1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:04,719 Yeah, Well, the debt report obviously came in and consumers are having more 2 00:00:04,799 --> 00:00:09,000 debt than ever before. Right, we saw student own debt up, Whatto 3 00:00:09,199 --> 00:00:14,960 debt up. Mortgage originations though did dip on higher interest rates, you know, 4 00:00:15,080 --> 00:00:18,399 and with all this debt out there, it leads me to believe at 5 00:00:18,399 --> 00:00:25,039 some point that I think the Fed may be bringing down interest rates midway through 6 00:00:25,399 --> 00:00:30,079 next year. You are listening to Carrie Let's's Financial Survival Network, where you 7 00:00:30,120 --> 00:00:36,000 get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else to thrive in today's trying times. 8 00:00:36,200 --> 00:00:41,679 You need the Financial Survival Network now more than ever. Go to Financial 9 00:00:41,719 --> 00:00:48,880 Survivalnetwork dot com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival Network now 10 00:00:49,240 --> 00:00:58,000 more than ever. And welcome. You are listening to the Financial Survival Network. 11 00:00:58,000 --> 00:01:02,000 I'm your host, Carrie loves. Hey. It's November seventh election day, 12 00:01:02,399 --> 00:01:04,840 and who knows what we're voting for this time? Probably not many of 13 00:01:04,879 --> 00:01:10,599 you are voting, but we vote every day in the global economy, and 14 00:01:10,680 --> 00:01:15,120 right now the votes are for more and more debt. Will that lead to 15 00:01:15,159 --> 00:01:21,840 a higher stock market price? Well, let's talk with Andrew Aarons and you 16 00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:29,480 find him at SYNERGYAGM dot com got a question for Andrew or myself kl at 17 00:01:29,519 --> 00:01:34,319 Carrie luds dot com is the email address Andrew, We got a debt report. 18 00:01:34,840 --> 00:01:38,439 Debt. You know, it just reminds me the Great Gatsby that all 19 00:01:38,599 --> 00:01:42,480 the saying. It's been used so many times. It's a cliche. How 20 00:01:42,480 --> 00:01:47,920 did you go bankrupt? And he answers, well, slowly at first, 21 00:01:48,000 --> 00:01:51,799 and then quickly looks like, with it debt going up the way it's going, 22 00:01:52,239 --> 00:01:53,959 that's going to apply to all of us. So don't you think, 23 00:01:55,400 --> 00:02:00,079 Yeah, well, the debt report obviously came in and consumers are having more 24 00:02:00,159 --> 00:02:02,959 debt than ever before. Right, we saw the student own debt up, 25 00:02:04,040 --> 00:02:09,120 Whatto debt up. Mortgage originations though did dip on higher interest rates, you 26 00:02:09,159 --> 00:02:13,520 know, and with all this debt out there, it leads me to believe 27 00:02:13,560 --> 00:02:20,360 at some point that I think the Fed maybe bringing down interest rates midway through 28 00:02:20,719 --> 00:02:23,639 next year. Yeah, they got to have a choice, but to cut 29 00:02:23,719 --> 00:02:25,840 rates. Well, I mean, I'll have a choice, but I really 30 00:02:25,879 --> 00:02:30,360 think that it's going to hurt the economy if they don't, you know, 31 00:02:30,599 --> 00:02:35,439 reduce rates. And it looks like, you know, they're trying to get 32 00:02:35,439 --> 00:02:38,479 inflation in check, and I think so far they've done a better job than 33 00:02:38,520 --> 00:02:45,319 most people have expected. But with regards to all the debt out there, 34 00:02:45,560 --> 00:02:49,919 I don't think that we could keep rates really this high. Okay, So 35 00:02:51,360 --> 00:02:54,960 looking at it though, you know, economy really not doing well, the 36 00:02:55,000 --> 00:03:01,439 banks, especially the regionals, cane to go down, and we continue to 37 00:03:01,479 --> 00:03:09,400 get increases in the Fed's emergency lending fund to these banks. Does that further 38 00:03:09,520 --> 00:03:13,840 cement your case for what you're talking about? I think so. And you 39 00:03:13,840 --> 00:03:16,840 know, if we take a look at the stock market action on some of 40 00:03:16,840 --> 00:03:22,599 these regional banks in the last week since we saw the big balance, a 41 00:03:22,599 --> 00:03:29,240 lot of these stocks are up. So hopefully, you know, like I 42 00:03:29,280 --> 00:03:36,479 said, the market looks six months forward, and you know, I see 43 00:03:36,560 --> 00:03:40,400 that rates should go down, and in my opinion, I see a higher 44 00:03:40,400 --> 00:03:46,520 stock market. I don't really remember in a very very long time where we're 45 00:03:46,599 --> 00:03:52,080 going to, in my opinion, have a really good bond market and possibly 46 00:03:52,120 --> 00:03:55,560 a really good stock market, which you know, for the average investor in 47 00:03:55,639 --> 00:04:01,360 retirement with a ballanced portfolio or sixty forty foil, this may look pretty good. 48 00:04:02,639 --> 00:04:09,199 You know, going forward here, you think it's baked into the cake. 49 00:04:09,759 --> 00:04:14,039 What's the what's the alternative argument against that? Well, I mean, 50 00:04:14,080 --> 00:04:18,160 I don't really think it's it's it's baked into the cake. Yet you'd see 51 00:04:18,160 --> 00:04:24,519 in the market have extreme volatility. I guess the case against it is inflation 52 00:04:25,040 --> 00:04:29,360 is just out of control and the FED, you know, has to keep 53 00:04:29,439 --> 00:04:33,839 raising raikes. But you know, I don't really see that happening, Kerry. 54 00:04:34,600 --> 00:04:38,439 You know, again, this is just my opinion. But you know, 55 00:04:38,480 --> 00:04:41,560 I've been doing this for over thirty years, and you know, I 56 00:04:41,600 --> 00:04:44,639 have a pretty good feel on what's going on. And it's just my opinion 57 00:04:45,519 --> 00:04:49,120 that usually the FED seems to overdo it, and I just don't really see 58 00:04:49,160 --> 00:04:53,720 the Fed, you know, raising rates. I think in January, here's 59 00:04:53,759 --> 00:04:58,240 like a fifty percent chance that they raise, but that's not a very good 60 00:04:58,920 --> 00:05:05,639 percentage. So looks to me like the Fed will probably stop here, take 61 00:05:05,680 --> 00:05:10,519 a pause, see what happens. And you know, as we do that, 62 00:05:10,639 --> 00:05:14,120 it looks like the stock market, you know, is a little bit 63 00:05:14,160 --> 00:05:17,959 more risk gone here. And you know, with all this money, one 64 00:05:17,959 --> 00:05:21,240 of the things that I'm looking at is all this money that's in money market 65 00:05:21,360 --> 00:05:27,480 right now that hit a record high of five point six trillion dollars in money 66 00:05:27,519 --> 00:05:32,920 market, and you know, with rates possibly going lower next year, that 67 00:05:32,959 --> 00:05:40,360 really to me bodes really well, absolutely going into the final stretch of this 68 00:05:40,480 --> 00:05:45,560 year, which you know, we just get out of the worst stretch that 69 00:05:45,560 --> 00:05:48,959 we're typically in, and we we had a very poor you know, September 70 00:05:49,000 --> 00:05:54,839 and October and November to May. It's typically a really good time in the 71 00:05:54,879 --> 00:05:58,800 market. The market's up seventy five percent of the time, you know, 72 00:05:58,879 --> 00:06:02,680 going back to nineteen fifty and next year we're going into an election year, 73 00:06:03,560 --> 00:06:09,480 and you know, the election year, the market's typically up eighty percent of 74 00:06:09,519 --> 00:06:14,319 the time going back to nineteen twenty eight. So I'm very very positive. 75 00:06:14,439 --> 00:06:17,040 I mean, you know, despite the fact that the markets have had an 76 00:06:17,079 --> 00:06:23,240 intra year average you know loss at fourteen point three percent over the last forty 77 00:06:23,240 --> 00:06:26,680 three years, the market's been up seventy five percent of the time. And 78 00:06:26,800 --> 00:06:30,759 I just feel, you know, right now, we've had some extreme volatility 79 00:06:30,800 --> 00:06:35,759 in the market. We're coming out of the coronavirus here and hopefully things settled 80 00:06:35,800 --> 00:06:40,480 out overseas. I know what we've got, you know, what's going on, 81 00:06:40,560 --> 00:06:42,839 how it do wors and we don't know what's going to happen with that, 82 00:06:43,120 --> 00:06:45,879 but as long as they don't spread, you know, it's not really 83 00:06:46,759 --> 00:06:50,319 having an extreme impact here in the markets. Okay, all right, so 84 00:06:53,680 --> 00:06:58,959 I guess maybe we're going to be a little bit better than people are thinking. 85 00:06:59,079 --> 00:07:01,560 Is that you're thought? I think so, I I really do. 86 00:07:02,439 --> 00:07:06,720 I feel like, you know, there are sectors in the market that are 87 00:07:06,800 --> 00:07:11,759 the leaders, and you know, we've had we saw the technology sector, 88 00:07:12,279 --> 00:07:15,720 uh, you know, do really well and then really give back all its 89 00:07:15,800 --> 00:07:17,680 gains. And you know, we thought a lot of the dividend stops we're 90 00:07:17,720 --> 00:07:23,759 going to do well this year, which really hasn't materialized because of higher rates 91 00:07:23,759 --> 00:07:27,959 and money markets and things like that. But uh, you know, I 92 00:07:28,000 --> 00:07:32,680 think I think we're finally going to have some sort of options in the market 93 00:07:33,639 --> 00:07:38,560 that we haven't had in a really really long time. And you know, 94 00:07:38,839 --> 00:07:43,160 it seems kind of strange of how this may come to some sort of equilibrium, 95 00:07:43,199 --> 00:07:46,560 but in my opinion, this may be very very good for the market. 96 00:07:48,160 --> 00:07:51,759 All right, Hey, well we could We would all love to see 97 00:07:51,759 --> 00:07:57,160 that, wouldn't we. Of course? Of course, I know, I 98 00:07:57,199 --> 00:07:59,680 know, you know, I know there's a lot of wrinkles and you know, 99 00:07:59,759 --> 00:08:03,439 Mark it's sentiment has been pretty It's not great right now with everything going 100 00:08:03,480 --> 00:08:09,519 on in this crazy world that we live in, but it does look like 101 00:08:09,800 --> 00:08:13,399 to me that you know, if we look six months out, things are 102 00:08:13,439 --> 00:08:18,279 starting to maybe aligned pretty pretty well. All right, Well, hey, 103 00:08:18,439 --> 00:08:24,360 I'd love to see it happen. I'm not convinced, but hey, nobody 104 00:08:24,399 --> 00:08:28,000 really knows, do they No one knows, right, No one really knows. 105 00:08:28,399 --> 00:08:31,439 You know, if you have that herb mentality, typically are not do 106 00:08:31,519 --> 00:08:35,159 it pretty well with the market. So I would say that, you know, 107 00:08:37,120 --> 00:08:41,360 I'm not trying to be a total contrarian here. It's just that the 108 00:08:41,399 --> 00:08:45,200 way that I'm looking at things to me look pretty positive. I mean, 109 00:08:45,240 --> 00:08:48,519 over the last you know, twenty some odd years, we really haven't had 110 00:08:48,120 --> 00:08:52,519 a place to go in the in the in the bomb market, and now 111 00:08:52,559 --> 00:08:56,799 the bomb market may be somewhat attractive for portfolios. You know, I manage 112 00:08:56,840 --> 00:09:03,279 money for individuals and most of these people are you know, over the age 113 00:09:03,320 --> 00:09:07,240 of sixty. And you know, the returns in the banks were pretty much 114 00:09:07,360 --> 00:09:11,759 zero since the financial crisis, and uh, you know, they have they 115 00:09:11,799 --> 00:09:16,519 have an alternative at this point. Obviously, we've got to keep inflation in 116 00:09:16,600 --> 00:09:20,960 check, uh inflation. You know, they say the number is three dy 117 00:09:20,039 --> 00:09:26,080 point seven. The numbers probably higher, especially you know with healthcare and uh, 118 00:09:26,519 --> 00:09:31,200 you know, travel and all the things uh you know, uh that 119 00:09:31,279 --> 00:09:35,639 people in retirement are are spending their money on. But to me, it 120 00:09:35,679 --> 00:09:39,799 looks like, uh, you know, the feed is really trying very hard 121 00:09:39,840 --> 00:09:43,159 to keep inflation in check. Okay, well, yeah, it's just at 122 00:09:43,200 --> 00:09:48,159 what cost? Right, at what cost exactly? I mean, at what 123 00:09:48,320 --> 00:09:50,720 cost? And and right now, you know, with this with this debt 124 00:09:50,759 --> 00:09:56,000 report out, you know, uh, the credit report out today and all 125 00:09:56,039 --> 00:10:00,480 this debt that's that we have. You know, it's certainly at it's pretty 126 00:10:00,480 --> 00:10:03,919 dismal when you look at that. But uh, you know, even though 127 00:10:03,679 --> 00:10:09,279 consumers have had more credit card debt than ever, it seems that uh, 128 00:10:09,879 --> 00:10:13,200 you know a lot of them. The credit scores are are are not going 129 00:10:13,279 --> 00:10:16,360 down. So that's a good thing. Yeah, they keep rating them though, 130 00:10:16,399 --> 00:10:22,200 you know, they keep changing everything, so you don't really we really 131 00:10:22,240 --> 00:10:24,960 don't know the number stuff, all right, We could only we could only 132 00:10:26,000 --> 00:10:30,399 go with the data we're presented with. Yeah, no matter how big it. 133 00:10:30,600 --> 00:10:33,559 Uh, yeah, I know what you're saying there. I know it's 134 00:10:33,559 --> 00:10:39,480 something I watch pretty much like a hawk, can I right? Right? 135 00:10:39,600 --> 00:10:43,639 Okay, because it's credit. It's the lifeblood of the modern economy, right, 136 00:10:45,080 --> 00:10:48,960 absolutely, absolutely, And you know, we'll see what happens here because 137 00:10:50,000 --> 00:10:56,320 it's an interesting cycle that we're in right now with mortgage rates and and housing 138 00:10:56,399 --> 00:11:00,799 and how that will affect. But uh, you know I I I have 139 00:11:01,000 --> 00:11:05,360 to think that this is going to be somewhat temporary. I don't think that 140 00:11:05,440 --> 00:11:09,480 we're going to have these rates, you know, for many years to come. 141 00:11:09,320 --> 00:11:13,399 All right, So hey, well, one thing's for sure, at 142 00:11:13,480 --> 00:11:22,159 least to the obesity epidemic. Everybody's making money off of those anti obesity drugs, 143 00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:26,159 right, So maybe that's so we'll do okay there, Well you know 144 00:11:26,240 --> 00:11:30,840 that that that's like a segue into you know where I think, you know, 145 00:11:30,919 --> 00:11:33,360 the market's going to be pretty strong, and you know, I think 146 00:11:33,440 --> 00:11:39,799 that technology, pharma, biotech, these these are the stocks that I think 147 00:11:39,799 --> 00:11:43,000 are going to do extremely well. And you know that's that's where I see 148 00:11:43,039 --> 00:11:48,159 the growth coming. I mean, the earnings still look very good. I 149 00:11:48,159 --> 00:11:52,000 mean eighty percent of the companies beat their earnings the last quarter, and and 150 00:11:52,080 --> 00:11:58,919 you know, the market to me does look pretty strong despite everything that's going 151 00:11:58,919 --> 00:12:01,559 on. You know, I I said, in this crazy world that we 152 00:12:01,600 --> 00:12:05,919 live in, all right, So I hey, so when we have this 153 00:12:07,000 --> 00:12:11,200 discussion next year, where do you think we'll be. Well, you know, 154 00:12:11,320 --> 00:12:15,480 I think that they're looking at the S and P maybe doing nine or 155 00:12:15,480 --> 00:12:18,440 ten percent earnings next year, so earning's growth, so you know, maybe 156 00:12:18,480 --> 00:12:22,440 we're going to be, you know, at an all time high. I 157 00:12:22,480 --> 00:12:28,000 think that's a real possibility. And you know, I think there's also a 158 00:12:28,039 --> 00:12:33,120 good opportunity in the fixed income market as well. I'd be locking into some 159 00:12:33,200 --> 00:12:39,759 balanced portfolios for people with dropping yields ahead. So that's where I think things 160 00:12:39,799 --> 00:12:41,600 lie. And then we're going to be in the election year, which is 161 00:12:41,639 --> 00:12:48,080 typically pretty good, and you know, being election day, we'll see where 162 00:12:48,120 --> 00:12:52,600 things are a year from now, yeah what happens. Yeah, hey, 163 00:12:52,639 --> 00:12:56,840 that's another reason why rates are probably going to come down. I remember Barons 164 00:12:56,840 --> 00:13:01,639 one saying the Federal Reserve is doing what it does best, it's elect re 165 00:13:01,720 --> 00:13:07,799 electing a president, right right, absolutely, So it will be you know, 166 00:13:07,840 --> 00:13:11,440 a year from now, I think I think, you know, I 167 00:13:11,639 --> 00:13:13,639 like to come back on the show and talk about, you know, where 168 00:13:13,679 --> 00:13:18,600 things are at, and hopefully I hope my predictions are right. Yeah, 169 00:13:18,759 --> 00:13:22,639 I hope you're right too, for sure, because the alternative is pretty bleak 170 00:13:24,519 --> 00:13:28,840 and all right, so just tell us again. The best place to find 171 00:13:28,879 --> 00:13:35,559 you again, you can find me at synerg a MG dot com. Uh. 172 00:13:35,960 --> 00:13:39,960 You know, we've put out weekly commentary on the markets, and you 173 00:13:39,960 --> 00:13:43,159 know, if anyone would like to reach out to me, they certainly can. 174 00:13:43,320 --> 00:13:46,440 They can find me, you know, on the web. All right, 175 00:13:46,799 --> 00:13:50,080 Hey, got a question for Andrew and myself k L at Carrie LUTs 176 00:13:50,120 --> 00:13:56,639 dot com is the place to send the email and questions or comments. We'd 177 00:13:56,639 --> 00:14:01,399 love to get them from you and answer and you'll find a link to andrew 178 00:14:01,519 --> 00:14:07,159 site on the show notes of this interview on Financial Survival Network dot com. 179 00:14:07,200 --> 00:14:09,799 Andrews, been a pleasure. Thanks so much for stopping by. Thanks for 180 00:14:09,840 --> 00:14:15,679 having me, Carrie, Thanks for listening to Carrie Lenses. Financial Survival Network. 181 00:14:15,840 --> 00:14:22,120 Your solution to today's trying times from the latest go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot 182 00:14:22,159 --> 00:14:26,320 com Financial servi Network more than ever