And now we've got the seasonality as always going for gold. January is usually
good month, and we've got central banks buying gold aggressively. There were two
straight years of thousand ton uptakes of gold from the central banks, which is
here. You know, those are really big numbers in the context of a
you know, four thousand ton a year output from the world's minds. You
are listening to Carrie Leutz's Financial Survival Network, where you get valuable information you
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Welcome. You are watching and listening to the Financial Survival Network. I'm your
host, Carrie Lutz. John Rabino is with us. Now you all had
a wonderful, wonderful New Year's It's in January twod twenty twenty four. This
is the time where we look ahead at what kind of year it's going to
be. We forget about how awful twenty twenty three was in so many different
respects, and yet the world didn't end. John, you know here we
are. Stuff is still happening, you know, inflation is still inflating.
Stuff is still getting more expensive. And well, what happened today the Nasdaq
type the first day of twenty twenty four trading? Hey, Jerry, Yeah,
that was that was an interesting first dand trading because stocks in general were
okay, but tech talks got smacked and a big part of that was Apple.
You know, it looks like the world is saturated with iPhones now and
so Apple sales are not going to be as robust as they used to be,
and that is starting to come out now. People are starting to get
that. And so Apple stock was down pretty hard today, but not just
Apple. You know a lot of other tech stalks were down. Let's see
Intel and do you count Netflix as a tech stock? I kind of do,
but yeah, well our tech park Medium, that's a cloud stock.
Yeah, it's a cloud stock. Anyhow, they were both down hard today
too, and that that could easily be a sign of things to come,
because they're wildly over valued, first of all, and stocks in general are
widely over or wildly overvalue. The SAP five hundreds p eager shows something like
twenty five and normally in recessions and bear markets, it gets down to twelve
or whatever, you know, so we could we had easily see big stocks
be cut in half just to be fairly valued for what's coming. So I
think what happened in the NASAC today is, you know, one day doesn't
really tell you that much, but when the bear market comes, days like
today are going to become norm for several months, and you know we could
easily be heading into that right now. All right, well, hey,
I am the first two of it. I never saw the Santa Claus rally
coming, but it would be appropriate that first trading day of the year.
Santa Claus. He's back in the in the closet along with all the all
the Christmas decorations for next year. Right. Well, in December, the
FED announced that it was going to stop raising interest rates and start cutting interest
rates, so that, you know, perfect timing for a Santa Claus rally,
right, because that's you know, a massive relief rally when when people
think that tight money is over. But what's you know, what we never
seem to understand every cycle is that the FED stopping raising interest rates is not
the same thing as the FED easy because everybody's death that has to roll over
is still going to roll over at today's higher interest rates. So monetary conditions
are tightening or a big part of the economy still and they'll continue to tighten
until interest rates go way back down. And that's it's not happening yet.
You know, we're still in the high threes right on the in your treasury.
So if we get back up into the forest, we get back up
to what you know, everybody thought was the terminal rate for this cycle.
So you know, monetary policy is still technically tightening for a lot of different
entities out there, and that once people start to figure that out. But
it's going to be a long time before we actually get easy money, even
if the FED cuts a couple of times twenty four yeah, so yeah,
yeah, well, I mean we can't function with money this tight without the
economy blowing. We have to get yeah we have right easy money? Yes,
yeah, No, nobody can handle interest rates at this level going forward,
So the FED and all the the central banks are going to have to
ease aggressively, but they're going to need a crisis to make them go back
to QT on steroids and yeah, get us down as zero or negative interest
rates. That's going to take a big thing to happen, and there's no
shortage of candidates for that, right from geopolitics, to commercial real estate,
to consumer finances, you know, you name it. And something bad is
going to happen pretty soon in the Fed is they're to then go into full
on easing mode. Hey, let's look at the two year because the two
year is really crucial to two year treasury. You know, it finished off
the day at four point two four four, just like a month ago it
was up at five and a quarter. Okay, it was five and a
half because the Fed funds rates got to stay ahead of the two year,
Right, and now we're looking inverted yield curve because the two year is it
four point two seven seven or four point two four to four? Rather it
opened at two seven seven and the ten years at three eighty six. Right?
Does that sound inverted to you? Yeah? Well it? And you
know, interest rates around four percent are still too high for this economy on
a lubber's economy like this, because you know that still implies a six and
a half or seven percent mortgage rate, right, and the average mortgage out
there is around three percent, which means you know, mortgage rates dropping from
eight percent to six percent. That doesn't unlock all the people that are locked
into the three percent mortgages and can never merge, right, So that still
has to happen. Yeah, yeah, I mean for you know, for
you to buy a new house with a six percent mortgage, why would I
do? Why would you do that? That's right, you know, it's
got to be, you know, otherwise an incredible deal. Well, one
thing that could make that happen is if house prices go down by half from
here. You know, you have these mathematical adjustments that have to happen,
and they can't happen with the current set up. So one of the parts
that we've set up have to change. And you know, I don't know
what it will be. I yeah, you know, normally a recession is
the mechanism or the adjustments to happen. And there's no reason to think that
it won't happen this year again in the cycle, and we won't have this
soft landing that everybody's talking about, because you know, credit card debt is
the trillion dollars and personal interest in spiking. You can't row an economy organically
with new debts. If personal interest expense is doubled in the last year and
will double again in the next year if nothing happens. So all of this
sudden and you I think you said me the thing about student loans. Yeah,
they kicked back in, but nobody's paying. Imagine if you we've had
a student loan moratorium and nobody showed up, you know, once it ended.
Right, It's exactly what's happening in China too. I mean, as
bad as things are here, they're way worse than China because China's experience a
multifaceted collapse, meaning their economy is collapsing. All that nice new infrastructure they
built, which was tofu drag that's collapsing, moral collapse, Communist party collapse.
I mean, we're kind of like mirroring each other, except that we
don't really have the infrastructure collapse because all of our hundred year old infrastructure was
built way better than we ever expected it to be. But our collapse is
happening on multiple levels as well. Right, Well, you know we've got
infrastructure issues too, and the way the current infrastructure plan probably won't deal with
it because is you know what we have that's in collapses, roads, and
bridges and airports and things like that. And if we put a bunch of
money into offshore wind plants or something like that, that doesn't fix our bridges
or anything. So we're still kind of in that that place too. You
know, you pretty much look at any society that you want to look at
right now, and there are signs of collapse. Germanys of nightmare right now.
You know, China is obvious, the US is is not as as
obvious. But when you dig a little deeper, we got very serious financial
problems too. And but Germany might be the worst of everybody. My god,
they and it was all self inflicted. Germany basically committed suicide. And
there's no other way to put it. I mean, Angela Merkel five years
ago was seen as this solid conservative leader, you know, it doesn't make
stupid mistakes. But it turns out everything she did was a stupid mistake.
Yeah, and that's the truth. Yeah, Unlimited immigration, developing a reliance
on Russian natural gas, and then going along with a NATO plan to start
World War three over Ukraine, which got the pipeline blown up by the US.
And now basically Germany is doing a thing called the industrialization because they allowed
all this stuff to happen, and their economy used to be based on taking
cheap natural gas and turning it into industrial products and exporting those products. Well,
now the natural gas is gone, or the cheap natural gas is gone,
so they're basically having to shut down. And the only reason the Eurozone
still exists is because Germany was backing everybody up via the ECD. So you
take that away and there's no real rationale or no real scenario in which the
euros stays a functioning currency and the EU stays a functioning trade block. So
you know, Germany takes Europe with it, and it doesn't seem to be
a solution. I don't see it, that's for sure. It definitely don't
see it. In the meantime, we ended we ended twenty twenty three with
gold above two thousand, and it seems to be sticking there for the time
being. And you know, at this point in time, I kind of
take predictions about gold price with a grain because everybody's been so wrong for it
so long. But at this point, though, it looks like we're getting
the higher highs and higher lows, and the trend is in our favor.
Yeah, nothing's guaranteed yet. With gold, it could you know, in
two bad days, it could be back low two thousand, but it is
held up there for quite a while. You know. I think it finished
the year at the highest ever yearly clones. I mean, it made its
highest ever monthly closed before that. So these these are good numbers. And
now we've got the seasonality as always going for gold. January is usually a
good month. And we've got central banks buying gold aggressively. There were two
straight years of thousand ton uptakes of gold from the central banks, which is
huge. You know, those are really big numbers in the context of a
you know, four thousand ton a year output from the world's minds. So
we've got the biggest, most deep pocketed buyers in the world buying aggressively.
And now we've got cost Co selling gold bars and selling out at which time
they did any end. And then Walmart she started doing the same thing.
And now both Costco and Walmart are selling silver as well as gold, so
at both ends of the spectrum. You know, the small guys at Costco
buying individualizes of gold who never could do it before. Now I think can
impulse buy precious metals, and then the central banks, the biggest players in
the global financial system, aggressively buying gold. So I think there's a lot
of fun to me reasons to think or to hope that this is a time
in which gold starts the next leg of a serious bull market. So you
know, here's hoping, but I think it's it's totally possible. And the
FED is easing again. Yeah, you know, it's not easy aggressively yet,
but it's starting to and gold usually embarks on a bull run when when
the FED stops tightening, equities have to wait for aggressive these gold starts sooner
and you know it passes prolonged. Still, then this is the time,
in relating with gold's relationship with the fad what it would normally start moving.
So you got a lot of favorable factors in the gold space right now,
and who knows, I think this could be an excellent year for precious metals.
I totally agree with you, Na. You know everyone said thinks inflation
is beat. Now you and I are old enough to remember Gerald Ford's win
campaign whip inflation now. So I'm starting a new site called the Inflation Cafe,
and we're going to start a Whip Inflation Now campaign. And let me
just tell you how I got inspired by it. I was at an infamous
coffee establishment that shall go unnamed, but that basically allows any antisocial behavior to
take place within their confines regardless. And I looked at the price of my
latte and it was seven bucks, and I said, then, and it
was skimpy. They shorted me, and I said to him, you know,
you don't sell coffee here, you sell inflation. And you're the inflation
cafe. Hence the site is being set up now and the inflation Cafe was
born. So my first f it is going to be to start a win
campaign to whip inflation now, because there's so much we can all do about
it, right, yeah, we can take care of that at a hard
baba. You know, does it work so well for the last time it
was tried? Right, You've got all these people saying, now, oh,
why are people so pessimistic? Inflation is down to next to nothing,
the economy is growing. We actually have a good economy. Why don't people
see that? Paul Krudwin, you know, Humber Brothers. But what they
don't get is that if you have a big bout of inflation and then prices
stop going up. That doesn't fix things for the people who now have to
pay thirty percent more for all of life's necessities. So life gets hard and
stays hard for them even after rice increases stopped. So you know life is
going to be hard. Voters are getting pissed off no matter what until we
have deflation, and then deflation is painful in its own line. So there's
we blow up when we have deep decision, you know that. Yeah,
they love inflation because that paper is over all the mistakes. But when we
have true deflation, banks blow up, which is why we can never have
true deflation in this system because too many, too many over leverage entities will
blow up. Like you said, so so we have you know, the
vast majority of people in the country are paying way too much for life's necessities.
There their wages are not rising nearly enough to make up for it,
and they're suffering. So the people who don't understand this, first of all,
I'm surprised they don't understand it. It's not a very complicated idea.
But there are political implications to this, one of which is populism. Selves.
In this kind of an environment, you know you can if you run
on a platform. Look, listen, these guys are screwing you. Over
Look how hard your life is. I'm going to go in there and I'm
going to clean house and take back what's yours. You win, And I
think that's the political reality the US and most of the rest of the West.
Oh an ad And I'm going to close the borders, you know,
and you add that too. I'm going to get your prices back downs.
And you're very hard to beat as a politician. So I think you know,
the Republicans discovered this goal. The Democrats have to discover it too.
So it's an arms race of populism. That's what we got. Well,
the it's so ironic, John, you know, the who is it bitching
most about the runaway situation at the border? Now it's all the blue cities.
Now, I read that Governor Abbot of Texas had gratuitously provided eighty five
thousand people with the bus and airplane tickets to various blue cities like Chicago,
New York. And these are sanctuary cities. They're supposed to have their arms
wide open, you know, statue of liberty. Send us your beat and
your dreary and all that, and they're the ones that are bit the loudest
about it. So I think we're on the brink of a solution. But
who's ever running the show in DC wants this situation Because the NGOs get paid
like one hundred thousand dollars per illegal alien, and all the Obama phones that
get handed out, and the free medical care and the free food all that.
Obviously somebody is profiting by this and they want it. They like the
situation the way it is. But for the rest of the country, driving
it further and further into bankruptcy, maybe not such a great thing. Well,
yeah, open borders have always been attracted to the elite. On the
Republican side, you know, that's cheap factory labor can't complain about working conditions
because they're afraid of being decorded. On the Democrat side, it's voters who
depend on the government and will therefore vote for the party of government, which
is in Democrats. So both of the I mean, the powerful people in
both groups have invested interest in open borders, But it's the ninety five percent
who aren't in those two groups who are being hurt by this. And I
think the backlash is coming fast. I sent you that chart that we talked
about the Live where. Yeah, we'll put that up. We'll put a
link to the chart in the show notes. I'll try to embed it on
the on the thumbnail if I can. Okay, because new births from illegal
immigrants now exceeds the number of new births from American citizens, can you insane?
Yeah? Situation? You know that that is not well. Actually,
if the chart is right, and I didn't do the basic research or anything,
I just pulled this chart. But if the chart is true, then
that means that we're basically committing national suicide in fact, pretty out. It's
astounding that that I would never guess that we've gotten that far into this,
but you know, we're there, and the pendulum is going to swing back
so hard and so fast at some point that oh, yeah, it's just
going to shock the five percent who think everything is okay. But we know
we we've seen this before. Man, you know, this is just the
yeah, La, they don't live in reality. You know, these people
do not live in reality of like having to get a job and having to
meet bills and all this. The policymakers, it's like the generals in the
army or you know, eating philet mignon and the troops are of an MREs
that are moldy. You know, well what it's like. It's a case
of different realities. You know, if you're a billionaire, or you're the
CEO of a company, or you're a politician with a safe seat, or
if you're a bureaucrat that's been appointed by politicians of the safe seats, and
you're any of those guys, life is good, and you don't understand so
many people are so discontented because you don't live in the world of you know,
having to stretch your paycheck all the way to the end of the month
and then seeing cost Co raise their prices by thirty percent of the basic stuff
you buy. You know, you don't have to say it. You know
you don't go shopping. So yeah, now this is this is not unusual.
This is the standard aristocracy script, right, you know, you change
the rules so they don't apply to you anymore, and you live that and
happy. You don't understand why the peasants are revolting until they cut your head
off. So that's coming. It is coming, you know, metaphorically speaking,
hopefully, metaphorically speaking, that's coming pretty sure. Yeah, no,
I totally totally agree with you. But but you know, when you live
just for today, then you don't have to think about it. So what
about what's going on here in Harvard? Here this lady or like, I
looked at her and I said, she's the president of Harvard. Before I
knew anything about her, you know what, she was testifying before or before
the House and wouldn't condemn genocidal protests and all that, But she just seemed
to be like somewhere else. And now she's a serial plagiarizer and they keep
finding more and more stuff that she plagiarizes verbatim. And I guess intellectual integrity,
little things like that don't matter to Harvard anymore. Well, are could
our colleges have become insane asylums where the inmates run the asylum, and the
Harvard pick is a perfect example of that. Is she couldn't she couldn't explain
why calls for the genocide of Jews would be unacceptable on her campus. But
yeah, once people looked more closely at her, it wasn't just that one
inability to connect two ideas together. It was the fact that. Let's be
blunt. He's the ultimate diversity higher. You know, she so Africa has
a lot of boxes there. Yeah, she talked a lot of box checks
a lot of boxes. And it turns out that she has as a tenured
Harvard professor, she has eleven papers published. And that's all. That's that's
like, you know, your third year in as a postdoc or something like
that, you should have that many papers published. That's a week a week
of John Rabino's substack. Then come on. But and her Harvard was ranked
dead last on a scale of freedom of speech among colleges. So she was
kind of a you know, would be dictator, it would be woke dictator
and a really inadequate academic who got the job because Harvard liked the idea of
having somebody who ticks a lot of boxes in. And you we are now,
you know, and I would be surprised if the rest of the Ivy
League was any better. So you're going to see a house cleaning. I
think, now that's you know, everybody, because now that's that's a Pulitzer
Prize winning beat for a reporter. Right. You go to these colleagues and
you find out who the frauds are and you publicize them. Yeah, expect
the expect the press to dig into this and expect these these colleges that basically
just been you know, uh, fraudulent all these years in the last decade
or so, and expect them to get cleared out in a hurry or be
publicly humilitated and use all their all their donors and stuff for them. That's
the allimate nightmare. People stop. They don't care if kids don't show up
because they can always replace straight A students. There's plenty of them out there
in the world of great inflation. But if the one hundred million dollar building
naming donors stop showing up, then that's a catastrophe. And that's what a
lot of these guys are looking at it think. Yeah totally. Hey,
I remember I once read the definition of diversity is celebrating our differences while pretending
not to notice them. Yeah, yeah, because because you know, it's
a diversity of outward appearance. Yeah, but not diversity, yeah, not
diversity of thought. In these schools, they're they're absolutely monolithic. When you
look at the opinions and the political affiliations of the people running these schools,
and you can get away without it. So you can get away with all
kinds of things in good times. What worn buffet's old clothed about. Only
when the tide goes out do you see the swimming naked? Then suddenly the
tide has gone out on high powered colleges and they are boy, they're naked,
and they're not the kind of people you really want to see naked on
the beach, right, you know, make it and ugly at the same
time, Look at all the law firms, yeah, New York, big
law firms that said we're not hiring Harvard grads anymore, and that's going to
spread, and that's the kind of thing that they care about, because it's
like, oh, well, our graduates were hired by the top ten law
firms and they're making X amount, and that's their like prestige, that's their
halo. And once they don't have that, I don't know what they do
have, because honestly, if you know the law school that I went to,
I would put my legal education up against Harvard's law school any day of
the week. More of our people passed the bar exam in New York than
Harvard grads. So isn't that the ultimate test first time out, you would
think it would be you know, I do a once a month thing on
Substackle, Art of the Collapse about all the means and the satire and stuff,
and I started this last one with Harvard because the meme averse has just
had a field day with this. There's two things that I ended up posting.
One is a bumper sticker that said my kid did not go to Harvard,
because you know, there's these bumper stickers about my kid, isn't Harvard
and stuff like that on now it's reversed. And the other is a Dilbert
cartoon where there's an interview, job interview, and the boss says, you
know, I assume you went to college, but I don't see you in
your resume anymore, and the yeah, the guy says, well, yeah
I went to college and the h and the boss says it was Harvard,
wasn't it. I'll see myself out. I love it. Yeah, you
love it, And that's you know, that's real. Now people actually think
Harvard is a laughing stuck so yeah, as well it should be as well,
it should should be. I mean, there are so many law firms
that have just stopped and then there's major hedge fund guys that have pulled back
there donations to these ivy leagues and once they're just hoping it's going to blow
over and everyone will forget it. But things like this don't so much blow
over so quick, do they. Well, no, now, and this
this is a battle of very powerful lobbies right now. Man, It's interesting
to see a clash of people with this kind of political power out there.
So I'm curious about where it goes because it's fascinating so far. And I
just you know, you've got to hope all the turmoil ends sooner rather than
later. But there's no guarantee that it does at all. This could be
a multi year story. Yeah, yeah, I think this will go on
because this is a This is all part of the cultural war taking place not
just in the US but all over the world, and more of what we
have to look forward to for twenty twenty four eight. If we can finish
twenty twenty four in the same place where we are now, it will have
been a major victory. I'm not counting on it. The wars are heating
up in Israel and in Ukraine, and where this craziness is going to end
The only thing is it's winter now, so basically they'll fire missiles at each
other and artillery and they'll resupply. Even though eventually, you know that we
didn't even talk about the fact that the House said we're not going to fund
Israel or Ukraine if you don't do something about the border, and they had
a deal like a few weeks ago, and that deal collapsed, and now
they're just waiting around. I don't know who's going to blink here, you
know, Yeah, this is there's really gridlock on a lot of these things.
And that's a good thing for the Ukraine war because I think, like
you said, it's winter, it's harder to do stuff there now, and
the US is no longer willing to fund Ukraine in an open and it's coming
out that Russia has always been offering peace deals all the way through this.
They've been willing to settle. So now there's no way in the US now
that it's public knowledge that Putin was like, yeah, you know, we'll
settle one today's terms, or you know, yeah, they've been saying that
over and over again. There's no way for the US to hide that fact,
even in the mainstream media and so there's no excuse for not getting on
board some kind of negotiation and cutting a deal, because the deal is the
simplest one in the world. Just Ukraine does not join NATO and doesn't bomb
the Russian parts of Ukraine, and that's it. That was the whole deal.
That was all they have to do, you know. So you know
that that can be that beans literally lunch, you could, you could figure
that out the time it takes to have a couple of glasses of wine and
an entree and dessert and get it over with, you know, And so
I think will do that. Preston. Okay, So, if you've been
following what China's doing to the Philippines, they're like, basically, China has
declared the entire South China Sea is their own, and they are firing water
cannons at the Philippine fishing fleets and basically provoking the Philippines, which has led
to a wholesale rejection of China by most countries in the world and a reaffirmation
of the alliance between the Philippines and the United States and in Japan. And
it's I don't know what's going on here in China, but it's like,
I think the same people are running China as are running the United States,
John, They have like no conceptualization. You know, the Belton Road initiative
that's in tatters. They call that the bribe and rape. Uh you got
the bribe and rape you know, trail or whatever initiative that's that's in shatter.
It's that everybody is defaulting on that. And man, like I always
thought the collapse was going to be in the West, I'd never thought it
was going to happen all over at once. I mean, no place is
safe from these sociopaths here, John. You know, China is kind of
a special case. And there's a guy named Peter Zion that you talking about
on your show before. But his take on China is that they're demographically collapsing,
that they basically have one more generation of military age men, and after
that massive shortage, you know, they won't be able to project power twenty
years from now, and this is therefore their last chance to solidify their influence
over there. So they're feeling rushed to take over the South China Sea and
put their their naval bases there and everything because they know they can't twenty years,
ten years, from now even they won't be able to do it,
and so it's making them reckless. And the last thing you want is a
declining power with nuclear weapons who is desperately reckless, right, So it makes
China dangerous when they wouldn't normally be. What's really interesting is Henry Kissinger said
thirty forty forty years ago, two or three times China had the opportunity to
become the pre eminent hour in the world, and they blew it every time,
and he said they were going to blow it this time as well.
And when you look at the stories about the weaponry, like they've become a
major arms exporter, except all their stuff is basically garbage, and their missile
system, their whole thing that they were so proud of, as it turned
out, was hacked by the US and taking control of and they had a
nuclear sub blow up that might have been a result of the fact they were
hacked. Nobody knows exactly what's going on in that place. But the last
thing they need now is a cult of personality like g you know, like
they needed now last time, and something has to get there too. So
these are the hot these are the black swans for twenty twenty four is who's
going to collapse first? And you know, Russia, China, US,
Germany. It's just an unbelievable mess out there. Yeah. Yeah, well,
you know, by the by the end of twenty twenty four, your
show and my show and when we're together is going to be all, oh
my god, did you see that? Oh you know, it's going to
be one of those just exclamation didna, Yeah they did? Well, gen
do you ever expect that to happen? Yeah? So, so we should
enjoy the good old days while we can't. You know, we're physically saved
and the kids are physically saved, and nobody's going bankrupt all around us right
now. So these are the good times. Enjoy them. Hey, this
is why, always, always, always, don't worry about investing in stocks.
If you have a portfolio, that's great. Always invest in yourself,
human capital, in improving yourself and just do something new, whatever it is
that's going to make you happier as a person and more fulfilled. And then
the sociopaths can't get to you because you've beaten them at their game. They
can only get you by manipulating the news and everything else and making you believe
things that are true and making you disbelieve things that are true. But once
you get past that and you find your own truth, there's nothing they can
do to touch you. Hey, that's it. Everybody out there, Happy
twenty twenty four, Be glad twenty twenty three is gone. Just hope that
we don't look back and look at twenty twenty three as the good old days
like our parents always used to talk about the olden days. And Hey,
John Substackrabino dot substack dot com link in the show notes our site. Sign
up for your free newsletter, you know, get ready for the Inflation Cafe.
It's opening shortly and we will be sending out a little swag. I'm
working on a whip Inflation Now bumper, sticker and pin and we'll be passing
that out to all everybody who joins the cafe. John, Happy twenty twenty
four. We'll talk to you there. Thanks, okay, see ya,
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