Yeah, Well, the debt report obviously came in and consumers are having more
debt than ever before. Right, we saw student own debt up, Whatto
debt up. Mortgage originations though did dip on higher interest rates, you know,
and with all this debt out there, it leads me to believe at
some point that I think the Fed may be bringing down interest rates midway through
next year. You are listening to Carrie Let's's Financial Survival Network, where you
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I'm your host, Carrie loves. Hey. It's November seventh election day,
and who knows what we're voting for this time? Probably not many of
you are voting, but we vote every day in the global economy, and
right now the votes are for more and more debt. Will that lead to
a higher stock market price? Well, let's talk with Andrew Aarons and you
find him at SYNERGYAGM dot com got a question for Andrew or myself kl at
Carrie luds dot com is the email address Andrew, We got a debt report.
Debt. You know, it just reminds me the Great Gatsby that all
the saying. It's been used so many times. It's a cliche. How
did you go bankrupt? And he answers, well, slowly at first,
and then quickly looks like, with it debt going up the way it's going,
that's going to apply to all of us. So don't you think,
Yeah, well, the debt report obviously came in and consumers are having more
debt than ever before. Right, we saw the student own debt up,
Whatto debt up. Mortgage originations though did dip on higher interest rates, you
know, and with all this debt out there, it leads me to believe
at some point that I think the Fed maybe bringing down interest rates midway through
next year. Yeah, they got to have a choice, but to cut
rates. Well, I mean, I'll have a choice, but I really
think that it's going to hurt the economy if they don't, you know,
reduce rates. And it looks like, you know, they're trying to get
inflation in check, and I think so far they've done a better job than
most people have expected. But with regards to all the debt out there,
I don't think that we could keep rates really this high. Okay, So
looking at it though, you know, economy really not doing well, the
banks, especially the regionals, cane to go down, and we continue to
get increases in the Fed's emergency lending fund to these banks. Does that further
cement your case for what you're talking about? I think so. And you
know, if we take a look at the stock market action on some of
these regional banks in the last week since we saw the big balance, a
lot of these stocks are up. So hopefully, you know, like I
said, the market looks six months forward, and you know, I see
that rates should go down, and in my opinion, I see a higher
stock market. I don't really remember in a very very long time where we're
going to, in my opinion, have a really good bond market and possibly
a really good stock market, which you know, for the average investor in
retirement with a ballanced portfolio or sixty forty foil, this may look pretty good.
You know, going forward here, you think it's baked into the cake.
What's the what's the alternative argument against that? Well, I mean,
I don't really think it's it's it's baked into the cake. Yet you'd see
in the market have extreme volatility. I guess the case against it is inflation
is just out of control and the FED, you know, has to keep
raising raikes. But you know, I don't really see that happening, Kerry.
You know, again, this is just my opinion. But you know,
I've been doing this for over thirty years, and you know, I
have a pretty good feel on what's going on. And it's just my opinion
that usually the FED seems to overdo it, and I just don't really see
the Fed, you know, raising rates. I think in January, here's
like a fifty percent chance that they raise, but that's not a very good
percentage. So looks to me like the Fed will probably stop here, take
a pause, see what happens. And you know, as we do that,
it looks like the stock market, you know, is a little bit
more risk gone here. And you know, with all this money, one
of the things that I'm looking at is all this money that's in money market
right now that hit a record high of five point six trillion dollars in money
market, and you know, with rates possibly going lower next year, that
really to me bodes really well, absolutely going into the final stretch of this
year, which you know, we just get out of the worst stretch that
we're typically in, and we we had a very poor you know, September
and October and November to May. It's typically a really good time in the
market. The market's up seventy five percent of the time, you know,
going back to nineteen fifty and next year we're going into an election year,
and you know, the election year, the market's typically up eighty percent of
the time going back to nineteen twenty eight. So I'm very very positive.
I mean, you know, despite the fact that the markets have had an
intra year average you know loss at fourteen point three percent over the last forty
three years, the market's been up seventy five percent of the time. And
I just feel, you know, right now, we've had some extreme volatility
in the market. We're coming out of the coronavirus here and hopefully things settled
out overseas. I know what we've got, you know, what's going on,
how it do wors and we don't know what's going to happen with that,
but as long as they don't spread, you know, it's not really
having an extreme impact here in the markets. Okay, all right, so
I guess maybe we're going to be a little bit better than people are thinking.
Is that you're thought? I think so, I I really do.
I feel like, you know, there are sectors in the market that are
the leaders, and you know, we've had we saw the technology sector,
uh, you know, do really well and then really give back all its
gains. And you know, we thought a lot of the dividend stops we're
going to do well this year, which really hasn't materialized because of higher rates
and money markets and things like that. But uh, you know, I
think I think we're finally going to have some sort of options in the market
that we haven't had in a really really long time. And you know,
it seems kind of strange of how this may come to some sort of equilibrium,
but in my opinion, this may be very very good for the market.
All right, Hey, well we could We would all love to see
that, wouldn't we. Of course? Of course, I know, I
know, you know, I know there's a lot of wrinkles and you know,
Mark it's sentiment has been pretty It's not great right now with everything going
on in this crazy world that we live in, but it does look like
to me that you know, if we look six months out, things are
starting to maybe aligned pretty pretty well. All right, Well, hey,
I'd love to see it happen. I'm not convinced, but hey, nobody
really knows, do they No one knows, right, No one really knows.
You know, if you have that herb mentality, typically are not do
it pretty well with the market. So I would say that, you know,
I'm not trying to be a total contrarian here. It's just that the
way that I'm looking at things to me look pretty positive. I mean,
over the last you know, twenty some odd years, we really haven't had
a place to go in the in the in the bomb market, and now
the bomb market may be somewhat attractive for portfolios. You know, I manage
money for individuals and most of these people are you know, over the age
of sixty. And you know, the returns in the banks were pretty much
zero since the financial crisis, and uh, you know, they have they
have an alternative at this point. Obviously, we've got to keep inflation in
check, uh inflation. You know, they say the number is three dy
point seven. The numbers probably higher, especially you know with healthcare and uh,
you know, travel and all the things uh you know, uh that
people in retirement are are spending their money on. But to me, it
looks like, uh, you know, the feed is really trying very hard
to keep inflation in check. Okay, well, yeah, it's just at
what cost? Right, at what cost exactly? I mean, at what
cost? And and right now, you know, with this with this debt
report out, you know, uh, the credit report out today and all
this debt that's that we have. You know, it's certainly at it's pretty
dismal when you look at that. But uh, you know, even though
consumers have had more credit card debt than ever, it seems that uh,
you know a lot of them. The credit scores are are are not going
down. So that's a good thing. Yeah, they keep rating them though,
you know, they keep changing everything, so you don't really we really
don't know the number stuff, all right, We could only we could only
go with the data we're presented with. Yeah, no matter how big it.
Uh, yeah, I know what you're saying there. I know it's
something I watch pretty much like a hawk, can I right? Right?
Okay, because it's credit. It's the lifeblood of the modern economy, right,
absolutely, absolutely, And you know, we'll see what happens here because
it's an interesting cycle that we're in right now with mortgage rates and and housing
and how that will affect. But uh, you know I I I have
to think that this is going to be somewhat temporary. I don't think that
we're going to have these rates, you know, for many years to come.
All right, So hey, well, one thing's for sure, at
least to the obesity epidemic. Everybody's making money off of those anti obesity drugs,
right, So maybe that's so we'll do okay there, Well you know
that that that's like a segue into you know where I think, you know,
the market's going to be pretty strong, and you know, I think
that technology, pharma, biotech, these these are the stocks that I think
are going to do extremely well. And you know that's that's where I see
the growth coming. I mean, the earnings still look very good. I
mean eighty percent of the companies beat their earnings the last quarter, and and
you know, the market to me does look pretty strong despite everything that's going
on. You know, I I said, in this crazy world that we
live in, all right, So I hey, so when we have this
discussion next year, where do you think we'll be. Well, you know,
I think that they're looking at the S and P maybe doing nine or
ten percent earnings next year, so earning's growth, so you know, maybe
we're going to be, you know, at an all time high. I
think that's a real possibility. And you know, I think there's also a
good opportunity in the fixed income market as well. I'd be locking into some
balanced portfolios for people with dropping yields ahead. So that's where I think things
lie. And then we're going to be in the election year, which is
typically pretty good, and you know, being election day, we'll see where
things are a year from now, yeah what happens. Yeah, hey,
that's another reason why rates are probably going to come down. I remember Barons
one saying the Federal Reserve is doing what it does best, it's elect re
electing a president, right right, absolutely, So it will be you know,
a year from now, I think I think, you know, I
like to come back on the show and talk about, you know, where
things are at, and hopefully I hope my predictions are right. Yeah,
I hope you're right too, for sure, because the alternative is pretty bleak
and all right, so just tell us again. The best place to find
you again, you can find me at synerg a MG dot com. Uh.
You know, we've put out weekly commentary on the markets, and you
know, if anyone would like to reach out to me, they certainly can.
They can find me, you know, on the web. All right,
Hey, got a question for Andrew and myself k L at Carrie LUTs
dot com is the place to send the email and questions or comments. We'd
love to get them from you and answer and you'll find a link to andrew
site on the show notes of this interview on Financial Survival Network dot com.
Andrews, been a pleasure. Thanks so much for stopping by. Thanks for
having me, Carrie, Thanks for listening to Carrie Lenses. Financial Survival Network.
Your solution to today's trying times from the latest go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot
com Financial servi Network more than ever