What is a fellow thermonuclear a efforts. I am Dan Valley coming at you
with a solo and by our standards abbreviated podcast today going to be digging into
some way too soon twenty twenty three NBA trade deadline predictions. I will cannon
ball into that in a moment. But please, my usual reminder, my
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the whole nine at Hardwoodknox everywhere except for IG, which is at Hardwood Underscore
Knox. I don't know what the hell happened there. Any who, I
wrote about NBA trade deadline predictions very at the start of the season, and
I want to see how they aged, and so I will talk about that.
But these are also predictions that I think for the most part, I
will still believe some of them though have aged very poorly. But I will
say for anyone who thinks that it's too early for the twenty twenty three NBA
trade deadline talk, this is not the main pod. This is not the
focus of how we do coverage here, So we're not talking. If people
ask questions about Tracy, will answer them, but that's not our primary focus.
It's also not a problem if podcasts focus on that trades are part of
the NBA. Also, time has a way of speeding up. Remember how
one moment we were in the dead of summer wondering as a family how and
why the Dever Nuggets managed to hash out a contract with DeAndre Jordan two point
seven seconds into free agency. For the next moment, we're you know,
our neighbors are putting up inflatable winter holiday decorations that billow in the wind,
like Kevin Duran's allegiance to the Brooklyn Nets. The lead up to the trade
deadline is going to pass just as quickly. One minute, we're all wondering
how long the Lorie marketing error Utah Jazz Dynasty will last. The next we're
gonna be glued to Twitter wondering if a report from the Unverified Avatar List multiple
Sauces nine about Luka Dante's growing weary of playing Christian Wood shadow real question of
trade is actually true. This is all to say we can talk about the
trade deadline in a responsible fashion. I did structure it for anyone who's wondering
in the interests of maybe, potentially possibly actually getting a prediction correct. I
decided that consequentially reasonable is going to be the theme here. I want my
crystal ball gazing to have a shred of accuracy while also stepping out on some
limbs. So let's head to the Hall of Uninformed prophecies and see what I
cooked up a few weeks ago. The action will start earlier that normal,
is my first prediction. December fifteenth is deemed the unofficially official start of NBA
trade season since that's when a majority of free agents who signed contracts over the
summer can be first dealt. But this demarcation line is beyond arbitrary. The
line share. Free agents for the previous offseason aren't actually jettison just because they're
eligible. This waiting period is more about teams freaking out what they have and
who they are overall, and then letting the buyers and sellers market develop based
off those results. That delay won't exist this year. There will be more
action than months leading up to the deadline than we're typically used to seeing.
I think they may not be blockbustern moves, but these moves also won't purely
happen because the Los Angeles Lakers are currently imploding. Instead, we should expect
prospective sellers to act with more haste, especially those who are too inadvertently good
to be deliberately awful. I wrote that I don't think team CEO Denny Age
will stand for the Jazz being within earshot of five hundred that has aged pretty
poorly. The Spurs were supposed to be the most organically bad team in the
league. They're not gonna let their respectable start slide. I don't think that's
a team that's gonna move. Jo Stritchers and Yaka Pearle, Doug mc dermott,
other sellers will also emerge from the woodwork. I think we're gonna see
Charlotte flirt with this at some point, and there will also just be teams
that are looking to out lose franchises and try to deal themselves into top three
lottery odds, and that that could be you know, there could be some
shocking teams there. Like I do think this is the year that we also
see Eric Gordon get moved by Houston. It could be a matter of when,
and perhaps that takes longer, but I think some of these calls get
made sooner, including a team like Washington where like they're sort of hovering near
the bottom of the league. They just beat the Mavericks though post recording this,
so maybe they're not a team that gets there. But I do think
there are candidates to just sort of you know, there's there's the there's the
usual suspects, Like I said, the Spurs, the Pacers with Miles turn
and Buddy Heels floating around. But I just think that we could see some
surprise sort of moves go in that regarding maybe the Knicks decide to Pivotto into
that sort of structure. So I do still believe that we'll see action sooner
rather than later, and look, frankly, I think we should expect to
see it from the buyers mar as well. This year's competitive landscape is duh.
Eep want to be contenders who might fall behind the field Miami, Philly,
Minnesota at this point, or title hopers who are good but not quite
finished. Think Phoenix with all the injuries, plus Jay Crowder is not with
the team and Brooklyn they have to do something. They can't lay in wait
for error. There is no margin for it at the top or even inside
the middle of this year, and so I think teams will pounce on upgrades
accordingly. Emphasis on. I think there Russell Westbrook will get jettison to San
Antonio or Indiana. That is not a very spicy take, I think,
though it's aged pretty poorly. I'm not necessarily talking about the Chris Haynes report
over at Bleacher Report that said there are teams that are showing interest in Russ
since he excuse me, I've exhausted. Since he moved to the bench,
he has been playing really well overall. Most of his looks are coming at
the rim. He's just in a more organic role there. I don't believe
that there are a ton of teams that are just going to want Russell Westbrook
services. The Pacers and the Spurs always loomed as sort of the most likely
landing spots. Yeah, like if the Spurs have all this caspace in the
world, so the Lakers want to preserve their financial flexibility moving forward. Josh
Chritchardson's an expiring contract, jaka Peurtle is an expiring contract, so you can
work out a deal for those two. For russ the Spurs have a casspace
to do that. And then are you sending both picks out? Is that
even enough for the Spurs? I think it should be. Is it enough
for the Lakers? Get to that in a second. There's also just you
could go the Pacers route and say, well, Miles Turners a really good
fit. Helps the defense, which is sort of regress now that opponents aren't
getting as unlucky on their shooting. Allows Anthony Davis to play more power forward
even in closing lineups, because you can use crunch time units that feature those
two. And then Buddy Heal's salary. Yeah, he's one of the best
pull up three point shooters in the game. He looks like he's kind of
found the joy again in basketball this year relative to how he finished his time
with the King's huge salary for next year. Maybe you can move off of
it since it's an expiring contract if you want to prioritize cap space. I
will say that why this is age so poorly is will the Lakers actually make
this trade. We also saw the report Howard Beck said he talked to executives
that had said they believe the Lakers are waiting on like a TVD superstar that's
not Kyrie irving to become available. They're known to covet Bradley Beal. Per
Chris Haynes that certainly Biel is the one that makes sense. He's like the
right age bracket his contract because he's old enough. He stills over two hundred
million dollars left on it after this season. It's big enough to be viewed
as an albatross. He also has a no trade clause, so if he
wants to go to LA, you're watchington you could accept that package. So
that's a team that I guess could sort of come out of the woodwork here.
I just don't know though, if the Lakers are gonna be motivated to
make a move because they're so bad right now that I don't think any one
trade fixes this. They need to simultaneously get better and deepen their roster.
A star trade doesn't do that, And even just a straight up rush trade
at this point, if you're only getting act like two players like a Miles
Turner, Buddy Healer, Josh Chrichard and Jaco Purl, Yeah you're deeper,
but how much better are you? I do you would be so much better
with Bradley Beale, I want to make that clear, But like you're still
tethering your livelihood to this three star model where hey, Anthony Davis is playing
through a back injury and always banged up. Lebron has an aductor injury right
now, we don't know much time he's he's going to miss. And then
Bradley Beale has not been immune to has not been immune to injuries himself.
He missed a chunk of last season. So that's the concern there. And
I think it's less likely that I think it's less likely that Rust gets traded
now than it was November. First, let's say, and I don't know
how much it ultimately costs to get rid of him, he is playing better
now again, I still don't think any team that's going to acquire him does
so with the intention of keeping him, which is going to drum up the
price. Things always come out of left field in this league. But the
Lakers of the second worst record in the NBA right now, they might have
already fallen too far behind. I just don't think there's a move out there
that makes them a contender, which is all to say. I think that
this is might age poorly, but that was my Russell West, Protindian or
San Antonio. I'll stick with it. Next one these notable stars will get
traded non stars, excuse me, we'll get traded Harrison Barnes, who Look.
You can interpret this as the Kings will cannonball into an impromptu tank if
you're feeling spicy. It's more about Barnes being on an expiring contract in Sacramento
already having his replacement in Keegan Murray. It's also about that the way Barnes
has been playing, if you move him, it's probably anti tank King.
So yeah, I think he's gonna get dealt. The Heat are kind of
staring right there, and the Kings love shooting, so just go with the
Duncan Robinson plus picks package. At that point, are they brazen enough to
like do a Kyle Lowry deal there? So that's, you know, one
to consider. I also if Jake Crowder on this, he's currently DMP takes
Eric Butzo's tweets literally in Phoenix, so yeah, he's gone. He has
to be. His sons can't afford to just have one of their six best
players on the payroll and then not on the court, especially when Cam Johnson
is recovering from aniscus surgery. Chris Paul's out right now and has not been
shooting the ball too well. They've lost a ton of leverage given how he
closed the postseason and the fact that you know, everyone around the league knows
what's what now. But his salary can at least be turned into a rotation
player, even if it's not a top six guy, or folded into a
larger deal that upgrades the meat and potatoes of the Sun's rotation. I think
Eric Gordon gets moved as well. I mean, there was a tweet that
Jasmine L. Watkins had the video of him just like staring at a fight
between I don't even remember who it was, but he just looks like I'm
too old for this ship right now. He's thirty three years old. That
may be prohibitive for some, but he still offers outside shooting and rim pressure
without knoking your perimeter defense. His contract also comes off the books after this
year unless his team wins the title, room makes an all star roster,
and which either of those scenarios, you would gladly pay him. This is
my final non star. I think the Raptors trade Gary Trent Jr. He's
a player option for next season. He's going in decline. The Raptors need
is shooting, but they also have to start planning a new contracts for Fred
van Vliet, who has a player option next summer. Pascal Siakam. He's
a free agent twenty twenty four and he's extension knowledgeable now. O Ganna Nobi
will be extension eligable next summer, and Scottie barnes Is next deal will be
here before you know it. Well. The Raptors pay will probably be twenty
plus million dollars per year to keep a non star like Trent. I had
my doubts. It'd be different if GTJ provide a little more on ball creativity
in the half court, but he's no table center, and while moving him
made jeopardize their ninety nine percentile outcome this season. Team president Messia Jerry hasn't
assembled a team like someone overly concerned with himself, you know, overly concerned
with the president. Toronto is playing for the future around Scottie Barnes, competing
now as sort of this convenient luxury. If push comes to shove, I
think they'll take the long review and move GTJ at the trade deadline. I
stick with all of those. My next prediction, at least one of Charlotte,
Chicago, Sacramento and Washington sell hard. Interesting. The Kings have perked
up since I last wrote this, so that one doesn't look rate that.
Yeah, looping in the Kings is weird. It's just it's hard to a
vision what a sell off looks like. Too. They're not gonna dear Fox
playing out of his mind and Sabonis barring a trade request. Why are you
moving either of those guys? Also, Harrison Barnes like currently fueled some of
their struggles. Movie for Shawn Holmes feels a little bit immaterial at this point,
and it's probably too early for them to sell low on Davey on Mitchell.
Does someone pony up big time assets for Kevin Hurder, But why are
you moving him? He's played so well for you so truthfully, if the
King's one year tank it and I'm they're not at that point, ye don't
want to make that clear. They're probably just shutting people down rather than moving
towards a tear down. The Hornets are a good bet. They were frisky
to start the season, have leveled off a little bit. I know Steve
Clifford teams tend to overachieve, but they don't have a mellow back yet.
So like by February, if not sooner, is anyone other than the mellow
ball gonna be bolted down on this rouls. I guess Nick Richards, with
the way that he's playing a one year nosedives makes too much sense for this
franchise, knowing that Lamello's extension is looming. I thought about Chicago. They've
played better since I predicted this they but they're still fragile. Zach Lavine says
his left knee is fine, but like he didn't play five on five over
the offseason, and he's been in and out of the lineup for them,
that seems not fine, and I guess they can survive choppy availability from him
on offense, But they also pant their offense has underperformed relative their defense,
which is overperformed. They're not gonna head the ball. It sounds like for
at least the entire season. That being said, the Bulls over their first
round pick to Orlando with extremely loose top four protection. Finishing with a bottom
four record will be one terribly difficult in the eventual tanking climate. And too,
it only gives you a fifty two point one percent chance of keeping that
top four protected pick. So I don't think they deliberately explore rock bottom.
Could I see a scenario though, where it's like, Oh, if someone's
willing to give you value for vouch, do we look at it now?
I just don't think they're gonna get to the point in respect where it's,
oh, do we get if a team comes calling for Lavine? Do we
just get rid of him? Or or even Damar de Rosen like that was
someone that I think a lot of people thought couldn't find his way on the
shopping blox. They're a tough one. No such limitations exist for the Wizards.
Though I think they're the sneaky candidate. They have that twenty twenty three
first round pick obligated to the Knicks, but it's lottery protected, so they
can tank their hearts out. It doesn't even have to evolve moving Beal.
He can't be done until January anyway, and he has the no trade clause.
You could shut him down and run this back next year. But the
Wizards also have like a number of good middle ground players they can ship out
to fire up the gap year tank if that's the route they go, and
after Charlotte from this group, they feel like the squad most likely to do
so, don't roll out. How were the Wizards supposed to know there would
be consequentious for their decisions trade rumors surrounding Bill Either we've already gotten them with
the Lakers. I feel like, so if I to rank these four teams
in likelihood that they will sell Charlotte one Washington two. Is Chicago more likely
than Sacramento because this Harrison Barnes and Rashaun Holmes count is selling at this point.
I'm gonna put Sacramento because like, maybe they just cut ties with Davy
on Mitchell. Two. Sacramento and then Chicago lash because they're not in a
situation. If I had a pick, which of these teams are most likely
to buy, I'm gonna rank Sacramento first, like they just do the inverse.
I'll have Washington second, just because, like, if it looks like
they can enter the playoff discussion, you might as well roll the dice on
their distant first round pick, since you know that twenty twenty three would in
fact go to the Knicks. Then I'm gonna put Chicago just because they have
the impetus to sell buy excuse me, not the assets, though, I
guess if you're really high on pat Will still you really do kind of need
them though looking at the wing rotation. Then Charlotte they just have. They
didn't look like they wanted to buy over the summer, so they won't be
now. Next prediction, Cleveland and Miami will both trade for a member of
their go to closing lineup. That how's that for like specificity? Does anyone
like that? Is it just me? I'll stick with this. They both
need to iron out a fifth spot and their most important units. Cleveland would
be the most likely team to wait. It's Core is younger, that Core
is also ready to win now though Dean Way is a nice find and just
sort of everywhere he's supposed to be, but the Cavs need higher end solutions.
Playing Carol at the three I think is gonna have its long term defensive
and maybe even offensive limitations now that Darius Garland is ready to rock. Isaaco
Coros just no kind of out on Isaaco core Right now. There's Jetty Osman,
but he's more of a three point five than a three on his best
days. Trading dono Mitchell did drain Cleveland's draft picks dash, but they're not
without assets. They have leverts expiring contracts which can be a quality salary ranchor
if the Cabs don't view him as part of the bigger picture, Osmond seven
point four million dollars is basically expiring next year's non guaranteed for him. Rebuilding
teams should be willing to take a flyer on o'corro's defense and the idea of
his offball slashing. So Cleveland may not have the juice to get targets like
ry Trent Junior, but has Harrison Barnes sort of played his way into their
purview? What about Josh Richardson, Joe Harris, Cody Martin once he's trade
eligible. Miami meanwhile has more flexibility to trade its future first and definitely needs
to diversify the front court spot vacated by p J. Tucker. They can
use Duncan Robinson's deal, which has three years and fifty seven point five million
left on it after this one, to bring Brax sizeable money. While Ja
Crowder reunion will be perfect, it probably requires a third team. Phoenix shouldn't
be turning Crowder into rob They'll first, I'll have to send out more money
to bring back Robinson. I believe I should probably look at what Robinson is
making. He's pretty up there, So you're gonna get a pick back from
I Like, that's not going to help you now for the heat. Also,
how many picks does it take to get who you're looking for? That
Duncan Robinson deal is a net negative? So are you giving up if you
can do one first round pick? Okay? But does that get you?
Kelly Brady Junior, kJ Martin, Boyon Bogdanovitch is still trade eligible. Are
you rolling the dice? Harrison Barnes Right now, the Clippers consider trading Mark
as more as senior. Could you get Larry Marketing from the Jazz? About
that? I don't think the Jazz would trade him, But if they really
wanted to tank, if there's Yovich in a first round pick plus Duncan Robinson
or just two first round picks and Duncan Robinson for Larry Marketing, that would
be that'd be overkill I think for Miami. But like, does that something
they consider the heat? Also, just looking at they can trade up to
three picks and three swaps. They could poke around the star market if Bradley
Beale what comes available, and their half court of offense could use the juice.
It probably hurts that they can't trade Tyler Hero right now. I mean
they can, but the poison pill makes it really difficult. I think that
they could get involved in a Bradley Beal talks though, and they arguably might
need to unless Kyle Lowry just plays. I mean, he's played better.
But like, I think it's very clear what Bam is on the offensive end,
which is a really good player who can't necessarily spearhead attacks. So I
do think maybe it's not a star though, But looking at Cleveland and looking
at Miami, I think they both need fifth members. They're closing you because
in Cleveland you have four Jared Allen, Evan, Mobi, Donovan Mitchell,
and Darius Garland. Dean Wade would be my fifth, but I think you
can upgrade from that. In Miami it's Lowry, Hero Butler at a bio
or guaranteed, and right now I think you have to have it. Pete
Cody Martin. I think you can definitely get an upgrade. I mean probably
over Kyle Lowry at this point, but is the fourth spot over Cody Martin
as well? So yeah, I'll stick with that. Here's this One's my
final one, and it's I guess it's some of the Brooklyn Nets will trade
at least one star. I like, I don't you know, I don't
even know if I have to justify this at this point. This is a
blisteringly hot take. If you trust the net Brooklyn Nets to enjoy the trials
and tribulations of this regular season without any more drama whatsoever. That's to say
this is not a blisteringly hot take. The Nets are already struggling like they've
they've gotten better since Kyrie was temporarily exiled or whatever. But Ben Simmons still
battling injuries, come back in more of a limited capacity off the bench.
There's no offensive aggression there. He's just getting rid of the ball. I
mean even when you look at his assists, like he's just pitching the ball
to someone else without ever getting past the free throw line. Really, he's
getting rid of the ball really early in transition too. That's something I wrote
about a while back. They started to use Simmons without a big line ups
before he got injured and then came back. You have to keep leaning into
those, But I don't know if that's going to be like the cure.
All they are getting cold cocked by some unsustainably volcanic opponent three point shooting,
but they can't grab a rebound to save their life in a bunch of lineups
and like they're just they're twenty eighth and points allowed per possession still after made
shot according to Predictable, that is not That is not good. Maybe Brooklyn
survives all this turmoil. Count on that at your own peril. Kevin Durant
already requested to trade over the offseason and then pushed the organization to fire both
Strawn Marks and Steve Nash. Steve Nash has since been fired. Let's not
forget that Kyrie not only away from them, already tried to seek a trade
himself. As of right now, like Corn to Sean Marks, he has
not had contact with Kyrie Irving. So this is like, look, this
team is essentially this is fine meme, but with smoke trickling in under the
doorway rather than a raging inferno. The thing is, the raging inferno comes
later. At least one of the next next Stars will ask for out or
removing, an attempt to start fresh or something. I don't know who to
been on though, like to like, I'm just in the mind we can
end it here. Too much has already happened for this to play out on
any underway other way, excuse me. At the same time, though,
like when you're looking at Brooklyn Stars, what is Ben Simmons's value? Probably
nil? What is Kyrie Irving? I think he's probably the most likely because
Lebron already seems like he's talking to himself in the Kyrie Irving. I just
wouldn't put a trade request past Kevin Durant, nor would shock me if part
of the terms of his return was, hey, we'll give this until January,
and if it's not working, we'll send you where you want to go.
So that would be something to keep an eye on. Those of my
prediction, I'll have new ones, but I wanted to go over and see
how those aged. Those didn't age that poorly. I don't think. I
means some of them are just a little spotty, but I think they were
fine overall. My internet connection, apparently late at night, is just absolutely
awful, which is physically the hell offs. I'll end it here. Please
remember to rate reviewing subscriber ever you're consuming us. If you stuck with me
through the video and my body was poor, I apologize until next time they'll
leave. Get the shout out to the one the only, the indelible won't
be traded, but because he is quite literally untouchable, Frank Neil Kina