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A deep Dive edition with Zach Abraham, chief investment officer at Bulwark Capital Management,

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who we invite on the show every
couple of weeks to walk us through

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some of the wonky stuff that we
don't understand on our own when it relates

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to the financial markets and the stock
market and all of that hullabaloo, which

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is pretty much everything. Because I
don't under which is pretty much financial I

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don't understand now, Zach. Before
we went live or went on air,

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or rather, you were saying that
you have some frustration with the current situation,

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care to elaborate. Yeah, well, look, I one of the

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things that annoys me. You know, you guys we talk about it,

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but we do our own show and
we have a podcast as well. And

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one of the things that drives me
nuts in this industry is that everybody that

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has a show or a podcast,
you would think that they have never had

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a year where they didn't beat the
market, right. You would think that

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they're just like these super geniuses are
fine, and it's always hilarious because the

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better they sound, we look at
their underlying portfolio and you're like, good

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golly, this is bad. Right, So I will just tell you that

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I am very frustrated because we are
underperforming the market significantly this year. We're

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like up up percent or two or
whatever. Stock markets up eighteen, So

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that's probably not the best advertisement.
Now, flip side is last year we

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outperformed by even more. So we're
doing fine relative to the market. But

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what's fascinating about this year, and
again me not offering excuses, right,

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what's fascinating about this year is we
went into this year and one of the

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reasons we're just sitting around even on
the year is because we've been very cautiously

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positioned. And the reason we've been
cautiously positioned is because we saw the economy

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slowing down, we saw rates going
higher, we saw credit contracting, especially

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after the Silicon Valley bank you know
scenario, and we very much that revenues

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and earnings would drop this year and
with higher interest rates that stocks are not

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worth as much. Right, they
go down, not like a crash or

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anything, just saying it's, you
know, it's if earnings and revenues are

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falling and interest rates are going up, stocks don't go up well until this

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year. So the frustrating thing is
we were sitting around trying to figure out

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when was the last time we got
the fundamental picture right? And yet things

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still went the other way? And
it's never happened to us. I'm sure

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there's other times where it's happened.
So we start digging into historically and going,

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okay, when was the last time
the market was up double digits over

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a six month period of time in
which we saw margins, revenues, and

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earnings profit falling while interest rates moved
higher. And the answer we found out,

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it's never happened, not once in
history, which makes which makes sense.

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I don't want to go too deep
in the weeds and financial analysis,

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but you know, just think about
it. If a company these revenues,

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their profits, and their margins are
falling, okay, usually you wouldn't think

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that that you gotta go buy,
right, you got to buy that we're

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looking for losers here, people.
That's how you make your money, right.

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And then also when interest rates go
up, that pushes stock valuations down

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as well. And for the simple
reason of look for the last fifteen years,

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if you want to buy a bond, you were making one and a

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half to two percent. Now you
can make five to five and a half.

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Right, So taking risk in a
stock where it can lose one hundred

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percent of your money, it's not
as attractive when we can make five or

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six percent taking no risk. So
you add all these things to go up,

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or you addle these things together,
and you're like, what why stocks

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going up? And I get asked
out by clients and my answer is,

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you know, I don't know.
Why do people think men can have babies?

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You know? You know, I
know we're off. I know we're

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off the path. I know it's
bizarre. I know it doesn't make sense,

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but I don't have an answer for
why. So I think we have

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a couple answers. But I think
that one of the dangers of this cycle

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that we're currently in, especially right
now, is investors and rightfully so,

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one of the things that really influences
our read of the economy right is the

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stock market. So many of us, you know, there's the old adage

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of the stock market isn't the economy, But you know we all do that,

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right we're like, well the economy, Shoot, look at the NASDAC,

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you know, look smps up nineteen
percent, things where they got to

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be heating up. No, no, it's actually going the other direction.

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And I think there's a lot of
reasons for that. But the scary part

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in the article that you referenced is
that to the greatest percentage in history,

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we've never seen anything like it.
The top eight stocks in the market make

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up about forty percent of the value. Okay, So you have five hundred

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stocks in the SMP five hundred,
forty percent of the entire value of the

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SMP five hundred is eight stocks.
And I you know, I read a

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headline about that recently. That was
on CNN Business, which I always refer

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to right before we're about to talk
to you, so I can feel a

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little bit smarter. And it said
it's all tech stuff, right, It's

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like Apple's Microsoft, It's Amazon,
it's meta. But the headline, I

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remember it said that the Biden administration
is worried about that. So explain why

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that's happening and what's going on.
Why they would be worried because it's extraordinarily

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unhealthy. So what you see,
okay, So it typically in bear markets,

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which statistically if you look at it, or on a technical analysis basis,

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if you look at charts and look
at the mark technically, there would

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be a lot of arguments that would
say we're no longer in a bear market.

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We believe that we are, meaning
I believe that the recession just hasn't

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hit yet and that the worst is
to come. And we're really seeing the

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data coming in every single day that
shows deterioration. Consumers spending is slowing down.

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We just had a couple different airlines
come out. I think Alaska just

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came out and said they had significantly
slow or growth dis quarter and they guided

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it down even further for next quarter. They're seeing travel demand start. So

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everywhere we look, you're seeing the
weakness and the stock markets literally going the

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opposite way. But the reason that's
dangerous is because you start building up so

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much value in just a few stocks, and if one of those is to

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break, or several of those or
to break, there's nothing underneath supporting it

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because everybody is on the same side
of the ship, right, everybody in

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their mother owns these eight stocks,
Okay, So what triggers that? Who

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knows, right, It could be
one of those companies coming in with a

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big earnings b or loss. The
other problem it creates is what we call

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price discovery, meaning we all say
we believe in free markets, but I

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don't think a lot of us really
understand why, right, the beautiful There's

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a really cool thing that's always fascinating
me about statistical analysis. So if if

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you know, like at the fair, well, they'll have like a giant

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jar of jellybeans, right, and
they're like, we gotta have you gotta

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take a guess how many are in
there? Right? And whoever gets it

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right? Well, we know through
statistical analysis if we get if we ask

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enough people to give us a guess, right, and I don't know what

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the number is, but let's say
there's ten thousand jelly beans in the jar.

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If we ask enough people and we
average all of their answers together,

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we will get the right answer.
Okay, And it happens every single It's

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fascinating to me, like how statistics
work. And I've done it, I've

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experimented with it. It works right. Markets work the same way, meaning

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when you have free markets, you
have all of these opinions coming in the

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pricing accuracy of the assets in that
market increases. It gets better and better

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and better. Right, And so
we call that price discovery, meaning if

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we really want to know and think
about it's as simple as if we want

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to know what something's worth. Get
together a huge group of people in states

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in auction, right, And that's
kind of the way markets work, right,

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same, same basic principle. Well, when you have so much value

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concentrated in such a small area,
it feeds on itself. Meaning if you

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go out and buy an SMP five
hundred ETF. Okay, so it just

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tracks the SMP five hundred you buy
the stock market, forty cents out of

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every dollar is going directly to those
companies, Okay. The other sixty cents

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is getting spread out between the other
four hundred ninety two. All right,

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So now enough people do that,
that forty percent climbs to forty five,

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right, and it keeps feeding on
itself because they keep getting bigger and they

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keep having more weight, and so
the market gets continually even more and more

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lopsided and more vulnerable because when not
if when those stocks crack due to falling

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earnings or they just get way too
insanely expensive, which I think you can

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make an argument it's getting there right
now. There's nothing there to support it.

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And those same people that bought the
SMP without thinking about it, they

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hit sell. Okay, now they
hit sell, and forty five percent of

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that sale pressure is going against those
eight stocks, so it really increases the

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volatility of the market, and it
increases the vulnerability of the market if those

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eight stocks drop. Let's say all
the other companies are doing really good and

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those eight stocks take a beating stock, market's going down huge, right because

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the other side of it doesn't have
enough weight to hold up against that.

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And so it's just this problem.
And the better those stocks do because all

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that money's going into it, the
more money chases them. And so you

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just reach a breaking point. And
who knows where it is. We think

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you're getting close, but what could
be wrong? Been wrong before? But

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you reach a breaking point where everybody
hits by all the time. Eventually they'll

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all be hitting sell at the same
time, and then you got a market

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that goes no bid. So is
it better? Like if you're just an

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if you're advising an individual, do
tell them, yeah, go into those

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seven or eight stocks or do you
say get out while you can, or

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do both? Or do you like
I have those like get those stocks and

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then diversify. Yeah, so that's
kind of what we do, right.

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So but we've got we've got hedges
in place constantly. So if that starts

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to drop, it'll counterbalance, or
it'll just kick them out automatically. But

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really, in a market like this, you have to own something. You

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have to own some of them,
right, because you know you're not going

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to be able to keep up with
market performance if you don't, right,

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regardless of the underlying performance. What
I honestly would tell people at home doing

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it on their own is, you
know, if you own high quality businesses

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like even an Apple, or you
know, an Apple is Apples another.

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I mean, Apple's a beast of
a company, but the value their valuation

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has exploded this year while they've had
two consecutive quarters of declining revenues and declining

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earnings and declining margins. Right,
So it's just bizarre world. Right,

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if you want to buy and hold
for a long time, you know I

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would. I don't think Apple's going
to ruin you. Like I said,

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I think they're a great company.
But what I would say is, um,

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I think this is the tough Well, I don't think this is the

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toughest market I've ever navigated. And
I've been running a portfolio live right.

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We don't buy mutual funds and ETFs
for our clients. We actually manage the

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underlying portfolios. I've been doing that
since oh seven, so we've gone through

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some rough spots, you know,
or seven. I'm just like trying to

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picture that that you were doing this
when you were seven. Seven? Yeah,

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seven, Like the cutest visual ever. Yeah, that's how I became

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a billionaire at age nineteen. Right, I was like, look at you

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with your big brains, Zach at
eight seven? Now I was discussing stock

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Okay, well still that is adorable. Seriously though, that is the cutest

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visual, though, is to see
Zach at age seven, like just crunching

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the numbers. Yeah, I don't
have time for dinner. I've got to

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hedge these positions. I'm not playing
a little, I'm doing numbers. Yeah.

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What advice would I give to the
individual doing on your own? Well,

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obviously unbiased, but I mean I
just I would just say, this

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is not a market to learn in. Um, it's it's it's it's just

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not your grandparents' stock market. And
I would say to be highly cautious.

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The other thing, here's the other
thing that makes this so bizarre to me,

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is you're running up, You're running
up these stocks that two prices that

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make this I mean no sense at
all, and you're doing it when you

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can make five times the amount of
interest that taking zero risk that you've been

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able to make it at any time
over the last fifteen or sixteen years.

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So you're just looking at people going
what on earth are you doing? And

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um, you know, but it's
hard, guys. You know, I'm

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not the first person to say this. My grandfather, you say it's me

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all the time. Just because something
is inevitable doesn't mean it's imminent. Timing

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of these things is really hard.
I just know that when we look at

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history, bubbles are not a new
thing. They happen, things get irrationally

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expensive, people chase it. This
goes back. This goes back to as

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long as Isaac Newton, Isaac Newton, the Great Isaac Newton lost all of

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his money betting on the South Sea
Company right in a bubble, and he

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knew it was a bubble, and
then it kept going up and he put

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all of his money into it right
at the top and then got killed.

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Right the guy that like basically brought
modern astronomy to us, right, So

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not a dumb guy. So this
is a tale as old as time,

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and it's one of the toughest parts
of investing. A couple of my mentors

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that have had unbelievable success being money
managers, they've got it. They both

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say the same thing. If you're
doing the right thing at the top of

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these cycles, you're probably gonna lose
clients because they're gonna sit there and go,

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why are we not going up?
And you're like, because this doesn't

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make any sense and it's going to
crash. But every day that it keeps

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going up, everybody believes it more
and everybody sticks with it, and so

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you know, we just sit there
and go, look, I think there's

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a lot of companies out there paying
really good dividends that aren't expensive, that

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are actually stupid cheap. I think
we can make five percent taking zero risk,

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and we, just as risk managers
with our clients money, just go,

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you know what, now is not
a time those things might keep going

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up. That's fine. You know, if my clients make five or six

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percent in the market's up fifteen,
I'm not going to be happy about it.

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But making five to six percent doesn't
ruin somebody's retirement. Losing fifty percent

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does. Right, That is a
perfect way to that, and that is

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why it's so important for people to
know where they can get more advice from

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you. So where is that?
Yeah, so you can go to the

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podcast. We do a show every
week, Know Your Risk Radio. It

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goes it's on several different radio stations
on the West Coast and then but it

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is podcasted out right, so they
can find us on iTunes. Just go

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into iTunes or or anywhere else that
has not iTunes. I guess with the

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Apple podcast, any podcast app,
Spotify, whatever it is. Just go

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and type in Know your Risk Radio
will pop up and hopefully we can shed

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some light. And we don't just
talk about what we think. We also

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interview other money managers, get other
perspectives, and hopefully try to break things

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down. You know, you guys
are a perfect example. You're like,

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oh, we don't know anything you
do. You just don't know the vernacular,

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right, you know what I mean? You get the concepts, it's

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just you don't know the code words. So we try to make it digestible

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for the people that don't do this
for a living. Yeah. Well,

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Zach Abraham, Chief Investment ob Circle
Work Capital Management. Check them out now

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Your Risk Radio dot com. Thank
you. Investment advisory services offered through Trek

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Financial LLC n SEC Registered investment advisor. Information presentatives for educational purposes only.

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It should not be considered specific investment
advice, does not taken to consideration your

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specific situation, and does not intend
to make an offer or solicitation for the

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sail or purchase of any securities or
investment strategies. Investments involve risk and are

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not guaranteed, and past performance is
no guarantee of future results. For specific

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tax advice on strategy, consoled with
the qualified tax professional before implementing any strategy

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discussed here in