What is Cracklac and fellow thermonupier a efforts. I am Dan Valley coming at
you with a Saturday Night slash Sunday podcast. We get so many mailbag questions
that I figured I would split it up into two themes just because we had
some in season tournament questions I figured I could get to and then I'm gonna
run through my exercise of breakout players. I had already started doing this.
I did something with it for br but we've got twenty five breakout players that
I have tiered, and so we will go through the exercise before we get
started. Just the user reminder, please remember to subscribe wherever you get your
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support the show by buying our merch But the big thing is to subscribe,
like our videos, engage, tell people about us. That is the most
important thing. Ratings and reviews on Spotify and Apple as well. Let's kick
things off here by let's do the in season tournament stuff first. We had
two questions on it, and Austin asks, is there a chance the in
season Tournament is a one and done? Will they add to the list of
ridiculous awards nobody cares about, such as Hustle, Hustle or clutch Players.
I actually thought people did care about the Clutch Player award last year, Austin.
But so this is just my little rant on the in season Tournament.
I love it. I love the idea. I love what they're trying to
do. I think most of the courts are fire. Some of the ones
that are. It's the red ones for the most part. So with the
Bulls, and we'll see it with some other teams. The Rockets one might
end up being okay, they're kind of unsightly, But like the Indie court,
the Brooklyn Court, the thunder Court, like those things are fun and
they differentiate from the other regular season games. And you tune in, you
know that you're watching an nd season tournament game at that point. And I
appreciate the NBA's attempt to ascribe more meaning to a regular season that is quite
frankly too long, and especially now when you're going up against not just the
NFL but also college football that people are so interested in. Those are two
behemoths this time of year, So why not take the swing? And I've
seen and this is not to call out Austin specifically, who was at the
Pacers game. I saw that he tagged me and something on Twitter, and
again, the Pacers court just looks absolute fire. It will take some time
for this to maybe get off the ground. And that's why I saw some
people kind of saying, well, if you need to change the court so
that people know what they're watching and have the trophy, the NBA Cup on
full display, that it's an issue, Know it's not, because this thing
is just starting out. So you need people to understand what they're watching and
to sort of get the not just the word out there, but you need
to get people accustomed to Okay, this is happening. It's on Tuesdays and
Fridays, and it's happening in November through the beginning of December. And yes,
it may take a couple of seasons years for it to get off the
ground to where you've had pass winners, and you have teams defending their NBA
Cup at that point, we've had a couple of repeat champions. You know,
over the first four years, maybe one team wins it twice. That's
fine, Like it's gonna like at some point, I think that teams and
players will be more invested in it. I don't know how you can raise
the stakes. I think I saw was it Tyre's Alibert and said, the
player the team who wins should be given an automatic bid into the playoffs.
That would be interesting. But then it's sort of like, well, then
what have you done? Did you detract from or diminish the meaning of the
rest of that team season from December onward? If they just if they just
get a playoff bid, you can maybe guarantee him a playing spot at that
point, and so they're still incentivized to, hey, well, we don't
want to be in the play in something like that. I saw a lot
of people, I think even Eye floated. Could you, you know,
increase the lottery odds or give them lottery odds even if they're not a lottery
team. But players are just not going to care about paving the way for
someone to come and take their job. Basically is what you're doing by giving
them a lottery odds. I think the cash prizes based off with Tobias Harris.
He was saying about how you know this is, you know, doubling
a two way player salary if they're on the team that wins. So I
half a million dollars is not nothing. The coaches are incentivized now, they're
getting bonuses. So I think the NBA has done a really good job of
trying to make this. It's all over the place, the branding is all
over the place. Maybe people are sick and tired of hearing about it,
but I like the idea that we can come into a season. Maybe feel
like it's a little bit too early, as we're only two weeks into the
regular season, but we're in November and that NBA games matter, and the
setup, to me, I think is important. These are regular season games,
so they count towards the standings, and so they are meaningful outside of
the NBA Cup, where if you just made this the NBA Cup, there'd
probably be teams that just wouldn't care because why do they care about winning the
NBA Cup? And even now, I don't know how much additional meeting.
It gives to a team like the Clippers, a team like the Suns who
are so concerned about winning a title. But we saw with these games on
the game night one excuse me of the NBA in season tournament like teams were
given a shit for the games that you could pay attention to. I mean,
you had Michael Porter Junior was defending his butt off against Lukadancic. The
Mavericks averaged point I think seven to seven points per possession as a team on
possessions in which Michael Porter Junior spent some time guarding Lukadancic. The Cavs Indie
game that was super frenetic down the stretch. We saw what was going on
with OKC and Golden State. I know Shade in play in that one.
These games were close, and the NBA actually tweeted it out. I should
see if maybe I can get it up the screen. But like the margin,
the margin of victory was so small relative to what it normally might be.
Friday's average margin of victory was four point nine points, the second smallest
on a single night minimum seven games in the last ten seasons. That's again,
it's not proof of concept beyond shadow of a doubt, but like that
that's a real thing. We're talking about a Friday night in early November.
Like that's a real thing. And you're looking at you know, Kyrie Irving
came back for the game against the Nuggets. Would he have said, and
again the national TV element, but like, would that have been something that
they would have rushed back to have him? Probably not on a normal circumstance.
And so why not try it and see where this leads? And if
you look at just some of the comments from the players, not just Tobias
Harris talking about the money, but they seem to care about Okay, let's
try this out, and there's gonna be people that just want to. I
think also once you get into pass the group stages, into this single elimination
stuff, that's just by virtue of being a competitor and knowing that you have
an opportunity to do something this year, specifically that no one's ever done before,
win the inaugural NBA Cup. But just this idea that oh, could
you be in Vegas and you're sending someone home before they finally get to that
title game, and look, there's no there's no opportunity cost here. Yes,
the two finalists wind up having to have eighty three out of eighty three
regular season games, where everyone else will only have eighty two. And we're
in an era of load management being concerned about players' bodies. It's just an
extra game at this point. And so it's fine you folded most of it
into the regular season. You've kept your optionality open by forcing teams to leave
their arenas open un certain days. And also, I also you'll see the
intensity pick up probably after the first I would say two group games, to
where there might just be younger teams, uh that sense, oh, hey,
we have a chance to actually win the NBA Cup or come out of
the group stays to enter the single elimination round. Let's let's really go after
it at this point. And so do you see the intensity sort of ratchet
up from there? And I don't know the team that you want to name
that as the standout in that it's you know, the let's use the Blazers
as an example, beating the Grizzlies, who are just off to a terrible,
terrible start. Are they just a team that's just oh, if we
win our next you know, group game, and all of a sudden,
we were two were guaranteed to be five hundred in that record, and it
goes to point differential after that, it's going to be the best record from
each group for anyone who doesn't know comes out to enter that final stage.
And then there'll be a wildcard from each conference. There will be ties,
though, and then it's determined by point differential that it's just really interesting to
where it's Oh it matters. Okay, the Heat did beat the Wizards,
but the Wizards made it closer. And so if there are gonna be other
teams in their group that just destroy the Wizards, we know the Heat are
definitely not gonna care about this. Why not attempt this? And no,
I don't think it's going to be one and done ultimately, because you need
this to marinate for a few years, I think to experience the full benefits
of it. There's value in the longevity of if we're five NBA cups deep
and that then it starts to mean something. And just approach this with an
open mind. If you haven't already the people who are kind of already poo
pooing it before we even have gotten through the first one. I just I
find that incredibly bizarre. To wrap up here, everything Black said, ask
another in season tournament question for you, wouldn't doing away with divisions give the
in season group stage a little bit more oomph? First of all, love
the word oomf, so shout out everything blacks. I don't think so,
unless I'm if I'm mistaking your question here, you'll have to let me know
in discord, which is where these questions comes in, which is why you
should all join our discord. I don't think it would, just because the
way that they determine the group stages the groups, excuse me, which is
based off performance from the previous season. They're going to be constantly changing,
and so if you wanted to use the same groups, but at that point
then it's just, oh, we're in divisions. It might add a little
bit of juice, but this would really fuck with the NBA's focus on travel,
Like, could you do interconference groups to where you're not determining it by
performance? But could we just loop these It's every year, these same five
teams are in a group, and we're mixing and matching the conferences, and
can you you know, birth some new rivalries from that? But I don't
think the NBA would want to get into the would want to get into the
travel issue from that where you have West Coast teams playing all the way across
the East coast. So I don't think getting away with divisions would really do
anything with that. I guess if you were going to lock these groups in,
which you could just do by conference, that's fine, But then it's
almost why don't we do this by division at this point? But I actually
kind of like the way that they're doing it, where it's it's really based
on performances from from the year before. So I think that that has a
better chance of creating a more even distribution in groups on a year to year
basis rather than locking them them in. But you could, you couldn't attempt
to. Let's deviate from divisions and we'll just we'll lock these groups in now
and see what happens. Does that create, you know, birth some new
rivalries? It could. I'm all for the NBA Cup until it proves that
it's not going to be sustainable or interesting, and it is yet to show
that for sure. Let's get into this little exercise of mine where I'm going
to I came up with tiers of the types of breakouts, and I've limited
myself to three options per tier of breakout players. A lot of this is
predictive, but most of it some of it's predictive, I should say,
most of it's based off what I've already seen, read about, watched film
on, done some research on. So I limited myself to three players per
tier except for the deep cuts one because we had a question and this was
maybe i'll throw this in the actual full mail bag, but it was from
HP Burgie wants to wanted to know about deep cut breakouts, both teams and
players, and so I'll probably do a different version of it on that mail
bag, but that's one of the tiers here, and I'll throw it up
on the screen in a minute. So I think I allowed myself to go
five deep on that, and then I have other tiers that I created and
their self explanatory with the titles. But we have the deep cut leaps and
so I'll have five players in there. I think, then the second year
leaps, third year leaps, oh you thought their contract was bad leaps,
continuation of leaps from last year, stardom bound leaps. So players that are
kind of tracking towards their first All Star appearance, and then superstars that I
think could be making leaps or will make leaps if they haven't played enough yet.
There's a little bit of a spoiler alert in there. I think it's
beat. We'll start from the bottom and go go our way up here,
and I'll try and blow through this so that it's not just like a super
duper long exercise. I don't know if this will resonate a lot for the
listeners on the audio version, so maybe you should go check it out on
YouTube. But the exercise I thought was instructive. So with deep cut leads
here Matt Ryan in New Orleans just like shooting the ball really well, he's
probably defended better than I've expected. And that unit with him Jordan Hawkins,
by the way, no rookies were allowed in this, so if you wanted
to see a wemby one a Jordan Hawkins won, Derek Lively, Chet Holmgren,
sorry, they're not going to be here. That unit with CJ and
a bunch of bench players specifically and you, well, not a bunch of
bench players. We have HERB and that it's basically three floor spacers has been
Matt Ryan and it's been Jordan Hawkins and then Jonas found Tunis has played a
lot with them. That lineup has worked really well. Marjon Bochamp has started
playing more in Milwaukee. He's hitting his threes, covering some really tough defensive
assignments. Point of attack defense has still been an issue for them though,
But that's just a player. The fact that they didn't have to give him
up in the Damian Lillar trade might end up being a big deal when you
look at how shallow they are. Also, Peyton Watson in Denver not like
super efficient all the time, but I compared him watching him like watching a
human explanation point, that's what watching him sort of feels like here. And
he's taken on some really tough defensive matchups. He is the highest plus minus
on the Denver Nuggets. When Nicole Jokic is off the floor. The Nuggets
have outscored opponents with Peyton Watson on the court by plus fifty nine. I
think he actually has a negative or close to it when he's playing with Jokic
or something weird like that. But I've just appreciated the intensity that he's brought.
Derek Jones, Junior He was shouted out in discord for this question specifically,
I think by H. P. Burgee. Yeah, he's been great
for Dallas. I know a lot of people don't want to see him play
as much, but right now he's he's every one point two to one points
per spot up possession. He's taking on some tough defensive assignments for them.
The fact that he is serviceable on offense though, really that's great for them
because they need two way players. There's like a shortage of two way players
from them right now. Olivier Saw in Oklahoma City once Jalen Williams and Kendrick
Big Jalen Williams, Jay will and Kendrick Williams are both healthy. Are you
gonna be able to five minutes for Olivia Sar? Just a big body who's
swatting everything, can do things around the basket, grab rebounds. Opponents are
shooting like a ridiculously low percentage against him at the rim right now. Just
some nice spot minutes. He's been fun to watch. Hayward high Smith in
Miami, they just really need I clearly went beyond Maybe I went six players
deep in this one. I might have won seven one of them. I
wasn't sure if they count as a deep cut, so whatever, but Heywood
high Smith, he shot the ball pretty well. Has not played a ton
for Miami, but they need guys who are hitting threes right now. Probably
needs to be willing to take them a little bit more frequently. That someone
also keep an eye on for the rest of the season. And then the
big one here. I wasn't sure if this qualified as a deep cut.
But Grant and I go back and forth all the time on this as to
whether because we're so and our discord members, we're all in this NBA silo
names that I'll say now, people that are watching on YouTube might just stumble
into this podcast. They're not seeing it, some of them. So Jalen
Johnson is absolutely in here. He has killed it. He's shooting like seventy
two percent from two point range, been running the floor really well, bites
on fate, fakes a little bit too often. Defensively, need to be
more careful with some of his passes, but he could be a really dangerous
facilitator from a standstill. He's been good on closeouts defensively. He's covering some
really big dudes defensively as well. And I think that you really would like
to see the perimeter game come along a little bit more. He has some
of a floor game, but like an actual stand still jumper, not something
we know right now. Been pretty good as a help rim protector opponents are
shooting. I think I saw it was nine of eighteen at the rim against
him. Would love to see again. The big thing for me if those
trailer jump shots can kind of fall for him. But he's been absolute massive,
uh for for for Atlanta, and that's gonna that's gonna wrap up the
first tier here. Let's move on to second year leap self explanatory. This
is where again I limited to three players, so these are not the only
players whould be candidates, but by trying to limit it to three players per
these tiers, uh, Shaydon Sharp just absolute been ridiculous. He has been
the Blazers' best player, which is when you have you know, R DUB
three R DUB, when you have DeAndre and I guess Goot Henderson he's banged
up at at the moment you have Jeremy Grant and Frey Simon's only a period
in a game like that's actually saying something he's been really he's been making shots
from the perimeter. He's hitting pull up threes at a very high clip,
shooting very well from above the break, and it's really all just the beginning
for him. I think we still need to see his passing is better.
It's still pretty basic, but he's thrown a couple of nifty dimes in the
pocket and as post entries. If he ever starts deferring more consistently on his
drives, it's gonna be hours on this dude. I've been really impressed with
what I saw from him. Another second year player that's really impressed me.
Mark Williams is just this massive dude, but he has like dexterity and speed
really good IQ. I think there's more to plumb for him as a passer.
I'd like to see him test out that jumper that we saw towards the
end of last season. Not threes necessarily, but more of the true mid
range looks rather than the ones from kind of the short floater range. But
he is he's wrecking lives around the rim right now, and he can swallow
past his hole like this is someone who's gonna break up a bunch of stuff
on the ball away from the ball, not as just a shot blocker and
a turrent, but it's just really getting in there with his hands. He's
been doing a better job this year of avoiding cooul trouble on defense, and
he can make some really tough catches on the move as well, and can
give you some nice touch around the hoop. I think the Hornet's got a
good one here. You might prefer this next guy, though, that is
Jaalen Duran been an absolute monster who the Hornets could have had, by the
way, but they decided not to. I think Mark Williams is good enough
to where you don't have to concern yourself with it too much. But Jalendern
has been an absolute, absolute, absolute, absolute monster. I can't say
absolute enough to get there. He I think the thing that's actually impressed me
the most with him, and there's I mean, you look at what he's
doing. The connection with Kay Cunningham is both it's empirical and etherol at the
same time. He has this gait of Giannis put A ballerina's fleet of foot.
But I'm still most impressed by his passing. He can actually make reads
on the move, and I think that having that IQ already is a second
year player is huge and once you get him actual you know, not net
negative floor spacing let's say like you have in Detroit right now, winds up
being huge for the Pisons long term. I also think he's been good just
as a vertical spacer right now, and again that's without actual spacing around him.
Imagine what he'll do when that changes. And just the stat lines are
Gaga right now, which is like, oh, fifteen thirteen three assists,
too swats per game, and he's shooting sixty five plus percent on his twos.
That's this is there are two definitive building blocks in Detroit. I'd be
prepared to throw Warsar Thompson in there, but it's Kag Cunningham and Jalen Duran
right now has entered that territory. Moving on to third year leaps, and
we'll start with this one with Scotty Barnes because I think there's the startup bound
leap, which I think he might have a case for this year, but
I need to see higher offensive returns from Toronto before him ready to slot him
there. But they have supercharged his usage and while it is not culminated in
a pretty offense, they're learning a lot about Scotty Barnes and his armory.
It's it's real, like, this is someone who's around twenty and five shooting
I think fifty five percent on his twos. He shot well on a standstill
threes last year, which is a huge development for them. He knows now
when you kind of look, he's using his body better to create separation,
whether he has his back to the basket or he's going downhill. I still
think he needs to do a better job of kind of embracing contact and maybe
junking some of those fadeaways. Getting trying to get to the rim a little
bit more would be good for him. But just like he's hitting enough of
his runners and his turnarounds right now to where it just really doesn't matter.
The turnovers can get ugly here and they're inordinate in number. Sometimes that's part
of the offensive hub learning curve. And I still think, Look, he's
made better decisions, I think or he's getting better at surveying the floor and
passing out of double teams give him actual spacing, And I think that this
is someone who you can now build around. It's not just oh, he
can be part of this rebuild, or is he like to the second guy,
the third guy. Maybe his best role will be second best player on
our title team. But this is someone who can direct your rebuild. Is
worth at least directing your rebuild around. Albert jay Gun is here as part
of the third year leaps. The Rockets are finally giving him more volume.
Right now, his touches per thirty six minutes are way up. I think
he went from he was about forty eight touches per per thirty six minutes to
the front court last year. That's shot up to over fifty three. While
his overall usage is only up a tick. That really just says more about
his commitment to a passer. But he still managed to ratchet up his scoring
and he's doing well on the glass. Have I've noticed, We've all noticed
that this better role for Shang Gun. It's not resulted in winning at a
higher clip for Houston, but he keeps the ball moving. He is just
more aggressive as a finisher. Right now, he's hitting his threes. There
are outlines of a system that you can build around him. As Jalen Green
is struggling, as Fred Van Fleet's kind of been up and down, as
you're dealing with life Sons to Tarry Easton, who's been banged up. Joe
Barsmith Junior has not looked too great on the offensive end this season. If
you can get to a point where the rockets are moving faster, more frequently,
more consistently, more decisively once around shanng Gun once he catches the ball,
I think that is your best basis for an offensive system right now,
and you can see the skeleton of it at points. It's just not consistent
enough To wrap up this tier, I have to go with Cam Thomas.
I mean, how do we go with anyone but Cam Thomas. He's averaging
over a point per drive, one of five players doing so right now.
Who's a minimum of fifteen drives for anyone else? Who's interested in the other
four in that department? Jason Tatum, Chet Holmgren, He's been absolutely great,
said Jayson Tatum, and beating Kelly ubre so two guys that come from
the Sixers. But Cam Thomas, we've so often referred to him as a
microwave scorer. I think people still default to that. It's basically an insult
at this point. Do I think he'll flirt with averaging thirty points per game
for the entire season, absolutely not. Does he need to do more as
a passer, absolutely yes. But there's a rhyme and reason to the way
that he is playing, an actual process that transcends these chucker labels. He's
showcasing poise patients in the lane, beating defenses in ways that he just wasn't
beforehand. He's he's exploring, you know, I think when you look at
a lot of his shot making now, it's uncomfortably mid range heavy, but
he's also exploring different levels of that middle He's varying the depth to which he's
traveling, the speeds at which he's traveling off the catch and out of ball
screens. That's that's that's going to I think that sustains, and we're kind
of seeing defenses respond in kind here where they're overy reacting. We've seen him
throw a couple of parades to the free throw line so far this season,
and I think he's been more opportunistic at the rim. He could still stand
to get there more often. The fact that he's doing all this without nailing
threes an especially high clip. And also the bigger thing is when you watch
him and Lucas Kaplan from Nets Daily and pointed this out. He's playing very
much within the flow of the larger offense right now. That's a weapon that
translates to a better version of the Brooklyn Nets team. This tier was kind
of hard. I don't know if like it's we get to a point where
you sign guys to extensions and then it's just, oh, they're all of
a sudden not as valuable. It's the Tyler hero effect. We saw it
with well, oh shit, I'm spoiling stuff here. Tyler Hero is in
this tier for me. He has been scorching hot to start the season.
It has not helped Miami's offense. He's definitely overstretched as a playmaker, but
he's still I think he's improved incrementally each year as that passing type. Only
Donovan Mitchell, Steph Curry, and Luka Nancis have hit more off the dribble
three pointers than him. Right now, he's hitting those threes at a thirty
eight point two percent clips. That's absolute fire. He's going to give up
so much defensively for you, but he is an offensive lifeline right now.
When you look at how poorly Jimmy Butler's been playing, how all over the
place, the heat have been where they're almost two line in the half court
with certain units. He's giving you a breath of fresh air where he'll operate
a little bit more quickly. He can still do some of the stuff off
the ball. Him and Duncan, Robinson and even Bamitt points like they've fueled
some of the higher moments for Miami's offense. And so you look at his
contract and it's four years guaranteed one hundred and twenty million. I think that's
ultimately fine. You don't want him to be your point guard. That's never
been what he's supposed to be. That primary playmaker though. That's why you're
supposed to have Butler being able to get downhill, which he just hasn't been
able to do this this season. RJ. Barrett four years, its first
year of a four year, one hundred and seven million dollar extension, missed
some time now. He's he's banged up with a right knee soreness. I
believe it is. That is concerning. But you watch him hitting his threes,
that's a big deal. Still not the most efficient player, but he's
getting better at getting defenders on his hip, not picking up his dribble making
reads from there. The defensive effort has been better from him this season as
well. He's thrown some just passes where you look at them and look back
and say, oh, okay, he gets it. And I still we
can't put him in the entry to start him to here, at least I
can't. Just now. Maybe Nick sense would be more inclined to throw him
there, and so you're not going to change the entire build of your team
to fit him. But I still just wonder if he was around better spacing
or players who were more willing to throw up threes in volume, or and
look, they get to lineups, they pull RJ. They stager him with
some of the bench units, but those aren't super spacey like I would like
to see RJ plus four shooters, which is just something that Knicks will never
truly get to give him. The makeup of the roster, and how Tibbs
likes to run the types of fives he likes to run, or how he
uses his fives when you're looking at Isaiah Hardenstein, who ken space the floor,
That's not what they're gonna use him for specifically, But he's thrown enough
of those passes this season. RJ has to where I think he gets it,
and I would like to see that more and so I wouldn't rule him
out of the entry into stardom. The final one for this tier is Michael
Porter Junior. He has like four years one hundred and forty plus left on
his deal. He signed about a five year, one hundred and eighty million
dollars contract. I don't know who is necessarily calling his deal bad after the
Nuggets won, that'sh but I really just want to underscore how much, how
much straw, how many, how big of a leap he's actually taken as
a defender as a rebounder, being consistently aggressive disciplined in both areas. I
already mentioned at the top of this podcast, if you listened to the to
the bit about the n season tournament, he was defending Lugadancic for good stretches
and like he gave him hell and we've seen it, saw it dating back
to the playoffs, like he gave Kevin Durant fits, and he's defended some
even smaller players for certain stretches. I think his when you look at his
help side rim protection, it's gotten a lot better. The raw numbers when
the people are going and challenging up against the rim, but just like when
he's coming over, reading when and how to provide help, So forget even
just about the basket specifically, that's a really big deal. And he can
just have these nights where he'll be thermonuclear af on offense, and yeah,
you want to see those making they come basically entirely within the flow. Now,
we mentioned that with Cam Thomas, like MPJ has been there for a
little while, he's not hijacking possessions to find his own. Looks like he
can give you what. He scores twenty four points on ten of eighteen in
that first end season tournament game, four of eight from three, still one
of the best shooters alive, and he can go through his cold spurts.
To me, what's most impressive is that when he's gone through some of those
those valleys this season, it just is not buying large impact in his defensive
effort. And so do I think he's some top tier defender. I don't
really know, but he's that's I feel like that's overstating where he's at right
now, But like, this is someone who's a league average defender or better
at the moment, and now the Nuggets are just big. Like now they're
big and have how many plus defenders on the court, whereas Jamal Murray for
his position is he kind of there. You have Aaron Gordon, you have
MPJ. Yo Kitch is fine for the most part. It's only in certain
Yo actions that you can throw him in. And then the Timberwolves, of
course, they see to know how to defend him better than most where it's
let's put Karl Anthon Towns on him and will have Rigobert on the back line.
The Nuggets are just so big and you want to throw Peyton Watson.
They get some really just big lineups for everyone, even to Cooleyocic on defense
like disrupts plays with his hands in addition to getting is his rebounds. So
MPJ huge development for the Nuggets. That'll be the catchphrase. It's just huge
development when you're talking about these leaps. Next year is a continuation of leaps
from last year to where it was, Oh, did these things happen mid
season or were they disrupted by injury? And they're still going to me j
dub in Oka se fouled out in the d season Tory game that Shaye wasn't
there don't pay attention to his efficiency as much, and there have been some
turnover issues, but and he could still become like dead set on getting to
the rim too much. I'd like to see him just sort of spruce up
his outside volume the thunder having him just run entire units at the moment,
it's like they're pulling Gideon Shay so that we're gonna see Jade be the one
to run some of those bench heavier units and they haven't always looked pretty,
but it's worked a lot of the time. And his ability to get to
the basket, the disruption that he's able to provide on defense, and this
is just like aside from lou Dort, like that is the guy. I
know what chet Holmern can do as his own sort of disruptor down low and
the shot blocking he Giveshoesatch just inside but on the perimeter. But it's like
after Loudort, and I would even say there's a chance that Jay Dubb because
of the way he can defend up, I would argue better than Loudhort.
This is just the guy on defense for them and if he's not there yet,
like he's just going to be the guy at some point, and so
I really think that while some of the efficiency numbers we've seen a little bit
of a pullback there, it's the information you're getting on him in the context
that he's being used like that's more important, and that he still gets to
the rimaton. It's probably a little bit less, but he's experimenting more from
the mid range and noticeably more of his attempts for going unassisted this year.
Increasing that burden could in theory complicate his development. You're getting more information,
but is he worse off? He has not been worse off, And I
just I don't really know where to set his ceiling as a player. We
know where it might Grant for people who are familiar around these parts, we
know where Grant lands on this. But as he gets more comfortable facilitating out
of those downhill assaults, maybe pulling up a little bit more often, a
little bit more efficiently, the thunder just gonna become even more immediate. The
Fenser're able to hang with the warriors even though they don't have shake gilg Alexander.
That's a testament to what Jaye Williams can do in a game where he's
not like even at his best Devin Massell is coming up here next again someone
else where. You've seen the efficiency decline a little bit. He's not tasked
with facilitating as much either, because they've gone to point Jeremy Jeremy Soewen,
and that's that's fine. He's experimenting with some really tough jump shots and some
of them are going in. We've I've seen him hit just a few of
these bonkers level threes. His pull up, like his pull up two,
is falling as ever. And I wouldn't say he's putting more conventional pressure on
the basket, but like he is, he's not picking up his dribble as
really or shying away from contact as much, and so that's like an additional
form of rim pressure for him. It's finer print evolution that has fueled some
really tough finishes around the basket and more importantly, additional trips to the charity
stripers. So this is someone who is leveling up his offense, leveling up
expanding his scoring portfolio. It's okay that he's not running as many or he's
not running pick and rolls and droves or facilitating a ton out of the half
court. That's why you have Trey Jones. That's why you have Jeremy Soehen
at this point, and you have other guards that are gonna have the ball
in their hands through those stages. I think Devin Vessel again, it's been,
as I said, more of a finer print evolution, but it's building
off of last year to where had he played more games, he would have
been at the four of the most improved Player discussion with Lowry market In and
shake Gilgers Alexander. I don't know if he has a chance to get there
this season. I don't know why I wouldn't say that. Finally, to
wrap up this tier, I think you knew it was coming. This could
be it could be a deep cut leap, but nas reed, he has
been. He's outplayed Karl Anthony Towns, and he's been the best offensive big
for the Minnesota Timberwolves. The floor game still there. It's not an ultra
prominent part of what the Wolves do, but it's more than breaking case of
emergency shooting over sixty five percent on his drives. Day Moore from the Day
More NBA podcast with Kyle Taiger, you should follow those guys. That podcast
is fantastic, had this stat that Reid is yet to not score on a
post up in some form where it's even if he missed the shot ends up
going to the foul line. I've been really impressed with his defensive progression as
well. The Wolves have one of the three best defenses in the leagues by
point by points allowed per possession right now. He's been a big part of
it. He's super switchable. His room protection started improving last year. That
improvement has held, and he's also been able to cover up for minutes in
which he has played with Karl Anthony Towns, which is just absolutely let's call
it a huge development for the Timberwolves. He's hitting hiss above the break three
Still I don't know what his This is someone who I think is playing enough
minutes right now to win six Man of the Year and most improved Player at
the same time. And it's if they ever come they might need to have
some awkward discussions if Towns doesn't start playing better soon. I'm not saying you
bench Towns, it's more of, well, do we moved Towns before salary
skyrockets to almost fifty million when he's at like thirty six and change. That's
a real discussion. That nos Reed is kind of forcing because he's so thoroughly
out playing towns right now, too early to have it. I'm just saying
put on alert because nos Reed has been Rudy Gobert has been really good too,
defensively especially, but nos Reed has been Has he been Minnesota's best two
way player? Jan McDaniels hasn't played enough yet. I think he can make
the case that maybe Impi Edwards is still right there, but there's a chance
nas Reed has been Minnesota's best two way player to start the season. That's
that's wild. We're into the stardom bound leap. So the guys that will
either make their first time All Star for a first time All Star appearance,
I'm not saying that's all they could do. Some of these guys can make
All NBA. I'm gonna start with Desmond Baine because the Grizzly suck, but
it's it's through no fault of Desmond Main. He's overtaxed right now, but
the fact that his efficiency isn't lower, that his true shooting percentage is still
above league average. Yes, I know the Grizzlies. Their offense is in
like the twelve percent tile when he's playing as sort of there. You know,
they have the league's worst offense overall, I believe, and they're in
the twelve percent tile when he's on the court. They're asking him to do
so much, to put more pressure via drives, to run pick and rolls.
It's not that they just don't It's not only they don't have John Ran,
they don't have Steven Adams. So you're you're losing your best screen setter.
You don't also have Brandon Clark, and so you're playing with Xavier Tillman
and David roddy'sire Williams has played a ton of minutes. The burden on Bain
is exponential right now. It's incomprehensible relative to where he was just a couple
of years ago, just sort of this lower usage, lower minute rookie.
And now fast forward into year four. He's on this two hundred million dollar
extension that doesn't kick in until next year, and he's worth it. He's
given you around twenty five points per and forces per game. And the fact
that his shooting supposed have not taken a nos dive. That's that's big.
I mean, he's yeah, he's shooting below thirty five percent from three or
right around there, but it's coming on bonkers volume and on greater degrees of
difficulty. More of his made buckets are going unassisted. And just look at
how defense is key in on him now. The coverages are way more aggressive,
not just when he's looking to attack, but it's sort of just the
first line initiator that these defenses are really going after him. He's still shooting
really well from two point range, by the way, he was at last
I checked like fifty nine percent. I didn't check after that Blazers game,
though, that's ridiculous. That's just absolutely ridiculous. His playmaking still isn't floor
general material. I think he's done a better job. You're looking at the
awareness, his spatial awareness, finding trailers in transition, getting better at the
live dribble kicks to the corner specifically, I don't know. You know,
he's not the level of star to where with memphis current resources, he's going
to salvage their season. But this is absolutely a star turn. It is
just absolutely a star turn, and he belongs in the early season All Star
discussion. Speaking of the early season All Star discussion, Tyres Maxie I would
like to think that the seventy six ers decided to expedite James Harden trade talks
because he's been so good, not because the owners got involved, but because
that Tyre's Maxie's just been cooking, averaging over thirty points per game, shooting
the lights out from three, not getting to the basket as much, and
he's been hardly lights out when you're looking at his off the dribble shooting he's
making. The biggest development is he's making headway as a playmaker here, a
deliberate playmaker. His comfort changing directions on ball all time high did over his
chemistry with Joel Embiid. He's learning to downshift coming around screens as well to
where it's almost everything needed to be super fast, the dials always going to
eleven. It doesn't need to be like that. Now he's not, you
know, he's not manipulating the game at a Luka Doncic level speed. But
the fact that he can downshift, which is something that Jenleen Green and Houston
has never really learned to do, that's huge. He's he's also leaving his
feet as sort of a decoy. I know, not all jump passes have
purpose, but he's leaving his feet and even using his eyes looking in different
directions to try and trick defenses that he can throw the right pass. Philly's
offense when he's playing without Joel Embiid right now is bad. It was right
around the league average, and then you have like a one game and it
gives you like this massive downturn. He's done enough though, to where you
look at it and say, Okay, this could be the point guard of
the future. Want someone else who can make shots off the dribble, a
perimeter player. I know a lot of people say a guard like Zach Lvine.
If that's relative to availability, I get it, but it really should
come more in the form of a wing. But this is someone who of
like hesn't he he has an All NBA ceiling. I think we're there,
maybe not this season, You're still I think you still need to see some
more more expansion, a little bit more of the off the dribble efficiency.
Can he get to the foul line even more? Can his playmaking continue to
improve? If if we're fast, how warning ahead to next year would not
shock me? If he's in the All NBA discussion. To wrap up the
Star Bound here, I'm going with Key Cunningham, and I think there will
be maybe even listeners of this podcast. They will focus on the efficiency.
He's still below average when you're looking at the true shooting percentage. He's been
quite frankly awful at the rim, even by his standards. He's committing turnovers
in spades, so many of which going back and watching, there's there's indecision
there or just outright bad decisions that come after picking up his dribble. I
really just don't care the signs that we're seeing, and it's just I mean,
he's averaging. He's pumping in the points, shooting over forty percent from
three, which looks sustainable. He's not hitting his pull up threes, which
is where he's always been comfortable, taking kind of those step backs for those
pull ups. He's shooting the lights out on catch and shoot threes right now,
and he's taken him quickly enough. It just looks like he's at home
doing it. I'm buying. I'm buying his three point stroke off the catch.
I don't know if he'll see galaxy. He's above forty percent the entire
season, but if he told me he shot thirty nine to forty percent from
three for the year. Yeah, he's he's just he's not tempted. He's
he's not he's he's unseduced by the temptation to dribble out of wide open threes
now, and that was just not something we could say beforehand. That's a
what's the catchphrase for this podcast? Huge development at the moment. And I
also think when you look at what he's doing as a passer, there is
a there's a shake Gilgess Alexander sa manipulation to his game. He defenses can
sometimes speed him up, coax him into gaffs. For the most part,
he's unflappable so long as he's keeping his dribble, changing cadence in direction,
head on a swivel. His eyes they're like they're seeing into the next pass,
or they're just guiding opponents away from his ultimate intent where he's gonna throw
these no look passes. This is again someone who is operating with suboptimal spacing.
And you should check out the full Mailbag episode which will go live on
Monday, where we get into a little more of the Killian, Hayes,
j and Ivy awkwardness going on in Detroit right now. Cad Cunningham is making
the star turn if he stays healthy. This is basically his sophomore season.
But I've seen enough from him on offense. I think the finishing is eventually
gonna come. He's missed a lot of just like, oh yeah, he
needs to improve his tank takeoff points angles. That's been a thing I've talked
to Las Jackson. I think about that in the past, but I don't
think so much this year. But it was during the twenty twenty two,
twenty twenty three look head, So you go back and look at that podcast
from over a year ago and see how much of it is still Jermaine.
I think he will get better at the rim as the spacing improves. And
also there's just been like actual high quality misses where the shots are he's blowing
these wide open layofs or they're rolling off off the rim. I think his
touch will improve, maybe to where he can shoot like sixty something percent around
the basket, which is high enough, better than in the fifties. And
look the connectivity he has with Jaellen Duran being able to find him, knowing
where to place those passes, creating vertical spacing that way. This is someone
I know a lot of people are out on him is sort of having the
superstar ceiling, and they're gonna put Mobley in Barns in front of him as
who's going to have the better pro career. It's still I would bet on
probably Mobili Still at this point, it's the jury is still very much out.
Key Cunningham is firmly in that discussion, and you'll notice Evan Mobley's not
here. I thought about putting him in, but again I limited myself to
three players a tier. The offensive is happening, even if it doesn't always
unfold beautifully or at a high efficiency. It's happening with Evan Mobley. I
just I don't know that he's ever gonna have the opportunity that Cad and Scottie
Barnes are getting right now with the current iteration of the Cavs, where you
have Dono Mitchell and Darius Garland and also making plays from the middle of the
floor on offense in the half court. It's gonna be a lot tougher when
Jared Allen is back, but I think it boes well for when Okay,
Jared Allen is back, you're running your full squad now these Evan Mobley is
the lone, big units that are going up against benches. Those things might
cook and just absolutely destroy opponents. Our final tier superstars making leaps, and
so this is more predictive for the most part. Well, it's not predictive,
but it's just, Oh, who are these high level top tennis Top
fifteen players already who have added to their game. I'm gonna start with Luca.
He's not doing anything too differently aside from Oh, he's trying on defense
and complaining less, folks, Luka Dacic complaining less. That counts as every
and then he's just been hyper efficient on all his usual bag of tricks.
That counts. Look, that counts as making a leap for me. Jason
Tatum, he leads the league in points per drive right now. He's officially
maybe the most complete scorer in the NBA. I who is you're gonna have
to do? You're gonna have to ask me who's more complete than him?
As someone who's gonna be able to work off the ball as a spot up
shooter, get moving off the ball in transition to run the floor, but
also be able to hit those side step threes, create his own twos,
pull up from mid range, follow all the way through on his drives,
throw some just he wants to work with his back to the basket, or
he's gonna use like a pivot foot and try and get defenders to come off
his feet when he gets closer to the basket. I think I did.
I already mention he's drawing fouls at I don't think it's as high a clip
as he was last season, but it's still reasonable enough clip. This is
in every level score and I think he's probably the most I'm hesitant to say
the most complete offensive player in the league. The passing still needs to come
along to a degree, especially he could still be a little bit predictable on
his drives, but he's more unpredictable overall because he's scoring at every level.
And I don't know who would be the more complete scorer right now, Shay
Oh Luca Luca might be the most complete scorer in the NBA. He's in
that discussion. Shaye would be if his three point volume, which he's taken
more than he was last season, but it needs to come up even further.
Jason Taintam is in that discussion. He's probably been in it for a
while, but he might be the most complete offensive player period, just even
more than Luca because he's able to play off the ball. Like this is
just I hope we appreciate I didn't have him. I think I had him
finishing. He was in the top five of my MVP voting. He's probably
the MVP of the league right now. It's him, or it's Luca,
or it's Steph, or it could be my next player, just based off
how bad they've done. Since he hasn't really played, Devin Booker, I'm
putting him in He's only played two games, and the Suns have issues,
and I'm putting him in the wrong tier first, so I can move him
up there. The passing, just look at it. The way that he's
able to dictate the pace of the Suns too, and they need the rim
pressure that he provides on the ball. Off the ball. Bradley Beal will
help when he returns from that too. He has improved so much as a
defender. It's just it's not even funny at this point, Like I'm just
I'm not even joking here. This is just like Devin Booker is is a
two way player, and I don't really like framing things this two way because
it's like people when they say two way superstars. We've seen him have his
his struggles and they're still insulating him to some degree. But like he's defended
a lot. He's defended some at the point of attack. We saw him
pick up against Jeremy Sowen. We've seen him go, but also kind of
defend like the bigger guys like a Jonathan kaminga Andrew Wiggins. Even in that
game he spent some time on Steph Curry when he played the Warriors. I
think he's dealing with that ankle soreness. That's something to monitor. But when
you look at what he's going to be able to do as a passer,
I'm hoping we get to see a stretch of games. I don't care if
Bradley Beal's healthier and he doesn't. He doesn't need Bradley Beal or Kevin Durant
to drive the Suns towards a good offense. Maybe outside of crunch time,
he doesn't need that second star. It would not shock me at predicted the
average he would set a career high and assists, so about seven assists per
game. I thought that was bold. It might not have been bold enough
again, if he just puts together once he gets healthy, this is someone
who can average eight or nine assists. I'm that high on his patch,
that his evolution as a passer, and then also thinking like he's gonna give
them Sun's defense. Overall, by the way, rim production can be shaky.
It's been a little bit better than I've expected for the most part looking
at their personnel, especially when you're not getting to you know, it took
them all out of dust Off k to batesd Op. They're not playing NOAs
little as much. They are playing Josh Kogie a bunch. So there's that
for sure, But like they've really gone to Okay, we're gonna have Nurkic
on the floor, We're gonna have Eric Gordon on the floor. Not necessarily
what you would think are their best defensive lineups, but they figured it out
a way you too want. An nobby's been good for them. They're still
trying to figure things out. I'm delving too much into what I'm gonna cover
in Monday's mail bag. So I think Devin Booker ends up being we look
back on this and he will finish incredibly high in the Let's see if I
can zoom in on this for anyone who wants to get some of the tiers
more on screen. So yes, wrap it up to recap superstars making leaps,
Luca Tatum, Booker, stardom bound leaps, the first time all star
caliber guys, Desmond Vain, max E, K Cunningham, the continuation of
leaps from last season. J Dubb, Devin Vessel, nas Reed. Oh,
you thought their contracts were bad. They are not, at least I
don't think r J. Barrett Tyler, Hero, Michael Porter Jr. Third
year leaps to keep an eye on Scottie Barnes. He might have a case
for the stardom bound one. I'm not gonna lie. Al Prinshange, Gun
Cam Thomas, the second year leaps, Shandon Sharp, Jalen Duran, Mark
Williams, and then just some deep cut leaps. And there are others,
but Matt Ryan, mar John Bochamp, Peyton Watson, Darren Jones Junior.
I don't know if it's making a leap, but the fact that he served
for serviceable Hayward high Smith, Olivia Asar and Jalen Johnson's like the biggest name
I would think in here. I would I argue if we're looking at.
The most meaningful ones are gonna be Jalen Johnson and marjin Bowchamp. I'm not
gonna lie. Maybe you could throw Matt Ryan or Peyton Watson in there.
I just marjor On Bowchamp, but Jail Johnson are getting more minutes and so
they're probably gonna have a higher impact on their team. I hope you enjoyed
this bonus weekend podcast, which I don't know if I'll be getting in the
habit of, but I really want to try and get you all three episodes
a week. There will be more guests coming on, maybe doing some team
check ins during the middle of the year, but it's it's tough to find
people. I don't want to bother them too much because there are a lot
of capable people who cover the entire NBA, but there aren't a lot of
people who cover the entire NBA. It's a lot of localized stuff, and
I don't want to be bothering the same people to come out and talk about
the entire league. And so Grant and I will try and get two a
week out of us. You always have that mega long episode that we do,
or we either bounce around or maybe there's a theme to it. We're
gonna try and start doing like one ever Green episode a week. We're gonna
do our I think next week or two weeks from now, we have our
like building are all NBA underpaid team, so we'll uh, we'll get to
that. You can look forward to stuff like that. But you know,
mail bags, solo mail bags or stuff like this, in so far as
you guys enjoy them, I don't. I'll be honest, I don't enjoy
recording these episodes because I don't want to talk to myself for fifty plus minutes.
But I think mail bags at least I feel like I'm having a conversation
or if they're you know, this one, if you enjoyed it, I
can look at doing more like this, more kind of solo ones. But
overall I don't like doing this. But the mail bag ones, like the
questions we had on the nd season tournament, it feels like I'm at least
having a conversation with you guys. So let me know if the solo episodes
are okay, if you actually if you actually enjoy them, not that you
sit through them and tolerate them, but if you enjoy them, that'll be
a way to ensure we get you three episodes a week. There could be
weeks where it's two, but we're here, we're pumping out content. Subscribe
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