WEBVTT

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Howdy and welcome to the Three True
Outcomes podcast, presented by Baseball Perspectus.

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I'm your host, Ian left Gwitz, and I am joined as always from

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suburban Michigan. It's Ben Murphy.
Ben, how are you doing? I'm

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pretty well, Ian, little bit
sleepy, but good. Otherwise that's exciting

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fatherhood, happy energy for the morning
commute, where if you're looking to me

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for inspiration, you'll be consistently disappointed. I guess that's true in general.

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Never mind model our podcast, joining
us as always our nation's capital. It's

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Jared Wise. Jared, how are
you doing? I've been better, but

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I'm happy to be here with you
guys. Thank you. Oh that's a

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better answer. That's what I should
have said. Steal it it's mine.

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I'm not stealing, and I'm giving
you credit that it's okay, all right.

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On this week's episode, we will
be a portioning credit. We will

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go through the al season preview as
only we can, you know, slightly

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worse than other season previews. We
will talk about some standing, we will

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make possibly some prop beats. I
don't know. We'll see, we'll see

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how frisky we're feeling, give some
wars, and then get out of here,

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but first I turn it over to
the mail back Captain. I think

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this might be our best question of
all time. How's it going? Well?

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We have a question, so it's
going better than last week. This

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question comes from Eric, who writes
a fun question, three true outcomes,

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home run, walk, and strike
ya, Ben, Ian, and Jared.

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Which one of you is the home
run, which one is the walk?

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And which one is the strike?
Yap? So we answered this one.

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Yeah. We wrote in our answers
separately to Eric, who tabulated the

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results and spit them back to us. I'll read them unless you guys have

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any thing you want to preface it
with. No, I'm really hoping.

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Should we go around in each give
our answers briefly? I think you should

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just read Eric's response because I think
he summarizes the answers and then Great also

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does his thing after that. Great? Sure? Okay? Um? So

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there were two votes for Ian for
Homer, two votes for Ben for Homer,

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three votes for Me for strike out, one for Ian for walk,

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and one for Ben for walk.
There are three of us. I have

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some questions because it sounds like there
were a lot of books I'm reading.

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Read this for me? I don't
know what happened here. So Eric says

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that Ben's firstinct instinct was Ian his
Homer, Ben's walk in Jared strike up,

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but thought the other two would go
with Ben Homer, Ian walk and

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Jared strike out, and that was
his final answer. But Jared and Ian

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both went with Ian Homer, Ben
walk, and Jared strike it. So

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Eric drew some conclusions from these results, and they were uh, kind of

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scared, Yeah accurate, they were, Yeah, so well, here we

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go. Eric concluded that Ben and
he and both have ego issues, but

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Ben is more willing to sublimate for
the better of the group and trying to

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match his vote to the others,
or that's what he tells himself and uses

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to convince himself to vote himself as
a Homer quote, Oh the others will

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vote me a home run. I'll
do so too to go along. Ian

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is the voice of the tto,
and with that comes the ego thinking he's

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the most important of the three.
This is common when it comes to talent,

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and Eric had that in quotes,
I don't he is both unwilling and

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unable to sublimate himself, even to
attempt to put anyone above himself out of

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a weak attempt at false modesty would
cause the entire matrix to come crashing down.

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And Jared, that's me has start
deep seated emotional, spiritual, and

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confidence issues. He most likely spend
his youth torturing small animals and planning other

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devious acts. He seems self effacing, but the Auschucks routine and soft voice

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hides something much much more sinister.
Aaron not speculate what. Judging by Ben

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and Ben's and Ian votes, they
agree yeah, and then he makes a

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joke about one of our leagues that
we're in together, right, Yeah,

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I'd figured we didn't need to go
dead and so but yes, I mean

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that's part of the thing that is
combined these three personalities into a single unit,

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and you get the kind of team
that would allow someone to overpay for

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Matt Chapman and still with themselves in
the mirror each day and the interests of

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my own safety. These were not
my conclusions, but those of John Maine,

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So thanks John appreciated. Yeah,
I mean I think when you get

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down to it, it's like it's
it's painfully obvious, right, because Ian's

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easily the home run, because he's
the best of us. I'm lazy and

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you're trying hard and missing. It's
like, so I thought about this,

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Eric, Why is that Ian's twist
here is that he was actually coming in

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from the pitcher's perspective, not the
hinder's perspective. Yeah, Eric is a

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red span so like I believe so, like maybe he thinks like home runs

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are like special just because that's all
they could hit um. And you know,

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like there's a part like walks are
just as important. Walks set up

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the offense. O BP is life. We all know walks clogged the bases

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in And the only reason that I
would say strike auser not important is uh,

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Like, it's not Terry's inherent worthlessness, it's it's this is nihilism.

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It's because it's an Orioles fan.
We all know this. Strikeouts aren't bad,

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They're part of the ecosyst they just
don't matter. Yeah, this is

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easily the best question we've ever gone. Is a pretty good question. Yeah.

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I was like I was trying to
think, like, why are all

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of my heroes like tonight for Mary
Tyler Moore, I guess it works.

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That's a good question. Would marry
Tyler more character? Would you be you

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are. I mean, it's pretty
obvious. It's so obvious. Yeah,

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I'm afraid I don't know anything about
Mary Tyler more so does that big Bed

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lu Grant? Yeah, I was
thinking somewhere between that and Sue No,

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you're right, yeah, no,
And I bet this is funnier if you

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know what the hell you guys are
talking about. Sure thing. I feel

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like we finally nailed our demographic culture
references, by the way, So can

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we talk about how Bed tried to
like Gabe theory this thing? Oh?

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Yeah, what what does what does
that mean? I feel like that means

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something. Dude. If there's anything
I'm good at, it's overthinking shit coming

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up with the same answer. I
wouldn't if I hadn't spent so long thinking

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about it, but thinking for a
while. Like when you were doing tests

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in high school or something stantarday stuff, would you come up with an answer

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and then like spend twenty minutes thinking
about why that might be wrong and put

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the wrong into the later on?
Um. I think when I came to

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standardized tests, I was pretty good
at trusting my first instinct because I have

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been like drilled into me. I
think if not for that, then yes,

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that's exactly what I would have done
there. I remember the drilling that

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into me too. I don't I
don't know why, because it's true.

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Wait, were they drilling into you
the need to be more decisive? Was

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this like classroom exercise? They like
pull you aside. You don't have a

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special Jed. You're never gonna pass
if you don't put down any answers for

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any of the questions. Anyway,
it's going to be really exciting as we

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move into the rest of his podcast
to come up with decisions that we stick

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to and put her names too for
the rest of the year. I mean,

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yeah, that's why you're the home
run and Jared's the strikeout. It's

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like, you're gonna come up with
the answers and we're just gonna ride coat

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tails. Just like math Olympia.
It's all over again. All right,

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Um you did math OLYMPIAD, I
did. I did. I was a

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very good mass tad and up until
about eighth grade and I still have like

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an incredible knowledge of like up to
ninth grade math, which serves me really

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well on the SA TSU and even
like the grys like everyone, um the

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college board thinks I am much smarter
than I am. Yeah, I don't

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anyway, but nobody remembers that math, right, It's like, no,

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no, but you are not here
about my middle school math for hours.

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I don't know quite while you're here. But it's possibly to talk about the

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American League and baseball, so we
should probably pimp it into that before we

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spend two hours reminiscing. I'm just
trying to avoid this for as long as

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possible. I know why, let's
probe into this since we are introspective.

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So we we talked about the National
League last week. For those who are

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listening, and if you haven't heard
it, go back. It is maybe

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a thrilling discussion. Maybe it's a
discussion. Who knows. You can listen

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to our thoughts then, But we're
going to talk about the more important league

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this week, and so we're going
to vote a little bit more time to

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it. And I guess, do
you guys have any top line feelings about

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the American League this year? How? How are you feeling that? In

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general? I'd be okay if there
wasn't an American League the same. My

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sense is that the American League,
for all its superiority, is going to

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be much less exciting to watch.
You know, Like in the National League,

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the thing that jumped out to me
was anything could happen basically, you

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know, obviously not exactly anything.
But in the American League, it seems

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like it's basically like Yankees and Red
Socks, Indians and Astros and you know,

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somebody else will probably make the playoffs, but it doesn't matter because they're

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not going to be as good as
those teams. Yeah, I mean,

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I definitely think it's the most likely
scenario, and as anyone from DC kind

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of understands, that's not always the
way things play out. In reality.

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I feel like probably one of those
four teams will struggle more than we expected,

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and you know, there may be
closer races than we expected, but

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certainly in April it doesn't feel that
way. Yeah, I agree. I

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mean, yeah, my head says, yeah, that's exactly it's going to

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happen. But it always it feels
like that it never plays out exactly what

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we expect. It's hard for me
to see what's going to play it differently,

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but I think something will do.
You, I know, putting you

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on spot a little bit, do
you have a team in mind that if

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you said Okay, this team is
likely to be fifth place or maybe the

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most maybe the surprise. Not really, I mean no, I it just

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no. I mean I could just
give a team to give a team,

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but I don't have any backing for
that. I guess if you've forced me

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to pick one in each division,
probably Raise, Twins and Angels. Yeah.

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I didn't want to jinx the raise, but Raise I mean yeah,

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I mean I think they're to me
pretty clearly the fifth best team. Um,

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maybe even the fourth best team,
but they in a troublesome division.

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Yeah, I mean, I'd be
curious that the Rays are playing in the

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Central with their projections would look like
I would. Yeah, I would not

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pick Cleveland to win the Sentinel Bay. Yeah, I think they're better than

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Cleveland. Um, which is you
know, it is fascinating as as an

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ostensible White Sox fan. It is
really uh. I mean, I guess

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it's heartening to be able to see
light at the end of the tunnel,

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even though your rebuild is not going
well, to be able to be like,

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oh, maybe we can win anyway. I you know, I'm sure

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you know what that feels like.
But the I'm not this is the world's

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worst drinking game. Everyone is just
going to drive off the road. But

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you know, I it's also just
like uninspiring. I do think a lot

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of the like malaise of you know
why, why it just baseball feels so

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stagnant right now is due to the
American League and just the teams being so

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stratiated that and the team's chasing kind
of being the more impoverished teams theoretically at

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least, so they just there's just
like this lack of effort on everybody's part.

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And I think we've seen a lot
of tali move into the National League.

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You know, last year was the
first time the National League won Interleague

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since Interleague existed something like that.
Yeah, it's been a while, and

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you know, I feel like even
more so this year. All Right,

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So let me as I can sort
of kind of tie this to score sheet

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I guess a little bit. But
thinking about the central in Cleveland, if

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you if you were in a scoresheet
division something like that, would you how

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much would you look at a team
like Cleveland and see they're they're on the

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downward trajectory and maybe susceptible this year? How much would that change your plans?

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Would you still just plan for your
team to be good whenever your team

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is good, or would you say, hey, you know what, like

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maybe my team's a year away from
competing really, but I can kind of

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go on in this year and make
a run out of it. It's interesting.

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It depends on your goal, right, And I think this is something

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that Ben could talk about, So
I'll head it over in a second.

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But you know, I think we
tend to be actually more like these steady

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teams that don't really put our chips
in in any given year. And you

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know, I think what it comes
down to is what your goal is that

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is it winning the division or is
it building a championship contender? And so

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I mean I think it were we
the Twins or the White Socks, it

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would be cool to knock off Cleveland
and get to the playoffs, but I

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don't think that gives us a team
that would have a prayer of competing and

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to win or make the World Series. I think there's a little bit more

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randomness in the actual Major League playoffs
than in the scoreshe playoffs because of the

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way some of the September stuff has
waited in scoresheet. So I think there's

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probably a little bit more justification in
real life to saying like, let's just

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get into the lottery and then you
know, see how far we can go.

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I do agree with you that generally
we espouse this all or nothing,

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like full rebuild, go for the
championship because flags fly forever sort of strategy,

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and then we don't really do that
very well at least haven't, you

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know, like you know, like
we haven't I think see some of the

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opportunities that were available to us to
really fully rebuild. And it's a typical

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story. But I think it's like, you know, we don't really want

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to admit to ourselves that m Evan
Longoria is not going to be part of

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a championship corp again. Or um, you know, Felix Fernandez is not

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a keeper and so you you know, you hold on to him for a

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year too long and then his values
basically expire to you and you know,

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so yeah, or that conversely that
our team is like one player away,

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we should cash in Aloy him then
as or Kyle Tucker for a player who

205
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could win us a league this year, like Clueber, is that what you're

206
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getting it? Yeah? Possibly,
although I mean maybe not Cluber specifically,

207
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but somebody like Cluber. Yeah,
just as a like I think we we

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tend to behave the way a lot
of the general managers in the AO do,

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and it is distressing to me when
I see other teams do it.

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So you know, maybe, as
Eric suggested, we should be a little

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bit more reflective. That's boy.
Yeah all right, UM, speaking of

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boring, UM, I do want
to talk about each team briefly and do

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something something like I did in the
NL last week, where focus on let's

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say, one interesting player. So
just to define the terms, I it's

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not like quite a breakout player,
I think, but it is the player

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who I am watching the most in
the early season. They are players who

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have tended to end up on our
teams for one reason or another. Um,

218
00:17:34.240 --> 00:17:40.200
and possibly like players who I have
a good feeling about. But maybe

219
00:17:40.200 --> 00:17:42.240
if they fail, we will never
talk about them again and they will go

220
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in the official Greg Bird memory hole. Oh you know, okay, not

221
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not to Greg Bird, who is
a great joke. UM nearly drafted him

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again by the end of this season. Really good and swing training. I

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like right now, I am just
like on the top of that roller coaster

224
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once again, like just going I
don't know what's coming up next, and

225
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like we we know it's coming up
next. It is straight down hill.

226
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It is a shot downward. But
like you know, maybe if he you

227
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know, um, like they moved
quite over. Maybe they bench Brett Gardner.

228
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I don't know, like the god
get some plate appearances with Greg Byrd

229
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here, you don't Yankees are great? Yeah, but all right, so

230
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I want to go west to East
for some reason and best team to worst

231
00:18:37.000 --> 00:18:42.640
team for some reason. Um,
so we'll start the where uh Houston Astros.

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Uh, you know, I don't
feel like the heastn Astros have a

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lot of like potential breakout players necessarily
a player who I've liked. He has

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an end up on any of our
teams, but you wanted them pretty badly.

235
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Brad Peacock up moved back into the
rotation. And the Astros have a

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billion pitchers, and I feel like
all of their starting pitchers are somewhat valued

237
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in score sheet, including their rookies, other than other than the ass obviously,

238
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just because I think the Astros are
one of the teams like the Dodgers

239
00:19:11.240 --> 00:19:17.559
that may just you know, Galaxy
minded themselves beyond the concerts. A starting

240
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pitcher and just they're going to have
everyone through three innings from now on.

241
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So I don't know that Brad Peacock
will hold his job even if he is

242
00:19:23.200 --> 00:19:26.359
a good starter, but I do
like him as a number three, number

243
00:19:26.359 --> 00:19:30.480
two starter. I'm also interested in
what Carlos Krea does. He's injured again.

244
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You know, I'm little concerned,
but I would like to see him

245
00:19:34.119 --> 00:19:41.079
break out of it. Los Angeles
Angels. So I have a question about

246
00:19:41.119 --> 00:19:44.880
Krea. Yeah, are you really
thinking breakoun? Are you just thinking return

247
00:19:44.960 --> 00:19:47.799
to form? Yeah? I returned
to form. I would I would say

248
00:19:47.839 --> 00:19:51.640
I'm curious as to what his next
five hundred plate appearances would be like,

249
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if that's the best way I can
define the exercise. You know, I

250
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think had he not been injured,
I think this would have been a year

251
00:20:00.759 --> 00:20:04.720
where we could have seen a jump. Now I'm starting to get a little

252
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too very worried, but you know, I'm still curious, Like I want

253
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to see him payoff obviously what he
could be Los Angeles Angels and Anaheim.

254
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Again, it's not a team with
like a ton of transition or a ton

255
00:20:18.480 --> 00:20:22.559
of breakout potential, a player who
we're just going to ride or die with

256
00:20:22.640 --> 00:20:29.759
forever is Tyler Skaggs, who,
if you recall from last year, had

257
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a two and a half a year. For the first three months it looked

258
00:20:32.720 --> 00:20:38.200
like he was finally cashing in on
everything. Got hurt immediately like just I

259
00:20:38.200 --> 00:20:41.759
don't know, spit the bit and
like bomb. The second half of the

260
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season ended up with the same yarra
he always does. I am in once

261
00:20:45.400 --> 00:20:49.680
again. I do think there is
a version of him that is like a

262
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number two starter at one point,
and we may see that season, but

263
00:20:53.599 --> 00:20:56.759
he will probably always be hurt in
a fourth starter, and maybe if he

264
00:20:56.799 --> 00:21:02.480
has another season like that, I
will finally come to a set that the

265
00:21:02.480 --> 00:21:07.920
Oakland Athletics. I think it's a
popular breakout pick, but we have really

266
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loved and put a planted a flag
in taking Ramon Loriano again, who has

267
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been terrific throughout his career with the
exception of one terrible season in the minors

268
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in Houston. You know, not
that you can exercise that necessarily, but

269
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if you, if you do,
take it out of his career, the

270
00:21:30.519 --> 00:21:34.599
rest of his career makes sense.
I think obviously even without breaking out,

271
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he's probably a two to three win
player, mostly on the defensive side.

272
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But I think Thunderbirds our go.
If that's not exciting to you. Chad

273
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Pinder is a player who we have
been targeting in a lot of leagues as

274
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well. You drafted him in the
mock draft, just pure stack cast nonsense.

275
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He just hits the ball very hard, and there's something intriguing about him.

276
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There. Seattle is another team without
like a ton of breakout potential.

277
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I guess I'm interested in You say
a Cucci, but I don't know.

278
00:22:07.519 --> 00:22:11.640
I don't really think of him as
like a breakout player. I think he's

279
00:22:11.680 --> 00:22:15.759
fine. I watched him again obviously
this week. He seemed fine. I

280
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don't know. Maybe he's better than
behind, but I haven't seen it yet.

281
00:22:21.559 --> 00:22:25.599
I'm curious to see if we give
Domingo Santana one more starting job,

282
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if he is going to just be
like the adequate, strong offense, poor

283
00:22:33.759 --> 00:22:38.279
defense, corner outfielder that I had
always expected. You know, he got

284
00:22:38.279 --> 00:22:41.720
shuttled around a little bit in Milwaukee, which ran out of room in patience

285
00:22:41.759 --> 00:22:45.799
with him. But you know,
I do think as a last chance,

286
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I think he's ended up in a
good place Texas. There are certainly some

287
00:22:52.240 --> 00:22:56.400
interesting players on the offensive side.
You know, it would be. I'm

288
00:22:56.400 --> 00:23:02.920
curious if freaked at a door can
do it again, Curious if Joey Gallo

289
00:23:03.000 --> 00:23:07.039
could take a step. But I
think that's those players are pretty obvious just

290
00:23:07.319 --> 00:23:12.480
to focus on their like rehab cases
and veteran misfit toys that they called their

291
00:23:12.519 --> 00:23:17.319
rotation. For a second, Mike
Miner hasn't one like all of our teams

292
00:23:17.319 --> 00:23:21.359
for some reason. I don't particularly
like him, but you know, he

293
00:23:21.400 --> 00:23:23.039
had a pretty good comeback year in
Kansas City. I think there's a little

294
00:23:23.079 --> 00:23:27.440
more there. He's definitely not gonna
be pressed for innings, like if he

295
00:23:27.720 --> 00:23:33.880
is ambulatory, he's gonna throw one
hundred and fifty innings, you know.

296
00:23:34.000 --> 00:23:38.440
I think there's a lot to be
said for that. I'd also like to

297
00:23:38.480 --> 00:23:42.240
call attention to Drew Smiley. I
don't know, you know, obviously he's

298
00:23:42.240 --> 00:23:47.039
missed like two seasons in the row
now, which is pretty dismal. But

299
00:23:47.480 --> 00:23:52.000
I think the Drew Smiley before he
got hurt was on the version of breakout.

300
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I don't know if any of that
is left in there, but I'm

301
00:23:56.400 --> 00:24:00.640
and from what I saw the spring
training numbers, I didn't really see that

302
00:24:00.680 --> 00:24:06.920
in there, but I'm enough to
be curious, which I guess is Texas

303
00:24:07.200 --> 00:24:15.799
entire pitching strategy sig signing the projects
In twenty eleven, see what happens u

304
00:24:15.759 --> 00:24:23.240
in the Ale Central Cleveland again not
a team with like a ton of surprises.

305
00:24:23.720 --> 00:24:27.920
No team has really changed its roster
at all, which is a sign

306
00:24:29.000 --> 00:24:33.119
for the Ale. There's like a
lot of stagnancy up and down the roster.

307
00:24:33.680 --> 00:24:37.279
Shane Bieber is a player who we
think could probably take another step forward.

308
00:24:37.200 --> 00:24:41.240
Um, I like how you say
we either that's clever. Yeah,

309
00:24:41.480 --> 00:24:44.720
I picked him up in a road
of league. I'm in all in on

310
00:24:44.759 --> 00:24:49.079
Shane Bieber. You're a believer.
Yeah, we believe, we believe.

311
00:24:49.200 --> 00:24:56.960
We don't joke about Jane Bieber.
Like that's right right now, too obvious

312
00:24:57.079 --> 00:25:08.880
and beneath us. Sure, but
yeah, you know, I think there's

313
00:25:08.920 --> 00:25:14.000
always been hope that this kind of
player, uh, this kind of this

314
00:25:14.119 --> 00:25:18.440
type of player, like the control
freak um gave a bunch of bunch of

315
00:25:18.480 --> 00:25:19.920
home runs but hopefully all solo home
runs. That's always been kind of a

316
00:25:19.960 --> 00:25:29.920
favorite version of our favorite player of
ours. Um. But you know,

317
00:25:29.960 --> 00:25:33.880
I think the thing that distinguishes Beaver
a little bit is that he actually has

318
00:25:33.880 --> 00:25:37.000
some velocity to back it up.
So it's not just like Josh Towers,

319
00:25:37.119 --> 00:25:45.559
Um like lookout situation I have,
it's Joshed twisty. I still think the

320
00:25:45.599 --> 00:25:48.720
breakout is in there somewhere. He's
about forty. It could happen. Um,

321
00:25:49.839 --> 00:25:55.839
the Minnesota Twins obviously Bayern Buxton,
Like you know, we don't have

322
00:25:56.000 --> 00:25:59.000
him in any teams. We like
aggressively got rid of him. But aren't

323
00:25:59.039 --> 00:26:02.519
you interested to see them next five
hundred bats of Byron Buckston's career. Yes,

324
00:26:02.799 --> 00:26:06.359
I feel like that will tell us
a lot. Um. Also,

325
00:26:07.599 --> 00:26:11.000
I feel like I haven't heard enough
about Michael Pineda coming back. Um.

326
00:26:11.839 --> 00:26:14.920
You know, I don't know if
everyone just got tired of him, but

327
00:26:15.720 --> 00:26:18.519
I think there's a version of Michael
Pinada that could be a very very good

328
00:26:18.559 --> 00:26:25.519
picture. I you know, he
had Tommy John surgery, which feels relatively

329
00:26:25.559 --> 00:26:29.240
standard. I haven't heard anything bad. Um, I'm curious. I like,

330
00:26:29.799 --> 00:26:32.599
I think the baseline is a mid
rotation starter. I think there's still

331
00:26:32.720 --> 00:26:37.000
upside. Maybe he's just you know, boring at this point, but I

332
00:26:37.160 --> 00:26:41.240
am I would like to see if
Minnesota can get anything out of him.

333
00:26:41.920 --> 00:26:45.799
Um. I have a theory that
Williams Studio has been overdrafted in every fantasy

334
00:26:45.880 --> 00:26:51.720
league. Yes, yes, that's
that's true. I've been watching the Twins

335
00:26:51.759 --> 00:26:55.119
a bunch lists last week. He's
fun. I get it, I get

336
00:26:55.160 --> 00:27:00.160
it. His helmet flies off all
the time. Yeah, I do want

337
00:27:00.160 --> 00:27:03.000
to pick him as a breakout pick
because he is obviously the internet's favorite child.

338
00:27:03.079 --> 00:27:07.680
Sure right, you know if you
are listening to this already, But

339
00:27:08.000 --> 00:27:12.920
yeah, at least for next year. Like I, it's hard for me

340
00:27:14.000 --> 00:27:18.480
to imagine how he'll get enough at
best to succeed, although obviously he does.

341
00:27:18.559 --> 00:27:22.440
He's going to be a top five
catcher. Yeah, so yeah,

342
00:27:22.000 --> 00:27:30.640
I guess it's a breakout. The
White Sox m everything is sad elo him

343
00:27:30.799 --> 00:27:36.680
as Yes, Um, you know, it's not like a surprising breakout,

344
00:27:36.720 --> 00:27:40.519
but I am very curious to see
if Elohim and as Ken deliver on his

345
00:27:40.599 --> 00:27:44.480
promise. I think we are relatively
high on him at this point, even

346
00:27:45.720 --> 00:27:49.359
among other people. I think scoresheet
is a reasonably good format for him,

347
00:27:49.480 --> 00:27:56.119
although he as a right handed outfielder
without a lot of defense like kind of

348
00:27:56.200 --> 00:28:02.880
limits is overall upside. But um, you know, with as a player

349
00:28:02.960 --> 00:28:04.480
in a good ball park without a
lot of defense. I think score she'd

350
00:28:04.480 --> 00:28:11.960
also catch us downside a little bit. And I don't know, like Lucas

351
00:28:12.039 --> 00:28:15.759
Giolito is throwing harder in spring training, and I don't know what to do

352
00:28:15.880 --> 00:28:22.599
with that. I'm just gonna note
it. I've never seen him pitch well,

353
00:28:25.039 --> 00:28:32.000
so that would be nice. I
guess it's interesting, like I've been

354
00:28:32.079 --> 00:28:36.640
hearing all spring training about Martine Perez
breakout. For instance, he's throwing a

355
00:28:36.680 --> 00:28:40.200
few miles per hour harder if he
missed it as well. And then I

356
00:28:40.359 --> 00:28:44.480
just watched him and it's like four
walks, four strikeouts, a bunch of

357
00:28:44.599 --> 00:28:51.759
runs. I know that's Martine Paris. I don't mean this to imply anything,

358
00:28:51.799 --> 00:28:55.160
but do we have a sense for
how players that are sort of the

359
00:28:55.240 --> 00:29:00.640
mid career, especially pitchers, I
guess, are able to improve such a

360
00:29:00.759 --> 00:29:06.359
rock component of performance like velocity um. Well, with Paris, what they

361
00:29:06.400 --> 00:29:11.079
were saying was a lot of it
was hip rotation um that they felt like

362
00:29:11.160 --> 00:29:15.200
he was a little too staff and
they were able to diagnose it because they

363
00:29:15.359 --> 00:29:23.000
brought like, you know, like
video equipment for the first time. And

364
00:29:23.519 --> 00:29:30.359
right we're in a position where it's
like every change could be real because that's

365
00:29:30.440 --> 00:29:33.359
what twenty eighteens in baseball, It's
like, yeah, we you know,

366
00:29:33.400 --> 00:29:40.480
if someone's like some like discount hitting
true coach like pulled up like a truck

367
00:29:40.960 --> 00:29:44.279
and in that truck was like video
of how a player was doing badly and

368
00:29:44.319 --> 00:29:47.039
then there was like a radio active
serum and he got bit by a spider.

369
00:29:47.079 --> 00:29:52.680
I don't know, like every story
about a player's um break out potential,

370
00:29:52.759 --> 00:29:55.400
I'm like, yeah, I guess, I guess that's true. Now

371
00:29:56.279 --> 00:30:03.839
Max Munsey's good, so anything could
happen. Uh. So I don't know.

372
00:30:03.559 --> 00:30:07.559
Uh, it's a strange time to
be a fan. UM. You

373
00:30:07.680 --> 00:30:11.359
know, I think everyone is just
kind of relying on uh, you know,

374
00:30:11.440 --> 00:30:19.240
maybe technology will save us. UM
in Detroit, Uh, you know,

375
00:30:19.519 --> 00:30:23.000
that's a that's a rough team.
M there's not a lot of excitements,

376
00:30:23.039 --> 00:30:30.160
but I'm there in the Greater Michigan
area. UM, I am interested

377
00:30:30.200 --> 00:30:36.079
to see if Jamber Candelaria can get
his hitting. Uh. I don't want

378
00:30:36.079 --> 00:30:38.960
to say back. You know,
he I always liked his bat in the

379
00:30:40.039 --> 00:30:42.960
miners um, but he's always a
little older his levels. This could just

380
00:30:44.039 --> 00:30:48.200
be who he is. I think
there's maybe potential for a breakout and there's

381
00:30:48.200 --> 00:30:52.519
not a lot else that's super exciting
there. So I will be watching him

382
00:30:52.640 --> 00:31:00.440
when I watch the Tigers, which
will be extremely extremely infrequently. Casey actually

383
00:31:00.480 --> 00:31:04.400
has a bunch of interesting players,
none of which are the fast guys.

384
00:31:04.480 --> 00:31:10.240
Really, that's I don't know,
have you been hearing about like, well,

385
00:31:10.519 --> 00:31:12.119
you know Casey's They're not gonna be
any good, but at least they'll

386
00:31:12.160 --> 00:31:17.599
be fun. Yeah, it's like
it is. I don't know, do

387
00:31:17.680 --> 00:31:22.839
I watch the game differently? Is
like two eighty on base outfielders who like

388
00:31:25.079 --> 00:31:26.839
dance off first base a lot?
Is that fun? Or like, were

389
00:31:26.920 --> 00:31:30.440
we missing that from the game?
I don't know, Like a lot of

390
00:31:30.519 --> 00:31:36.000
steels can be fun. I guess
I've never found like the running game that

391
00:31:36.359 --> 00:31:40.680
it's not my favorite part of baseball
for sure, and like throws over to

392
00:31:40.759 --> 00:31:44.200
first start like my single least favorite
part of baseball. Yeah that's fair.

393
00:31:45.079 --> 00:31:48.759
Um, well that's because you're the
home run you don't care about. I'm

394
00:31:48.799 --> 00:31:57.400
based off it's just tea. Yeah, that's that's fair. Uh And whereas

395
00:31:57.440 --> 00:32:05.759
you're you play the game the right
way? Okay, absolutely, But the

396
00:32:05.839 --> 00:32:08.839
one fast guy who I guess I'm
interested in, um, you know,

397
00:32:08.960 --> 00:32:14.680
I was not a believer or not
old vertime honesty. I'm still probably more

398
00:32:14.759 --> 00:32:20.200
on the skeptical side, but I
think given the darth of exciting options to

399
00:32:20.319 --> 00:32:25.039
pick from, I think he's obviously
the player who will dictate the future of

400
00:32:25.119 --> 00:32:30.160
Kansas City the most in the next
you know, over the next season,

401
00:32:30.559 --> 00:32:35.720
like if he becomes a star,
which I guess it is possible, right

402
00:32:35.759 --> 00:32:38.920
if the power comes around. Yeah, Like, even without plate discipline,

403
00:32:39.079 --> 00:32:42.880
you can see a version of him
that's very exciting in the way that Hobby

404
00:32:42.960 --> 00:32:49.440
er bay As was last year.
And you know, maybe that's something to

405
00:32:49.640 --> 00:32:53.359
build around or get excited by and
doesn't take much. I mean, we'll

406
00:32:53.359 --> 00:32:55.960
get to a team that doesn't have
it in a second, but um,

407
00:32:58.400 --> 00:33:01.880
before that. Moving to the East, so the New York Yankees are there,

408
00:33:02.039 --> 00:33:06.319
The New York Yankees are gonna be
fun as heck, no, we

409
00:33:06.440 --> 00:33:09.119
should just accept that. I don't
feel like they have a ton of breakout

410
00:33:09.160 --> 00:33:13.599
players. They just have a lot
of players who are like really good and

411
00:33:14.000 --> 00:33:22.200
exciting and fun and hit the ball
extremely far. And the world was a

412
00:33:22.240 --> 00:33:25.200
better place when the Yankees were mediocre, yeah and old, right, and

413
00:33:25.319 --> 00:33:29.359
now they're just like young and all
the players are fun. It happened so

414
00:33:29.599 --> 00:33:31.920
fast, Like I feel like,
maybe it's just because I wasn't paying attention,

415
00:33:31.960 --> 00:33:38.519
but I feel like we like smash
cut from the old mediocre and Yankees

416
00:33:38.599 --> 00:33:42.680
to the young, the fun Yankees. I'm like, I guess, I

417
00:33:42.839 --> 00:33:46.839
guess these guys are fun to watch. Like yeah, it felt like for

418
00:33:47.039 --> 00:33:52.880
a decade it was like the end
of Mark to SHARE's career, just like

419
00:33:52.359 --> 00:33:54.440
steadily schooling out before us. And
then all of a sudden, it's like,

420
00:33:54.599 --> 00:33:58.359
oh, everyone's twenty three and they
hit the ball like a mile and

421
00:33:58.400 --> 00:34:02.319
a half. I okay, great, So I look forward to getting wanted

422
00:34:02.400 --> 00:34:07.519
by Yankee Stadium security for half an
hour, um several times this year because

423
00:34:08.239 --> 00:34:13.719
you know, make the track up
to Yankee Stadium where customer service is an

424
00:34:13.760 --> 00:34:23.039
option. Just they do have like
the least the worst customer service in baseball.

425
00:34:23.119 --> 00:34:25.719
Some somebody needs to say it.
It's just like a bad experience to

426
00:34:25.760 --> 00:34:30.239
go to Yankee Stadium. Um,
But you know, I guess at least

427
00:34:30.280 --> 00:34:34.679
the team will be exciting when you're
listening to Cotton I Joe for the eight

428
00:34:34.800 --> 00:34:40.920
hundredth time, like update your okay
next next week? Stocking the Yankee Stadium

429
00:34:42.599 --> 00:34:47.920
experience. I have notes when I
go to a game nexst I will I

430
00:34:49.039 --> 00:34:52.599
will take note if they have actually
changed anything. Um. But as for

431
00:34:52.800 --> 00:34:57.559
players breakout players, UM, I
want to go a little off track.

432
00:34:57.599 --> 00:35:00.639
I mean, obviously, like labor
tours will be fun and Eric Judge will

433
00:35:00.639 --> 00:35:04.800
be fun, It'll be interesting.
Ce Floyd will come back and you know,

434
00:35:04.880 --> 00:35:09.960
Abe, we'll hear something out of
Greg bird who but uh, you

435
00:35:10.039 --> 00:35:17.079
know, CC Sabathia's condition and some
of the injuries will lead to a couple

436
00:35:17.079 --> 00:35:22.400
of rotation spots. Johnson Lowizaca is
getting a lot of play in the early

437
00:35:22.480 --> 00:35:25.320
going. I think he's an interesting
breakout. I did want to flag Domingo

438
00:35:25.400 --> 00:35:30.920
Harman. Maybe there's nothing there,
but you know there, I could also

439
00:35:31.039 --> 00:35:36.719
see him breaking out a little bit
and it would kind of be the old

440
00:35:36.760 --> 00:35:42.320
standard way of like getting your control
together a little bit. But I've always

441
00:35:42.360 --> 00:35:45.920
liked him. I feel like he
has some, um like the bare bones

442
00:35:46.000 --> 00:35:50.159
of a player who could be more
interesting. And if not, you know,

443
00:35:50.239 --> 00:35:55.199
he'll be the eight thousandth flamethrower in
the bullpen. So run me through

444
00:35:55.199 --> 00:35:59.800
a scenario where the ink he has
been fewer than ninety five games. It's

445
00:36:00.199 --> 00:36:06.440
really really a challenge. Um,
I think I think you could see a

446
00:36:06.519 --> 00:36:12.159
way. I think you are predicting
break or breakouts or steadiness for a lot

447
00:36:12.239 --> 00:36:15.760
of players and who are you know, obviously on a step. But let's

448
00:36:15.800 --> 00:36:23.920
say glabor tours crashes you know,
um if I mean injuries could derail anybody's

449
00:36:23.920 --> 00:36:28.159
season. Yeah, sure, but
I mean you have to be a lot

450
00:36:28.239 --> 00:36:31.440
like looking over the rest all right, I mean they don't even need glabor

451
00:36:31.519 --> 00:36:37.000
tours. Yeah, they have deta
like they right, they have actual like

452
00:36:37.320 --> 00:36:44.840
starts on the Yankees. Now,
oh my gosh, there's there's your twenty

453
00:36:45.119 --> 00:36:52.480
nineteen AO previous on the Yankees.
Like a utility rule. Yeah, they're

454
00:36:52.519 --> 00:36:57.719
like, maybe we'll squeeze him into
first base occasionally. Like you just it's

455
00:36:58.039 --> 00:37:01.599
like it's like you go to Costco
and you have a Costco card after not

456
00:37:01.719 --> 00:37:05.199
having one for a while, and
then you're like, why do we have

457
00:37:05.480 --> 00:37:09.800
thirty six cancer tuna. I mean
that's the thing. Like, if they

458
00:37:09.960 --> 00:37:14.320
sustained two major injuries to the hitters
and two major injuries to start of pitchers,

459
00:37:14.320 --> 00:37:16.119
I think they're still fine. Yeah, yeah, but they might not

460
00:37:16.159 --> 00:37:22.320
win ninety five. I think they
still would It's really true, Like they

461
00:37:22.760 --> 00:37:24.280
you know, they are down a
couple of starters, and I'm like,

462
00:37:24.639 --> 00:37:30.920
they could probably lose all their starters
and just throw bullpen games and be fine.

463
00:37:30.079 --> 00:37:34.679
That's the kind of scoresy team I
want to have. Honestly, Like,

464
00:37:35.280 --> 00:37:37.719
you guys already know this. You
guys already know this because I've been

465
00:37:37.760 --> 00:37:42.000
talking about this since we were in
Wasserman together back in the day. It

466
00:37:42.159 --> 00:37:45.519
was just like that was back when
and I tried to build that team.

467
00:37:45.880 --> 00:37:50.079
That was back before we were running
teams together. But it's just so much

468
00:37:50.159 --> 00:37:52.119
more fun that way. It's like
there's a certain excitement, so like,

469
00:37:52.920 --> 00:38:01.039
can I win this like fourteen to
thirteen baseball game? We'll get there.

470
00:38:02.280 --> 00:38:07.760
They are running your dream Scoreshee team. Though it is it is sad.

471
00:38:07.840 --> 00:38:14.039
It's just sad all around good Yankees
fun. Everything is bad. Um moving

472
00:38:14.079 --> 00:38:21.280
on to everything being bad Boston Red
Sox again, Like, I don't think

473
00:38:21.280 --> 00:38:27.960
they need breakout players. Um,
I feel like I'm higher in Raphael Devers

474
00:38:28.000 --> 00:38:30.119
than consensus. He's like he was
like twenty one last year, right,

475
00:38:30.159 --> 00:38:35.719
everyone realizes that. And I guess
you saw like the downside to him.

476
00:38:35.880 --> 00:38:37.880
You know, maybe he's not gonna
get on base enough. You know,

477
00:38:37.880 --> 00:38:42.159
if he doesn't play defense well enough, he's gonna get moved over to first

478
00:38:42.280 --> 00:38:45.559
or to another team. And like
there's definitely there's definitely a path where he

479
00:38:45.639 --> 00:38:49.760
like crashes out of baseball. But
um, you know, I think he

480
00:38:49.840 --> 00:38:52.239
can also really just hit the snot
out of the ball and maybe there's a

481
00:38:52.360 --> 00:38:57.679
version of him that is a star
and maybe it starts this year. Um.

482
00:38:58.360 --> 00:39:00.679
He also entered up with Jackie Bradley
jun year number teams. Um.

483
00:39:01.119 --> 00:39:07.000
I again, maybe I do feel
like there's one season where Jackie Bradley junior

484
00:39:07.239 --> 00:39:10.159
and he's older than he's like twenty
nine now right or thirty. Um,

485
00:39:10.639 --> 00:39:15.639
but I do feel like there's one
season where he's just gonna put together every

486
00:39:15.639 --> 00:39:22.599
trait that he is flashed and then
still trying to defend from. No,

487
00:39:22.800 --> 00:39:28.559
he's he's gone higher than that since
then. We drafted him in the sixth

488
00:39:28.679 --> 00:39:32.840
round like six years ago, and
we were proven right over time. I

489
00:39:32.960 --> 00:39:36.480
think we were the ones that drafted
him earlier a few of those times.

490
00:39:39.159 --> 00:39:45.159
But um, yeah, no,
I think he's shown every like there might

491
00:39:45.199 --> 00:39:47.360
be a Jacoby Ells for a twenty
eleven, maybe not to that degree,

492
00:39:47.440 --> 00:39:51.840
but like he has a lot of
different tools and you can see them all

493
00:39:51.880 --> 00:39:57.880
come together. Um, Tampa the
San Diego of the South. San Diego

494
00:39:57.960 --> 00:40:01.800
is also of the South Southeast Ale
then San Diego the AO landed on it.

495
00:40:01.880 --> 00:40:08.960
Everyone's interesting. They have a lot
of fun. Like the Yankees could

496
00:40:09.039 --> 00:40:14.400
get could have like two injuries and
still win ninety five games. Tampa could

497
00:40:14.400 --> 00:40:17.039
suffer like seven injuries and still have
essentially the same eighty four win team.

498
00:40:19.800 --> 00:40:22.679
It's like a different talent. I
don't know if it's exciting. It's like

499
00:40:22.719 --> 00:40:32.559
a strange party track. We leave
the universe and to win players. But

500
00:40:34.639 --> 00:40:37.320
um, you know, obviously they've
like amortized their team, and you know

501
00:40:37.360 --> 00:40:43.480
they have like nine or ten players
that could be like interesting breakouts. I

502
00:40:45.440 --> 00:40:47.639
would highlight of them. I think
the one I'm most interested in right at

503
00:40:47.679 --> 00:40:57.360
first is Brandon Law of the recent
extension. You know, is just if

504
00:40:57.400 --> 00:41:00.199
you PLoP them at second or PLoP
at first, is there a twenty five

505
00:41:00.239 --> 00:41:05.679
home run bat in there early on? But you know, could be a

506
00:41:05.760 --> 00:41:08.880
billion player, could be Tyler Glass
now, could be Awesome Meadows, maybe

507
00:41:08.960 --> 00:41:14.000
Tommy Fantasy MVP candidate. We'll get
to that, you know, is it

508
00:41:14.119 --> 00:41:17.960
Kevin Kermeyer coming back just every every
like everyone could be good and maybe everyone

509
00:41:19.000 --> 00:41:23.320
will just be a two win player. So I have a question about this

510
00:41:23.360 --> 00:41:29.760
because I think it's like one of
the oldest tenants of like analytics in terms

511
00:41:29.800 --> 00:41:34.119
of team building, that stars and
scrubs is easier to upgrade than like,

512
00:41:34.679 --> 00:41:40.559
you know, a plethora of mediocre
players mediocrity. And the Rays are obviously

513
00:41:40.679 --> 00:41:45.840
a smart group of folks, especially
in the front office. What do you

514
00:41:46.039 --> 00:41:52.199
think is there like pitch around this
approach, Like what is the strategy like

515
00:41:52.280 --> 00:41:58.599
when they are like drawing up the
game plan, you know, how do

516
00:41:58.760 --> 00:42:02.519
you think they're thinking about, like
their route to success, given you know,

517
00:42:02.599 --> 00:42:07.280
a roster of like you said,
two win players. I mean,

518
00:42:07.360 --> 00:42:13.320
it's interesting. I guess they have
tried to seek out players with higher variants.

519
00:42:13.400 --> 00:42:16.280
It's I think why they traded for
fam It's why they traded for Austin

520
00:42:16.360 --> 00:42:28.440
Meadows and you know Tyler Glass.
Now, so maybe that's part of it.

521
00:42:28.760 --> 00:42:30.559
Like the other thing is they didn't
come from like, well, we

522
00:42:30.599 --> 00:42:37.519
don't want any stars. I think
they have turned a bunch of potential zero

523
00:42:37.599 --> 00:42:42.760
win players into two win players through
player development and so in that sense.

524
00:42:43.239 --> 00:42:46.039
You know, maybe they will be
able to trade four for one and get

525
00:42:46.079 --> 00:42:51.079
a star that way. Yeah,
I mean I think money is part of

526
00:42:51.119 --> 00:42:52.679
it, right, they that's just
how they had a constructive team that I

527
00:42:52.719 --> 00:42:57.760
think. You know, I think
it's not illogical to have a scenario where,

528
00:42:58.119 --> 00:43:00.039
you know, having no holes.
That is pretty important too, to

529
00:43:00.239 --> 00:43:07.360
have nobody with negative or zero war
going on, and then you I'm just

530
00:43:07.440 --> 00:43:12.480
disappointed that Toronto is coming up next
because like the perfect seguay, but okay,

531
00:43:12.719 --> 00:43:15.159
and then maybe look into a season
or one or two you guys has

532
00:43:15.320 --> 00:43:19.840
a fluky or breakout year, you
know, Yeah, that makes sense.

533
00:43:22.039 --> 00:43:27.199
Yeah, it's interesting, And like
I think the most likely scenario is they

534
00:43:27.800 --> 00:43:30.280
missed the playoffs by ten games.
Yeah, but I can see them pushing

535
00:43:30.320 --> 00:43:37.320
Austin. It's harder for me to
see them pushing the Yankees, right,

536
00:43:37.360 --> 00:43:39.800
you just have right, I think
it's what you were saying, You just

537
00:43:39.880 --> 00:43:46.119
have to get into the playoffs somehow
I figure out what's doing from there.

538
00:43:46.760 --> 00:43:55.639
Yeah, and it's an exciting challenge. So yeah, I think there'll be

539
00:43:55.719 --> 00:43:59.800
one of the teams I will be
watching the most in the early going until

540
00:43:59.840 --> 00:44:05.360
I understand better what they are Toronto
is also like sneaky, a little more

541
00:44:05.400 --> 00:44:07.519
fun than you would expect. Obviously, they will get a lot more fun

542
00:44:07.840 --> 00:44:16.519
in three weeks where Vladimir Carr Junior
becomes a major leaguer magically has developed enough

543
00:44:16.639 --> 00:44:24.760
to be major league college burer after
the Super two deadline. I just think,

544
00:44:24.880 --> 00:44:28.519
like when he had the oblique injury
in spring training, there must have

545
00:44:28.559 --> 00:44:34.639
been someone who did, like the
like Jerry McGuire elbow yes to themselves and

546
00:44:37.079 --> 00:44:38.599
we were like no, I mean, he was perfect the whole time.

547
00:44:38.679 --> 00:44:45.719
We just thought the injury and all. But you know, they're about to

548
00:44:45.760 --> 00:44:50.079
get very fun on the roster right
now. I don't think they are like

549
00:44:50.159 --> 00:44:54.039
a ton of, like again,
exciting breakout players. We talked about this

550
00:44:54.119 --> 00:44:59.199
Dre in the Mock Draft podcast.
I think Danny Jansen, it will has

551
00:44:59.280 --> 00:45:04.840
the starting job. Um. I
don't know that he's a breakout player so

552
00:45:05.000 --> 00:45:07.960
much as a good player who will
have a starting job for the first time.

553
00:45:07.800 --> 00:45:10.679
Um. But I am curious to
see if there is even more in

554
00:45:10.760 --> 00:45:15.719
there then um we might think.
And I feel like even the downside,

555
00:45:15.760 --> 00:45:22.000
like catcher is such a nightmare,
Like if he's just a typical starting catcher,

556
00:45:22.960 --> 00:45:27.599
Yeah, that's fine too. Um
so there's one team left that was

557
00:45:27.639 --> 00:45:30.119
like a great um rap around.
I think we did a good job.

558
00:45:30.400 --> 00:45:35.519
That's how heartbreaking appreciate it. We
covered all the useful teams. Yeah,

559
00:45:37.000 --> 00:45:44.559
so I don't know how to approach
this season preview. UM. Last week

560
00:45:44.679 --> 00:45:51.639
on fangrafts dot com, Uh,
they uh, they did a season preview

561
00:45:51.760 --> 00:45:54.480
of their own where instead of going
by team, they went by position and

562
00:45:54.760 --> 00:46:02.559
ranked all the teams placed in the
depth charts. Um. I had trouble

563
00:46:02.599 --> 00:46:07.559
finding the Baltimore Orioles in these rankings. Is maybe you need a new prescription?

564
00:46:07.960 --> 00:46:12.079
Yeah, just because you know,
you like reading article in the long

565
00:46:12.199 --> 00:46:14.440
article and it's sometimes hard to scroll
all the way to about it and I

566
00:46:14.559 --> 00:46:20.119
probably just missed them somewhere in the
middle. Yes, but um boy,

567
00:46:20.159 --> 00:46:27.639
would you line it up? What
was there was like one position where they

568
00:46:27.679 --> 00:46:30.960
were twenty six? Right? Was
that left field? Yes? Maybe where

569
00:46:30.960 --> 00:46:36.000
they were wearing twenty six And that
was like the high water. It was

570
00:46:36.519 --> 00:46:43.760
like they should have held a parade
that day. They're consistent. That's what

571
00:46:43.920 --> 00:46:50.000
you want in a team, right, Consistency More thirties than the end of

572
00:46:50.159 --> 00:47:00.239
draft copy in a newspaper article.
Oh boy, it was just uh is

573
00:47:00.280 --> 00:47:05.440
a oh my god. I was
looking at that and going, I don't

574
00:47:05.480 --> 00:47:12.079
know if I can watch this team
once a month, So you're having to

575
00:47:12.159 --> 00:47:15.360
do it once a day. Yeah, so you're gonna watch the team every

576
00:47:15.440 --> 00:47:19.039
day? Yeah, just turn on
the team and go, I wonder what

577
00:47:19.159 --> 00:47:22.840
these players are up to. Yeah, it's exciting, it's gonna be fun.

578
00:47:27.920 --> 00:47:31.559
So, Jared, I'm gonna turn
over to you, which player are

579
00:47:31.639 --> 00:47:37.159
you most excited by to watch an
opening day? How do you limit it

580
00:47:37.239 --> 00:47:45.480
to just one opening day? I
mean obviously opening day starter and yourew Cashner's

581
00:47:45.199 --> 00:47:50.599
gonna be exciting, um, but
not there you want him to be.

582
00:47:50.760 --> 00:47:57.360
Probably, I'm fascinated about what happens
with Chris Davis. Yeah, what's I

583
00:47:57.400 --> 00:48:00.000
mean, what's his strike at rate
at which they could bait on him,

584
00:48:00.039 --> 00:48:04.039
like sixty percent? There's got to
be a number where they're like, no,

585
00:48:04.280 --> 00:48:07.760
you're calling it, but I don't
know what that number is. Just

586
00:48:07.880 --> 00:48:15.400
to see him approach infinite strikeouts like
yeah, like the Alan Shepherd, just

587
00:48:16.119 --> 00:48:22.400
pour off it, just like right, breaking like breaking the space bear,

588
00:48:22.599 --> 00:48:27.920
just like, okay, this is
exciting you slt me on that. But

589
00:48:28.079 --> 00:48:30.079
no, I mean it's stop.
Like I don't want to say you see

590
00:48:30.119 --> 00:48:32.400
something like Richie Martin, which I
guess, but on any other team,

591
00:48:32.440 --> 00:48:37.719
he's like a backup utility guy.
I don't any other team, I'm sorry

592
00:48:37.760 --> 00:48:47.119
to say backup utility guy is extremely
generous. You gotta give me something here,

593
00:48:47.159 --> 00:48:51.800
you I don't know. I mean, it's it's almost it's almost impressive.

594
00:48:51.880 --> 00:48:58.280
How uninspiring to a t Yeah.
Um, Like, it's not just

595
00:48:58.480 --> 00:49:06.119
that they're bad, it's that there's
like no hope anywhere. Um, Like

596
00:49:06.559 --> 00:49:08.159
I could see a scenario like I
was starting to think, what is the

597
00:49:08.199 --> 00:49:13.639
most optimistic scenario for the Orioles.
It's like, okay, well we know

598
00:49:13.920 --> 00:49:17.599
all these players never like never got
any professional minor league development, right,

599
00:49:20.159 --> 00:49:24.199
so maybe they'll learn that, Like
maybe that's good for the pictures. Maybe

600
00:49:24.239 --> 00:49:28.480
there's a way that Dylan Bundy breaks
out and they show him like, oh,

601
00:49:28.559 --> 00:49:37.199
you've been pitching wrong, Like,
oh so I have. I think

602
00:49:37.239 --> 00:49:39.960
he just gets traded, right,
that's just like it. Oh yeah,

603
00:49:40.000 --> 00:49:43.159
if he's any good at all,
he's gonna get traded. The media.

604
00:49:43.880 --> 00:49:49.639
Um, I put in Austin Hayes
as name there. He's not even on

605
00:49:49.719 --> 00:49:55.599
the opening date your roster anyw r
M. I don't know. He was

606
00:49:55.639 --> 00:50:00.559
so bad last year. I guess
he could be. Okay, it's it's

607
00:50:00.599 --> 00:50:06.280
a nightmare. It is just they
are like I've been making a lot of

608
00:50:06.320 --> 00:50:09.719
oriole jokes um over the years,
and then you just sit down with a

609
00:50:09.760 --> 00:50:14.239
team and you're like, oh,
this is so much worse, and I

610
00:50:14.400 --> 00:50:22.079
imagine this is horrible team. So
I heard this question somewhere else off here

611
00:50:22.119 --> 00:50:27.800
I'm stealing from. But who's the
it was All Star that's here? Or

612
00:50:27.840 --> 00:50:34.239
are they going to change the rules
put on the like uh, who would

613
00:50:34.280 --> 00:50:43.360
you put on like the Meebia guide? Um? Yeah, yeah, um,

614
00:50:43.920 --> 00:50:45.679
you know the All Star is going
to be I assume Michael Gibbons,

615
00:50:45.840 --> 00:50:51.039
right, sure, because it's like
they went and down pick the terrible closer

616
00:50:51.639 --> 00:50:57.239
rule. Sure. I mean,
but he's gonna have like two saves because

617
00:50:57.280 --> 00:51:00.320
there wasn't gonna win any games by
the All Star break. So yeah,

618
00:51:00.760 --> 00:51:04.480
I think he will also potentially be
genuinely the best player on the team in

619
00:51:04.679 --> 00:51:10.039
terms of war as a wand an
encloser mitigate the amount of damage he can.

620
00:51:12.920 --> 00:51:21.280
Yeah, so okay, how many
wins are you predicting for the Orioles

621
00:51:21.320 --> 00:51:24.239
this year. We haven't really I
don't want to put you on spot here,

622
00:51:24.360 --> 00:51:31.519
but Jared doesn't really do that.
Yeah, he just expects them to

623
00:51:31.599 --> 00:51:36.719
win. Yeah. I'm trying to
like, at what point you would take

624
00:51:36.760 --> 00:51:45.679
the over, like sixty right,
The Pakoda has him at fifty eight Hard

625
00:51:45.760 --> 00:51:55.079
on dround fifty eight right, Yeah. Man Graphs has him at sixty two.

626
00:51:55.840 --> 00:52:01.639
CBS Sports has him at fifty six
under under under it's just it's hard.

627
00:52:05.519 --> 00:52:09.079
Champ has him at sixty three.
I don't I don't know. It's

628
00:52:09.880 --> 00:52:13.519
so part of me says that they're
going to be sneaky good this year because

629
00:52:13.559 --> 00:52:15.719
I have to say that. I'm
you know, I don't know how it's

630
00:52:15.719 --> 00:52:19.800
gonna be. I've seen everybody doesn't
have to say that. You don't you

631
00:52:19.840 --> 00:52:22.480
don't like to say that. I
mean, well, what the reason gonna

632
00:52:22.480 --> 00:52:24.960
happen is They're they're gonna avoid getting
the number one draft pick next year.

633
00:52:25.559 --> 00:52:30.679
Somehow that's gonna happen. So if
that means they have to win sixty three

634
00:52:30.760 --> 00:52:34.519
games, fine, so be it. That's what's gonna happen. But it's

635
00:52:34.559 --> 00:52:37.360
hard to like, look at go
down to the individual player. Leven build

636
00:52:37.440 --> 00:52:38.639
some sort of modere like looking at
the individual player. How is this team

637
00:52:38.679 --> 00:52:42.280
going to win sixty games? You
can't. I don't see how you can

638
00:52:42.360 --> 00:52:45.320
do that. Oh my god,
I watched Josh Rogers in spring training.

639
00:52:45.920 --> 00:52:50.800
Yep. Oh, like it's not
like there's hope coming from the minors.

640
00:52:53.480 --> 00:53:00.119
Yeah, it's not like they've been
like sitting on better players helping. These

641
00:53:00.159 --> 00:53:04.199
are just like it's bad in them. The os opening day rotation, it's

642
00:53:04.280 --> 00:53:07.880
injucasher in game one, Game two
is a bullpen game, and three,

643
00:53:07.960 --> 00:53:17.679
four and five our question marks.
Really yeah, that's amazing. Oh that's

644
00:53:19.519 --> 00:53:25.840
that's that's not great. Yeah,
okay, so look forward to that being

645
00:53:25.880 --> 00:53:31.559
a running theme of this podcast for
the season. Um, all right,

646
00:53:31.639 --> 00:53:35.079
so that's that's all. I feel
like, in the interest of time,

647
00:53:35.119 --> 00:53:38.480
maybe we should just do some awards
and maybe just if we want to,

648
00:53:39.400 --> 00:53:46.599
um, come up with our playoff
teams and award winners for the season.

649
00:53:49.880 --> 00:53:55.079
So, uh, we didn't do
playoff teams in the anal, but um

650
00:53:58.119 --> 00:54:02.000
where it's actually tricky, right,
where it's actually interesting. So maybe maybe

651
00:54:02.000 --> 00:54:07.800
we'll warm up at the ale because
I think we have four plants. Like

652
00:54:07.159 --> 00:54:12.599
okay, So my thought on these
season preview things. By the way,

653
00:54:13.079 --> 00:54:17.400
um is that they're all done incorrectly
because it's done like which team do you

654
00:54:17.480 --> 00:54:22.239
predict to win the division? Which
is a dumb question. The question should

655
00:54:22.239 --> 00:54:24.039
be like what are the odds of
each team winning the division? At least

656
00:54:24.079 --> 00:54:30.719
in a like the saber metric type
location that said, I don't really have

657
00:54:30.760 --> 00:54:32.840
the time or interest to do that, so we're going to do it the

658
00:54:32.880 --> 00:54:40.280
easy way. Great, but um, there are definitely places that have um

659
00:54:42.320 --> 00:54:45.800
projected that sort of information. Yeah. I think it's I think it's more

660
00:54:45.880 --> 00:54:50.400
fun because it's like that's when it's
like, oh, twenty seven out of

661
00:54:50.400 --> 00:54:52.159
twenty seven people pick the Astros to
win the division, but look at the

662
00:54:52.199 --> 00:54:55.840
Angels. I guess nobody knows anything. It's like okay, yeah, but

663
00:54:57.920 --> 00:55:02.599
like you should pick the Astros.
Yeah. Like it's not saying that the

664
00:55:02.800 --> 00:55:07.199
Astrois were like a deadlock because twenty
seven out of twenty seven people picked them

665
00:55:07.199 --> 00:55:09.719
the first place. It's just like
they're obviously the best team. Yeah.

666
00:55:09.880 --> 00:55:15.159
Yeah. Um, so I feel
like you lose sort of gradation. I

667
00:55:15.239 --> 00:55:19.320
feel like you lose like which teams
you think are likely to break out or

668
00:55:19.400 --> 00:55:22.000
interesting. It's tough to plant a
flag and still seem like a sane person.

669
00:55:23.239 --> 00:55:25.079
But that said, we're gonna do
it the easy way. So,

670
00:55:27.719 --> 00:55:31.119
um So in the Al we have
the Yankees in the East. I'm gonna

671
00:55:31.119 --> 00:55:36.840
say, yeps, would you need
to make say, having the Orioles winning

672
00:55:36.880 --> 00:55:42.280
the East would be while? But
what are you on a sports website?

673
00:55:42.599 --> 00:55:44.920
No, I'm just curious, like
if you had, like, at what

674
00:55:45.039 --> 00:55:47.639
point has become off the board?
Is there any number? Really? Like,

675
00:55:47.679 --> 00:55:51.679
you know, this is probably worth
it from a mathematical perspective to spend

676
00:55:51.760 --> 00:55:55.920
like one dollar and I think higher
than that. Right, No, that's

677
00:55:55.920 --> 00:55:59.320
a waste of a dollar, right
If I, like Joe Gum for that,

678
00:56:00.039 --> 00:56:01.719
would put a dollar on Actually,
if they were really ten thousand to

679
00:56:01.800 --> 00:56:06.400
one, I would probably put like
one hundred dollars down just because that would

680
00:56:06.400 --> 00:56:10.800
be so unfathomable. I feel pretty
confident their ten thousand to one now.

681
00:56:15.000 --> 00:56:23.880
But yeah, but it's hard to
imagine there being a number. Um But

682
00:56:24.039 --> 00:56:28.119
yeah, So the Yankees in the
Al East, I think we see them

683
00:56:28.159 --> 00:56:34.719
as pretty substantially better in the Red
Sox Cleveland and Central although you know,

684
00:56:34.840 --> 00:56:39.519
I feel like I like Minnesota to
come closer to challenging them. Yeah,

685
00:56:42.159 --> 00:56:45.840
I think it'll be at least ten
games. Think the interesting I would,

686
00:56:45.960 --> 00:56:49.039
Yeah, I would take the under, but like again, like I had

687
00:56:49.079 --> 00:56:52.840
to pick Cleveland, I think ten
games is the closest that I can see

688
00:56:53.360 --> 00:57:00.320
any of the various online projections having
the Twins. I feel like they have

689
00:57:00.400 --> 00:57:05.719
more faith in Corey Cluber than I
do. And I never like teams that

690
00:57:05.760 --> 00:57:09.000
are built so much through pitching as
Cleveland is, because I feel like projection

691
00:57:09.039 --> 00:57:14.039
systems, you know, they roll
the dice on injury, but not in

692
00:57:14.239 --> 00:57:20.039
like exactly a way that you can
do it in real life. Um so

693
00:57:20.840 --> 00:57:23.519
you know, part of me thanks
that Minnesota has a better shot, but

694
00:57:24.199 --> 00:57:30.920
yeah, it's not great. Remind
me who the Twins pitchers are. They're

695
00:57:30.920 --> 00:57:34.440
all superstars. Yeah, we went
over that. Yeah, Martin Perez he

696
00:57:34.480 --> 00:57:38.119
picked up from the Velocity. Nobody
injury prone or anybody that's been in there

697
00:57:39.039 --> 00:57:43.679
are coming back from Tommy Joan or
anything like that. It's a bunch of

698
00:57:43.760 --> 00:57:51.880
pitching machines who are sentient. Yeah, really talented. So I get get

699
00:57:51.960 --> 00:57:55.760
news on Bovard Orioles are plus thirty
thousand to win the American League est.

700
00:57:55.920 --> 00:58:01.719
Wow, that's gotta be worth at
least dollar. That's a new car for

701
00:58:01.800 --> 00:58:07.199
a dollar, Come on, I
would I would put it in a mutual

702
00:58:07.280 --> 00:58:16.119
fund. I feel like that gets
to be closer to the car. All

703
00:58:16.199 --> 00:58:19.840
right, well, I look forward
to you losing your dollar. In the

704
00:58:19.880 --> 00:58:23.760
West. We have Houston, um, Boston as one of the wild cards.

705
00:58:23.800 --> 00:58:28.760
So as the other wild card,
will we say the Tampa ray Base

706
00:58:29.519 --> 00:58:37.480
Yeah, Twins, That's not what
I said. Yeah, I think the

707
00:58:37.559 --> 00:58:44.159
Twins will be the other team closest
to the race when the race when the

708
00:58:44.239 --> 00:58:46.159
second wild card, But I don't
think the Twins will be that close to

709
00:58:46.199 --> 00:58:52.079
the Indians. Yeah. I like
the Twins better as a contender for the

710
00:58:52.159 --> 00:58:55.679
division in an eighty nine win kind
of scenario then, although I guess that

711
00:58:55.719 --> 00:58:59.960
would have nine wins would probably get
them ahead of the race. Yeah,

712
00:59:00.039 --> 00:59:07.760
yeah, so maybe eighty five eighty
six. Um, you know, and

713
00:59:07.920 --> 00:59:10.360
I don't want to discount the Angels
and they don't want to discount the A's.

714
00:59:10.840 --> 00:59:16.119
I think they are both fairly interesting. Um. I have a stupid

715
00:59:16.239 --> 00:59:22.639
question. We talked about the Angels
twice already, but um, it's since

716
00:59:22.880 --> 00:59:27.079
the Trout extension, right, we
didn't did you have about that. Last

717
00:59:27.119 --> 00:59:30.079
week, we did not talk about
the by Trout extension. It will be

718
00:59:30.119 --> 00:59:37.119
an Angel extension, I think so. I think they decided it's crazy,

719
00:59:37.280 --> 00:59:42.000
right, not somebody. All right, he's totally worth it, right,

720
00:59:42.079 --> 00:59:45.199
isn't he totally worth it? Yeah, he's worth more. I tried explaining

721
00:59:45.239 --> 00:59:47.320
that to the co worker. Did
not go, well, yeah, I

722
00:59:47.400 --> 00:59:51.639
don't Okay, all right, that's
why we didn't talk about it, because

723
00:59:51.639 --> 00:59:54.719
it's boring. He's worth it,
he's amazing. I'll hear a trout.

724
00:59:57.199 --> 01:00:01.679
Were they like he's paid too much? Yes, okay, that's why you

725
01:00:01.760 --> 01:00:06.599
just stopped talking about baseball with that
person. I mean, they're not they're

726
01:00:06.639 --> 01:00:09.440
not a dumb person necessarily. It's
just you can't just like five minutes to

727
01:00:09.559 --> 01:00:15.079
somebody. Well, I don't know. There's like some things where you're just

728
01:00:15.159 --> 01:00:21.920
like, if you can't see this, then it's not gonna be interesting talking

729
01:00:22.000 --> 01:00:25.719
to you about other things, because
I have no confidence that you'll get anything

730
01:00:25.800 --> 01:00:30.519
else. I mean, I can
appreciate how it's hard to fathom that one

731
01:00:30.559 --> 01:00:37.199
baseball player is worth over four hundred
million dollars. I can appreciate. Okay,

732
01:00:37.559 --> 01:00:43.400
do you just like go to Baseball
Reference and show that Chris Davis's contract

733
01:00:44.559 --> 01:00:52.360
and then say like four times this
you could have him or four of these,

734
01:01:00.599 --> 01:01:08.039
just like, don't make me google
Mark Trumbo. It's just sorry for

735
01:01:08.119 --> 01:01:12.440
that tangent. I guess we'll come
back to that in a second anyway,

736
01:01:12.519 --> 01:01:15.960
right, all right, So in
the National League, just to start from

737
01:01:15.960 --> 01:01:21.199
the easy position, I guess the
Dodgers in the West. Ye, yeah,

738
01:01:22.400 --> 01:01:29.000
okay, that's it for the easy
positions. Uh, in the Central

739
01:01:29.400 --> 01:01:36.039
who you got Cardinals? Oh no, I had the Cardinals too. Oh

740
01:01:36.519 --> 01:01:38.159
no, Well, I don't know. This is the problem with the Cardinals

741
01:01:38.280 --> 01:01:43.320
is I don't like their pitching as
much as I think the projections stuff like

742
01:01:43.360 --> 01:01:46.880
they're pitching. I know, going
to college in Chicago leaves you guys hating

743
01:01:47.000 --> 01:01:52.360
Cubs fins, But I feel like
Cardinals fans don't not really any better.

744
01:01:52.039 --> 01:01:55.400
No, no, you don't.
You don't complain about Cardinals fans nearly as

745
01:01:55.440 --> 01:01:59.639
often as you complain about Cubs fins. And I take umbradge with that.

746
01:02:00.360 --> 01:02:04.199
Oh, I think that is a
correct decision. Well, like I said,

747
01:02:04.320 --> 01:02:07.079
I think it's because you went to
college in Chicago. Yeah, I

748
01:02:07.239 --> 01:02:13.679
be more Cubs fan than Cardinals fans
that is fair. It's like exposure bias

749
01:02:13.800 --> 01:02:19.199
or whatever. Yeah. Um,
I might actually say the Cubs, don't

750
01:02:19.239 --> 01:02:22.840
don't let them pressure into this.
Yeah, it's not even that I think

751
01:02:22.880 --> 01:02:24.840
the Cubs will win the division.
I do think you like, those two

752
01:02:24.920 --> 01:02:31.480
wild card spots are just gonna be
amazingly fun to watch. Um. Yeah,

753
01:02:32.519 --> 01:02:37.440
yeah, we would hope. Yeah. Um, I think certainly all

754
01:02:37.480 --> 01:02:40.280
five teams have at least some shot. It's hard for me to construct this

755
01:02:40.440 --> 01:02:45.519
way where the Pirates win, but
about all five teams in ESSENTI will have

756
01:02:45.559 --> 01:02:49.119
a chance of this. Yeah,
yeah, yeah, okay, I agree

757
01:02:49.119 --> 01:02:57.599
with thing. Um. I do
think it's fairly unlikely that it's the Reds.

758
01:02:57.639 --> 01:03:02.480
Also, I know you mentioned the
Pirates. I also but yeah,

759
01:03:02.559 --> 01:03:06.960
it seems like the Reds have perceived
a strategy of like signing famous people,

760
01:03:07.280 --> 01:03:12.679
which is not like ideal, but
it's also very Reds of them. Yeah,

761
01:03:14.280 --> 01:03:16.960
but you know, I it's not
out of the question. I think

762
01:03:17.000 --> 01:03:20.960
they have a lot of talented hanging
around the upper miners. Yeah, it's

763
01:03:21.079 --> 01:03:24.960
possible, but very rightly. Um, right, I do think it comes

764
01:03:25.000 --> 01:03:30.360
down to three teams. M I
would probably say the Cardinals. Given April,

765
01:03:30.480 --> 01:03:35.639
I might just change my answer to
the Cubs given the vagaries of pitching.

766
01:03:36.800 --> 01:03:39.280
I don't see how you could.
I think the Brewers are easily in

767
01:03:39.400 --> 01:03:43.760
the mix as well. I don't
see how you could change your division pick

768
01:03:43.880 --> 01:03:49.039
based on spring training. Oh,
the vagaries of pitching, not spring training.

769
01:03:49.800 --> 01:03:52.480
I thought you said based on April. Oh, based on the team

770
01:03:52.559 --> 01:03:57.280
that they are rolling into, Like
if if you told me one hundred and

771
01:03:57.320 --> 01:04:02.559
sixty two games of these people.
Okay, I used our composition today basically,

772
01:04:02.920 --> 01:04:06.360
Yeah, okay, I think the
Cubs probably have more resources to spend,

773
01:04:06.599 --> 01:04:13.239
and although like they don't have,
the Cubs don't have a ton of

774
01:04:13.320 --> 01:04:15.920
depth. But I feel like the
Cardinals have even less depth in the rotation

775
01:04:15.960 --> 01:04:21.760
and they don't quite realize it,
which may point towards Milwaukee, who actually

776
01:04:21.800 --> 01:04:27.719
do have rotation depth. Yeah.
When I was having and hanging about the

777
01:04:27.760 --> 01:04:30.519
Cardinals, I was actually thinking about
the Brewers, not the Cubs. Um.

778
01:04:33.039 --> 01:04:35.000
All right, so we may we
may all have to go our own

779
01:04:35.039 --> 01:04:40.000
way on this. How much more
exciting would baseball be if the Rays were

780
01:04:40.039 --> 01:04:45.559
in this division? That would be
great? Yeah, all right, you

781
01:04:45.599 --> 01:04:50.599
should have like a good team's division
and everyone else division relegation. That's fair.

782
01:04:51.760 --> 01:04:57.960
Yeah, you can see, like
the Marlins playing against the Orioles thirty

783
01:04:58.000 --> 01:05:02.840
five times a year or whatever.
Sounds great. It's like, sorry,

784
01:05:03.000 --> 01:05:09.159
this game has been called due to
zero to zero and the ninth I like,

785
01:05:09.320 --> 01:05:15.559
nobody's done anything that constitutes a baseball
skill, Jared, is that your

786
01:05:15.800 --> 01:05:25.199
idea of heaven or hell? Yes? I like, instead of experimenting the

787
01:05:25.239 --> 01:05:28.519
Atlantic League, they should just let
the O's and Marlins play each other like

788
01:05:28.599 --> 01:05:32.480
an entire bud. Just do whatever
rules they want. Calvin Ballitt, Yes,

789
01:05:36.440 --> 01:05:42.360
I would probably watch that, or
you do, like, uh,

790
01:05:42.800 --> 01:05:44.960
you know, they have to play
a hundred games in a row and after

791
01:05:45.039 --> 01:05:48.239
every game, the winner gets to
make a new rule. Oh that sounds

792
01:05:48.280 --> 01:05:54.840
good. All right, Sorry,
let's predict that. At least I keep

793
01:05:54.920 --> 01:06:00.320
taking us on terrible tangents. Um, I don't really have a good answer

794
01:06:00.440 --> 01:06:02.280
to who will win the A.
At least I do not feel good about

795
01:06:02.320 --> 01:06:04.599
any pick. I will you mean
the NL East, right? I think,

796
01:06:05.440 --> 01:06:10.800
yeah, at least I feel relatively
confident. Um, And at least

797
01:06:13.400 --> 01:06:17.199
I don't know off the top of
my head. I would probably say Nationals.

798
01:06:17.239 --> 01:06:24.440
Again, I'm saying Nats, and
I just said, because I appreciate

799
01:06:24.519 --> 01:06:29.800
Hu risk, but I think that's
it's tough to say which team in the

800
01:06:30.039 --> 01:06:38.639
division has the most hubrists, though
I feel like I feel like I guess

801
01:06:38.679 --> 01:06:42.639
just to bekn Tray and I'll pick
the Phillies. I don't really think they'll

802
01:06:42.639 --> 01:06:46.679
win. Actually, I think it's
the Nationals, but I mean, I

803
01:06:47.239 --> 01:06:53.239
don't think it's any more than like
twenty five, twenty four, twenty two,

804
01:06:53.840 --> 01:06:57.800
eighteen. So I don't feel strongly
about the Nationals pack. You can

805
01:06:57.840 --> 01:07:00.360
convince me it's the Phillies. I
feel like the Phillies do have of strow

806
01:07:00.440 --> 01:07:06.360
top end talent. They probably have
a deeper rotation. Um. I don't

807
01:07:06.920 --> 01:07:13.119
like with my issue with the Phillies
is I probably don't think that like Jean

808
01:07:13.199 --> 01:07:17.119
Sigura is quite as great like some
of their upgrades. I do think real

809
01:07:17.239 --> 01:07:21.280
Media is great, but I think
he'll fall back a little bit. Um.

810
01:07:21.920 --> 01:07:25.599
The Phillies to me, have a
few more holes than the Nats do

811
01:07:26.800 --> 01:07:30.039
at the outset. But um,
do you think there's a chance that the

812
01:07:30.119 --> 01:07:36.159
Braves win that division? Oh?
Yeah, what chance? Yeah? And

813
01:07:36.280 --> 01:07:41.719
the Mets also could Yeah, the
Marlins definitely could not. Or you know,

814
01:07:42.360 --> 01:07:45.079
yeah, I like the Marlins better
than consensus. I don't think they're

815
01:07:45.519 --> 01:07:49.840
dismal, but um, you'd pick
them against the Os in the one hundred

816
01:07:49.880 --> 01:07:56.440
game series. Oh yeah, you
can at least pretend to think about it.

817
01:07:56.559 --> 01:08:00.639
Then no Marlins would win as Marlins
would win like any time to ninety

818
01:08:00.960 --> 01:08:05.280
against the Oriels. There, I
think they're a much better team. They

819
01:08:05.360 --> 01:08:09.480
have no offense, but they have
like four to five interesting starting pitchers.

820
01:08:09.880 --> 01:08:15.440
Oris TBD sorry game two we just
no, no, no, no,

821
01:08:15.719 --> 01:08:19.520
the bullpen game is game to TBD
is game Sorry sorry I thought this,

822
01:08:23.359 --> 01:08:28.319
um no at Atlanta, Like,
I don't think it's hard to see like

823
01:08:28.479 --> 01:08:31.920
three to four breakouts from their stable
starting pitchers. I just wonder whether they'll

824
01:08:31.920 --> 01:08:36.479
be able to find cycle through the
right pictures and enough time to not like

825
01:08:36.640 --> 01:08:43.239
drop a bunch of games in April
and May. Um, but you know,

826
01:08:43.800 --> 01:08:46.399
it doesn't take much to think that
like Ozzie Albies could break out or

827
01:08:46.880 --> 01:08:51.760
round County. It could get even
better. Josh Donaldson could be a six

828
01:08:51.880 --> 01:08:56.279
win, seven win player. Like, I don't think any of that's like

829
01:08:56.359 --> 01:09:00.399
unfathomable. And if that happens,
then all of a sudden they're winning division.

830
01:09:00.840 --> 01:09:02.359
You know, I just don't think
it's the most likely picks, which

831
01:09:02.439 --> 01:09:09.800
is why I would say percentages are
more interesting then top line stats, right,

832
01:09:11.079 --> 01:09:15.119
um and the math. You know. I am probably less into the

833
01:09:15.199 --> 01:09:18.520
mats than the projections, but I
think they have an easy path to wedding

834
01:09:18.640 --> 01:09:28.680
division as well, so totally conceivable. Um so yeah, I don't.

835
01:09:28.800 --> 01:09:32.800
I don't know. Um, I
do think probably I would have whichever whichever

836
01:09:32.960 --> 01:09:35.720
one I end up hemming and hauling
with, between the Nats and Phillies,

837
01:09:35.840 --> 01:09:40.359
I would have one of them as
the wild card or the number one wild

838
01:09:40.439 --> 01:09:47.720
card for me, and number two
could be the other one out of the

839
01:09:47.800 --> 01:09:51.239
East instead of the Central. Yeah, it doesn't it doesn't have to be

840
01:09:51.319 --> 01:09:55.760
the Cardinals. Sorry, I'll say
covers for the second while. Yeah,

841
01:09:58.199 --> 01:10:04.960
so Jared, you've got Phillies,
Nationals, Cardinals, Cubs and yeah.

842
01:10:05.039 --> 01:10:12.079
Yeah, um, I don't want
to say exactly the same, but probably

843
01:10:12.199 --> 01:10:16.960
I would say that in a different
order. Um I might. I might

844
01:10:17.800 --> 01:10:21.520
say Atlanta with the second world card, just to vary it if we had

845
01:10:21.600 --> 01:10:25.279
to. But like if I were
coming back from the future and I told

846
01:10:25.279 --> 01:10:30.000
you it was like Mets, Braves, Reds, Brewers, Yeah, sure

847
01:10:30.119 --> 01:10:34.239
would you believe me enough to like
go bet your life savings on it.

848
01:10:35.439 --> 01:10:39.680
Sure, if you told me the
Rockies were champion, like, I could

849
01:10:39.920 --> 01:10:42.399
see. I don't really like what
the Rockies have done, but I could

850
01:10:42.439 --> 01:10:45.319
see it. He told me the
Padres had the best record in the NL.

851
01:10:46.079 --> 01:10:54.199
I think there's a really clear path
to that happening. Yes, less

852
01:10:54.239 --> 01:11:02.399
likely than the others, but yeah, sure, all right, So UM

853
01:11:03.000 --> 01:11:13.000
awards quick. Yeah, so al
MVP. Before before it started, we

854
01:11:13.279 --> 01:11:18.279
uh put together a little short list, so Mike Trout, Yeah, so

855
01:11:18.560 --> 01:11:24.039
having a combination of like stories and
players, I feel like I feel like

856
01:11:24.079 --> 01:11:29.920
storyline has become less and less important
to voting goodness with more and more nerds

857
01:11:30.079 --> 01:11:32.840
taking over. Um, but you
know there's still elements of that. So

858
01:11:33.159 --> 01:11:40.520
certainly, Mike Trout, Mickey Bett's
on the list. Um, I think

859
01:11:41.800 --> 01:11:44.840
I put Xander Bogart's on the list. I could see his age twenty seven

860
01:11:44.880 --> 01:11:48.399
season being very interesting. Um.
If the Red Sox do pass the Yankees,

861
01:11:49.079 --> 01:11:53.760
something has death changed in order for
that to happen. If the Yankees

862
01:11:53.840 --> 01:12:00.680
win, um, I feel like
Aaron Judge might just win and be based

863
01:12:00.720 --> 01:12:06.079
on hitting sixty home runs and being
a very physically buzz expensive. Um.

864
01:12:06.279 --> 01:12:12.960
If the Astros win one hundred or
one hundred two, Um, I don't

865
01:12:13.000 --> 01:12:15.720
know that it could be any of
a bunch of players. I put Alex

866
01:12:15.760 --> 01:12:18.079
Bregman maybe as the most likely to
be the star of that. I feel

867
01:12:18.119 --> 01:12:23.680
like he is on the verge of
being very well known. Um. I

868
01:12:23.760 --> 01:12:26.760
feel like he wants to be a
famous person. Yeah, a personality.

869
01:12:27.039 --> 01:12:30.640
I was gonna say, he's definitely
more interested in putting himself out there.

870
01:12:30.680 --> 01:12:34.520
I feel like, yeah, and
I feel like sometimes that pays off in

871
01:12:34.800 --> 01:12:40.680
narrative and MVP votes in particular.
Um, which is fine. I'm you

872
01:12:40.760 --> 01:12:45.840
know, I am big supporter of
his position. Something so great he wants

873
01:12:45.840 --> 01:12:48.199
to be a famous person ideal.
I was thinking, what if, like

874
01:12:48.279 --> 01:12:56.880
if the Rays surprise, UM,
I can't guess. Yeah, well is

875
01:12:56.920 --> 01:13:00.479
it like like it could be Blake
Snell. But I did put Tommy fam

876
01:13:00.560 --> 01:13:04.239
I think there's a potential version of
him that has the same season he had

877
01:13:04.279 --> 01:13:10.840
two years ago, and that's the
level season. Yeah. Well, like

878
01:13:11.000 --> 01:13:13.439
if the if the Rays win ninety
games, how do they do it?

879
01:13:15.840 --> 01:13:17.920
I mean, this is the question
I was asking earlier Rays, Like it's

880
01:13:17.920 --> 01:13:21.479
got to be somebody breaking out.
So whoever that is, that's the answer.

881
01:13:23.199 --> 01:13:26.800
Yeah, and I like it could
be any of a bunch of people.

882
01:13:26.920 --> 01:13:30.439
You know, that I had him
theoretically is most likely. I don't

883
01:13:30.479 --> 01:13:32.640
think I would put him on a
top three list, but just to mention

884
01:13:32.720 --> 01:13:39.319
it, um, so probably we
will be bored against. Say, Mike

885
01:13:39.319 --> 01:13:43.279
Trout will be the most valuable player
in the American League. Okay, cool,

886
01:13:43.920 --> 01:13:48.640
say young? I have a few
names. Uh, I think Chris

887
01:13:48.720 --> 01:13:53.319
Sale is on the list. Um, he's never won a say Young,

888
01:13:53.479 --> 01:14:00.640
that seems ridiculous. Um, Justin
Verlander and Garrett Cole, the Astros,

889
01:14:01.880 --> 01:14:06.239
a bunch of Cleveland Indians. I
am soften quite cleber this year, but

890
01:14:06.960 --> 01:14:12.560
Trevor Bauer for sure. But I
could see I could see any of the

891
01:14:12.600 --> 01:14:17.920
five starters to me right sneaking into
this. Um. You know, I

892
01:14:18.000 --> 01:14:21.359
think the I think the shot that
all five are good is pretty low,

893
01:14:21.560 --> 01:14:26.000
which is why I'm a little down
on Cleveland. But you could also see

894
01:14:26.159 --> 01:14:31.439
certainly one of them being a cy
Young caliber player. Um, if the

895
01:14:31.560 --> 01:14:35.680
Yankees are good, maybe James Paxton
gets a bunch of wins and is also

896
01:14:35.680 --> 01:14:44.640
a good pitcher, um, thus
hitting all quadrants and uh, you know,

897
01:14:44.720 --> 01:14:46.840
Blake Smell did win last year.
I don't. I think it's super

898
01:14:46.960 --> 01:14:50.760
likely he'll go again. But I
see those as the most likely candidates.

899
01:14:50.920 --> 01:14:56.720
Do you have a favorite from that? M I hate them all, but

900
01:14:56.840 --> 01:15:00.439
I go with Chris Hale, really
go with Gary Cole. I'm gonna go

901
01:15:00.479 --> 01:15:05.479
with Garrett Coll as well. Oh
I don't. I'm trying to be a

902
01:15:05.560 --> 01:15:14.920
contrarian in Yeah. Yeah, I
think he's a really good picture and I

903
01:15:14.960 --> 01:15:17.600
can see it happening. Um,
I'm hoping. I'm hoping that Garrett coll

904
01:15:17.640 --> 01:15:24.039
and Terror Bauer finished one too and
continued there heated rivalry from UCLA where they

905
01:15:24.079 --> 01:15:28.680
were teammates in college and yet don't
talk to each other because one of them

906
01:15:28.760 --> 01:15:35.000
is a weird though. Figure.
I know it's not gonna say who um

907
01:15:35.439 --> 01:15:41.640
Rookie of the Year, Um,
I put a few names on. I

908
01:15:41.760 --> 01:15:45.119
think Lad Greyer Junior has a shot. I mean he's not a major league

909
01:15:45.119 --> 01:15:48.439
player right now, but you know, I think by the maybe someday,

910
01:15:48.720 --> 01:15:53.640
Yeah, I think someday he'll figure
out how to play at the major league

911
01:15:53.720 --> 01:15:59.680
level. Eloy Jimenez um and then
coming up, um, you know,

912
01:15:59.760 --> 01:16:04.680
for Whitley, I think has you
could end up taking Brad Peacock's job we

913
01:16:04.800 --> 01:16:09.880
talked about, but um, we're
Colin McHugh. Um. I think he's

914
01:16:10.039 --> 01:16:13.159
very close. Having watched him the
spring training, I think Casey's Lazaro had

915
01:16:13.159 --> 01:16:15.880
an amazing spring training, for whatever
that's worth. And then I hurt right

916
01:16:15.920 --> 01:16:18.079
at the end of it. So
maybe that's the end of his rookie hops.

917
01:16:18.920 --> 01:16:24.199
Um, And I said Danny Jantsen
just because he has a job in

918
01:16:24.279 --> 01:16:28.439
April, which is always a good
way to compile stats as rookie. Um,

919
01:16:30.920 --> 01:16:36.279
any thoughts here, I mean it's
gonna beg Yeah, I think so.

920
01:16:36.720 --> 01:16:42.279
I think he's gonna be too exciting
to ignore, even though he'll come

921
01:16:42.359 --> 01:16:47.199
up a little bit later and have
less counting accumulation types of factors, He'll

922
01:16:48.239 --> 01:16:54.680
he'll wow voters. Okay, Um, sure, I think he'll have the

923
01:16:54.760 --> 01:16:59.119
story. I will say, oh
ahead then as who I think is maybe

924
01:16:59.119 --> 01:17:01.000
a little bit more ready, and
also it's going to have the extra gone.

925
01:17:01.279 --> 01:17:04.880
But yeah, I mean I think
Lutgar Dunior is pretty good. So

926
01:17:05.920 --> 01:17:09.960
it's not like a shine. Yeah, there are I mean many scenarios where

927
01:17:09.960 --> 01:17:14.119
it's not him, but you have
to say, oh I did not so

928
01:17:14.359 --> 01:17:19.680
I do not care for your rules, but nonetheless, uh n L MVP,

929
01:17:20.680 --> 01:17:24.119
I think n L MVP could be
a very long list, just because

930
01:17:24.199 --> 01:17:28.000
again it's a narrative based award still
to some level, and there are a

931
01:17:28.039 --> 01:17:30.840
lot of teams that you could see
with the narrative. Um, is n

932
01:17:30.960 --> 01:17:35.239
L m VP the most interesting award
race? Do you think? Or like?

933
01:17:35.319 --> 01:17:39.960
Will it turn out to be the
most interesting award race? UM?

934
01:17:40.520 --> 01:17:43.760
One of them? I think Cy
Young is also going to be fascinating in

935
01:17:43.840 --> 01:17:47.159
that league. UM. But you
know, part of it is that I

936
01:17:47.319 --> 01:17:53.319
think, you know, if Mike
Trout was in the NL, it would

937
01:17:53.359 --> 01:17:57.279
not be an interesting race, right, And if Bookie Betts was in the

938
01:17:57.359 --> 01:18:00.680
NL, would not be an interesting
race. And I feel like Spreigman would

939
01:18:00.680 --> 01:18:02.319
be the fair like I think the
favorites are still in the ALE, but

940
01:18:03.560 --> 01:18:06.399
there are a lot of players who
I have at a roughly similar level.

941
01:18:09.199 --> 01:18:12.760
I think when talking about the alf
He race, he have to talk about

942
01:18:12.800 --> 01:18:15.840
Brace Harper and Manny Machado. You
know, the classic moved to a new

943
01:18:15.880 --> 01:18:23.239
team the narrative, so they are
certainly on the list. Paul Goldschmidt,

944
01:18:23.359 --> 01:18:27.319
who is moving to a new team. If the Cardinals are successful. Um,

945
01:18:27.479 --> 01:18:30.640
he will probably be the biggest name
as to why. Um, you

946
01:18:30.760 --> 01:18:36.079
know, even if he's maybe slipped
a little bit from his peak, if

947
01:18:36.119 --> 01:18:40.439
he recovers at all, too,
maybe that's a comeback narrative. Um.

948
01:18:40.680 --> 01:18:46.439
If Chris Bryant comes back even to
what he was last year, I think,

949
01:18:46.920 --> 01:18:56.600
you know, he would be the
best player on the Cubs. Uh.

950
01:18:57.279 --> 01:19:00.399
You know, I think with probably
you could back some regression from having

951
01:19:00.479 --> 01:19:04.920
bias, and maybe Anthonys so as
well. So I do think it would

952
01:19:04.920 --> 01:19:13.800
be Bryant's team for another year.
The Gnats are interesting, I you know,

953
01:19:13.880 --> 01:19:18.680
I think Anthony Randown has been historically
underrated, but maybe it's his team

954
01:19:18.760 --> 01:19:23.479
now. I could also see him
just getting passed by one Soto who has

955
01:19:23.560 --> 01:19:28.239
an amazing year and just wins the
MVPH twenty years old or whatever he is,

956
01:19:30.560 --> 01:19:33.039
And then you know the Brewers.
It's hard for me to imagine Christian

957
01:19:33.119 --> 01:19:36.239
yell Is winning a second award because
I don't I don't think of him as

958
01:19:36.279 --> 01:19:42.359
like a typical MVP caliber player,
but there's no one who really stands out

959
01:19:42.399 --> 01:19:46.239
as like headed shoulders above these players, so he would certainly be the best

960
01:19:46.279 --> 01:19:51.359
player and potentially the best team.
Do any names from that standout as a

961
01:19:51.439 --> 01:20:00.199
player who will go if they really
don't? Yeah, okay, yeah,

962
01:20:03.439 --> 01:20:09.199
I don't know. I want to
Canna take the field. Uh no,

963
01:20:11.359 --> 01:20:18.199
no, you literally a question.
Ah, it was worth a shot.

964
01:20:18.399 --> 01:20:28.640
So good at making decisions this seam. Um, I'll say Windown. Okay,

965
01:20:28.760 --> 01:20:38.119
I will say one soda ooh all
teammates last year. Yes, uh

966
01:20:38.159 --> 01:20:44.039
see, I know stuff about baseball
for I think for much the same reason.

967
01:20:44.159 --> 01:20:45.960
Right, if Washington is going to
win the division, I think that

968
01:20:46.000 --> 01:20:49.560
will be very surprising to a lot
of people. Yeah, they may look

969
01:20:49.600 --> 01:20:56.039
to the best player. Um to
that end, Actually you may find them

970
01:20:56.119 --> 01:20:58.880
here. And I'll say young race. I put a bunch of names on

971
01:20:58.960 --> 01:21:01.119
this list, but um, to
cut it down a little bit. Like

972
01:21:01.239 --> 01:21:06.279
Jacob Degram certainly won last year,
I could win it again. Max Scherzer,

973
01:21:08.239 --> 01:21:13.520
Um, you know, I think
certainly a favorite in this Aaron Nola

974
01:21:13.640 --> 01:21:18.760
came in third last year. Um, everyone loves hair Bond Marquez is their

975
01:21:18.800 --> 01:21:26.159
Sleepers a young pickum. And then
I have a bunch of what I would

976
01:21:26.159 --> 01:21:30.560
consider second to your name. So
Noah Synder Guard, Chris Archer, I

977
01:21:30.680 --> 01:21:39.399
put Walker Bueller Steven Strasburg. I
thank you forgot somebody, Jack Flaherty,

978
01:21:39.960 --> 01:21:47.399
No, uh, Ian, Who's
the best picture alive? It's a great

979
01:21:47.479 --> 01:21:54.359
question, Max Richard. I know
he's starting this season. I know he's

980
01:21:54.399 --> 01:21:56.800
starting the season at the DAL,
But I'm gonna go with Clayton Krisha.

981
01:21:57.439 --> 01:22:00.039
Yeah, as a scion winner.
Yeah, his team's gonna run away with

982
01:22:00.079 --> 01:22:04.319
that division. And if he's even
remotely healthy after he comes back, I

983
01:22:04.439 --> 01:22:12.960
think you know, he also benefits
from lord expectations. Yeah yeah, uh

984
01:22:13.159 --> 01:22:15.760
yeah, And he was a pretty
darn good picture last year. Healthy.

985
01:22:16.640 --> 01:22:24.279
Um he's always been. Yeah.
I I have trouble seeing that as a

986
01:22:24.279 --> 01:22:32.159
possibility to be perfectly candidum perfect.
But um, you know again, I

987
01:22:32.239 --> 01:22:35.039
think this is a race where there
I had to cut it off somewhere.

988
01:22:35.560 --> 01:22:40.840
But I even had names behind this, Um, none of them were Clayton

989
01:22:40.920 --> 01:22:51.560
Kersha. Nons are in the air
with my palms upward in dismay and surprise,

990
01:22:53.159 --> 01:22:57.119
Yeah, James the tie on.
I think, do you really think

991
01:22:57.159 --> 01:23:01.199
that Clayton Kersha is not the best
picture alive? Yes? I think he

992
01:23:01.479 --> 01:23:08.239
was for for a long time.
Is it just health? Um? I

993
01:23:08.359 --> 01:23:12.640
think it's health and ability. I
think his fastball has degraded, and um,

994
01:23:14.159 --> 01:23:15.640
you know, I think that's a
tremendously hard thing to get back,

995
01:23:16.000 --> 01:23:20.439
and it's caused less separation between his
fastball, and it's causes carball to deteriorate

996
01:23:20.479 --> 01:23:24.920
a little bit too. So you
think the dipping velocity is not tied exclusively

997
01:23:25.039 --> 01:23:31.279
to his injury, yes, m
or it's to an injury that came.

998
01:23:31.640 --> 01:23:35.840
What would you say as the over
under on his fastball velocity at the end

999
01:23:35.880 --> 01:23:44.079
of twenty nineteen? Over under would
I guess I would probably say a little

1000
01:23:44.199 --> 01:23:48.199
under what he was at this year, which is I was thinking, was

1001
01:23:48.279 --> 01:23:56.960
that ninety or so pos has for
his fast ball velocity in twenty eighteen.

1002
01:23:58.199 --> 01:24:03.279
Okay, Um, before that he
was at ninety three point one, ninety

1003
01:24:03.279 --> 01:24:05.800
three point seven, ninety four point
three, ninety three point six, etc.

1004
01:24:06.239 --> 01:24:10.119
Ninety threes, high ninety threes,
though ninety four is the rest of

1005
01:24:10.199 --> 01:24:15.359
his career. Yeah, Um,
I guess that's where I would set the

1006
01:24:15.399 --> 01:24:19.840
over under. I think I know
where you would go with that. I

1007
01:24:19.920 --> 01:24:27.399
mean, I just think it's it's
more fun to bet over on that,

1008
01:24:27.880 --> 01:24:30.279
So I would do that no matter
what. Yeah, I mean, I

1009
01:24:30.279 --> 01:24:36.279
would dearly love you Jared, are
you interested in the under on ninety one

1010
01:24:36.359 --> 01:24:42.760
point four? He gradually take the
under? All right, so I'll put

1011
01:24:42.800 --> 01:24:45.920
a dollar on that. Sure,
all right. I don't like being against

1012
01:24:46.000 --> 01:24:54.000
Clayton her show, but yeah we
made it through with one prop. Yeah.

1013
01:24:54.199 --> 01:24:58.680
And do you want to set a
minimum number of pitches for the bet

1014
01:24:58.760 --> 01:25:03.800
to count? Yeah? I mean
I don't, but sure, let's see,

1015
01:25:04.439 --> 01:25:09.560
I'm trying to see what the number
of pitches is here? Well,

1016
01:25:09.600 --> 01:25:13.760
ben Zing that ian is Clayton Kershaw
the best picture on the Dodgers five hundred

1017
01:25:13.800 --> 01:25:18.439
pitches? Yeah? For for me? Yeah? Um? I mean is

1018
01:25:18.479 --> 01:25:20.399
there a world who which he could
be the best picture in the Doctor?

1019
01:25:20.439 --> 01:25:24.359
Sure? I mean was there?
But yeah? Would I pick it now?

1020
01:25:24.720 --> 01:25:29.640
Yeah? You're gonna pick Peeler?
Yeah? John? Are you good

1021
01:25:29.680 --> 01:25:38.199
with the minimum five hundred pitches?
Sure? Okay? Play four miles?

1022
01:25:39.600 --> 01:25:44.720
Yeah? Uh so his average fastball
velocity in September last year it was ninety

1023
01:25:44.760 --> 01:25:50.800
point six, So yeah, this
one okay? All right? Um that

1024
01:25:50.920 --> 01:25:55.800
said, so for Sion, um, I don't have a really good favorite.

1025
01:25:56.039 --> 01:26:03.000
Um I part of me one to
say Steve was Strasburg just because it's

1026
01:26:03.479 --> 01:26:08.439
uh, it's fun. Yeah,
it's fun, isn't it. I do

1027
01:26:08.600 --> 01:26:15.960
feel like there's one year where it
will happen. Um, I could see

1028
01:26:16.000 --> 01:26:20.359
it being Chris Archer or Jameson tie
On, which makes me think that's the

1029
01:26:20.439 --> 01:26:29.000
path to parish contention. Yeah,
I guess I will go slightly off the

1030
01:26:29.039 --> 01:26:34.720
board and say no underguard. H
Can I take the field here? Let's

1031
01:26:34.720 --> 01:26:38.279
see how you can call it going
off the board. When you created the

1032
01:26:38.319 --> 01:26:46.439
board, maybe you just made a
better board. Also, he was on

1033
01:26:46.520 --> 01:26:51.399
the board. I said, off
the board of a board that I created

1034
01:26:51.520 --> 01:26:59.039
that he was just to follow the
thought of wow, awesome. But I

1035
01:26:59.079 --> 01:27:00.800
don't think. I don't think he's
the favorite, but I think, um,

1036
01:27:03.760 --> 01:27:10.960
there's I could see a scenario.
Is dallas Kiko still unsigned? Dallas

1037
01:27:11.000 --> 01:27:14.720
ki is still unsigned. What if
he signs with like one of these central

1038
01:27:14.760 --> 01:27:16.640
teams, like the Brewers or something, and just like it goes bananas.

1039
01:27:18.960 --> 01:27:21.840
It would be hard to imagine him
going bananas, but I could see that

1040
01:27:21.920 --> 01:27:28.680
happening very clearly. Wait, it's
hard to imagine him pining banas wen.

1041
01:27:29.640 --> 01:27:31.199
I could see the first half of
it. Signing with anal central team.

1042
01:27:31.319 --> 01:27:35.119
Oh yeah, yeah, Okay,
I think it would be a good fit.

1043
01:27:35.239 --> 01:27:39.319
On Saint Louis. I think it
would be a good fit on Milwaukee.

1044
01:27:39.720 --> 01:27:43.000
Yeah, I think it would be
a decent fit on the Reds,

1045
01:27:43.000 --> 01:27:46.640
who have been trying to sign him
for a few months. I also think

1046
01:27:46.680 --> 01:27:51.279
he's a number four starter at this
point. So but you know, those

1047
01:27:51.319 --> 01:27:58.840
teams could use it. Hum and
n I'll work just quickly. So uh.

1048
01:28:00.319 --> 01:28:05.479
I have Fernando Tatis, who was
announced today or yesterday when you listen

1049
01:28:05.479 --> 01:28:10.960
to this, will be starting the
season in the major leagues. So AJ

1050
01:28:11.079 --> 01:28:15.039
Prewler not afraid to throw those bones. Chris Paddock who will be starting season

1051
01:28:15.039 --> 01:28:21.279
in major leagues, get get them
extensions. J. Prowler, H.

1052
01:28:21.479 --> 01:28:28.239
Francisco Mihia. Are we gonna go
with an all padre rookie one two three?

1053
01:28:29.920 --> 01:28:33.880
UM? I think Pete Alonzo does
a lot of things that voters like

1054
01:28:35.359 --> 01:28:40.640
Nickson Zel got hurt, but he
could be up very early. UM.

1055
01:28:41.359 --> 01:28:48.159
And then a bunch of um Atlanta
pitchers M. Kyle Wright is going to

1056
01:28:48.159 --> 01:28:51.840
be in the rotation to start the
year. I really like Bryce Wilson who's

1057
01:28:51.840 --> 01:28:57.520
going to be in the rotation to
start the year. UM. So that's

1058
01:28:57.600 --> 01:29:02.680
a lot of a lot of possibilities. I don't know if anyone has any

1059
01:29:02.760 --> 01:29:08.279
thoughts on this. I do like
a Padre to win. I'm not sure

1060
01:29:08.359 --> 01:29:12.439
who my favorite is going to be. I don't think it's Fernando Tattoos,

1061
01:29:12.479 --> 01:29:17.560
who I don't think is immediately going
to break out, although certainly in spring

1062
01:29:17.600 --> 01:29:24.319
training he has looked great and would
put that to put that's to shame.

1063
01:29:24.640 --> 01:29:29.119
I probably would say Chris Paddock even
health. Just all in it on Chris

1064
01:29:29.199 --> 01:29:32.359
Paddick. Yeah, well yeah,
at least for an IL Workie of the

1065
01:29:32.439 --> 01:29:38.000
year. I do think he could
be at the margins of the cy Young

1066
01:29:38.079 --> 01:29:42.960
conversation. And he has a job
in April, so yes, I all

1067
01:29:43.039 --> 01:29:49.399
in. Okay, I look forward
to those all being wrong. That's the

1068
01:29:49.640 --> 01:29:54.720
whole point, right, Yeah,
when we're celebrating the OILS championship the end

1069
01:29:54.760 --> 01:30:01.600
of the year, we'll just delete
this podcast casually. All right, until

1070
01:30:01.680 --> 01:30:06.680
then, let's wrap this up.
I guess, quickly, the best things

1071
01:30:06.920 --> 01:30:11.199
you saw this week? N I
guess I'll start with you, all right.

1072
01:30:11.840 --> 01:30:14.399
I went to Austin this weekend for
a tournament. It was fun.

1073
01:30:14.920 --> 01:30:19.680
We played moderately well but not amazingly. But the best thing that I saw

1074
01:30:19.920 --> 01:30:25.359
was the brisket from Franklin's. Before
I put it in my mouth. There

1075
01:30:26.079 --> 01:30:29.039
was like six pounds of slice brisket
that I bought, and then I also

1076
01:30:29.159 --> 01:30:35.960
bought vacuum sealed brisket to bring home
six pounds each, one for me and

1077
01:30:36.239 --> 01:30:42.319
each of YouTube. So I carried
something like twenty pounds of brisket into the

1078
01:30:42.359 --> 01:30:45.840
airport in a giant cooler. I
had to check the cooler and I got

1079
01:30:45.880 --> 01:30:49.239
a cute little note from TSA saying
they had to inspect my bag. I

1080
01:30:49.319 --> 01:30:55.680
don't understand why there were two ice
packs, twenty pounds of brisket and two

1081
01:30:55.760 --> 01:31:00.880
bottles of barbecue sauce in there,
but normal for a checked bag. Thank

1082
01:31:00.920 --> 01:31:06.439
you very much. Yeah, the
brisket is delicious and amazing. Franklins is

1083
01:31:06.479 --> 01:31:12.239
awesome. Go there if you're ever
in Austin. Yeah. Yeah, I

1084
01:31:12.279 --> 01:31:14.800
think I feel like there are two
kinds of people in well, three kinds

1085
01:31:14.800 --> 01:31:17.359
of people, vegetarians, people who
have not been here, and people who

1086
01:31:17.399 --> 01:31:23.640
would carry twenty pounds pounds of meat. You know, I did get a

1087
01:31:23.760 --> 01:31:28.560
bruise on my shoulder from carrying the
bag because I'd like carried it on the

1088
01:31:28.640 --> 01:31:39.439
same spot and it was so just
imagining a weight room. But so so,

1089
01:31:39.760 --> 01:31:44.039
the best thing I saw this week
was the best thing I think a

1090
01:31:44.079 --> 01:31:47.239
lot of people saw this week.
I watched the Seattle Oakland game two,

1091
01:31:49.159 --> 01:31:51.760
because who cares about the start of
the season. It was all that game

1092
01:31:51.800 --> 01:31:58.720
too. So I watched each year's
final game, which was moving in all

1093
01:31:58.760 --> 01:32:00.199
the right ways. We talked a
little each here last week. I don't

1094
01:32:00.199 --> 01:32:04.479
want to labor the point, but
certainly amportant player, and you know,

1095
01:32:04.600 --> 01:32:09.239
certain like it. Just watching him, it was made it like it took

1096
01:32:09.279 --> 01:32:14.239
me back to the first time I
saw him, which may have been the

1097
01:32:14.239 --> 01:32:15.920
first baseball game that Heard and I
saw together. I was trying to figure

1098
01:32:15.960 --> 01:32:21.239
out if that's true. But because
I know exactly where I was, I

1099
01:32:21.319 --> 01:32:25.760
was in I was in a room
in our dorm and in the blue room

1100
01:32:25.760 --> 01:32:30.119
in the corner. I remember watching
the game. I remember the throw um

1101
01:32:30.840 --> 01:32:36.920
that was the first time. Yeah
yeah, yeah, oh um. So

1102
01:32:38.319 --> 01:32:41.119
just seeing that and seeing all of
love for him, you know, obviously

1103
01:32:41.319 --> 01:32:45.920
a lot of you experienced that as
well. So um, you know,

1104
01:32:45.039 --> 01:32:49.079
I don't think I'm breaking new ground. A couple notes from the game,

1105
01:32:49.199 --> 01:32:58.560
just because I had other other than
eats hero um number one um I thought,

1106
01:32:59.199 --> 01:33:01.000
I thought it was a good podcast. I thought Dave Fleming was and

1107
01:33:01.199 --> 01:33:06.600
Eduar Prez it gave way to the
occasion. I think Dave Fleming probably hit

1108
01:33:06.640 --> 01:33:12.079
the narrative a little hard after an
inning or so, but it was also

1109
01:33:12.159 --> 01:33:15.000
breaking news for him and I realized
he had to get a lot of people

1110
01:33:15.039 --> 01:33:16.640
on board with each off inning,
so he kind of had to restate the

1111
01:33:16.680 --> 01:33:23.640
obvious a lot. My favorite,
my favorite line for that was when they

1112
01:33:23.880 --> 01:33:30.039
Tim Beckham was up and he uh. They were talking about Tim Beckham and

1113
01:33:30.319 --> 01:33:34.439
how good a Japan series he was
having, I guess in the preseason games,

1114
01:33:34.520 --> 01:33:38.359
and in the first two games of
season, he hits a single up

1115
01:33:38.359 --> 01:33:42.279
the middle and Dave Fleming says,
it looks like he doesn't want to leave

1116
01:33:42.319 --> 01:33:46.319
Tokyo. And I was thinking,
like, Matt, when you're talking about

1117
01:33:46.319 --> 01:33:54.119
like Tim Beckham's career, like that's
a really like that's plausible. That's a

1118
01:33:54.159 --> 01:33:57.199
little too close to home, isn't
it. I don't think he could say

1119
01:33:57.239 --> 01:34:00.880
that for Tim Beckham because Peop doesn't
want to leave Tokyo. We can make

1120
01:34:00.920 --> 01:34:10.399
that happen pretty quickly, within like
twelve minutes. Um. But the other

1121
01:34:10.640 --> 01:34:15.439
the other thing was that in the
third inning, Ken Griffy Junior came a

1122
01:34:15.520 --> 01:34:23.239
broadcasted inning um and he was just
so engaging, and it's like, oh,

1123
01:34:23.399 --> 01:34:27.840
yeah, that is why baseball was
great in the nineties was because their

1124
01:34:27.880 --> 01:34:34.960
best player was like charismatic as hell, easygoing, um like funny U Ryan

1125
01:34:35.039 --> 01:34:40.239
Healey hit a home run or they
were saying like, how did how could

1126
01:34:40.279 --> 01:34:42.079
you tell you know if you hit
a home run, and it's like,

1127
01:34:42.560 --> 01:34:45.119
um, could you just tell from
the sound of the bad And he was

1128
01:34:45.159 --> 01:34:47.319
like, uh no, I just
I just waited to see if the hitter

1129
01:34:47.479 --> 01:34:51.359
moved, if they stayed in the
box. I knew it was a home

1130
01:34:51.439 --> 01:34:57.560
run, and I didn't bother getting
in And Ryan healely hit a home run

1131
01:34:57.640 --> 01:35:00.880
in the game and they were like, would you have that ball? He's

1132
01:35:00.880 --> 01:35:06.239
like, no, did you see
a move? Like yeah, it sounds

1133
01:35:06.239 --> 01:35:10.079
like I need to go watch this
broadcast. Yeah. I don't think,

1134
01:35:10.520 --> 01:35:14.119
you know, I don't think his
opinions are like particularly sabre metric or anything.

1135
01:35:14.159 --> 01:35:18.119
But it was just like just like
right exactly. It was just like

1136
01:35:18.239 --> 01:35:21.560
such a delight to hear him back
in the game, and I kind of

1137
01:35:21.600 --> 01:35:25.640
wish he was more of a presence. I kind of wish more people were

1138
01:35:25.720 --> 01:35:30.159
like him and like each hero and
what a good game if you want to

1139
01:35:30.199 --> 01:35:34.560
know more about the game. I
also want to recommend one article by VP

1140
01:35:34.760 --> 01:35:40.880
alum new Fangrafs writer Rachel McDaniel on
the meaning of Each Hero. It's currently

1141
01:35:40.920 --> 01:35:45.159
on Fangraphs. I think she is
the best writer in baseball right now.

1142
01:35:45.239 --> 01:35:47.720
I think she's one of the best
writers right now. And we are just

1143
01:35:47.840 --> 01:35:53.560
lucky too that she is working in
baseball. Highly recommend that article if you

1144
01:35:53.680 --> 01:35:56.399
have not read it, but I
assume most of you, coming from VP

1145
01:35:56.560 --> 01:36:00.920
world are aware of her work.
Um. So with that, Jared,

1146
01:36:01.279 --> 01:36:04.319
how was your week? It was
a crappy week, not my favorite week

1147
01:36:04.399 --> 01:36:08.800
if I'm being honest, Um,
but I'm going to go back to the

1148
01:36:09.319 --> 01:36:12.920
meats for my best then, um, Ben, play along, don't worn

1149
01:36:13.000 --> 01:36:16.199
this if you know the answer here, Ben, what is a sloppy Joe?

1150
01:36:18.079 --> 01:36:23.079
Sloppy Joe? What are you what
are you picturing? Sloppy Joe is

1151
01:36:24.319 --> 01:36:30.479
ground beef cooked in a sauce that
keeps it from coalescing like a burger would,

1152
01:36:30.640 --> 01:36:33.760
but then served on a button like
a burger would be served, so

1153
01:36:34.000 --> 01:36:38.960
that it falls all over the place
when you eat it wrong. Ian,

1154
01:36:39.439 --> 01:36:43.039
would you have agreed with what Ben
says a sloppy joe is pretty muchly to

1155
01:36:43.119 --> 01:36:45.640
the letter. Yes, yeah,
so that's not a sloppy joe. Well,

1156
01:36:45.640 --> 01:36:47.600
okay, so that is a sloppy
joe. But if you're in northern

1157
01:36:47.680 --> 01:36:54.239
New Jersey, that's not what a
sloppy joe is. Sloppy joe is a

1158
01:36:54.439 --> 01:36:59.399
double decker sandwich on rye bread with
usually something on the order three kinds of

1159
01:36:59.439 --> 01:37:02.640
deli meats, cole slaw, and
Russian dressing. That is a sloppy joe.

1160
01:37:03.479 --> 01:37:09.399
And I was up in New Jersey
this past weekend and one of the

1161
01:37:09.479 --> 01:37:12.760
few good parts of it was eating
a sloppy joe. And I remember the

1162
01:37:12.840 --> 01:37:15.479
first time that my grandma tried to
convince me that, you know, this

1163
01:37:15.640 --> 01:37:16.199
is what a sloppy joe's is.
Like, no, Grandma, like,

1164
01:37:16.199 --> 01:37:18.960
I know what a sloppy joe is. It's like hammerger meat and a sauce

1165
01:37:19.039 --> 01:37:21.119
sort of thing. It's like,
no, this is sloppy jo's what we

1166
01:37:21.199 --> 01:37:26.079
call it. And that's what they
call it in um in New Jersey,

1167
01:37:26.920 --> 01:37:29.840
which is weird, but it's also
super delicious. Because Deli is good in

1168
01:37:29.920 --> 01:37:33.039
New Jersey in a way that it's
not anywhere else. But my favorite thing

1169
01:37:33.079 --> 01:37:36.880
that I saw this week is um
I was researching Sloppy Joe's just before this,

1170
01:37:38.079 --> 01:37:42.359
and I went to the Wikipeda page
for Sloppy Joe and then in pren

1171
01:37:42.399 --> 01:37:46.960
of the season New Jersey and on
the because it's got its own thing,

1172
01:37:47.279 --> 01:37:57.079
and the fourth the fourth paragraph on
the page talks about Jewish delis that featured

1173
01:37:57.319 --> 01:38:00.920
the Sloppy Joe in the fifties,
and one of them is Carpons Deli and

1174
01:38:01.079 --> 01:38:06.560
Passaic, which is the restaurant that
my family used to down on my grandma

1175
01:38:06.600 --> 01:38:12.920
side. So it was a pleasant
surprise seeing that up on Wikipedia. Oh,

1176
01:38:13.039 --> 01:38:17.640
congratulations on making Wikipedia. Um,
I hope this podcast is added as

1177
01:38:17.880 --> 01:38:24.079
at one day it does say citation
needed on Wikipedia, and I think I

1178
01:38:24.239 --> 01:38:33.319
just cited it. So it's incredible. All I like that. What is

1179
01:38:33.359 --> 01:38:38.920
it like seventeen percent of biographies are
women, but Sloppy show parentheses New Jersey

1180
01:38:39.680 --> 01:38:45.399
paragraphs. Great, well, there's
actually five paragraphs Carpons all right, so

1181
01:38:45.479 --> 01:38:49.000
everywhere everyone look at that. Um, okay, anything else from y'all?

1182
01:38:50.199 --> 01:38:55.159
All right? Um? Another another
great podcast. We'll be back soon.

1183
01:38:55.840 --> 01:38:59.319
Please send us your questions at score
Sheet at Baseball perspectives dot com. Love

1184
01:38:59.359 --> 01:39:01.319
to hear from you if you've made
it this far. Again, God bless

1185
01:39:01.800 --> 01:39:06.920
you were doing the Lord's work.
But it's so many day baseball starting.

1186
01:39:08.600 --> 01:39:13.239
Yeah, and we'll be back next
week with some baseball news. That's something

1187
01:39:13.359 --> 01:39:15.920
looked forward to. I hope you
all enjoy opening Day. Until then,

1188
01:39:16.359 --> 01:39:19.640
on behalf of Ben Murphy and Jaredwis
I mean Leftwitz. Thanks again and have

1189
01:39:19.720 --> 01:39:20.239
a great day.