Howdy and welcome to the Three True Outcomes podcast, presented by Baseball Perspectus.
I'm your host, Ian left Gwitz, and I am joined as always from
suburban Michigan. It's Ben Murphy. Ben, how are you doing? I'm
pretty well, Ian, little bit sleepy, but good. Otherwise that's exciting
fatherhood, happy energy for the morning commute, where if you're looking to me
for inspiration, you'll be consistently disappointed. I guess that's true in general.
Never mind model our podcast, joining us as always our nation's capital. It's
Jared Wise. Jared, how are you doing? I've been better, but
I'm happy to be here with you guys. Thank you. Oh that's a
better answer. That's what I should have said. Steal it it's mine.
I'm not stealing, and I'm giving you credit that it's okay, all right.
On this week's episode, we will be a portioning credit. We will
go through the al season preview as only we can, you know, slightly
worse than other season previews. We will talk about some standing, we will
make possibly some prop beats. I don't know. We'll see, we'll see
how frisky we're feeling, give some wars, and then get out of here,
but first I turn it over to the mail back Captain. I think
this might be our best question of all time. How's it going? Well?
We have a question, so it's going better than last week. This
question comes from Eric, who writes a fun question, three true outcomes,
home run, walk, and strike ya, Ben, Ian, and Jared.
Which one of you is the home run, which one is the walk?
And which one is the strike? Yap? So we answered this one.
Yeah. We wrote in our answers separately to Eric, who tabulated the
results and spit them back to us. I'll read them unless you guys have
any thing you want to preface it with. No, I'm really hoping.
Should we go around in each give our answers briefly? I think you should
just read Eric's response because I think he summarizes the answers and then Great also
does his thing after that. Great? Sure? Okay? Um? So
there were two votes for Ian for Homer, two votes for Ben for Homer,
three votes for Me for strike out, one for Ian for walk,
and one for Ben for walk. There are three of us. I have
some questions because it sounds like there were a lot of books I'm reading.
Read this for me? I don't know what happened here. So Eric says
that Ben's firstinct instinct was Ian his Homer, Ben's walk in Jared strike up,
but thought the other two would go with Ben Homer, Ian walk and
Jared strike out, and that was his final answer. But Jared and Ian
both went with Ian Homer, Ben walk, and Jared strike it. So
Eric drew some conclusions from these results, and they were uh, kind of
scared, Yeah accurate, they were, Yeah, so well, here we
go. Eric concluded that Ben and he and both have ego issues, but
Ben is more willing to sublimate for the better of the group and trying to
match his vote to the others, or that's what he tells himself and uses
to convince himself to vote himself as a Homer quote, Oh the others will
vote me a home run. I'll do so too to go along. Ian
is the voice of the tto, and with that comes the ego thinking he's
the most important of the three. This is common when it comes to talent,
and Eric had that in quotes, I don't he is both unwilling and
unable to sublimate himself, even to attempt to put anyone above himself out of
a weak attempt at false modesty would cause the entire matrix to come crashing down.
And Jared, that's me has start deep seated emotional, spiritual, and
confidence issues. He most likely spend his youth torturing small animals and planning other
devious acts. He seems self effacing, but the Auschucks routine and soft voice
hides something much much more sinister. Aaron not speculate what. Judging by Ben
and Ben's and Ian votes, they agree yeah, and then he makes a
joke about one of our leagues that we're in together, right, Yeah,
I'd figured we didn't need to go dead and so but yes, I mean
that's part of the thing that is combined these three personalities into a single unit,
and you get the kind of team that would allow someone to overpay for
Matt Chapman and still with themselves in the mirror each day and the interests of
my own safety. These were not my conclusions, but those of John Maine,
So thanks John appreciated. Yeah, I mean I think when you get
down to it, it's like it's it's painfully obvious, right, because Ian's
easily the home run, because he's the best of us. I'm lazy and
you're trying hard and missing. It's like, so I thought about this,
Eric, Why is that Ian's twist here is that he was actually coming in
from the pitcher's perspective, not the hinder's perspective. Yeah, Eric is a
red span so like I believe so, like maybe he thinks like home runs
are like special just because that's all they could hit um. And you know,
like there's a part like walks are just as important. Walks set up
the offense. O BP is life. We all know walks clogged the bases
in And the only reason that I would say strike auser not important is uh,
Like, it's not Terry's inherent worthlessness, it's it's this is nihilism.
It's because it's an Orioles fan. We all know this. Strikeouts aren't bad,
They're part of the ecosyst they just don't matter. Yeah, this is
easily the best question we've ever gone. Is a pretty good question. Yeah.
I was like I was trying to think, like, why are all
of my heroes like tonight for Mary Tyler Moore, I guess it works.
That's a good question. Would marry Tyler more character? Would you be you
are. I mean, it's pretty obvious. It's so obvious. Yeah,
I'm afraid I don't know anything about Mary Tyler more so does that big Bed
lu Grant? Yeah, I was thinking somewhere between that and Sue No,
you're right, yeah, no, And I bet this is funnier if you
know what the hell you guys are talking about. Sure thing. I feel
like we finally nailed our demographic culture references, by the way, So can
we talk about how Bed tried to like Gabe theory this thing? Oh?
Yeah, what what does what does that mean? I feel like that means
something. Dude. If there's anything I'm good at, it's overthinking shit coming
up with the same answer. I wouldn't if I hadn't spent so long thinking
about it, but thinking for a while. Like when you were doing tests
in high school or something stantarday stuff, would you come up with an answer
and then like spend twenty minutes thinking about why that might be wrong and put
the wrong into the later on? Um. I think when I came to
standardized tests, I was pretty good at trusting my first instinct because I have
been like drilled into me. I think if not for that, then yes,
that's exactly what I would have done there. I remember the drilling that
into me too. I don't I don't know why, because it's true.
Wait, were they drilling into you the need to be more decisive? Was
this like classroom exercise? They like pull you aside. You don't have a
special Jed. You're never gonna pass if you don't put down any answers for
any of the questions. Anyway, it's going to be really exciting as we
move into the rest of his podcast to come up with decisions that we stick
to and put her names too for the rest of the year. I mean,
yeah, that's why you're the home run and Jared's the strikeout. It's
like, you're gonna come up with the answers and we're just gonna ride coat
tails. Just like math Olympia. It's all over again. All right,
Um you did math OLYMPIAD, I did. I did. I was a
very good mass tad and up until about eighth grade and I still have like
an incredible knowledge of like up to ninth grade math, which serves me really
well on the SA TSU and even like the grys like everyone, um the
college board thinks I am much smarter than I am. Yeah, I don't
anyway, but nobody remembers that math, right, It's like, no,
no, but you are not here about my middle school math for hours.
I don't know quite while you're here. But it's possibly to talk about the
American League and baseball, so we should probably pimp it into that before we
spend two hours reminiscing. I'm just trying to avoid this for as long as
possible. I know why, let's probe into this since we are introspective.
So we we talked about the National League last week. For those who are
listening, and if you haven't heard it, go back. It is maybe
a thrilling discussion. Maybe it's a discussion. Who knows. You can listen
to our thoughts then, But we're going to talk about the more important league
this week, and so we're going to vote a little bit more time to
it. And I guess, do you guys have any top line feelings about
the American League this year? How? How are you feeling that? In
general? I'd be okay if there wasn't an American League the same. My
sense is that the American League, for all its superiority, is going to
be much less exciting to watch. You know, Like in the National League,
the thing that jumped out to me was anything could happen basically, you
know, obviously not exactly anything. But in the American League, it seems
like it's basically like Yankees and Red Socks, Indians and Astros and you know,
somebody else will probably make the playoffs, but it doesn't matter because they're
not going to be as good as those teams. Yeah, I mean,
I definitely think it's the most likely scenario, and as anyone from DC kind
of understands, that's not always the way things play out. In reality.
I feel like probably one of those four teams will struggle more than we expected,
and you know, there may be closer races than we expected, but
certainly in April it doesn't feel that way. Yeah, I agree. I
mean, yeah, my head says, yeah, that's exactly it's going to
happen. But it always it feels like that it never plays out exactly what
we expect. It's hard for me to see what's going to play it differently,
but I think something will do. You, I know, putting you
on spot a little bit, do you have a team in mind that if
you said Okay, this team is likely to be fifth place or maybe the
most maybe the surprise. Not really, I mean no, I it just
no. I mean I could just give a team to give a team,
but I don't have any backing for that. I guess if you've forced me
to pick one in each division, probably Raise, Twins and Angels. Yeah.
I didn't want to jinx the raise, but Raise I mean yeah,
I mean I think they're to me pretty clearly the fifth best team. Um,
maybe even the fourth best team, but they in a troublesome division.
Yeah, I mean, I'd be curious that the Rays are playing in the
Central with their projections would look like I would. Yeah, I would not
pick Cleveland to win the Sentinel Bay. Yeah, I think they're better than
Cleveland. Um, which is you know, it is fascinating as as an
ostensible White Sox fan. It is really uh. I mean, I guess
it's heartening to be able to see light at the end of the tunnel,
even though your rebuild is not going well, to be able to be like,
oh, maybe we can win anyway. I you know, I'm sure
you know what that feels like. But the I'm not this is the world's
worst drinking game. Everyone is just going to drive off the road. But
you know, I it's also just like uninspiring. I do think a lot
of the like malaise of you know why, why it just baseball feels so
stagnant right now is due to the American League and just the teams being so
stratiated that and the team's chasing kind of being the more impoverished teams theoretically at
least, so they just there's just like this lack of effort on everybody's part.
And I think we've seen a lot of tali move into the National League.
You know, last year was the first time the National League won Interleague
since Interleague existed something like that. Yeah, it's been a while, and
you know, I feel like even more so this year. All Right,
So let me as I can sort of kind of tie this to score sheet
I guess a little bit. But thinking about the central in Cleveland, if
you if you were in a scoresheet division something like that, would you how
much would you look at a team like Cleveland and see they're they're on the
downward trajectory and maybe susceptible this year? How much would that change your plans?
Would you still just plan for your team to be good whenever your team
is good, or would you say, hey, you know what, like
maybe my team's a year away from competing really, but I can kind of
go on in this year and make a run out of it. It's interesting.
It depends on your goal, right, And I think this is something
that Ben could talk about, So I'll head it over in a second.
But you know, I think we tend to be actually more like these steady
teams that don't really put our chips in in any given year. And you
know, I think what it comes down to is what your goal is that
is it winning the division or is it building a championship contender? And so
I mean I think it were we the Twins or the White Socks, it
would be cool to knock off Cleveland and get to the playoffs, but I
don't think that gives us a team that would have a prayer of competing and
to win or make the World Series. I think there's a little bit more
randomness in the actual Major League playoffs than in the scoreshe playoffs because of the
way some of the September stuff has waited in scoresheet. So I think there's
probably a little bit more justification in real life to saying like, let's just
get into the lottery and then you know, see how far we can go.
I do agree with you that generally we espouse this all or nothing,
like full rebuild, go for the championship because flags fly forever sort of strategy,
and then we don't really do that very well at least haven't, you
know, like you know, like we haven't I think see some of the
opportunities that were available to us to really fully rebuild. And it's a typical
story. But I think it's like, you know, we don't really want
to admit to ourselves that m Evan Longoria is not going to be part of
a championship corp again. Or um, you know, Felix Fernandez is not
a keeper and so you you know, you hold on to him for a
year too long and then his values basically expire to you and you know,
so yeah, or that conversely that our team is like one player away,
we should cash in Aloy him then as or Kyle Tucker for a player who
could win us a league this year, like Clueber, is that what you're
getting it? Yeah? Possibly, although I mean maybe not Cluber specifically,
but somebody like Cluber. Yeah, just as a like I think we we
tend to behave the way a lot of the general managers in the AO do,
and it is distressing to me when I see other teams do it.
So you know, maybe, as Eric suggested, we should be a little
bit more reflective. That's boy. Yeah all right, UM, speaking of
boring, UM, I do want to talk about each team briefly and do
something something like I did in the NL last week, where focus on let's
say, one interesting player. So just to define the terms, I it's
not like quite a breakout player, I think, but it is the player
who I am watching the most in the early season. They are players who
have tended to end up on our teams for one reason or another. Um,
and possibly like players who I have a good feeling about. But maybe
if they fail, we will never talk about them again and they will go
in the official Greg Bird memory hole. Oh you know, okay, not
not to Greg Bird, who is a great joke. UM nearly drafted him
again by the end of this season. Really good and swing training. I
like right now, I am just like on the top of that roller coaster
once again, like just going I don't know what's coming up next, and
like we we know it's coming up next. It is straight down hill.
It is a shot downward. But like you know, maybe if he you
know, um, like they moved quite over. Maybe they bench Brett Gardner.
I don't know, like the god get some plate appearances with Greg Byrd
here, you don't Yankees are great? Yeah, but all right, so
I want to go west to East for some reason and best team to worst
team for some reason. Um, so we'll start the where uh Houston Astros.
Uh, you know, I don't feel like the heastn Astros have a
lot of like potential breakout players necessarily a player who I've liked. He has
an end up on any of our teams, but you wanted them pretty badly.
Brad Peacock up moved back into the rotation. And the Astros have a
billion pitchers, and I feel like all of their starting pitchers are somewhat valued
in score sheet, including their rookies, other than other than the ass obviously,
just because I think the Astros are one of the teams like the Dodgers
that may just you know, Galaxy minded themselves beyond the concerts. A starting
pitcher and just they're going to have everyone through three innings from now on.
So I don't know that Brad Peacock will hold his job even if he is
a good starter, but I do like him as a number three, number
two starter. I'm also interested in what Carlos Krea does. He's injured again.
You know, I'm little concerned, but I would like to see him
break out of it. Los Angeles Angels. So I have a question about
Krea. Yeah, are you really thinking breakoun? Are you just thinking return
to form? Yeah? I returned to form. I would I would say
I'm curious as to what his next five hundred plate appearances would be like,
if that's the best way I can define the exercise. You know, I
think had he not been injured, I think this would have been a year
where we could have seen a jump. Now I'm starting to get a little
too very worried, but you know, I'm still curious, Like I want
to see him payoff obviously what he could be Los Angeles Angels and Anaheim.
Again, it's not a team with like a ton of transition or a ton
of breakout potential, a player who we're just going to ride or die with
forever is Tyler Skaggs, who, if you recall from last year, had
a two and a half a year. For the first three months it looked
like he was finally cashing in on everything. Got hurt immediately like just I
don't know, spit the bit and like bomb. The second half of the
season ended up with the same yarra he always does. I am in once
again. I do think there is a version of him that is like a
number two starter at one point, and we may see that season, but
he will probably always be hurt in a fourth starter, and maybe if he
has another season like that, I will finally come to a set that the
Oakland Athletics. I think it's a popular breakout pick, but we have really
loved and put a planted a flag in taking Ramon Loriano again, who has
been terrific throughout his career with the exception of one terrible season in the minors
in Houston. You know, not that you can exercise that necessarily, but
if you, if you do, take it out of his career, the
rest of his career makes sense. I think obviously even without breaking out,
he's probably a two to three win player, mostly on the defensive side.
But I think Thunderbirds our go. If that's not exciting to you. Chad
Pinder is a player who we have been targeting in a lot of leagues as
well. You drafted him in the mock draft, just pure stack cast nonsense.
He just hits the ball very hard, and there's something intriguing about him.
There. Seattle is another team without like a ton of breakout potential.
I guess I'm interested in You say a Cucci, but I don't know.
I don't really think of him as like a breakout player. I think he's
fine. I watched him again obviously this week. He seemed fine. I
don't know. Maybe he's better than behind, but I haven't seen it yet.
I'm curious to see if we give Domingo Santana one more starting job,
if he is going to just be like the adequate, strong offense, poor
defense, corner outfielder that I had always expected. You know, he got
shuttled around a little bit in Milwaukee, which ran out of room in patience
with him. But you know, I do think as a last chance,
I think he's ended up in a good place Texas. There are certainly some
interesting players on the offensive side. You know, it would be. I'm
curious if freaked at a door can do it again, Curious if Joey Gallo
could take a step. But I think that's those players are pretty obvious just
to focus on their like rehab cases and veteran misfit toys that they called their
rotation. For a second, Mike Miner hasn't one like all of our teams
for some reason. I don't particularly like him, but you know, he
had a pretty good comeback year in Kansas City. I think there's a little
more there. He's definitely not gonna be pressed for innings, like if he
is ambulatory, he's gonna throw one hundred and fifty innings, you know.
I think there's a lot to be said for that. I'd also like to
call attention to Drew Smiley. I don't know, you know, obviously he's
missed like two seasons in the row now, which is pretty dismal. But
I think the Drew Smiley before he got hurt was on the version of breakout.
I don't know if any of that is left in there, but I'm
and from what I saw the spring training numbers, I didn't really see that
in there, but I'm enough to be curious, which I guess is Texas
entire pitching strategy sig signing the projects In twenty eleven, see what happens u
in the Ale Central Cleveland again not a team with like a ton of surprises.
No team has really changed its roster at all, which is a sign
for the Ale. There's like a lot of stagnancy up and down the roster.
Shane Bieber is a player who we think could probably take another step forward.
Um, I like how you say we either that's clever. Yeah,
I picked him up in a road of league. I'm in all in on
Shane Bieber. You're a believer. Yeah, we believe, we believe.
We don't joke about Jane Bieber. Like that's right right now, too obvious
and beneath us. Sure, but yeah, you know, I think there's
always been hope that this kind of player, uh, this kind of this
type of player, like the control freak um gave a bunch of bunch of
home runs but hopefully all solo home runs. That's always been kind of a
favorite version of our favorite player of ours. Um. But you know,
I think the thing that distinguishes Beaver a little bit is that he actually has
some velocity to back it up. So it's not just like Josh Towers,
Um like lookout situation I have, it's Joshed twisty. I still think the
breakout is in there somewhere. He's about forty. It could happen. Um,
the Minnesota Twins obviously Bayern Buxton, Like you know, we don't have
him in any teams. We like aggressively got rid of him. But aren't
you interested to see them next five hundred bats of Byron Buckston's career. Yes,
I feel like that will tell us a lot. Um. Also,
I feel like I haven't heard enough about Michael Pineda coming back. Um.
You know, I don't know if everyone just got tired of him, but
I think there's a version of Michael Pinada that could be a very very good
picture. I you know, he had Tommy John surgery, which feels relatively
standard. I haven't heard anything bad. Um, I'm curious. I like,
I think the baseline is a mid rotation starter. I think there's still
upside. Maybe he's just you know, boring at this point, but I
am I would like to see if Minnesota can get anything out of him.
Um. I have a theory that Williams Studio has been overdrafted in every fantasy
league. Yes, yes, that's that's true. I've been watching the Twins
a bunch lists last week. He's fun. I get it, I get
it. His helmet flies off all the time. Yeah, I do want
to pick him as a breakout pick because he is obviously the internet's favorite child.
Sure right, you know if you are listening to this already, But
yeah, at least for next year. Like I, it's hard for me
to imagine how he'll get enough at best to succeed, although obviously he does.
He's going to be a top five catcher. Yeah, so yeah,
I guess it's a breakout. The White Sox m everything is sad elo him
as Yes, Um, you know, it's not like a surprising breakout,
but I am very curious to see if Elohim and as Ken deliver on his
promise. I think we are relatively high on him at this point, even
among other people. I think scoresheet is a reasonably good format for him,
although he as a right handed outfielder without a lot of defense like kind of
limits is overall upside. But um, you know, with as a player
in a good ball park without a lot of defense. I think score she'd
also catch us downside a little bit. And I don't know, like Lucas
Giolito is throwing harder in spring training, and I don't know what to do
with that. I'm just gonna note it. I've never seen him pitch well,
so that would be nice. I guess it's interesting, like I've been
hearing all spring training about Martine Perez breakout. For instance, he's throwing a
few miles per hour harder if he missed it as well. And then I
just watched him and it's like four walks, four strikeouts, a bunch of
runs. I know that's Martine Paris. I don't mean this to imply anything,
but do we have a sense for how players that are sort of the
mid career, especially pitchers, I guess, are able to improve such a
rock component of performance like velocity um. Well, with Paris, what they
were saying was a lot of it was hip rotation um that they felt like
he was a little too staff and they were able to diagnose it because they
brought like, you know, like video equipment for the first time. And
right we're in a position where it's like every change could be real because that's
what twenty eighteens in baseball, It's like, yeah, we you know,
if someone's like some like discount hitting true coach like pulled up like a truck
and in that truck was like video of how a player was doing badly and
then there was like a radio active serum and he got bit by a spider.
I don't know, like every story about a player's um break out potential,
I'm like, yeah, I guess, I guess that's true. Now
Max Munsey's good, so anything could happen. Uh. So I don't know.
Uh, it's a strange time to be a fan. UM. You
know, I think everyone is just kind of relying on uh, you know,
maybe technology will save us. UM in Detroit, Uh, you know,
that's a that's a rough team. M there's not a lot of excitements,
but I'm there in the Greater Michigan area. UM, I am interested
to see if Jamber Candelaria can get his hitting. Uh. I don't want
to say back. You know, he I always liked his bat in the
miners um, but he's always a little older his levels. This could just
be who he is. I think there's maybe potential for a breakout and there's
not a lot else that's super exciting there. So I will be watching him
when I watch the Tigers, which will be extremely extremely infrequently. Casey actually
has a bunch of interesting players, none of which are the fast guys.
Really, that's I don't know, have you been hearing about like, well,
you know Casey's They're not gonna be any good, but at least they'll
be fun. Yeah, it's like it is. I don't know, do
I watch the game differently? Is like two eighty on base outfielders who like
dance off first base a lot? Is that fun? Or like, were
we missing that from the game? I don't know, Like a lot of
steels can be fun. I guess I've never found like the running game that
it's not my favorite part of baseball for sure, and like throws over to
first start like my single least favorite part of baseball. Yeah that's fair.
Um, well that's because you're the home run you don't care about. I'm
based off it's just tea. Yeah, that's that's fair. Uh And whereas
you're you play the game the right way? Okay, absolutely, But the
one fast guy who I guess I'm interested in, um, you know,
I was not a believer or not old vertime honesty. I'm still probably more
on the skeptical side, but I think given the darth of exciting options to
pick from, I think he's obviously the player who will dictate the future of
Kansas City the most in the next you know, over the next season,
like if he becomes a star, which I guess it is possible, right
if the power comes around. Yeah, Like, even without plate discipline,
you can see a version of him that's very exciting in the way that Hobby
er bay As was last year. And you know, maybe that's something to
build around or get excited by and doesn't take much. I mean, we'll
get to a team that doesn't have it in a second, but um,
before that. Moving to the East, so the New York Yankees are there,
The New York Yankees are gonna be fun as heck, no, we
should just accept that. I don't feel like they have a ton of breakout
players. They just have a lot of players who are like really good and
exciting and fun and hit the ball extremely far. And the world was a
better place when the Yankees were mediocre, yeah and old, right, and
now they're just like young and all the players are fun. It happened so
fast, Like I feel like, maybe it's just because I wasn't paying attention,
but I feel like we like smash cut from the old mediocre and Yankees
to the young, the fun Yankees. I'm like, I guess, I
guess these guys are fun to watch. Like yeah, it felt like for
a decade it was like the end of Mark to SHARE's career, just like
steadily schooling out before us. And then all of a sudden, it's like,
oh, everyone's twenty three and they hit the ball like a mile and
a half. I okay, great, So I look forward to getting wanted
by Yankee Stadium security for half an hour, um several times this year because
you know, make the track up to Yankee Stadium where customer service is an
option. Just they do have like the least the worst customer service in baseball.
Some somebody needs to say it. It's just like a bad experience to
go to Yankee Stadium. Um, But you know, I guess at least
the team will be exciting when you're listening to Cotton I Joe for the eight
hundredth time, like update your okay next next week? Stocking the Yankee Stadium
experience. I have notes when I go to a game nexst I will I
will take note if they have actually changed anything. Um. But as for
players breakout players, UM, I want to go a little off track.
I mean, obviously, like labor tours will be fun and Eric Judge will
be fun, It'll be interesting. Ce Floyd will come back and you know,
Abe, we'll hear something out of Greg bird who but uh, you
know, CC Sabathia's condition and some of the injuries will lead to a couple
of rotation spots. Johnson Lowizaca is getting a lot of play in the early
going. I think he's an interesting breakout. I did want to flag Domingo
Harman. Maybe there's nothing there, but you know there, I could also
see him breaking out a little bit and it would kind of be the old
standard way of like getting your control together a little bit. But I've always
liked him. I feel like he has some, um like the bare bones
of a player who could be more interesting. And if not, you know,
he'll be the eight thousandth flamethrower in the bullpen. So run me through
a scenario where the ink he has been fewer than ninety five games. It's
really really a challenge. Um, I think I think you could see a
way. I think you are predicting break or breakouts or steadiness for a lot
of players and who are you know, obviously on a step. But let's
say glabor tours crashes you know, um if I mean injuries could derail anybody's
season. Yeah, sure, but I mean you have to be a lot
like looking over the rest all right, I mean they don't even need glabor
tours. Yeah, they have deta like they right, they have actual like
starts on the Yankees. Now, oh my gosh, there's there's your twenty
nineteen AO previous on the Yankees. Like a utility rule. Yeah, they're
like, maybe we'll squeeze him into first base occasionally. Like you just it's
like it's like you go to Costco and you have a Costco card after not
having one for a while, and then you're like, why do we have
thirty six cancer tuna. I mean that's the thing. Like, if they
sustained two major injuries to the hitters and two major injuries to start of pitchers,
I think they're still fine. Yeah, yeah, but they might not
win ninety five. I think they still would It's really true, Like they
you know, they are down a couple of starters, and I'm like,
they could probably lose all their starters and just throw bullpen games and be fine.
That's the kind of scoresy team I want to have. Honestly, Like,
you guys already know this. You guys already know this because I've been
talking about this since we were in Wasserman together back in the day. It
was just like that was back when and I tried to build that team.
That was back before we were running teams together. But it's just so much
more fun that way. It's like there's a certain excitement, so like,
can I win this like fourteen to thirteen baseball game? We'll get there.
They are running your dream Scoreshee team. Though it is it is sad.
It's just sad all around good Yankees fun. Everything is bad. Um moving
on to everything being bad Boston Red Sox again, Like, I don't think
they need breakout players. Um, I feel like I'm higher in Raphael Devers
than consensus. He's like he was like twenty one last year, right,
everyone realizes that. And I guess you saw like the downside to him.
You know, maybe he's not gonna get on base enough. You know,
if he doesn't play defense well enough, he's gonna get moved over to first
or to another team. And like there's definitely there's definitely a path where he
like crashes out of baseball. But um, you know, I think he
can also really just hit the snot out of the ball and maybe there's a
version of him that is a star and maybe it starts this year. Um.
He also entered up with Jackie Bradley jun year number teams. Um.
I again, maybe I do feel like there's one season where Jackie Bradley junior
and he's older than he's like twenty nine now right or thirty. Um,
but I do feel like there's one season where he's just gonna put together every
trait that he is flashed and then still trying to defend from. No,
he's he's gone higher than that since then. We drafted him in the sixth
round like six years ago, and we were proven right over time. I
think we were the ones that drafted him earlier a few of those times.
But um, yeah, no, I think he's shown every like there might
be a Jacoby Ells for a twenty eleven, maybe not to that degree,
but like he has a lot of different tools and you can see them all
come together. Um, Tampa the San Diego of the South. San Diego
is also of the South Southeast Ale then San Diego the AO landed on it.
Everyone's interesting. They have a lot of fun. Like the Yankees could
get could have like two injuries and still win ninety five games. Tampa could
suffer like seven injuries and still have essentially the same eighty four win team.
It's like a different talent. I don't know if it's exciting. It's like
a strange party track. We leave the universe and to win players. But
um, you know, obviously they've like amortized their team, and you know
they have like nine or ten players that could be like interesting breakouts. I
would highlight of them. I think the one I'm most interested in right at
first is Brandon Law of the recent extension. You know, is just if
you PLoP them at second or PLoP at first, is there a twenty five
home run bat in there early on? But you know, could be a
billion player, could be Tyler Glass now, could be Awesome Meadows, maybe
Tommy Fantasy MVP candidate. We'll get to that, you know, is it
Kevin Kermeyer coming back just every every like everyone could be good and maybe everyone
will just be a two win player. So I have a question about this
because I think it's like one of the oldest tenants of like analytics in terms
of team building, that stars and scrubs is easier to upgrade than like,
you know, a plethora of mediocre players mediocrity. And the Rays are obviously
a smart group of folks, especially in the front office. What do you
think is there like pitch around this approach, Like what is the strategy like
when they are like drawing up the game plan, you know, how do
you think they're thinking about, like their route to success, given you know,
a roster of like you said, two win players. I mean,
it's interesting. I guess they have tried to seek out players with higher variants.
It's I think why they traded for fam It's why they traded for Austin
Meadows and you know Tyler Glass. Now, so maybe that's part of it.
Like the other thing is they didn't come from like, well, we
don't want any stars. I think they have turned a bunch of potential zero
win players into two win players through player development and so in that sense.
You know, maybe they will be able to trade four for one and get
a star that way. Yeah, I mean I think money is part of
it, right, they that's just how they had a constructive team that I
think. You know, I think it's not illogical to have a scenario where,
you know, having no holes. That is pretty important too, to
have nobody with negative or zero war going on, and then you I'm just
disappointed that Toronto is coming up next because like the perfect seguay, but okay,
and then maybe look into a season or one or two you guys has
a fluky or breakout year, you know, Yeah, that makes sense.
Yeah, it's interesting, And like I think the most likely scenario is they
missed the playoffs by ten games. Yeah, but I can see them pushing
Austin. It's harder for me to see them pushing the Yankees, right,
you just have right, I think it's what you were saying, You just
have to get into the playoffs somehow I figure out what's doing from there.
Yeah, and it's an exciting challenge. So yeah, I think there'll be
one of the teams I will be watching the most in the early going until
I understand better what they are Toronto is also like sneaky, a little more
fun than you would expect. Obviously, they will get a lot more fun
in three weeks where Vladimir Carr Junior becomes a major leaguer magically has developed enough
to be major league college burer after the Super two deadline. I just think,
like when he had the oblique injury in spring training, there must have
been someone who did, like the like Jerry McGuire elbow yes to themselves and
we were like no, I mean, he was perfect the whole time.
We just thought the injury and all. But you know, they're about to
get very fun on the roster right now. I don't think they are like
a ton of, like again, exciting breakout players. We talked about this
Dre in the Mock Draft podcast. I think Danny Jansen, it will has
the starting job. Um. I don't know that he's a breakout player so
much as a good player who will have a starting job for the first time.
Um. But I am curious to see if there is even more in
there then um we might think. And I feel like even the downside,
like catcher is such a nightmare, Like if he's just a typical starting catcher,
Yeah, that's fine too. Um so there's one team left that was
like a great um rap around. I think we did a good job.
That's how heartbreaking appreciate it. We covered all the useful teams. Yeah,
so I don't know how to approach this season preview. UM. Last week
on fangrafts dot com, Uh, they uh, they did a season preview
of their own where instead of going by team, they went by position and
ranked all the teams placed in the depth charts. Um. I had trouble
finding the Baltimore Orioles in these rankings. Is maybe you need a new prescription?
Yeah, just because you know, you like reading article in the long
article and it's sometimes hard to scroll all the way to about it and I
probably just missed them somewhere in the middle. Yes, but um boy,
would you line it up? What was there was like one position where they
were twenty six? Right? Was that left field? Yes? Maybe where
they were wearing twenty six And that was like the high water. It was
like they should have held a parade that day. They're consistent. That's what
you want in a team, right, Consistency More thirties than the end of
draft copy in a newspaper article. Oh boy, it was just uh is
a oh my god. I was looking at that and going, I don't
know if I can watch this team once a month, So you're having to
do it once a day. Yeah, so you're gonna watch the team every
day? Yeah, just turn on the team and go, I wonder what
these players are up to. Yeah, it's exciting, it's gonna be fun.
So, Jared, I'm gonna turn over to you, which player are
you most excited by to watch an opening day? How do you limit it
to just one opening day? I mean obviously opening day starter and yourew Cashner's
gonna be exciting, um, but not there you want him to be.
Probably, I'm fascinated about what happens with Chris Davis. Yeah, what's I
mean, what's his strike at rate at which they could bait on him,
like sixty percent? There's got to be a number where they're like, no,
you're calling it, but I don't know what that number is. Just
to see him approach infinite strikeouts like yeah, like the Alan Shepherd, just
pour off it, just like right, breaking like breaking the space bear,
just like, okay, this is exciting you slt me on that. But
no, I mean it's stop. Like I don't want to say you see
something like Richie Martin, which I guess, but on any other team,
he's like a backup utility guy. I don't any other team, I'm sorry
to say backup utility guy is extremely generous. You gotta give me something here,
you I don't know. I mean, it's it's almost it's almost impressive.
How uninspiring to a t Yeah. Um, Like, it's not just
that they're bad, it's that there's like no hope anywhere. Um, Like
I could see a scenario like I was starting to think, what is the
most optimistic scenario for the Orioles. It's like, okay, well we know
all these players never like never got any professional minor league development, right,
so maybe they'll learn that, Like maybe that's good for the pictures. Maybe
there's a way that Dylan Bundy breaks out and they show him like, oh,
you've been pitching wrong, Like, oh so I have. I think
he just gets traded, right, that's just like it. Oh yeah,
if he's any good at all, he's gonna get traded. The media.
Um, I put in Austin Hayes as name there. He's not even on
the opening date your roster anyw r M. I don't know. He was
so bad last year. I guess he could be. Okay, it's it's
a nightmare. It is just they are like I've been making a lot of
oriole jokes um over the years, and then you just sit down with a
team and you're like, oh, this is so much worse, and I
imagine this is horrible team. So I heard this question somewhere else off here
I'm stealing from. But who's the it was All Star that's here? Or
are they going to change the rules put on the like uh, who would
you put on like the Meebia guide? Um? Yeah, yeah, um,
you know the All Star is going to be I assume Michael Gibbons,
right, sure, because it's like they went and down pick the terrible closer
rule. Sure. I mean, but he's gonna have like two saves because
there wasn't gonna win any games by the All Star break. So yeah,
I think he will also potentially be genuinely the best player on the team in
terms of war as a wand an encloser mitigate the amount of damage he can.
Yeah, so okay, how many wins are you predicting for the Orioles
this year. We haven't really I don't want to put you on spot here,
but Jared doesn't really do that. Yeah, he just expects them to
win. Yeah. I'm trying to like, at what point you would take
the over, like sixty right, The Pakoda has him at fifty eight Hard
on dround fifty eight right, Yeah. Man Graphs has him at sixty two.
CBS Sports has him at fifty six under under under it's just it's hard.
Champ has him at sixty three. I don't I don't know. It's
so part of me says that they're going to be sneaky good this year because
I have to say that. I'm you know, I don't know how it's
gonna be. I've seen everybody doesn't have to say that. You don't you
don't like to say that. I mean, well, what the reason gonna
happen is They're they're gonna avoid getting the number one draft pick next year.
Somehow that's gonna happen. So if that means they have to win sixty three
games, fine, so be it. That's what's gonna happen. But it's
hard to like, look at go down to the individual player. Leven build
some sort of modere like looking at the individual player. How is this team
going to win sixty games? You can't. I don't see how you can
do that. Oh my god, I watched Josh Rogers in spring training.
Yep. Oh, like it's not like there's hope coming from the minors.
Yeah, it's not like they've been like sitting on better players helping. These
are just like it's bad in them. The os opening day rotation, it's
injucasher in game one, Game two is a bullpen game, and three,
four and five our question marks. Really yeah, that's amazing. Oh that's
that's that's not great. Yeah, okay, so look forward to that being
a running theme of this podcast for the season. Um, all right,
so that's that's all. I feel like, in the interest of time,
maybe we should just do some awards and maybe just if we want to,
um, come up with our playoff teams and award winners for the season.
So, uh, we didn't do playoff teams in the anal, but um
where it's actually tricky, right, where it's actually interesting. So maybe maybe
we'll warm up at the ale because I think we have four plants. Like
okay, So my thought on these season preview things. By the way,
um is that they're all done incorrectly because it's done like which team do you
predict to win the division? Which is a dumb question. The question should
be like what are the odds of each team winning the division? At least
in a like the saber metric type location that said, I don't really have
the time or interest to do that, so we're going to do it the
easy way. Great, but um, there are definitely places that have um
projected that sort of information. Yeah. I think it's I think it's more
fun because it's like that's when it's like, oh, twenty seven out of
twenty seven people pick the Astros to win the division, but look at the
Angels. I guess nobody knows anything. It's like okay, yeah, but
like you should pick the Astros. Yeah. Like it's not saying that the
Astrois were like a deadlock because twenty seven out of twenty seven people picked them
the first place. It's just like they're obviously the best team. Yeah.
Yeah. Um, so I feel like you lose sort of gradation. I
feel like you lose like which teams you think are likely to break out or
interesting. It's tough to plant a flag and still seem like a sane person.
But that said, we're gonna do it the easy way. So,
um So in the Al we have the Yankees in the East. I'm gonna
say, yeps, would you need to make say, having the Orioles winning
the East would be while? But what are you on a sports website?
No, I'm just curious, like if you had, like, at what
point has become off the board? Is there any number? Really? Like,
you know, this is probably worth it from a mathematical perspective to spend
like one dollar and I think higher than that. Right, No, that's
a waste of a dollar, right If I, like Joe Gum for that,
would put a dollar on Actually, if they were really ten thousand to
one, I would probably put like one hundred dollars down just because that would
be so unfathomable. I feel pretty confident their ten thousand to one now.
But yeah, but it's hard to imagine there being a number. Um But
yeah, So the Yankees in the Al East, I think we see them
as pretty substantially better in the Red Sox Cleveland and Central although you know,
I feel like I like Minnesota to come closer to challenging them. Yeah,
I think it'll be at least ten games. Think the interesting I would,
Yeah, I would take the under, but like again, like I had
to pick Cleveland, I think ten games is the closest that I can see
any of the various online projections having the Twins. I feel like they have
more faith in Corey Cluber than I do. And I never like teams that
are built so much through pitching as Cleveland is, because I feel like projection
systems, you know, they roll the dice on injury, but not in
like exactly a way that you can do it in real life. Um so
you know, part of me thanks that Minnesota has a better shot, but
yeah, it's not great. Remind me who the Twins pitchers are. They're
all superstars. Yeah, we went over that. Yeah, Martin Perez he
picked up from the Velocity. Nobody injury prone or anybody that's been in there
are coming back from Tommy Joan or anything like that. It's a bunch of
pitching machines who are sentient. Yeah, really talented. So I get get
news on Bovard Orioles are plus thirty thousand to win the American League est.
Wow, that's gotta be worth at least dollar. That's a new car for
a dollar, Come on, I would I would put it in a mutual
fund. I feel like that gets to be closer to the car. All
right, well, I look forward to you losing your dollar. In the
West. We have Houston, um, Boston as one of the wild cards.
So as the other wild card, will we say the Tampa ray Base
Yeah, Twins, That's not what I said. Yeah, I think the
Twins will be the other team closest to the race when the race when the
second wild card, But I don't think the Twins will be that close to
the Indians. Yeah. I like the Twins better as a contender for the
division in an eighty nine win kind of scenario then, although I guess that
would have nine wins would probably get them ahead of the race. Yeah,
yeah, so maybe eighty five eighty six. Um, you know, and
I don't want to discount the Angels and they don't want to discount the A's.
I think they are both fairly interesting. Um. I have a stupid
question. We talked about the Angels twice already, but um, it's since
the Trout extension, right, we didn't did you have about that. Last
week, we did not talk about the by Trout extension. It will be
an Angel extension, I think so. I think they decided it's crazy,
right, not somebody. All right, he's totally worth it, right,
isn't he totally worth it? Yeah, he's worth more. I tried explaining
that to the co worker. Did not go, well, yeah, I
don't Okay, all right, that's why we didn't talk about it, because
it's boring. He's worth it, he's amazing. I'll hear a trout.
Were they like he's paid too much? Yes, okay, that's why you
just stopped talking about baseball with that person. I mean, they're not they're
not a dumb person necessarily. It's just you can't just like five minutes to
somebody. Well, I don't know. There's like some things where you're just
like, if you can't see this, then it's not gonna be interesting talking
to you about other things, because I have no confidence that you'll get anything
else. I mean, I can appreciate how it's hard to fathom that one
baseball player is worth over four hundred million dollars. I can appreciate. Okay,
do you just like go to Baseball Reference and show that Chris Davis's contract
and then say like four times this you could have him or four of these,
just like, don't make me google Mark Trumbo. It's just sorry for
that tangent. I guess we'll come back to that in a second anyway,
right, all right, So in the National League, just to start from
the easy position, I guess the Dodgers in the West. Ye, yeah,
okay, that's it for the easy positions. Uh, in the Central
who you got Cardinals? Oh no, I had the Cardinals too. Oh
no, Well, I don't know. This is the problem with the Cardinals
is I don't like their pitching as much as I think the projections stuff like
they're pitching. I know, going to college in Chicago leaves you guys hating
Cubs fins, But I feel like Cardinals fans don't not really any better.
No, no, you don't. You don't complain about Cardinals fans nearly as
often as you complain about Cubs fins. And I take umbradge with that.
Oh, I think that is a correct decision. Well, like I said,
I think it's because you went to college in Chicago. Yeah, I
be more Cubs fan than Cardinals fans that is fair. It's like exposure bias
or whatever. Yeah. Um, I might actually say the Cubs, don't
don't let them pressure into this. Yeah, it's not even that I think
the Cubs will win the division. I do think you like, those two
wild card spots are just gonna be amazingly fun to watch. Um. Yeah,
yeah, we would hope. Yeah. Um, I think certainly all
five teams have at least some shot. It's hard for me to construct this
way where the Pirates win, but about all five teams in ESSENTI will have
a chance of this. Yeah, yeah, yeah, okay, I agree
with thing. Um. I do think it's fairly unlikely that it's the Reds.
Also, I know you mentioned the Pirates. I also but yeah,
it seems like the Reds have perceived a strategy of like signing famous people,
which is not like ideal, but it's also very Reds of them. Yeah,
but you know, I it's not out of the question. I think
they have a lot of talented hanging around the upper miners. Yeah, it's
possible, but very rightly. Um, right, I do think it comes
down to three teams. M I would probably say the Cardinals. Given April,
I might just change my answer to the Cubs given the vagaries of pitching.
I don't see how you could. I think the Brewers are easily in
the mix as well. I don't see how you could change your division pick
based on spring training. Oh, the vagaries of pitching, not spring training.
I thought you said based on April. Oh, based on the team
that they are rolling into, Like if if you told me one hundred and
sixty two games of these people. Okay, I used our composition today basically,
Yeah, okay, I think the Cubs probably have more resources to spend,
and although like they don't have, the Cubs don't have a ton of
depth. But I feel like the Cardinals have even less depth in the rotation
and they don't quite realize it, which may point towards Milwaukee, who actually
do have rotation depth. Yeah. When I was having and hanging about the
Cardinals, I was actually thinking about the Brewers, not the Cubs. Um.
All right, so we may we may all have to go our own
way on this. How much more exciting would baseball be if the Rays were
in this division? That would be great? Yeah, all right, you
should have like a good team's division and everyone else division relegation. That's fair.
Yeah, you can see, like the Marlins playing against the Orioles thirty
five times a year or whatever. Sounds great. It's like, sorry,
this game has been called due to zero to zero and the ninth I like,
nobody's done anything that constitutes a baseball skill, Jared, is that your
idea of heaven or hell? Yes? I like, instead of experimenting the
Atlantic League, they should just let the O's and Marlins play each other like
an entire bud. Just do whatever rules they want. Calvin Ballitt, Yes,
I would probably watch that, or you do, like, uh,
you know, they have to play a hundred games in a row and after
every game, the winner gets to make a new rule. Oh that sounds
good. All right, Sorry, let's predict that. At least I keep
taking us on terrible tangents. Um, I don't really have a good answer
to who will win the A. At least I do not feel good about
any pick. I will you mean the NL East, right? I think,
yeah, at least I feel relatively confident. Um, And at least
I don't know off the top of my head. I would probably say Nationals.
Again, I'm saying Nats, and I just said, because I appreciate
Hu risk, but I think that's it's tough to say which team in the
division has the most hubrists, though I feel like I feel like I guess
just to bekn Tray and I'll pick the Phillies. I don't really think they'll
win. Actually, I think it's the Nationals, but I mean, I
don't think it's any more than like twenty five, twenty four, twenty two,
eighteen. So I don't feel strongly about the Nationals pack. You can
convince me it's the Phillies. I feel like the Phillies do have of strow
top end talent. They probably have a deeper rotation. Um. I don't
like with my issue with the Phillies is I probably don't think that like Jean
Sigura is quite as great like some of their upgrades. I do think real
Media is great, but I think he'll fall back a little bit. Um.
The Phillies to me, have a few more holes than the Nats do
at the outset. But um, do you think there's a chance that the
Braves win that division? Oh? Yeah, what chance? Yeah? And
the Mets also could Yeah, the Marlins definitely could not. Or you know,
yeah, I like the Marlins better than consensus. I don't think they're
dismal, but um, you'd pick them against the Os in the one hundred
game series. Oh yeah, you can at least pretend to think about it.
Then no Marlins would win as Marlins would win like any time to ninety
against the Oriels. There, I think they're a much better team. They
have no offense, but they have like four to five interesting starting pitchers.
Oris TBD sorry game two we just no, no, no, no,
the bullpen game is game to TBD is game Sorry sorry I thought this,
um no at Atlanta, Like, I don't think it's hard to see like
three to four breakouts from their stable starting pitchers. I just wonder whether they'll
be able to find cycle through the right pictures and enough time to not like
drop a bunch of games in April and May. Um, but you know,
it doesn't take much to think that like Ozzie Albies could break out or
round County. It could get even better. Josh Donaldson could be a six
win, seven win player. Like, I don't think any of that's like
unfathomable. And if that happens, then all of a sudden they're winning division.
You know, I just don't think it's the most likely picks, which
is why I would say percentages are more interesting then top line stats, right,
um and the math. You know. I am probably less into the
mats than the projections, but I think they have an easy path to wedding
division as well, so totally conceivable. Um so yeah, I don't.
I don't know. Um, I do think probably I would have whichever whichever
one I end up hemming and hauling with, between the Nats and Phillies,
I would have one of them as the wild card or the number one wild
card for me, and number two could be the other one out of the
East instead of the Central. Yeah, it doesn't it doesn't have to be
the Cardinals. Sorry, I'll say covers for the second while. Yeah,
so Jared, you've got Phillies, Nationals, Cardinals, Cubs and yeah.
Yeah, um, I don't want to say exactly the same, but probably
I would say that in a different order. Um I might. I might
say Atlanta with the second world card, just to vary it if we had
to. But like if I were coming back from the future and I told
you it was like Mets, Braves, Reds, Brewers, Yeah, sure
would you believe me enough to like go bet your life savings on it.
Sure, if you told me the Rockies were champion, like, I could
see. I don't really like what the Rockies have done, but I could
see it. He told me the Padres had the best record in the NL.
I think there's a really clear path to that happening. Yes, less
likely than the others, but yeah, sure, all right, So UM
awards quick. Yeah, so al MVP. Before before it started, we
uh put together a little short list, so Mike Trout, Yeah, so
having a combination of like stories and players, I feel like I feel like
storyline has become less and less important to voting goodness with more and more nerds
taking over. Um, but you know there's still elements of that. So
certainly, Mike Trout, Mickey Bett's on the list. Um, I think
I put Xander Bogart's on the list. I could see his age twenty seven
season being very interesting. Um. If the Red Sox do pass the Yankees,
something has death changed in order for that to happen. If the Yankees
win, um, I feel like Aaron Judge might just win and be based
on hitting sixty home runs and being a very physically buzz expensive. Um.
If the Astros win one hundred or one hundred two, Um, I don't
know that it could be any of a bunch of players. I put Alex
Bregman maybe as the most likely to be the star of that. I feel
like he is on the verge of being very well known. Um. I
feel like he wants to be a famous person. Yeah, a personality.
I was gonna say, he's definitely more interested in putting himself out there.
I feel like, yeah, and I feel like sometimes that pays off in
narrative and MVP votes in particular. Um, which is fine. I'm you
know, I am big supporter of his position. Something so great he wants
to be a famous person ideal. I was thinking, what if, like
if the Rays surprise, UM, I can't guess. Yeah, well is
it like like it could be Blake Snell. But I did put Tommy fam
I think there's a potential version of him that has the same season he had
two years ago, and that's the level season. Yeah. Well, like
if the if the Rays win ninety games, how do they do it?
I mean, this is the question I was asking earlier Rays, Like it's
got to be somebody breaking out. So whoever that is, that's the answer.
Yeah, and I like it could be any of a bunch of people.
You know, that I had him theoretically is most likely. I don't
think I would put him on a top three list, but just to mention
it, um, so probably we will be bored against. Say, Mike
Trout will be the most valuable player in the American League. Okay, cool,
say young? I have a few names. Uh, I think Chris
Sale is on the list. Um, he's never won a say Young,
that seems ridiculous. Um, Justin Verlander and Garrett Cole, the Astros,
a bunch of Cleveland Indians. I am soften quite cleber this year, but
Trevor Bauer for sure. But I could see I could see any of the
five starters to me right sneaking into this. Um. You know, I
think the I think the shot that all five are good is pretty low,
which is why I'm a little down on Cleveland. But you could also see
certainly one of them being a cy Young caliber player. Um, if the
Yankees are good, maybe James Paxton gets a bunch of wins and is also
a good pitcher, um, thus hitting all quadrants and uh, you know,
Blake Smell did win last year. I don't. I think it's super
likely he'll go again. But I see those as the most likely candidates.
Do you have a favorite from that? M I hate them all, but
I go with Chris Hale, really go with Gary Cole. I'm gonna go
with Garrett Coll as well. Oh I don't. I'm trying to be a
contrarian in Yeah. Yeah, I think he's a really good picture and I
can see it happening. Um, I'm hoping. I'm hoping that Garrett coll
and Terror Bauer finished one too and continued there heated rivalry from UCLA where they
were teammates in college and yet don't talk to each other because one of them
is a weird though. Figure. I know it's not gonna say who um
Rookie of the Year, Um, I put a few names on. I
think Lad Greyer Junior has a shot. I mean he's not a major league
player right now, but you know, I think by the maybe someday,
Yeah, I think someday he'll figure out how to play at the major league
level. Eloy Jimenez um and then coming up, um, you know,
for Whitley, I think has you could end up taking Brad Peacock's job we
talked about, but um, we're Colin McHugh. Um. I think he's
very close. Having watched him the spring training, I think Casey's Lazaro had
an amazing spring training, for whatever that's worth. And then I hurt right
at the end of it. So maybe that's the end of his rookie hops.
Um, And I said Danny Jantsen just because he has a job in
April, which is always a good way to compile stats as rookie. Um,
any thoughts here, I mean it's gonna beg Yeah, I think so.
I think he's gonna be too exciting to ignore, even though he'll come
up a little bit later and have less counting accumulation types of factors, He'll
he'll wow voters. Okay, Um, sure, I think he'll have the
story. I will say, oh ahead then as who I think is maybe
a little bit more ready, and also it's going to have the extra gone.
But yeah, I mean I think Lutgar Dunior is pretty good. So
it's not like a shine. Yeah, there are I mean many scenarios where
it's not him, but you have to say, oh I did not so
I do not care for your rules, but nonetheless, uh n L MVP,
I think n L MVP could be a very long list, just because
again it's a narrative based award still to some level, and there are a
lot of teams that you could see with the narrative. Um, is n
L m VP the most interesting award race? Do you think? Or like?
Will it turn out to be the most interesting award race? UM?
One of them? I think Cy Young is also going to be fascinating in
that league. UM. But you know, part of it is that I
think, you know, if Mike Trout was in the NL, it would
not be an interesting race, right, And if Bookie Betts was in the
NL, would not be an interesting race. And I feel like Spreigman would
be the fair like I think the favorites are still in the ALE, but
there are a lot of players who I have at a roughly similar level.
I think when talking about the alf He race, he have to talk about
Brace Harper and Manny Machado. You know, the classic moved to a new
team the narrative, so they are certainly on the list. Paul Goldschmidt,
who is moving to a new team. If the Cardinals are successful. Um,
he will probably be the biggest name as to why. Um, you
know, even if he's maybe slipped a little bit from his peak, if
he recovers at all, too, maybe that's a comeback narrative. Um.
If Chris Bryant comes back even to what he was last year, I think,
you know, he would be the best player on the Cubs. Uh.
You know, I think with probably you could back some regression from having
bias, and maybe Anthonys so as well. So I do think it would
be Bryant's team for another year. The Gnats are interesting, I you know,
I think Anthony Randown has been historically underrated, but maybe it's his team
now. I could also see him just getting passed by one Soto who has
an amazing year and just wins the MVPH twenty years old or whatever he is,
And then you know the Brewers. It's hard for me to imagine Christian
yell Is winning a second award because I don't I don't think of him as
like a typical MVP caliber player, but there's no one who really stands out
as like headed shoulders above these players, so he would certainly be the best
player and potentially the best team. Do any names from that standout as a
player who will go if they really don't? Yeah, okay, yeah,
I don't know. I want to Canna take the field. Uh no,
no, you literally a question. Ah, it was worth a shot.
So good at making decisions this seam. Um, I'll say Windown. Okay,
I will say one soda ooh all teammates last year. Yes, uh
see, I know stuff about baseball for I think for much the same reason.
Right, if Washington is going to win the division, I think that
will be very surprising to a lot of people. Yeah, they may look
to the best player. Um to that end, Actually you may find them
here. And I'll say young race. I put a bunch of names on
this list, but um, to cut it down a little bit. Like
Jacob Degram certainly won last year, I could win it again. Max Scherzer,
Um, you know, I think certainly a favorite in this Aaron Nola
came in third last year. Um, everyone loves hair Bond Marquez is their
Sleepers a young pickum. And then I have a bunch of what I would
consider second to your name. So Noah Synder Guard, Chris Archer, I
put Walker Bueller Steven Strasburg. I thank you forgot somebody, Jack Flaherty,
No, uh, Ian, Who's the best picture alive? It's a great
question, Max Richard. I know he's starting this season. I know he's
starting the season at the DAL, But I'm gonna go with Clayton Krisha.
Yeah, as a scion winner. Yeah, his team's gonna run away with
that division. And if he's even remotely healthy after he comes back, I
think you know, he also benefits from lord expectations. Yeah yeah, uh
yeah, And he was a pretty darn good picture last year. Healthy.
Um he's always been. Yeah. I I have trouble seeing that as a
possibility to be perfectly candidum perfect. But um, you know again, I
think this is a race where there I had to cut it off somewhere.
But I even had names behind this, Um, none of them were Clayton
Kersha. Nons are in the air with my palms upward in dismay and surprise,
Yeah, James the tie on. I think, do you really think
that Clayton Kersha is not the best picture alive? Yes? I think he
was for for a long time. Is it just health? Um? I
think it's health and ability. I think his fastball has degraded, and um,
you know, I think that's a tremendously hard thing to get back,
and it's caused less separation between his fastball, and it's causes carball to deteriorate
a little bit too. So you think the dipping velocity is not tied exclusively
to his injury, yes, m or it's to an injury that came.
What would you say as the over under on his fastball velocity at the end
of twenty nineteen? Over under would I guess I would probably say a little
under what he was at this year, which is I was thinking, was
that ninety or so pos has for his fast ball velocity in twenty eighteen.
Okay, Um, before that he was at ninety three point one, ninety
three point seven, ninety four point three, ninety three point six, etc.
Ninety threes, high ninety threes, though ninety four is the rest of
his career. Yeah, Um, I guess that's where I would set the
over under. I think I know where you would go with that. I
mean, I just think it's it's more fun to bet over on that,
So I would do that no matter what. Yeah, I mean, I
would dearly love you Jared, are you interested in the under on ninety one
point four? He gradually take the under? All right, so I'll put
a dollar on that. Sure, all right. I don't like being against
Clayton her show, but yeah we made it through with one prop. Yeah.
And do you want to set a minimum number of pitches for the bet
to count? Yeah? I mean I don't, but sure, let's see,
I'm trying to see what the number of pitches is here? Well,
ben Zing that ian is Clayton Kershaw the best picture on the Dodgers five hundred
pitches? Yeah? For for me? Yeah? Um? I mean is
there a world who which he could be the best picture in the Doctor?
Sure? I mean was there? But yeah? Would I pick it now?
Yeah? You're gonna pick Peeler? Yeah? John? Are you good
with the minimum five hundred pitches? Sure? Okay? Play four miles?
Yeah? Uh so his average fastball velocity in September last year it was ninety
point six, So yeah, this one okay? All right? Um that
said, so for Sion, um, I don't have a really good favorite.
Um I part of me one to say Steve was Strasburg just because it's
uh, it's fun. Yeah, it's fun, isn't it. I do
feel like there's one year where it will happen. Um, I could see
it being Chris Archer or Jameson tie On, which makes me think that's the
path to parish contention. Yeah, I guess I will go slightly off the
board and say no underguard. H Can I take the field here? Let's
see how you can call it going off the board. When you created the
board, maybe you just made a better board. Also, he was on
the board. I said, off the board of a board that I created
that he was just to follow the thought of wow, awesome. But I
don't think. I don't think he's the favorite, but I think, um,
there's I could see a scenario. Is dallas Kiko still unsigned? Dallas
ki is still unsigned. What if he signs with like one of these central
teams, like the Brewers or something, and just like it goes bananas.
It would be hard to imagine him going bananas, but I could see that
happening very clearly. Wait, it's hard to imagine him pining banas wen.
I could see the first half of it. Signing with anal central team.
Oh yeah, yeah, Okay, I think it would be a good fit.
On Saint Louis. I think it would be a good fit on Milwaukee.
Yeah, I think it would be a decent fit on the Reds,
who have been trying to sign him for a few months. I also think
he's a number four starter at this point. So but you know, those
teams could use it. Hum and n I'll work just quickly. So uh.
I have Fernando Tatis, who was announced today or yesterday when you listen
to this, will be starting the season in the major leagues. So AJ
Prewler not afraid to throw those bones. Chris Paddock who will be starting season
in major leagues, get get them extensions. J. Prowler, H.
Francisco Mihia. Are we gonna go with an all padre rookie one two three?
UM? I think Pete Alonzo does a lot of things that voters like
Nickson Zel got hurt, but he could be up very early. UM.
And then a bunch of um Atlanta pitchers M. Kyle Wright is going to
be in the rotation to start the year. I really like Bryce Wilson who's
going to be in the rotation to start the year. UM. So that's
a lot of a lot of possibilities. I don't know if anyone has any
thoughts on this. I do like a Padre to win. I'm not sure
who my favorite is going to be. I don't think it's Fernando Tattoos,
who I don't think is immediately going to break out, although certainly in spring
training he has looked great and would put that to put that's to shame.
I probably would say Chris Paddock even health. Just all in it on Chris
Paddick. Yeah, well yeah, at least for an IL Workie of the
year. I do think he could be at the margins of the cy Young
conversation. And he has a job in April, so yes, I all
in. Okay, I look forward to those all being wrong. That's the
whole point, right, Yeah, when we're celebrating the OILS championship the end
of the year, we'll just delete this podcast casually. All right, until
then, let's wrap this up. I guess, quickly, the best things
you saw this week? N I guess I'll start with you, all right.
I went to Austin this weekend for a tournament. It was fun.
We played moderately well but not amazingly. But the best thing that I saw
was the brisket from Franklin's. Before I put it in my mouth. There
was like six pounds of slice brisket that I bought, and then I also
bought vacuum sealed brisket to bring home six pounds each, one for me and
each of YouTube. So I carried something like twenty pounds of brisket into the
airport in a giant cooler. I had to check the cooler and I got
a cute little note from TSA saying they had to inspect my bag. I
don't understand why there were two ice packs, twenty pounds of brisket and two
bottles of barbecue sauce in there, but normal for a checked bag. Thank
you very much. Yeah, the brisket is delicious and amazing. Franklins is
awesome. Go there if you're ever in Austin. Yeah. Yeah, I
think I feel like there are two kinds of people in well, three kinds
of people, vegetarians, people who have not been here, and people who
would carry twenty pounds pounds of meat. You know, I did get a
bruise on my shoulder from carrying the bag because I'd like carried it on the
same spot and it was so just imagining a weight room. But so so,
the best thing I saw this week was the best thing I think a
lot of people saw this week. I watched the Seattle Oakland game two,
because who cares about the start of the season. It was all that game
too. So I watched each year's final game, which was moving in all
the right ways. We talked a little each here last week. I don't
want to labor the point, but certainly amportant player, and you know,
certain like it. Just watching him, it was made it like it took
me back to the first time I saw him, which may have been the
first baseball game that Heard and I saw together. I was trying to figure
out if that's true. But because I know exactly where I was, I
was in I was in a room in our dorm and in the blue room
in the corner. I remember watching the game. I remember the throw um
that was the first time. Yeah yeah, yeah, oh um. So
just seeing that and seeing all of love for him, you know, obviously
a lot of you experienced that as well. So um, you know,
I don't think I'm breaking new ground. A couple notes from the game,
just because I had other other than eats hero um number one um I thought,
I thought it was a good podcast. I thought Dave Fleming was and
Eduar Prez it gave way to the occasion. I think Dave Fleming probably hit
the narrative a little hard after an inning or so, but it was also
breaking news for him and I realized he had to get a lot of people
on board with each off inning, so he kind of had to restate the
obvious a lot. My favorite, my favorite line for that was when they
Tim Beckham was up and he uh. They were talking about Tim Beckham and
how good a Japan series he was having, I guess in the preseason games,
and in the first two games of season, he hits a single up
the middle and Dave Fleming says, it looks like he doesn't want to leave
Tokyo. And I was thinking, like, Matt, when you're talking about
like Tim Beckham's career, like that's a really like that's plausible. That's a
little too close to home, isn't it. I don't think he could say
that for Tim Beckham because Peop doesn't want to leave Tokyo. We can make
that happen pretty quickly, within like twelve minutes. Um. But the other
the other thing was that in the third inning, Ken Griffy Junior came a
broadcasted inning um and he was just so engaging, and it's like, oh,
yeah, that is why baseball was great in the nineties was because their
best player was like charismatic as hell, easygoing, um like funny U Ryan
Healey hit a home run or they were saying like, how did how could
you tell you know if you hit a home run, and it's like,
um, could you just tell from the sound of the bad And he was
like, uh no, I just I just waited to see if the hitter
moved, if they stayed in the box. I knew it was a home
run, and I didn't bother getting in And Ryan healely hit a home run
in the game and they were like, would you have that ball? He's
like, no, did you see a move? Like yeah, it sounds
like I need to go watch this broadcast. Yeah. I don't think,
you know, I don't think his opinions are like particularly sabre metric or anything.
But it was just like just like right exactly. It was just like
such a delight to hear him back in the game, and I kind of
wish he was more of a presence. I kind of wish more people were
like him and like each hero and what a good game if you want to
know more about the game. I also want to recommend one article by VP
alum new Fangrafs writer Rachel McDaniel on the meaning of Each Hero. It's currently
on Fangraphs. I think she is the best writer in baseball right now.
I think she's one of the best writers right now. And we are just
lucky too that she is working in baseball. Highly recommend that article if you
have not read it, but I assume most of you, coming from VP
world are aware of her work. Um. So with that, Jared,
how was your week? It was a crappy week, not my favorite week
if I'm being honest, Um, but I'm going to go back to the
meats for my best then, um, Ben, play along, don't worn
this if you know the answer here, Ben, what is a sloppy Joe?
Sloppy Joe? What are you what are you picturing? Sloppy Joe is
ground beef cooked in a sauce that keeps it from coalescing like a burger would,
but then served on a button like a burger would be served, so
that it falls all over the place when you eat it wrong. Ian,
would you have agreed with what Ben says a sloppy joe is pretty muchly to
the letter. Yes, yeah, so that's not a sloppy joe. Well,
okay, so that is a sloppy joe. But if you're in northern
New Jersey, that's not what a sloppy joe is. Sloppy joe is a
double decker sandwich on rye bread with usually something on the order three kinds of
deli meats, cole slaw, and Russian dressing. That is a sloppy joe.
And I was up in New Jersey this past weekend and one of the
few good parts of it was eating a sloppy joe. And I remember the
first time that my grandma tried to convince me that, you know, this
is what a sloppy joe's is. Like, no, Grandma, like,
I know what a sloppy joe is. It's like hammerger meat and a sauce
sort of thing. It's like, no, this is sloppy jo's what we
call it. And that's what they call it in um in New Jersey,
which is weird, but it's also super delicious. Because Deli is good in
New Jersey in a way that it's not anywhere else. But my favorite thing
that I saw this week is um I was researching Sloppy Joe's just before this,
and I went to the Wikipeda page for Sloppy Joe and then in pren
of the season New Jersey and on the because it's got its own thing,
and the fourth the fourth paragraph on the page talks about Jewish delis that featured
the Sloppy Joe in the fifties, and one of them is Carpons Deli and
Passaic, which is the restaurant that my family used to down on my grandma
side. So it was a pleasant surprise seeing that up on Wikipedia. Oh,
congratulations on making Wikipedia. Um, I hope this podcast is added as
at one day it does say citation needed on Wikipedia, and I think I
just cited it. So it's incredible. All I like that. What is
it like seventeen percent of biographies are women, but Sloppy show parentheses New Jersey
paragraphs. Great, well, there's actually five paragraphs Carpons all right, so
everywhere everyone look at that. Um, okay, anything else from y'all?
All right? Um? Another another great podcast. We'll be back soon.
Please send us your questions at score Sheet at Baseball perspectives dot com. Love
to hear from you if you've made it this far. Again, God bless
you were doing the Lord's work. But it's so many day baseball starting.
Yeah, and we'll be back next week with some baseball news. That's something
looked forward to. I hope you all enjoy opening Day. Until then,
on behalf of Ben Murphy and Jaredwis I mean Leftwitz. Thanks again and have
a great day.