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Hello everyone, and welcome to the
latest episode of Hardwood Knocks. This is

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out. I'm from Will here with
my fantastic co host Dan for Valley.

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I'm excited for this episode because for
the first time in like ten days,

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I'm no longer sick and actually have
my voice back. But unfortunately, it's

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Dan's turn to be a little bit
sick, so he's gonna power through this

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and I'm hoping that you're feeling okay. Dan, how's it going? I

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am. I feel very fortunate to
feel the way that I do after testing

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positive again. As the day we
record this. Recording this on a Sunday

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before Klay Thompson's return, you all
probably won't be listening to it until Tuesday.

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I tested positive again for COVID after
quarantining for five days. But I'm

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feeling relative to that fantastic. You
know how much it takes for me to

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skip workouts. I went three full
days without working out. Saturday. At

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night, I was like, I
can't do this anymore. I'm going stir

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crazy. I did a back workout. I've had better workouts, but I've

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also had worse, so I'm happy. I have not done legs in a

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week. Now, I normally you
two leg workouts a week, but here

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we are. I mean, I
was lucky. One of my editors,

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Brian Notch and I the Hymn forced
me to take a second day off of

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work this week after I tried to
come back after a day. So again,

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I'm sure people have had it way
worse. I feel very fortunate.

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I'm glad you're feeling better because you
were sicker than I was for longer than

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I was. Yeah, it was. It was not a fun ten days

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test. I tested negative a couple
of times, but I'm questioning the validity

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of those tests considering the symptoms I
had. But that was I'm good now,

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Yeah, something like that. But
you know it's not fake news.

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Are the stats that we're going to
be going over in this podcast. We've

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already done the Eastern Conference edition,
where we found one interesting maybe telling,

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maybe not so telling, and just
interesting stat for each and every Eastern Conference

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team. It's it's Western Conference Day
today, so we're gonna start off with

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Dan with the Dallas Mavericks, and
then alternate teams going alphabetically. I do

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have one from Memphis, even though
it's not mine because I couldn't so I'm

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just overachieving on this episode. Wow, that's a bold statement to say before

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you even relate a single one of
your stats. As usual, I tried

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to pick stuff they're more of like
a theme. It's it's centralized around one

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number, but they're more like a
theme that's explainable. And I think this

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time it was a little not harder, but the focus was. I made

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even more of a point to be
like, let me pick numbers that makes

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sense relative to what the team has
gone through this season, because we have

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all these you know, ten day
contracts, players in health and safety protocols

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at this point. So that's how
I keep finding it. I gravitate more

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towards like player centric numbers for whatever
reason, I just can't help myself.

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So like I tended to want to
like highlight a player from a team with

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a few exceptions, whereas like my
number is more about the team as a

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whole. I've isolated back and forth. I tried to pick numbers that I

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thought weren't as mainstream, like if
I have Golden State, and like,

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I really just want to reiterate that
Draymond Green is shooting a career high not

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only at the rim, but on
twos that are outside the restricted area but

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inside the paint, because I think
that's been important to Oh my god,

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that's been important to Golden State's offense
at points. But it's like I feel

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like that's known, like a Gary
Payton his efficiency on cuts and after ball

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screens. I feel like that's known. So I tried to go like against

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the grain and stuff that you and
I specifically haven't talked about. This one

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might be an exception, but I
feel like we need to reiterate that the

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Mavericks still, their offense is just
like not diverse or effective enough at all.

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They rank My number for this I'm
gonna try to remember is twenty eighth

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they are or twenty eight excuse me. They ranked twenty eighth in location effective

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field goal percentage, which is your
expected field goal percentage relative to where your

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shot locations are coming from. They
are actually outperforming that to where I think

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they're nineteenth in actual effective field goal
percentage at this point, but they're just

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not getting enough easy shots. They
are twenty eighth in the frequency with which

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they reached the rim. They are
twenty eight in transition frequency as well.

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Those two are definitely related. Their
thirtieth in average offensive possession time overall,

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that one's per impredictable and they're not
like this lights out shooting team when it

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comes to wide open jumpers. And
so you're looking at an offense with or

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without Donchitch really, because I think
there was more pep in Dallas's step at

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points when they were using all those
ten day guys before, and I think

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that sort of underscore the fact that
they're not generating easy looks, and then

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they're not necessarily making the most of
the easy looks that they are generating.

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And so to have an offense like
this that's so reliant on when they're at

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full strength, but Luca Donteche can
do, and then what Jalen Brunson has

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been doing, and he's really you
know, even if you factor in Luca,

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like Jalen Brunson is probably the best
at putting actual pressure on the basket

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from a ball handling perspective. On
this team, they need someone who can

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help improve that, which is why
whenever we talk trade targets, I go

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back to Eric Gordon. For them, they just need another they need that

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type of guy, or they need
a really a second star then, because

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if you're gonna try and some on
some of these tougher looks. You need

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people who can actually make them,
and like Tim Hardaway Junior is very much

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with all the respected to Hardaway Junior. Not it spoiler alert, but we're

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going to have more on Eric Gordon
in a little bit once we get to

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the Houston Rockets. But I do
think as a follow up there, that

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you're kidding yourself if you don't think
this has something to do with the coach

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too. It does, and it
definitely does. But at the same time,

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yes, I think they've gotten away
from Luca too much when he's been

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healthy. But you also could argue, you know, Jalen's Brunton's breakout,

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does that happen under Rick Carlo?
I will say the rim frequency, isn't

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it already kind of happening under Rick
Carlo? It was? And I'm just

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so hesitant to give Jason Kid credit
for anything. He's getting volumed by default

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and his role has just changed substantially
this year. I'm not going to give

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Jason Kid credit for that. Fair
I will say, though, the lack

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of emphasis on getting out in transition
and just the rim frequency in general,

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those are problems that pre date Jason
Kidd, and I think you can argue

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if you have Luke on your team, maybe you can't use transsition frequency as

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an accurate gauge, But it does
show like some extra level of an offensive

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gear and it'd be nice to even
have that. When he's off the floor,

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they play a little bit faster,
and we saw that when he was

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out for a while. But it's
just and when Jalen Brunson is really the

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primary ball handle at the helm,
you might play faster. This offense is

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just so it's blah, it's very
vanilla still if you want to, that

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might be the nicest way to put
is that this is they're just not as

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efficient as last year. And that
probably comes back to did they take the

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ball out of Lucas hands a little
bit a little bit more often on too

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high a scale when he actually is
on the floor. Well, even if

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we go beyond year over a year, if you look two years ago,

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Dallas was obliterating every offensive rating known
to man kind. So the fall from

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that to the current lackluster offense without
too many personnel changes of note, is

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not good. I'm totally with you
there, And I think another off season

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and this falls on the front office, even though it's new. We're now

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in the third straight off season where
they didn't make any material changes to the

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roster and the core now feels a
little bit stale. It does, which

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is hard to believe considering the level
Porzingis has been playing at Christops. Porzingis,

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like, I think you can make
an All Star case for him this

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year. It might be a little
bit of a stretch, but he has

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been that effective when he's been on
the court. You can't make an All

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Star case or Christops Perzinkis get out
of here. No, I'm not letting.

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I'm not. This is like Nicole
Yokitch's defensive player of be your favorite

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type kid from you right now?
I know, I think you can make

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a fringe case like as an injury
replacement or something. If you expand to

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the rosters to fifteen players, then
you could you can make a case there.

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He's been He's been good enough for
it. If you expand the roster

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eighteen players and insist that you have
to like that, you have to go

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buy front court and backcourt even least
place still that bitter over the Knicks breakup.

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Huh, I'm not bitter at all. I don't think he looked what

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player did he turned into? He
turned into a non All Star, right,

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fair enough? Fair enough. Let's
move on to the Denver Nuggets,

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though, and I am going to
highlight Yokich again here with the number two

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point eight. And the reason I'm
doing that is because everyone knows how good

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he is, and yet I'm not
sure it's been made clear how good he

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is. Because he is the reigning
MVP, he should be in the MVP

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conversation right now, and it still
feels like the level at which he's playing

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is flying a little bit below the
radar. Because the Nuggets are struggling to

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break free from an around five hundred
record, the story has been more focused

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on the personnel losses that they've had, whether it's Jamal Murray or Michael Porter

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Junior. And then you throw in
all of the COVID nineteen protocol stuff and

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how many bodies they're having to cycle
in and out of the lineup on a

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daily basis, much like every other
team, and it does feel like Yokich

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hasn't quite gotten enough credit for being
so ridiculously dominant. So I'm using five

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thirty eight raptor based or metric here, and the difference between Yokich, who

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is at nine point seven and Fred
van Fleet, who is at number two

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at six point eight, is two
point eight points. That is as big

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as the difference between van Fleet and
number fifteen Mike Conley. He is that

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far ahead of the field. Beyond
that, only eleven players all of last

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season topped the nine point seven war
that Yokich has already registered. We're not

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even at the All Star break and
he already is submitting like a top twelve

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most Valuable season relative to last year. He is on pace to obliterate his

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league best finish from the twenty twenty
twenty one campaign thanks to drastically improved defensive

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metrics without an offensive drop off.
He is playing the best basketball of his

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career, just at a ridiculously historic
level, and it is not getting the

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love that it needs to get because
the Nuggets have not performed up to that

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same standard. I think he and
I mentioned this on our mailbag podcas last

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week. I think he's the MVP
right now, and I think it might

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be pretty decidedly. I'm I do
think steth People's side is shooting percentage is

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dropping a lot. I think he's
firmly in it, and I don't think

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that anything is etched in stone right
now, but I think to me,

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Jo Kids would be my MVP vote
without second guessing it all that much at

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this very moment in the RPR,
the Rolling Player Rating MVP predictor that we

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use at mbamath like he is head
and shoulders above everyone else for first place,

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and then there's a second tier that
includes Steph and Lebron and Janis and

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Durant, and then a third tier
that has like Trey Young and Demarta Rosen

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and Donovan Mitchell and all those guys. But statistically he is he is lapping

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the field at this point, just
absolutely lapping it, lapping at Statistically,

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he's just he's had just mind melting
statistical seasons over the past four years.

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That war metric, he the difference
between number one and number two is the

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same as number two and number fifteen. Like, think about that. It's

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it's it's mind blowing. Let's move
on to the Golden State Warriors though,

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and hat tip. I asked friend
of the Pod, Jacob Borne, what

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he wanted me to talk about and
investigate further that could maybe catch you off

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guard, and he said Golden State's
rebounding. So I investigated Golden State's rebounding.

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Golden State is eighth in defensive rebounding
outside of garbage time. Their defensive

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rebounding rate their last five years,
though their ranks in the past five years

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twenty twenty two, twenty one,
twenty second, twenty nineteen, twenty twenty,

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twenty fourth, twenty eighteen, two
thousand, nineteen seventeen, twenty seventeen,

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twenty eighteen, twenty ninth, and
then two thousand and sixteen twenty seventeen,

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twenty sixth. Golden State has not
ranked in the top half of defensive

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rebounding rate since two thousand thirteen two
thousand fourteen, so their number is eight

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for this, I'm trying to remember
to do that. I will say this

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is also what I found interesting.
Two. Only the heat allow fewer putback

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attempts per one hundred plays on the
defensive end, so Golden State is set

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in that metric. And the other
thing otto Porter. They're statistically awash with

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him when you look at their rebounding
him being on the court, He's been

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so good on the glass, I
think even better than many who knew that

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Otto Porter Junior was a good rebounder
expected, and lineups with he and Draymond

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Green have a seventy nine point eight
defensive rebounding rate, which I don't like

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making these comps, but that would
lead the league by a mile, and

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it ranks in the ninety six percentile
of lineups with blogging at least ten possessions

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overall. So their rebounding has been
I think it's one of the things that

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has not followed by the wayside.
But you're focusing on Draymond Green's defensive Player

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of the Year case. Everyone was
focusing on Steph and shooting threes. You're

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focusing on Jordan Pool's breakout, Gary
Payton the second people want Andrew Wiggins to

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make an All Star team. They're
rebounding has sort of flown under the radar,

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though they're still not playing especially big. They have Kamon Looney, Amania

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be Elites a, Draymond Jta,
Otto Porter Junior or Jonathan Kamika like those

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are their main front line players.
You know, Gary Payton and Steph are

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above average remounders for their position,
but they're not you know, so they're

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not this huge team and I don't
think they really upended their roster. And

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anyway, if anything, you could
argue without James Wiseman, that should be

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the one area in which he would
definitely help them. And for them to

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be this good of a defensive rebounding
team is truly impressive to me. I

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would say the credit definitely falls to
the Wings. I would think, like

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Draymond and the Wings because Porter has
made a big impact there, Peyton has

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made a big impact. They're just
the physicality ending possessions. But yeah,

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I would not have expected a leap
quite that substantial. What is Clay's return

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going to do to that? Because
he was never the best rebounding swing man.

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Yeah, but like if he's taking
is he's taking Damian Lee's minutes,

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or if he's kinting in Andrew Wiggins, Wiggins doesn't rebound. So look,

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and to the point about steps shooting
percentages, if anyone cares, I was

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just checking where Steph ranked in scoring
gravity impact this season. It's still third

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in the league. The mere concept
of Steph and Curry Ray and no Jannis

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and Yokich. So look, that's
perpy Bell Index. It's just I don't

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think in this whole shout Yokich.
There's no one in the league who not

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having the ball, just by virtue
of being on the court has a bigger

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offensive impact than Steph Curry probably in
the history of basketball. I think it

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was Anthony Doyle maybe who was saying
this on Twitter the other day about how

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we're quick to credit Steph for reinventing
how basketball has played and having such a

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monumental impact on the next generation,
when it might actually be like Damian Lillard,

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00:14:28,919 --> 00:14:33,120
who is the more likely candidate,
because as popular as Steff is,

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no one can replicate the way that
he produces his threes, Like those relocation

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threes that he's so good at are
just impossible to actually replicate. And it's

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really guys like Damian Lillard, like
Trey Young who are taking those pull up

220
00:14:46,440 --> 00:14:50,440
threes from such long range with such
frequency that are having the impact on the

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up and comers, which I think
is an interesting thing to think about,

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just because Steph is unique, even
among the unique players. Yeah, he

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he's just he's one of one.
He's just he's one of one. Uniqueness

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is not is technically an either or
concept. There aren't really degrees of uniqueness,

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But if there were Steph would be
the most unique. He is anomalous

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00:15:13,279 --> 00:15:16,919
times infinity. There you go,
perfect, that's the stat. That's a

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that's a great number. Are you
ready to move on to Houston? Yeah?

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So for Houston, my number is
four. And that is both the

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reason that they're going to get at
least a first round pick for Eric Gordon

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at the trade deadline and also the
number of players who have played in at

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least twenty games and are shooting better
than forty percent on both catch and shoot

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and pull up triples while taking more
than two threes per game. So the

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four are Eric Gordon obviously, Tyrese
Haliburton, Desmond Bayane, and Devin Booker.

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And I'm curious if any of those
names are surprising to you. They're

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not, because it kind of steps
on the toes of a stat I use

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later on. But I think he's
still important, So please don't give into

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the supporting cast of this stat too
much, poor Vavore. Fair enough.

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So I'm gonna say that Gordon is
taking two point nine catching shoot threes per

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game and hitting forty five point nine
percent of them, which is number eight

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among players taking at least two per
game. He's also taking two point one

241
00:16:07,320 --> 00:16:11,120
pull up threes per game and hitting
forty point eight percent of them, which

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is number seven among players taking at
least two per game. Houston has largely

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00:16:15,440 --> 00:16:19,320
struggled across the board. Gordon has
not. He's been unbelievably good, which

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is why he's a reasonable fit for
basically any team looking for an upgrade at

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00:16:25,279 --> 00:16:27,200
the deadline. He is. I
would be shocked if he is still with

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the Rockets beyond February, and I
would be even more shocked if he doesn't

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bring back at least a first round
pick for Houston. Yeah, there's I've

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00:16:36,440 --> 00:16:41,279
seen trades and I was talking with
someone who covers the Rockets and they were

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00:16:41,279 --> 00:16:44,960
asking me about hypothetical trades, and
I was just shocked at how little they

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00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:48,399
were willing to accept from him.
And I would think, you need and

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00:16:48,399 --> 00:16:51,240
it will probably be contending teams that
go after him, And so I'm thinking

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in my mind, if it's a
bottom seven pick in this year's draft,

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like you probably need more than a
first round pick, probably a first than

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00:16:57,399 --> 00:17:00,559
a second to get him, would
be my guest. That would be my

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00:17:00,679 --> 00:17:03,119
guess, as well, his age, injury history, paying him nineteen plus

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million, whatever it is, next
year. I get the hesitance, but

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I'm with you where I think it's
the barrier for entry for Eric Gordon if

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it's less than a first round pick. I will be surprised if they believe

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him for less than that. And
we can focus on the shooting too,

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because that's where he's excelled so much. But that's by no means the full

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extent of his game. He can
put pressure on the rim, he's a

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little bit feisty in the defensive end, he can rebound like, there's a

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lot that he brings to that proverbial
table beyond the shooting. It's just that

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00:17:30,759 --> 00:17:34,359
he is excelled to such an extent. The shooting is the easy, low

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hanging fruit to highlight. I'm not
too proud to pick the low hanging fruit

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he's I think with him too,
he's probably having the best passing season of

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his career. Is that just a
Is that natural improvement or just a matter

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of volume. I don't know.
But your point about the rim pressure that

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I really just don't think is like
gets talked about enough with him, is

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thirty seven percent of his shots are
coming at the rim this year. That

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00:17:56,079 --> 00:18:00,039
is his highest twenty thirteen twenty fourteen
and among players who play position it's the

272
00:18:00,079 --> 00:18:04,119
seventy eight percent tile. It's also
not out of character what he hasn't been

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alongside James Harden because they very much
had him camping way out, because last

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season he was in the seventy six
percent tile. If you go back to

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his days some with the Pelicans slash
hornets when he was with the Clippers,

276
00:18:14,720 --> 00:18:18,160
those rim numbers were there. No, he's not like this super explosive athletic

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guy, but he is like Beefy
in a good way. He's thick.

278
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He is thick and he just gets
through and he is fairly quick. So

279
00:18:26,640 --> 00:18:30,440
when he's healthy, he's giving you, I would say, two levels of

280
00:18:30,519 --> 00:18:33,960
scoring, which is really important in
someone who if you want to call him

281
00:18:34,440 --> 00:18:37,359
a role player, supporting cast member
might be the kinder way to put it.

282
00:18:37,680 --> 00:18:41,200
So I think maybe he I don't
know what this trade deadline is gonna

283
00:18:41,240 --> 00:18:44,319
hold, Not that we ever do, but just with everything that's going on

284
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with the league, I don't know
if that's gonna So many teams fancy themselves

285
00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:49,200
close to the play in because they
are, so is that going to make

286
00:18:49,240 --> 00:18:52,839
a harder spots sellars or is all
the you know, the changing rosters,

287
00:18:52,880 --> 00:18:56,519
the revolving your availability. Does that
make it less likely teams do whatever?

288
00:18:56,599 --> 00:19:00,559
I don't know, but if you're
a contender, so many of them by

289
00:19:00,559 --> 00:19:03,039
the way, and I guess of
offense isn't what you need. But like

290
00:19:03,119 --> 00:19:06,920
Dallas is the team that immediately comes
to mind, even if look Phoenix can

291
00:19:06,960 --> 00:19:08,559
figure out a trade for him.
They're so good, but they're dead last

292
00:19:08,759 --> 00:19:11,960
in the frequency with your shots coming
at the rim. They are talented enough

293
00:19:11,960 --> 00:19:15,480
to where that doesn't matter, but
you look at a playoff setting, some

294
00:19:15,559 --> 00:19:18,279
of that kind of hurt them a
little bit last year. He can really

295
00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:21,160
elevate a team, and I hope
we get to see him on a contender

296
00:19:21,400 --> 00:19:23,519
or a team that's better than the
Rockets before the year is over. So

297
00:19:23,599 --> 00:19:27,599
like any other team, the Rockets
went on that winning street for a second.

298
00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:30,319
The Knicks didn't even have like a
seven game winning streak. It's see

299
00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:33,400
fair. The other thing about Gordon, and this is purely anecdotal. I

300
00:19:33,440 --> 00:19:37,440
don't really have numbers to back this
up, but it does feel like he

301
00:19:37,759 --> 00:19:41,759
sets up at least a step beyond
the three point arc, and there's value

302
00:19:41,799 --> 00:19:45,000
to doing that. I think the
best example is like peak Ryan Anderson,

303
00:19:45,279 --> 00:19:49,400
where he was so comfortable setting up
two feet beyond the arc. That stretches

304
00:19:49,440 --> 00:19:56,200
out defenses just a little bit more
and makes the gravitational pull that much more

305
00:19:56,240 --> 00:19:59,680
impactful. Houston hasn't been able to
capitalize on that, but a good team

306
00:19:59,720 --> 00:20:03,240
will be able to, and Houston
when they were good, did capitalize on

307
00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:04,759
that in the past. The other
thing is when you're starting from further out,

308
00:20:06,559 --> 00:20:10,279
that's going to give him more room
to get that downhill steam. If

309
00:20:10,279 --> 00:20:15,599
he is attacking the basket, we
are onto the Clippers. And if anyone's

310
00:20:15,640 --> 00:20:18,079
watching this on YouTube, I have
two screen set up, so I'm just

311
00:20:18,079 --> 00:20:21,640
glancing at what I wrote about their
stat four. This is a basic one,

312
00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:23,359
but I have some granular stuff to
with it. Their fourth in points

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00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:26,400
aloud per possession. I thought about
focusing on their offense, but a team

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00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:32,640
that's missing Kawhi Leonard and Paul George
now it's in the bottom five of points

315
00:20:32,640 --> 00:20:37,480
scored per possession. How shocking is
that it's not their fourth in points aloud

316
00:20:37,519 --> 00:20:41,160
per possession this season? I think
they've gotten lucky. Their fifth in opponent

317
00:20:41,160 --> 00:20:44,839
field goal percentage at the rim and
second in opponent field goal percentage from three.

318
00:20:44,960 --> 00:20:49,279
I have been very impressed with their
ball pressure and ability to contest shots

319
00:20:49,319 --> 00:20:52,960
on the perimeter in general. Though
they are the best team in the Western

320
00:20:53,000 --> 00:20:59,039
Conference when it comes to allowing the
smallest percentage of jumpers to go uncontested at

321
00:20:59,079 --> 00:21:02,440
just a hair over eight team and
their fourth overall in the league on that

322
00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:07,319
and they've gotten lucky when you look
at the opponent's efficiency in those situations,

323
00:21:07,599 --> 00:21:11,319
but to not allow the high quality
looks as often, especially from the perimeter

324
00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:15,279
when you look at you know,
on their interior they have to play small

325
00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:18,920
up again with and you have Zubots, who's your best rim protector. That's

326
00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:22,400
that's fine, but it's not like
elite level there, and so having that

327
00:21:22,480 --> 00:21:27,279
type of consistency on the perimeter independent
of your two stars, by the way,

328
00:21:27,559 --> 00:21:30,920
I think that's a pretty huge deal, and they could end up being

329
00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:33,279
a problem for someone in the postseason, with or without Kauai, who it

330
00:21:33,319 --> 00:21:37,160
sounds like he might come back this
year. For that report, I think

331
00:21:37,160 --> 00:21:41,039
it was from Chris Haynes of Yahoo
Sports. I still think if they don't

332
00:21:41,039 --> 00:21:42,519
have Kawai, you probably need it'd
be nice to have Eric Gordon on this

333
00:21:42,559 --> 00:21:45,759
team. They just can't trade a
first round pick. They do need that

334
00:21:45,799 --> 00:21:48,559
extra offensive weapon up to really be
a problem. But their defense, what

335
00:21:48,599 --> 00:21:52,000
I'm getting at is legit. I'm
not gonna I didn't go super detail and

336
00:21:52,039 --> 00:21:56,519
say, oh, the people they're
allowing to shoot threes, they're just it's

337
00:21:56,559 --> 00:21:57,799
smart. Those are those are the
right people that are taking them. No,

338
00:21:57,960 --> 00:22:02,839
that's it's just that they are allowing
basically the right kinds of shots.

339
00:22:02,839 --> 00:22:04,799
And I do think that they are, you know, even when the shots

340
00:22:04,799 --> 00:22:10,039
are are good, or they're not
allowing as higher quality looks as other teams,

341
00:22:10,240 --> 00:22:12,319
because they're getting contests in and I
do think that matters in the grander

342
00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:17,720
scheme of their perimeter defense, even
if there is a set part now has

343
00:22:17,759 --> 00:22:22,680
called it a lot of Jedi shooting
defense involved there. I feel like the

344
00:22:22,680 --> 00:22:26,359
Clippers have been one of the toughest
teams to figure out because just in terms

345
00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:29,799
of pure talent, they should be
better than nineteen and twenty one, But

346
00:22:30,079 --> 00:22:33,920
the metrics don't really suggest that they're. Their simple rating system, which looks

347
00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:37,599
at strength of schedule and margin of
victory or defeat, they're negative, like

348
00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:42,440
they should not have a winning record, and I don't know. I have

349
00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:47,559
trouble figuring this one out because the
defense, like it passes the metrics test,

350
00:22:47,599 --> 00:22:52,160
it passes the eye test, but
the team just isn't winning games.

351
00:22:52,519 --> 00:22:55,079
To be fair, it doesn't even
pass some of the metrics tests, like

352
00:22:55,119 --> 00:22:57,920
they're not all of them. Basically, think since Thanksgiving they've been the worst

353
00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:02,440
defensive rebounding team in the league,
and yet that's still coincides with them during

354
00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:04,759
that's been having a top ten defense. So there's I totally get what you're

355
00:23:04,799 --> 00:23:08,119
saying about this team, is there
they'd be impossible to figure out anyway because

356
00:23:08,119 --> 00:23:11,480
we haven't been able to see them
at full strength. They didn't have a

357
00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:14,160
box got to start the season,
markus more seniors missed a ton of time.

358
00:23:14,799 --> 00:23:17,279
They've been relying on them, your
coffee, justice winslow. They've just

359
00:23:17,319 --> 00:23:19,960
been all over the place. But
even in the context of that, they're

360
00:23:21,039 --> 00:23:25,720
just tough to figure out. Are
you enjoying my Starbucks product placement throughout this

361
00:23:25,799 --> 00:23:29,000
too? It's okay, I have
a or I guess you can't see it

362
00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:32,519
now. I have a bunch of
amto energies behind me. Those those canisters.

363
00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:33,799
I need some caffeine, and so
I'm just shamelessly, you know,

364
00:23:33,839 --> 00:23:38,799
putting this on the screen. Maybe
they'll pay us, all right, maybe,

365
00:23:40,440 --> 00:23:42,039
yet out let's say I don't Starbucks, alredy up and pay us.

366
00:23:42,079 --> 00:23:45,960
Optimum Nutrition already up and pay us
product placement here? Do you want to

367
00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:52,359
take us to the Lakers? Lakers? My number is forty three. That

368
00:23:52,559 --> 00:23:56,240
is the percentage chance that five eight
yellow forecast gives the Lakers of making the

369
00:23:56,240 --> 00:24:00,880
playoffs. So as we record,
they're twenty one and nineteen. They're in

370
00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:06,119
sixth place in the West, and
it feels like they're starting to gain some

371
00:24:06,240 --> 00:24:12,279
positive momentum where Lebron James is just
playing phenomenal offensive basketball. Russell Westbrook's decision

372
00:24:12,279 --> 00:24:15,960
making has been a little bit better. They've kind of coalesced in Anthony Davis's

373
00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:19,599
absence. Some of the role players
are starting to contribute a little bit more.

374
00:24:21,079 --> 00:24:26,240
Are we that confident in them?
Yet? Their Their last win against

375
00:24:26,279 --> 00:24:30,799
a team that currently has a winning
record was their overtime victory against the Dallas

376
00:24:30,839 --> 00:24:33,839
Mavericks on December fifteenth. For the
season, they're five and nine against above

377
00:24:33,839 --> 00:24:38,759
five hundred teams, in sixteen and
ten against below five hundred teams per Basketball

378
00:24:38,799 --> 00:24:42,480
Reference, only the Bucks have played
an easier schedule and the Lakers SRS.

379
00:24:42,519 --> 00:24:47,480
Their Simple Rating System score is number
twenty one overall and number ten in the

380
00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:52,200
West. To me, like that
forty three percent chance feels fairly accurate given

381
00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:56,920
the strength of the middle class in
the Western Conference and the lack of confidence

382
00:24:56,920 --> 00:25:00,440
I have in the Lakers being able
to sustain this positive uptick, given the

383
00:25:00,519 --> 00:25:04,079
toll that it has to be taking
on a thirty seven year old Lebron James.

384
00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:10,640
So my question to you is over
or under forty three over? Yep.

385
00:25:11,279 --> 00:25:14,759
Yeah, I just we've just because
of the Lebron factor. There's that

386
00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:18,000
they've gotten better play from Russ having
Monk go off when he has, and

387
00:25:18,000 --> 00:25:21,480
they're gonna get once Anthony Davis comes
back better. And I keep coming back

388
00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:25,720
to the fact that they have annihilated
opponents when eighties at the five and Lebron

389
00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:27,400
and Westbrook around the court, and
now that they've sort of unlocked the Lebron

390
00:25:27,440 --> 00:25:32,920
at the five combinations, think about
how much better center play they get in

391
00:25:33,039 --> 00:25:37,559
some when it's Anthony Davis and Lebron
playing being able to stagger them that way.

392
00:25:37,799 --> 00:25:41,039
See I'm with you. I think
subjectively, I would probably put it

393
00:25:41,079 --> 00:25:44,480
at like fifty five to sixty percent. But this is not a lock.

394
00:25:45,039 --> 00:25:48,720
And I think there's some perception that
now that they're above five hundred and moving

395
00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:51,440
in the right direction, that,
yeah, like the Lakers are absolutely going

396
00:25:51,480 --> 00:25:53,599
to make the playoffs in the West. I wouldn't go that far yet,

397
00:25:53,839 --> 00:25:59,880
because they're one injury away. They're
one negative stretch away from not looking like

398
00:26:00,079 --> 00:26:04,440
that team at all. Yes,
I guess if that's how you frame it.

399
00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:07,359
But like so many teams now are
one injury away. You could say

400
00:26:07,359 --> 00:26:11,200
that about the Warriors, you could
say that about the Sun's Booker or Paul

401
00:26:11,279 --> 00:26:15,200
going out. But I'm not even
talking about the injury that you have in

402
00:26:15,279 --> 00:26:18,240
mind, which is a Lebron James
injury. You're to get an injury,

403
00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:22,240
Yeah, I think if there's a
Monk injury, if there's a Westbrook injury,

404
00:26:22,279 --> 00:26:25,880
if Kendrick Nunn can't return and they
still have such thin depth, if

405
00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:29,680
Mellow gets hurt, that this team
does not have the pieces to pick up

406
00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:33,279
the slack there. I guess.
I'm just I look at the rest of

407
00:26:33,319 --> 00:26:37,200
the West and it's very interesting,
but it's so unimpressive in the sense that

408
00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:41,240
the locks are Phoenis, Golden State
in Utah. I don't even know you

409
00:26:41,240 --> 00:26:44,240
can call Memphis a lock because they're
so good right now, like they are

410
00:26:44,279 --> 00:26:48,039
the least established of the Buns BarreR
locks. Who is the who are the

411
00:26:48,079 --> 00:26:51,160
locks? After that? Would you
run them the lock for a play in?

412
00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:53,039
You would call them a lock?
Yes? Absolutely? Okay, absolutely,

413
00:26:53,279 --> 00:26:57,319
all right, at least we're inching
closer there. Yeah, I mean,

414
00:26:57,359 --> 00:27:00,759
for sure. The reason I picked
that it is just because I need

415
00:27:00,799 --> 00:27:04,400
to push back a little bit against
the emerging narrative that the Lakers have figured

416
00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:08,079
it out and are suddenly a legitimate
threat in the West. Maybe they'll get

417
00:27:08,079 --> 00:27:11,480
there, but as it stands right
now, like again, they haven't beaten

418
00:27:11,799 --> 00:27:15,400
on above five hundred teams since December
fifteenth, for recording this on Sunday,

419
00:27:15,480 --> 00:27:19,920
January ninth. That's a long stretch. And granted, you can only play

420
00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:23,599
who you can play because they're on
your schedule, and they've won four or

421
00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:27,079
five games in a row at this
point, but they're beating up on subpar,

422
00:27:27,240 --> 00:27:32,599
injured teams right now, and I
just I think we need to push

423
00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:40,559
back against the idea that everything is
Hunky Dorry and Lakerland right now. That's

424
00:27:41,079 --> 00:27:45,000
I don't is anyone portraying it isn't
being hunky Dory? Feel like we're starting

425
00:27:45,039 --> 00:27:48,119
to see a little bit of it
on the Twitter verse. I don't.

426
00:27:48,119 --> 00:27:52,559
I guess we must have different,
very different timeline then, But I think

427
00:27:52,559 --> 00:27:56,400
it's fair to categorize them as a
team to be concerned about. I'm just

428
00:27:56,480 --> 00:27:59,960
less concerned than I was a few
weeks ago, which is saying something giving

429
00:28:00,039 --> 00:28:02,759
Well, I think I think that
number has risen significantly too. Like a

430
00:28:02,759 --> 00:28:06,720
few weeks ago it was down in
the twenties. I believe, Oh it

431
00:28:06,839 --> 00:28:07,680
was. I didn't even realize forgot
that load of them. Yeah, I

432
00:28:07,680 --> 00:28:12,319
think. So let's go to the
Memphis Grizzlies. My number is five.

433
00:28:14,079 --> 00:28:18,359
There are sixty five players in the
league who've used at least fifty IO possessions

434
00:28:18,359 --> 00:28:22,119
this season. John Moran is fifth
in points per possession in those situations.

435
00:28:22,400 --> 00:28:26,839
I dug a little bit deeper into
this too. Per b Ball Index,

436
00:28:26,039 --> 00:28:30,519
he is looking at only players who've
played five hundred and more minutes this year,

437
00:28:30,559 --> 00:28:33,599
which is a ship ton of players
if anyone cares. He is eighth

438
00:28:33,799 --> 00:28:37,759
in isolation impact per seventy five possessions
and looking at his scoring gravity, which

439
00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:45,880
bball Index uses playmaking ability calculated with
the same gravity data that they will reference

440
00:28:45,039 --> 00:28:51,039
in the perimeter shooting sections. So
mid range rim at even three points,

441
00:28:51,079 --> 00:28:53,480
so it's taking into all levels of
scoring. An account with the scoring gravity

442
00:28:53,519 --> 00:28:59,400
data is essentially what I'm getting at. He is seventh in scoring gravity impact.

443
00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:03,440
He's having a hell of an offensive
year, unlike anything we've seen from

444
00:29:03,519 --> 00:29:06,640
him, doing everything he's always done, plus other stuff. When you look

445
00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:07,759
at what he's been able to do
from the perimeter, specifically, he's a

446
00:29:07,799 --> 00:29:12,119
three point shooter and just doing everything
better even if he's done it already.

447
00:29:12,640 --> 00:29:17,799
This guy is fantastic. I think
he's If the Grizzlies keep this up,

448
00:29:18,200 --> 00:29:22,799
and this is John Morant for the
entire year, he's gonna crack top some

449
00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:26,720
of the top five. He's gonna
crack the top five of certain MVP ballots,

450
00:29:26,759 --> 00:29:29,400
and I can't say he's undeserving.
It would take an awful lot for

451
00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:33,799
him to get into the Yoki Steph
Joannis KD tier for me. But I

452
00:29:33,839 --> 00:29:37,240
don't think it's outside the realm of
possibility that John Morant finishes ahead of a

453
00:29:37,480 --> 00:29:41,359
DeMar Derozen in MVP voting this season, how many point guards would you take

454
00:29:41,440 --> 00:29:49,119
before John morand right now, Steph? Obviously Steph, I'd probably take Trey

455
00:29:51,920 --> 00:29:56,680
Chris Paul just for this season or
like just for this season. For the

456
00:29:56,720 --> 00:30:00,759
remainder of this season, you could, You don't. On one hand,

457
00:30:00,839 --> 00:30:03,759
I think right I think we're starting
to get to that point where it's like

458
00:30:03,799 --> 00:30:10,279
he's he's firmly in that top five
mix. Desmon Vane might have been stretching

459
00:30:10,279 --> 00:30:12,119
it a little bit when he said
that he's the best point guard in the

460
00:30:12,119 --> 00:30:15,759
world or should be in that conversation. I don't know that we're there yet

461
00:30:15,400 --> 00:30:19,400
or we're getting clips. Yeah,
I mean, he's not that far off,

462
00:30:19,519 --> 00:30:22,960
Like I don't know that. I
don't know that there's like a real

463
00:30:22,039 --> 00:30:27,119
case for him to be better than
Trey or Steph. And I think that's

464
00:30:27,160 --> 00:30:30,079
what makes it tough. But could
you make it consider it? Luca and

465
00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:36,279
Lebron point guards like a center,
so Lebron's officially out of that. Lebron's

466
00:30:36,319 --> 00:30:37,720
like a Lebron's point guard and a
center at the same time, though,

467
00:30:38,319 --> 00:30:41,839
Luca, Yeah, that would be
would be another fair one to note.

468
00:30:42,519 --> 00:30:45,000
I'm trying to think of it.
If we're forgetting anyone egregious, I don't

469
00:30:45,039 --> 00:30:52,240
don't. Fante Morris right, totally
forgot about That's my bad, frankiokinaka about

470
00:30:52,279 --> 00:30:56,839
him. But yeah, I mean
he's this season. Yeah he's because in

471
00:30:56,839 --> 00:31:00,839
a normal year you probably you probably
wonder about Dame. But definitely even though

472
00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:03,400
Dame has been mining games out right
now, they're probably gonna shut him down,

473
00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:07,519
so you certainly want them instead of
Dame. Yep, I think that's

474
00:31:07,559 --> 00:31:11,559
fair. My follow up stat for
Memphis, though, is one hundred five

475
00:31:11,599 --> 00:31:17,400
point seven seven one, and that
is Memphis's current score in NBA maps Rolling

476
00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:21,920
Team Rating, which looks at the
last twenty games and accounts for strength of

477
00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:25,440
schedule, a margin victory and all
that. That is the top score in

478
00:31:25,480 --> 00:31:32,519
the history of this franchise. That's
pretty good. It sounds like these Yeah,

479
00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:36,720
yep, I thought that was notable
enough that I had to include it

480
00:31:36,759 --> 00:31:40,240
here. I think I'll allow it. I don't like when you, you

481
00:31:40,279 --> 00:31:42,960
know, step in my territory.
You know how possessive I am and micro

482
00:31:44,079 --> 00:31:47,160
managerial that I am, But I'll
out at this time. Well, I'm

483
00:31:47,200 --> 00:31:51,000
gonna move on to the Timberwolves seen
just so you don't get too frustrated speaking

484
00:31:51,039 --> 00:31:53,000
of teams that I can't figure out. I'm so glad you had to take

485
00:31:53,039 --> 00:31:57,319
right right, and I might have
gone an easier route here too. My

486
00:31:57,680 --> 00:32:01,240
number is thirteen, and I wanted, much like with Yokich, I wanted

487
00:32:01,319 --> 00:32:07,759
to take a second just to appreciate
how fucking good Carl Anthony Towns is at

488
00:32:07,799 --> 00:32:10,720
basketball. I think with Anthony Edwards
ascending, he's drawn a little bit more

489
00:32:10,759 --> 00:32:15,119
attention. There's also just more attention
paid to the Wolves as a whole,

490
00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:20,200
because they're currently on pace to make
the playoffs for the second time since two

491
00:32:20,240 --> 00:32:24,440
thousand and four. But Towns,
you know, I've said it before and

492
00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:29,880
I'll say it again, like he
is a generational talent as an offensive center,

493
00:32:30,319 --> 00:32:34,920
and because he's not a defensive stalwart, because he's missed time, because

494
00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:38,400
he hasn't been on highly competitive teams, I just don't think he gets enough

495
00:32:38,440 --> 00:32:44,279
credit for being just this unbelievably talented. You can make a case that he

496
00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:47,240
is one of the count them on
one hand, best offensive centers of all

497
00:32:47,279 --> 00:32:52,559
time, just in terms of his
pure skill set. So right now,

498
00:32:52,599 --> 00:32:55,079
Towns is averaging twenty four point one
points, nine point three rebounds, and

499
00:32:55,200 --> 00:33:00,880
three point six three point six assists
while slashing fifty one point forty one point

500
00:33:00,920 --> 00:33:05,160
seven eighty two point seven. Where
thirteen comes into the equation is He is

501
00:33:05,200 --> 00:33:08,440
currently on pace to become the thirteenth
player in league history to average at least

502
00:33:08,480 --> 00:33:13,920
twenty four points while taking more than
five threes per game with a sixty plus

503
00:33:13,920 --> 00:33:17,400
tree shooting percentage. The twelve who
have already done it James Harden, Kevin

504
00:33:17,480 --> 00:33:22,759
Durant, Steph Curry, Kyrie Irving, Zach Lavine, Kawhi Leonard, Damian

505
00:33:22,799 --> 00:33:27,720
Lillard, Devin Booker, Lebron,
James Glenn, Rice Pagestroyakovich, and Boston

506
00:33:27,799 --> 00:33:30,759
Celtics Isaiah Thomas. Do you see
any other centers in that group? Like

507
00:33:30,799 --> 00:33:35,119
again, aside from like current season
Lebron, but this is twenty sixteen,

508
00:33:35,160 --> 00:33:40,160
seventeen Lebron who joined that group like
this is It is totally unprecedented for a

509
00:33:40,319 --> 00:33:45,519
center to be this good as a
volume scorer and floor stretcher. You know,

510
00:33:45,559 --> 00:33:50,200
we have guys like Kristops Porzingis who
takes threes but doesn't make them,

511
00:33:50,279 --> 00:33:53,440
Joel embiid follows and falls into that
category as well. Sorry who says that

512
00:33:53,599 --> 00:34:00,440
after saying there needs to be in
all star case, let me play both

513
00:34:00,440 --> 00:34:05,359
sides of the fence. Yoki you
know, Yokis plays out on the perimeter,

514
00:34:05,480 --> 00:34:07,599
draws attention to the perimeter, and
does take some threes, but not

515
00:34:07,719 --> 00:34:10,920
quite to the extent the Towns does. Just if you watch him play,

516
00:34:12,239 --> 00:34:15,199
the shot making ability that he has
as a catch and shoot guy, playing

517
00:34:15,199 --> 00:34:19,280
off the bounce, you know,
controlling offense from the top of the key.

518
00:34:20,000 --> 00:34:22,400
Players his size are not supposed to
be able to do that, to

519
00:34:22,440 --> 00:34:27,800
the point that they never have.
There has not been anybody like him before,

520
00:34:28,159 --> 00:34:31,320
and that gets glossed over too frequently. I don't. I think it's

521
00:34:31,360 --> 00:34:35,920
just because he's in the wilderness in
Minnesota, and maybe not so much this

522
00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:39,559
year, but they just whenever a
player doesn't make the playoffs for a long

523
00:34:39,559 --> 00:34:42,800
time and then the one year he
did, your Jimmy Butler, there we

524
00:34:43,199 --> 00:34:46,119
the assumption nationally, or when you
zoom out, or the laziest you know,

525
00:34:46,239 --> 00:34:50,760
presumption would be it's on his fault. It's like the Zaquavine stuff in

526
00:34:50,800 --> 00:34:54,960
Chicago for so long right there with
you, let's go to the Pelicans.

527
00:34:55,400 --> 00:34:59,920
I can't use my Herb Jones one
that I teased a few podcasts ago because

528
00:34:59,920 --> 00:35:00,719
I actually use it on the last
podcast, and like I said, I

529
00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:05,559
didn't want to double dip. So
if you want to know the bonkers herb

530
00:35:05,679 --> 00:35:08,960
Jones stat that I came up with, go to the last Mailbag podcast when

531
00:35:09,000 --> 00:35:13,559
you recorded at four am because you
couldn't sleep. Yeah, it was actually

532
00:35:13,639 --> 00:35:15,559
almost six in the morning. I
started research again like four am, and

533
00:35:15,559 --> 00:35:17,519
I was like, Okay, I'll
record this when I get up and just

534
00:35:17,559 --> 00:35:21,599
release it and say what the hell? I still couldn't like I was done.

535
00:35:21,599 --> 00:35:23,280
I was like, let me just
record this. So yeah, when

536
00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:27,079
you publish that, when I was
like, why didn't you ask me to

537
00:35:27,159 --> 00:35:30,199
join this one? And then I'm
glad that you didn't message me at what

538
00:35:30,199 --> 00:35:31,960
would have been like two am my
time. It probably would have been good

539
00:35:31,960 --> 00:35:35,559
if you were on it, just
because my voice sounded like gravel on gravel.

540
00:35:35,599 --> 00:35:37,920
I've been there because I was so
sick. I know you've been there,

541
00:35:37,920 --> 00:35:40,800
but like not like me talking for
fifty seven minutes straight or whatever.

542
00:35:40,800 --> 00:35:45,239
It was probably wasn't the best the
best experience for everybody, thanks for all

543
00:35:45,239 --> 00:35:47,880
those questions. Though I did,
I was in such a COVID written state,

544
00:35:49,360 --> 00:35:52,519
I really nothing. War was my
heart more than when I get dms

545
00:35:52,559 --> 00:35:55,239
from people with mail bad questions because
they're not responding to the solicitation, They're

546
00:35:55,280 --> 00:35:59,639
just asking. And I have like
I think four or five built up over

547
00:35:59,639 --> 00:36:01,000
the past week. I will get
We will get to them next time,

548
00:36:01,079 --> 00:36:04,440
I promise, and hopefully it won't
be a solo mail at that time.

549
00:36:04,480 --> 00:36:08,559
However, the Pelicans, my number
is one, can't be the number of

550
00:36:08,599 --> 00:36:14,719
games at Zion's played because that's still
zero. Yes, so they are first

551
00:36:14,760 --> 00:36:17,960
in the league in half court offensive
rebounding percentage, and I wanted to dig

552
00:36:17,960 --> 00:36:21,960
a little deeper into that number.
So Ever, since they started the season

553
00:36:22,000 --> 00:36:24,199
three and sixteen, as we're recording
this, you're actually over five hundred at

554
00:36:24,199 --> 00:36:30,000
eleven and nine, they are still
not surprisingly first in half court offensive rebounding

555
00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:35,039
percentage. During that stretch, they
are also first in the percentage of plays

556
00:36:35,039 --> 00:36:39,239
for which that accounts for their entire
offense. They are so reliant on cleaning

557
00:36:39,280 --> 00:36:43,360
up their own missus. They are
also during that time. As my light

558
00:36:43,440 --> 00:36:46,800
goes out here and I'll plump that
back and in a second. They are

559
00:36:46,880 --> 00:36:55,039
also first in the plays second chance
plays that they're generating permiss on offense.

560
00:36:55,599 --> 00:37:01,039
They are fifth in the total points
per one hundred misses that they have that

561
00:37:01,039 --> 00:37:07,280
they are generating. However, they're
not super efficient in those situations. Still,

562
00:37:07,719 --> 00:37:12,360
they have been above the break three
point shooting. When it's a second

563
00:37:12,440 --> 00:37:15,960
chance opportunity, they're shooting almost forty
percent. That's great, it's like fifth

564
00:37:15,960 --> 00:37:19,920
in the league. They're like bottom
ten and nearly every other thing. Their

565
00:37:19,960 --> 00:37:23,480
effective field goal percentage on the second
chance opportunities is not that high. Zion

566
00:37:23,519 --> 00:37:28,760
probably helps them a ton there with
his finishing and they'll have a higher percentage

567
00:37:28,800 --> 00:37:31,840
of their putbacks going in. But
I found it interesting that it's not surprising

568
00:37:31,880 --> 00:37:35,480
that a team that has you wantus
found and hunting is good at offensive rebounding.

569
00:37:35,519 --> 00:37:38,239
But they've been pretty reliant on it
even during this stretch of success.

570
00:37:38,639 --> 00:37:42,840
They are also second in the league, if you want to random stat here,

571
00:37:43,320 --> 00:37:47,280
in the percentage of offensive rebounds they
grab after missing a long mid range

572
00:37:47,599 --> 00:37:51,400
jumper. And so I guess while
having bread at Ingram on your team and

573
00:37:51,400 --> 00:37:53,079
even a Debonte Gram a little bit
like that helps you out, So it's

574
00:37:53,079 --> 00:37:57,840
a deep cut there. My immediate
follow up question, and I don't know

575
00:37:57,880 --> 00:38:01,719
if you have easy access to that, is what does their transition defense look

576
00:38:01,760 --> 00:38:06,519
like? Because in modern NBA basketball, we've seen that there's so much of

577
00:38:06,519 --> 00:38:10,360
a trade off between crashing the offensive
glass and getting back to play transition defense,

578
00:38:10,400 --> 00:38:15,440
and most coaches have moved away from
the former in favor of the ladder

579
00:38:15,519 --> 00:38:21,119
unless you have just a really ridiculously
talented offensive rebounder. So is that coming

580
00:38:21,199 --> 00:38:24,480
at the expensive transition defense or is
this a strength that isn't impacting the team

581
00:38:24,480 --> 00:38:29,119
elsewhere. When you're looking at their
transition defense, and this is during the

582
00:38:29,159 --> 00:38:32,159
stretch that they've been above five,
they actually the best transition defense in the

583
00:38:32,239 --> 00:38:36,800
league. So that's working nicely.
Third, when you break it down to

584
00:38:36,880 --> 00:38:39,840
points per play, that's that's amazing, Like that's that is not supposed to

585
00:38:39,840 --> 00:38:45,440
happen. That could not be more
anomalous. They are twenty first in defense

586
00:38:45,480 --> 00:38:49,760
overhaul though during this stretch, so
that part's not great, but it's it's

587
00:38:49,760 --> 00:38:52,800
New Orleans, Like we couldn't have
expected too many positives here. They've been

588
00:38:52,880 --> 00:38:57,880
quietly like just Josh Smart in Ingram's
passing. DeVante Graham has hit some some

589
00:38:57,920 --> 00:39:00,719
big shots, shown his found tunises
well when he was in the lineup.

590
00:39:00,880 --> 00:39:01,840
I don't even know if he's returning
again. The league is all over the

591
00:39:01,840 --> 00:39:06,599
place. It's so hard. No
one should feel bad for me or you.

592
00:39:07,159 --> 00:39:09,320
It's just so hard to cover the
league at a league wide scale right

593
00:39:09,360 --> 00:39:15,639
now. It's just it's so difficult. I think I can't remember if it

594
00:39:15,719 --> 00:39:19,440
was you and friend of the podcast, Jacob barn or just Jacob that I

595
00:39:19,519 --> 00:39:22,559
was kind of griping about this too. But usually at this point in the

596
00:39:22,599 --> 00:39:27,760
season, with all the different NBA
math graphics that I produce on a daily

597
00:39:27,800 --> 00:39:30,440
and weekly basis, like I have
most of the faces cut out to make

598
00:39:30,480 --> 00:39:35,400
those. But this season it's like
every morning it's like, oh, gotta

599
00:39:35,440 --> 00:39:38,280
find headshots for six more players who
made their season debuts this time around,

600
00:39:38,320 --> 00:39:43,480
Like I have them prepped for Klay
Thompson and guys we expect to make their

601
00:39:43,519 --> 00:39:45,800
debuts. But when we're just signing
players off the streets, it's like,

602
00:39:46,039 --> 00:39:51,079
seriously, like another morning where I
have to like grab a different computer and

603
00:39:51,119 --> 00:39:53,840
cut those out and email them to
myselves and throw them into tableau. It's

604
00:39:53,880 --> 00:39:58,920
just talking, I mean, talk
about an insignificant complaint, but it has

605
00:39:58,920 --> 00:40:01,639
made my life harder too. Hopefully
this settles down because of what that says

606
00:40:01,760 --> 00:40:07,000
also about the state of COVID in
the league will be Yeah, and look,

607
00:40:07,000 --> 00:40:08,079
shout out to the guys who have
kept the league up and running by

608
00:40:08,079 --> 00:40:10,559
signing all these ten day contracts.
I'm not a big fan of saying,

609
00:40:10,559 --> 00:40:14,840
oh, they're getting this opportunity,
willn't otherwise have. It's true, but

610
00:40:14,880 --> 00:40:21,079
you're also just using glorified temp workers
to meet your more lucrative bottom line that

611
00:40:21,119 --> 00:40:23,440
they're not necessary. They're not it's
not even necessarily. They're not sharing in

612
00:40:23,440 --> 00:40:27,920
to the extent that all these players
under guaranteed contracts are. And yes,

613
00:40:28,000 --> 00:40:34,320
someone like Land Stevenson, very questionable, if terrible human being, still was

614
00:40:34,360 --> 00:40:37,039
able to earn a permanent contract with
the Pacers. Yeah, there are situations

615
00:40:37,079 --> 00:40:39,159
like that. It looks like West
Matthews wind up doing the same with Milwaukee,

616
00:40:39,199 --> 00:40:42,400
but he didn't even signed. I
think they just signed do non guarantee

617
00:40:42,400 --> 00:40:45,679
deal at one point. Still,
my whole point is just that shout out

618
00:40:45,760 --> 00:40:49,159
to those guys they've kept the league
running. As Chris Paul said, and

619
00:40:49,159 --> 00:40:54,199
that's not an overstatement. Oklahoma City
Thunder my number is nine. So I

620
00:40:54,199 --> 00:40:59,599
looked at two different like deep dive
passing metrics. Here, one is potential

621
00:40:59,599 --> 00:41:04,199
assists per thirty six minutes and the
other is field goal percentage on passes that

622
00:41:04,239 --> 00:41:08,440
would lead to assists. So I'm
basically just calculating that by looking at actual

623
00:41:08,480 --> 00:41:15,159
assists versus potential assists, because by
definition, potential assists are are passes that

624
00:41:15,199 --> 00:41:16,440
would have led to assists had the
shop and made. So if you look

625
00:41:16,440 --> 00:41:20,400
at the actual made shots versus the
potential made ones, there's your field goal

626
00:41:20,400 --> 00:41:22,960
percentage on passes that would lead to
assists. So among the eighty players who

627
00:41:22,960 --> 00:41:28,000
have played at least five hundred minutes
and recorded at least two hundred potential assists,

628
00:41:28,440 --> 00:41:31,519
Josh Giddy ranks twenty first and potential
assists for thirty six minutes at thirteen

629
00:41:31,559 --> 00:41:36,719
point seven and fifteenth in field goal
percentage on passes that would lead to assists

630
00:41:36,760 --> 00:41:39,880
fifty four point six percent. And
that last one is particularly impressive because he's

631
00:41:39,920 --> 00:41:45,400
playing for a Thunder team that ranks
dead last in field goal percentage. So

632
00:41:45,559 --> 00:41:49,800
like if I had had the time
to dive even deeper, like the relative

633
00:41:49,840 --> 00:41:52,360
boost that his passing is providing is
even more substantial. But even with that

634
00:41:52,440 --> 00:41:55,480
raw number, he's at number fifteen, the only other players in the top

635
00:41:55,519 --> 00:42:00,639
twenty five for both of those stats. There are eight others hence nine being

636
00:42:00,639 --> 00:42:04,199
the stat here, Chris Paul,
Trey Young, Dejante Murray, Russell Westbrook,

637
00:42:04,280 --> 00:42:07,159
LaMelo Ball, Nikola Yokich, John
Morant, and Damian Lillard. Josh

638
00:42:07,239 --> 00:42:10,679
Giddy is with those eight players in
that class. Those are some great names

639
00:42:10,719 --> 00:42:15,360
to be compared with. He has
had a phenomenal rookie season. We've gotten

640
00:42:15,360 --> 00:42:19,400
to celebrate the fact that he became
the youngest player in league history to have

641
00:42:19,400 --> 00:42:22,119
a triple double, but he has
burst onto the scene as this potential centerpiece

642
00:42:22,239 --> 00:42:27,679
for the Thunder. He is that
good as a passer, the reads that

643
00:42:27,719 --> 00:42:31,360
he makes, the split second decisions
that he makes, it already feels like

644
00:42:31,440 --> 00:42:35,960
the game has slowed down, which
doesn't typically happen for point guards in the

645
00:42:36,079 --> 00:42:39,079
NBA, even if they have international
experience, until their second or third season.

646
00:42:39,400 --> 00:42:43,159
And it makes me wonder just how
good his passing is going to be

647
00:42:43,159 --> 00:42:45,159
two years from now. I think
a lot of it's going to rest on

648
00:42:45,519 --> 00:42:49,519
can he elevate his own offensive aggression, because I think that's going to be

649
00:42:49,519 --> 00:42:52,960
absorted in leveraging those Did you happen
to look at how many of those potential

650
00:42:52,960 --> 00:42:55,920
assists his team is actually converting and
like how that is? Like, what

651
00:42:55,960 --> 00:42:59,960
are they shooting off of Josh Giddy
passes this season? It's not something I've

652
00:43:00,039 --> 00:43:01,360
Yeah, that's that's the field goal
percentage on the passes that would lead to

653
00:43:01,360 --> 00:43:06,599
assess they're shooting fifty six percent on
that. So that's fifteenth among the qualified

654
00:43:06,599 --> 00:43:09,239
players, which is again with a
team that is dead last in field goal

655
00:43:09,320 --> 00:43:15,000
percentage in general. Yeah, that's
just super impressive. Then, just who

656
00:43:15,039 --> 00:43:17,079
have underscored what you said? I
have a follow up? Okay, see

657
00:43:17,119 --> 00:43:21,480
sad that's not really related to that, but it's something I stumbled upon in

658
00:43:21,559 --> 00:43:25,360
my research for this pod. Darius
Baisley is second. Maybe I'm misremembering.

659
00:43:25,360 --> 00:43:30,639
He's definitely the top five in blocked
three point shots. Not his that are

660
00:43:30,639 --> 00:43:32,599
getting blocked, but three point shots
that he has blocked. I am marginally

661
00:43:32,639 --> 00:43:37,119
surprised that he is still on the
roster. He's been too good defensively to

662
00:43:37,119 --> 00:43:42,519
get off the roster and that's not
even because so bad offensively though, you're

663
00:43:42,840 --> 00:43:45,079
what is you? Yeah? What
do you want poku to get some All

664
00:43:45,119 --> 00:43:49,039
Star votes? Though still I was
like, okay, moving, moving right

665
00:43:49,079 --> 00:43:52,280
along to Phoenix the one to I'm
mostly just I'm mostly disappointed that I spent

666
00:43:52,320 --> 00:43:57,920
too much draft capital on Darius Baisley
in a fantasy league. Yeah, because

667
00:43:57,960 --> 00:44:01,239
of that, you need checked those
emotions at the door fair enough. The

668
00:44:01,239 --> 00:44:05,400
Phoenix Suns, my number is There
are a bunch of different ways I go

669
00:44:05,440 --> 00:44:07,320
with this, but my number is
one for them. Again, after using

670
00:44:07,360 --> 00:44:13,039
this for the Pelicans, among every
player in the league who's attempting at least

671
00:44:13,079 --> 00:44:17,599
three off the dribble three pointers per
game, Devin Booker ranks first in his

672
00:44:17,679 --> 00:44:22,119
conversion rate on those shots forty two
point one percent. That is by far

673
00:44:22,199 --> 00:44:24,880
and away a career high for him. His previous career high was thirty six

674
00:44:24,880 --> 00:44:29,280
point four percent in two seventeen twenty
eighteen. That also happens to be the

675
00:44:29,280 --> 00:44:32,599
only other time that he shot better
than thirty three point eight percent on off

676
00:44:32,599 --> 00:44:36,760
the dribble threes in a season.
This seems sort of basic for Phoenix,

677
00:44:36,760 --> 00:44:38,719
but I think a lot of stuff
is Some people focus on their shot profile.

678
00:44:38,760 --> 00:44:40,480
We even talked about they don't get
to the rim, but they don't.

679
00:44:40,480 --> 00:44:43,880
They just don't need to, at
least not during the regular season.

680
00:44:45,039 --> 00:44:50,119
Cam Johnson has been spectacular over the
past few weeks and the esthetics on his

681
00:44:50,199 --> 00:44:53,599
jumper are an affords as so just
go watch him take Kim Johnson take jumpers,

682
00:44:53,639 --> 00:44:57,639
make or miss. I'm telling you
it's gonna it's gonna rev your engine.

683
00:44:58,239 --> 00:45:00,159
I wanted to go with this because
I think that that efficiency is such

684
00:45:00,159 --> 00:45:02,480
a It's one of the reasons why
you don't need to get to the room

685
00:45:02,480 --> 00:45:07,280
if your Phoenix, because you always
had the threat of Devin Booker off the

686
00:45:07,360 --> 00:45:10,519
dribble to leverage. But he's been
hitting his three's overall, looking at catch

687
00:45:10,559 --> 00:45:15,199
and shoot, just as efficiency on
threes this year has been such a huge

688
00:45:15,239 --> 00:45:17,760
deal. But you're gonna shoot forty
two point one percent on He has almost

689
00:45:17,760 --> 00:45:22,199
one hundred off the dribble three pointers
so far this season. That's going to

690
00:45:22,280 --> 00:45:27,119
be monstrous for them when you're looking
at their their postseason trajectory. Should they

691
00:45:27,119 --> 00:45:30,440
not be able to acquire someone who
helps add pressure to the rim, just

692
00:45:30,480 --> 00:45:34,039
a version of Devin Booker even when
you've watched him play, I would hazard

693
00:45:34,039 --> 00:45:37,039
that he's just one of those guys
you would estimate his career three point percentage

694
00:45:37,079 --> 00:45:40,679
or any given with the exception of
this year, any given single season three

695
00:45:40,679 --> 00:45:45,119
point percentage, you're going to estimate
it as being much higher than it actually

696
00:45:45,280 --> 00:45:49,199
was because the shot, the aesthetics
on his shot just look so good too,

697
00:45:49,280 --> 00:45:52,719
and to see it come together so
nicely for him this season, have

698
00:45:52,920 --> 00:45:55,719
now just having off the dribble three
pointer in his arsenal to be able to

699
00:45:55,800 --> 00:45:59,800
hit the pull up even if they're
not the most complicated off the dribble jumpers.

700
00:46:00,039 --> 00:46:02,000
Sometimes they are, sometimes they aren't. After watching footage on them.

701
00:46:02,119 --> 00:46:07,199
Devin Booker spectacular and he's added this
sort of layer to his offensive game,

702
00:46:07,679 --> 00:46:10,519
and he deserves to be an All
Star and probably would make my All NBA

703
00:46:10,599 --> 00:46:15,199
ballot At this point, I believe
how many All Stars is Phoenix going to

704
00:46:15,199 --> 00:46:17,519
have? Two? I don't really
know where your third one is coming from

705
00:46:17,559 --> 00:46:21,519
me unless you think eight and is
going to Cray. I mean, if

706
00:46:21,519 --> 00:46:23,800
you're giving a spot to Porzingis,
then you're not though. That's why make

707
00:46:23,840 --> 00:46:29,920
that clear. No one should be
giving a spot to Christaps Porzingis, So

708
00:46:30,000 --> 00:46:31,639
you still think too though you don't
think it, and they'll get in.

709
00:46:32,519 --> 00:46:36,559
I'd be pretty shocked if I guess. I'm trying to think of just the

710
00:46:36,599 --> 00:46:39,760
front court players that would be Quis
out, Anthony Davis is out, when

711
00:46:39,800 --> 00:46:44,760
Paul George have played enough, I
don't think it's going to be close.

712
00:46:44,880 --> 00:46:49,239
I could see him getting in as
like an injury or COVID replacement. No,

713
00:46:49,440 --> 00:46:52,199
enough, we get No, I'm
not doing injury or COVID replacement right

714
00:46:52,239 --> 00:46:54,039
now. Is he making the first
iteration of the All Star ballot? Is?

715
00:46:54,039 --> 00:46:57,760
Probably not? Probably not. But
I mean, you know, I've

716
00:46:57,760 --> 00:47:00,079
talked about this a b jillion times
how I want the star rosters to expand.

717
00:47:00,119 --> 00:47:04,280
So I like giving credit to the
guys who might eventually get in,

718
00:47:04,639 --> 00:47:07,760
even if they're not featured on that
first selection. Are you gonna pick Mellow

719
00:47:07,760 --> 00:47:09,320
in case they do a thing where
they give you like the you know,

720
00:47:09,440 --> 00:47:14,480
Ada boy career achievement spot. I
hope not. I hate that so that

721
00:47:14,599 --> 00:47:19,440
one year against I was so against
that. It's not it's not a legacy.

722
00:47:19,800 --> 00:47:22,519
It shouldn't be a legacy achievement.
It's supposed to be this season.

723
00:47:23,559 --> 00:47:29,440
Yes, but you're also working outside
the confines of the roster count at the

724
00:47:29,480 --> 00:47:36,920
moment, so absolutely the strictures within
which you work remain puzzling and very inconsistent.

725
00:47:37,880 --> 00:47:39,800
I'll take it. Do you want
to take Speaking of taking, do

726
00:47:39,800 --> 00:47:44,119
you want to take us to the
Portland Trailblazers. Yeah, Portland Trailblazers.

727
00:47:44,119 --> 00:47:47,440
My number is fifty five point eight. That is the league worst effective field

728
00:47:47,440 --> 00:47:52,519
goal percentage allowed by the Portland Trailblazers. This team's defensive rebounding has been pretty

729
00:47:52,559 --> 00:47:55,920
good. They fell too frequently their
number twenty one and free throws per field

730
00:47:55,920 --> 00:48:00,639
goal attempt. They can't stop players
from scoring, hence that lead worst affective

731
00:48:00,639 --> 00:48:05,519
field goal percentage. They rarely first
forced turnovers their number twenty an opponent turnover

732
00:48:05,559 --> 00:48:09,280
percentage. It's basically a continuation and
in some ways an amplification of last year's

733
00:48:09,320 --> 00:48:15,800
defensive struggles, which wasn't supposed to
happen given the slight personnel changes and the

734
00:48:15,840 --> 00:48:21,159
coaching changes to Chauncey Billups. This
team is just a defensive disaster and it's

735
00:48:21,239 --> 00:48:25,000
not going to get any better anytime
soon. And I think it's worth highlighting

736
00:48:25,519 --> 00:48:31,639
just how bad it's been particularly in
that we cannot possibly get the right players

737
00:48:31,679 --> 00:48:37,360
to take contested shots department. I
think the other thing too, and this

738
00:48:37,440 --> 00:48:40,360
is from Christian Narshu also, he
works for a b ball in next I've

739
00:48:40,400 --> 00:48:44,599
sighted them a few times now on
this pod. The Blazers have the most

740
00:48:44,639 --> 00:48:47,159
aggressive pick and roll defensive coverage in
the league. The issue with that is

741
00:48:47,199 --> 00:48:51,519
they do not have the personnel to
have that type of pick and roll coverage,

742
00:48:51,519 --> 00:48:53,400
which is why when Terry stof there, you would predominantly see them play

743
00:48:53,480 --> 00:48:59,400
drop with Nurkicch and Nurkitch is really
suffering the brunt of that. There are

744
00:48:59,800 --> 00:49:04,599
are a hundred or excuse me,
there are seventy players who've contested at least

745
00:49:04,599 --> 00:49:07,079
one hundred and ten shots at the
rim this season. He has one of

746
00:49:07,079 --> 00:49:13,119
the five worst marks allowed at the
basket seventy point four percent on the season.

747
00:49:13,199 --> 00:49:15,360
The only players with worst marks allowed, none of them are bigs or

748
00:49:15,400 --> 00:49:21,159
primary considered primary rim protectors. Harrison
Barnes and Anti Edwards James Harden are the

749
00:49:21,239 --> 00:49:25,320
only players in front of him.
I've statistically been a better rim protector than

750
00:49:25,400 --> 00:49:30,480
use of marriage this season. That's
that's less than ideal. I would say,

751
00:49:30,519 --> 00:49:34,480
but it's also in no way surprising
because this team just doesn't have a

752
00:49:34,519 --> 00:49:37,440
defensive identity and whatever it tries to
do, it doesn't have the personnel to

753
00:49:37,480 --> 00:49:40,719
do. It's yeah, they and
it's it's it's not funny. But I

754
00:49:40,760 --> 00:49:46,159
will say I like the acquisitions of
Norman Powell, Larry Nance Jr. Robert

755
00:49:46,199 --> 00:49:50,840
Covington's separately. I mentioned this on
our last podcast, though I don't want

756
00:49:50,880 --> 00:49:52,199
to spend a ton of time on
it. When you look back at a

757
00:49:52,199 --> 00:49:57,239
lot of the stuff that Neil O'Shea
did, the failure to make the actual

758
00:49:57,480 --> 00:50:00,719
blockbuster move is what feels like it
did this or of the Blazers in because

759
00:50:00,760 --> 00:50:04,599
even when they got to the conference
finals, knew they weren't going to get

760
00:50:04,639 --> 00:50:07,760
out of there. It was very
clearly a cap on a CJ. Dame

761
00:50:08,320 --> 00:50:12,599
backcourt being the folcram of everything you
do. If you weren't able to get

762
00:50:12,679 --> 00:50:17,800
that third star at the wings or
a real star big man without giving up

763
00:50:17,800 --> 00:50:22,400
CJ. McCom, you probably should
have looked much sooner into moving CJ.

764
00:50:22,559 --> 00:50:25,119
McCollum. It's the callous view.
And the Blazers assembled a lot of good

765
00:50:25,119 --> 00:50:29,480
teams still, but that is going
to end up being the fatal flaw of

766
00:50:29,480 --> 00:50:31,239
the Damian Lillard. Ever, I
think it's pretty clear. I'm right there

767
00:50:31,280 --> 00:50:35,920
with you. I think the idea
was always that if they were going to

768
00:50:35,960 --> 00:50:38,159
make a run, it was going
to be because Dame went nuclear, which

769
00:50:38,159 --> 00:50:45,199
he has done for significant stretches in
key situations, but the idea of him

770
00:50:45,199 --> 00:50:50,880
doing that for every single round of
the playoffs was always unrealistic. The Sacramento

771
00:50:50,960 --> 00:50:54,199
Kings, so I looked at I
wanted to. I think people have been

772
00:50:54,239 --> 00:50:58,079
too low on d Aaron Fox this
season. He's not been great, especially

773
00:50:58,079 --> 00:51:00,079
on defense, and they've also changed
his offensive role at bit. But I

774
00:51:00,079 --> 00:51:05,280
saw going around Twitter the other day
that Nick Sands wouldn't trade Emmanuel quickly for

775
00:51:05,360 --> 00:51:08,280
Daron Fox, which was just kind
of like a GTFO moment for me.

776
00:51:08,559 --> 00:51:14,079
So I looked at Biball Indexes Finishing
Score, which seeks This is further website

777
00:51:14,079 --> 00:51:16,559
which seeks to capture how well a
player scores at the rim on the attempts

778
00:51:16,559 --> 00:51:22,039
they have once there, and doing
so while capturing and adjusting for variables that

779
00:51:22,079 --> 00:51:25,320
may impact performance such as spacing if
they were creating their own shot, the

780
00:51:25,320 --> 00:51:31,599
location of shots, etc. Etc. Daron Fox is third in Bball Index's

781
00:51:31,599 --> 00:51:36,360
overall finishing score. He's also this
is among everyone who's played at least five

782
00:51:36,400 --> 00:51:42,960
hundred minutes. He's also he also
has the lowest shot quality at the rim

783
00:51:43,079 --> 00:51:46,239
of anyone within that category. Some
of that seems self inflicted when you look

784
00:51:46,239 --> 00:51:50,360
at his takeoff points, his decision
making. But the fact that he can

785
00:51:50,360 --> 00:51:54,519
still have such a high finishing score
while generating such a low quality looks at

786
00:51:54,559 --> 00:51:58,039
the rim. I think it's a
testament to what happens when he does put

787
00:51:58,039 --> 00:52:00,280
pressure on the basket. There are
things to littlebout with his game. His

788
00:52:00,320 --> 00:52:04,679
assist percentage has never been lower on
drives, YadA, YadA, YadA.

789
00:52:04,719 --> 00:52:07,039
He's still shooting sixty four percent at
the rim this season. I still think

790
00:52:07,119 --> 00:52:09,760
this is someone who is a fringe
All Star. I wouldn't put him in

791
00:52:09,760 --> 00:52:16,480
the All Star conversation this year,
but maybe if they expanned the rosters to

792
00:52:16,760 --> 00:52:21,440
twenty five players, Darren Fox would
make it. But when you're just looking

793
00:52:21,440 --> 00:52:23,239
at the numbers he's putting up and
still being able to finish like this,

794
00:52:23,320 --> 00:52:28,480
If this is his down year,
that's a really good basketball player. I

795
00:52:28,519 --> 00:52:30,320
am curious see what the Kings do
from here, and we do need to

796
00:52:30,320 --> 00:52:34,440
see more from just Daron Fox overall. He's not hitting the step back jumpers

797
00:52:34,440 --> 00:52:37,400
at his high clip as he was
last season. A shot selection from the

798
00:52:37,400 --> 00:52:40,159
perimeter just remains super iffy, and
they it seems like Sarcomon was trying to

799
00:52:40,199 --> 00:52:44,760
streamline his role where Tyrese Haliburton is
going to be the engine a lot of

800
00:52:44,760 --> 00:52:46,800
the time, trying to play make
and that can be a problem because Daron

801
00:52:46,840 --> 00:52:52,199
Fox is still not this threat off
the ball, but he remains a pretty

802
00:52:52,199 --> 00:52:54,920
good, too awesome finisher. I'm
actually a little surprised you didn't go to

803
00:52:54,960 --> 00:52:59,559
the Tyrese Haliburton direction. That's what
I was expecting, given how much we

804
00:52:59,639 --> 00:53:05,840
both loved him going into last year's
draft and what he's done during the most

805
00:53:05,920 --> 00:53:09,000
recent portion of this season, where
he went from as a rookie being that

806
00:53:09,039 --> 00:53:15,679
guy who could capably fill every single
kind of role for the Sacramento Kings,

807
00:53:15,920 --> 00:53:17,599
as you just put it, you
know, starting to become part of the

808
00:53:17,639 --> 00:53:22,159
engine of the Kings, and in
recent weeks taking over more as a featured

809
00:53:22,199 --> 00:53:25,079
score and being really efficient while doing
so. The jump that he's already making

810
00:53:25,119 --> 00:53:29,719
a year two is so substantial that
I was just surprised you went the Fox

811
00:53:29,840 --> 00:53:32,639
route, even if he does deserve
that love. I just I feel like

812
00:53:32,840 --> 00:53:37,239
you gave Tyrius Alibert and more responsibility
and he's responding, he's been great.

813
00:53:37,400 --> 00:53:40,119
It's just I guess me. I
guess I was past the point of people

814
00:53:40,159 --> 00:53:45,840
thinking that Tyris Haliburton wasn't like a
spectacular pick at number twelve, But you

815
00:53:45,920 --> 00:53:47,440
go, I could have went with
Rashaun Holmes flip shots, just because that

816
00:53:47,480 --> 00:53:52,280
percentage remains absurdly high, even though
everyone knows that that's what he's good at.

817
00:53:52,719 --> 00:53:54,639
Maybe he just like highlighted his contract
or something and like how cheap it

818
00:53:54,760 --> 00:53:59,239
was, something that hasn't ever been
and then said this would have been original,

819
00:53:59,280 --> 00:54:00,679
but said that the Charlot Horne I
should have been fined in draft pick

820
00:54:00,840 --> 00:54:05,320
for allowing him to sign that contract
with absolutely never said that before, not

821
00:54:05,480 --> 00:54:08,000
once on this podcast. Right there
with you, san Antonio Spurs, my

822
00:54:08,079 --> 00:54:13,880
number is five. That is Dejante
Murray's jersey number. And I just want

823
00:54:13,880 --> 00:54:16,679
to give him some love here because
I think the Spurs overall struggles have sort

824
00:54:16,719 --> 00:54:21,599
of masked the attention that he should
be getting for the improvement he's made this

825
00:54:21,679 --> 00:54:23,800
year. He's averaging eighteen point two
points, eight point three rebounds, eight

826
00:54:23,840 --> 00:54:28,639
point nine assists, just two point
five turnovers per game, albeit without the

827
00:54:28,639 --> 00:54:34,119
most efficient shooting. According to the
NBA math rpr MVP predictor, which factors

828
00:54:34,199 --> 00:54:37,039
in the lack of team success,
Murray is at number thirty this season.

829
00:54:37,559 --> 00:54:40,920
If the All Stars were chosen by
this metric alone, which they shouldn't be,

830
00:54:42,159 --> 00:54:45,239
and they expanded the roster, and
they expanded the roster, but even

831
00:54:45,239 --> 00:54:47,559
without a roster expansion, he would
be the first injury replacement in the Western

832
00:54:47,559 --> 00:54:52,199
Conference, which I think puts into
I had that. I swear I had

833
00:54:52,199 --> 00:54:58,280
that ritching down even before our conversations. That was so unbelievably on breath,

834
00:54:59,599 --> 00:55:01,760
Go Ahead. There's a theme for
this podcast, No No, But I

835
00:55:01,800 --> 00:55:06,320
think like just the fact that he's
at number thirty with the team's success or

836
00:55:06,360 --> 00:55:08,480
lack there of working against him,
the fact that he would be the first

837
00:55:08,519 --> 00:55:14,280
injury replacement in the Western Conference by
this metric, it speaks volumes about how

838
00:55:14,360 --> 00:55:17,239
much his stock should be rising,
Like this is a guy who I think

839
00:55:17,679 --> 00:55:22,360
should at least be in the mix
for one of the thirty best players in

840
00:55:22,440 --> 00:55:27,519
basketball right now. He's not going
to feature in that conversation as much because

841
00:55:27,800 --> 00:55:31,519
the Spurs haven't been able to excel. They've had so many different lineup combinations,

842
00:55:31,559 --> 00:55:37,679
probably more so than even the team's
most affected by the pandemic. As

843
00:55:37,719 --> 00:55:40,840
they try to bring in new younger
players try to figure out what they have,

844
00:55:40,960 --> 00:55:46,440
they go to work without like a
truly established veteran star, and he's

845
00:55:46,480 --> 00:55:52,039
becoming that guy where the game has
clearly slowed down for him. The passing

846
00:55:52,119 --> 00:55:55,960
strides that he's made in the half
court set in particular are phenomenal. He

847
00:55:57,079 --> 00:56:01,920
just it feels like he has a
better understanding of how to be the engine

848
00:56:01,960 --> 00:56:07,519
that makes the Spurs offense at least
attempt to go. He's been great this

849
00:56:07,599 --> 00:56:09,920
season. I think he could still
harp on. He probably could be more

850
00:56:09,920 --> 00:56:15,760
efficient as a scorer, but to
have the just that level to his game,

851
00:56:15,760 --> 00:56:17,519
and I don't think at this point
we just have to figure he'll never

852
00:56:17,559 --> 00:56:22,360
be that guy. Maybe it's different, but I sort of wonder if he

853
00:56:22,360 --> 00:56:28,039
would be a lot better if he
got to play a role independent of Derek

854
00:56:28,079 --> 00:56:31,559
White totally. And I'm just those
two players just seem like there's too much

855
00:56:32,039 --> 00:56:37,880
overlap in both their skills, like
their strengths and their weaknesses, that they

856
00:56:37,960 --> 00:56:42,719
might be better off in higher not
just having their minutes staggered, but just

857
00:56:42,800 --> 00:56:45,920
untethered one another complete name. We
saw San Antonio basically try and do that

858
00:56:45,039 --> 00:56:49,960
until this season, which is why
I think that maybe Derek White should be

859
00:56:50,000 --> 00:56:52,480
on the chopping box, not just
because I want there to be an active

860
00:56:52,519 --> 00:56:55,440
trade deadline going into this season.
You and I had an argument about which

861
00:56:55,480 --> 00:57:00,159
team had the fewest future All Stars
on the roster, and the Spurs were

862
00:57:00,199 --> 00:57:04,840
my pick, like even beyond the
Orlando Magic, the Houston Rockets, the

863
00:57:04,840 --> 00:57:08,119
Oklahoma City Thunder, because I really
didn't think that anyone on this roster had

864
00:57:08,159 --> 00:57:12,440
that kind of upside, like when
you're leading candidates where Derek White, john

865
00:57:12,440 --> 00:57:16,400
Ty Murray, and Kelton Johnson.
That's enough said right there. But I

866
00:57:16,400 --> 00:57:22,199
do think that Murray has worked himself
into that conversation where the Spurs pretty clearly

867
00:57:22,239 --> 00:57:27,639
have one guy who most likely will
represent the Western Conference at some point in

868
00:57:27,719 --> 00:57:30,800
his career. My follow up stat
for the Spurs is up teenth, and

869
00:57:30,880 --> 00:57:35,559
that is the amount of wiggle that
there is in Josh Primo's game when he

870
00:57:35,639 --> 00:57:38,880
has the ball in his hands.
So you've got a time's infinity and an

871
00:57:38,960 --> 00:57:43,719
upteenth in there, and I like
the numbers you're thrown out here. I

872
00:57:43,719 --> 00:57:47,079
appreciate that my numbers some advanced mathematics. This one's gonna be super advanced,

873
00:57:47,119 --> 00:57:51,039
this number. So trying to stay
with me for the Jazz. The Utah

874
00:57:51,079 --> 00:57:54,320
Jazz finish us off with this podcast. Twenty three. That is Royce O'Neil's

875
00:57:54,400 --> 00:58:00,760
jersey number. They back to back
jersey numbers. They remained so reliant on

876
00:58:01,159 --> 00:58:07,480
him defensively going up against the opposition's
best player that at this point it's almost

877
00:58:07,719 --> 00:58:12,719
criminal that that's how reliant they are
on him. So he guards the number

878
00:58:12,719 --> 00:58:15,800
one option on the other team according
to the usage rate thirty two point three

879
00:58:15,840 --> 00:58:21,440
percent of the time. The next
player on the Jazz that ranked second in

880
00:58:21,440 --> 00:58:23,960
this metric is Joe Ingles at twenty
point four. Makes sense him coming off

881
00:58:23,960 --> 00:58:29,519
the bench. Whatever that gap,
though nearly a twelve percentage point gap,

882
00:58:29,880 --> 00:58:32,880
is the third largest in the NBA
from the player on a team that spends

883
00:58:32,880 --> 00:58:37,320
the most time guarding the number one
option to the second to the person that

884
00:58:37,360 --> 00:58:39,800
spends the second most time the only
players in front of him? Can you

885
00:58:39,880 --> 00:58:44,280
guess either one of him? Absolutely
not, I think you could guess one

886
00:58:44,280 --> 00:58:45,599
of them. I gave you Lou
dort in Okay. See, I don't

887
00:58:45,599 --> 00:58:49,199
think that surprised you. This one
got me. But then you think about

888
00:58:49,199 --> 00:58:52,880
the roster and you're like, okay, Gary Harris in Orlando. Hm,

889
00:58:53,840 --> 00:58:57,679
I think I would be surprised by
that one, just because it feels like

890
00:58:57,760 --> 00:59:00,280
Orlando had so many young pieces that
it would be sparamenting and trying to figure

891
00:59:00,320 --> 00:59:06,599
out who has the defensive chops.
But it's also like who aside from get

892
00:59:06,599 --> 00:59:08,920
like, it's not I don't have
an answer, So they might actually be

893
00:59:09,000 --> 00:59:12,960
the most logical pick because they spread
out after him. It's although, But

894
00:59:13,039 --> 00:59:15,599
the other thing that I found interesting
is so when you look at his average

895
00:59:15,599 --> 00:59:20,559
guarded usage rate, it's like twenty
two something for Royce O'Neill. The gap

896
00:59:20,679 --> 00:59:25,079
between him and second place is basically
three percentage points, which seems small.

897
00:59:25,559 --> 00:59:30,920
That's actually the largest gap between one
and two in the NBA and a single

898
00:59:30,960 --> 00:59:32,360
team. So this is just like
when he's not guarding the number one option,

899
00:59:32,639 --> 00:59:37,920
it's probably because he's on number two
or you're never gonna basically see him

900
00:59:37,000 --> 00:59:40,519
like he never has the opportunity to
catch a beat, is what I'm getting

901
00:59:40,519 --> 00:59:45,960
at, because whether it's wings guards, you're talking point of attack, you're

902
00:59:45,960 --> 00:59:52,280
talking some movement shooters, he's had
to cover like the whole positional archetypical spectrum

903
00:59:52,480 --> 00:59:55,159
here, and kudos to him.
I don't know that he's as good defensively

904
00:59:55,239 --> 01:00:00,440
this season as he was last year, but just the scope of his role,

905
01:00:00,840 --> 01:00:01,719
like I said, it's criminal.
And that's why I think that the

906
01:00:01,800 --> 01:00:06,320
Jazz really need to swing for the
fences on a trade here this season if

907
01:00:06,320 --> 01:00:08,960
it costs you Joe Angles, who's
been I don't want to say low key

908
01:00:09,000 --> 01:00:12,440
awful this season, but he's not
been. He had a nice stretch,

909
01:00:13,039 --> 01:00:15,039
but he just has not been great
for them before going in health and safety

910
01:00:15,039 --> 01:00:17,920
protocols, but I would be looking
to trade Angles or Clarkson. I'm not

911
01:00:17,960 --> 01:00:22,280
training boat on Moodanovitch. He's just
I saw some stuff flowing around about that.

912
01:00:22,400 --> 01:00:27,360
Is he expendable to the offense,
Maybe because Utah's offense is fucking thermonuclear,

913
01:00:27,679 --> 01:00:30,199
But you have a six foot seven
inch wing who's averaging over seventeen points

914
01:00:30,239 --> 01:00:34,880
per game on better than sixty true
shooting. Let's keep get rid of that

915
01:00:35,559 --> 01:00:37,800
that guy. Would you say that
Royce O'Neill is the best player who's ever

916
01:00:37,800 --> 01:00:42,360
won number twenty three in the NBA. Yeah, he has to be right,

917
01:00:42,400 --> 01:00:45,440
No, nobody thinks so. I
think so. My follow up number

918
01:00:45,440 --> 01:00:50,320
for Utah's zero, and that is
the number of people, despite Utah's history

919
01:00:50,320 --> 01:00:52,800
in the last few years of flaming
out in the playoffs. Zero is the

920
01:00:52,880 --> 01:00:58,159
number of people who should be believing
that this team can't win a championship.

921
01:00:59,519 --> 01:01:02,639
I will say, left alone,
they can win a title, but they

922
01:01:02,679 --> 01:01:07,840
are the team where it feels like
they need a move if they want to.

923
01:01:07,920 --> 01:01:08,880
When you look at the five teams
to be they are most likely to

924
01:01:08,960 --> 01:01:13,960
win the title Milwaukee, Brooklyn,
Golden State, Phoenix. You taught they

925
01:01:14,000 --> 01:01:16,480
are the team of that bunch I
think needs a move the most, and

926
01:01:16,480 --> 01:01:20,440
I don't think I don't think it
needs to be a large scale move.

927
01:01:20,440 --> 01:01:23,639
I've seen people it's a periphery depth
piece that can just provide a little bit

928
01:01:23,639 --> 01:01:28,079
more defensive juice so that O'Neill doesn't
have to do this, And I would

929
01:01:28,079 --> 01:01:30,880
say you probably might even need I
think the issue with them is that if

930
01:01:30,880 --> 01:01:34,519
you're they're so deep that if you're
let's say you're able to trans for Tory

931
01:01:34,519 --> 01:01:37,719
Craig, which you could, and
he makes sense, He's probably not consistently

932
01:01:37,760 --> 01:01:42,760
cracking the top nine of your playoff
rotation. So what they need to do

933
01:01:42,840 --> 01:01:45,480
is find a player that would do
that. And Josh Richardson has been the

934
01:01:45,519 --> 01:01:49,440
name that I've come back to for
them. I think they are to me,

935
01:01:49,480 --> 01:01:52,320
they are Josh Richardson away for maybe
being the title favorite is basically I

936
01:01:52,360 --> 01:01:54,679
wouldn't put them. I don't know
if i'd put them over Phoenix or Golden

937
01:01:54,679 --> 01:01:58,880
State in Milwaukee necessarily, if they
traded for Josh Richardson right here, right

938
01:01:58,920 --> 01:02:00,599
now, I would pick them over
Brooklyn. I'd probably picked them over Brooklyn

939
01:02:00,679 --> 01:02:05,440
right now. So maybe that's not
that's bisy, but they're that type of

940
01:02:05,440 --> 01:02:08,119
a player away from really just entering
the does this team deserve to be not

941
01:02:08,159 --> 01:02:12,559
a title contender but the title favorite
discussion, And right now, I think

942
01:02:12,599 --> 01:02:15,599
that's really reserved for those top four
teams, and I'm not I kind of

943
01:02:15,599 --> 01:02:19,039
have Brooklyn out of there, to
be honest with you, where I look

944
01:02:19,079 --> 01:02:22,360
at Milwaukee there with you in the
makes and Golden State. I think Utah

945
01:02:22,360 --> 01:02:28,199
has the chance with a Josh Richardson
size move to enter that discourse. I

946
01:02:28,280 --> 01:02:31,239
might end up having them be my
absolute favorite, even if they don't make

947
01:02:31,280 --> 01:02:35,679
a Josh Richardson size move. And
I've I've picked them in the playoffs each

948
01:02:35,679 --> 01:02:39,400
of the last few years just because
I do ultimately believe in what this organization

949
01:02:39,440 --> 01:02:44,760
has been doing, especially as Donovan
Mitchell has more time in that featured role

950
01:02:44,920 --> 01:02:50,360
in high stake situations. There have
just been some unlucky factors, like there

951
01:02:50,400 --> 01:02:53,239
have been key injuries to them in
the playoffs each of the last few years.

952
01:02:53,239 --> 01:02:58,079
They did run into a bad matchup
three years ago that Rudy Gobert wasn't

953
01:02:58,079 --> 01:03:00,719
as effective against, and unfortunately that's
still being held against him to this day.

954
01:03:01,079 --> 01:03:05,400
Even if it shouldn't be like this, this offense this season, as

955
01:03:05,440 --> 01:03:09,239
you put it, just thermonuclear,
and that still might be selling it short

956
01:03:09,320 --> 01:03:15,079
because it's been so explosive and so
consistently explosive. And by the way,

957
01:03:15,079 --> 01:03:19,000
if you're looking to simplify the Royce
O'Neil defensive workload, he is among every

958
01:03:19,000 --> 01:03:22,000
player that's logged at least five hundred
minutes this year, he's ninth in matchup

959
01:03:22,039 --> 01:03:27,559
difficulty in the league. That's that's
super. Can you guess who's first?

960
01:03:30,119 --> 01:03:31,760
I'm gonna go with door it again? He is in front of him,

961
01:03:31,840 --> 01:03:37,920
but he is also third. Hit
me with it. Matisse Tibel is first.

962
01:03:38,400 --> 01:03:42,000
Fair enough. I think it's easier
to get there when he's played seven

963
01:03:42,039 --> 01:03:44,599
hundred and twenty two minutes and you're
looking at Royce O'Neill, who is at

964
01:03:44,840 --> 01:03:49,440
as we record this almost over eleven
hundred. So but yeah, Royce O'Neill,

965
01:03:50,400 --> 01:03:52,800
the Jazz need you, but they
also need to give you some help.

966
01:03:53,440 --> 01:03:57,280
That's twenty three in league history.
That'll do it for us, and

967
01:03:57,320 --> 01:04:00,280
I'll wrap up the one stat to
know about every NBA team this season.

968
01:04:00,400 --> 01:04:01,800
This was fun. We hope you
enjoyed it. If you have not done

969
01:04:01,800 --> 01:04:05,440
so already, please please pretty please
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970
01:04:05,480 --> 01:04:10,400
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971
01:04:10,440 --> 01:04:13,079
Now some of you've already head it
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972
01:04:13,119 --> 01:04:15,920
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973
01:04:15,960 --> 01:04:17,599
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974
01:04:17,639 --> 01:04:20,119
in the review that will help us
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975
01:04:20,119 --> 01:04:24,519
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976
01:04:24,559 --> 01:04:29,440
Knox, please just consider throwing us
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977
01:04:29,480 --> 01:04:31,519
at its finest. I don't know
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978
01:04:31,559 --> 01:04:35,800
sentence, but it exists. Follow
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979
01:04:35,840 --> 01:04:40,559
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980
01:04:41,039 --> 01:04:44,639
We are on YouTube YouTube dot Com
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981
01:04:44,719 --> 01:04:47,000
at Hardwood Underscore Knocks. Until next
time, I use the shout out to

982
01:04:47,039 --> 01:04:53,559
the one the only, a potential
COVID or injury replacement to the All star

983
01:04:53,679 --> 01:04:59,280
roster depending on how many people are
injured or suffering from COVID entry into leagu's

984
01:04:59,320 --> 01:05:05,000
health and safety, what it calls
whatever, The One and Only Frankie Okenah