't played a ton, but is this a
Davias Burton's series because of the motion shooting he provides you where if you just
test that out, maybe it's look go with you. Maybe you have it
when it's Dinwitty, Bullock and Doran Phinney Smith around the court, just three
guys so you can at least trust defensively. And I know I'm being generous
there with Spencer Dinwitty, I want to make that clear, like having him
fly around just because I know he hasn't been a lights out shooter this year
and he can get torced himself defensively. But there's a chance that Rudy Gobert
is gonna do that to you anyway on offense. Do you just try that?
Because it makes even if it doesn't make Rudy Gobert uncomfortable, it's the
scope of his responsibility untenable because of the complexion of the rest of the Jazz
roster. And it's just it's just a question. And if you're not going
to have Luca for even one game, you have to try it out.
That's where I'm at, Like it's like, especially if you're not gonna have
Luca, but even if you do, you might need to just try it
out. To be clear, I wasn't laughing because of the idea. I
was already envisioning the Twitter slander that would come out if at Davis Berton's unit
against Scope Bear is you know what swings a game like there would be no
coming back from that. The Jazz would just have to They shouldn't even show
up for the rest of the series after that, Like it's that would just
be the thing that completely broke them. But yeah, you might as well,
Like, I mean, we've seen the formula to beat the Jazz in
the playoffs, and that's let them get out to a two game league.
And you know, if if they I think if like I know, people
who have been following this team all year have pointed out, you know,
they've blow double digit leads a lot. They just seem somewhat mentally fragile,
probably again because of the weight of expectations and knowing what lies ahead if they
crumble in the first round here, So if you can do something that gets
into their head and you know, throw out an unconventional lineup that has some
success and then they start thinking, oh no, here we go again,
like that, winning the mental battle here is going to be a large part
of who wins the series. I think, who is your X factor for
death is it? I mean Finney Smith. I don't know if he counts
as the next factor, but him, if he has any success against Donovan
Mitchell. I think that's gonna be a huge key to this series because we've
seen Mitchell in the playoffs. He goes just absolutely supernova. Now I want
to say, damas Purt's just because you're trying him up. I like that
the idea to you at least wasn't so egregious. No, I just it
was really like just already imagining the amount the volume of slander because people are
ready to bury this team like that, would that would do it? I
just look, if people are going to insult the opinion. I just wanted
to be clear that it was not a Rudy Gobert thing so much as of
let's fuck with the rest of the Jazz's roster thing, right right? And
I think I think it's worth a try, Like so, yeah, Finnie
Smith's for defense and then probably did witty offensively because he's just been such a
revelation for this team, especially relative to what he showed in Washington earlier this
year. And as you mentioned, you know, if they if they do
try out these three guard lineups or if Luca this is a game, he
probably gets promoted in the starting lineup in Luca's place. So I think he's
gonna have a big role in the series. I am gonna go with Reggie
Bullock basically for the reasons that you just mentioned, because if it's not gonna
be Dorian Finny Smith and Donovan Mitchell, it's probably gonna be Reggie Bullock.
But you're also going to see him go up against Mike Conley as well,
So maybe or maybe he's gonna get time against playing on Bodonovitch, who Look,
I know there are people want to troll Bodonovitch, but sometimes we don't
need to overcomplicate the fact that when he was healthy, seventeen plus points per
game on sixty plus true shooting, Like, we don't need to overcomplicate that
that's really valuable as a secondary weapon. And so we know what we're gonna
get from Dorrian Phinney Smith, who, by the way, I spent the
second most time of anyone in the league defending Donovan Mitchell this show. There
you go, would you be I bet you you could guess the first Is
it also Patrick Beverley, No, it's hurt don't oh nice? Okay,
so we just we know what didn't Tornan Finny Smith is gonna have to do.
And so I land there with Bullock where it's if he's hitting his threes
like he did for I don't wanta say the better part of the season,
but definitely was better over the second half in the first half, and you're
able to get those minutes defensively from him, where it's no, he's not
gonna win those matchups maybe ever, but to make like difficult on them,
especially on Mike Conley, who has quietly, if he's finding tom at him
like, has quietly been borderline brilliant through stretches this season. Who's your ex
factor for the Jazz? Is it also Davis Berton's. I think it's the
guy would probably be regarding him. I think it's mcdonovitch. You just brought
him up, but I mean he you know, when we talk about the
Jazz perimeter week links defensively, you might as well just be sub tweeting mcdonovitch
over these last couple playoff series. So I don't think he's gonna be on
Luca, but maybe he's on Dorian Finney Smith. Again, it's like,
if they've run these three guard lineups, is there a place for him on
the floor? Do they play him off the floor? So? Can he
justify staying on the floor with his offense? Can he provide enough offense to
you know, make quinnside or keep him out there even if he doesn't have
a clear obvious matchup defensively? And then if and when he does, can
he hold his own? Can he prevent these corner threes from Dorian Phinney Smith
then able him to stay out on the court to do guard Donovan Mitchell.
But it's like a I don't know what, type of like a game of
Connect four, almost like you're trying to block the other team from trying to
use their best options, and I guess best or worst options in this case
with mcdonovitch defensively, So yeah, I think I'm going to him. I'm
worried this is too high profile, but I think it's Mike Conley for me
for the Jazz, just because he's clearly important to what you do on offense,
Like he is your connective tissue on offense more than Donovan Mitchell as a
playmaker. And if Donovan Mitchell has a bad game, like it's gonna be
him or Bondnovitch needs to pick up the slacker and then they have joined Clarkson
obviously, I'm just we're talking about Dallas now has more dangerous secondary weapons within
their own offense with having like there's a trickle down effect to having Spencer Dinwitty.
It makes life a little bit easier on Luca. But like now you
also don't need to me in a postseason series where jell And Brunton is technically
your number two because he's just a little bit undersized, and if he's your
number three instead of your number two, you're just deeper. And Mike Conley
is just gonna have to defend basically all those dudes. And I would assume
most likely Dinwitty in just certain lineups or just see a bunch of time on
bruns In. And so he becomes important to the Jazz perimeter defense because you
already mentioned it with Bayamodanovit you're gonna look to stash him on some of the
Jazz is more stationary players, and look, maybe that's why you just roll
out Davis Berton's next to Maxie Clearberd d White, pal Like, are you
gonna try and get yourself in a situation where by Bardonovitch has to move a
bunch? You know, we can talk about the lore of that time.
While he was with the Pacers, he played okay defense on Lebron James.
But does a half decade ago just I'm not It's the Jazz are still elite
defensive team. Rudy Gobert's on the court, but they need like, aside
from Royce O'Neill, who he would be another good choice as an X factor
because they just need him to do everything. It's you need to guard Luca
for every single minute that lucas on the court. But I just think it's
Mike Conley because he might be you know, I know we named Daniel House,
but like he might be U taught second most important perimeter defender at this
point and in this series specifically, Yeah, yeah, I mean there are
gonna be a lot of it's like, you know what you're getting out of
your stars at this point. I think the complimentary guys might be what swing
this either way? Again, assuming health for Luca, Let's do Boston Brooklyn
just to go back to the East for a second. Are we gonna make
picks for you? Just don't want to make fix for Oh my god?
Yes? Fixed? All right? Who is your big rings? I thought
you were just like, let let's avoid the scorn of Jazz Twitter if we
pick against them. But I mean, it's so much of this depends on
Luca's health. Like it's almost impossible to say, you know, not knowing
how much he's gonna miss if any of this series, if he's fully healthy,
I leaned Dallas, or if he plays all seven games, I leaned
Dallas, but I will hedge and say Dallas in seven, you know,
assuming that he misses one game or just isn't like fully recovered from that isn't
one hundred percent. But I don't know, man, this this Jazz team,
just the vibes are not good and they have not been good all season.
And I know Dallas is not the team like the Clippers last year,
Like you're not going to see a five out lineup, and I'll say,
hey, maybe they do. Pretends the five that could be really fun,
but I just don't have any faith in this Jazz team. Honestly, I've
note everything you said. The Mass are plus eight point five points per one
hundred possessions when Jalen Brunson and Spencer did when he played without Luca. There
you go. I don't think that holds over the course of a series without
Luca, but those are important minutes. If you want to, you know,
play Luca fewer than forty two minutes a game, that might be a
little bit important. I'm gonna go Jazz in seven here because I'm skeptical as
to how much Luca plays or what he looks like upon returning. I don't
feel comfortable with that pick as a fan of Chaos. I'm gonna pick Mavericks
in five because as a fan, as just as someone who for Chaos,
that would be using in like five games. You just know that Utah is
gonna be blown to Smith Reens Twinn Snyder is gonna have both feet out the
door after this series. But I do think that the Jazz are They're the
more dangerous offensive team to me, just the mass have Luca and that's like
playoff proof. But like we, I think the discourse around Donovan Mitchell's game
is veered or at times is ver too far away from reality. He's proven
that he can be hyper valuable in the playoffs, and so you have that
go to guy there. And there are more even if there aren't more secondary
weapons in number necessarily, I mean there are Jordan Carson, Boyamardonovitch, Mike
Conley. There are more secondary weapons in number, and like just establishment,
when you look at Boyamardanovitch and Mike Conley, I would feel a little bit
better about the jazz, but it wasn't for as you mentioned, the vibes,
and maybe we need to do a vibes check here, and I'm underwaiting
it. I'm just gonna make Utah in seven. And it has everything to
do with the Luca. Dontri deffree. If you tell me that Luca plays,
if Luca is the Luca he's been for basically since early November, or
more specifically the last half of the season, which by the way, he
shot forty eight point one percent on step back threes over his final thirty six
games. That's sources tell me that's pretty pretty good. Yeah, if you
tell me Luca is Luca, I might actually just lean Dallas in seven because
of how good they've been defensively almost all year, and like Spencer did what
he's been you already mentioned it playing out of his mind. But my official
pick is going to be Jazz and seven. I'm prepared to be wrong.
No, yeah, I mean again, it's like it's impossible to predict without
knowing the Saturn. Like if if Luca misses three games, I also picked
the Jazz, but I'm hoping Slash, assuming that he will be like miss
one game at most. That will do it for part one of what will
be a three part deep dive into the first round of the NBA Playoffs.
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We will be back to talk with Brian to talk about Warriors Nuggets Celtics
nets and Raptors sixers in the very next podcast I'm not already be live,
or if I'm you're listening to this until that time, you get the shout
out to the one, the only, the playoff down Frank Nilkan