WEBVTT 1 00:00:07.639 --> 00:00:12.400 Hey, everybody, Welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast, your home for cryptocurrency 2 00:00:12.439 --> 00:00:16.239 news and interviews. On your way in, please hit that subscribe button as 3 00:00:16.280 --> 00:00:19.239 well as the thumbs up button and leave a comment below. If you're listening 4 00:00:19.280 --> 00:00:23.679 on a podcast platform such as Spotify or Apple or wherever you get your podcasts, 5 00:00:23.679 --> 00:00:27.359 go ahead and hit that five star rating and leave a review. Folks. 6 00:00:27.399 --> 00:00:32.039 It's a very big week for the Etherorem spot ETF. This is going 7 00:00:32.079 --> 00:00:36.920 to be very interesting. What will scumbag regulator Gary Ginster and the SEC do. 8 00:00:37.560 --> 00:00:43.359 Will they approve or deny these ETFs because we have some very big players 9 00:00:43.560 --> 00:00:48.799 who are issuers of the Bitcoin spoty TF in the ETF race that includes Venek 10 00:00:49.039 --> 00:00:55.280 twenty one shares and arc hashtecks Racecale Investo and Galaxy, black Rock and Fidelity. 11 00:00:55.719 --> 00:01:00.439 Now, unlike the Bitcoin SPOTYTF situation, this is more complicated because there's 12 00:01:00.560 --> 00:01:04.879 questions as to if Etherorem is a security. Those are not questions I have, 13 00:01:06.239 --> 00:01:07.879 but these are things that are coming up from the SEC, and we're 14 00:01:07.879 --> 00:01:12.159 going to go through multiple reports and what different sources are saying. First, 15 00:01:12.280 --> 00:01:17.480 let's talk about the overall consensus and sentiment, because we see a lot of 16 00:01:17.519 --> 00:01:22.159 people are saying this is not going to happen. There's low confidence that this 17 00:01:22.280 --> 00:01:25.719 is going to get approved, and this is coming from many top analysts. 18 00:01:25.799 --> 00:01:30.319 So here's a headline from MarketWatch saying ether ETFs are unlikely to arrive this month. 19 00:01:30.480 --> 00:01:36.400 Get ready for more legal battles ahead. Here's what Emily Graffeo, reporter 20 00:01:36.480 --> 00:01:40.920 at Bloomberg, had to say my latest reporting on the spot ether ETF race. 21 00:01:41.200 --> 00:01:45.560 Some issuers are expecting a rejection next week because their private dialogue with the 22 00:01:45.640 --> 00:01:49.560 SEC hasn't been as robust as it had been prior to the approval of the 23 00:01:49.599 --> 00:01:56.920 spot bigcoin ETFs, So unlike the BITCOINSPOTYTF situation, there's been very limited dialogue 24 00:01:56.959 --> 00:02:00.040 and back and forth between the SEC and the issuers, so they're getting the 25 00:02:00.079 --> 00:02:04.879 feeling that this is not going to happen. Here's what Nate Garachi, president 26 00:02:04.959 --> 00:02:07.400 of the ETF Store, who has a ton of experience with ETFs, he 27 00:02:07.439 --> 00:02:13.639 said, SEC decision deadline this week on spot e ETFs. SEC must approve 28 00:02:13.719 --> 00:02:20.639 both the nineteen b nash fours exchange rule changes and s dash ones registration statements 29 00:02:20.680 --> 00:02:25.319 for ETFs to launch. Technically possible for SEC to approve nineteen B nash fours 30 00:02:25.680 --> 00:02:30.759 and then slow play s ones. Especially given the reported lack of engagement here, 31 00:02:31.439 --> 00:02:35.840 folks, it gets even more complicated. It's not just the dialogue, 32 00:02:36.039 --> 00:02:40.120 but what we saw is that Elizabeth Warren and Gary Ginster were colluding for months 33 00:02:40.159 --> 00:02:45.800 now to set the table for some sort of denial or delay here. If 34 00:02:45.840 --> 00:02:50.919 you go back up to March, we saw two Democratic senators sent a letter 35 00:02:50.960 --> 00:02:54.800 to Gary Ginster and the SEC saying no more ETFs, we have concerns about 36 00:02:54.800 --> 00:02:59.680 crypto, don't approve any more ETFs. When this news broke back in the 37 00:02:59.719 --> 00:03:02.919 middle of March, I told you guys, these random Democratic senators, they 38 00:03:02.919 --> 00:03:07.439 didn't just wake up and say we hate crypto, we hate ETFs. They 39 00:03:07.439 --> 00:03:13.360 were strategically placed to do that, to create the optics that it's not just 40 00:03:13.400 --> 00:03:15.919 Elizabeth Warren. But we know Elizabeth Warren is the one pulling the levers behind 41 00:03:15.919 --> 00:03:22.199 the scene. And their names were Democratic Senators Jack Reid and Lafonza Butler, 42 00:03:22.520 --> 00:03:27.120 and they urged the SEC to crack down on what they called alarming deficiencies in 43 00:03:27.159 --> 00:03:31.520 crypto market and disclosure, so essentially saying no more ETFs. So right away 44 00:03:32.000 --> 00:03:37.599 they were setting the table here for what we could potentially see this weekend. 45 00:03:37.599 --> 00:03:42.000 That is a denial. Now the other factor is literally a week later we 46 00:03:42.080 --> 00:03:46.919 got reports that the Etherorem Foundation was getting communications in the SEC, wells notices 47 00:03:46.960 --> 00:03:52.960 and all that stuff, looking to classify Etherorem as a security. Now that 48 00:03:53.159 --> 00:03:57.400 is a problem. Now a security can of course be in an ETF. 49 00:03:57.479 --> 00:04:00.319 But this could be Gary's optics, right, He's going to use this as 50 00:04:00.360 --> 00:04:04.759 an excuse like, hey, we're doing an investigation, we are in litigation 51 00:04:05.159 --> 00:04:10.159 with these folks, so we can't approve anything because there's too much uncertainty here. 52 00:04:10.520 --> 00:04:14.719 So once again Gainser's building his case here. What we also saw is 53 00:04:14.759 --> 00:04:18.160 that consensus, which of course also works on Etherorem. They said that they 54 00:04:18.279 --> 00:04:21.240 were getting communications in the SEC, and then what they ended up doing was 55 00:04:21.399 --> 00:04:27.199 suing the SEC. So what a mess the SEC has created. Because if 56 00:04:27.199 --> 00:04:30.920 you go back to under J. Clayton as the chairman of the SEC, 57 00:04:30.279 --> 00:04:33.879 Bill Hinman, which who reported to J. Clayton and got his approval, 58 00:04:34.079 --> 00:04:40.240 said Etherorem is not a security. Gary Genser refuses to ecodose statements and he 59 00:04:40.319 --> 00:04:44.639 refuses to even say a word to even Congress, right, Patrick McHenry asked 60 00:04:44.680 --> 00:04:47.439 them, sir, is ETHERRM as security or not? And Gary did not 61 00:04:47.680 --> 00:04:53.160 want to answer. So what a complete mess. So we could see Gary 62 00:04:53.199 --> 00:04:59.079 Ginser delay the ETFs and use these things as excuses. And remember the only 63 00:04:59.160 --> 00:05:03.199 reason the Bitcoin spot ETFs got approved in the first place is because the courts 64 00:05:03.240 --> 00:05:08.839 forced the SEC to do so. They called the SEC arbitrary and capricious, 65 00:05:09.120 --> 00:05:14.120 and it ended up being Gary Ganser's siding with Hester person market way to get 66 00:05:14.120 --> 00:05:18.879 the ETFs approved. Two Democratic commissioners denied it, right, so it was 67 00:05:18.920 --> 00:05:23.240 a three to two vote, so it obviously went through, but you still 68 00:05:23.279 --> 00:05:27.879 had two of them who said no. Unbelievable. Despite what the court said, 69 00:05:28.319 --> 00:05:30.800 they still chose to vote no. So this is what we're dealing with 70 00:05:30.920 --> 00:05:35.120 here. So there's certainly a major hurdle of the SEC. Now there are 71 00:05:35.199 --> 00:05:41.319 some who are still optimistic that this could get approved, and I don't think 72 00:05:41.360 --> 00:05:45.079 they're you know, right, you know, the probability of this getting approved 73 00:05:45.160 --> 00:05:47.439 is very low at this point. Now, it could still get approved in 74 00:05:47.480 --> 00:05:54.680 this market cycle. But here coinbase says market underestimating timing and odds of Spot 75 00:05:54.720 --> 00:06:00.720 ETHEREMYTF, this is a statement by coinbase analyst David Hahn, a quote he 76 00:06:00.759 --> 00:06:03.600 says, we think the market may be underestimating the timing and odds of a 77 00:06:03.639 --> 00:06:09.839 potential approval on roads in a Thursday report, Ether may yet have the potential 78 00:06:09.879 --> 00:06:13.879 to surprise to the upside in the coming months and does not appear to have 79 00:06:13.959 --> 00:06:19.439 major sources of supply side overhangs such as a token unlocks or minor cell pressure. 80 00:06:19.680 --> 00:06:24.600 Now, Coinbase, it's in their best interest to say these things, 81 00:06:24.720 --> 00:06:28.600 right, because they're building on etheroreum and etherorem is, you know, probably 82 00:06:28.639 --> 00:06:32.759 the most or the second traded assets out there behind bitcoin, so they're making 83 00:06:32.800 --> 00:06:38.600 money off of this. Do I think that we may see an etheroremist body 84 00:06:38.639 --> 00:06:41.959 t have in this bullmarket cycle later in the bull market cycle? I think 85 00:06:42.000 --> 00:06:45.000 so. I think so. Now, I'm not giving it one hundred percent 86 00:06:45.040 --> 00:06:47.920 probability. I'll say sixty percent, right, so more than fifty percent. 87 00:06:48.120 --> 00:06:50.920 But I don't think we see it this week. But you never know, 88 00:06:51.120 --> 00:06:55.519 right, we could get surprised, maybe folks, and hear me out now, 89 00:06:55.800 --> 00:06:59.759 maybe Gary doesn't want to get sued by black Rock, Fidelity, Arc, 90 00:07:00.079 --> 00:07:01.800 all of the above, great gray scale and so forth, with the 91 00:07:01.800 --> 00:07:05.959 bitcoin ETF situation, it was only gray scale suing them. Now you have 92 00:07:06.439 --> 00:07:13.240 massive Wall Street powerhouses who have huge legal teams, tons of money and resources 93 00:07:13.240 --> 00:07:16.000 and so forth, who can tie you up in litigation. Does Gary want 94 00:07:16.000 --> 00:07:19.959 to deal with that? I think the question goes back to Elizabeth Warren and 95 00:07:20.480 --> 00:07:25.399 you know how hard of a stance is she taking here? Maybe the losses 96 00:07:25.519 --> 00:07:29.519 they took last week with the Senate repealing SAB one two one, and then 97 00:07:29.759 --> 00:07:32.000 in the previous week the House repealing SAB one to one, the narrative and 98 00:07:32.079 --> 00:07:38.680 optics changing for them, maybe they back down a bit, right, Who 99 00:07:38.680 --> 00:07:42.000 knows? These are the questions and things are going to happen this week. 100 00:07:42.040 --> 00:07:46.000 It's it's very fascinating, folks. Also, yesterday I shared with you guys 101 00:07:46.000 --> 00:07:54.000 crypto wizards analysis about etherorem saying, look, the theorem ETF denial is priced 102 00:07:54.040 --> 00:07:57.399 in and ETH has been bleeding, you know, on the bitcoin chart, 103 00:07:57.680 --> 00:08:01.199 the eth the bitcoin chart, so it is forming a falling wedge, which 104 00:08:01.240 --> 00:08:03.920 is bullish. And he said, look, we could see a breakout to 105 00:08:05.040 --> 00:08:09.079 fifty one hundred over the next couple months, of course, so things are 106 00:08:09.160 --> 00:08:13.399 still going to move forward with the market so we'll see what happens. It's 107 00:08:13.519 --> 00:08:16.319 it's fascinating. There's so many things here. We're going to talk about the 108 00:08:16.439 --> 00:08:20.759 fit bill vote coming up as well. But quick word from our sponsor, 109 00:08:20.759 --> 00:08:24.600 and that is Bitgo. 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So if you'd like 118 00:08:58.639 --> 00:09:01.360 to learn more about bidgo, visit bitgo dot com or check out the link 119 00:09:01.440 --> 00:09:05.080 in the description. Now, folks, the other big thing happening this week 120 00:09:05.200 --> 00:09:11.960 is the FIIT twenty one crypto regulation bill in the House. What a week 121 00:09:11.200 --> 00:09:16.480 that's coming up, right, and the so called FIT twenty one, legislation 122 00:09:16.559 --> 00:09:20.039 to establish a US regulatory regime for digital assets, is set for a floor 123 00:09:20.120 --> 00:09:24.159 vote next week, and the sector is telling House leaders the effort is crucial. 124 00:09:24.559 --> 00:09:30.559 So many industry powerhouses and leaders send a letter to the folks in the 125 00:09:30.600 --> 00:09:35.159 House saying we got to get this through, including coinbased cracking Andreeson Horowitz Digital 126 00:09:35.159 --> 00:09:39.320 Currency Group in about fifty others. Now, this bill would set the CFTC 127 00:09:39.440 --> 00:09:45.279 as the leading regulator of digital assets as it sets out clear divisions for what 128 00:09:45.320 --> 00:09:48.399 the CFTC will handle and what would fall under the reach of the SEC. 129 00:09:48.840 --> 00:09:54.679 It would establish consumer protections, including rules around custody of customers assets and their 130 00:09:54.720 --> 00:10:00.279 treatment in bankruptcy, and set up further guardrails against risky behavior. So, 131 00:10:00.320 --> 00:10:01.320 of course, this is what we've been talking about for a long time, 132 00:10:01.360 --> 00:10:07.440 folks. We need balance regulations, allows for innovation, protects consumers right, 133 00:10:07.720 --> 00:10:13.320 and it clearly delineates between the SEC and CFDC duties and who has to do 134 00:10:13.519 --> 00:10:18.559 what. And I believe more power needs to go to the CFDC because they're 135 00:10:18.559 --> 00:10:22.039 not as politically driven. Don't get me wrong, they are politically driven to 136 00:10:22.080 --> 00:10:24.159 some degree. A lot of the federal agencies are, but we see the 137 00:10:24.200 --> 00:10:30.039 SEC has been rotten at its core, led by scumbag regulator Gary Ganser. 138 00:10:30.480 --> 00:10:33.840 So this is a big time vote. And folks, if this makes it 139 00:10:33.879 --> 00:10:39.120 out of the House, it will be historic, the first comprehensive crypto market 140 00:10:39.120 --> 00:10:41.559 structure bill coming out of the House. It will be historic. Now, 141 00:10:41.639 --> 00:10:45.919 I don't think it makes it to the Senate right away. We got the 142 00:10:45.960 --> 00:10:48.480 election coming up, and I think it needs to be merged with Senator Lummis 143 00:10:48.480 --> 00:10:52.960 and Jillibrand's bill, and I think maybe we get something through the Senate next 144 00:10:54.039 --> 00:10:58.240 year. But getting out of the House will be a massive loss for Elizabeth 145 00:10:58.240 --> 00:11:03.279 Warren and Gary Gantszer and could really put them back on their heels and it 146 00:11:03.279 --> 00:11:09.480 would be very bullish for the market. Now here's what Ryan Selkis of Missuri 147 00:11:09.600 --> 00:11:13.919 had to say regarding this, because there's so many layers to this political crypto 148 00:11:15.200 --> 00:11:18.639 mashup here, right, he said, the FT twenty one vote this week 149 00:11:18.679 --> 00:11:22.360 will be a big one in DC. We'll see if crypto remains a partisan 150 00:11:22.399 --> 00:11:26.759 football. It's a legacy defining moment for a representative. Maxine Waters plus Waters 151 00:11:26.879 --> 00:11:31.240 vote will likely make or break hockeing Jeffrey's chance at Speaker of the House for 152 00:11:31.320 --> 00:11:33.720 the next Congress. Why he says, there's three things you should know about 153 00:11:33.759 --> 00:11:37.919 the political dynamics of this vote. I'll unpack them all. Number One SBF 154 00:11:37.960 --> 00:11:43.159 Sam mcmcfried embarrassed the Democrats and Waters. Number two. As Waters goes, 155 00:11:43.399 --> 00:11:46.679 so does the Democrat conference. Number three, Liz warrens saw one to one 156 00:11:46.720 --> 00:11:52.240 rebuke opens the door for a potential landslide fit twenty one win. We saw 157 00:11:52.279 --> 00:11:56.679 the Democrats sided with the Republicans to repeal this both in the House and the 158 00:11:56.799 --> 00:12:03.000 Senate. Huge loss for Elizabeth Warren and Gary Genser. Number three the SBF 159 00:12:03.039 --> 00:12:05.960 picture, the one that Maxine Waters took with SBF. We know it's made 160 00:12:07.000 --> 00:12:09.919 the rounds. It's pretty famous. The truth is that Waters and McHenry talking 161 00:12:09.960 --> 00:12:16.639 about Patrick McHenry have had a cordial relationship and worked productively together for many years. 162 00:12:16.799 --> 00:12:20.440 Their approach to crypto has legitimately been a good faith, bipartisan effort. 163 00:12:20.840 --> 00:12:26.120 Sam screwed it up. Number four. SBF was a master at the DC 164 00:12:26.279 --> 00:12:31.279 game, but his FTX fraud burned our DC friends. It allowed adversaries like 165 00:12:31.360 --> 00:12:35.519 Liz Warren to attack and force allies like Waters to retreat. Waters face pressure 166 00:12:35.559 --> 00:12:39.799 to step away from the FT twenty one when FTX collapsed and the GP took 167 00:12:39.840 --> 00:12:43.440 control of the House. Number five. This has led to a dynamic of 168 00:12:43.519 --> 00:12:48.320 written about, which is one Liz Warren shrieks about Crypto being evil to her. 169 00:12:48.360 --> 00:12:54.320 Henchmen slash staffers, and the Biden administration apply pressure from all angles Number 170 00:12:54.320 --> 00:12:58.279 three that leads to anti Crypto calls from the White House to House leaders like 171 00:12:58.360 --> 00:13:01.919 Waters. Sand in the Gears number six. Here, he says, I 172 00:13:01.919 --> 00:13:07.440 wrote about this dynamic in the Annual Thesis in which I broke down this source 173 00:13:07.519 --> 00:13:13.320 of Liz Warren's power. This is probably word for word the most precise political 174 00:13:13.360 --> 00:13:15.440 analysts, and he went through the whole thing. I'm not going to read 175 00:13:15.440 --> 00:13:20.279 through that for you guys. So he says, why drag Leader Representative Jeffries 176 00:13:20.279 --> 00:13:22.960 into this? I had the opportunity to look him in the eye explicitly call 177 00:13:24.000 --> 00:13:28.440 out the Warren White House Waters dynamic and ask a question. He said it 178 00:13:28.480 --> 00:13:31.919 would take time plus effort to bring Representative Maxine Waters around. He says, 179 00:13:31.960 --> 00:13:37.240 I wrote about the exchange number eight. I highlight that exchange for two reasons 180 00:13:37.279 --> 00:13:41.200 one. Representative Jeffries strikes me as a good, strong leader, even though 181 00:13:41.240 --> 00:13:46.080 I probably disagree with many of his policies. He defers to his committee chairs. 182 00:13:46.320 --> 00:13:50.000 Number two a one line stuck with me. He said that Waters has 183 00:13:50.440 --> 00:13:56.440 no shrinking violet to Lass number nine. There was a lot of subtext in 184 00:13:56.480 --> 00:13:58.879 the meeting, but to me, the punchline was politics, maybe a team 185 00:14:00.000 --> 00:14:03.960 sport. But Representative Maxine Waterers answers to no one in the Senate. That 186 00:14:05.120 --> 00:14:09.360 is why last week SAB one two one pressure was so critical. It's opened 187 00:14:09.360 --> 00:14:13.919 the door for a bipartisan FT twenty one vote. Number ten, Liz Warne's 188 00:14:13.960 --> 00:14:18.919 anti crypto crusade has been extremely costly for the Democrats. They should be irate 189 00:14:18.039 --> 00:14:22.480 at her bad faith engagement with the crypto industry. It will cost them the 190 00:14:22.559 --> 00:14:26.480 Senate, likely the White House, but might not cost them the House if 191 00:14:26.840 --> 00:14:31.000 FIT twenty one passes by two hundred plus votes. Now, he continues on, 192 00:14:31.080 --> 00:14:33.960 but I wanted to give you guys some perspective there and some insights. 193 00:14:35.679 --> 00:14:39.600 This is a very big week, folks, because this makes it out of 194 00:14:39.639 --> 00:14:43.480 the House. Democrats joined the Republicans again and continued this momentum that they use 195 00:14:43.840 --> 00:14:46.759 to repeal SAB one two one in the House and Senate. It's going to 196 00:14:46.799 --> 00:14:50.759 be d day for Elizabeth Warren and Gary Genzer. They were not going to 197 00:14:50.840 --> 00:14:56.879 have a good week, So fingers crossed. Even if Gary denies the ethereums 198 00:14:56.960 --> 00:15:01.240 body Tapps, he's losing the war. He may win that ethereomy you know 199 00:15:01.360 --> 00:15:05.080 etf battle right there, but he's losing the war here. So big things 200 00:15:05.120 --> 00:15:07.960 in the works, folks. I'm very bullish. I was in DC last 201 00:15:09.000 --> 00:15:13.480 week and crypto is a big topic. It can't be ignored. I've been 202 00:15:13.480 --> 00:15:16.960 telling you guys. It has become ubiquitous. We're seeing penetration in politics, 203 00:15:18.320 --> 00:15:24.200 pop culture, the traditional financial markets, society and much more. And no 204 00:15:24.320 --> 00:15:28.240 one can ignore it anymore, even in the political realm. Regardless of your 205 00:15:28.279 --> 00:15:31.279 party, Republican or Democrat, young, old, whatever you is, you 206 00:15:31.720 --> 00:15:35.000 got to talk about it, you got to bring it up. It's here 207 00:15:35.080 --> 00:15:39.600 to stay and it's only going to grow in prominence and awareness. So exciting 208 00:15:39.679 --> 00:15:41.919 times ahead. I would love to know what you guys think. Leave your 209 00:15:41.960 --> 00:15:43.720 thoughts and comments below. Folks, don't forget to check out my book, 210 00:15:45.039 --> 00:15:48.879 Rethinking Crypto to Crash of FTX and a rise of savor stronger digital assets. 211 00:15:48.919 --> 00:15:52.240 You can grab a copy on Amazon, paperback and digital. Buy a copy 212 00:15:52.320 --> 00:15:54.799 to support the podcast. Also buy some copies that give to your family and 213 00:15:54.840 --> 00:15:58.320 friends who want to learn about crypto. It touches on crypto's past, president 214 00:15:58.399 --> 00:16:03.600 and future, give some tips for investing in crypto, talks about tokenization, 215 00:16:03.759 --> 00:16:07.120 the big quinn etf rays, why Gary Ginz on the sec have been attacking 216 00:16:07.200 --> 00:16:11.480 the industry, why Sam mcn freed and FTX were not the ethos of crypto, 217 00:16:11.559 --> 00:16:14.200 and much more. Check it out, guys, grab a copy. 218 00:16:14.360 --> 00:16:17.799 Thank you for watching and listening, Thank you for your support, and I'll 219 00:16:17.840 --> 00:16:18.200 talk to you all later.