Hello, and welcome to the Dynasty Do Podcast. I'm your host, Corey
Evans. Thank you for checking out this week's episode. It is titled twenty
twenty four Breakout Candidates. The term breakout is subjective to me. It means
making that tier jump in value, rising in market stock, or just pure
perceived trade value. I don't have five obvious names. Some are polarizing,
others you could see coming, and I think they're going to break out in
fantasy football this upcoming season. Before I get to that, I wanted to
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Five Breakout candidates for twenty twenty four. No specific order. Kicking it off
with Kendre Miller, running back of the New Orleans Saints. He's twenty two
in June. Still twenty one puts him on the map as one of the
younger running backs in the NFL at alone on par with some rookie running backs
from this year's current crop. Hendrey Miller has an ideal build for the RB
position at six feet to twenty A third rounder last year out of TCU,
production wasn't stellar. Forty one for one fifty six and one score for a
suboptimal three point eight yards per clip added ten receptions for a buck seventeen no
touchdowns as a receiver that was on eleven targets in only eight games played,
so a very small sample size the data to work with dealt with various ailments.
More to come on that lack of durability soon. All that being said,
that sounds negative. However, Kendre did manage to post two standout performances
in twenty twenty three. It was Week five at New England twelve rushes thirty
seven yards for reception fifty three yards, and Week eighteen was a true breakout
game thirteen for seventy three and a touchdown on the ground and one reception for
six yards. What we need to see is more consistency and then it can
become a breakout candidate. In twenty twenty four, we saw the emergence in
those two weeks. Specifically last season, you have in terms of baffield competition,
Alba Kamara the RB one under contract until twenty twenty six. Jamal Williams,
who where he was in Detroit the year before to where he was year
one in New Orleans was night and day in terms of production and efficiency,
is also under contract to twenty twenty six, a possible out in dead cap
of two point three four million in twenty twenty five. I would not be
shocked if Kamara remains the leader of a committee in New Orleans and Kendre Miller
has the eventual leg up barring health cooperating, of course, over Jamal or
it's more of a split than when we saw last season. It's worth noting
that Kendre had a dynamic college resume with a two twenty four thirteen ninety nine
seventeen rushing log in twenty twenty two with TCU with twenty nine receptions across three
years in school. Showcase sceing the potential for three down upside durability, as
I alluded to, is the one question mark or asterisk surrounding Miller the uncertainty
MCL sprain in the college football playoffs back in December of twenty twenty two.
He had a knee sprain in August to twenty twenty three, a hamstring strain
in August to twenty twenty three, and then an ankle sprain in November of
twenty twenty three. So you're seeing a lot of different either soft tissue or
knee slash ankle issues that have plagued Kendre late in his college career or early
on in his NFL tenure. From a pure film perspective, Miller offers she
out of a cannon acceleration and plus field vision, which is why I was
a fan of him pre draft in twenty twenty three, and now as a
sophomore, as a somewhat by low candidate, if you will, in an
ideal scenario, I think Miller can complement Kamara in twenty twenty four opportunity to
take over leadback duties and as soon as this upcoming season, at some point
or in twenty twenty five, when Kamera can become expendable to the Saints from
a cap situation. If ken Dre Miller remains healthy. In twenty twenty four,
I see a breakout on the horizon, if only for a possible improvement
when it comes to fantasy environment or offensive situation infrastructure. With the hiring of
OC Clint Kubiak, who is known to utilize the running back not only as
a rusher but receiver for personnel usage on the RB three RB four borderline,
for me a path to standalone value in twenty twenty four. In terms of
pure market value. Right now, Kendrey Miller is probably worth a twenty four
mid to eight second, if not early third, and a one quarterback or
super f format Quentin Johnston. There's already some mental or just verbal fatigue when
it comes to QJ. I think it's wise to pump the brakes on him
being label to bust this early on in his career. He'll be twenty three
in September six four, two fifteen, So your prototypical wide out one build
if it all pans out as a pro. In the NFL twenty first overall
pick last year from TCU thirty eight four to thirty one and two for eleven
point three yards perception. It was sixty seven targets and seventeen games played as
the PPR wide out seventy four was disappointing. Absolutely, it was why he
has the bust label linked to his name. He only exceeded thirty yards in
four contests. That's a low ceiling, but also a lack of evolvement for
being fair and unbiased. I usually like to zig when other zag when it
comes to dynasty value, and that's primarily the case right now for qj's overall
dynasty trend in value. It's going in the wrong direction or negative. The
hate has simply gone too far. Are his drops route running, overall raw
ability to be a complete receiver and under the hood metrics like creating separation uninspiring?
Yes, of course sure. However, small sample size of only sixty
seven targets. The same reason why you're not writing off Pandre Miller should be
the same reason why you're giving Quentin Johnson the benefit of the doubt to emerge
as a sophomore. Both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams out of the picture in
LA, which leaves QJ Joshua Palmer as former veteran options for Justin Herbert to
target. Then you have the new editions of second round sensation, Lab mccacky,
seventh rounder Brennan Rice, the free agent acquisition of DJ Shark. So
there's plenty of depth, which I can agree is a downside for Johnston's outlook.
What I'm most encouraged by is charger GM. Joe Hortzes said he believes
QJ is quote really going to launch end quote as a starter in twenty twenty
four. That hyperbole, of course, but the word that I'm taking away
from that conversation is starter. If Johnson is a starter opposite Joshua Palmer and
even Lam mccacky in the slot or out wide as a hybrid weapon, that's
what you want to hear. Reps volume, target share, snap percentage is
what QJ needs to take a leap forward. It should not be all difficult
to improve on the thirty eight four point thirty one to two log as a
rookie. As a reminder, Johnston was a polarizing yet at the same time
fascinating receiver prospect who went sixty ten, sixty nine, and six in twenty
twenty two. At TCU and tested well forty and a Halvings vertical eleven foot
two inch broad showcase in athleticism, we cove it or have seen after the
catch for a six four two fifteen talent at the position, not to mention
QJ average nineteen yards per reception in school across one hundred and fifteen total receptions.
The talent is there, it's refining the skill set and developing more in
year two. The downside, as I mentioned, is the potential lack of
target share consistency from Gerson Herbert. That's not a direct reflection of Herbert's talent
or what he potentially wants to do individually. It's now the new offense of
Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roehman being run oriented, where target share could once again
be difficult to come by for any chargers wide out in twenty twenty four,
even without the presence of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. What would I spend
to Acchoir Johnston right now? A second seems fair, But I'm telling you
there's so much negativity surrounding his stock that you could swoop in for potentially a
twenty four third if it's early or even a twenty five to third and another
future third. If you have to give up two thirds to take the risk
on what was a first round talent in ADP this time last year, I'm
all for it, especially when QJ could be a breakout candidate, but it's
not being considered by most people in redraft, let alone dynasty when he could
easily bounce back in twenty twenty four. How about Chase Brown running back on
the Bengals twenty four five ten, two eleven ideal size or frame fifth rounder
out of Illinois in twenty twenty three, he chipped in a forty four for
one seventy nine rushing line, four point winnards per clip, and fourteen one
fifty six and one as a receiver that was on fifteen targets in only twelve
games played as a rookie last year. He displayed big play a Week thirteen
at Jacksonville nine rush to sixty one yards. Week fourteen, first Indianapolis eight
totes twenty five yards but three receptions eighty yards and a touchdown. I still
remember that play right now. It was a screen or underneath route and basically
Chase Brown took it to the house as a mismatch in the open field.
The negativity surrounding Chase Brown, if there is any as opposed to being optimistic
about a year to outlook, would be able to He spent five years in
school, so a late breakout age talent or advanced age running back prospect.
It was one year with Western Michigan and then four with Illinois. The best
campaign came in twenty twenty two with absurd production three twenty eight sixteen forty three
ten on the ground in twenty seven to two forty and three. As a
receiver, I am in on Chase Brown at cost which shouldn't cost you much
more than a third and twenty four draft capital, or probably a second and
twenty five if you willing to sacrifice that one round gap by sending out picks
a year away. With Joe Mixon out of the picture, Zach Moss is
the presumed Darby one in Tocinnati, but I forced committee at the very least,
Moss can be the odden favorite for volume, while Brown should push for
a prominent role as a committee member. Chase Brown has an enticing athletic profile
as well. Four point four to three forty forty inch vertical ten foot seven
inch broad again at five ten, two eleven. He not only passes the
analytics test, but when you watch film with him, there's explosion burst,
there's a hop in a step as he gains steam upfield that running backs either
have or don't, and Chase Brown does. He, like Kendre Miller,
is on the RB three RB four borderline forming in twelve team league, So
potentially even a Fox candidate in a ten team structure entering a sophomore season,
if people are forgetting or sleeping on the potential Chase Brown in your league in
favor of the shiny new toys of the twenty twenty four rookie running backs that
you can select in the late second if not early the third of rookie drafts,
then pivot acquire Chase Brown, who's primed for a virtually locked in role
without the president of Joe Mixon, It's Moss, it's Brown, and not
much else. I think Brown is one of the best kept seek it's among
running backs to breakout in twenty twenty four. Time for a quick break.
I'll be back with two more breakout candidates before I do. The best spot
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so be sure to check that out. Be right back after a quick
intermission discussing two more breakout candidates. Next up is Jalen Tolbert for God and
Man already in Dallas. He's twenty five, so a little bit older than
you might have guessed. Six' one nine five third round selection in twenty
twenty two out of South Alabama, twenty two to sixty eight and two twelve
point two yards perception with thirty six targets last season. The encouraging sign despite
the less than optimal production was four hundred and seventy seven snaps. He only
had eighty nine snaps as a rookie. Dallas has relatively thin wide receiver depth
behind Ceedee Lamb, Brandon Cooks, Tolbert himself. You have six round rookie
Ryan Flournoy, and not much else of note after the departure of Michael Gallup
to the Raiders, a lot of old veterans or just pure camp bodies that
probably will make the team. So it's a situation where Tolbert could earn the
wide receiver three job out of camp and be a force or target for Dak
Prescott come week one of the twenty twenty four campaign. It's hard to remember
now entering his third season, but Jalen closed out his college tenyure at South
Alabama with back to back standout seasons of sixty four, ten, eighty five
and eight and twenty twenty and eighty two, fourteen, seventy four and eight
and twenty twenty one while averaging seventeen point six yards perception on one ndred and
seventy eight career catches. So that profile, if you throw it into the
mix of wide outs in the twenty twenty two, twenty three, or twenty
four classes would stand out as someone we'd really be interested in as a prospect.
The issue is it's been lackless of production with minimal volume in years one
to two as a professional with the Cowboys. Another factor working in Tolbert's favor
is a speed four point four nine forty with his size at sixty one ninety
five makes him a mismatch out of the slot or a perimeter target like Michael
Galboi was for Dak Prescott towards a sideline comeback routes or even in the red
zone. Is Tolbert going to surpass Brandon Cook's possibly Ceedee Lamb. Definitely not,
but at cost I've seen him dropped or a free agent in some dynasty
leagues. Could be at most a third, best case, fourth or fifth.
I don't think Tolbert is of high demand in any format right now,
so before the hype builds in training camp in the preseason, now is the
best time to acquire him and attempt to find a diamond the rough in terms
of a potent'll breakout candidate wide receiver, and last, but not least,
it's a veteran tight end who I think could finally emerge as a tight end
one in fantasy, at least consistently. It's noahfanse in Seattle twenty seven this
November six, four two forty nine, twentieth overall pick by Denver all the
way back in twenty nineteen out of Iowa, so you know that Iowa's tight
end university fits that mold. Three campaigns with Denver two at Seattle to date
with annual production of forty five, sixty two and three, sixty two,
six, seventy three and three, sixty eight, six seventy and four,
fifty four, eighty six and four, and then last year thirty two four
to fourteen no touchdown. So that was a bit sour in terms of immediate
reflection on value target totals of that span of sixty six, ninety three,
ninety sixty three and forty three. No offense needs to exceed one hundred targets.
If he does again, we're talking about a title one candidate that nobody's
really thinking about considering at a paper thin landscape outside of eight to ten names.
Signed a two year, twenty one million dollar new contract this offseason with
eleven P four nine million guaranteed no more Will Disley. It's a bear tight
end room outside in Seattle with fourth round er AJ Barner and Farah Brown.
For the most part, he's more of a blocker than natural pass capture.
What I like most for Fant is the presence of new oc Ryan Grubb,
who was known for his passing scheme from Washington with Michael Pennix, Junior,
romadoons Ay, Jalen Polk, J McMillan. You're probably thinkings are not tight
ends, sure, but then again, Noah Fance is more of a glorified
pass catcher than traditional inline weapon. He's been used as both a blocker and
out wide or into slot pass caucture, and I think there's room for growth
or ability to maximize a skill sets, which Grub could do. Obviously,
it's great news for DK Metcalf, JSN Tyler Lockett's. The marketing efficiency that
I see is Noah fan He is someone being slept on or under utilized,
which could take a complete change of the direction or course. In twenty twenty
four as a feels str seams stretcher or underneath outlet for Gino Smith. Sam
Howe, whoever is a quarterback for Seattle this upcoming season. Sure fan is
more of a tight end two to begin this year than tight end one,
but the upside exists. I don't see a top five to ten range of
outcomes, but sneaking into the top twelve to become a tight end one or
spike weeks within the calendar year is certainly possible. So if you're a week
at tight end, Noah fense is one of my favorite targets to acquire right
now, especially in tight end premium or even two tight end leagues where you
really could put up goose eggs or very little production unless you have consistent outlets
in the passing attack, and that is no offense. We know his role
is guaranteed, assuming health cooperates. Thank you for listening. Hope you all
enjoyed my twenty twenty four Breakout Candidates episode? Do you agree disagree? Who
should throw into the mix? I don't want to put too many popular names.
By that, I mean players that are in near consensus top fifty seventy
five, one hundred and ADP or expected value. These are, for the
most part, players outside of that value spectrum. Quentin Johnson might be the
exception to that rule, but there's just so much hate towards him that I
thought he fit the criteria enough so quick recap of my breakout candidates Candre Miller,
Quentin Johnston, Chase Brown, Jalen Tolbert and Noah Fans. Thank you
all for listening. Don't hesitate to reach out. Take advantage of the twenty
percent off roster call promotion. My calendar does fill up quick. I will,
of course make time which have to be flexible, and work with each
other to lock down a date that works for each of us until next time.
This is the Dynasty're checking out. Hope you all get great rest of
the week. Talk to you next week. See you