WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.720 --> 00:00:07.280 You're listening to Redefining Energy. Your co hosts from Berlin, Gerard Raid and 2 00:00:07.480 --> 00:00:17.039 from London, Lawrence Segal. Episode one hundred. Wow, I can't believe 3 00:00:17.280 --> 00:00:20.399 this is one hundred episode. How long have you been doing this? It's 4 00:00:20.399 --> 00:00:23.600 going to be five years this ortime. Time flies, my friend, every 5 00:00:23.600 --> 00:00:31.359 really does, especially considering our modest starts in the Red Lion pub behind. 6 00:00:32.560 --> 00:00:36.439 Yeah, that's true, that's true. You me getting drinking too much wine 7 00:00:36.439 --> 00:00:39.560 and talking about everything and anything in the energy space and then decided to do 8 00:00:39.560 --> 00:00:45.479 a podcast out about Look. I like to thank all our listener because we 9 00:00:45.479 --> 00:00:50.600 are reaching now nine hundred thousand downblades. Can you believe that? I can't 10 00:00:50.640 --> 00:00:53.600 believe that either, I really can't. It's fun for me. I don't 11 00:00:53.640 --> 00:00:56.119 regard it as a burden. I think there was a period where it was 12 00:00:56.119 --> 00:00:59.320 a little bit of a burden when we're trying to get our hands around the 13 00:00:59.399 --> 00:01:02.200 technology and what to use and what not to use and all this. But 14 00:01:02.240 --> 00:01:06.480 now it sort of works right. Yeah, but wonderful guest, And thanks 15 00:01:06.480 --> 00:01:10.799 to our listeners who just vote for us and listen to us and comment and 16 00:01:10.840 --> 00:01:14.480 we share. I mean guys who will not be there without you. So 17 00:01:14.519 --> 00:01:18.840 there is this new ranking of podcasts on Honorable Energy Who's been released and yeah, 18 00:01:19.480 --> 00:01:22.640 it's incredible. We number two. That's very good, very good, 19 00:01:22.719 --> 00:01:26.599 very I want to know who's one number one, the Energy Gang. But 20 00:01:26.719 --> 00:01:30.640 of course the Energy Gang, the original Energy Gang, was really our inspiration 21 00:01:30.719 --> 00:01:37.560 when we started. So I asked the two member of the original Energy Gang 22 00:01:37.599 --> 00:01:41.359 to join us for episode one hundred. Yeah, it was great to actually 23 00:01:41.400 --> 00:01:45.120 have a conversation with Catherine and Jigger. Can you introduce them? Yeah, 24 00:01:45.120 --> 00:01:49.439 of course. Yeah. Catherine Hamilton is the chair at a business called thirty 25 00:01:49.519 --> 00:01:53.640 eight North Solutions, which is a public policy firm focused on clean energy innovation. 26 00:01:55.079 --> 00:01:59.200 And then you've got Jigger Shah, who is director of the Loan Program 27 00:01:59.200 --> 00:02:05.159 Office at the US DOE Department of Energy, and he's been many years entrepreneur 28 00:02:05.239 --> 00:02:07.319 in the space. You know. Yeah, it's really great to have these 29 00:02:07.319 --> 00:02:13.439 two guys on because they just have so much knowledge and experience. And Catherine 30 00:02:13.439 --> 00:02:17.560 has been a false behind the Inflation Reduction Act. Oh yeah, and actually 31 00:02:17.599 --> 00:02:22.840 these guys, these guys have changed the world absolutely right, that's it, 32 00:02:22.919 --> 00:02:27.680 because what they've done is they've impacted changed like very few other people in the 33 00:02:27.719 --> 00:02:30.439 world had to after the movie. Really, it's a pleasure having the moment 34 00:02:30.479 --> 00:02:36.520 on the show. So let's bring them in, Catherine Jiga, Welcome to 35 00:02:36.560 --> 00:02:42.319 the show, guys. In order to have a great debate, the old 36 00:02:42.319 --> 00:02:46.000 idea was not too much to concentrate on the present, but look at the 37 00:02:46.039 --> 00:02:52.680 future and ask ourself, did we succeed the energy transition? So let's assume 38 00:02:52.680 --> 00:03:00.719 we're in two thirty. Let's assume Elon Muski is finally on Mars. I'm 39 00:03:00.719 --> 00:03:06.120 not if Twitter's going to work from us, but let's assume did the energy 40 00:03:06.159 --> 00:03:09.719 transition work? Catherine, you are only giving us seven years to make this 41 00:03:09.800 --> 00:03:13.800 work, and that is the least amount of time it takes to build any 42 00:03:13.840 --> 00:03:20.240 sort of transmission. Ah, what are you making us do here? I 43 00:03:20.280 --> 00:03:23.479 would say we will have made a lot of progress. We will have built 44 00:03:23.520 --> 00:03:27.280 a lot of things. We will be well on our way in a bunch 45 00:03:27.319 --> 00:03:30.280 of different ways, and there are other places we're going to be really needing 46 00:03:30.319 --> 00:03:35.000 to do some catch up. Jar what do you think part of the problem 47 00:03:35.000 --> 00:03:38.919 with the energy transition is that many of us think about this from a technocratic 48 00:03:38.960 --> 00:03:43.719 point of view, So it's really, will the technologies be ready to scale, 49 00:03:43.759 --> 00:03:46.280 Will it be down the cost curve, Will it be fully approved by 50 00:03:46.479 --> 00:03:52.159 bankers, Will we have institutional capital available. One of the things that we 51 00:03:52.159 --> 00:03:55.319 will have accomplished by twenty thirty in a big way is that everyone in the 52 00:03:55.360 --> 00:04:00.599 world will view the energy transition as a good thing, like that it's actually 53 00:04:00.960 --> 00:04:05.639 better, good quality jobs, better for the environment. It's actually a good 54 00:04:05.639 --> 00:04:10.520 thing, which I don't think is exactly true today. That's why India and 55 00:04:10.680 --> 00:04:14.800 China continue to build coal plants, because they're not sure that the energy transition 56 00:04:14.840 --> 00:04:18.079 will allow them to have enough energy for everyone to live a good life. 57 00:04:18.600 --> 00:04:21.480 The second thing we're going to accomplish by twenty thirty, though, is that 58 00:04:23.079 --> 00:04:28.079 there will be more of an understanding of what it means to have a good 59 00:04:28.160 --> 00:04:30.879 quality job. One of the things that I find frustrating is, you know, 60 00:04:30.959 --> 00:04:34.600 having been in the solar industry for such a long time, so many 61 00:04:34.639 --> 00:04:39.399 people in the solar industry who have been installing solar panels for the better part 62 00:04:39.399 --> 00:04:45.879 of twelve fourteen years still don't view themselves as being in the solar industry from 63 00:04:45.879 --> 00:04:49.600 a career perspective. There's no pension, they barely have any stock in the 64 00:04:49.639 --> 00:04:55.160 companies that they're working with. They may have moved from company to company. 65 00:04:55.199 --> 00:04:58.399 There might be in their fifth company installing solar panels. Right, they don't 66 00:04:58.439 --> 00:05:01.839 have a certificate that's is that they're a good solar installer. They only have 67 00:05:02.079 --> 00:05:05.439 whatever their friends says about them, right, the referral. And so I 68 00:05:05.439 --> 00:05:09.680 do think we're going to fix that by twenty thirty people will be able to 69 00:05:10.040 --> 00:05:13.600 get paid more for being better at their job. They'll actually be able to 70 00:05:13.639 --> 00:05:16.480 get paid more because they do work correctly the first time. And then the 71 00:05:16.560 --> 00:05:20.279 last thing I'd say is that the solar and windustry have the same problems that 72 00:05:20.439 --> 00:05:23.879 the oil and gas industry have, which is it's not clear to me, 73 00:05:24.240 --> 00:05:28.399 but they're always thinking about what it means to be part of the community for 74 00:05:28.439 --> 00:05:31.480 thirty years. Do you want to be friends with the people that you're with 75 00:05:31.680 --> 00:05:34.879 there? What does it mean to be friends? Are you giving back to 76 00:05:34.920 --> 00:05:39.279 the community, are you being a good neighbor? All of those things I 77 00:05:39.279 --> 00:05:42.600 think will be solved by twenty thirty two. I think people will recognize that 78 00:05:42.759 --> 00:05:46.360 they need to have a community benefits plan written and in place with the community 79 00:05:46.720 --> 00:05:51.839 that they're putting ten gigawatt wind turbine farmen or three magawatt solar farmen. Right, 80 00:05:51.879 --> 00:05:57.800 they're going to have a level of agreement. And so those things mean 81 00:05:58.439 --> 00:06:01.439 that we might be able to get everyone excited about the energy transition, which 82 00:06:01.560 --> 00:06:05.240 is not quite true today. Well, and I would just put a finer 83 00:06:05.319 --> 00:06:09.879 point on that and say that if you can't see yourself as part of the 84 00:06:09.920 --> 00:06:12.600 future, then you don't want to be part of that future. And what 85 00:06:12.639 --> 00:06:16.240 we're doing is giving people the ability to participate in their own future and be 86 00:06:16.360 --> 00:06:19.839 part of the solution. And I say that from someone who's a lot of 87 00:06:19.839 --> 00:06:26.079 my family is an Appalachia and Appalachia, a lot of that economy was built 88 00:06:26.120 --> 00:06:30.639 on one resource and now they have to figure out what's next. And they've 89 00:06:30.680 --> 00:06:35.079 been fighting it up to now, and now it looks like people are starting 90 00:06:35.079 --> 00:06:38.800 to understand. Like Jigger said, I'm excited about it. I want to 91 00:06:38.839 --> 00:06:42.319 be part of it. There are jobs available for me to be in it. 92 00:06:42.399 --> 00:06:46.000 But also I can see myself and my family as part of that economy. 93 00:06:46.839 --> 00:06:50.959 Right now, what's happening. It seems that from any generation, we're 94 00:06:51.000 --> 00:06:56.199 a bit of too crossholds, from a bit of a centralized system to a 95 00:06:56.199 --> 00:07:00.879 decentralized system or hyperd or whatever. And I like to hear your opinion into 96 00:07:00.920 --> 00:07:10.480 a thirty about certain technologies geothermal, nuclear, whether it's fission or fusion. 97 00:07:11.120 --> 00:07:15.519 Do you think in those carbon free baseload technology will have done significant progress or 98 00:07:15.519 --> 00:07:20.480 it's still pilots and labs and everything. So Jigger should speak to the nuclear 99 00:07:20.519 --> 00:07:24.160 piece sense. Jigger, you're much more involved than that. But I do 100 00:07:24.199 --> 00:07:27.879 a lot of work in geothermal and hydropower, and I think both of those, 101 00:07:28.120 --> 00:07:31.199 yes, have a much rosier future into twenty thirty. And I look 102 00:07:31.199 --> 00:07:35.680 at some of those technologies that are really trying to do more with less, 103 00:07:35.920 --> 00:07:42.160 having less land and water impact, and really trying to kind of think use 104 00:07:42.240 --> 00:07:46.480 a traditional base load technology in a way that's innovative and more cost effective and 105 00:07:46.480 --> 00:07:51.120 easier to scale. So I see those technologies as really being on a strong 106 00:07:51.360 --> 00:07:56.160 growth potential. Of course, when and solar are so cheap, the issue 107 00:07:56.199 --> 00:08:00.360 for those technologies are going to be much more about being stranded without trans mission 108 00:08:00.680 --> 00:08:03.480 or not have enough land to be on. So I see those as the 109 00:08:03.519 --> 00:08:07.839 strongest technologies. But I'm sure Jigger will have something to say about nuclear power 110 00:08:07.879 --> 00:08:11.399 too, Catherine, Can I just follow up question on geothermals. Firstly, 111 00:08:11.519 --> 00:08:16.560 Yes, if I look at like we've spent the last let's say fifteen years 112 00:08:16.000 --> 00:08:20.680 renewabilizing the electricity system, that's what we've been doing. But what we actually 113 00:08:20.680 --> 00:08:22.839 haven't looked at as heat and heath's a really difficult one. So if I 114 00:08:22.879 --> 00:08:26.199 look at geotermal and you sort of say, actually, it could solve both 115 00:08:26.240 --> 00:08:31.519 problems. It could enable you to electrify more, renewablize more of the electricity 116 00:08:31.519 --> 00:08:35.559 system and also supply heat. And so I'd love to hear your thoughts on 117 00:08:35.639 --> 00:08:39.440 how you see that, on what the potential is. Absolutely that is an 118 00:08:39.480 --> 00:08:43.919 amazing ability of geothermal is that it can do multiple things at different times. 119 00:08:43.000 --> 00:08:48.639 And some of the new technologies are also able to be load following. They 120 00:08:48.639 --> 00:08:50.159 can be useful in a lot of different ways, some of these closed loop 121 00:08:50.200 --> 00:08:54.759 technologies that don't use water and that are able to produce heat and electricity. 122 00:08:56.000 --> 00:08:58.960 And I think it will depend on, you know, what's the better value 123 00:08:58.159 --> 00:09:03.399 at the location and whatever the mix is there. Yeah, I absolutely agree 124 00:09:03.399 --> 00:09:07.960 with you, or I'd answer the question from a slightly different place, which 125 00:09:07.039 --> 00:09:11.200 is that the grid is the largest machine that we have in the world that 126 00:09:11.639 --> 00:09:16.679 no one seems to really prioritize optimizing. When you put a trillion dollars into 127 00:09:16.720 --> 00:09:22.840 something, normally you actually wanted to run efficiently. You wanted to run sort 128 00:09:22.840 --> 00:09:26.440 of a high capacity utilization if you're gonna put that much money into it. 129 00:09:26.919 --> 00:09:28.919 But the grid is run in a way where we're saying, well, you 130 00:09:28.960 --> 00:09:35.519 know, people get dedicated capacity in the grid. That's what this interconnection QUE 131 00:09:35.919 --> 00:09:39.759 means for solar and wind, is that someone wants dedicated capacity. Why do 132 00:09:39.799 --> 00:09:43.039 you want dedicated capacity? Like if we just said to people, no dedicated 133 00:09:43.039 --> 00:09:46.559 capacity, anyone who wants to connect to the grid can as long as they're 134 00:09:46.639 --> 00:09:50.279 using safe equipment and all those things. Well, then what you would have 135 00:09:50.399 --> 00:09:54.080 is a series of curtailment. So at the time at which you had too 136 00:09:54.159 --> 00:09:58.480 much solar too which when you'd curtail, and that curtailment could be captured by 137 00:09:58.559 --> 00:10:01.080 storage, so you could co locate storage and you could say, well, 138 00:10:01.120 --> 00:10:03.799 instead of curtailing, I'm going to dump that power into storage and then I'm 139 00:10:03.799 --> 00:10:07.600 going to put it on the grid when there's room on the grid. This 140 00:10:07.960 --> 00:10:13.840 entire system that we're talking about now costs real money. And so whether you 141 00:10:13.879 --> 00:10:20.039 decide to build a lot of new transmission to inefficiently use it for solar and 142 00:10:20.080 --> 00:10:24.200 wind or other things that need to have dedicated capacity, or you force solar 143 00:10:24.200 --> 00:10:31.200 and wind to have long duration energy storage or other things they're co located so 144 00:10:31.240 --> 00:10:35.399 that they can actually meet a much higher capacity utilization, or you decide to 145 00:10:35.440 --> 00:10:39.480 do geothermal, you improve hydro dams. There's a lot of new technologies now 146 00:10:39.519 --> 00:10:43.519 that can get ten to fifteen percent more out of the same resource, or 147 00:10:43.559 --> 00:10:46.799 you put in nuclear. It's all more expensive than nineteen dollars a mega one 148 00:10:46.879 --> 00:10:52.759 hour, all of it. So part of our problem is that somehow the 149 00:10:52.120 --> 00:10:58.559 Googles and the like facebooks and Amazons and Apples of the world think that they 150 00:10:58.600 --> 00:11:01.960 need to pay nineteen twenty nine dollars thirty nine dollars a megudar, while at 151 00:11:03.000 --> 00:11:07.279 the same time saying we need to be twenty four by seven matched. The 152 00:11:07.360 --> 00:11:09.440 only way to be twenty four by seven matched is to pay seven cents to 153 00:11:09.519 --> 00:11:13.559 kill what hour? Now, guess what, if you want geo thermal to 154 00:11:13.600 --> 00:11:16.600 work, you gotta pay seven cents of kill what are right now? Probably 155 00:11:16.600 --> 00:11:18.399 ten? But I think we can probably get it down to seven. Hydro 156 00:11:18.600 --> 00:11:22.799 is the same. But these projects are not moving forward because people are saying 157 00:11:24.399 --> 00:11:26.559 I'm not going to let you move forward unless you give me power at thirty 158 00:11:26.600 --> 00:11:30.720 dollars a megudar, and the same with nuclear. So to me, it's 159 00:11:30.799 --> 00:11:35.159 not about the technology, although you know we can have a conversation about it. 160 00:11:35.159 --> 00:11:39.519 It's about reframing what it means to generate clean firm generation. Because I 161 00:11:39.679 --> 00:11:45.639 do not believe that we are going to build three x the grade in the 162 00:11:45.720 --> 00:11:50.399 United States that we currently have, which is what all the models suggest. 163 00:11:50.480 --> 00:11:52.919 We need to get to US seventy percent penetration rate of solar and wind, 164 00:11:54.039 --> 00:11:56.679 so I think we might get to one point eight x the grid maximum. 165 00:11:56.720 --> 00:12:01.480 If that's the case and you want to decarbized by twenty thirty five, which 166 00:12:01.519 --> 00:12:05.399 is the president's goal, well then you're going to have to use the grid 167 00:12:05.480 --> 00:12:09.759 more efficiently. So that either means overbuilding solar and wind and putting the excess 168 00:12:09.759 --> 00:12:13.559 power into long duration energy storage which then gets dispatched over time, which is 169 00:12:13.600 --> 00:12:20.159 expensive, or it means moving to nuclear or geothermal or hydro or other things. 170 00:12:20.200 --> 00:12:22.720 But all of its seven cents of kill one hour, and once we 171 00:12:22.799 --> 00:12:28.240 decide that that's what it costs, then all of this becomes a lot easier. 172 00:12:28.679 --> 00:12:31.240 But right now we're in fantasyland and we think we can actually get it 173 00:12:31.240 --> 00:12:33.639 done at twenty nine dollars a mega hour, and that's not going to happen. 174 00:12:33.919 --> 00:12:39.600 We need to shift the discussion from only about clean firm generation to flexible 175 00:12:39.679 --> 00:12:43.919 generation and flexible demand, because that's how we're going to get to one hundred 176 00:12:43.960 --> 00:12:48.279 percent. I was just up in Ontario this week and they're talking about having 177 00:12:48.279 --> 00:12:52.679 to build natural gas and they were super clean, they completely decarbonized, but 178 00:12:52.799 --> 00:12:56.720 they're finding additional demand growth and corporates like Jigger mentioned that are saying we want 179 00:12:56.720 --> 00:13:01.120 one percent renewable, we need to match it to our Well, we're going 180 00:13:01.159 --> 00:13:03.320 to have to work on the demand side too. We're going to have to 181 00:13:03.360 --> 00:13:05.759 have a lot more distributed energy generation resources that are going to be brought in 182 00:13:07.000 --> 00:13:09.720 to be much more flexible as well, so that we don't end up having 183 00:13:09.720 --> 00:13:13.399 to build more fossil fuels. Yeah, you know, I totally agree with 184 00:13:13.480 --> 00:13:16.559 you, by the way, Like I mean, I'm equally working on virtual 185 00:13:16.600 --> 00:13:20.519 power plants at the Department Energy as well, and we have got to change 186 00:13:20.600 --> 00:13:24.519 the way that we manage the grid to be supply following instead of load following. 187 00:13:24.559 --> 00:13:28.480 And I do think we have the technology to do it, and you're 188 00:13:28.480 --> 00:13:31.120 absolutely right. But I also think, Catherine, and I think you agree 189 00:13:31.159 --> 00:13:35.279 with me, that geothermal is just not going to get to thirty dollars a 190 00:13:35.360 --> 00:13:39.600 meguare it's not going to happen. Interesting and an excellent segue you took about 191 00:13:39.639 --> 00:13:43.399 batteries, and of course batteries that's for the grid, that's energy storage, 192 00:13:43.440 --> 00:13:48.879 but now its mostly transportation. And part of our energy transition is how fast 193 00:13:48.919 --> 00:13:54.919 are we going to electrify the transportation sector? And my personal review and what 194 00:13:54.039 --> 00:14:00.120 we saw recently in China oppening and what happens China opens you hope to two 195 00:14:00.159 --> 00:14:03.519 years later and in the US, I don't know when, but I guess 196 00:14:03.600 --> 00:14:09.759 quite not far behind. Is that the ice sector is literally going to collapse, 197 00:14:09.799 --> 00:14:13.080 and the partitions they don't need to put mandate like nothing into a thirty 198 00:14:13.200 --> 00:14:18.559 thirty five and so on, because that's going to happen. My prediction for 199 00:14:18.679 --> 00:14:22.399 two thirty is that we're going to be like nowhere, everywhere, one hundred 200 00:14:22.440 --> 00:14:24.799 percent of the new vehicles just going to be electric I'm not sure about text 201 00:14:24.919 --> 00:14:28.480 us, but in Europe that is for sure, and in California is for 202 00:14:28.559 --> 00:14:35.000 sure. And when I took to young researchers and they're wonderful to see the 203 00:14:35.120 --> 00:14:39.480 speed at which the technology for a battery, the density of battery to cost, 204 00:14:39.799 --> 00:14:43.919 the amount of R and D that has been put in battery makes me 205 00:14:43.000 --> 00:14:48.720 hopeful about the extremely rapid electrification of transport or am I the only one thinking 206 00:14:48.799 --> 00:14:52.639 that? Leron? Can I just add one thing too, It's not just 207 00:14:52.759 --> 00:14:58.440 batteries, because it's also semiconductors, it's electric drives, you name us. 208 00:14:58.559 --> 00:15:03.840 The speed of innovation in and around the electric cars is amazing. And let's 209 00:15:03.879 --> 00:15:07.759 be clear, if you look in China today, by D has now overtaken 210 00:15:07.799 --> 00:15:13.480 Volks are going to be the largest producer of cars in China and it produces 211 00:15:13.000 --> 00:15:16.559 only electric and hybrid cars. So that's the reality of us. I agree 212 00:15:16.559 --> 00:15:20.200 with you, and I think it's going to speed up because China is forcing 213 00:15:20.279 --> 00:15:24.480 us to compete with them in different ways than we did before. Now listen, 214 00:15:24.519 --> 00:15:26.399 I'd love to hear what Chigger and Costom think of about I agree with 215 00:15:26.480 --> 00:15:30.720 you on that. I'm a huge fan of electric vehicle. So I mean, 216 00:15:30.720 --> 00:15:33.480 I'm running the Loan Program's office, and we clearly had a big role 217 00:15:33.519 --> 00:15:39.600 to play in electric vehicles and continue to play a big role in battery manufacturing, 218 00:15:39.639 --> 00:15:43.519 critical minerals, EV charging and all that stuff. I will say that 219 00:15:43.600 --> 00:15:48.039 I feel like people are being a little unrealistic about how long it takes to 220 00:15:48.159 --> 00:15:52.720 change over the fleet. And I also think people are being unrealistic about the 221 00:15:52.720 --> 00:15:58.080 comfort level of Americans. I don't think that the vast majority of Americans, 222 00:15:58.799 --> 00:16:03.080 even in twenty thirty will want all of their vehicles to be electric. The 223 00:16:03.120 --> 00:16:07.639 way it's going to work is they're going to have one main vehicle that's electric. 224 00:16:08.000 --> 00:16:12.399 There other vehicles will be gasoline powered, because remember, the vast majority 225 00:16:12.440 --> 00:16:17.240 of Americans buy used cars. New cars are really only for wealthy people. 226 00:16:17.559 --> 00:16:21.519 So they're gonna have one electric then a gasoline powered car, and they're going 227 00:16:21.559 --> 00:16:26.759 to shift the vast majority of their miles to the electric car because everybody knows 228 00:16:26.840 --> 00:16:30.720 intrinsically that the cost per mile is cheaper with electric. But I do think 229 00:16:30.720 --> 00:16:34.720 that from a comfort standpoint, it's going to be a long time before people 230 00:16:34.759 --> 00:16:41.279 decide to retire the internal combustion engine vehicle from their lives, because I just 231 00:16:41.360 --> 00:16:47.120 think that there's a comfort that people have culturally around being able to fill up 232 00:16:47.159 --> 00:16:51.559 their gas tank in four minutes and all these other things that the electric vehicle 233 00:16:51.960 --> 00:16:53.960 is not supposed to copy. I don't want it to be able to be 234 00:16:55.039 --> 00:16:57.639 charged in four minutes. The fact that I can charge it in my garage 235 00:16:57.720 --> 00:17:00.399 is the best way to integrate with the grid. So I think you'll see 236 00:17:00.440 --> 00:17:04.279 a lot of vehicle miles traveled moved to electric. But I don't think you're 237 00:17:04.319 --> 00:17:08.759 going to see this sort of full transformation to electric vehicles. I don't know. 238 00:17:10.000 --> 00:17:12.200 I agree with part of that jigger. But on the other hand, 239 00:17:12.319 --> 00:17:18.240 I look at other things like incandescent lightbulbs, and you know, it took 240 00:17:18.240 --> 00:17:22.680 a little while for people to go to CFLs, but then once LEDs came 241 00:17:22.680 --> 00:17:27.519 into the market, and we're a better quality, better lighting, cheaper. 242 00:17:29.160 --> 00:17:32.359 It's just happened. That's what you buy when you go to the store. 243 00:17:32.440 --> 00:17:36.359 You know you're not going I'm looking for an incandescent light bulb anymore. The 244 00:17:36.400 --> 00:17:41.839 same happened with low flow toilets, which people complained about for so long. 245 00:17:41.960 --> 00:17:45.519 Oh they're terrible, They're not working. Now that's the only thing on the 246 00:17:45.599 --> 00:17:48.000 market, and that's for a number of reasons. You know. Part of 247 00:17:48.000 --> 00:17:51.880 it is just regulation that we've been, standards that we put into place, 248 00:17:52.200 --> 00:17:55.759 but other is just that the quality was there. There was no reason not 249 00:17:55.839 --> 00:17:59.720 to. It was better cheaper, and I think we will reach a tipping 250 00:17:59.759 --> 00:18:03.359 point for evs where it'll just be cheaper. And yes, you might have 251 00:18:03.440 --> 00:18:06.640 your old Galope in the back just in case you absolutely have to have it. 252 00:18:07.319 --> 00:18:10.839 But even in rural Virginia, where I spend a ton of my time, 253 00:18:11.279 --> 00:18:15.599 people out there are talking about getting electric F one fifty lightnings. They're 254 00:18:15.640 --> 00:18:19.759 talking about well, mostly about getting the Mustang. Actually you're talking about EVS, 255 00:18:21.000 --> 00:18:25.319 and I find that really hopeful. I find that signals to me, 256 00:18:26.000 --> 00:18:29.720 huh, people are seeing this not as this is a climate change issue. 257 00:18:29.880 --> 00:18:33.079 This is about making my life better. Yeah, as usual. I don't 258 00:18:33.119 --> 00:18:37.000 think we differ from each other too much. The only thing I would caution 259 00:18:37.119 --> 00:18:41.559 though here is as opposed to LED lights and low flow toilets, there are 260 00:18:41.599 --> 00:18:45.200 people who actually make their money based on the car that they have, and 261 00:18:45.279 --> 00:18:48.680 for those people, I don't think an F one fifty lightning is going to 262 00:18:48.759 --> 00:18:52.640 work When you think about what the range looks like in an F one fifty 263 00:18:52.720 --> 00:18:57.279 lightning when you add an additional two thousand pounds into the bed of that truck, 264 00:18:57.519 --> 00:19:02.960 or you're towing three thousand pounds, Like every single person in my neighborhood 265 00:19:03.000 --> 00:19:07.240 who comes to cut lawns is pulling a trailer, and the range on the 266 00:19:07.279 --> 00:19:11.400 F one fifty goes from three hundred miles to like ninety six miles when you're 267 00:19:11.440 --> 00:19:15.960 doing that. And so I still think that it's going to take a lot 268 00:19:15.960 --> 00:19:22.400 of time for people who actually have to haul thousands of pounds or do some 269 00:19:22.480 --> 00:19:25.799 of those things to switch over. And I think that's fine, honestly, 270 00:19:25.839 --> 00:19:30.079 because I think we were able to switch over seventy percent of vehicle miles traveled 271 00:19:30.119 --> 00:19:33.960 to electric, which would drop the price of gasoline and diesel for folks, 272 00:19:33.000 --> 00:19:37.160 and I think it would make a huge difference in climate change. Well, 273 00:19:37.160 --> 00:19:41.279 that's why I beg to defer, because we're coming from Europe, and does 274 00:19:41.279 --> 00:19:47.319 this quote Desperation brings innovation and you have the chance of luxury in the US 275 00:19:47.400 --> 00:19:52.839 to produce your own oil and be kind of oil energy independent, which has 276 00:19:52.839 --> 00:19:56.359 a lot of positive and of course a lot of downside between Yorpe. We 277 00:19:56.400 --> 00:20:00.519 need to import ninety percent of hour a certain way. China's the same. 278 00:20:02.039 --> 00:20:07.119 We don't have the luxury to entertain a slow transition. And if you look 279 00:20:07.200 --> 00:20:11.400 where we need to import our oil from, it's from regions with people who 280 00:20:11.440 --> 00:20:15.880 don't really like us. So I believe that when we start the year, 281 00:20:17.160 --> 00:20:19.960 we know that we need to throw four percent of the GDP of a continent 282 00:20:21.160 --> 00:20:26.240 to buy fossil fuel from outside Europe. It's just gone. And my opinion, 283 00:20:26.319 --> 00:20:27.960 and I don't know Jazz agree with me, is that And of course 284 00:20:27.960 --> 00:20:32.519 our distances are much lower than the US, but the fiction of transports going 285 00:20:32.599 --> 00:20:37.400 to go much faster child totally which is around And I would add as well, 286 00:20:37.440 --> 00:20:40.880 don't forget we haven't talked about gas. At the end of the day, 287 00:20:41.039 --> 00:20:45.160 it is a geopolitically imperative for us in Europe to get away from natural 288 00:20:45.200 --> 00:20:48.319 gas. And I say get away from natural gas. It's not just rushing 289 00:20:48.319 --> 00:20:55.039 gas because buying expensive energy it makes sure that our homes are heated. But 290 00:20:55.119 --> 00:20:59.680 I mean, industry just cannot complete when you have to go an import energy 291 00:20:59.759 --> 00:21:03.440 from the say, so we have really big challenges in Europe that you don't 292 00:21:03.440 --> 00:21:06.720 have in the US, you know, and that's why we have to change, 293 00:21:06.839 --> 00:21:10.400 and the US has a choice. I think one of the biggest challenges 294 00:21:10.480 --> 00:21:15.319 in the US is exactly the sector that Jigger was somewhat alluding to before, 295 00:21:15.480 --> 00:21:22.119 which is long haul trucking boy in the US, that is really due for 296 00:21:22.279 --> 00:21:26.640 disruption and innovation. We have to change that. They're just people dying on 297 00:21:26.680 --> 00:21:30.519 the roads every single day because they're driving too long, too far, just 298 00:21:30.720 --> 00:21:34.039 absolutely terrifying. And the US is massive, and so they're driving across the 299 00:21:34.079 --> 00:21:37.240 country. That's how they're paid, that's how they make their living. And 300 00:21:37.279 --> 00:21:41.079 I think that is due for an innovation, not just on the type of 301 00:21:41.119 --> 00:21:47.519 fuel, but also just in the way those jobs are supported and the way 302 00:21:47.559 --> 00:21:49.359 those people have to live. I just think that's something that I've seen a 303 00:21:49.400 --> 00:21:52.599 little bit of that in innovation, and I think that's something that in the 304 00:21:52.720 --> 00:21:56.519 US is going to be a big need for disruption. Can I ask you 305 00:21:56.559 --> 00:22:00.680 a little bit about hydrogen and you've used and I'm coming from as I think 306 00:22:00.680 --> 00:22:03.839 you've got Roll actually said it earlier on. You have everything right, You've 307 00:22:03.880 --> 00:22:08.480 got the resources possible fuel resources and massive renewer resources but you've also got stuff 308 00:22:08.519 --> 00:22:12.480 like an ammonia pipeline and ammonia infrastructure and stuff like that that we don't have 309 00:22:12.599 --> 00:22:15.799 in Europe. And I'd love to just hear your view and how you see 310 00:22:15.799 --> 00:22:21.440 that going forward, where hydrogen will be used in the US, and whether 311 00:22:21.440 --> 00:22:23.759 you're going to be exporting it or what should be doing with it. There's 312 00:22:23.759 --> 00:22:29.400 a number of answers to your question. There are twenty seven or whatever different 313 00:22:29.519 --> 00:22:32.960 use cases for hydrogen than people are hyping these days. We are at maximum 314 00:22:33.039 --> 00:22:37.960 hydrogen hype cycle. From a private sector standpoint, there's probably three or so 315 00:22:37.119 --> 00:22:42.000 applications that are actually happening at scale, so ammonia being the top of the 316 00:22:42.039 --> 00:22:48.119 list. But then some of the other existing use cases of hydrogen are being 317 00:22:48.160 --> 00:22:52.279 considered to be converted from dirty hydrogen to clean hydrogen, and so I think 318 00:22:52.319 --> 00:22:56.000 that that's where you're going to see the bulk of the hydrogen moving today. 319 00:22:56.680 --> 00:22:59.640 You know, I do think we all have to be quite careful about using 320 00:22:59.680 --> 00:23:03.079 header as a panacea for all of these things. For instance, like with 321 00:23:03.240 --> 00:23:07.519 steel manufacturing, I am not convinced that steel is going to go with hydrogen 322 00:23:07.559 --> 00:23:11.319 as the way to decarbonize. There's similar things. Like you know, I 323 00:23:11.319 --> 00:23:15.119 think there's a lot of people who want to put hydrogen into existing natural gas 324 00:23:15.119 --> 00:23:19.640 pipelines and figure out how to then burn it on the other side, which 325 00:23:21.079 --> 00:23:25.440 to me is highly difficult. It's one thing to inject hydrogen into a pipeline, 326 00:23:25.720 --> 00:23:30.000 it's another thing to verify that those hydrogen molecules actually came out the other 327 00:23:30.039 --> 00:23:36.400 side and reduced the consumption of natural gas when burned in some sort of end 328 00:23:36.519 --> 00:23:41.160 use case, and that data is not yet clear to people. So I 329 00:23:41.240 --> 00:23:44.599 do think that, and even on heavy trucks and medium d trucks, hydrogen 330 00:23:44.680 --> 00:23:48.839 could be an extraordinary range extender, basically for electric trucks that need to go 331 00:23:48.960 --> 00:23:52.799 a much longer distance and don't want to carry another five thousand pounds of batteries. 332 00:23:53.319 --> 00:23:57.759 That being said, you need refueling stations that are probably refueling two tons 333 00:23:57.799 --> 00:24:03.680 a day of hydrogen to make that infrastructure cost effective. So you would need 334 00:24:03.759 --> 00:24:08.960 to establish corridors or use cases where you can get that concentrated refueling, like 335 00:24:10.039 --> 00:24:15.599 dredge trucks at ports or other fleets. And so we're very bullish on hydrogen 336 00:24:15.680 --> 00:24:18.680 in the United States, and certainly we're getting an extraordinary amount of investment here 337 00:24:18.759 --> 00:24:22.160 because of this new forty five V tax credit that we put in place. 338 00:24:22.519 --> 00:24:26.960 But I do think that people need to be a little bit more cautious about 339 00:24:27.119 --> 00:24:30.599 thinking that hydrogen is going to solve all the world's problems. Sugar, Can 340 00:24:30.640 --> 00:24:33.960 I ask you, look, we talked about it up to two thousand and 341 00:24:33.000 --> 00:24:37.440 thirty. I'd love to hear your vision beyond that. How do you see 342 00:24:37.480 --> 00:24:40.240 us if you're here in two thousand and forty, two thousand and fifty, 343 00:24:40.720 --> 00:24:41.960 how do you see the world. Do you look at a positively, look 344 00:24:42.000 --> 00:24:45.799 at negatively? I always see the world positively. I think when you think 345 00:24:45.839 --> 00:24:52.559 about where we are, our forefathers couldn't have dreamed about all the things that 346 00:24:52.599 --> 00:24:56.720 we have at our fingertips, and the fact that we have access to all 347 00:24:56.720 --> 00:25:00.559 this information. You now have AI where can write essays in your voice, 348 00:25:00.680 --> 00:25:03.599 right. I mean, there's all this extraordinary stuff happening, which I think 349 00:25:03.680 --> 00:25:08.480 is great. But in every generation you also have challenges, whether it's feeding 350 00:25:08.519 --> 00:25:12.240 the world, or figuring out how to reduce climate change, or figuring out 351 00:25:12.279 --> 00:25:18.079 how to reduce slavery that still exists around the world today. Human rights and 352 00:25:18.119 --> 00:25:21.720 so we always aspire to do better, but I do think that the tools 353 00:25:21.759 --> 00:25:26.240 that we have available to us are quite powerful. Nuclear fission will be commonplace 354 00:25:26.319 --> 00:25:30.160 again in the forties. You will see that being used, even at the 355 00:25:30.200 --> 00:25:34.759 micro level. Nuclear will end up replacing almost all diesel generators in the world 356 00:25:36.039 --> 00:25:38.519 better than solar plus batteries. Storage will on the micro side, and then 357 00:25:38.559 --> 00:25:41.799 I think fusion will come. It probably won't be until twenty fifty, but 358 00:25:42.279 --> 00:25:47.359 we will end up in a much better place as a result. So I'm 359 00:25:47.440 --> 00:25:52.359 quite positive about it. But I do think that the underlying trends around democracy 360 00:25:52.559 --> 00:25:59.079 and autocracy and figuring out how we become more inclusive, as Catherine suggested earlier, 361 00:25:59.400 --> 00:26:03.319 and how people see their own well being in this transition is going to 362 00:26:03.359 --> 00:26:07.480 be key, and I don't think we spend enough time on that. Yeah, 363 00:26:07.680 --> 00:26:11.079 Gerard, I was going to use chat GPT to respond to your question, 364 00:26:11.160 --> 00:26:15.960 but because I would probably give you a better response. But I digger 365 00:26:17.079 --> 00:26:21.240 on this in some ways. I think a lot, obviously about public policy 366 00:26:21.279 --> 00:26:23.640 and the need for political will to do things, and how you're sort of 367 00:26:23.839 --> 00:26:30.880 necessity being the mother of invention or catastrophe, the need to change being the 368 00:26:30.960 --> 00:26:37.880 drivers I now fear the need for political will, because politicians are the least 369 00:26:37.960 --> 00:26:45.240 brave people out there in most circumstances. But I do believe in this generation 370 00:26:45.319 --> 00:26:48.799 coming up behind us, and they don't all have to be technologists, they 371 00:26:48.799 --> 00:26:51.960 don't have to be engineers or scientists. A lot of these are just people 372 00:26:52.000 --> 00:26:55.960 who want the world to thrive. They want to thrive, they want to 373 00:26:56.000 --> 00:26:59.039 be in a better place, and they'll look at my kids, and eventually 374 00:26:59.079 --> 00:27:02.160 I'll look at my grandkids and say like they're the ones that are going to 375 00:27:02.279 --> 00:27:06.240 keep going as well all of ours, and that they're the ones that are 376 00:27:06.240 --> 00:27:08.920 going to take those solutions into the future in a way that we may not 377 00:27:10.039 --> 00:27:14.720 even be able to imagine. I can tell you I'm probably even more optimistic 378 00:27:14.759 --> 00:27:18.079 than you are, because when I see the young generation, the people in 379 00:27:18.119 --> 00:27:21.880 their twenties and the thirties, and how well they are trained, and how 380 00:27:21.960 --> 00:27:26.920 qualified they are, and how absolutely determined there how to put the dis energy 381 00:27:26.960 --> 00:27:33.400 transition forward. Maybe I'm only tooking to our silo, but I love their 382 00:27:33.480 --> 00:27:40.000 thrust and their positive attitude, and the young generation is going to succeed the 383 00:27:40.079 --> 00:27:44.240 energy transition. That would be my final world job. I love it, 384 00:27:44.279 --> 00:27:47.240 guys, really, thank you very much. I love the conversation today. 385 00:27:47.279 --> 00:27:49.559 This was pretty It was a treat for us. Great epis on one hundred 386 00:27:49.680 --> 00:27:53.839 and I hope to see you for episode two hundred if we still around. 387 00:27:56.880 --> 00:28:02.200 And here's the dirty little secret, Laune. Whenever the Energy Gang decided to 388 00:28:02.240 --> 00:28:07.039 do something that was remotely about Europe or about any other part of the world, 389 00:28:07.079 --> 00:28:10.000 I would go back and look at Redefining Energy and listen to you all 390 00:28:10.039 --> 00:28:15.559 to try to make sure I was on target. Thank you Katherine, thank 391 00:28:15.599 --> 00:28:18.960 you, Jiga, Thank you so much. Guys, my pleasure, thanks 392 00:28:18.960 --> 00:28:26.599 for having thank you every brilliant yead. I'm so emotional. It's the French 393 00:28:26.640 --> 00:28:30.960 in you, that's what it is. Why, oh my god, I 394 00:28:32.000 --> 00:28:37.200 mean that's so cool. I feel part of something much bigger than me. 395 00:28:37.559 --> 00:28:41.799 Well, that's actually the energy transition is. It is great to see these 396 00:28:41.880 --> 00:28:48.519 let's call the early movers in this industry now really beginning to impact change. 397 00:28:48.599 --> 00:28:52.799 And that's Catherine and Jaker, that's what they are doing. What's really interesting 398 00:28:53.079 --> 00:28:56.519 for us, based in your hope versus in the US, is even if 399 00:28:56.519 --> 00:29:03.759 the solutions are the same, the political and enjoymental contexts are so different in 400 00:29:03.799 --> 00:29:08.359 a certain way. We do the energy transition because we don't have a choice, 401 00:29:08.480 --> 00:29:11.880 But you know, us, they have a choice and they still do 402 00:29:11.960 --> 00:29:15.720 it. And of course it's more difficult because you've got legacy energy US who's 403 00:29:15.720 --> 00:29:21.079 going to fight every inch of the energy transition. I think the US is 404 00:29:21.240 --> 00:29:25.960 much more practical about energy than we are because it's all about money. So 405 00:29:25.960 --> 00:29:30.039 if you've got to taxes, they're embracing both the past and the future. 406 00:29:30.440 --> 00:29:34.319 We in Europe are very dogmatic when it comes to it's either you're either in 407 00:29:34.319 --> 00:29:37.519 the fossil fuel camp or the renewable camp. But you can't be in both 408 00:29:37.519 --> 00:29:41.240 of them, right. I like the US approach and mustimation. Yeah, 409 00:29:41.319 --> 00:29:45.240 and at the end of the day, we all need together. And I 410 00:29:45.279 --> 00:29:48.279 think it was great to have them. I mean, it's so grateful on 411 00:29:48.359 --> 00:29:52.680 the show episode one hundred and jad. I hope they'll join us for episode 412 00:29:52.720 --> 00:29:57.160 two hundred. I hope so too. Yeah, that'd be great, Okay, 413 00:29:57.279 --> 00:30:03.720 Jah, great epis. I really thank you Katherine and Jiga and I 414 00:30:03.839 --> 00:30:07.000 talk to you in two weeks time, look forward to its. Thank you 415 00:30:07.079 --> 00:30:11.359 for listening to Redefining Energy. Don't forget to rate the show and subscribe on 416 00:30:11.480 --> 00:30:17.240 Apple Podcast, Spotify, or the platform of your choice.