WEBVTT 1 00:00:30.039 --> 00:00:34.159 Welcome to mid Rats with sal from Commander Salamander an Eagle one from Eagle Speak 2 00:00:34.399 --> 00:00:39.119 at Seer Shore your home for a discussion of national security issues and all things 3 00:00:39.119 --> 00:00:45.280 maritime. And good day everybody. We appreciate you coming on board for another 4 00:00:45.560 --> 00:00:49.240 edition of mid Rats, and if you are with UH, if you're with 5 00:00:49.359 --> 00:00:52.799 us live, I like the extended invitation for you to scroll down to the 6 00:00:52.840 --> 00:00:55.560 bottom of the show page. That's where you will find it. Ink to 7 00:00:55.759 --> 00:00:59.679 that room. Got it up and running. We've already got ne C Lee 8 00:00:59.799 --> 00:01:03.159 and Paul sending the quarterdeck to welk you on board. And during the course 9 00:01:03.159 --> 00:01:07.519 of the show, if you have some observations you'd like to share, or 10 00:01:07.519 --> 00:01:10.799 if there's a question you would like for us to direct to our guests, 11 00:01:11.000 --> 00:01:14.840 that is the perfect place in which to put it. And today we're going 12 00:01:14.920 --> 00:01:19.079 to hit on one of the topics that since the doing show and twenty ten 13 00:01:19.200 --> 00:01:22.959 any chance we have to go back to we like it. We sometimes call 14 00:01:23.000 --> 00:01:29.280 it the unsexy but important because it's guilty on both charges. But what we're 15 00:01:29.280 --> 00:01:34.920 going to do today is we're going to look at some of the challenges involved 16 00:01:34.079 --> 00:01:38.319 with combat logistics because when you have a maritime power like the United States, 17 00:01:38.319 --> 00:01:44.280 and this navy that is looking for ways to sustain a fight against the land 18 00:01:44.359 --> 00:01:49.000 power that has four times the population as of last year or two years ago, 19 00:01:49.079 --> 00:01:55.480 a larger navy and is located on the other end of the huge pacific. 20 00:01:56.040 --> 00:02:00.439 Logistics are simply going to be a cornerstone to any operation you do, 21 00:02:00.799 --> 00:02:04.799 always has been, always will be. But as we'll talk about today, 22 00:02:05.439 --> 00:02:08.560 sometimes if you don't mention the obvious long enough, it can be forgotten or 23 00:02:08.560 --> 00:02:14.560 can be found inconvenient because the only reliable way you can get the amount of 24 00:02:14.599 --> 00:02:20.639 fuels, weapons and supplies that it takes to have a robustly sustainable force is 25 00:02:20.919 --> 00:02:24.319 by sea. And with your warships, combat logistics ships, do we have 26 00:02:24.400 --> 00:02:28.599 the force we need right now? And does our budget and our plans have 27 00:02:28.680 --> 00:02:32.800 some realistic requirements? And today we got a returning guest, doctor James Holmes, 28 00:02:34.280 --> 00:02:37.840 the J. C. Wilie Chair of Maritime Strategy at the Naval War 29 00:02:37.919 --> 00:02:43.000 College and a distinguished Fellow at the Brute Krulac Center for Innovation of Future Warfare 30 00:02:43.199 --> 00:02:46.840 at Marine Corps University. And we're going to use as a touchstone today and 31 00:02:46.879 --> 00:02:50.159 we'll go it's on the show page, but we'll put in the chat room 32 00:02:50.199 --> 00:02:53.439 too, an article that he recently had up at the Center for Maritime Strategy 33 00:02:53.719 --> 00:02:59.840 titled more combat Logistics four Ships. Yes please, James, welcome back to 34 00:02:59.879 --> 00:03:04.039 me. Threats gentlemen. Always a pleasure. It's been it's been way too 35 00:03:04.080 --> 00:03:07.879 long, it surely has, and it's just going to be a pleasure having 36 00:03:07.879 --> 00:03:12.280 you on board for the next hour to talk about the un sexy and important 37 00:03:12.280 --> 00:03:15.759 that we always like talking about here, and just to kind of kick things 38 00:03:15.759 --> 00:03:19.479 off. I mentioned the article that tapped me on the shoulders. Back man, 39 00:03:19.479 --> 00:03:22.919 we got to get James back on to talk about this. What what 40 00:03:23.120 --> 00:03:29.039 brought you to to put out a page worth a thought on combat logistics sports 41 00:03:29.080 --> 00:03:35.240 ships. Well, it's it's pretty it's pretty straightforward. I very seldom pushed 42 00:03:35.280 --> 00:03:38.840 material, let anybody any board, but whenever somebody asked me for material, 43 00:03:38.039 --> 00:03:42.560 I always give it to them. The Center for Maritime Strategy at the Navy 44 00:03:42.639 --> 00:03:46.759 League has been it's it's a fairly new creation. They are very they are 45 00:03:46.840 --> 00:03:50.400 very aggressive and so forth. And they got in touch and asked me if 46 00:03:50.400 --> 00:03:53.479 I would say something about the size of the of the combat logistics fleet, 47 00:03:53.840 --> 00:03:57.879 which I think is uh which I think is well. I always have to 48 00:03:57.919 --> 00:04:01.680 say it's way too small. I mean it's the the the I guess the 49 00:04:01.680 --> 00:04:04.199 the theme of the pieces. Basically, if you lose the merchant fleet, 50 00:04:04.240 --> 00:04:08.280 if you lose the logistics fleet, you lose the war. The uh. 51 00:04:08.680 --> 00:04:11.639 So I did some scattering around and tried to estimate. I think I came 52 00:04:11.680 --> 00:04:15.560 up with an accurate figure of how many ships we have available for sea left 53 00:04:15.599 --> 00:04:18.439 in wartime. I can't I can't. I can't swear. I can't swear 54 00:04:18.480 --> 00:04:21.319 that it's an accurate figure. But nobody, nobody's been in touch to say 55 00:04:21.319 --> 00:04:24.680 I'm wrong. So I just so I take it that I'm at least in 56 00:04:24.759 --> 00:04:27.839 the ballpark. And you know what, we we lost it that we lost 57 00:04:27.839 --> 00:04:30.920 about twice as many ships as we currently have in the inventory in the first 58 00:04:30.920 --> 00:04:35.399 six months of World War two, uh A damaged or song. And that's 59 00:04:35.240 --> 00:04:39.439 just so, that's just we are in We are in serious danger, in 60 00:04:39.480 --> 00:04:44.600 a serious danger zone on the ability to rete stage forces forward and then to 61 00:04:44.639 --> 00:04:47.319 sustain them once once they're out there. So it's so if it if it 62 00:04:47.319 --> 00:04:50.920 does anything to to help wake up wake up people in Washington, and elsewhere 63 00:04:50.959 --> 00:04:55.240 in the country. I think it's I would be very pleased with that. 64 00:04:57.319 --> 00:04:59.920 Well. I think one of the things you've touched on in your article that 65 00:05:00.000 --> 00:05:05.040 it's important is that the Chinese have learned from the Japanese. We think they've 66 00:05:05.120 --> 00:05:13.800 learned from the Japanese experience of not attacking the US logistics train, and you 67 00:05:13.839 --> 00:05:18.519 point out that that that may be a rather large issue for us to address. 68 00:05:19.360 --> 00:05:21.800 Kind of talk about that a little bit, because before we get into 69 00:05:21.800 --> 00:05:27.480 the the combat logistics for a shortages, let's just talk a little bit about 70 00:05:27.480 --> 00:05:30.759 the threats that they may face. Yeah, that's absolutely right. I mean, 71 00:05:31.160 --> 00:05:33.720 it's it's one of the it's one of the perennial mysteries that we talk 72 00:05:33.759 --> 00:05:38.360 about, especially in our intermediate level course here in Newport, which is which 73 00:05:38.399 --> 00:05:42.600 is pitched at the operational level. Going into going into World War two in 74 00:05:42.639 --> 00:05:46.920 the Pacific, Japan had a had a force of fleet submarines roughly comparable to 75 00:05:46.000 --> 00:05:48.720 our own, and yet they did not do what we did, which was 76 00:05:48.759 --> 00:05:53.600 so basically, I mean literally, on December seventh, the Admiral Stark, 77 00:05:53.639 --> 00:05:57.000 the Chief and Naval Operations, Orders the orders the submarine fleet out into the 78 00:05:57.040 --> 00:06:00.959 Pacific to attack anything flying a Japanese flag where they're it's a battleship, whether 79 00:06:00.000 --> 00:06:04.759 it's a carrier or especially if it's a merchantman, a merchantman basically carrying supplies 80 00:06:04.759 --> 00:06:09.199 to and fro within the Japanese Empire. I mean that's literally the center of 81 00:06:09.240 --> 00:06:12.920 gravity. Literally, the merchant fleet was the center of gravity for the Japanese 82 00:06:12.920 --> 00:06:16.240 Empire simply because it was an island empire with possessions that had conquered overseas, 83 00:06:16.319 --> 00:06:19.600 and it simply had to have simply had to have that sort of connectivity along 84 00:06:19.639 --> 00:06:24.879 the sea lanes in order to in order to supply the economy and all the 85 00:06:24.920 --> 00:06:29.480 things that the japan needed to do. But they simply did not use they 86 00:06:29.519 --> 00:06:33.199 did not use it determinedly in order to attack our logistics train. As you 87 00:06:33.240 --> 00:06:36.519 pointed out, I don't. I mean there's a lot of there's a lot 88 00:06:36.519 --> 00:06:41.720 of potential reasons for that. It seems totally I've always had a hard time 89 00:06:41.720 --> 00:06:44.199 making sense out of it. But there was something, there was certainly something 90 00:06:44.199 --> 00:06:49.040 in the Japanese warrior culture which inhibited them from thinking about thinking a merchantman as 91 00:06:49.040 --> 00:06:54.800 as being something an important thing. Japanese submarines were all a submarine skippers and 92 00:06:54.839 --> 00:06:58.519 crews were all about trying trying to sink warships and it just didn't work out 93 00:06:58.560 --> 00:07:03.240 for them as very well, whereas the US Submarine Force sub did quite well. 94 00:07:03.319 --> 00:07:08.240 Thank over eleven hundred vessels of all types that by the time of World 95 00:07:08.279 --> 00:07:12.560 War two wound down, including not just I mean so eleven hundred merchantmen and 96 00:07:12.560 --> 00:07:15.120 then various warships and then and it was just a it's just a devastating blow 97 00:07:15.199 --> 00:07:20.000 to Japan. One thing. One thing. My friend and co author Toshiyoshahar 98 00:07:20.160 --> 00:07:24.839 did a he recently did a monograph down at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary 99 00:07:24.879 --> 00:07:30.759 Affairs basically looking at the lessons that Chinese strategists, Chinese analysts have drawn out 100 00:07:30.800 --> 00:07:32.600 of the Pacific War. And I guarantee you that's a that's a big one 101 00:07:32.680 --> 00:07:36.199 is go after that, go after the logistics train, and dust impose a 102 00:07:36.279 --> 00:07:40.360 cost on the United States. That way, if you gave me command of 103 00:07:40.360 --> 00:07:44.160 the PLA today, I would take that anti access in the area denial network 104 00:07:44.199 --> 00:07:46.279 they have that they have constructed over the last twenty five years. I would 105 00:07:46.279 --> 00:07:50.360 actually target the logistics fleet and ignore the battle fleet in a sense something because 106 00:07:50.560 --> 00:07:54.519 as people as people in this audience well know as well as as well as 107 00:07:54.560 --> 00:07:57.480 you do. If you if you take away the logistics, the fleet goes 108 00:07:57.480 --> 00:08:00.720 away within a few days. Even a nuclear power come back and is I 109 00:08:00.720 --> 00:08:03.199 mean it's still in these regular resupply if it's especially if it's an aircraft carrier 110 00:08:03.240 --> 00:08:07.879 that has an air wing that is that is thirsty for fuel. So even 111 00:08:07.920 --> 00:08:11.120 even even carriers are not going to be able to sustain their presence in their 112 00:08:11.120 --> 00:08:16.720 Western Pacific, in China's backyard, it deprived of that logistical supports. It's 113 00:08:16.920 --> 00:08:20.600 so I think that's uh. I think the historical, the historical element element 114 00:08:20.639 --> 00:08:24.000 is huge. Our Chinese friends are ardent students of history. I don't always 115 00:08:24.040 --> 00:08:28.800 agree with the conclusions they draw from studying it, but they oftentimes do draw 116 00:08:30.079 --> 00:08:33.759 conclusions that are very helpful for them in the operational sense. And I think 117 00:08:33.759 --> 00:08:37.840 this is one of those. And it doesn't just apply to the sea and 118 00:08:37.279 --> 00:08:41.039 going back to World War two, you know, that's one of the you 119 00:08:41.080 --> 00:08:46.320 know, constant lessons through all of written history and the the Chinese culture has 120 00:08:46.360 --> 00:08:48.679 a longer history than ours do. They were they were writing stories while my 121 00:08:48.759 --> 00:08:58.080 ancestors were still chasing sheep around Scotland barefoot and mud huts. But yeah, 122 00:08:58.440 --> 00:09:03.759 if if you have a strong force that you don't want to fight, you 123 00:09:03.799 --> 00:09:07.720 starve it to death. You don't let it feed itself, you don't let 124 00:09:07.799 --> 00:09:13.320 it get fresh water. And that translates into to combat effect in this and 125 00:09:13.000 --> 00:09:16.919 even short term history. I was I was thinking as I was getting ready 126 00:09:16.919 --> 00:09:20.919 for the show. A real good friend of mine from college, you graduated 127 00:09:20.480 --> 00:09:24.600 a couple of years behind me, But he made the mistake of going Air 128 00:09:24.639 --> 00:09:30.080 Force Rozzi as opposed to Navy Rozzi. But he's about to retire after thirty 129 00:09:30.120 --> 00:09:35.000 two years of active duty, and he joined right after Desert Storm. And 130 00:09:35.039 --> 00:09:39.879 that you have an entire generation of officers who as Jo's when you're so, 131 00:09:39.960 --> 00:09:43.559 they weren't even thinking in the nineteen nineties because they were just trying to get 132 00:09:43.600 --> 00:09:46.279 their getting their calls and getting up on step. But we have an entire 133 00:09:46.279 --> 00:09:54.279 generation of leaders who grew up in that post Cold War end of history. 134 00:09:54.480 --> 00:10:00.799 Six sigma just in time delivery, and we have saw an incredible shrinking of 135 00:10:00.840 --> 00:10:03.919 our logistics force, and we had a lot of our resupply ships went from 136 00:10:05.039 --> 00:10:09.519 USS to us NS, which is almost a great argument to get in with 137 00:10:09.600 --> 00:10:16.879 people after a few beers, But we find ourselves having to look again at 138 00:10:16.039 --> 00:10:20.440 what it means. You know, we don't have the Red Band or Northern 139 00:10:20.440 --> 00:10:24.679 Fleet of the Soviet Union to run things again. But the People's Republic of 140 00:10:24.799 --> 00:10:30.159 China, their navy and their rocket forces, they have it snuck up on 141 00:10:30.240 --> 00:10:37.480 everybody. But as the distractions of the dust of all the distractions in Central 142 00:10:37.519 --> 00:10:41.960 Asia start to fade, even though we're now worried about Ukraine and Israel and 143 00:10:41.960 --> 00:10:45.559 everything else, when you look at the force the Chinese have, and you 144 00:10:45.600 --> 00:10:52.000 bring this up in your article, it's not just your nineteen nineties NBA just 145 00:10:52.039 --> 00:10:58.759 in time delivery of peacetime supplies and training supplies. We need to think about 146 00:10:58.039 --> 00:11:01.879 what we need for sustained operations, but also to do something that people don't 147 00:11:01.960 --> 00:11:05.080 like to talk about. But you mentioned it right in your opening, that's 148 00:11:05.200 --> 00:11:11.840 combat loss. That means we can't have a quote efficient combat logistics force. 149 00:11:11.279 --> 00:11:16.120 We need something that is resilient and for lack of a better phrase, had 150 00:11:16.120 --> 00:11:20.480 a lot of redundancy. And you know, those numbers I think could be 151 00:11:20.559 --> 00:11:24.799 really interesting to play out absolutely and I hope. I certainly hope as we're 152 00:11:24.840 --> 00:11:28.200 doing wargaming. I don't do any classified work at also, so I can't 153 00:11:28.200 --> 00:11:31.639 say with any real precision of what's going on in wargaming. I know I 154 00:11:31.679 --> 00:11:35.519 know that I know that war gaming here in Newport is going on all the 155 00:11:35.519 --> 00:11:37.960 time, and I'm sure it is that at similar places around the country. 156 00:11:39.000 --> 00:11:43.600 I've I'm contested logistics in particular, but I certainly hope that we were building 157 00:11:43.639 --> 00:11:45.960 in that look like like you said, you don't you don't need to be 158 00:11:46.000 --> 00:11:50.120 efficient. You need to be effective, and that means redundancy. And that's 159 00:11:50.279 --> 00:11:52.519 for anybody who's ever been an engineer, as you all have. As you 160 00:11:52.600 --> 00:11:56.679 all have, you always want to have a spare at least one's fare for 161 00:11:56.759 --> 00:12:00.799 everything, simply because you're going to probably the chances are being what it is, 162 00:12:00.840 --> 00:12:03.200 you're gonna you're gonna need that spare and you're gonna lose the primary the 163 00:12:03.480 --> 00:12:07.120 uh and you sort of hit it. In fact, you and I have 164 00:12:07.159 --> 00:12:09.600 been you and Buy for a long time have been running on parallel tracks on 165 00:12:09.720 --> 00:12:13.919 the you're talking about that basically that forgetful Are era right after the Cold War, 166 00:12:15.000 --> 00:12:18.399 at the end of his the end of history esus. You saw it. 167 00:12:18.480 --> 00:12:20.279 I saw it when I was teaching here in swats I was back after 168 00:12:20.320 --> 00:12:24.120 Desert Storm. I was back in Newports. It's just to teach engineering. 169 00:12:24.360 --> 00:12:28.200 And in nineteen ninety two I remember being handed a copy of a little book 170 00:12:28.320 --> 00:12:31.000 called From the Sea, which was basically the Navy and the Marine corps first 171 00:12:31.000 --> 00:12:35.919 effort to make strategy for the post Cold War era. And the preamble to 172 00:12:35.960 --> 00:12:39.840 that literally says, we own the sea for all time. I mean exaggerating 173 00:12:39.879 --> 00:12:43.600 slightly, but you can look online and it's it basically says the Soviet Navy 174 00:12:43.679 --> 00:12:48.279 is gone and there's no challenger on the horizon, and therefore we should reinvent 175 00:12:48.399 --> 00:12:52.120 ourselves into a force that no longer has to worry about fighting for command of 176 00:12:52.120 --> 00:12:54.679 the sea. We can basically assume that we can project power from the sea 177 00:12:54.759 --> 00:12:58.519 as a safe haven. And that's I think that's where you saw the just 178 00:12:58.559 --> 00:13:03.039 in time logistics and all that, and all those those sort of fads from 179 00:13:03.039 --> 00:13:07.279 the business, from the business world make their way into into naval operations. 180 00:13:07.399 --> 00:13:11.360 I think I think we've always been a little bit and you mentioned doctor Deming 181 00:13:11.399 --> 00:13:15.279 once in a while. I think that for some reason, the military services 182 00:13:15.279 --> 00:13:18.519 are very prone to to to leap at business fads. But that way, 183 00:13:18.519 --> 00:13:22.879 it felt like that was that was on steroids. If you did If you 184 00:13:22.919 --> 00:13:24.240 do that, if you say that, you own the seat and you don't 185 00:13:24.279 --> 00:13:28.279 have to worry about it being challenged at See at that point, at that 186 00:13:28.320 --> 00:13:31.480 point, you don't have to worry about the challenges to your logistical system. 187 00:13:31.519 --> 00:13:35.399 And if you if you stop worrying about that, preparing for that, building 188 00:13:35.440 --> 00:13:39.519 assets for that, you're really you're really setting yourself up for failure, because 189 00:13:39.320 --> 00:13:43.840 the next challenger is coming along, even if you don't know who it is 190 00:13:43.960 --> 00:13:46.000 or when it's coming. See better, you better, you better be ready, 191 00:13:46.080 --> 00:13:50.759 You better be fatalistic about about these things. If we get through this 192 00:13:50.799 --> 00:13:54.399 competition with China and Rossia, Iran and everybody else, I certainly hope we 193 00:13:54.440 --> 00:13:56.159 take that lesson away and put it to work for us in the future. 194 00:13:58.679 --> 00:14:05.960 Yeah. I having been on the on the Service Force Fleet during the Vietnam 195 00:14:07.000 --> 00:14:11.559 War off the coast of Vietnam, people do not understand how rapidly you go 196 00:14:11.639 --> 00:14:16.960 through a munitions I mean there were three or four carriers there, so we 197 00:14:16.960 --> 00:14:18.919 were I was on an amyship amoship. So we were re arming them at 198 00:14:20.039 --> 00:14:24.279 night and we were re arming destroyers during the day. And you know, 199 00:14:24.360 --> 00:14:28.480 we weave the country. Uh we ran out of ready ammunition, even though 200 00:14:28.519 --> 00:14:33.759 we had Subic Bay, which had a fairly large inventorious stuff in its bunkers. 201 00:14:35.279 --> 00:14:37.720 Uh, we ran a five and two. They were bringing that stuff 202 00:14:37.759 --> 00:14:41.879 in in C fives and and then we you know, they there were like 203 00:14:41.919 --> 00:14:46.399 two am ships on online. We had AoE S, we had AO R 204 00:14:46.559 --> 00:14:50.120 S, we had a brunch of oilers out there, and we were all 205 00:14:50.159 --> 00:14:54.879 busy as all get out. I don't I'm just convinced that people who didn't 206 00:14:54.360 --> 00:14:58.519 were weren't around, and we weren't contested either. I mean, this was 207 00:14:58.720 --> 00:15:03.240 this was just US bombing. We were contested a couple of times, but 208 00:15:03.720 --> 00:15:07.960 uh, this is just US bombing or shooting at Vietnam. I don't even 209 00:15:09.320 --> 00:15:13.879 I don't think anybody who hasn't gone through that kind of think gets glimpse or 210 00:15:13.960 --> 00:15:16.960 has an idea of how how bad things can be when everybody goes Winchester, 211 00:15:18.440 --> 00:15:22.440 especially since we have all these these ships now that thank goodness for trying to 212 00:15:22.480 --> 00:15:26.399 do something about it, but can't load their vertical lot cells. I think 213 00:15:26.879 --> 00:15:31.799 you know we're we are way short of what we need and way short of 214 00:15:31.960 --> 00:15:37.120 the capabilities we need to keep the fleet and action. And I'm sure you 215 00:15:37.120 --> 00:15:41.960 have thoughts on that. Yeah, it's and it's it's almost a what we're 216 00:15:41.960 --> 00:15:46.240 seeing today is almost a rhyme from the nineteen fifties. And and people out 217 00:15:46.279 --> 00:15:50.840 in the audience who haven't read this before, it's a nice short article from 218 00:15:50.000 --> 00:15:54.279 Samuel Huntington, who was a professor at Harvard, very very famous in the 219 00:15:54.320 --> 00:15:58.320 nineties for his for his book on the Class of Civilizations. But he in 220 00:15:58.399 --> 00:16:00.080 nineteen fifty four he wrote a book of the name, or not a book, 221 00:16:00.120 --> 00:16:04.679 but an article for the Naval Institute Proceedings, calling for the Navy after 222 00:16:04.720 --> 00:16:08.799 World War Two to reinvent itself as a transoceanic navy. And it almost feels 223 00:16:08.879 --> 00:16:11.919 like from the sea. He basically says, look, you get this huge 224 00:16:11.919 --> 00:16:15.440 fleet coming out of World War Two, You've sunk all your major competitors. 225 00:16:15.799 --> 00:16:18.399 Why don't you, Why don't you really? And you need a reason for 226 00:16:18.480 --> 00:16:22.000 being. You have to be able to put it to Congress and the American 227 00:16:22.000 --> 00:16:25.480 people and presidential administrations. Why do we need it? Why do we need 228 00:16:25.519 --> 00:16:30.720 a battle fleet, but he basically says the Navy should rein reinvent itself as 229 00:16:30.759 --> 00:16:33.720 a as a as a powered projection for uce that doesn't have to worry too 230 00:16:33.799 --> 00:16:37.919 much about about fighting for command of the seed. The Soviet Navy didn't really 231 00:16:37.919 --> 00:16:41.360 start becoming a thing until Admiral Gorshkov's era in the nineteen sixties, so for 232 00:16:41.720 --> 00:16:45.000 at least a few years there, we were sort of in the same mode 233 00:16:45.039 --> 00:16:48.840 that we've been. We've been in well for thirty years now. At this 234 00:16:48.879 --> 00:16:52.679 point, it's over over thirty years since the Cold War ended, so it 235 00:16:52.679 --> 00:16:56.559 feels like we have so it feels like that was sort of a sort of 236 00:16:56.600 --> 00:17:00.639 a premonition of what we have now, except that it's gone on way too 237 00:17:00.679 --> 00:17:04.359 far now. But yeah, I mean, and I think the Cold War, 238 00:17:04.440 --> 00:17:07.160 the course of the Cold War sort of confirmed what Huntington said, In 239 00:17:07.200 --> 00:17:11.640 the minds of most people there was that we didn't have to worry about we 240 00:17:11.640 --> 00:17:15.400 didn't have to worry too much about contested contested logistics or being challenged at see 241 00:17:15.400 --> 00:17:19.960 off Korea, Vietnam, or so forth. Into the nineteen seventies. At 242 00:17:19.960 --> 00:17:26.000 that point, at that point, people started getting religion, especially especially during 243 00:17:26.039 --> 00:17:29.720 the Arab Israeli War of nineteen seventy three, when it's when it became obvious 244 00:17:29.759 --> 00:17:33.279 that that the Soviet Navy had become a force to be reckoned with. At 245 00:17:33.279 --> 00:17:38.039 that point, the the the different Administration's President Ford, President Carter and so 246 00:17:38.119 --> 00:17:41.400 forth started getting started getting serious about that. And then of course we had 247 00:17:41.400 --> 00:17:45.640 the sixteen one hundred it's the six hundred ship navy build up in the nineteen 248 00:17:45.680 --> 00:17:49.119 eighties, and and that got us through. But it does feel like it 249 00:17:49.200 --> 00:17:53.680 does feel like history has repeated itself, except in a more virulent form. 250 00:17:56.839 --> 00:18:02.160 It's and you also, I think you have sometimes we can be our own 251 00:18:02.200 --> 00:18:06.599 worst enemy. And I think there can be well intentioned people, smart people 252 00:18:07.519 --> 00:18:12.359 who just have bad ideas. But sometimes bad ideas can have knock on effects. 253 00:18:12.400 --> 00:18:15.519 And I think the tide is receding here. You probably have a better 254 00:18:15.599 --> 00:18:18.000 view of it up at the War College, and we do down here in 255 00:18:18.039 --> 00:18:23.920 the provinces. But one thing that one of the windmills I tilt against whenever 256 00:18:23.920 --> 00:18:32.359 I get a chance is two of the higher profile advocates or sells people of 257 00:18:32.400 --> 00:18:37.160 this way of thinking is Bob Work and Michelle Flornoy and the whole thought that 258 00:18:37.200 --> 00:18:42.759 the best way to think about war in the Pacific was the seventy two hour 259 00:18:42.960 --> 00:18:48.039 war, where we have to prove and make it clear that if any war 260 00:18:48.160 --> 00:18:53.960 comes up first, seventy two hours would be so dramatic and so destructive that 261 00:18:55.000 --> 00:19:00.839 nobody would dare try to do that. Well, if you run your entire 262 00:19:02.559 --> 00:19:07.599 operation based upon assuming that you're only going to go seventy two hours, you 263 00:19:07.680 --> 00:19:15.279 can quickly talk yourself into not wanting or not seeing a requirement for a large 264 00:19:15.799 --> 00:19:23.599 merchant marine not to have requirements for a large combat sustainment force, because you 265 00:19:23.640 --> 00:19:29.039 say, well, everything's forward, and everything's going to go forward, and 266 00:19:29.200 --> 00:19:33.680 we'll be done in seventy two hours. Have you seen things similar to that 267 00:19:33.680 --> 00:19:41.200 that have helped people justify the state not just of our combat logistics sports, 268 00:19:41.240 --> 00:19:45.920 but in the merchant marine that we have that is supposed to back it up 269 00:19:45.960 --> 00:19:49.559 and defeat it. Yeah, that's a great question. I mean, you're 270 00:19:49.599 --> 00:19:52.000 not going to get to me to say the thing a negative about Bob Word, 271 00:19:52.000 --> 00:19:56.519 who's a friend of mine, was I think the idea of the seventy 272 00:19:56.559 --> 00:20:00.400 two hours at least I hope that this is the case. I mean, 273 00:20:00.440 --> 00:20:03.000 it's it's a great idea, but as you know, I mean, it's 274 00:20:03.359 --> 00:20:06.599 we hopefully live in the world in which the scientific method still holds. Way, 275 00:20:06.640 --> 00:20:08.640 I mean, that's to me, that's a proposition. It's a hypothesis 276 00:20:08.960 --> 00:20:12.240 that you should then rigorously test, I mean, be skeptical of it. 277 00:20:12.519 --> 00:20:17.039 Can we actually can we actually do that? And I think I think I'm 278 00:20:17.079 --> 00:20:19.079 with you on the on this particular one, because I mean, how many 279 00:20:19.079 --> 00:20:22.480 times or how many times in military history have you seen seen powers go and 280 00:20:22.599 --> 00:20:26.079 go into a conflict and assume, you know, make assumptions that were actually 281 00:20:26.079 --> 00:20:30.720 not not things that were self evident, they were simply a sort of me 282 00:20:30.960 --> 00:20:34.880 sort of mean is that that shape a particular combat and went into a into 283 00:20:34.960 --> 00:20:40.119 a conflict. So my answer is, if it's possible to do that, 284 00:20:40.119 --> 00:20:42.799 that's a very powerful deterrent. But to deterrent if you can communicate it to 285 00:20:42.880 --> 00:20:45.839 the other side. But I think that's uh. I mean, think about 286 00:20:45.880 --> 00:20:48.480 nineteen fourteen when all the powers thought that they were going to march off to 287 00:20:48.519 --> 00:20:52.079 a shoot to a short and inglorious war in Western Europe, and and and 288 00:20:52.119 --> 00:20:56.160 when the First World First World War. You gotta be very skeptical about that 289 00:20:56.240 --> 00:21:00.000 kind of stuff. If we can do it, if it's actionable, then 290 00:21:00.160 --> 00:21:02.880 fine, if we can't, but I think that but I think the we 291 00:21:03.119 --> 00:21:07.440 we ought to air on the side of skepticism just because so often what you 292 00:21:07.480 --> 00:21:11.359 think is going to happen. I mean, the adversary is going to change 293 00:21:11.359 --> 00:21:12.920 the nature of the war around you. I mean there's just furious things that 294 00:21:12.960 --> 00:21:18.000 can happen because your antagonists gets a vote in how you in how your war 295 00:21:18.079 --> 00:21:21.599 plans and your operations work out, and he's getta cast in against you. 296 00:21:21.720 --> 00:21:26.920 There's no question about that. Yeah. I think one of the other things 297 00:21:26.960 --> 00:21:33.279 that's kind of disturbing to me is that the the Red Hill Petroleum Facility in 298 00:21:33.400 --> 00:21:37.920 Hawaii is being closed. I'm not sure we have any kind of adequate system 299 00:21:40.559 --> 00:21:42.799 coming online it's going to take its place, except we're going to rent some 300 00:21:42.839 --> 00:21:49.240 big tankers and have them do something. But that just points out the necessity 301 00:21:49.319 --> 00:21:56.599 of having since most of the ships in the carriers now operate on some kind 302 00:21:56.640 --> 00:22:00.680 of fuel, having a system to get that fuel go forward. And uh, 303 00:22:00.880 --> 00:22:04.039 that means we have to protect seed lines. We talked about this a 304 00:22:04.039 --> 00:22:07.920 little bit, but you know, if if the bad guys have submarines that 305 00:22:07.960 --> 00:22:12.680 are capable of reaching to mid ocean or to the coast of Hawaii. Uh, 306 00:22:12.960 --> 00:22:15.599 then we're going to have to have escort ships, some kind of vessels 307 00:22:15.599 --> 00:22:22.480 that commandment. We could probably do something with phs and unmanned systems, but 308 00:22:22.640 --> 00:22:25.279 this, you know, this is much more complicated than just saying, okay, 309 00:22:25.319 --> 00:22:27.839 we need we need you know, five new AOEs and and then we'll 310 00:22:27.880 --> 00:22:32.000 solve all the problems. I mean, this is this is some some uh 311 00:22:32.920 --> 00:22:36.599 some brain poweries to be put on this. And and I'm assumed someone somewhere 312 00:22:36.680 --> 00:22:41.279 is running numbers, but I'm as a marine sergeant taught me one time, 313 00:22:41.319 --> 00:22:45.400 assuming is a very dangerous thing. Yeah. Well, you know what they 314 00:22:45.440 --> 00:22:48.640 say about the assumptions that make an ass out of you and me. I 315 00:22:48.680 --> 00:22:52.400 mean, that's that's that's that's that's concentrated wisdom right there. Yeah. And 316 00:22:52.640 --> 00:22:56.640 by the way, so I think of all the things of yours that I've 317 00:22:56.680 --> 00:22:59.400 read and in a long time, that was the most effective, the most 318 00:22:59.440 --> 00:23:02.519 effectives to me, that you that you that you did a few a few 319 00:23:02.559 --> 00:23:04.599 weeks ago when we had I can't even remember who it was, somebody had 320 00:23:04.680 --> 00:23:08.759 some of the Depentagon test is essentially testifying that closing the fuel dog, the 321 00:23:08.960 --> 00:23:14.160 fuel storage facility in Hawaii made no really didn't have any impire impact on our 322 00:23:14.200 --> 00:23:17.119 operations in the end of Pacific. I mean, that simply cannot be true. 323 00:23:18.079 --> 00:23:21.480 So it's the I mean, it's I mean, possibly it's true that 324 00:23:21.519 --> 00:23:23.319 we could work around it, but it seems really hard to really hard to 325 00:23:23.319 --> 00:23:26.880 believe. I mean that's I mean, that was one of the whatever. 326 00:23:26.039 --> 00:23:30.400 Whenever and Limits showed up and showed up on in late December of nineteen forty 327 00:23:30.400 --> 00:23:33.799 one, to take charge of the Pacific fleet, he looked around, and 328 00:23:34.160 --> 00:23:37.440 he looked around at the things that Japanese had done wrong, and that was 329 00:23:37.440 --> 00:23:41.319 one of them. They spent so much time working over the battleship fleet that 330 00:23:41.319 --> 00:23:45.279 they that they had not attacked the fuel storage facilities, which ended up being 331 00:23:45.319 --> 00:23:51.799 absolutely critical to our ability to stage and sustain operations in the Western Pacific against 332 00:23:51.880 --> 00:23:56.279 Japan. They simply had their they simply had their their centers of gravity wrong, 333 00:23:56.599 --> 00:23:59.599 and they went after the wrong thing something by attack, attacking things that 334 00:23:59.599 --> 00:24:02.920 were gonna I mean, battles were about to be so support assets and not 335 00:24:03.000 --> 00:24:07.799 the not the primary bearers of the battle fleet. But it's yeah, it's 336 00:24:07.079 --> 00:24:11.839 and I have not heard anybody. In fact, I'm not entirely sure i've 337 00:24:11.839 --> 00:24:14.720 heard anybody addressed to address that. It seems that we seem to be just 338 00:24:14.759 --> 00:24:18.200 sort of waving aside that reality that you're talking If you're talking about a massive 339 00:24:19.200 --> 00:24:25.880 increase on demand demand for shipping to transport to fuel and stores and ammunition and 340 00:24:25.920 --> 00:24:29.240 what not to the Western Pacific, so that has actually made things much worse. 341 00:24:33.480 --> 00:24:37.000 Yeah, Slim Mar Cogliano, I know you're familiar with and we've had 342 00:24:37.039 --> 00:24:42.599 them on here before. Right before the show, he mentioned a thread of 343 00:24:42.680 --> 00:24:47.799 his that he had up there, and uh, the second part of the 344 00:24:47.880 --> 00:24:53.160 thread, he has a demonstration about how those supplies ultimately get to a four 345 00:24:53.279 --> 00:25:00.680 deployed strike group or amphibious Readiness group is if not just your fast about support 346 00:25:00.759 --> 00:25:04.200 ship. That's stage three. And if you've you know, moving the stuff 347 00:25:04.240 --> 00:25:07.440 on to the warships, you can call that a fourth stage. But the 348 00:25:07.480 --> 00:25:12.400 second stage are the shuttle ships. And then you have the first age, 349 00:25:12.400 --> 00:25:17.200 which are those merchant ships which move it from the ports to where it needs 350 00:25:17.240 --> 00:25:21.720 to be, whether they're tankers or cargo ships, and if you know, 351 00:25:21.759 --> 00:25:26.640 we lose red hills like I. One of the things always frustrating me is 352 00:25:26.759 --> 00:25:32.119 I wish everybody didn't have an online you know, Google Earth Map, they 353 00:25:32.160 --> 00:25:36.480 had an actual physical globe in their office, because you really cannot appreciate the 354 00:25:36.519 --> 00:25:40.799 distance of the Pacific until you physically put your hands on a globe and have 355 00:25:40.920 --> 00:25:48.079 to rotate it. But that distance from La San Diego, Seattle to Hawaii 356 00:25:48.599 --> 00:25:53.000 is long enough. But if you can't even get what you need in Hawaii, 357 00:25:53.039 --> 00:25:57.880 then you've got to do that distance from the west coast of the US 358 00:25:59.079 --> 00:26:02.359 to Guam. That the heck of a reach. And to do that math 359 00:26:02.839 --> 00:26:06.839 you know, your your first aid and your second stage ships that just screens 360 00:26:06.880 --> 00:26:11.079 whatever you have. It's not enough because you've got another half of the ocean 361 00:26:11.119 --> 00:26:15.079 you simply have to cover. Yeah, absolutely, if it's sort of too 362 00:26:15.119 --> 00:26:19.160 it's sort of two things. I once the geograt once the geographic thing. 363 00:26:19.480 --> 00:26:22.799 I would, yes, everybody please get a globe. Yeah, I get 364 00:26:22.839 --> 00:26:26.279 an actual Globe's that I have one on my desk. I have one next 365 00:26:26.279 --> 00:26:30.799 to my next next to Archie Bunker's chair, here and here and here in 366 00:26:30.839 --> 00:26:34.000 Barrington that I that I use when I'm working at home. But if you 367 00:26:34.039 --> 00:26:37.119 don't have a globe, I want you to get out there and google Richard 368 00:26:37.200 --> 00:26:44.440 ads Harrison, Richard Aids being ed E. S Uh And the title of 369 00:26:44.440 --> 00:26:48.559 the book is The Fortune Atlas of Worlds of World Strategy, and it dates 370 00:26:48.559 --> 00:26:49.839 from the Second World War. He was he was a master. He was 371 00:26:49.880 --> 00:26:53.880 an absolute master of political cartography. If you get out there and you look 372 00:26:53.880 --> 00:26:56.640 at you look at those maps. A lot of those relief too, obviously 373 00:26:56.680 --> 00:27:00.640 because he was writing for a World War two audience. But he does things 374 00:27:00.680 --> 00:27:03.680 like he will zoom in and and he will show you what exactly I mean. 375 00:27:03.799 --> 00:27:07.200 For example, one of my favorites is that if you're looking from the 376 00:27:07.240 --> 00:27:11.720 Solomon Islands in nineteen forty two or forty three towards Japan, you're basically seeing 377 00:27:11.759 --> 00:27:15.680 just water and but but but anyways, there's just a lot of a ton 378 00:27:15.759 --> 00:27:19.000 of great imagery that will shape how you how you look at these at these 379 00:27:19.039 --> 00:27:23.039 problems, these problems of strategy, operations and tactics. So that's so, 380 00:27:23.119 --> 00:27:26.319 yeah, that's so, that's I mean, that's he was great at conveying 381 00:27:26.400 --> 00:27:30.720 ideas visually. And the other the other thing is, yeah, I mean, 382 00:27:30.759 --> 00:27:34.359 it's I mean, it's it's kind of disturbing. I don't you guys 383 00:27:34.359 --> 00:27:38.839 may be more plugged into this was but the Navy what was probably a couple 384 00:27:38.880 --> 00:27:42.359 of years ago that Admiral gil Day came out and came out and said that 385 00:27:42.359 --> 00:27:45.640 that these very these various merchant vessels, they're gonna go. They're gonna go 386 00:27:45.680 --> 00:27:51.359 without convoys. You don't because we don't have enough escorts to provide them with 387 00:27:51.599 --> 00:27:55.200 protection to get submarines or air attack or whatever whatever might be brought against them. 388 00:27:55.240 --> 00:27:57.839 I mean, that's really it seems like that's if you look back over 389 00:27:59.480 --> 00:28:02.799 certainly so that's certainly the last couple of centuries of history. It seems like 390 00:28:02.839 --> 00:28:07.000 that's one of the most forgetful areas is convoys. It seems like we're always 391 00:28:07.000 --> 00:28:08.440 that. It seems like we in the Royal Navy before us, are always 392 00:28:08.480 --> 00:28:11.319 forgetting the lesson that you have to have. You have to you have to 393 00:28:11.359 --> 00:28:15.880 do convoys, You have to supply convoy escorts in or in order for those 394 00:28:15.920 --> 00:28:18.960 things to get through. If anybody doesn't, if anything, the body doesn't 395 00:28:18.160 --> 00:28:22.960 believe that. I tried to find a copy of Greyhound with with Tom Hanks 396 00:28:22.960 --> 00:28:26.240 which of course takes place during World War Two. A wonderful film. It's 397 00:28:26.279 --> 00:28:30.160 not a lot of dialogue in it, but it really conveys exactly what it 398 00:28:30.200 --> 00:28:33.480 was like to do convoy escort duty and also in just also how critical it 399 00:28:34.200 --> 00:28:37.160 was, especially if you didn't have air cover in order to in order to 400 00:28:37.160 --> 00:28:42.559 to help fend offs submarines at see. But but yeah, I could Yeah, 401 00:28:42.559 --> 00:28:48.559 I couldn't agree more. Yeah, a few weeks ago, maybe months 402 00:28:48.559 --> 00:28:51.640 ago, I did a I just kind of was thinking about that. That 403 00:28:51.880 --> 00:28:56.440 exact issue is how do you if you don't have escort hips, uh like 404 00:28:56.920 --> 00:29:02.400 gray Ound, how do you how do you keep track of of your and 405 00:29:02.480 --> 00:29:06.240 what's the threat? I mean the the that the the churity of time and 406 00:29:06.279 --> 00:29:08.680 distance work both ways. With the Chinese they've got they've got the same issue 407 00:29:08.680 --> 00:29:14.039 we have in reverse. So where where do you have the where do you 408 00:29:14.039 --> 00:29:17.799 have the need for these escort vessels or or some kind of system. And 409 00:29:17.839 --> 00:29:19.680 that's that was what I was saying earlier, that that with the P eight 410 00:29:19.799 --> 00:29:23.720 and the range that has, you can probably cover most of the distance between 411 00:29:23.759 --> 00:29:30.640 Guam and Hawaii have provided you also have some kind of sensors out there keeping 412 00:29:30.720 --> 00:29:33.880 track, you know, like the unmanned stuff that could go along at the 413 00:29:33.880 --> 00:29:41.799 same speed as the is that some kind of uh uh supply force and as 414 00:29:41.839 --> 00:29:48.759 long as you had helicopters that are capable of of taking care of submarines. 415 00:29:48.079 --> 00:29:53.000 I mean, that's your that's your best hope, I guess. But uh, 416 00:29:53.839 --> 00:29:57.400 you know, I don't know if anybody else is thinking along those lines. 417 00:29:57.440 --> 00:30:00.559 I didn't get much feedback on that on that thing piece, and uh, 418 00:30:02.200 --> 00:30:06.240 maybe you don't have to write a stronger one down the road. Yeah, 419 00:30:06.240 --> 00:30:08.319 I mean it's a well, like I said, I I haven't done 420 00:30:08.319 --> 00:30:11.119 any well, I have done wargaming, but not on these on these topics 421 00:30:11.119 --> 00:30:15.960 and anytime recently. But the but yeah, if you do here, you 422 00:30:15.960 --> 00:30:18.799 you do hear disturbing rumors out of out of different war games that we're basically 423 00:30:19.559 --> 00:30:22.799 we're basically assuming that whatever you need, whatever stuff you need, whether it's 424 00:30:22.799 --> 00:30:26.440 fuel, oil or a fuel or ammunition or stores, is there at the 425 00:30:26.440 --> 00:30:30.359 time when you need it. And that's if that's the case. If that's 426 00:30:30.400 --> 00:30:33.359 a if that's if that's an assumption built into what we are telling ourselves, 427 00:30:33.359 --> 00:30:37.359 that's a that's a really dangerous thing. But yeah, so I mean, 428 00:30:37.559 --> 00:30:41.160 these are all hypotheses. I mean, it's you mentioned on manned I love 429 00:30:41.200 --> 00:30:44.880 the P I love the P eight, it's it seems like a wonderful airframe, 430 00:30:44.960 --> 00:30:48.200 and so and so forth. But if we are just assuming that these 431 00:30:48.200 --> 00:30:49.880 things are going to work as design, I mean, that's always I mean, 432 00:30:49.880 --> 00:30:52.440 that's that's just a hypothesis. You have to try to vet it, 433 00:30:52.480 --> 00:30:56.720 you have to try to falsify it. As Carl Popper told us a century 434 00:30:56.720 --> 00:31:00.000 ago, these these things are all theories, and theories theories exist to be 435 00:31:00.079 --> 00:31:03.559 debunked. If you can't debunk it, then at that point yet that sort 436 00:31:03.559 --> 00:31:08.119 of becomes your work, your working model. But I certainly hope we are 437 00:31:08.160 --> 00:31:12.319 being very ruthless with ourselves about trying to debunk our ideas about how we're going 438 00:31:12.359 --> 00:31:15.319 to do things in the end of Pacific. Because we don't do that, 439 00:31:15.400 --> 00:31:21.640 reality might do it for us. Yeah, it's the kind of what we 440 00:31:21.720 --> 00:31:26.200 mentioned before is well meaning people, smart people. They can have ideas, 441 00:31:26.279 --> 00:31:29.400 they're just not the they're not the right ideas. And it is that. 442 00:31:30.240 --> 00:31:34.759 I like how you mentioned the scientific method because I think one of the things 443 00:31:34.759 --> 00:31:44.279 that can can be a weakness is a a misuse of a very honorable characteristic 444 00:31:44.319 --> 00:31:48.920 we have in the military is a difference to seniority and being supportive of people 445 00:31:49.000 --> 00:31:52.440 up high. And you have very senior people if they don't work inside of 446 00:31:52.440 --> 00:32:02.359 a culture that encourages questioning and encourages wrecked challenging of ideas. You can have 447 00:32:02.640 --> 00:32:06.880 good ideas that they go forward, go forward, go forward, but they 448 00:32:06.880 --> 00:32:10.519 are because they're never really asked the hard questions. The hard questions are just 449 00:32:10.680 --> 00:32:15.119 kind of hand waved away. And you brought up something in your article that 450 00:32:16.640 --> 00:32:20.519 I hadn't really thought. I hadn't made the connection before, but when I 451 00:32:20.559 --> 00:32:23.039 saw it, I went, yeah, somebody needs to really work on that. 452 00:32:23.079 --> 00:32:28.440 And you can see hints for people have and that's the acronyms or us 453 00:32:28.480 --> 00:32:36.440 e ABO, the Marine Corps Expeditionary Advance based operations. If we are going 454 00:32:36.519 --> 00:32:44.480 to have a bunch of Marines scattered about the Pacific making a nuisance of themselves, 455 00:32:45.079 --> 00:32:51.559 that just creates a not just a more numerical challenge to keep them supplied, 456 00:32:52.200 --> 00:32:54.440 much less to get where they need to be. But that's where I 457 00:32:54.480 --> 00:32:59.359 think people are thinking about it, but also a different classes shit because what 458 00:32:59.400 --> 00:33:05.680 we have seen is therese combat support logistics ships that we have now they're huge. 459 00:33:06.079 --> 00:33:09.160 They're because they're big, they're very efficient in peace. But we've gotten 460 00:33:09.160 --> 00:33:14.279 to the point in some of our warship classes, like our anthems, that 461 00:33:14.799 --> 00:33:19.599 the loss of just one unit, it's not a tactical era, it's not 462 00:33:19.680 --> 00:33:23.200 even an operational concern. It can become strategic. So, okay, if 463 00:33:23.200 --> 00:33:29.119 we're going to do this with the Marines, where are the combat logistics support 464 00:33:29.279 --> 00:33:32.319 that will enable it. That's a hard question. I don't think anybody's answered 465 00:33:32.359 --> 00:33:39.119 yet. Yeah, I mean that's a well, let me let me make 466 00:33:39.119 --> 00:33:44.119 a philosophical point and then I'll come to the war operational point that you were 467 00:33:44.119 --> 00:33:45.599 talking about. Ideas. I mean, that's absolutely critical. I mean we 468 00:33:45.720 --> 00:33:50.240 we we really need to be self critical. It really in all phases of 469 00:33:50.240 --> 00:33:53.039 life, but especially in military affairs, just because the consequences are so great. 470 00:33:53.480 --> 00:33:55.960 Every every every term, when I have a new class come in, 471 00:33:57.000 --> 00:34:00.799 I bet, in fact, we just started. We just started Thursday. 472 00:34:00.799 --> 00:34:04.119 I want to say. On a new term. I always we sort of 473 00:34:04.119 --> 00:34:07.000 have an admin session where we say, you know, well, welcome to 474 00:34:07.039 --> 00:34:08.400 Newport. You know, here's where the here's where the head is here's where 475 00:34:08.400 --> 00:34:12.360 the here's where the food is, and so forth. But I always, 476 00:34:12.400 --> 00:34:15.480 I always tell my my new students that I have a hidden agenda for them 477 00:34:15.480 --> 00:34:19.760 that's not very hidden. Actually, I want to make the devil's advocates. 478 00:34:20.199 --> 00:34:22.039 And the reason I say that is because we need we need, we need 479 00:34:22.079 --> 00:34:25.880 opposition, we need to be skeptical of ourselves. In the in the medieval 480 00:34:25.880 --> 00:34:31.320 Catholic Church, the church, their church fathers, when they were considering a 481 00:34:31.360 --> 00:34:36.440 candidate for sainthood, they would appoint a liar to basically go out and dig 482 00:34:36.519 --> 00:34:40.320 up dirt on the candidate is and basically argue against the candidacy by by fair 483 00:34:40.440 --> 00:34:45.440 means or foul don't, and thus provide the church fathers the maximum amount of 484 00:34:45.480 --> 00:34:49.480 information they could have in order to make a wise choice about whether to make 485 00:34:49.519 --> 00:34:51.760 this person a saint. I mean, that's that's where the term this the 486 00:34:51.840 --> 00:34:54.840 devil's advocate comes from. Be the devil look or look for reasons that the 487 00:34:55.119 --> 00:35:00.920 that the prevailing idea or the our theory or hypothesis is not true. So 488 00:35:00.960 --> 00:35:02.880 I and so so I hope we were I hope we are grooming a generation 489 00:35:02.960 --> 00:35:08.360 of skeptic systems out there, and into the force, and just because I 490 00:35:08.360 --> 00:35:13.559 think even even even if the criticism is wrong, it doesn't really matter because 491 00:35:13.599 --> 00:35:16.719 it makes us think and it makes us smarter as a whole. So that's 492 00:35:17.360 --> 00:35:21.039 so, that's that's kind of my that's kind of my agenda for for all 493 00:35:21.039 --> 00:35:23.480 the younger generations. We're you and I, you and I and and you 494 00:35:23.559 --> 00:35:27.440 and I are and all of us are trying to raise the next generation. 495 00:35:27.800 --> 00:35:31.920 I hope we're raising a generation like that. But uh, but yeah, 496 00:35:31.960 --> 00:35:35.880 I mean, I mean, just all these ideas about how to support how 497 00:35:35.880 --> 00:35:38.199 to support forces of forces. I mean, you're quite right, and I 498 00:35:38.239 --> 00:35:42.039 have to once once again, I have no idea what the gaming is showing. 499 00:35:42.039 --> 00:35:45.079 But if you're gonna just if you're gonna do distributed operations, if you're 500 00:35:45.079 --> 00:35:49.679 gonna do expeditionary, advanced based operations and basically scattered forces all all over the 501 00:35:49.679 --> 00:35:52.559 theater, cases are you're not going to be able to rely on a on 502 00:35:52.400 --> 00:35:55.840 a on a huge on a huge job on a huge JEV logistics ship to 503 00:35:55.880 --> 00:35:59.280 go out there and supply all those things. Can you do it? On? 504 00:35:59.440 --> 00:36:00.280 Man? Can we can? We can? We have a new a 505 00:36:00.320 --> 00:36:04.519 new smaller class of ship. I mean exactly what there are the answers, 506 00:36:04.679 --> 00:36:07.079 and I don't have a clear sense of this. I mean, I hope 507 00:36:07.079 --> 00:36:09.119 it's going on in the classified world, but but I simply don't have a 508 00:36:09.119 --> 00:36:13.960 lot of competence that that's the case. Yeah, I was. I was 509 00:36:14.000 --> 00:36:15.679 amused by an article the other day. In fact, I did a blog 510 00:36:15.679 --> 00:36:20.920 post on it where not really amusing, but it's interesting. Uh. They 511 00:36:20.960 --> 00:36:25.639 had an oiler out refueling an unmanned ship. Uh, and the way they 512 00:36:25.639 --> 00:36:30.840 did that was it was a but yeah, it's pretty interesting. Uh. 513 00:36:31.440 --> 00:36:36.840 They put a team of sailors from the oiler on board the unmanned vessel and 514 00:36:36.840 --> 00:36:39.719 they rig up a hose that was towed to stern of the oiler for a 515 00:36:39.719 --> 00:36:45.440 stern refueling while underway. Interesting. Okay, yeah, I mean it wasn't 516 00:36:45.480 --> 00:36:49.960 alongside, But I guess, you know, you don't have a whole lot 517 00:36:50.000 --> 00:36:52.280 of choices if you're gonna do this operation. But I thought, well, 518 00:36:52.280 --> 00:36:57.800 somebody is thinking, you know, somebody is somebody has actually put two and 519 00:36:57.800 --> 00:36:59.559 two together and going, you know, if we're going to use these things, 520 00:36:59.559 --> 00:37:00.880 they're gonna out of fuel. We're going to have to find a way 521 00:37:00.920 --> 00:37:07.800 to refuel them. So that that that was good news. And despite what 522 00:37:07.920 --> 00:37:12.679 Lee says, he says unmanned logistics is an absurd concept. I don't think 523 00:37:12.679 --> 00:37:15.360 it is. I think you can do all kinds of things if you're creative 524 00:37:15.480 --> 00:37:17.800 enough, and we certainly have enough creative people. I agree with you. 525 00:37:17.800 --> 00:37:21.719 You know, somebody asked us, think, okay, what if we had 526 00:37:21.960 --> 00:37:28.159 very large semi submersible tankers that just popped up and somebody from the gets on 527 00:37:28.199 --> 00:37:30.239 board and sets up a fuel rig and you go from there. I mean, 528 00:37:30.280 --> 00:37:36.320 it's it's uh. Is that absurd? Is that totally impossible? You 529 00:37:36.320 --> 00:37:38.199 know? I think we need to think out I hate to say this because 530 00:37:38.400 --> 00:37:42.440 thinking outside the box is such a cliche, but we really need to think 531 00:37:42.800 --> 00:37:45.280 a little a little better about what the concerns are. What are how we're 532 00:37:45.280 --> 00:37:51.119 going to solve these problems, especially in days of limited manning and people who 533 00:37:51.119 --> 00:37:53.000 don't need to be interested in serving some you know, if we're going to 534 00:37:53.320 --> 00:37:57.119 grow the force, take care of the marines on the beach and all that, 535 00:37:57.159 --> 00:38:01.199 we really do need to look at at unmanned operations and and stealthy systems 536 00:38:01.199 --> 00:38:05.559 to get to get equipment ashore. I sure hope somebody is looking at that. 537 00:38:06.920 --> 00:38:08.679 Yeah, so why, I mean we that's from In fact, I 538 00:38:08.719 --> 00:38:12.239 would say this is not just a military thing. I think it applies a 539 00:38:12.280 --> 00:38:15.000 cost to all society these days. I mean, we we really need to 540 00:38:15.000 --> 00:38:17.159 get back to an experimental ethos in which in which we don't just sort of 541 00:38:17.159 --> 00:38:21.559 wave away difficulties. Because it feels like it feels like you read the daily 542 00:38:21.599 --> 00:38:24.519 news and just about just about every day, somebody somebody's just sort of making 543 00:38:24.559 --> 00:38:29.079 a leap from a from an idea to to a conclusion that this is what 544 00:38:29.079 --> 00:38:32.039 we should do. But yeah, absolutely, yeah, I could not agree, 545 00:38:32.119 --> 00:38:36.000 could not agree more with that. We just have to be critical of 546 00:38:36.000 --> 00:38:38.719 ourselves because if you've i mean, if you if you just assume the way 547 00:38:38.760 --> 00:38:44.199 difficulties you're you're asking for trouble and it's and again that's just it seems like 548 00:38:44.239 --> 00:38:49.079 that's just a proven reality across military and diplomatic history over the last however many 549 00:38:49.159 --> 00:38:52.480 years that we've been studying, at to twenty five hundred years or however long 550 00:38:52.519 --> 00:38:57.400 we've you know, pick pick your favorite start day. But uh, yeah, 551 00:38:57.559 --> 00:39:00.480 that's I mean, I think they're related to the related question you raise 552 00:39:00.559 --> 00:39:05.079 is probably a bit it's a bigger. It's a bigger one. The logistics, 553 00:39:05.119 --> 00:39:07.639 I mean, And I don't know, actually I don't actually know what 554 00:39:07.760 --> 00:39:10.000 to think about unmanned. I mean, it's when we talk about unmanned and 555 00:39:10.079 --> 00:39:14.400 artificial intelligence and all that kind of stuff, those seem to be like possibly 556 00:39:14.480 --> 00:39:19.239 fledged factors as well. And this is another another area in which I hope 557 00:39:19.239 --> 00:39:22.519 we are being very self critical about this, because I mean, it's I 558 00:39:22.519 --> 00:39:25.159 always look back to the twenties and thirties, the Inner War era, in 559 00:39:25.159 --> 00:39:30.000 which you saw this experimentation going on with military aviation, with aircraft carriers, 560 00:39:30.000 --> 00:39:36.679 with submarines and so forth. And the tendency is, the tendency is at 561 00:39:36.719 --> 00:39:39.960 first to see new technologies and new ways of doing things, as in auxiliary 562 00:39:40.000 --> 00:39:45.199 to what we already do well, which I think was the case with the 563 00:39:45.199 --> 00:39:50.199 aircraft carrier in the nineteen twenties before military aviation caught up in aircraft became a 564 00:39:50.280 --> 00:39:54.119 legitimate striking platforms on their in their own right. But it just feels like 565 00:39:54.119 --> 00:39:58.679 we're in another one of those areas eras here a century later. I don't 566 00:39:58.679 --> 00:40:02.679 I don't actually see what the what the revolutionary contribution on mand makes, uh. 567 00:40:04.320 --> 00:40:06.480 I mean, I mean executly, what what's the What's what's the actual 568 00:40:06.519 --> 00:40:09.719 tactical and operational and strategic value of that? Maybe it reduces costs. I 569 00:40:09.760 --> 00:40:13.480 mean, the Air Force likes to talk about affordable mass. Mass is a 570 00:40:13.480 --> 00:40:15.679 good thing. We have to have mass. But but the executive does that 571 00:40:15.760 --> 00:40:21.159 actually constitute a revolution in how we are doing things? And I think I 572 00:40:21.199 --> 00:40:27.079 wish we should be asking ourselves at just about every day. Yeah, especially 573 00:40:27.079 --> 00:40:35.360 if you're dealing with logistics involving fuel. I think between the the Greens and 574 00:40:35.400 --> 00:40:43.920 the attorneys, the risk of having tens of thousands of barrels of petroleum products 575 00:40:44.000 --> 00:40:46.400 to and around there with no one to be strictly held accountable could be an 576 00:40:46.440 --> 00:40:52.480 issue. Uh. And I think also there's there's the problem of something that 577 00:40:52.519 --> 00:40:58.039 we've been reminded of this weekend. Is again if you keep them at high 578 00:40:58.079 --> 00:41:02.239 seas as one thing, but you know you have off of Yemen they have 579 00:41:02.440 --> 00:41:09.880 seized two merchant ships. Is you know you mentioned the statement by Gilday and 580 00:41:09.920 --> 00:41:14.960 I know if you want to get John Conrad face to turn beat red and 581 00:41:15.000 --> 00:41:17.039 the clause to come out, you know you mentioned that scenario to them where 582 00:41:17.079 --> 00:41:22.440 you tell our merchant ships yet just get underway. We can't escort you. 583 00:41:22.760 --> 00:41:25.159 It's a dangerous planet out there, especially if you're going to be engaged. 584 00:41:25.480 --> 00:41:30.039 And if we do ever find ourselves we kind of touched on this earlier. 585 00:41:30.800 --> 00:41:36.159 If we find ourselves engaged in a major conflict with the People's Republic of China 586 00:41:36.239 --> 00:41:40.880 west of the International Dateline, the smart money will tell you not just it's 587 00:41:40.920 --> 00:41:45.800 not going to be short, it's not going to be localized. It will 588 00:41:45.000 --> 00:41:52.000 one way or another metastasize into a global conflict that will affect all ships on 589 00:41:52.119 --> 00:41:55.360 water. And you know, it's one thing in peacetime. I was I 590 00:41:55.400 --> 00:42:00.559 asked somebody earlier today, what are the insurance rates right now going through the 591 00:42:00.599 --> 00:42:04.280 Red Sea, Because I think the folks at Lloyd's aren't going to like their 592 00:42:04.280 --> 00:42:09.880 ships being taken by the hoothies. But that's that's a legitimate problem to look 593 00:42:09.960 --> 00:42:17.280 at. You maybe you could use unmanned in theory to be phase stage two, 594 00:42:17.320 --> 00:42:22.920 a four stage operation, but again without a person in the loop, 595 00:42:23.280 --> 00:42:29.400 it doesn't solve the larger problem of the fact that you need merchant sheep ship. 596 00:42:29.800 --> 00:42:34.000 You need merchant ships, you need redundancy, and you also need reliable 597 00:42:34.159 --> 00:42:39.599 nationals to man them and operate them, which again is another thing that we 598 00:42:39.639 --> 00:42:45.000 haven't been strong of in our lifetime is having enough American citizens or Allied citizens 599 00:42:45.480 --> 00:42:49.679 that you could really rely on in time of war to really Yeah, you 600 00:42:49.719 --> 00:42:52.719 actually raised two very good points there. I mean, one is the I 601 00:42:52.719 --> 00:42:57.320 mean, that's just the idea that insurance firmsploids. I'm not even sure who 602 00:42:57.320 --> 00:43:00.519 else does that. Bro time insurance Loyds seems to be the domin there's a 603 00:43:00.559 --> 00:43:02.039 player in the player in that field and has been for a long time. 604 00:43:02.079 --> 00:43:05.760 But I mean if they're I mean, if there's a risk to shipping, 605 00:43:05.880 --> 00:43:07.440 if if it's surance rates goes up, I mean, that's that is that 606 00:43:07.480 --> 00:43:12.440 didn't that affects what shippers are willing to do. And we thought we saw 607 00:43:12.480 --> 00:43:15.880 this very clearly back in the back in the in the two two thousand and 608 00:43:15.880 --> 00:43:20.400 eight to ten time frame or thereabouts when when the piracy off Somalia was it 609 00:43:20.440 --> 00:43:22.000 was. It was a major thing that at that point, at that point, 610 00:43:22.000 --> 00:43:25.760 you had shippers thinking about sending sending, sending cargoes all the way around 611 00:43:25.800 --> 00:43:30.719 the southern tip of Africa into the South Atlantic and then and on that way 612 00:43:30.800 --> 00:43:34.880 up rather than rather than risk sending them through the Red Sea or through the 613 00:43:34.920 --> 00:43:37.880 Gulf of mon and into the Red Sea. And so it's so it's the 614 00:43:37.920 --> 00:43:42.920 economic aspect aspect is actually I mean it's really it's really huge. It's and 615 00:43:42.960 --> 00:43:45.320 I think it sort of goes on. I mean, it's just not something 616 00:43:45.320 --> 00:43:49.320 you normally think about. We'd like to think about guns and AMMO and taxics 617 00:43:49.360 --> 00:43:53.280 and whatnot. But though the economic dimension is actually huge. So that's a 618 00:43:54.159 --> 00:43:59.199 so, yeah, it's I think I think I lost my train. I 619 00:43:59.199 --> 00:44:00.760 thought there was a second point in there, but I seem to seem to 620 00:44:00.800 --> 00:44:10.679 have lost what it was finding the mariners that either are oh yeah, Americans 621 00:44:10.880 --> 00:44:15.159 or Allied that you can rely on in time of war. Yeah, I 622 00:44:15.199 --> 00:44:16.400 was actually we haven't mentioned the hand today. I was just gonna I was 623 00:44:16.400 --> 00:44:20.599 just gonna bring up a Mahonian point when you when you look at in the 624 00:44:20.639 --> 00:44:23.679 Hand and is in his book The Influence of Seapower upon History of his his 625 00:44:23.760 --> 00:44:28.480 signature work. I mean, that's the first ninety pages of thereabouts of that 626 00:44:28.519 --> 00:44:31.719 he I mean, he's been talking about the fundamentals of seapower, What does 627 00:44:31.719 --> 00:44:36.360 the nation possess the right stuff to go to see and make itself a seafaring 628 00:44:36.440 --> 00:44:38.760 power of note and what like you mentioned one of those is I mean one 629 00:44:38.760 --> 00:44:43.840 of those is I mean it's basically demographics. Do you have enough people for 630 00:44:43.880 --> 00:44:45.519 the for the size of your territory, but that's but also do you have 631 00:44:45.639 --> 00:44:52.320 enough specialized people to support just to support seafaring industries, include the including merchant 632 00:44:52.320 --> 00:44:54.119 mariners, including and including ship building. I mean, these are these are 633 00:44:54.119 --> 00:44:58.480 things in which we are way behind our Chinese friends. I mean, if 634 00:44:58.599 --> 00:45:01.480 there's been a there's been a light out of a PowerPoint presentation floating around out 635 00:45:01.480 --> 00:45:05.360 of the out of the Office of Naval Intelligence the last couple of months, 636 00:45:05.360 --> 00:45:09.039 that's uh, that contends that China has two hundred times our our our shipbuilding 637 00:45:09.079 --> 00:45:13.440 and industry. I mean that they simply build a ton of ships and we 638 00:45:13.480 --> 00:45:16.880 simply don't. Anymore. Good news is our allies do Japan and South Korea. 639 00:45:16.880 --> 00:45:21.000 But with the fact is that we have by American laws that that inhibit 640 00:45:21.039 --> 00:45:23.719 our ability to go out and actually procure ships from them. And I think 641 00:45:23.719 --> 00:45:28.519 that's something we need to get to consider as we as we progress in this 642 00:45:28.599 --> 00:45:37.159 competition with with with China. Yeah, that's it's an very important issue. 643 00:45:37.960 --> 00:45:42.000 We would last I think last time we had a guest on, we had 644 00:45:42.039 --> 00:45:45.480 Claude Barraby who was talking about his book about Rickover. One of the things 645 00:45:45.519 --> 00:45:50.840 in the in that book which is basically Ricover's work, uh memos and letters 646 00:45:50.840 --> 00:45:54.480 and stuff as he talks about uh he he was sent originally to Okinawa to 647 00:45:54.880 --> 00:46:00.960 uh set up a name, uh maybe repair facility on you because he was 648 00:46:00.000 --> 00:46:05.840 an engineering duty office, right and uh and he took a look at that, 649 00:46:05.880 --> 00:46:07.719 and the think got wiped out by a typhoon. But he took a 650 00:46:07.719 --> 00:46:10.039 look at it and said, I really don't think we need to have this 651 00:46:10.320 --> 00:46:15.639 stuff on shore. We ought to have a floating system to take care of 652 00:46:15.639 --> 00:46:20.719 the ships as they get damage and all that. And even before the show 653 00:46:20.760 --> 00:46:23.239 started we talked a little bit about about the bullets beans and black oil and 654 00:46:23.639 --> 00:46:28.599 Henry eccles. But you know that in those days of the large, very 655 00:46:28.679 --> 00:46:34.840 large drydox that could hold up to battleships and all that, Uh, you 656 00:46:34.880 --> 00:46:37.599 know, should should Is this another concern which you had was let's not get 657 00:46:37.639 --> 00:46:43.480 dependent on shore basis and all these let's let's have mobile platforms for for repair 658 00:46:43.519 --> 00:46:46.760 and all that. Yeah, I would. I would love to see more 659 00:46:46.800 --> 00:46:51.719 tenders and in floating DRYDOCKX. And whatn't I mean? I mean you mentioned 660 00:46:51.880 --> 00:46:54.519 you mentioned Eckyl's Uh. You mean you mentioned Eckyl's uh. And by the 661 00:46:54.519 --> 00:46:58.880 way, if anybody wants to know about logistics of it, he wrote a 662 00:46:58.880 --> 00:47:02.159 book called The Just in the National Defense, which is an absolute must read 663 00:47:02.199 --> 00:47:07.440 if you're interested in this field. But yeah, I mean recently, the 664 00:47:08.239 --> 00:47:10.480 well, it was probably during COVID, that was a couple of years ago 665 00:47:10.480 --> 00:47:15.519 that the Naval Institute reissued a book from the nineteen eighties called the I think 666 00:47:15.559 --> 00:47:20.599 it was called the Pacific War We Considered or remember I can't exactly remember the 667 00:47:20.639 --> 00:47:22.119 title, but it was it was really great. It was it was. 668 00:47:22.239 --> 00:47:27.000 It was a collection of essays from from protagonists who had taken part in the 669 00:47:27.039 --> 00:47:30.119 Pacific War maybe, and they were all really great. I mean, there 670 00:47:30.159 --> 00:47:34.000 was an article Jimmy Jimmy Thatch talking about how he invented the Thatch weave and 671 00:47:34.119 --> 00:47:37.920 sort of fighter tactics to compensate with the Japanese zero and so forth. But 672 00:47:37.039 --> 00:47:40.039 you know what, the vast majority of the vast majority of the articles in 673 00:47:40.079 --> 00:47:45.239 there were about not necessarily logistics, but unsexy stuff. It was about the 674 00:47:45.440 --> 00:47:49.800 beach preparations, if you're as if you're a if you're a c be and 675 00:47:49.840 --> 00:47:52.719 maybe it was it was about all those things that you do to enable the 676 00:47:52.760 --> 00:47:54.840 battle fleet and and the and the and the Marines and the army to go 677 00:47:54.880 --> 00:47:59.719 and do to go and do their thing. And that really that really, 678 00:48:00.079 --> 00:48:04.440 that really stuck with me just because it's I guess I hadn't put any serious 679 00:48:04.440 --> 00:48:07.199 thought into it, but you know, the end glamorous stuff is really the 680 00:48:07.599 --> 00:48:10.199 absolute necessary stuff. In fact, I've been, in fact, as I 681 00:48:10.239 --> 00:48:13.400 was getting ready for the show to that, I've been looking back to some 682 00:48:13.480 --> 00:48:16.280 of my some of my some of my favorite reads on logistics. One of 683 00:48:16.280 --> 00:48:21.559 my favorites that comes from Martin van Craifeld, who is a he's still alive. 684 00:48:21.639 --> 00:48:22.760 He must be very old at this point. He's in this Rael Israeli 685 00:48:23.079 --> 00:48:28.400 military historian. But it's called the Supplying War and what he does, it's 686 00:48:28.400 --> 00:48:30.280 and it's all about armies. So it's so in that sense it so it's 687 00:48:30.400 --> 00:48:34.119 very much a ground warfare thing and not a naval thing. But but he 688 00:48:34.159 --> 00:48:36.920 goes back and he looks he goes way all the way back to the Thirty 689 00:48:36.960 --> 00:48:39.239 Years War and comes up through World War Two and looks at the key determinants 690 00:48:39.320 --> 00:48:45.119 of logistics, and he talks about change the changing character of war from for 691 00:48:45.119 --> 00:48:49.480 a, for example, back in the in the Napoleonic era, armies basically 692 00:48:49.519 --> 00:48:52.639 pray that they basically plundered their way across the countryside rather than relying on extra 693 00:48:53.079 --> 00:48:59.320 on external supply. He moves into the mechanized age, especially especially after especially 694 00:48:59.320 --> 00:49:02.840 after eighteen seventy one and into the World one one era, when when the 695 00:49:04.079 --> 00:49:07.920 warfare becomes mechanized, and at that point ammunition becomes huge, whereas in the 696 00:49:07.960 --> 00:49:10.719 previous in the previous era, and it all then about food stuffs and then 697 00:49:10.920 --> 00:49:15.039 what the army needed to live on as it's as it roamed across the country. 698 00:49:15.320 --> 00:49:17.320 Just just just just a wonderful book. It was it was reissued, 699 00:49:19.320 --> 00:49:22.159 I goesha, Actually, I think this edition is now twenty years old, 700 00:49:22.159 --> 00:49:24.639 but it's a but it's still it still reads very fresh, and I think 701 00:49:24.639 --> 00:49:28.320 that I think there's a lot of goodness in there for people who are interested 702 00:49:28.360 --> 00:49:30.840 in the logistic. I mean, he talks about the quantity, the quantity 703 00:49:30.960 --> 00:49:36.519 of of of different supplies that's demanded, whether it's precision guided to musicians or 704 00:49:36.559 --> 00:49:39.840 all the things that we need today. And also and also just the complexity, 705 00:49:40.599 --> 00:49:45.199 and so he spends a lot of time talking about mobility of forces simply 706 00:49:45.199 --> 00:49:47.800 because of the friction that involved in the in the logistical system. I mean 707 00:49:47.800 --> 00:49:51.719 that that imposes a limit on what a force can do, where it can 708 00:49:51.760 --> 00:49:52.840 go, how far I can go, what it can do when it gets 709 00:49:52.840 --> 00:49:57.599 there. So wonderful, a wonderful book and one that I would commend to 710 00:49:57.639 --> 00:50:06.440 everybody. Gonna pull together a few different thread threads here the mentioned Claude Brave 711 00:50:06.719 --> 00:50:09.840 and I also mentioned earlier about well I didn't mention, I just put it 712 00:50:09.920 --> 00:50:14.800 up on Twitter. Salmore Cogliano tapping on the shoulder. He has a nice 713 00:50:14.840 --> 00:50:17.440 little thread that I think is a good companion to our show. He didn't 714 00:50:17.440 --> 00:50:21.440 know we were doing this topic, but it does flow together pretty well there. 715 00:50:22.159 --> 00:50:27.360 And Mark mentioned earlier about thinking outside the box. You know, what 716 00:50:27.480 --> 00:50:34.400 do we do should we find ourselves inside? Everybody but Admiral Davidson's favorite phrase, 717 00:50:34.400 --> 00:50:37.079 the Davidson window, where we've got to do what a nation has to 718 00:50:37.079 --> 00:50:43.199 do, and you know, we can look back to the First World War 719 00:50:43.880 --> 00:50:50.280 and the OP NOV. Back in January of twenty eighteen, they formed what 720 00:50:50.400 --> 00:50:59.000 was called the Naval Overseas Transportation Service, and one of their jobs was to 721 00:50:59.039 --> 00:51:02.440 look at how we can and seize German ships to make up for the US 722 00:51:02.480 --> 00:51:08.440 merchant marine shortfall. And the People's Republic of China does have a huge fleet, 723 00:51:09.000 --> 00:51:14.760 and our friend Claude has a good fiction writer's mind. I'd like to 724 00:51:14.760 --> 00:51:20.000 get him and a few overcaffeinated and underemployed helo pilots and service warfare officers and 725 00:51:20.039 --> 00:51:23.039 go, okay, guys, put on your ipatch and grab your parrot. 726 00:51:23.320 --> 00:51:28.719 How are you going to go out there and seize for me one hundred Chinese 727 00:51:28.760 --> 00:51:34.239 flag merchant ships. Go. That's an interesting concept that we've actually looked for 728 00:51:34.400 --> 00:51:38.320 before in quasi recent naval history. I don't know if the lawyers up at 729 00:51:38.320 --> 00:51:44.400 the War College have looked at that option at some point. Yeah, I 730 00:51:44.920 --> 00:51:46.800 actually don't know. I actually don't know either. I certainly hope that all 731 00:51:46.840 --> 00:51:51.679 these questions are being asked. Actually hope Claud's actually listening. I actually have 732 00:51:51.719 --> 00:51:53.079 a story to tell him that he's going to make it. Very jealous. 733 00:51:53.159 --> 00:51:58.199 I've always I've always wanted a copy of the nineteen forty three version of Edward 734 00:51:58.280 --> 00:52:02.039 vide Earl's book Makers of Modern Strategy, and I finally got one. It 735 00:52:02.079 --> 00:52:06.280 was very expensive, but you know what, but I look on Amazon and 736 00:52:06.320 --> 00:52:09.239 it said it belonged to Admiral Rickover, and I thought that was the coolest 737 00:52:09.239 --> 00:52:13.119 thing in the world. Apparently is the second wife died last year and somehow 738 00:52:13.199 --> 00:52:15.599 Amazon got got hold of his book collection. So at that point I pulled, 739 00:52:15.760 --> 00:52:19.559 I pulled the pulled the trigger on that stuff, on that on that 740 00:52:19.719 --> 00:52:22.280 very cool book. I don't have many first editions in the house, but 741 00:52:22.280 --> 00:52:27.119 but I thought that was really a great a great edition from one of the 742 00:52:27.159 --> 00:52:30.159 greats. I mean, as far as when you, I think the bigger 743 00:52:30.159 --> 00:52:34.639 point you're actually talking about in in fact you mentioned fiction. I think that's 744 00:52:34.679 --> 00:52:37.159 uh. I mean, fiction is a way of imagining things. Yeah, 745 00:52:37.320 --> 00:52:40.159 I would like to I would love to ask claud Claude about this. Get 746 00:52:40.199 --> 00:52:44.559 him in the room with Peter Singer and with August Cole and so forth. 747 00:52:44.840 --> 00:52:46.079 I mean, start thinking. And Apple's for redis, by the way, 748 00:52:46.079 --> 00:52:49.920 who's become a fiction writer in his own right, in his own right? 749 00:52:50.000 --> 00:52:53.800 They they h August and August and Peter call it fac fiction intelligence, and 750 00:52:53.840 --> 00:52:58.159 it's basically the use of its basically the use of imagination, sort of the 751 00:52:58.239 --> 00:53:01.000 use of fiction to imagine alternative futures and figure out how we might prepare for 752 00:53:01.039 --> 00:53:04.639 them. And that's really that's really what the I mean, that's really what 753 00:53:04.719 --> 00:53:07.679 it's all about. Trying to figure out what the nature of the coming conflict 754 00:53:07.800 --> 00:53:10.519 is, what your adversary is likely to do, how how you might adapt 755 00:53:10.519 --> 00:53:15.639 to that, and and and basically defeat that. And I think it's a 756 00:53:15.760 --> 00:53:19.760 very I think it's a very powerful way of of of thinking about the future. 757 00:53:20.079 --> 00:53:22.639 I find that I find that you know, I didn't. I sort 758 00:53:22.639 --> 00:53:24.039 of wandered into this over the last few years. I read more and more 759 00:53:24.039 --> 00:53:28.800 fiction and less and less sort of a drive you know, political science and 760 00:53:28.800 --> 00:53:30.840 and history and so forth, just because I get more benefit out of it. 761 00:53:30.880 --> 00:53:32.960 And I also get to get a lot of benefit out of it in 762 00:53:32.960 --> 00:53:37.239 the classroom because students really respond to it. So yeah, trying to whatever 763 00:53:37.280 --> 00:53:39.840 you can do to catalyze your imagination, I think is a good thing. 764 00:53:43.639 --> 00:53:47.880 Yeah. I think that that's when we were doing the Navy con stuff, 765 00:53:47.960 --> 00:53:54.199 the the science fiction thing that that Clod actually put together initially, and people 766 00:53:54.199 --> 00:54:00.840 were talking about you know, uh Honor Harrington series and and Star Wars start 767 00:54:00.920 --> 00:54:07.599 Star Trek and all that stuff. Yeah, I mean, I whatever whatever 768 00:54:07.639 --> 00:54:10.440 else. You know, if you've got great ideas because people are thinking about 769 00:54:10.440 --> 00:54:14.880 the future, well I don't understand why we're not. We're not paying more 770 00:54:14.920 --> 00:54:16.679 attention to it. And I know for a while we had groups of people 771 00:54:16.679 --> 00:54:20.800 who were looking at that and trying to go, well, this is totally 772 00:54:21.079 --> 00:54:24.119 unfeasible. Uh, you know this, this might work, but we're never 773 00:54:24.159 --> 00:54:28.840 gonna get funded kind of stuff. But you know, yeah, we've that 774 00:54:29.360 --> 00:54:32.159 is thinking in a different in a different frame of reverence than well, you 775 00:54:32.199 --> 00:54:37.159 know, historically we did this and we'll just keep plodding along that path. 776 00:54:37.320 --> 00:54:40.159 Yeah, I mean, and I love science fiction, by the way, 777 00:54:40.159 --> 00:54:44.079 I've had the last few years i've been I discovered I was kind of a 778 00:54:44.119 --> 00:54:46.000 late comer to Audible, but I discovered it maybe five years ago. And 779 00:54:46.039 --> 00:54:50.800 I started off by listening to classic science fiction that I hadn't listened to or 780 00:54:51.000 --> 00:54:52.360 I hadn't read since I was a kid. I mean, I read, 781 00:54:52.400 --> 00:54:57.159 but when I read, when I listened to the Foundation series. I was 782 00:54:57.199 --> 00:54:59.480 like, man, you know, this is actually this is actually a series 783 00:54:59.480 --> 00:55:01.679 about green strategy. It's about history, it's about that, it's about really 784 00:55:01.719 --> 00:55:04.880 big themes, and it's it. It just sort of struck me. And 785 00:55:05.119 --> 00:55:07.920 I didn't know anything when I was a kid in high school, so it 786 00:55:07.000 --> 00:55:10.360 just struck me in an entirely new way. But I would actually, I 787 00:55:10.400 --> 00:55:14.760 mean, I would actually, I mean it's just sort of it's not necessarily 788 00:55:14.840 --> 00:55:17.639 even science fiction, but I would say just fiction, just fiction in general, 789 00:55:19.000 --> 00:55:22.079 or even poetry. Sometimes you can you can glean a lot of insight. 790 00:55:22.480 --> 00:55:24.360 I'm a I'm a huge Joseph Conrad fan, So you're gonna, you're 791 00:55:24.360 --> 00:55:28.280 gonna, you can I'm gonna that's sort of my go to person to look 792 00:55:28.320 --> 00:55:31.800 at on big themes about you know, about human nature and society and so 793 00:55:31.840 --> 00:55:36.559 forth. It's a it doesn't have anything to do to do with my name, 794 00:55:36.559 --> 00:55:38.039 but Lord Jim is sort of my sort of my favorite novel. But 795 00:55:38.400 --> 00:55:42.239 I get insights out of that at all times. So I would urge people 796 00:55:42.320 --> 00:55:45.440 to just basically decide what they're I mean, decide what your intellectual capital is. 797 00:55:45.639 --> 00:55:47.239 I mean, if it comes out, if it comes out of your 798 00:55:47.280 --> 00:55:52.239 favorite your favorite fiction book if you want to know about Russia, and I 799 00:55:52.239 --> 00:55:54.559 mean read Dostoyevsky or a Pushkin or what I mean. It's just so you 800 00:55:54.639 --> 00:55:59.719 just have to have to tailor tailor your own intellectual capital to help you to 801 00:55:59.760 --> 00:56:02.639 help you see what may come and what we might do about it. Yeah, 802 00:56:02.679 --> 00:56:07.079 I think we've got to be careful. Evidently, Salimor Cogliano's listening to 803 00:56:07.119 --> 00:56:10.480 the show and he just sent me a note. And I'll know about you, 804 00:56:10.559 --> 00:56:15.360 but this is I have not used this term before. If you're looking 805 00:56:15.440 --> 00:56:21.639 at something to wake up your students up there at the War College. He 806 00:56:21.719 --> 00:56:27.480 mentioned to me the right of angry if I'm pronouncing it incorrectly, which I 807 00:56:27.480 --> 00:56:32.360 probably am. A n gary and I'll read the definition for you from the 808 00:56:32.360 --> 00:56:39.119 Oxford Public International Law. You'll appreciate that mark angry is a white belligerate states 809 00:56:39.400 --> 00:56:45.800 enjoy in times of war or international arm conflict, to use or destroy in 810 00:56:45.840 --> 00:56:52.639 case of necessity and subject to indemnification, neutral property present and there are in 811 00:56:52.760 --> 00:56:57.920 occupied territory, such as merchant vessels and civil aircraft, their cars or other 812 00:56:58.039 --> 00:57:02.519 objects. And we use that during the First World War to seize neutral Dutch 813 00:57:02.800 --> 00:57:07.480 merchant ships that happened to be in our port. So my question would be, 814 00:57:07.679 --> 00:57:14.079 I think I know the answer if things click off, do we have 815 00:57:14.119 --> 00:57:17.599 anything for the coastguard to stop neutral shipping from leaving our ports that happened to 816 00:57:17.880 --> 00:57:22.719 find themselves there. Because I don't know about you, I'd rather apologize after 817 00:57:22.840 --> 00:57:28.000 war than to be at a D plus one and be about one hundred and 818 00:57:28.039 --> 00:57:30.280 fifty merchant ships short. That's an interesting idea. I need to think more 819 00:57:30.280 --> 00:57:37.000 about the right of hungry a n G A R Y. That's an interesting 820 00:57:37.039 --> 00:57:38.519 one. I'm not sure I'm familiar with that one either. I mean, 821 00:57:38.519 --> 00:57:43.639 I guess if I wanted to get some traction on that, I would probably 822 00:57:43.639 --> 00:57:46.360 have sort of our standards, sort of our standard Texas and the international relations 823 00:57:46.360 --> 00:57:52.239 and political science fields on the laws of war is Michael Waltzer's book book Justin 824 00:57:52.280 --> 00:57:54.920 and Unjust Wars, which talks about you know, just an unjust resorts the 825 00:57:54.920 --> 00:57:59.599 war and how you actually conduct yourself in war and so forth. But yeah, 826 00:57:59.639 --> 00:58:01.800 that's the that's kind of an inter It's been so long since I've said 827 00:58:01.840 --> 00:58:06.000 the maritime international law that I think I think I might have to take a 828 00:58:06.000 --> 00:58:08.320 pass on that one and see what I mean, it makes sense. I 829 00:58:08.320 --> 00:58:13.599 mean, there's there's what I mean, there's rules of expediency in wartime that 830 00:58:13.679 --> 00:58:16.480 don't exist in peace time. But but yeah, well, and actually, 831 00:58:16.480 --> 00:58:20.400 in the sense our Chinese, our Chinese friends are trying to repeal the laws 832 00:58:20.400 --> 00:58:23.079 of the the law to see and water is close to them. So in 833 00:58:23.119 --> 00:58:27.199 the sense it might almost be paidback if you if you had such a precedent. 834 00:58:29.119 --> 00:58:32.159 Yeah, it's it's fun to contemplate that. James. We've We've kept 835 00:58:32.239 --> 00:58:37.920 you for an hour. It's been most amusing and interesting and scary. Uh 836 00:58:37.239 --> 00:58:40.320 what are you working on now? When can we get you back to talk 837 00:58:40.360 --> 00:58:45.440 about it? Uh? You you can welcome back anytime. But the what 838 00:58:45.519 --> 00:58:49.480 I'm working on right now is, and I'm not, for various reasons, 839 00:58:49.480 --> 00:58:52.599 personal reasons, I'm not making very fast progress on it. But the Naval 840 00:58:52.599 --> 00:58:57.239 Institute earlier this year asked me to ask me to do a what they are 841 00:58:57.239 --> 00:59:00.840 what they're calling it basically a primer on China as a as a as a 842 00:59:00.880 --> 00:59:04.239 contender. Basically what you would like to everybody in in the navy uniform to 843 00:59:04.280 --> 00:59:07.800 do about China as an antagonist and how we might go how we might go 844 00:59:07.880 --> 00:59:13.000 about how we might go about handling that challenge. So it's a it's it's, 845 00:59:13.000 --> 00:59:15.079 it's, it's it's basically just sort of a back to basics. Look 846 00:59:15.119 --> 00:59:20.000 at China, looking at look at looking out of a Mahania of a Mahanian 847 00:59:20.039 --> 00:59:24.000 metrics that does trying to possess all the possess all the the the metrics that 848 00:59:24.079 --> 00:59:27.760 led it to go see go to sea and make itself a great seapower. 849 00:59:27.880 --> 00:59:30.079 And I think the answer, I think the answer is yes, But I 850 00:59:30.119 --> 00:59:32.159 guess we'll see how it comes out, uh, sometime next summer when I 851 00:59:32.199 --> 00:59:37.119 actually finish it. Well, hey, don't don't feel like you need to 852 00:59:37.199 --> 00:59:40.679 jump into it now if you're heading into the holiday season. And it's just 853 00:59:40.679 --> 00:59:45.000 been a pleasure having you on for the last hour. And yeah, I 854 00:59:45.079 --> 00:59:47.920 think I'm coming out a little more scared than I did coming in. That's 855 00:59:47.960 --> 00:59:52.760 that's good for me. Uh, that eats me juiced. And I look 856 00:59:52.800 --> 00:59:54.239 forward to the next chance to talk to you, James, and I hope 857 00:59:54.239 --> 00:59:59.440 you and yours have a great holiday season. And yeah, you as well. 858 00:59:59.559 --> 01:00:05.119 And thanks for everybody for listening in, and thank you everybody for joining 859 01:00:05.159 --> 01:00:07.159 us. For another edition in midrat and unil next time. We hope you 860 01:00:07.159 --> 01:00:24.360 have a great navy day. Cheers. Want to marry me and leave a 861 01:00:24.599 --> 01:00:35.239 friend of Becdilli for you being to blame for love love me, said Faulding 862 01:00:35.559 --> 01:00:46.320 you the tame. It's a long way. It's a long way. It's 863 01:00:46.400 --> 01:01:07.199 a long way. Be Condi well list. It's a long long way. 864 01:01:07.559 --> 01:01:17.159 But Floridians, do you know how close you are to freshness? It's not 865 01:01:17.280 --> 01:01:22.400 a plane or a ship right away. 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