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Coors Brewing Company, Golden Colorado. What is krack Alakin? 11 00:00:46,119 --> 00:00:49,359 Hardwood knocks the listeners. I am Dan for Valley, coming at you without 12 00:00:49,560 --> 00:00:54,200 my fantastic co host Adam Bromo, but I do come bearing the third podcast 13 00:00:54,280 --> 00:00:59,479 of the week, and one of my very good friends, colleagues and just 14 00:00:59,520 --> 00:01:03,200 aspect acculate writer in general, has agreed to join me for this third podcast 15 00:01:03,200 --> 00:01:07,079 of the week. Grant Hughes covers the NBA fantabulously, I might add for 16 00:01:07,120 --> 00:01:11,519 Bleacher Report follow him on Twitter at GT Underscore Hughes. We are going to 17 00:01:11,560 --> 00:01:19,519 analyze and predict every single damn MBA first round playoff series, real original stuff. 18 00:01:19,560 --> 00:01:23,560 I'm sure no other podcast or MBA media outlet is doing that. So 19 00:01:23,599 --> 00:01:26,200 you're welcome in advance. First and foremost, though, Grant, how the 20 00:01:26,239 --> 00:01:32,280 hell are you? I am fantastic, fantabulous like you said, and very 21 00:01:32,280 --> 00:01:38,120 happy to be speaking to you about uh some playoff games. This last level 22 00:01:38,159 --> 00:01:44,879 run up part of the regular season featured some some clandestine and not so clandestine 23 00:01:44,879 --> 00:01:47,400 tanking and all that kind of stuff. We don't have to worry about it 24 00:01:47,400 --> 00:01:49,599 anymore. I'm ready to talk about games that are going to count for realsies. 25 00:01:51,560 --> 00:01:53,439 We are for realsies. That's the new Yes, that's I'm ready for 26 00:01:53,480 --> 00:01:57,599 it too. I don't know what to do with the play in tournament though 27 00:01:57,599 --> 00:02:00,120 there's still one game left, but as we record this, Warriors and Grizzlies. 28 00:02:00,359 --> 00:02:02,959 But like all the numbers, but do they just go into the void? 29 00:02:04,239 --> 00:02:06,319 Is there? We're going to have a separate play in section for them 30 00:02:06,359 --> 00:02:08,639 because they're not postseason, they're not regular season, they're just the play in. 31 00:02:09,599 --> 00:02:14,840 Yeah, why aren't they just playoff numbers? Like how I don't understand. 32 00:02:14,960 --> 00:02:17,639 I think Van Gundy might have said this on the broadcast for Warriors Lakers, 33 00:02:17,840 --> 00:02:21,439 I think, or something to this effect. But it's like they aren't 34 00:02:21,479 --> 00:02:23,759 regular season numbers because it's not really fair to the teams that didn't play the 35 00:02:23,759 --> 00:02:27,759 extra games. They're just their playoff will just put them in the playoff numbers. 36 00:02:27,759 --> 00:02:30,919 Who cares? What's so weird to have to disappear. My counter to 37 00:02:30,000 --> 00:02:34,520 that would be if the NBA has enough teams making the playoffs already, and 38 00:02:34,560 --> 00:02:37,919 now if you're gonna have twenty each year that have postseason stats. In my 39 00:02:37,919 --> 00:02:40,120 mind, I'm just like, what are we doing? That seems too inclusive. 40 00:02:40,680 --> 00:02:44,120 I don't know. This is the only problem with the play in In 41 00:02:44,159 --> 00:02:46,879 my eyes, everything else about it is perfect. I don't think they should 42 00:02:46,919 --> 00:02:50,319 count. They should go into the void, never to be spoken of again, 43 00:02:50,639 --> 00:02:53,520 Like it's not on a player's resume. You had a fight to get 44 00:02:53,560 --> 00:02:54,800 into the playoffs. Still, I would lean more towards putting them in the 45 00:02:54,800 --> 00:03:00,719 regular season though, But that's just makes you know, Can I tell you? 46 00:03:00,719 --> 00:03:02,439 Can I give you my honest answer? Dan, Please, actually, 47 00:03:02,439 --> 00:03:05,680 can you lie to me? I like it. At least lie to me 48 00:03:05,680 --> 00:03:07,400 when we get to the Knicks Hawks series. Please perfect, I'll save it 49 00:03:07,439 --> 00:03:10,719 for that. Oh no, but can you be honest with me? You're 50 00:03:10,759 --> 00:03:13,759 free to be honest. Now, what was to be your honest take? 51 00:03:14,199 --> 00:03:16,199 I was gonna I was gonna be glib and say I don't care about the 52 00:03:16,240 --> 00:03:20,759 stats. But the moment has passed. Now it's not if it was gonna 53 00:03:20,759 --> 00:03:23,439 be funny at all, it's definitely not now, so we can move on. 54 00:03:23,039 --> 00:03:27,000 So you have a burner that says I test Twitter with with one of 55 00:03:27,039 --> 00:03:30,960 those eyes looking at me. I got it exactly. I'm you have given 56 00:03:30,960 --> 00:03:34,199 me carte blanche to lead us through this, so I'm going to take us 57 00:03:34,199 --> 00:03:39,000 through my least interesting playoff series to what I deemed the most interesting. And 58 00:03:39,120 --> 00:03:43,039 I didn't order these beforehand. I did a ton of research on the series, 59 00:03:43,039 --> 00:03:45,439 but I'm ordering them right off the cuff. As to what I'm interested 60 00:03:45,439 --> 00:03:47,719 in, my one that I don't know. I don't care about it because 61 00:03:47,719 --> 00:03:53,599 I'm gonna watch everything, but Sixers and Wizards is kind of kind of decidedly 62 00:03:53,639 --> 00:03:58,479 not interesting to me, unless you still think the rush Joel and Bead Beef 63 00:03:58,560 --> 00:04:02,599 will rehash, but what is the biggest thing you're watching for, biggest impression 64 00:04:02,800 --> 00:04:06,520 of this matchup? Knowing that you've only had well, let's give the Wizards 65 00:04:06,520 --> 00:04:10,280 some credits. They annihilated the Pacers, so you've been thinking about it for 66 00:04:10,319 --> 00:04:13,159 more than two minutes, but in the in eight minutes you've been thinking about 67 00:04:13,199 --> 00:04:17,319 it. Well, I assuming that that would be the matchup when I was 68 00:04:17,360 --> 00:04:20,600 putting notes together for this earlier today, I do only have one note on 69 00:04:20,639 --> 00:04:26,720 it, and it's the words are total destruction and it's filling in four and 70 00:04:27,120 --> 00:04:31,000 like, my main thing is, you know, the it's an oversimplification, 71 00:04:31,240 --> 00:04:35,839 but the Wizards are a two man operation. And both those guys, I 72 00:04:35,879 --> 00:04:41,439 mean, you know, looked better tonight, but I would say both are 73 00:04:41,519 --> 00:04:46,839 somewhat compromised. It's unclear to me what's going on with Westbrook. I don't 74 00:04:46,879 --> 00:04:48,879 know if they said anything during the broadcast tonight when I was sort of checked 75 00:04:48,879 --> 00:04:54,199 out after halftime. But he doesn't look healthy, and he looked just awful 76 00:04:54,720 --> 00:04:58,240 in the first first game. Bale's hamstring is a thing, But then the 77 00:04:58,399 --> 00:05:01,199 real issue to me is that you Ben Simmons to guard one of them or 78 00:05:01,800 --> 00:05:05,519 both, or whoever the Sixers need him to guard. And then you have 79 00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:10,519 tieble to you know, for the twenty ish minutes he's gonna play to just 80 00:05:11,000 --> 00:05:15,680 cause problems. I just don't see a way for one the Wizards to score 81 00:05:15,959 --> 00:05:21,560 consistently because the within bead in the paint, that's that's not an option in 82 00:05:21,560 --> 00:05:25,920 Westbrook's not gonna play bullyball like he did against the Pacers a little bit tonight. 83 00:05:26,879 --> 00:05:28,879 And so I just don't know where the points come from. And then 84 00:05:28,920 --> 00:05:31,800 really on the other end, like Daniel Gafford's a nice story and Robin Lopez 85 00:05:31,879 --> 00:05:34,959 is a you know, a stalwart guy in the middle. But and Bed's 86 00:05:35,000 --> 00:05:38,480 just gonna eat everybody up. You know, it's it's it's a one versus 87 00:05:38,519 --> 00:05:42,759 eight. Like I don't I don't know where the intrigue really is beyond how 88 00:05:43,040 --> 00:05:46,360 are the Wizards two best players going to get anything going. I am with 89 00:05:46,560 --> 00:05:49,879 everything you said there. If I was to play Devil's advocate, where can 90 00:05:49,879 --> 00:05:55,879 Washington maybe frustrate Philly? I do wonder if having Daniel Gafford and Robin Lopez 91 00:05:56,360 --> 00:06:00,360 too, I think you you probably have to mirror Robin Lopez is minutes with 92 00:06:00,439 --> 00:06:02,319 Joel embiad or pretty closely right, that's the I know Daniel Gaffer has been 93 00:06:02,319 --> 00:06:04,879 great, but I think you'd prefer Lopez on Embiid. I feel like those 94 00:06:04,920 --> 00:06:10,040 two can at least provide a fact simile of life's a little bit difficult on 95 00:06:10,040 --> 00:06:12,240 Emid, but just given what he's done on the perimeter, then it's sort 96 00:06:12,279 --> 00:06:15,399 of on the lines of, okay, how much does that not work out? 97 00:06:15,240 --> 00:06:19,480 I even tried to look at it from the view of Philly's half court 98 00:06:19,519 --> 00:06:23,879 offense, because Washington has defended better defensively over the past two months or whatever 99 00:06:23,920 --> 00:06:27,759 it's been, but the Sixers are and when I looked this up, I 100 00:06:27,800 --> 00:06:30,319 was I knew it was good, but I was surprised was this high. 101 00:06:30,360 --> 00:06:32,439 They're half court offense when Simmons and Embide are on the court this season the 102 00:06:32,600 --> 00:06:40,160 ninety second percentile of efficiency, which is wild, and I sort of debunked 103 00:06:40,160 --> 00:06:45,040 what my counter my attempted counterpoint would be, Okay, if you can bother 104 00:06:45,079 --> 00:06:46,480 them down a little bit, maybe that gives you a chance. I think 105 00:06:46,519 --> 00:06:50,519 this the focus that's been paid to ken Philly score in the situations that matter 106 00:06:50,560 --> 00:06:54,680 most. There's been too much attention actually paid to it because they can. 107 00:06:54,839 --> 00:06:58,319 And even if Simmons concerns you, which I think you know, fair and 108 00:06:58,360 --> 00:07:00,160 Bead has been on another level this year with shop making from the perimeter. 109 00:07:00,399 --> 00:07:05,639 To say that they don't have that conventional crunch time weapon, it's at once 110 00:07:05,720 --> 00:07:10,639 true but also false because you don't need him with the way that Joel Embid 111 00:07:10,720 --> 00:07:14,759 is playing right now. Yeah, I think that's that's really interesting big picture 112 00:07:14,800 --> 00:07:17,240 for the Sixers because like if yeah, like you said, if you were 113 00:07:17,279 --> 00:07:20,360 to have isolated what's your number one? I probably did this at some point 114 00:07:20,360 --> 00:07:24,319 this year. I just can't remember if you had to isolate what is what 115 00:07:24,439 --> 00:07:28,519 is a concern that you know might come back to buy each team in a 116 00:07:28,800 --> 00:07:31,120 playoff series and like, yeah, you know, the numbers are what they 117 00:07:31,160 --> 00:07:33,120 are, but I think it would have been still fair to say, like, 118 00:07:33,120 --> 00:07:38,560 how are the Sixers going to score in crunch time against the defense that 119 00:07:38,720 --> 00:07:42,800 has seen them five games in a row or whatever it is and Ben Simmons 120 00:07:42,879 --> 00:07:45,639 is on the floor, Like that's still to me is a legitimate concern even 121 00:07:45,680 --> 00:07:49,560 though the numbers are good. But that's a huge deal if if that is 122 00:07:49,600 --> 00:07:54,600 just no longer an issue because then you know, in terms of poking holes 123 00:07:54,600 --> 00:07:57,319 in the Sixers, you're really just sort of left with well, Joel Embiid, 124 00:07:57,439 --> 00:08:01,759 you know, can't stay healthy because which is just that's not even that's 125 00:08:01,800 --> 00:08:05,120 an issue for an injury is a concern for every best player on every playoff 126 00:08:05,120 --> 00:08:09,720 team. So that's a big deal. I would say that if the Sixers 127 00:08:09,759 --> 00:08:16,759 don't sweep, it's a disappointment, and because the sort of Embiid health issue 128 00:08:16,199 --> 00:08:20,199 is always going to sort of hang over the team. If you have to 129 00:08:20,199 --> 00:08:22,879 mess around an extra game or two against the team you should have just stomped. 130 00:08:22,920 --> 00:08:26,959 I think that's significant. So it does behoof the Sixers to just really, 131 00:08:28,360 --> 00:08:31,800 you know, not mess around in this series. It's significant. But 132 00:08:31,800 --> 00:08:35,320 it's also they're going to play the Hawks for the Knicks in the second rounds. 133 00:08:35,320 --> 00:08:37,799 They don't have to worry about Milwaukee or Booklyn to the conference finals, 134 00:08:37,960 --> 00:08:41,399 so they kind of can screw around without their being imminent payback if they had 135 00:08:41,440 --> 00:08:43,960 to face one of those teams next, I would totally agree for Washington. 136 00:08:45,679 --> 00:08:46,919 I don't want to dumple over of them. You have If Beale and Russell 137 00:08:46,919 --> 00:08:52,000 Westbrook are right, that's a big ass what if at the moment they have 138 00:08:52,720 --> 00:08:56,559 real talent at the top to where do they have two of the three best 139 00:08:56,559 --> 00:08:58,679 players in this series? Depending on how you feel about Ben Simmons in a 140 00:08:58,720 --> 00:09:03,960 vac might probably still say no, Bill might be the second best, or 141 00:09:03,000 --> 00:09:05,000 that can be the single best player in the series. But I do think 142 00:09:05,000 --> 00:09:07,639 both Russ and Bale are capable of being two of the three best players in 143 00:09:07,639 --> 00:09:11,919 this series. That helps them a ton. I do think they can at 144 00:09:11,000 --> 00:09:15,120 least get Philly's defense sort of moving, depending on how much they rely on 145 00:09:15,120 --> 00:09:18,519 Garrison Matthews. I did wonder if it would help should the Sixers rely on 146 00:09:18,600 --> 00:09:20,679 with these thiable more than they did during the regular season. Does that put 147 00:09:20,679 --> 00:09:24,639 any extra pressure on their offense to where it gives Washington just some opportunities to 148 00:09:24,639 --> 00:09:28,320 come out? But I even I filtered out the data, and this isn't 149 00:09:28,360 --> 00:09:31,320 the end all bill, But like the Sixers half court offense with Simmons, 150 00:09:31,320 --> 00:09:35,240 Thiable and Abide on the court eighty nine percentile of efficiency this year. And 151 00:09:35,320 --> 00:09:39,080 so I find myself struggling to get concerns And I wanted to ask you if 152 00:09:39,120 --> 00:09:41,639 you at an X factor for this series. I think mine would be for 153 00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:45,200 the Sixers, I'd probably throw it us to buy as Harris just in case 154 00:09:45,240 --> 00:09:48,039 Simmons can be. I don't know if he's too high profile, but if 155 00:09:48,039 --> 00:09:50,480 he gets a little solved a little bit on offense, you're gonna need to 156 00:09:50,519 --> 00:09:54,720 buyas Harris then to score a ton. And then for the Wizards, I 157 00:09:54,759 --> 00:10:00,600 wanted is it Ruby Hatchma? Like is he gonna have the hardest defense workload 158 00:10:00,679 --> 00:10:03,200 here? I guess you could say it's Robin Lopez or Len or Gafford are 159 00:10:03,200 --> 00:10:07,080 depending on how obviously put the minutes against Joel Embiide, But they don't Who 160 00:10:07,200 --> 00:10:11,320 is their best perimeter defender? Is it? Is it Esak Banga? Is 161 00:10:11,360 --> 00:10:15,360 it Hatchmura? Is it Chandler Hutchinson? Like that's that's where we're at. 162 00:10:16,240 --> 00:10:20,080 Oh, how Willett though? Is it is it him? I don't have 163 00:10:20,120 --> 00:10:22,039 an answer for who their best perimeter defender is? I mean, like it's 164 00:10:22,240 --> 00:10:26,039 yeah, that's that's a problem. I do agree with you on Harris though 165 00:10:26,200 --> 00:10:30,759 we didn't even we didn't even mention him until just now, Like there's a 166 00:10:30,759 --> 00:10:35,039 scenario where he wins the Sixers a game. You know he's he's not going 167 00:10:35,120 --> 00:10:37,960 to be he's not in the conversation as the best three or four, you 168 00:10:39,000 --> 00:10:41,679 know, third or fourth best player in the series. But if he has 169 00:10:41,679 --> 00:10:43,320 like a thirty six point you know whatever, a thirty six point game, 170 00:10:43,840 --> 00:10:48,039 and that wins the Sixers a game, you know, the Wizards. Again, 171 00:10:48,120 --> 00:10:50,080 it's a one versus eight. So of course this is the case. 172 00:10:50,080 --> 00:10:56,200 The Wizards don't have a luxury of their third option or whatever he is relative 173 00:10:56,240 --> 00:11:00,279 to Simmons, but sort of an auxiliary player winning them a game. That's 174 00:11:00,320 --> 00:11:03,960 just you know, that's just not on the table for them. What would 175 00:11:03,960 --> 00:11:07,600 be your prediction for the series. I think it's a sweep. I think 176 00:11:07,639 --> 00:11:11,240 it has to be six ers, and you know, if it's like five 177 00:11:11,320 --> 00:11:16,480 is as long as it could possibly go in my imagination, especially because again 178 00:11:18,200 --> 00:11:22,440 the bell hamstring is is if he's if Beal is compromised that at all or 179 00:11:22,480 --> 00:11:24,919 significantly, I just don't I don't know where the points come from. Maybe 180 00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:28,240 the X factors his hamstring, because if you haven't been waiting in the paint 181 00:11:28,279 --> 00:11:33,120 for Russell Westbrook, you need everything that Bill does infinitely more. Yea, 182 00:11:33,360 --> 00:11:37,399 I'm going six ers and five just because I think Beal, Russell Westbrook get 183 00:11:37,440 --> 00:11:41,399 them at least a game, and there's maybe there's a game where Davis Burton's 184 00:11:41,440 --> 00:11:46,200 goes supernova. So I just don't think it's going to be competitive. I 185 00:11:46,200 --> 00:11:50,159 also don't think this next series is going to be very competitive. My second 186 00:11:50,240 --> 00:11:52,919 choice would be the Celtics versus the Nets, that is, the two v 187 00:11:54,080 --> 00:11:58,360 seven in the East. Thoughts, general impressions, key things to watch for 188 00:11:58,399 --> 00:12:03,240 this one. So I think I don't know if I was talking to you 189 00:12:03,320 --> 00:12:07,960 about this, but I think that Boston. I want Boston and Miami together 190 00:12:07,000 --> 00:12:11,960 a little bit. And it's, you know something, They're not very much 191 00:12:13,000 --> 00:12:16,120 alike, but I just in the sense that I believe in them more as 192 00:12:16,120 --> 00:12:18,240 playoff teams in regular season teams. I believe in their coaching. I believe 193 00:12:18,240 --> 00:12:22,000 in their versatility, their experience, like that whole thing. I think that's 194 00:12:22,000 --> 00:12:28,000 worth something. And Tatum, you know, to a much greater degree than 195 00:12:28,399 --> 00:12:31,360 even someone say like Beal, I think he's he has the ability to be 196 00:12:31,440 --> 00:12:35,519 the best player on the floor in a game that also includes Durant and Harden 197 00:12:35,600 --> 00:12:39,879 and Irving. He's not the best player in the series, but he can 198 00:12:39,919 --> 00:12:43,399 have that game or two where they just can't do anything with him, and 199 00:12:43,440 --> 00:12:46,919 it's not like the Nets have great defensive wing options I get. I don't 200 00:12:46,919 --> 00:12:50,919 know whether it'll do with him, Bruce Brown maybe or someone I'm forgetting, 201 00:12:50,679 --> 00:12:56,039 but I think I think the Nets will win that series. The hesitation I 202 00:12:56,080 --> 00:12:58,200 have, in addition to the Tatum and liking Boston a little bit more than 203 00:12:58,279 --> 00:13:03,200 maybe I should, is that I still, and this may be an anchoring 204 00:13:03,279 --> 00:13:07,240 thing because I sort of have been hesitant to buy the Nets from the jump. 205 00:13:07,879 --> 00:13:11,600 I thought, like you know, Steve Nash was in for just a 206 00:13:11,639 --> 00:13:15,480 miserable ride as coach of this team. I felt bad for him. I've 207 00:13:15,519 --> 00:13:18,320 been mostly wrong the whole way. You know, James Harden can't play a 208 00:13:18,360 --> 00:13:20,639 different way, Yes he can. I was wrong about that. Durant is 209 00:13:20,679 --> 00:13:26,279 going to be diminished. No he's not. I think my hesitancy to say 210 00:13:26,320 --> 00:13:31,240 this is just a similar level of walkover as Philly Washington is that I still 211 00:13:31,240 --> 00:13:35,120 just don't know. I don't know. I think that the Nets have the 212 00:13:35,240 --> 00:13:37,960 potential to be absolutely dominant. There are a lot of statistical indicators that when 213 00:13:37,960 --> 00:13:41,600 they're healthy and they have all their guys, they just are. But I 214 00:13:41,840 --> 00:13:46,679 have I haven't seen it. I still just envision ways for this to go 215 00:13:46,759 --> 00:13:50,679 wrong, whether that's Harden's hamstring acting acting up, whether that's Durant not making 216 00:13:50,720 --> 00:13:54,840 it through the series, whether that's Irving going cold for whatever reason. There's 217 00:13:54,879 --> 00:14:00,639 just there's just enough uncertainty about a team that's obviously super talent it for me 218 00:14:00,720 --> 00:14:03,480 to think, and I mean, I'll I guess I can give you my 219 00:14:03,519 --> 00:14:05,519 pick now. I think the Nets win it, but I think it could 220 00:14:05,519 --> 00:14:09,759 go six. So I have a lot of faith in Boston and I'm still 221 00:14:09,799 --> 00:14:15,440 just a little uncertain about the Nets. I guess this would be the team 222 00:14:15,480 --> 00:14:20,679 that Boston matches up with well defensively better than people might expect without Jaylen Brown. 223 00:14:20,840 --> 00:14:24,039 Just to have Marcus Smart and then Jason Tatum gives you two guys that 224 00:14:24,080 --> 00:14:30,159 can go after two of the three stars in Brooklyn. I don't know what 225 00:14:30,320 --> 00:14:35,919 is the answer for the third one is just who is like, you know, 226 00:14:35,000 --> 00:14:39,120 Let's assume Tatum gets a ton of time on Durant. Let's make that 227 00:14:39,159 --> 00:14:43,080 the assumption Marcus Smart probably toggles between James Harden and Kyrie. Do you do 228 00:14:43,120 --> 00:14:46,799 you attach him to James Harden? And then but who's the third most important 229 00:14:46,799 --> 00:14:50,519 defense? I just that's the problem. The math never works out when it 230 00:14:50,519 --> 00:14:56,759 comes to defending Brooklyn. And let's not forget Joe Harris exists. He has 231 00:14:56,799 --> 00:15:01,200 been just the quintessential superstar sory For the Nets, they haven't played a ton 232 00:15:01,240 --> 00:15:07,000 of time together those four under three hundred possessions. Their offensive rating in that 233 00:15:07,039 --> 00:15:09,559 span, though, is one twenty nine point two. The thing that also 234 00:15:09,639 --> 00:15:13,519 worries me for Boston specifically is there's the element of how much does it matter 235 00:15:13,639 --> 00:15:20,720 how well you match up defensively with Brooklyn by going among all high volume ISO 236 00:15:20,759 --> 00:15:24,879 guys or medium volume isso guys? The Nets have three of the top ten 237 00:15:26,120 --> 00:15:30,320 buy efficiency with Harden Irving and Kevin Durant. That's just so much firepower. 238 00:15:30,759 --> 00:15:31,759 I don't know that I have the Nets coming out of the East right now. 239 00:15:31,759 --> 00:15:35,080 My inclination would be no. My official pick because of right now for 240 00:15:35,120 --> 00:15:37,799 the entire East would be no. This feels like a situation where to me 241 00:15:37,840 --> 00:15:41,480 that they will steam roll Boston. I'd be a lot more intrigued by it 242 00:15:41,519 --> 00:15:46,840 if they had Jalen Brown. They do have questions though defensively, just you 243 00:15:46,879 --> 00:15:48,960 know, the small minutes they've played with their Big four or their their four 244 00:15:50,000 --> 00:15:54,919 top guys, they've actually been fine defensively. Does that hold up? Who 245 00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:56,360 is your five when it matters most? I think it'll be Jeff Green, 246 00:15:56,440 --> 00:16:03,279 but you mentioned Bruce Brown. Nick Claxton is my X factor because maybe if 247 00:16:03,279 --> 00:16:04,919 that's the wrong pick for this series, because which Boston big is going to 248 00:16:04,960 --> 00:16:07,200 scare you? Maybe if they go with Grant Williams at the five and they 249 00:16:07,200 --> 00:16:11,399 downsize, that makes you a little bit worried. But they switch so much 250 00:16:11,480 --> 00:16:15,279 the nets person energy switched the second most among all defenses this year, and 251 00:16:15,360 --> 00:16:18,720 I believe he's super important to that, more so than even a Jeff Green 252 00:16:18,799 --> 00:16:22,840 or a Bruce Brown. Maybe that's for something in later series though, to 253 00:16:22,919 --> 00:16:26,919 really be concerned about. My pick would be Brooklyn in four here, Oh 254 00:16:26,399 --> 00:16:30,440 I think, I mean, are they Maybe they'll load manage their guys throughout 255 00:16:30,440 --> 00:16:33,000 the series. I wouldn't put it past this team. There's I could easily 256 00:16:33,039 --> 00:16:36,600 just go five. But when I'm this much in on Brooklyn and sort of 257 00:16:36,639 --> 00:16:40,360 as low as I am on Boston, I think I need I'm just gonna 258 00:16:40,440 --> 00:16:44,480 lean into the sweep, and you know Boston is going to have weaker points 259 00:16:44,480 --> 00:16:47,240 on defense for Brooklyn to attack as well. Just how many times are they 260 00:16:47,240 --> 00:16:49,799 gonna go after Evan Fournier a game and you can't take He's my X factor 261 00:16:49,840 --> 00:16:55,440 for Boston. You need that other scorer who can both playoff others and generate 262 00:16:55,480 --> 00:16:57,080 his own shot. Now that Jayon Brown isn't there, there's Kembo, there's 263 00:16:57,120 --> 00:17:00,960 Jayson Tatum. But the Cells kind of had the issue with residual scoring to 264 00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:04,119 begin with. It has to be having four day now, so how do 265 00:17:04,119 --> 00:17:07,799 you can you take him off the floor if he's getting killed on defense? 266 00:17:08,119 --> 00:17:14,799 This feels like the sweep opportunity in the first round to me, Yeah, 267 00:17:14,839 --> 00:17:19,359 I think I think to your point that percent agree on Claxton, by the 268 00:17:19,400 --> 00:17:22,880 way, like he's going to matter. I don't know if it'll be this 269 00:17:22,960 --> 00:17:27,359 series, but but I think you know the best the best case scenario for 270 00:17:27,519 --> 00:17:30,960 Boston is to play a team that plays a lot of drop coverage with a 271 00:17:30,960 --> 00:17:34,359 conventional big because then maybe in addition to Tatum, you get some good Kemba 272 00:17:34,440 --> 00:17:38,599 Walker games where he hits five or six threes off the dribble. That's not 273 00:17:38,720 --> 00:17:44,079 I don't think unless for some reason the Nets abandoned all of their switching, 274 00:17:44,079 --> 00:17:47,519 I think they'll probably switch more and play DeAndre Jordan a lot and he drops. 275 00:17:48,279 --> 00:17:52,799 It's gonna be really hard for Walker to get going, especially like he's 276 00:17:52,839 --> 00:17:56,680 just I don't know, he's looked okay in spurts, but he's just he's 277 00:17:56,759 --> 00:18:00,200 not someone that's gonna break down a mismatch. And if the nets if the 278 00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:04,839 mismatch quote unquote is Bruce Brown as you're sort of pseudo center switching out, 279 00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:07,599 then that's just a noun. That's that's a tough one for him. Yeah, 280 00:18:07,759 --> 00:18:11,000 I don't know. I'm going on faith, but but I again, 281 00:18:11,000 --> 00:18:12,680 I wouldn't. It wouldn't shock me if then let's have the talent to just 282 00:18:14,039 --> 00:18:18,039 if they blew any of these teams out and just walked over him and four, 283 00:18:18,400 --> 00:18:19,200 you would kind of look back and say, well, yeah they have 284 00:18:19,680 --> 00:18:22,759 Durant, Harden and Irving. Of course they did. But I'm holding out 285 00:18:22,799 --> 00:18:27,680 some faith that Brad Stevens will will do something magical and Tatum will get another 286 00:18:27,799 --> 00:18:30,839 you know, throw a fifty five pointer in there for a game or two. 287 00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:36,480 There's your impression change if Robert, if Robin, if Robert Williams isn't 288 00:18:36,480 --> 00:18:40,680 able to play, not really, because I don't think this is a series 289 00:18:40,720 --> 00:18:44,799 for him. You know. You know what I do wish is if that 290 00:18:45,000 --> 00:18:47,480 is the Daniel Tyson was still on the Celtics. He makes a lot more 291 00:18:47,480 --> 00:18:51,319 sense in a series like this than than kind of your conventional shop. He 292 00:18:51,359 --> 00:18:56,640 makes more sense on the Celtics than has luxury tax evading fodder. A little 293 00:18:56,640 --> 00:19:02,160 bit, a little bit that surprises me. So you you had nets and 294 00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:06,480 six, I have Nets and four. I don't think this is the series 295 00:19:06,519 --> 00:19:08,640 that you're going to be expecting me to go to next. I just can't 296 00:19:08,759 --> 00:19:11,039 drum up the level of interest in it. I think other people are going 297 00:19:11,079 --> 00:19:14,799 to have. And I'm also assuming that we get Warriors Jazz, which will 298 00:19:14,799 --> 00:19:18,119 intrigue me more than this one. I have the four v five matchup in 299 00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:22,400 the West of Clippers Mavericks. I know people want to sort of build it 300 00:19:22,480 --> 00:19:29,880 up because of what it was last year, especially before the Kristaps Porzingis injury. 301 00:19:29,200 --> 00:19:32,599 I think the Clippers are just I want to hear your thoughts first, 302 00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:34,720 but I just think they're I can't get a hold on them and I don't 303 00:19:34,759 --> 00:19:37,000 trust them. And it's not just because of what we saw last season. 304 00:19:37,039 --> 00:19:41,240 It's just even this season whenever you're ready to believe in them, something happens 305 00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:44,960 in crunch time where the defense gets weird or the shot making is bizarre. 306 00:19:45,559 --> 00:19:48,920 I think they're just so much better than the Mavericks, and I've been you 307 00:19:48,920 --> 00:19:51,000 know, they are fifth in the West, So give the Mavericks credit. 308 00:19:51,359 --> 00:19:55,640 I've just been so low on the Mavericks relative to the consensus because they are 309 00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:57,839 Luca don Chich and I don't you know, Jalen Brunson, Tim Hardaway, 310 00:19:57,920 --> 00:20:03,079 junior Fringe six Man of the Year candidate's great grand wonderful. They just don't 311 00:20:03,079 --> 00:20:07,400 have the number two guy. They don't have that secondary shock creator. Yeah, 312 00:20:07,519 --> 00:20:11,440 strong agree. I think a couple of things like the one man operation 313 00:20:11,559 --> 00:20:14,240 is a really tough thing to pull off in the playoffs, and and very 314 00:20:14,279 --> 00:20:17,519 few teams are you know, you might site say the Blazers as well. 315 00:20:17,519 --> 00:20:19,640 If Damian Lillard doesn't get off, that's a problem, but they have McCollum. 316 00:20:19,680 --> 00:20:23,559 They have other ways to go. Unless you are a big Porzingis believer, 317 00:20:25,160 --> 00:20:29,200 and I don't know why you would be really in a significant way after 318 00:20:29,240 --> 00:20:33,119 the season. It's just Danchich and the Clippers have the wing side, the 319 00:20:33,160 --> 00:20:36,640 big wings to at least just be in his way or make him beat you 320 00:20:36,720 --> 00:20:40,640 with a bunch of stepbacks. To think, I mean, it's the Clippers 321 00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:44,039 are thirty two and eleven in games that George and Leonard both played, plus 322 00:20:44,039 --> 00:20:47,440 seventeen point five in the minutes with them on the floor together. I mean, 323 00:20:48,160 --> 00:20:52,160 that will be a significant portion of all of these games that they will 324 00:20:52,200 --> 00:20:53,759 have both of them out there. And it's not like they, you know, 325 00:20:53,960 --> 00:20:57,319 the rotation falls off a cliff on guys six through nine on that team. 326 00:20:57,359 --> 00:21:00,440 There's gonna be bodies that they can, you know, really credibly put 327 00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:06,720 out there and not give give those that massive narrating advantage back. I think 328 00:21:06,839 --> 00:21:08,880 I think just Dallas is a little worse than it was last year, and 329 00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:14,319 I think I don't think it's crazy to say the Clippers are at least as 330 00:21:14,319 --> 00:21:17,839 good as they were last year. And that's assuming they've they're going to tighten 331 00:21:17,920 --> 00:21:22,279 up in a good way and sort of not allow whatever all that was last 332 00:21:22,359 --> 00:21:26,480 year that that did them in. I do think if you're looking for ways 333 00:21:26,519 --> 00:21:29,160 to poke holes and the Clippers, you just you gotta go with the well, 334 00:21:29,240 --> 00:21:32,920 they it's all old cliche stuff. Well, they really depend on making 335 00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:37,759 jumpers. But I think that's that's not even a valid criticism really anymore, 336 00:21:37,799 --> 00:21:40,680 because they have the guys that just make jumpers, and it's not like, 337 00:21:41,359 --> 00:21:42,759 yeah, I don't know, it's it's really hard for me to come up 338 00:21:42,759 --> 00:21:47,559 with semi defensible reasons to not think this is a pretty short series for the 339 00:21:47,559 --> 00:21:52,880 Clippers. Yeah, that would be for the Mavericks looking through at the Clippers 340 00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:56,240 on what could happen that would help Dallas. There's high variants in their shot 341 00:21:56,279 --> 00:21:59,839 selection, for sure, but they've since that since Abaca was injured, they 342 00:22:00,079 --> 00:22:03,359 getting to the rim a ton more, probably because they've been starting Zuobots and 343 00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:06,400 they have someone in Kawhi Leonard who doesn't need to get to the rim to 344 00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:10,440 draw fouls, which is absolutely huge for them. There is that higher variance 345 00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:15,359 there though, and maybe that's how that's the path for Dallas to get lucky, 346 00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:18,400 or that's maybe they win one of two games to open up and that 347 00:22:18,759 --> 00:22:22,640 starts something rolling. I also wonder Zubots is fantastic. I don't think this 348 00:22:22,680 --> 00:22:26,119 will happen, but does he get not played off the floor but doesn't become 349 00:22:26,119 --> 00:22:30,519 problematic having him on the court instead of Surgebak. If Christops Porzingis is the 350 00:22:30,559 --> 00:22:33,799 other big just because of where Porzingis is going to camp out, he's not 351 00:22:33,799 --> 00:22:36,359 going to try, or at least they shouldn't. Porzingis has been better on 352 00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:38,119 post ups this year, but he shouldn't be trying to post up Zobots. 353 00:22:38,119 --> 00:22:41,039 And I know Zubots is quick, but there's still the element of it's not 354 00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:45,240 you're not worried about Christops wors think is necessarily taking him off the dribble. 355 00:22:45,559 --> 00:22:48,519 He's just gonna stand far enough behind the three point line where it take zu 356 00:22:48,599 --> 00:22:52,400 Bots a lot of outside, a lot of the interior actions. That would 357 00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:56,359 be my concern. I can't muster up anything else though for this, and 358 00:22:57,480 --> 00:23:02,559 I think my pick here would be just it would be Clippers in five. 359 00:23:02,839 --> 00:23:07,440 I'm trying to talk myself into six, but I'm just like I can't get 360 00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:11,799 there. My X factors really quickly would be I think it's Jalen Brunson for 361 00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:15,319 Dallas. I feel like there has to be more Dons brunts in minutes because 362 00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:18,200 the Clippers will be able to throw the type of bo Marcus Morris did a 363 00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:22,160 pretty good job on Luka dont in the playoffs last year. If they can 364 00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:26,480 get the ball out of his hands, they need another creator. It's Tim 365 00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:29,880 Hardaway Junior or Jalen Brunton, I guess are your best options. And then 366 00:23:29,920 --> 00:23:33,160 for the Clippers, it's kind of tough to pin down an X factor for 367 00:23:33,200 --> 00:23:36,839 them. I might just say, because of how reliant they are on three 368 00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:40,599 point volume, I'll default to Marcus Morris. He'll get a ton of reps 369 00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:44,079 against Luka Dontas defensively, and then you're gonna rely a bunch on on his 370 00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:45,680 own three point volume. But I think you could single out any one of 371 00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:48,599 their non stars. This is zoobots and his ability to match up with Kris 372 00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:55,079 stops Porzingis Is it just Sergebaka in general to stretch the floor not necessarily hurt 373 00:23:55,119 --> 00:23:59,079 your defense in certain situations? You could go, is it Terrence Man because 374 00:23:59,079 --> 00:24:02,279 he's actually gonna play? Is that Patrick Beverley Kenn he stay healthy. I 375 00:24:02,279 --> 00:24:04,160 feel like you could go any one of eighty different ways with the Clippers X 376 00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:10,759 factors. Yeah, I think big picture Serge Ibaka might be. It's hard 377 00:24:10,799 --> 00:24:15,119 to there are five is also like Clippers, and five is also my pick 378 00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:18,039 for this series. But I think Abaca is a good guy to kind of 379 00:24:18,119 --> 00:24:22,799 keep an eye on to see sort of how he's looking, because you know, 380 00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:26,519 I think down the line, the Clippers are definitely gonna look for Marcus 381 00:24:26,519 --> 00:24:30,759 Morris is going to play significant minutes at center for them. I think, 382 00:24:32,400 --> 00:24:37,559 you know, just in in certain series, but you don't want to try 383 00:24:37,599 --> 00:24:41,359 to really live that way. And so because Zubots is just zu Bots is 384 00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:44,759 good at what he does, but he's limited, And the idea of Abaca 385 00:24:45,200 --> 00:24:48,079 made incredibly perfect sense, you know, from the moment they signed him as 386 00:24:48,079 --> 00:24:52,559 the guy who could sort of be the in between, the in between the 387 00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:56,240 versions of those two guys who can shoot it a little bit and you don't 388 00:24:56,279 --> 00:24:59,359 lose too much rim to rim protection as long as he's kind of right there. 389 00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:02,880 He's not supermobile anymore. But I think he's someone I'm going to keep 390 00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:06,319 an eye on to kind of see what what version of Abaca we've got, 391 00:25:06,319 --> 00:25:07,799 because he wasn't he wasn't great this year, and he missed, you know, 392 00:25:07,839 --> 00:25:11,279 a fair amount of time. So I don't know if he's the X 393 00:25:11,319 --> 00:25:14,480 factor in this series. I don't know if there is such a thing as 394 00:25:14,519 --> 00:25:17,839 an X factor for the Clippers in this series. I guess I would just 395 00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:19,880 want to shout out Maxi Kleiba for a Dallas because I like that guy and 396 00:25:19,960 --> 00:25:23,839 I hope he makes a difference. But it's hard to see how much why 397 00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:26,680 he would matter in this unless they put him on Kawhi again and he's the 398 00:25:26,759 --> 00:25:30,920 Kawhi stopper. Well, the other thing is too if they If the Clippers 399 00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:33,799 do de sign a downside downsize in this series with Morse at the five minutes, 400 00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:37,680 you probably feel better about. Okay, Kleiba as the five and take 401 00:25:37,759 --> 00:25:41,720 Porzingis off. That's something you at least consider, which would increase the importance 402 00:25:41,759 --> 00:25:44,519 of Kleiba. And he moves really well defensively, as you sort of already 403 00:25:44,519 --> 00:25:45,640 alluded to. Yeah, look you go. Nicholas Betune, by the way, 404 00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:48,039 for the Clippers as well. I'm not sure if this. I don't 405 00:25:48,079 --> 00:25:52,119 think this will shock you, but it is shocking given the circumstances under which 406 00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:56,640 he left Charlotte, how bad he was, and then went to La he 407 00:25:56,839 --> 00:26:00,839 led the Clippers and minutes played this season. That that does absolutely shock me. 408 00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:07,799 I can't that's incredible. I had no idea he beat out Paul George 409 00:26:07,839 --> 00:26:11,519 by and he did this in granted thirteen more appearances, but being available this 410 00:26:11,559 --> 00:26:15,880 season in sixty seven to seventy two games for him is also to forget about 411 00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:19,759 the truncated schedule for him. It's right he beat out Paul George by fourteen 412 00:26:19,799 --> 00:26:26,160 total minutes on the year. Incredible, good for him. I want this 413 00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:29,759 series. We both had Clippers in five on that one. Correct. Yeah. 414 00:26:29,799 --> 00:26:32,799 I want this series to be higher, I really do. But it's 415 00:26:32,799 --> 00:26:34,599 not. We don't know that it's going to be to exist yet. And 416 00:26:34,640 --> 00:26:37,480 I also think we need to show the Jazz the appropriate amount of respect by 417 00:26:37,559 --> 00:26:41,880 ranking it lower. I don't want to apply that. I think the Warriors 418 00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:45,559 or the Grizzlies could beat Utah, I just one percent. Don't think it's 419 00:26:45,559 --> 00:26:48,319 going to happen. I think it's going to be Golden State in Utah. 420 00:26:48,359 --> 00:26:51,400 But let's spend a few seconds on Memphis in Utah. Is there a path 421 00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:57,880 to that just becoming a series at all? I think a lot. A 422 00:26:57,960 --> 00:27:03,680 lot will depend on. Like if you had to narrow it down to one 423 00:27:03,799 --> 00:27:07,279 stat I would almost want it to be how many threes per game is Jaren 424 00:27:07,359 --> 00:27:11,160 Jackson Junior gonna make? And if you told me it was like four or 425 00:27:11,240 --> 00:27:15,079 four and a half. Then I think maybe the Grizzlies are interesting or sort 426 00:27:15,079 --> 00:27:18,319 of in business a little bit. I would love it if he could play 427 00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:22,440 center and just bring Gobert out of there, but that just hasn't proven to 428 00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:26,759 be a tenable strategy so far. So Valanciunist will play a lot, and 429 00:27:26,799 --> 00:27:30,559 I just Valentinist just he's really good at what he does, but he does 430 00:27:30,559 --> 00:27:34,880 not give you any advantages against the team that has Rudy Gobert. So yeah, 431 00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:38,160 I don't I don't see the path. I mean, especially if you 432 00:27:38,160 --> 00:27:42,240 know the Grizzlies have a shooting game like they had on at the end of 433 00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:47,039 the regular season against the Warriors, where John Moran is getting completely left alone 434 00:27:47,400 --> 00:27:49,319 and his only avenue is to drive into the middle, which is where Rudy 435 00:27:49,359 --> 00:27:52,480 Gobert is going to be. And I just don't know where. I don't 436 00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:56,039 know how the Grizzlies score. I love I love the Grizzlies potential to defend 437 00:27:56,079 --> 00:28:02,039 the Jazz pretty well. I love all their wins. Defenders. I think 438 00:28:02,480 --> 00:28:04,759 they have size. I mean, Morant might get picked on a little bit, 439 00:28:04,799 --> 00:28:08,079 but I just I don't know where I don't know where the Grizzlies find 440 00:28:08,119 --> 00:28:11,720 the way to compete offensively with Utah, which you know their offense is pretty 441 00:28:11,759 --> 00:28:15,079 darn good too, So yeah, I don't know. Even when you look 442 00:28:15,079 --> 00:28:18,559 at how many good individual defenders they have, what is the tradeoff Winslow's role 443 00:28:18,599 --> 00:28:22,079 would be. He might just be the X factor because can he gives you 444 00:28:22,400 --> 00:28:25,720 a bunch of advantages defensively? Can you keep him on the floor offensively? 445 00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:29,119 The fact that Jazz have Royce O'Neil, where this is the matchup if you're 446 00:28:29,119 --> 00:28:32,680 looking at other teams later in the playoffs, how did the Jazz matchup defensively 447 00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:34,759 with Wings, especially if it's a team that relies on jump shots, Because 448 00:28:34,759 --> 00:28:37,880 then I do think that diminishes the importance at least a little bit of what 449 00:28:37,960 --> 00:28:41,880 Rudy Gobert does. But you're, let's say, most dangerous offensive player is 450 00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:48,240 either John morantor or maybe Dylan Brooks, or it's Jonas Valanciunis, three players 451 00:28:48,279 --> 00:28:53,400 that Utah is built perfectly to defend. Between Royce O'Neil and Rudy Gobert. 452 00:28:53,400 --> 00:28:57,000 Even look, Kyle Anderson has been great this year. You have Joe Ingles 453 00:28:57,039 --> 00:29:00,640 for him, it's not. It's like just not a huge deal. Also, 454 00:29:00,680 --> 00:29:04,079 the Grizzlies their nineteenth and frequency of the of the attempts that come out 455 00:29:04,079 --> 00:29:07,839 the rim, that's gonna just drop because Golbert exists and they're first in short 456 00:29:07,839 --> 00:29:15,039 mid range attempts, the frequency, the share of which their attempts come from 457 00:29:15,440 --> 00:29:18,880 short float range or can't speak tonight, apparently, Gobert, I gotta RaSE 458 00:29:18,920 --> 00:29:21,880 those two like, that's just that's a huge issue. And the fact that 459 00:29:21,880 --> 00:29:26,039 they don't shoot enough threes or make enough of them. Maybe the volume gets 460 00:29:26,079 --> 00:29:29,119 up. But like in the win over the Spurs, Jaren Jackson Junior, 461 00:29:29,359 --> 00:29:32,880 two or four from three is great. Two makes and four attempts isn't gonna 462 00:29:32,880 --> 00:29:36,480 cut it for Memphis offensively against the Jazz. And so if it is Jazz 463 00:29:36,519 --> 00:29:38,000 Grizzlies, I want to go on the record of saying that would be the 464 00:29:38,039 --> 00:29:41,160 other series in the first round i'd predict as a sweep. Yeah, I 465 00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:47,319 would agree, I would agree with that. I just I mean, again, 466 00:29:47,400 --> 00:29:51,519 it's Jaren Jackson would have to make a bunch of threes and just completely 467 00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:55,759 and play center and just do do things that have not happened. So I 468 00:29:55,759 --> 00:29:57,440 mean he's made threes. He's a great shooter. They got to figure out 469 00:29:57,480 --> 00:30:02,559 how to leverage him more. But there's no evidence to suggest that that will 470 00:30:02,559 --> 00:30:07,599 happen against Utah Golden State, though impressions of the how Utah and Golden State 471 00:30:08,039 --> 00:30:11,559 might would will match up however you want to frame it. At this moment, 472 00:30:11,640 --> 00:30:15,519 this podcast is gonna be a terrible Listen. Should Memphis beat Golden State? 473 00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:22,359 Well, so, I should probably have said this earlier, but I've 474 00:30:22,400 --> 00:30:26,880 put I'm putting zero stock in anything that happened in the regular season with respect 475 00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:29,640 of these matchups. I shouldn't say zero, but almost no stock. So 476 00:30:29,680 --> 00:30:33,680 I don't care about the fact that the Warriors beat the Jazz and Phoenix in 477 00:30:33,720 --> 00:30:36,200 the span of a week, you know, towards the end of the regular 478 00:30:36,200 --> 00:30:41,519 season. I think in theory, obviously, I think the Warriors give the 479 00:30:41,640 --> 00:30:45,559 Jazz, will give the Jazz a much bigger problem than Memphis will. I 480 00:30:45,640 --> 00:30:49,240 can't pick the Warriors to win that series for reasons. I think that we're 481 00:30:49,240 --> 00:30:53,559 evident against the Lakers, where Curry has to be great, and sometimes even 482 00:30:53,559 --> 00:30:59,039 when he's great, it's not enough. But I do think, you know, 483 00:30:59,160 --> 00:31:03,000 look, if if if the Warriors are going to play high pick and 484 00:31:03,079 --> 00:31:04,880 roll, and Draymond Green is gonna play a lot of center, and Rudy 485 00:31:04,920 --> 00:31:07,680 Gobert has to come out, and then he doesn't want to come out. 486 00:31:07,920 --> 00:31:14,519 There's a way for the Warriors to sort of tip things downhill offensively. It 487 00:31:14,559 --> 00:31:18,079 may depend on Curry finding guys to make shots. It may defend depend on 488 00:31:18,119 --> 00:31:22,799 Green being able to finish in four on threes, things that you're not super 489 00:31:22,799 --> 00:31:26,240 comfortable with. But there are sort of ways. I can see the Warriors 490 00:31:26,440 --> 00:31:32,000 getting some decent looks offensively, and the Warriors defense is really good. I 491 00:31:32,039 --> 00:31:36,480 think that they can give Utah. They'll make Utah work, especially if Donovan 492 00:31:36,519 --> 00:31:41,799 Mitchell is is you know whatever percentage below one hundred percent, he's going to 493 00:31:41,839 --> 00:31:45,799 be coming off that ankle. I think there's a scenario where this series goes 494 00:31:45,839 --> 00:31:48,359 six. That's gonna be my pick. I'm gonna pick the Jazz in six. 495 00:31:49,640 --> 00:31:52,519 I just I just think the Warriors can make it interesting. But I'm 496 00:31:52,559 --> 00:31:56,279 not really ready to go further than that. I don't know. I don't 497 00:31:56,279 --> 00:31:59,480 know where you're at. Yeah, we're not. I one don't Maybe it 498 00:31:59,519 --> 00:32:00,720 is being taught about and I'm just not seeing it, I feel like we're 499 00:32:00,759 --> 00:32:05,240 not talking enough about the fact that Dono Mitchell hasn't played in a month and 500 00:32:05,319 --> 00:32:09,279 is now just coming back. Does that at all make Utah easier to defend? 501 00:32:09,319 --> 00:32:15,079 They have other shot makers when you look at Jordan Clarkson or shot takers 502 00:32:15,079 --> 00:32:17,160 depending on the night. For Jordan Clarkson, I'm always a maker. Joe 503 00:32:17,279 --> 00:32:21,640 Ingles buyon Bardanovitch, you might kindly miss a ton of time towards the end 504 00:32:21,640 --> 00:32:23,640 of the regular season. I do think there's a path. I mean, 505 00:32:23,640 --> 00:32:28,079 you outlined it of this becoming a series. The Draymond at the five stuff. 506 00:32:28,319 --> 00:32:30,920 I don't know what that does. It could very easily backfire on Golden 507 00:32:30,920 --> 00:32:32,640 State as well. If Rudy Gobert states in the court, I don't know 508 00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:36,440 how you match up with that. Part of me also is like, well, 509 00:32:36,920 --> 00:32:40,039 who's guarding Draymond Green for the Warriors for the Jazz. But then it 510 00:32:40,039 --> 00:32:43,440 also kind of doesn't matter with the way that Green plays off, Like you 511 00:32:43,480 --> 00:32:45,440 just look at how the Lakers defended him, didn't you know they doubled and 512 00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:49,240 tripled off of him. They just didn't care about him. Let him take 513 00:32:49,279 --> 00:32:52,839 wide open threes. You can use Gobert in that situation if you really just 514 00:32:52,880 --> 00:32:57,960 want to so does it neutralize the threat of the Curry Draymond green pick and 515 00:32:58,039 --> 00:33:01,559 roll at all. It's one of those situations where, because Golden State is 516 00:33:01,559 --> 00:33:06,200 so good defensively and you're not going to have Conley or Mitchell presumably at full 517 00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:09,720 strength, how disruptive Golden State could be if they give Jta. I was 518 00:33:09,799 --> 00:33:13,000 surprised that he didn't play. I know he played twenty five plus minutes, 519 00:33:13,079 --> 00:33:15,720 but he really wasn't on the court, like during the most important moments for 520 00:33:15,759 --> 00:33:17,359 that Lakers game. I think he can help them there, having him and 521 00:33:17,440 --> 00:33:21,599 Draymond Greene on the court, even Andrew Wiggins, like they could really gum 522 00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:24,079 up things for Utah offensively. But then I'm also like, how do you 523 00:33:24,079 --> 00:33:28,720 defend if you're Golden State go Bears roles. He's gotten a lot better at 524 00:33:28,720 --> 00:33:31,680 spraying passes on them, and just in general, he's always had the the 525 00:33:31,759 --> 00:33:37,720 power and quality finishing on the role like Cavan Looney Draymond greenl I don't are 526 00:33:37,720 --> 00:33:40,519 they built to do anything like that. I think Steph wins them at least 527 00:33:40,519 --> 00:33:45,440 a game on his own, and that's why I'm inclined to go Warriors in 528 00:33:45,559 --> 00:33:46,880 six because if you know you're going to get a game, and that's what 529 00:33:46,880 --> 00:33:51,000 I'm doing entering into this series on behalf of the Warriors. I don't think 530 00:33:51,000 --> 00:33:53,319 the path to getting another one is all that outrageous looking at Utah's makeup, 531 00:33:53,440 --> 00:33:58,319 given what we've mentioned about Mitchell and Conley, and I do think that Golden 532 00:33:58,359 --> 00:34:01,440 State, maybe aside from Bears roles like they could really do give them some 533 00:34:01,480 --> 00:34:05,359 issues. My two quick X factors would be, I think I'll pick him 534 00:34:05,400 --> 00:34:07,719 for every single series that the Warriors are alive in, so just this one, 535 00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:14,039 Jordan Poole, they need another guy who cannot just make the shots away 536 00:34:14,079 --> 00:34:16,639 from Steman Curry, but who can also create them in the let's say six 537 00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:21,840 to ten minutes. He's not on the floor, and Andrew Wiggins, he's 538 00:34:21,880 --> 00:34:23,519 still too idle in the moments he plays. About Stephen Curry, I think 539 00:34:23,519 --> 00:34:27,119 he's so important to this team. Defensively, He's shown that he can take 540 00:34:27,119 --> 00:34:29,880 advantage of some of the wide open opportunities. He has not been the go 541 00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:35,079 getter without Stephen Curry on the floor, So as a secondary creator alongside Staff 542 00:34:35,199 --> 00:34:37,159 or in the minutes he's sitting. It's Jordan Pool for me. I think 543 00:34:37,159 --> 00:34:40,400 it has to be Royce O'Neil for Utah, just because he's going to see 544 00:34:40,719 --> 00:34:44,440 the line share of the time against deaf. But I think you have a 545 00:34:44,440 --> 00:34:47,119 couple of different options there as well. Yeah, I think one thing, 546 00:34:47,639 --> 00:34:51,079 I'll do a couple of X factors and sort of get to them in a 547 00:34:51,159 --> 00:34:53,920 roundabout way. But I think specifically, I think we agree that defensively, 548 00:34:53,960 --> 00:35:00,320 the Warriors can really can make this difficult. And that's large because the Jazz 549 00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:07,559 have struggled consistently in the postseason against switching because they just they haven't had guys, 550 00:35:07,760 --> 00:35:10,400 even Mitchell, that you know, that have consistently been able to break 551 00:35:10,440 --> 00:35:15,039 down a defense and get consistently, you know, efficient opportunities to score. 552 00:35:15,519 --> 00:35:22,239 And so if Mitchell and Conley are compromised, like now you're talking about boy 553 00:35:22,320 --> 00:35:27,559 Jordan Clarkson's important to this offense and man like Joe Ingles has gotta you know, 554 00:35:27,599 --> 00:35:30,400 do a lot more with the ball in his hands. And and it's 555 00:35:30,440 --> 00:35:36,760 it gets tough because you know, even really even if if Conley or Mitchell 556 00:35:36,880 --> 00:35:40,039 are fully healthy, the switches you're going to be generating and crunch time are 557 00:35:40,039 --> 00:35:44,400 going to get you Toscano Anderson or Green on either of those guys, Like, 558 00:35:44,519 --> 00:35:46,159 I don't know, that's that's that's not the worst set up, certainly 559 00:35:46,159 --> 00:35:51,599 in Green's case for the Warriors. But that's why I kind of think Mitchell's 560 00:35:51,599 --> 00:35:53,079 too easy to pick as the X factor for me. I think it's Conley, 561 00:35:53,199 --> 00:35:58,119 and that's he's someone that I've kind of been. He seemed like a 562 00:35:58,199 --> 00:36:00,480 key guy all year for that reason because he's going to get a lot of 563 00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:05,599 centers switched on to him, I think, and he's going to need to 564 00:36:05,599 --> 00:36:07,639 be able to make something happen. It'll be hard against the Warriors, who 565 00:36:07,679 --> 00:36:12,599 I think will probably not play a conventional center as much as most teams. 566 00:36:12,639 --> 00:36:16,360 But I think Conley's really going to matter for the Warriors, Like, yeah, 567 00:36:16,400 --> 00:36:20,559 I mean, pool matters. He's probably their third most important player after 568 00:36:20,639 --> 00:36:23,400 Kurry and Green, just because of what he's able to do as a shot 569 00:36:23,440 --> 00:36:27,840 creator that they just don't have anywhere else. I don't know. I feel 570 00:36:27,840 --> 00:36:30,760 like Wiggins is kind of an X factor because he has to be fully engaged 571 00:36:30,800 --> 00:36:34,440 all the time on both ends and that just doesn't always happen. But if 572 00:36:34,440 --> 00:36:37,719 he is then maybe this gets more interesting. I still I think are we 573 00:36:37,760 --> 00:36:43,480 agreeing that it's a jazz and six. Yes, and it's almost by virtue 574 00:36:43,599 --> 00:36:46,360 of only Stephen Curry and the defense that I'm willing to give the Warriors two 575 00:36:46,360 --> 00:36:50,920 games. Yeah, pretty much. I agree. I'm wondering if this choice. 576 00:36:50,960 --> 00:36:53,360 I don't think it's going to surprise you, but just going in order 577 00:36:53,400 --> 00:36:58,559 as we're building up the interest the three v six matchup in the West between 578 00:36:58,599 --> 00:37:00,559 the Nuggets and Blazers, I would be more. I'm still curious, and 579 00:37:00,599 --> 00:37:05,000 I'm I think we're at the point where I don't think that there's going to 580 00:37:05,039 --> 00:37:07,480 be a bad series. It was once we got past really Philly in Washington 581 00:37:07,559 --> 00:37:12,480 and Celtics nets. I am genuinely intrigued by all these matchups. If Jamal 582 00:37:12,559 --> 00:37:17,440 Murray was available, I would be far more inclined to boost this series up. 583 00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:22,159 But thoughts, general impressions, X factors, takeaway things to watch anything 584 00:37:22,480 --> 00:37:27,320 on this matchup. This is my first upset pick and I don't even like 585 00:37:27,400 --> 00:37:30,639 the Blazers that much as which is the crazy thing. I just I think 586 00:37:30,679 --> 00:37:36,639 that I like the matchup a little bit. With Yokich having to be out 587 00:37:36,679 --> 00:37:39,719 on the floor involved in a lot of screen high screen action with Dame Lillard. 588 00:37:40,639 --> 00:37:45,480 I think that's a problem for the Nuggets. I think both of these 589 00:37:45,519 --> 00:37:50,000 defenses are not good, but the Blazers defense with their new lineup has actually 590 00:37:50,000 --> 00:37:52,920 been okay. And I think Nurkicch is a pretty good guy to throw at 591 00:37:53,000 --> 00:37:57,679 Yokich. I mean, if only because they're kind of familiar from playing together, 592 00:37:57,760 --> 00:38:00,639 but also because he's just big and he's physical, and you know, 593 00:38:00,800 --> 00:38:02,960 he's pretty close to as good as you're gonna do against your kitch. There's 594 00:38:02,960 --> 00:38:07,920 no there's no answer for him. But yeah, I think I think Portland, 595 00:38:08,079 --> 00:38:12,320 you know, has McCollum as a sort of a second option to score 596 00:38:12,519 --> 00:38:15,559 that. You know, I guess the Nuggets ordered you know, Michael Porter 597 00:38:15,599 --> 00:38:20,039 has been great, but man, they're thin on the wings after that. 598 00:38:20,199 --> 00:38:27,199 And Fukundo Composito is he really is he really gonna bother either Lillard or McCollum. 599 00:38:27,239 --> 00:38:30,079 So I think there's not going to be a lot of great defense played. 600 00:38:30,159 --> 00:38:34,599 And I think the way that Portland goes into its offense with high screen 601 00:38:34,679 --> 00:38:37,199 action for Lillard is really gonna be a problem for the Nuggets. So I 602 00:38:37,840 --> 00:38:44,880 think I feel pretty good about Portland Portland, and I had it as six. 603 00:38:45,000 --> 00:38:46,960 But that would mean that Portland would have to close it out. No, 604 00:38:47,039 --> 00:38:50,760 that would be okay because Portland's closing it out at home there. That's 605 00:38:50,800 --> 00:38:54,760 I'm good with that. Blazers and six, that's my pick. The Blazers 606 00:38:54,760 --> 00:39:00,559 are more interesting because they've they're terrible defense overall on the seas, but they've 607 00:39:00,559 --> 00:39:04,840 been closer to league average since use of Nurkis's return overall from injury, and 608 00:39:04,880 --> 00:39:07,079 then when you look at the minutes with him on the court, they rank 609 00:39:07,400 --> 00:39:12,960 in the eighty first percentile of defensive efficiency that includes all line up who have 610 00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:15,519 logged at least fifteen possessions. That's actually huge, that's huge. I agree 611 00:39:15,559 --> 00:39:19,559 with what you said about him going up against Yokich. I don't know how 612 00:39:19,599 --> 00:39:22,800 much it helps. When Yoki is now scooting by guys off the dribble and 613 00:39:22,880 --> 00:39:25,760 taking these taking threes, we're seeing more willing to take threes. He also 614 00:39:25,800 --> 00:39:29,920 when you look at his splits, he just seems more willing and better at 615 00:39:29,920 --> 00:39:32,199 shooting threes in the postseason, and so if there's an improvement from the point 616 00:39:32,280 --> 00:39:36,840 that he's at right now, I still think Portland's in trouble. The Michael 617 00:39:36,840 --> 00:39:42,280 Porter Junior question is so fair because he played fantastic basketball after the Murray injury 618 00:39:42,519 --> 00:39:45,280 and they did give him a little bit more on ball responsibility. There still 619 00:39:45,320 --> 00:39:49,440 wasn't someone who was generating a ton of his own looks and he doesn't set 620 00:39:49,480 --> 00:39:53,000 up the offense like Jamal Murray would. I also, you mentioned how are 621 00:39:53,000 --> 00:39:55,480 they going to defend CJ. McCollum and Dame That would have been a problem 622 00:39:55,519 --> 00:39:59,639 to begin with. I do think for Kunda Compazo, just the pressure he 623 00:39:59,679 --> 00:40:02,280 can put on the ball without getting burned, that will help. They're gonna 624 00:40:02,280 --> 00:40:06,440 miss p J Dojer against those matchups. Well, even if you used him 625 00:40:06,440 --> 00:40:09,679 to go after Norman Powell, who gives the Blazers that North South explosion, 626 00:40:09,880 --> 00:40:13,920 and I think, for some reason I can't explain it, and I didn't 627 00:40:14,000 --> 00:40:16,480 dive into numbers for it, I feel like he might have helped the Blazers 628 00:40:16,480 --> 00:40:22,159 defensively as well, because he's more of just like this in your face guy 629 00:40:22,159 --> 00:40:23,960 and has the big play potential on defense where yeah, he'll get burned, 630 00:40:23,960 --> 00:40:29,360 Whereas Gary Trent Jr. Was just solid positionally, but they needed because they're 631 00:40:29,360 --> 00:40:32,559 not super talented defensively, aside from Corvington and Nurkis. They need that guy 632 00:40:32,880 --> 00:40:37,599 who's going to give them energy and make big plays, even if sometimes it 633 00:40:37,639 --> 00:40:42,159 comes at the expense of other possessions. I just look and I'm not sure 634 00:40:42,199 --> 00:40:44,800 how Denver is going to defend that. They have Aaron Gordon, which helps, 635 00:40:45,360 --> 00:40:49,239 But Aaron Gordon has spent more time defending guards than I thought he did 636 00:40:49,280 --> 00:40:52,000 this year. But do you want Aaron Gordon on Dame like that? I 637 00:40:52,000 --> 00:40:55,480 don't do you want him on CJ. McCollum. I just don't know my 638 00:40:55,599 --> 00:41:00,079 inclination though, given how Klutchiokich has been this season, well, the Nuggets 639 00:41:00,119 --> 00:41:04,679 played overall without Jamal Murray. What Michael Porter Junior gives you, and he's 640 00:41:04,719 --> 00:41:07,480 been a better help defender. I don't know how much that might necessarily matter 641 00:41:07,519 --> 00:41:12,079 in this series, but if you are worried about Powell and McCollum and Lillard 642 00:41:12,119 --> 00:41:15,760 breaking through what's happening on the perimeter, Michael Porter Junior might actually become key 643 00:41:15,840 --> 00:41:19,559 there. I'm going Nuggets in seven. I don't feel great about it. 644 00:41:19,679 --> 00:41:22,360 I feel a lot better about it if we knew what was going on with 645 00:41:22,400 --> 00:41:24,599 Will Barton at the moment, because we know Dozier won't play, we know 646 00:41:24,679 --> 00:41:28,280 Murray won't play. I believe Monte Morris is back, so that gives you 647 00:41:28,320 --> 00:41:31,599 a little bit extra creation. But Barton is closer to the whole package than 648 00:41:32,119 --> 00:41:37,039 a Composo or a Monte Morris or even a Michael Porter Junior, just because 649 00:41:37,039 --> 00:41:40,280 I think Barton's the better table setter than any of those guys. I just 650 00:41:40,320 --> 00:41:45,559 can't pick against Yo Kitch right now, and I think he'll set up gimmes 651 00:41:45,599 --> 00:41:49,440 for Michael Porter Junior. It's the same thing who's defending Michael Porter j on 652 00:41:49,480 --> 00:41:52,519 the Blazers. Robert Covington's fantastic off the ball, but if you're putting the 653 00:41:52,559 --> 00:41:55,800 ball more in Michael Porter Junior's hands and that's the matchup, how good do 654 00:41:55,800 --> 00:42:00,320 you actually feel about that? Yeah? No, I think that's all fair, 655 00:42:00,440 --> 00:42:04,760 I'll give you. I didn't realize I was kind of leaning on this 656 00:42:04,800 --> 00:42:07,960 without knowing the numbers exactly, but I looked them up, so in it's 657 00:42:07,960 --> 00:42:10,679 only eight hundred and forty four possessions, which is not a ton, but 658 00:42:10,800 --> 00:42:16,360 it's fairly significant. The lineup, especially, Yeah, the lineup of Lillard 659 00:42:16,400 --> 00:42:22,199 McCollum, Powell, Covington, and Nurkicch is plus fourteen point one net rating. 660 00:42:23,159 --> 00:42:28,079 They're good on both ends that their defensive rank defensive rating is one oh 661 00:42:28,159 --> 00:42:30,559 five point one. This is cleaning the glass, no no garbage time, 662 00:42:30,840 --> 00:42:37,880 like I don't know, Man's that's compelling to me. And and just having 663 00:42:37,119 --> 00:42:40,039 Lillard, McCollum, Powell, and Nurkicch. It's plus fifteen point nine and 664 00:42:40,039 --> 00:42:44,480 they're scoring one hundred and twenty point five points per one hundred possessions given up 665 00:42:44,480 --> 00:42:47,320 one or four point six. And those guys are gonna play the lion's share 666 00:42:47,400 --> 00:42:52,599 minutes. I forget now, I'm gonna I think it was Dan Feldman for 667 00:42:52,760 --> 00:42:57,320 NBC just kind of looked at the playoff series, or looked at the playoff 668 00:42:57,400 --> 00:43:00,840 rotations as if you know, you're just gonna play your five guys, which 669 00:43:00,920 --> 00:43:02,719 is you know that's not the case. But that's a pretty quick and dirty 670 00:43:02,760 --> 00:43:06,159 way to get an idea of how good these teams are. Because the benches 671 00:43:06,159 --> 00:43:09,639 don't matter as much. The Blazers are a lot better than their overall numbers 672 00:43:09,639 --> 00:43:14,639 look. Certainly their defensive rating looks on the year. If they just lean 673 00:43:14,719 --> 00:43:17,400 on their best players, and so it sucks. I hate picking against Yoka. 674 00:43:17,519 --> 00:43:21,599 She's the best player in the series. He's obviously the MVP. But 675 00:43:22,239 --> 00:43:24,719 I think Portland's kind of sneaky. I think, I think, I don't 676 00:43:24,719 --> 00:43:28,800 know how you feel, but I got a little anchored to their really ugly 677 00:43:28,920 --> 00:43:31,559 skid when suddenly all the Dame Lillard's unhappy and Terry Stotts is on the hot 678 00:43:31,599 --> 00:43:36,280 seat and this thing's going south, and I just buried him. And then 679 00:43:36,679 --> 00:43:39,360 man, they finished strong and their five best players are are good. So 680 00:43:39,480 --> 00:43:44,280 I kind of like the upset here in six. It's wild to me they 681 00:43:44,280 --> 00:43:45,800 were going in six. I've nuggets in seven, so I could clearly see 682 00:43:45,840 --> 00:43:50,280 it going either way. Who do you have any X factors? I think 683 00:43:50,679 --> 00:43:52,440 one thing I am interest to see is how does Denver tighten up its rotation. 684 00:43:52,719 --> 00:43:57,679 Maybe the decisions are made organically based on who's available, but like Austin 685 00:43:57,800 --> 00:44:01,320 Rivers and Shack Harrison, we're playing meaningful minutes for this team by the close 686 00:44:01,360 --> 00:44:05,599 of the regular season, and that could happen here. I think I still 687 00:44:05,639 --> 00:44:12,760 go Aaron Gordon just because I think he's going to see time against the dynamic 688 00:44:12,800 --> 00:44:16,119 duo in Portland, he defended point guards and shooting guards on more than a 689 00:44:16,239 --> 00:44:21,840 third or about a third of his partial possessions on defense this year. I 690 00:44:21,920 --> 00:44:27,239 think you have to unless you really trust Fakuno, Compazzo, Morris and Rivers 691 00:44:27,400 --> 00:44:30,400 as the combination to get after those two. But Gordon's gonna have to shoulder 692 00:44:30,400 --> 00:44:32,679 a lot of defensively, and they need more from him offensively too, because 693 00:44:32,719 --> 00:44:37,559 after sort of the honeymoon start, he slowed down there. I don't know 694 00:44:37,599 --> 00:44:39,800 what my X factor is for Portland because I don't want to pick anyone in 695 00:44:39,840 --> 00:44:45,280 the starting lineup or that main five. And they also did shorten their rotation 696 00:44:45,639 --> 00:44:47,480 a ton towards the end of the regular season. So you mentioned playing your 697 00:44:47,519 --> 00:44:52,599 best players. I totally agree with you there, They've already started doing it. 698 00:44:52,960 --> 00:44:57,079 I guess could you just go mellow or is an Anthony Simons, those 699 00:44:57,119 --> 00:45:00,360 two guys, anyone who could spare give you some minute. It's offensively where 700 00:45:00,400 --> 00:45:05,920 you can sit Dame and or CJ. I'll just lean. I'll default to 701 00:45:05,920 --> 00:45:08,559 melt there. It's not gonna be an as Canner for me because they'll play 702 00:45:08,639 --> 00:45:12,719 him. But my guests is going to be that you have nerd kis playing 703 00:45:12,719 --> 00:45:15,239 thirty plus minutes per game. You also have the option of do use Rondey 704 00:45:15,239 --> 00:45:20,039 Hollis, Jefferson or Robert Covington even at the five being Derek Jones junior. 705 00:45:20,079 --> 00:45:22,480 Like dude, there are are these different types of line up, so they 706 00:45:22,480 --> 00:45:25,000 haven't necessarily leaned upon a ton this year. But this could be a series 707 00:45:25,039 --> 00:45:28,960 where maybe it doesn't make so much sense to have Canner on the floor as 708 00:45:29,039 --> 00:45:30,800 much, or do you like him against Joe Kich in that scenario, I'm 709 00:45:30,840 --> 00:45:34,880 just a fault thing to Mellow here because why not. He's coming off the 710 00:45:34,880 --> 00:45:37,039 bench, and I don't think the Blazers have a strong bench overall. As 711 00:45:37,079 --> 00:45:39,960 much as we may like some of the guys, I still remain intrigued by 712 00:45:40,000 --> 00:45:43,400 he's not healthy, but to see your little if anyone cares about that. 713 00:45:44,440 --> 00:45:47,199 But and Anthony Simon seems to get post April. Anthony Simon's after April first 714 00:45:47,199 --> 00:45:50,880 feels like he's always a threat. But I'll default to Mellow. It's my 715 00:45:50,880 --> 00:45:53,360 ex factor for Portland. Yeah. I was gonna say cancer, but like 716 00:45:53,400 --> 00:45:57,599 in the bad way, where which is to say that if cancer? The 717 00:45:57,760 --> 00:46:00,079 X factor is that if he has to play a lot. I think I 718 00:46:00,079 --> 00:46:04,400 would take my pickback because because like that's just that's just a death sentence having 719 00:46:04,480 --> 00:46:07,679 him try to handle Yokichen space and with guys cutting and pick and rolls and 720 00:46:07,719 --> 00:46:15,119 all kinds of stuff. Isn't it interesting that the best thing about Aaron Gordon 721 00:46:15,199 --> 00:46:20,480 on The Nuggets was that in theory, finally he's gonna just do the stuff 722 00:46:20,480 --> 00:46:22,440 that he's good at, and he's gonna he's gonna scale down, he's gonna 723 00:46:22,440 --> 00:46:25,480 trim the fat from his game that Orlando is always trying to. He or 724 00:46:25,519 --> 00:46:29,559 He wanted to always be a little more than he was, and now that's 725 00:46:29,559 --> 00:46:31,639 exactly what's being asked of him. He's you gotta up the playmaking. You're 726 00:46:31,639 --> 00:46:36,400 gonna have to score more. You're gonna have to guard multiple positions, and 727 00:46:36,559 --> 00:46:38,559 he is their X factor because he's the asks are going to be huge. 728 00:46:39,239 --> 00:46:44,159 It's just interesting that that this perfect fit because he was going to sort of 729 00:46:44,199 --> 00:46:47,119 scale back a lot of the stuff that he had to do. Now suddenly 730 00:46:47,159 --> 00:46:52,559 he's it's almost it's like an amplified version of Orlando where he's just he has 731 00:46:52,599 --> 00:46:54,920 no choice but to sort of get out of you have to play sort of 732 00:46:54,920 --> 00:46:59,599 outside of himself for the Nuggets to really do well here. Yeah, I 733 00:46:59,599 --> 00:47:00,679 do want if they try. I don't know why it have to be in 734 00:47:00,960 --> 00:47:05,280 yo kitchless minutes, which there aren't going to be many of those. Do 735 00:47:05,360 --> 00:47:07,760 they need him to play make a little bit based on if Wilbarton's not available, 736 00:47:07,920 --> 00:47:10,079 but maybe they could. I would say the biggest thing for him is 737 00:47:10,079 --> 00:47:14,599 he needs to knock down the threes and I stay moving on offense because he's 738 00:47:14,639 --> 00:47:16,039 been fine when he's moving off the ball and trying to finish, but it 739 00:47:16,079 --> 00:47:21,079 feels like he's not always moving as much as he he should be. Yeah, 740 00:47:21,119 --> 00:47:23,559 I agree, So go ahead. No, I was just gonna I 741 00:47:23,639 --> 00:47:30,440 was just gonna say it's reiterate that Gordon's role in this series is massive Blazers 742 00:47:30,480 --> 00:47:35,599 in six for you, I have Nuggets in seven. The next matchup for 743 00:47:35,639 --> 00:47:37,079 me, I feel like it should be higher. Granted we only have three 744 00:47:37,159 --> 00:47:42,400 left. The three v six matchup in the East, which is Bucks Heat. 745 00:47:42,760 --> 00:47:46,000 It's we know what happened last year. Everyone always questions Milwaukee. I 746 00:47:46,039 --> 00:47:50,960 think the reason I almost feel like this intrigue levels inflated by me. I 747 00:47:51,000 --> 00:47:53,360 don't think the Heat have a chance in this series, and I'm just curious 748 00:47:53,400 --> 00:47:59,840 how you feel. So it's it's I think, maybe like my second most 749 00:48:00,159 --> 00:48:02,480 interesting series. But then I have Bucks in five, so I agree, 750 00:48:02,559 --> 00:48:06,880 Like there's I want to it's all it's I mean, it's all all the 751 00:48:06,920 --> 00:48:08,920 cases all there, right, you know Miami handed it to him last year. 752 00:48:09,639 --> 00:48:14,639 Uh that Eric Spolster is a great postseason coach. They have autobio to 753 00:48:14,960 --> 00:48:17,719 get in Janie's way. That's worked. We've seen that work in the past. 754 00:48:19,400 --> 00:48:22,360 Uh. Just the heat again, the kind of like the Boston thing. 755 00:48:22,440 --> 00:48:27,039 I think, I think the heat are I think they played over their 756 00:48:27,039 --> 00:48:30,039 heads the last year obviously to make the finals. They're not. They're not 757 00:48:30,079 --> 00:48:35,239 even as good as last year's regular season heat, and the playoff heat were 758 00:48:35,519 --> 00:48:38,119 three notches above that, so they're they're not starting with at the same level 759 00:48:38,159 --> 00:48:43,159 as they were when they made their jump last year. But it's it's more, 760 00:48:43,199 --> 00:48:46,239 it's more gut thing. It's it's the pressure on Buddenholzer, the fact 761 00:48:46,320 --> 00:48:51,000 that he has failed to adjust a million times, and nobody forces adjustments more 762 00:48:51,039 --> 00:48:53,280 than the heat and more than Spolstra. But then it's just a talent thing. 763 00:48:53,519 --> 00:48:57,639 And the Bucks have so much of it, and they really have kind 764 00:48:57,639 --> 00:49:00,960 of played this season in anticipation of have to play different styles in a playoff 765 00:49:01,000 --> 00:49:06,199 series, and so if they're ever gonna be ready for the Heat or a 766 00:49:06,199 --> 00:49:08,960 team like the Heat, it's gotta be now. But I agree it's it's 767 00:49:09,079 --> 00:49:12,840 it's still like a super interesting series. If the Bucks lose Game one, 768 00:49:12,920 --> 00:49:15,360 for example, can you imagine the like the what the vibes are gonna be. 769 00:49:15,480 --> 00:49:21,000 It's gonna be. I mean, it'll be fantastic, But it's yeah, 770 00:49:21,119 --> 00:49:23,159 same, it's hard. It's hard to see a way for the Heat 771 00:49:23,199 --> 00:49:27,480 to win the series or even really be competitive since I'm picking a five game 772 00:49:27,519 --> 00:49:30,360 series. But but I agree with you that there's just something about it that 773 00:49:30,400 --> 00:49:35,079 feels, you know, like there's the potential for something interesting. And look 774 00:49:35,119 --> 00:49:37,440 the fact that I know we talked about how much more the Bucks switched, 775 00:49:37,480 --> 00:49:43,519 but they person energy increase the frequency with which they played zone basically six by 776 00:49:43,559 --> 00:49:46,760 six times. I'm wondering if that matters versus the Heat, because they improved 777 00:49:46,760 --> 00:49:50,719 their three point clip a bunch towards the end of the season, since about 778 00:49:50,760 --> 00:49:53,159 April first. But you look at them and they don't have a ton of 779 00:49:53,199 --> 00:49:58,400 great shooters. Jimmy Butler doesn't take a bunch of threes anymore. Out a 780 00:49:58,440 --> 00:50:00,239 bio lives from the mid range more than he's going to from beyond, and 781 00:50:00,239 --> 00:50:05,199 you'll be okay with him taking those looks. There's Duncan Robinson, but who's 782 00:50:05,239 --> 00:50:07,679 just the guy that's going to be lights out aside from Duncan Rott And if 783 00:50:07,719 --> 00:50:10,559 you can force the Heat to sort of live on the perimeter, it's like 784 00:50:10,639 --> 00:50:15,599 similar to what the Heat we're trying to do with Jannie last year. I 785 00:50:15,639 --> 00:50:17,840 will say that is the pathway though, because the Heat excel or know how 786 00:50:17,840 --> 00:50:22,119 to play his zone so well. Does that give Milwaukee problems? I think, 787 00:50:22,599 --> 00:50:25,400 Look, Eric Bletzo was dogshit for New Orleans this year and maybe had 788 00:50:25,400 --> 00:50:29,480 a lot of stuff going on. I personally had to change teams pandemic all 789 00:50:29,519 --> 00:50:31,400 that, not trying to dump all over him. Actually drew out is a 790 00:50:31,400 --> 00:50:37,119 massive upgrade offensively, huge can score at every level where Bletso just in the 791 00:50:37,119 --> 00:50:45,000 postseason specifically cannot and is Miami zone going to be that effective then against Milwaukee 792 00:50:45,039 --> 00:50:46,400 when you have Through Holliday in Middleton on the court. At the same time, 793 00:50:46,679 --> 00:50:51,440 The other thing to note here and the numbers don't support the finishing as 794 00:50:51,519 --> 00:50:52,840 with the honest as a screener, but the fact that he's doing it more 795 00:50:52,920 --> 00:50:57,000 and can be used as a decoy in those instances, maybe that's the way 796 00:50:57,000 --> 00:51:00,960 to bust through Miami Zone at points. I honestly don't know. I'm genuinely 797 00:51:00,000 --> 00:51:06,000 curious. My X factor here would be Mike Budenholzer to see how many adjustments 798 00:51:06,000 --> 00:51:08,800 he actually makes throughout the series. He is he willing. Look, the 799 00:51:08,800 --> 00:51:13,880 Bucks made a ton of adjustments this year, so if that informs what's going 800 00:51:13,920 --> 00:51:17,400 to happen, they'll be fine, I guess. But it's it's Mike Budenholzer 801 00:51:17,440 --> 00:51:21,639 what we have to You know, you could is it Janie's jumper if you 802 00:51:21,639 --> 00:51:27,079 want to say that. I just if they're the other thing I want to 803 00:51:27,079 --> 00:51:29,199 see from them is what I was getting at. They didn't really play and 804 00:51:29,239 --> 00:51:30,880 I know PJ. Tucker was injured for a bit. We didn't see a 805 00:51:30,880 --> 00:51:34,880 ton of p J. Tucker and Jannis as the primary front court. I 806 00:51:34,880 --> 00:51:37,920 think that's something that in every single playoff matchup that they'll have is going to 807 00:51:37,920 --> 00:51:40,880 be important. Are they going to go to more of that? How much 808 00:51:40,880 --> 00:51:45,880 are you relying on brook Lopez. You're so good at preventing shots at the 809 00:51:45,960 --> 00:51:49,880 rim. But like is Jimmy Butler is going up against Jimmy Butler sort of 810 00:51:49,880 --> 00:51:53,400 a different beast there. My X factor for Miami is Tyler. Hero played 811 00:51:53,400 --> 00:51:58,159 so well in the Bubble at points last year very up and down this year, 812 00:51:58,440 --> 00:52:00,800 had a pretty strong close to the season him though, and they need 813 00:52:00,880 --> 00:52:04,920 someone other than Butler, and at a bio you can even talk me into 814 00:52:04,960 --> 00:52:07,840 draw it's just because he's not the same player he was last season. You 815 00:52:07,840 --> 00:52:08,920 taught me to Trevor reas it too, because he has to play the role 816 00:52:08,960 --> 00:52:12,800 of Jay Crowder, which is part of what made the Heat so dangerous last 817 00:52:12,880 --> 00:52:15,000 year. Crowder had some really good moments defending a tent to Coupo. They 818 00:52:15,079 --> 00:52:17,960 lost that. I'm not going to say that Jake Crowder is the sole reason 819 00:52:19,000 --> 00:52:22,960 the Heat aren't where they were last season, but he's a bigger reason than 820 00:52:22,960 --> 00:52:25,320 I think people have really noted. Because you can't you can do things like 821 00:52:25,320 --> 00:52:29,079 maybe Andre Goodala helps you there. You lose a hell of a lot of 822 00:52:29,239 --> 00:52:36,199 floor spacing if you're playing Bam Butler and Igodala at the same time. Yeah, 823 00:52:36,199 --> 00:52:37,480 how dare you take both of my ex factors. I was gonna say 824 00:52:37,519 --> 00:52:42,400 Tucker kind of in the same to be fair name half to Heats roster. 825 00:52:42,480 --> 00:52:45,679 So there's a good chance I was gonna see your d is gonna be my 826 00:52:45,719 --> 00:52:47,960 backup, and then you just went ahead and listened him off too. I 827 00:52:49,000 --> 00:52:52,679 think Tucker so sort of in the same vein as as I'm interested in what 828 00:52:52,719 --> 00:52:55,719 Ibacca is gonna look like, because Tucker is so important in theory for what 829 00:52:55,960 --> 00:53:00,920 the best version of this Bucks team wants to be, and I certainly was 830 00:53:00,960 --> 00:53:06,039 not satisfied in the regular season that he's anything close to Rockets PJ Tucker. 831 00:53:06,559 --> 00:53:10,079 You know that that could do do PJ Tucker stuff for I don't know, 832 00:53:10,480 --> 00:53:14,800 twenty five minutes a game. I mean even that, you know, so 833 00:53:14,880 --> 00:53:17,360 I want to know maybe this isn't the series where the Heat or where the 834 00:53:17,400 --> 00:53:23,519 Bucks either need that. I just would echo the Hero stuff because I don't. 835 00:53:23,519 --> 00:53:27,960 I don't think it's realistic to expect Rockets to have just another incredible turn 836 00:53:28,000 --> 00:53:31,079 back the clock postseason run. So if there's gonna be an sort of an 837 00:53:31,079 --> 00:53:36,199 overperformer, it makes more sense for it to be Hero, since you know 838 00:53:36,360 --> 00:53:40,519 he is he can get his own he can get his own toughs. That's 839 00:53:40,599 --> 00:53:44,599 kind of the problem. But tough shots might be all that Heat can generate 840 00:53:44,599 --> 00:53:47,079 against this defense anyway, with all the link that has And I mean, 841 00:53:47,119 --> 00:53:50,679 if he gets, you know, locked up on Drew Holiday, good luck, 842 00:53:50,840 --> 00:53:52,760 good luck to you. But yeah, the Heat are gonna need ways 843 00:53:52,800 --> 00:53:57,280 to score, especially from the perimeter, because the Bucks are going to surrender 844 00:53:57,280 --> 00:54:00,000 threes if they play their bass defense. So somebody's gonna have to hit him. 845 00:54:00,079 --> 00:54:02,880 And so Hero Hero seems like the likeliest candidate for that. The other 846 00:54:02,920 --> 00:54:07,559 thing with did you have a box X factor, I'm just gonna say, 847 00:54:07,599 --> 00:54:14,000 Tucker. It also could be Brent Forbes, but I think that's really dependent 848 00:54:14,119 --> 00:54:16,400 on Buddonholzer as well as are you gonna play Brent Forbes in the second half 849 00:54:16,400 --> 00:54:21,119 over Pat Conaton. It seems like they get addicted to bad Pat haunt in 850 00:54:21,199 --> 00:54:24,000 second half minutes at points. But Bryn Forbes led the NBA in points per 851 00:54:24,079 --> 00:54:27,679 touch this year, and so if you're looking for someone to maybe help bust 852 00:54:27,760 --> 00:54:30,440 up the zone and hit shots from the perimeter, I feel like he could 853 00:54:30,480 --> 00:54:34,000 be valuable. Again, it all comes back to who was buttonholes are playing 854 00:54:34,000 --> 00:54:38,199 because the Bucks are more playoff proof to me, they are also definitively shallower 855 00:54:38,320 --> 00:54:43,159 than they were last year. Yeah, that's for sure. I think we 856 00:54:43,199 --> 00:54:45,840 didn't mention too he wasn't a huge factor in the playoffs. But you know, 857 00:54:45,840 --> 00:54:49,119 when the Heat gave teams trouble with the zone, it was because Derek 858 00:54:49,199 --> 00:54:51,440 Jones Junior was at the top of it. And he's not there either. 859 00:54:51,559 --> 00:54:54,280 And he's also not really Derrick Jones Junior anymore for some reason, because that 860 00:54:54,440 --> 00:55:00,199 just that he hasn't translated in Portland. But that's just another thing that's sort 861 00:55:00,239 --> 00:55:04,159 of off the table for the Heat that worked really well. I have to 862 00:55:04,360 --> 00:55:08,800 not quote Brandon Jennings Bucks in five just like you do. I was tempted 863 00:55:08,840 --> 00:55:13,119 to put this series at the top because I feel like I'm hitting the low 864 00:55:13,159 --> 00:55:16,920 hanging fruit by putting the series will speak about last. At the same time, 865 00:55:16,960 --> 00:55:20,639 I don't want to be the homer here Nick's versus Hawks four v. 866 00:55:20,760 --> 00:55:23,760 Five in the East. I don't know that I have a feel for this 867 00:55:23,880 --> 00:55:30,039 series, do you? I don't. I Well, I think part of 868 00:55:30,079 --> 00:55:35,440 it's because here's my main concern. First of all, you are an enormous 869 00:55:35,440 --> 00:55:37,840 Homer for this to be your second most interesting series. Really, Trey Young 870 00:55:38,079 --> 00:55:43,840 in the playoffs, how do they defend Julius Randall, I think, no, 871 00:55:43,880 --> 00:55:45,599 I'm just kidding. I think I think it is interesting because how much 872 00:55:45,599 --> 00:55:50,079 we don't know because this is it's kind of dead either they have the same 873 00:55:50,119 --> 00:55:53,199 record, yes, where I think I read today there they were like their 874 00:55:53,440 --> 00:55:57,960 their point differentials would have been identical if one or the other had scored a 875 00:55:58,039 --> 00:56:00,880 single point in the sea, like one one more point in the year. 876 00:56:00,920 --> 00:56:05,440 So they're just like not mirror images, because they're very different teams. But 877 00:56:06,840 --> 00:56:09,360 I wonder, so here's my main and there's not a staff for this, 878 00:56:09,440 --> 00:56:15,360 so just take this and do with it what you will. I wonder how 879 00:56:15,440 --> 00:56:22,880 much how much the Knicks might suffer from not having another gear, you know, 880 00:56:22,039 --> 00:56:24,840 like it's such a cliche, but and I'm sure you've even heard this 881 00:56:24,920 --> 00:56:29,760 argument, but it rings true to me that part of the reason the Knicks 882 00:56:29,760 --> 00:56:31,519 were so good this year and so surprising is that Thibeau had them playing their 883 00:56:31,559 --> 00:56:36,280 asses off all the time, and their defense was wired tight to like a 884 00:56:36,320 --> 00:56:39,239 playoff level of intensity and intention to detail all the time. And they had 885 00:56:39,280 --> 00:56:44,519 to because they just didn't have elite defensive personnel something. They have good defenders, 886 00:56:44,519 --> 00:56:49,480 some very good, but I think they succeeded. You know, Randall 887 00:56:49,559 --> 00:56:52,320 being twice the player he used to be was a huge factor and some hits 888 00:56:52,320 --> 00:56:55,760 in other areas, but the defense was just on a hundred. I don't 889 00:56:55,840 --> 00:57:00,639 know if they have one hundred and ten like so I think, and that 890 00:57:00,840 --> 00:57:02,960 don't know if that's the case with the Hawks or most other playoff teams. 891 00:57:04,360 --> 00:57:08,199 So I just wonder if we've seen the best version of the Knicks and we 892 00:57:08,320 --> 00:57:12,559 know that it's about as good as the regular season version of the Hawks, 893 00:57:12,719 --> 00:57:15,840 and on the theory that the Hawks can be better than that when they play 894 00:57:15,840 --> 00:57:19,440 their best guys and you know whatever, all the other they're focused in the 895 00:57:19,440 --> 00:57:22,760 playoffs and they can scout and blah blah blah. So that I think, 896 00:57:22,800 --> 00:57:24,679 if you're looking at these two teams, is even I think that's where I 897 00:57:24,679 --> 00:57:29,880 would draw the potential point of separation is that I think that the Knicks are 898 00:57:29,920 --> 00:57:32,199 like maxed out, and so I don't know how much better they can be. 899 00:57:34,199 --> 00:57:36,960 Yeah, it's how do you increase? And I think it was John 900 00:57:37,000 --> 00:57:38,440 Hollinger who pointed this out of the athletic. How do you increase Julius Randall's 901 00:57:38,480 --> 00:57:42,679 minutes when he was playing thirty eight a game already. That's another thing. 902 00:57:42,760 --> 00:57:45,880 They've already played all their best guys like playoff rotation type style. So that 903 00:57:46,000 --> 00:57:50,559 yeah, great, that's a great point. I think what this works against 904 00:57:50,599 --> 00:57:53,599 them because they play so slow. They were thirtieth in average possession time in 905 00:57:53,599 --> 00:57:57,639 the league this year, twenty ninth after the trade deadline, so playing a 906 00:57:57,639 --> 00:58:00,760 lot faster. I don't know that you talk about the lack of the offensive, 907 00:58:01,159 --> 00:58:05,400 lack of a different gear in general. Maybe they have it defensively, 908 00:58:05,440 --> 00:58:07,559 because I think we've seen it. Everyone talks about their shot profile, allowing 909 00:58:07,559 --> 00:58:10,760 too many looks at the rim, too many threes when you really dug into 910 00:58:10,800 --> 00:58:15,639 them, especially later on in the year, the shots at the rim Newlands 911 00:58:15,679 --> 00:58:19,199 a well is just gonna eat those for breakfast. Anyway. From beyond the 912 00:58:19,280 --> 00:58:22,719 arc, they're like really selective. They help off from different spots, it 913 00:58:22,719 --> 00:58:24,679 seems like, and they'll chase guys off the above the brake looks, and 914 00:58:24,719 --> 00:58:29,480 so I think their defense is even better than people assume and should be fine 915 00:58:29,559 --> 00:58:34,880 in the playoffs. Who who do you have if you're the Hawks to throw 916 00:58:35,000 --> 00:58:37,559 at Julius Randall's The other question, do you trust Clint Capella on switches? 917 00:58:38,079 --> 00:58:42,719 I don't think it can be John Collins as okay as he's been on defense 918 00:58:42,760 --> 00:58:45,800 this year. It can be DeAndre Hunter in theory. How many minutes are 919 00:58:45,800 --> 00:58:49,800 you getting from him after he missed so much time with his injury. I 920 00:58:49,840 --> 00:58:54,559 think it was a knee injury, right, So Randall's been hitting tough shots 921 00:58:54,599 --> 00:58:58,679 all year. I'm wondering if he can actually just dice up the Hawks and 922 00:58:58,719 --> 00:59:02,960 have an easier time than normal, that will really help them. But who 923 00:59:04,159 --> 00:59:06,760 the Knicks day? You know who? And then all if the other question 924 00:59:07,000 --> 00:59:12,840 is you know who's defending? Derek Rose been spectacular for the Knicks and are 925 00:59:12,880 --> 00:59:15,000 they gonna How much we know Derek Rose will play with the starters? How 926 00:59:15,039 --> 00:59:19,159 much did they lean on the bench units that were so good for them? 927 00:59:19,159 --> 00:59:22,880 It was either RJ. Barrett plus bench units started killing people towards the end 928 00:59:22,880 --> 00:59:24,519 of the season. They've done. Julius Randol vers every bench because I do 929 00:59:24,559 --> 00:59:28,280 think a manuel quickly and Derek Rose playing them at the same time, that 930 00:59:28,360 --> 00:59:32,400 puts the hot Hawks in some dicey situations. Chris Dunn wasn't really a part 931 00:59:32,400 --> 00:59:35,400 of the rotation towards the end of the year. I don't believe even after 932 00:59:35,440 --> 00:59:37,960 he came back from injury, he would be a natural option for them to 933 00:59:38,039 --> 00:59:43,119 go after that with. But Cam Reddish still hurt. So how would you 934 00:59:43,159 --> 00:59:46,480 defend that that backcourt if you're Atlanta. I think the Knicks offense can. 935 00:59:46,519 --> 00:59:50,360 I don't think it's gonna have a higher ceiling. I think it can maintain 936 00:59:50,440 --> 00:59:54,000 the higher level of efficiency it was already playing with post All Star Break there. 937 00:59:54,800 --> 01:00:00,440 I'm still just hesitant to pick them because barn Vardanovitch has been just absolutely 938 01:00:00,519 --> 01:00:04,800 on fire. You have Trey Young, you have Kevin Hurder. They're gonna 939 01:00:04,800 --> 01:00:07,119 do a lot of different things in motion. On offense, Reggie Bullock has 940 01:00:07,159 --> 01:00:09,639 been fantastic. He'll help. I think RJ. Barrett will do well off 941 01:00:09,679 --> 01:00:14,440 the ball. It feels like they're one guy short. And I'm gonna tell 942 01:00:14,480 --> 01:00:17,519 you right now, my X factor for the Knicks surprise surprise is frank Nie 943 01:00:17,559 --> 01:00:22,719 Laikina. And if you baby, if you're not playing frank Ni Lakina in 944 01:00:22,719 --> 01:00:27,440 this series, at least fifteen minutes a game, the chances of you winning 945 01:00:27,440 --> 01:00:30,440 it to me, are exponentially lower. This is my homerism coming out. 946 01:00:30,440 --> 01:00:35,159 I'm sure who else is suited to go after Trey Young though on this team? 947 01:00:35,239 --> 01:00:39,079 Who No, that's that's a great I mean, that's a great point 948 01:00:39,119 --> 01:00:43,960 because but I do think you're tripped up and you weren't expecting to do the 949 01:00:43,960 --> 01:00:46,280 frank Nie Lakina deep died. It ties into one of the things I was 950 01:00:46,320 --> 01:00:51,719 gonna get to, which is that I'm this is maybe one of the biggest 951 01:00:51,760 --> 01:00:53,599 angles of the series, is what's Trey Young gonna look like against the playoff 952 01:00:53,599 --> 01:00:57,320 defense that tries to get the ball out of his hands? Because so I 953 01:00:57,360 --> 01:01:00,159 don't think there's gonna be one guy most of the time on him. I 954 01:01:00,199 --> 01:01:04,800 think I think you'll see a lot of traps and I think you'll see and 955 01:01:04,840 --> 01:01:07,039 this is why I'll just say DeAndre Hunters my X factor on both ends, 956 01:01:07,360 --> 01:01:12,679 which is really scary given you know, the the huge interruption, injury based 957 01:01:12,719 --> 01:01:15,519 interruption to his season this year, because I think that is the guy you 958 01:01:15,639 --> 01:01:20,719 probably hope can bother Randall the most, because I don't think he want Capella 959 01:01:20,760 --> 01:01:22,000 out there. I think he's got other stuff he needs to be doing. 960 01:01:22,719 --> 01:01:27,559 And I don't think he's mobile enough to stay with Randall, so he's so 961 01:01:27,760 --> 01:01:30,559 it's it's big on that end. It's big on the other end because if 962 01:01:30,559 --> 01:01:34,119 you are forcing the ball out of Trey Young's hands, Bogdanovic sure fine, 963 01:01:34,159 --> 01:01:37,119 totally capable. We'll see how many minutes they match him up with Young, 964 01:01:37,159 --> 01:01:38,960 because I think he might want him playing a lot of second uni minutes. 965 01:01:39,199 --> 01:01:43,559 But then that's going to fall to Hunter to create two and he looked. 966 01:01:43,719 --> 01:01:46,000 That was one of the biggest parts of his you know, early season leap 967 01:01:46,039 --> 01:01:49,599 where it was just like, man, this guy is suddenly, you know, 968 01:01:49,760 --> 01:01:52,320 one of the best five best young three and d wings with the kid 969 01:01:52,320 --> 01:01:55,800 has some off the bounce stuff and like he was just I was so sold 970 01:01:55,840 --> 01:01:59,920 on him before he got hurt. He's gonna have to play make a little 971 01:02:00,159 --> 01:02:04,800 too, because I think Nilikina clearly is the best option to put on Trey 972 01:02:04,840 --> 01:02:07,039 if you have to, it has to be one guy. And the only 973 01:02:07,000 --> 01:02:09,679 thing I'm going to say really quickly on that to interject is that if that 974 01:02:09,920 --> 01:02:15,199 is in any way something that we are saying, he should have been a 975 01:02:15,280 --> 01:02:19,079 more integral part of the rotation during the regular season that's all I'm gonna say. 976 01:02:20,639 --> 01:02:25,039 No, I'm always here for Frankie Smokes Propaganda. That's what it comes 977 01:02:25,039 --> 01:02:29,599 to you for. We are the official podcast of Frankie Smokes Propaganda. So 978 01:02:29,639 --> 01:02:32,199 you're you've come to the right place, a good place to be. Yeah. 979 01:02:32,280 --> 01:02:36,039 No, I think Hunter's really important. And that's probably the scariest part 980 01:02:36,639 --> 01:02:39,039 of all this, The Knicks X factor. I don't know who. I 981 01:02:39,039 --> 01:02:46,119 guess. I can't say Nilikina. Yeah, I don't know. It's interesting 982 01:02:46,159 --> 01:02:50,880 for them because it's like you can't I won't pick a defensive guy because they're 983 01:02:50,880 --> 01:02:53,800 just such a cohesive kind of defensive unit. I guess it would be Noel. 984 01:02:54,719 --> 01:02:58,960 You know, is he gonna be as dominant defensively as Capella? Can 985 01:02:58,960 --> 01:03:02,119 he play a bunch of minutes? Yeah, I don't know. I guess 986 01:03:02,159 --> 01:03:08,159 maybe it's quickly, just because I'd like to see how he sustains his effectiveness 987 01:03:08,239 --> 01:03:13,079 against a playoff defense. I feel like I keep going back to that, 988 01:03:13,119 --> 01:03:15,159 but I just can't. I've never been more convinced that the playoffs are just 989 01:03:15,239 --> 01:03:17,880 different. And so what you think you know about a player, especially a 990 01:03:17,920 --> 01:03:22,199 rookie, you can't really verify that until you see what happens in the playoffs. 991 01:03:22,199 --> 01:03:28,400 So I'd be curious if he is similarly effective, if he can sort 992 01:03:28,480 --> 01:03:31,239 if it's Young on him, if he can sort of make Young work and 993 01:03:31,280 --> 01:03:35,239 tire him out. That seems like that might be important if you're trying to 994 01:03:35,280 --> 01:03:37,800 slow at Lanta down on offense. Yeah, I don't know. I think 995 01:03:37,840 --> 01:03:42,159 this will be a good series. I feel bad for forgiving you shit about 996 01:03:42,159 --> 01:03:45,320 picking it as your second most interesting, because we've had a lot to say 997 01:03:45,360 --> 01:03:46,559 about it. Yeah, look, you can go. I think you go 998 01:03:46,559 --> 01:03:51,199 with Argy Barrett of Bullock as another X factor too, because I'm assuming one 999 01:03:51,239 --> 01:03:53,920 of those guys seems sees a ton of time on Bodanovitch. Maybe Block see's 1000 01:03:53,960 --> 01:03:58,519 a ton of time on Trey Young if they if the Knicks don't play Nilokin 1001 01:03:58,639 --> 01:04:00,280 in the first place, maybe even Barrett does too. I'd say it's probably 1002 01:04:00,280 --> 01:04:02,800 more likely Bullock. The other thing here is, though, how often is 1003 01:04:02,800 --> 01:04:06,840 you could say tips is Alfred Peyton playing ever in this series? And I 1004 01:04:06,880 --> 01:04:12,079 want to make it clear that because it's a pandemic season, because Alfred Peyton 1005 01:04:12,119 --> 01:04:15,800 seems all over the place on the court, I don't necessarily want to dump 1006 01:04:15,840 --> 01:04:20,440 all over him to borrow phrase from before, but he's been fucking awful this 1007 01:04:20,519 --> 01:04:25,880 year for them. They are a minus eighty three points this year when he's 1008 01:04:25,920 --> 01:04:29,519 on the court, they're plus two hundred and forty five when he's off. 1009 01:04:29,960 --> 01:04:32,760 I know a lot of those are bench minutes. I don't fucking care because 1010 01:04:32,800 --> 01:04:36,159 we've seen Rose play with the starters and they've annihilated people. I'm not even 1011 01:04:36,199 --> 01:04:41,679 saying start Rose, Start Frank Niel Akina shocker novel. I know, and 1012 01:04:41,719 --> 01:04:46,760 I understand the thought process behind starting someone like Peyton. Theoretically get you into 1013 01:04:46,800 --> 01:04:51,480 your offense where Neil Kina will not, and then it saves you have Derek 1014 01:04:51,559 --> 01:04:54,519 Rose, gives you an age off the bench. And I do think they 1015 01:04:54,519 --> 01:04:58,280 really like the idea of giving Iq and Rose minutes together because of how much 1016 01:04:58,280 --> 01:05:00,000 of a mismatch that they could be. It's not the time to do that. 1017 01:05:00,800 --> 01:05:04,360 Just up the minutes of you know, Derek Rose, just start him 1018 01:05:04,360 --> 01:05:06,920 if you want, and then just play him a ton extra minutes and hope 1019 01:05:06,920 --> 01:05:11,159 that his efficiency holds. But that's something that could lose the Knicks the series. 1020 01:05:11,440 --> 01:05:14,920 If Alfred Peyton is going to play, you know, a ceremonial fifteen 1021 01:05:14,920 --> 01:05:18,639 minutes a game. So I was gonna Peyton has been one of the most 1022 01:05:18,679 --> 01:05:24,360 inexplicable starters to me that's kept his job on any team all years. Bogans 1023 01:05:24,360 --> 01:05:31,360 doesn't even understand it. We may have to, well, so can you 1024 01:05:31,400 --> 01:05:34,639 explain why? Because I agree Payton, the numbers say it, and just 1025 01:05:34,800 --> 01:05:40,079 like just as individual numbers make you wonder, why on earth is this guy 1026 01:05:40,320 --> 01:05:45,440 starting for a playoff team all the time. So because Randall can do so 1027 01:05:45,679 --> 01:05:48,960 much with the ball, and because in theory like Barrett, actually that's kind 1028 01:05:49,000 --> 01:05:53,440 of the theory of Barrett, right, is that he's capable of, you 1029 01:05:53,480 --> 01:05:56,840 know, doing something with the ball. He's not a standstill shooter, although 1030 01:05:56,840 --> 01:06:00,519 he's gotten better as a shooter obviously, Why haven't the Kicks mess around with 1031 01:06:00,599 --> 01:06:02,599 no point guard, just you know, get a couple more, get another 1032 01:06:02,639 --> 01:06:06,039 wing out there that can defend, even if it's Nilakina, I mean, 1033 01:06:06,039 --> 01:06:12,960 because he's not really a point guard. He's whatever, you he's everything and 1034 01:06:13,039 --> 01:06:17,079 more. I just don't understand why they haven't gone away from a conventional point 1035 01:06:17,119 --> 01:06:21,480 guard because it seems like they got enough playmaking in sort of unconventional ways. 1036 01:06:21,840 --> 01:06:26,960 And I also wonder this there's no staff behind this. But if you pull 1037 01:06:27,360 --> 01:06:30,480 Alfred Peyton and put in Frank Jelokina, but put into Alc Berk's right. 1038 01:06:30,519 --> 01:06:32,920 But if you put in let's say, Frank Gilokina, someone who's not gonna 1039 01:06:32,920 --> 01:06:35,480 get into the offense, does it force Because I do r J. Bart's 1040 01:06:35,559 --> 01:06:39,239 really good, especially when he puts more pressure on the rim, and he's 1041 01:06:39,280 --> 01:06:41,559 been more consistent about it. But there are games where I feel like if 1042 01:06:41,599 --> 01:06:44,280 he doesn't do it early, he just doesn't do it as much. By 1043 01:06:44,320 --> 01:06:47,599 not having another ball handler in that starting unit, does it kind of force 1044 01:06:47,679 --> 01:06:50,119 him to do that more? And maybe now's not the time to test it 1045 01:06:50,119 --> 01:06:53,880 out, But if the alternative is playing Alfred Peyton, then yeah, now 1046 01:06:53,880 --> 01:06:56,360 would be the time to test it out. My official pick here, though 1047 01:06:56,559 --> 01:06:58,920 I have Hunters the X factor for the Hawks. By the way, I 1048 01:06:58,960 --> 01:07:01,639 do think it could be bogged down if you're looking at who do you need 1049 01:07:01,679 --> 01:07:05,280 to be the second best offensive player to win? If Trey Young's floaters aren't 1050 01:07:05,280 --> 01:07:10,239 falling because of the Knicks contest, I guess you could throw gallow in there 1051 01:07:10,239 --> 01:07:12,079 too if you really wanted to. But Hunter just what he's gonna have to 1052 01:07:12,119 --> 01:07:15,199 do defensively and they're gonna need him to do stuff offensively as well. I'm 1053 01:07:15,239 --> 01:07:18,920 going Hawks in seven here. I wanted to pick my heart wants Nixon seven, 1054 01:07:19,440 --> 01:07:23,679 but the math here just doesn't keep working out, and I don't if 1055 01:07:23,679 --> 01:07:26,519 you told me that Tims wasn't gonna play Alfred Peyton, I'm gonna tell you 1056 01:07:26,599 --> 01:07:29,000 right now. I picked the Nixon seven and the fact that I can't get 1057 01:07:29,000 --> 01:07:31,280 if so we can save it. Maybe I'll change it after the opening tip 1058 01:07:31,599 --> 01:07:35,119 of Game one, if Alfred Payton is not on the court with eleven minutes 1059 01:07:35,199 --> 01:07:40,400 left in the first quarter, I will pivot to the Nixon seven. It's 1060 01:07:40,480 --> 01:07:43,519 very unsatisfying that I also picked the Hawks in seven, and there was like 1061 01:07:43,559 --> 01:07:47,280 a throw my hands up pick because obviously we've kind of explained why who the 1062 01:07:47,280 --> 01:07:54,840 fuck knows what's gonna happen in this series. But yeah, it's really phenomenal 1063 01:07:54,920 --> 01:07:57,840 to know that a series is going to swing on Alfred Payton and not in 1064 01:07:57,880 --> 01:08:00,599 a good way or Frankie Lakina in a great way. Right, That's that 1065 01:08:00,599 --> 01:08:06,559 would be a good one. Suns Lakers inherently interesting because the seventh seed is 1066 01:08:06,599 --> 01:08:11,760 favored in this one, which makes sense Lebron and a D versus Phoenix, 1067 01:08:11,840 --> 01:08:15,039 What do you think about this one? So if you could see my sheet 1068 01:08:15,159 --> 01:08:17,600 that I have, I could show it to you, but the listeners wouldn't 1069 01:08:17,600 --> 01:08:20,399 be able to tell where I've tried to decide who's going to win the series, 1070 01:08:20,439 --> 01:08:25,239 and in how many games there's like six or seven things crossed out. 1071 01:08:27,000 --> 01:08:31,039 It's it's yeah, I just it's I don't even even as we speak right 1072 01:08:31,079 --> 01:08:33,439 now, I don't know who I'm gonna pick to win the series. I 1073 01:08:33,520 --> 01:08:38,279 maybe I'll arrive at it at some point in the next fifteen minutes. So 1074 01:08:38,479 --> 01:08:44,439 it's such a it's if Lebron, this is so like you could get this 1075 01:08:44,439 --> 01:08:47,000 this take anywhere. If Lebron and a D are healthy, which they did 1076 01:08:47,000 --> 01:08:49,960 not appear to be against the Warriors in the first round of the play and 1077 01:08:50,479 --> 01:08:54,840 then I would pick them to beat the Suns. I would pick them to 1078 01:08:54,880 --> 01:09:00,479 beat everybody and win the world championship of the sport of basketball. I don't 1079 01:09:00,560 --> 01:09:05,159 know if they are healthy. I don't think I don't think that they're healthy, 1080 01:09:05,199 --> 01:09:10,159 and so I think not only you know, does that change the whole 1081 01:09:10,199 --> 01:09:13,640 West outlook. I think the Suns are gonna I think the Suns are gonna 1082 01:09:13,640 --> 01:09:17,600 win this series. And I think they're just they're so solid they you know, 1083 01:09:17,760 --> 01:09:20,680 the things that give me concerns. I think DeAndre Atan is going to 1084 01:09:20,760 --> 01:09:25,720 be tested. I'm not sure he's going to pass that test. He's become 1085 01:09:25,760 --> 01:09:30,600 adequate defensively, he's he's gonna be asked to handle. I mean, if 1086 01:09:30,600 --> 01:09:32,479 it's if he's got a guard Davis when the Lakers get serious and play him 1087 01:09:32,479 --> 01:09:36,279 at the five, like that's that is tough. I don't know who's suited 1088 01:09:36,319 --> 01:09:41,920 for that again, assuming Davis is healthy. But then other than that, 1089 01:09:42,000 --> 01:09:44,359 like, I don't know where you're finding the weaknesses and the Suns. We 1090 01:09:44,439 --> 01:09:46,199 talked about this a little bit a couple of weeks ago. I don't know 1091 01:09:46,199 --> 01:09:50,239 where the exploitable issues are for Phoenix. You know, Chris Paul thirty six, 1092 01:09:50,520 --> 01:09:55,199 he's broken down in playoffs before. Maybe that's your that's your window if 1093 01:09:55,199 --> 01:09:58,840 you're the Lakers, or that's what makes the Suns vulnerable. But other than 1094 01:09:58,880 --> 01:10:02,800 that, yeah, Phoenix is really good and I don't see the weak point 1095 01:10:02,840 --> 01:10:06,479 that you'd normally point to as as as a concern. You also point out 1096 01:10:06,520 --> 01:10:11,319 the last time we podcasted the fact that Devin Booker and Chris Paul want to 1097 01:10:11,560 --> 01:10:14,319 get to snake to the midrange, whatever they want to do that might help 1098 01:10:14,359 --> 01:10:16,359 them in this series. I think that I have sons in seven, so 1099 01:10:16,359 --> 01:10:19,479 we'll go right off the bat there. And I've pained over this one. 1100 01:10:19,960 --> 01:10:25,119 I the fact that Lebron just looked off against the Warriors. Anthony Davis looked 1101 01:10:25,199 --> 01:10:29,680 off in the first half. I'm very concerned about the play offensively of their 1102 01:10:29,680 --> 01:10:32,439 teammates. We were concerned last year, but this is different from the bubble 1103 01:10:32,560 --> 01:10:36,159 because there's going to be they'll be fans in Phoenix. I'm not I don't 1104 01:10:36,159 --> 01:10:40,319 want to skew too much in that direction. But Dennis Shouter now has three 1105 01:10:40,359 --> 01:10:44,239 games under his belt since coming back from COVID. That's we can't just assume 1106 01:10:44,239 --> 01:10:46,079 that he's going to be good in those minutes where they ask him to either 1107 01:10:46,680 --> 01:10:48,840 run the offense without Lebron on the court, or if he just has the 1108 01:10:48,840 --> 01:10:51,640 ball in his hands with Lebron up like they've been touching go for a good 1109 01:10:51,640 --> 01:10:56,399 portion of this year. Can you get a good and high volume night from 1110 01:10:56,439 --> 01:10:58,319 Kyle Kuzma. A lot of the times it feels like it's one or the 1111 01:10:58,319 --> 01:11:01,439 other high volume, not a fish efficient, but not high volume. I 1112 01:11:01,479 --> 01:11:04,560 don't feel like we can just default too like last season. Oh they're gonna 1113 01:11:04,600 --> 01:11:06,960 take and make enough threes like they did in the postseason. I just don't 1114 01:11:08,000 --> 01:11:12,760 think that flies here. Their defense is absolutely harrowing, though we watched what 1115 01:11:12,800 --> 01:11:16,079 they were able to do to the Warriors. But I also wonder Phoenix is 1116 01:11:16,439 --> 01:11:20,960 better structured, better suited to navigate that. Who are you You're putting Caruso 1117 01:11:21,239 --> 01:11:26,399 on Booker or Chris Paul? What are you doing with the other it's Contavious 1118 01:11:26,439 --> 01:11:29,760 Caldwell, Pope. If it's Dennis Shrewder, they're in trouble because we saw 1119 01:11:29,840 --> 01:11:34,039 him get burned in the Warriors game. At points, the Sun's like that's 1120 01:11:34,039 --> 01:11:36,640 a real issue, just like they're gonna have problems defending the Lakers two best 1121 01:11:36,680 --> 01:11:40,880 players. I don't think the Lakers, despite all their and their defense is 1122 01:11:40,880 --> 01:11:44,560 credible. It was first in the league without Lebron and Ad so I'm not 1123 01:11:44,600 --> 01:11:47,960 trying to downplay that. But the consistency those two play with and the decisions 1124 01:11:48,000 --> 01:11:51,359 both Booker and Chris Paul make if they are double teamed, and Bookers double 1125 01:11:51,399 --> 01:11:56,159 teamed more often than Chris Paul. They're just so used to that now and 1126 01:11:56,159 --> 01:11:59,079 they're gonna make the right play and I trust their supporting cast. If it's 1127 01:11:59,079 --> 01:12:01,680 a mcal Bridges need him to take a three, or attack a clothes app 1128 01:12:01,800 --> 01:12:04,760 or cut to the basket, he can do that. Cam Johnson has given 1129 01:12:04,800 --> 01:12:09,239 them good minutes. My biggest concern here, and it's not the lack of 1130 01:12:09,279 --> 01:12:13,960 experience outside Chris Paul and Jay Crowder is the center rotation because the Dario Stars 1131 01:12:13,960 --> 01:12:16,359 at the five minutes statistically have been great. That came against a lot of 1132 01:12:16,399 --> 01:12:19,800 second units. He was. There was a stretch where he was closing games 1133 01:12:19,800 --> 01:12:24,159 over Deandreatan that since passed and Stargs just isn't playing as much. It feels 1134 01:12:24,199 --> 01:12:29,319 like defenses, or excuse me, offensive offenses have figured out how to attack 1135 01:12:29,680 --> 01:12:34,079 those units. They can't. They can't afford eight and to disappear like he 1136 01:12:34,119 --> 01:12:36,159 has, and it can happen at either end of the floor. I think 1137 01:12:36,159 --> 01:12:40,800 he's more likely to get out played off the floor offensively than defensively. I 1138 01:12:40,800 --> 01:12:44,359 don't actually mind him having to go up against Anthony Davis, especially if Jay 1139 01:12:44,439 --> 01:12:46,399 Crowder is also on the court. What I do think helps the Suns, 1140 01:12:46,439 --> 01:12:49,760 and you can tell me if I'm crazy here bringing in Tory Craig all of 1141 01:12:49,800 --> 01:12:54,199 a sudden, there's this situation where between Tory Craig with Cal Bridges, Jay 1142 01:12:54,199 --> 01:12:58,840 Crowder, you can get creative with how you're going app after Lebron James and 1143 01:12:58,880 --> 01:13:00,840 Anthony Davis, I think, and so that could end up being big for 1144 01:13:00,880 --> 01:13:05,159 them. If Lebron's ankle wasn't in question, and if Davis hadn't sort of 1145 01:13:05,159 --> 01:13:09,079 been all over the place a lot this year, even coming back from the 1146 01:13:09,079 --> 01:13:11,680 injury, I would be picking the Lakers. I want to make that clear. 1147 01:13:12,000 --> 01:13:15,479 But they're not healthy. They're supporting their third most important player isn't healthy 1148 01:13:15,560 --> 01:13:18,279 and has been all over the place himself. Sons and seven feels like the 1149 01:13:18,399 --> 01:13:23,159 right pick here. And my final thing to wrap up would be and obviously 1150 01:13:23,159 --> 01:13:25,920 a few have X factors. I'm just gonna piggyback off of those, but 1151 01:13:25,960 --> 01:13:29,479 I think Jay Crowder is my ex factor for Phoenix. Will they consider doing 1152 01:13:29,520 --> 01:13:31,720 like the Jay Crowder Tory Craig front court where they just don't have a center. 1153 01:13:31,800 --> 01:13:34,600 If Ayton's getting cooked enough and if it's Davis at the five, you 1154 01:13:34,640 --> 01:13:38,479 don't do that if it's Gasol and Davis, but that's something I'm just gonna 1155 01:13:38,479 --> 01:13:41,399 look at. But Jay Crowder has been huge defensively for them all year. 1156 01:13:41,600 --> 01:13:44,760 The Lakers X factor for me has to be Dennis Shrewder because they need him 1157 01:13:44,800 --> 01:13:48,079 to be able to generate his own shots put pressure on the basket. It's 1158 01:13:48,119 --> 01:13:50,560 not and again, it's not just about the minutes Lebron is off the court, 1159 01:13:50,600 --> 01:13:53,920 of which there will be very few. It's the minutes that he's on 1160 01:13:53,960 --> 01:13:58,199 the court too, and you don't necessarily have him on the ball. Yeah, 1161 01:13:58,279 --> 01:14:02,119 it's tough, as you were about Crowder, you know, I you 1162 01:14:02,159 --> 01:14:05,560 know, there's nobody great for Lebron, but if Lebron is diminished, then 1163 01:14:05,680 --> 01:14:11,079 Crowder's pretty I'm pretty good with Crowder there. And then the other thing that 1164 01:14:11,119 --> 01:14:15,680 does is Bridges is going to guard someone that is not qualified to be guarded 1165 01:14:15,720 --> 01:14:20,039 by Michail Bridges, and he is going to shut that guy down and be 1166 01:14:20,119 --> 01:14:25,479 all over the place in the passing lanes. And so I think just macrou 1167 01:14:26,319 --> 01:14:30,119 the Lakers are if the if the Lakers lose this series, which I think 1168 01:14:30,119 --> 01:14:31,880 they will, I think I'm gonna go with you and say sons in seven 1169 01:14:31,960 --> 01:14:34,640 because I can't. I can't do it in six because that means they'd have 1170 01:14:34,680 --> 01:14:38,640 to win it in LA And I can't do it in five because that's not 1171 01:14:38,720 --> 01:14:42,760 enough respect for James and Davis, so seven. But I just think that, 1172 01:14:43,359 --> 01:14:49,680 like I just I just don't know where the Lakers are going to be 1173 01:14:49,720 --> 01:14:55,359 able to consistently succeed on offense. If James or Davis, I mean, 1174 01:14:55,439 --> 01:14:59,159 and is obviously they have no chance if both of them are not not dominant 1175 01:14:59,199 --> 01:15:01,239 offensively, but if one or the other, because I don't trust Shrewder at 1176 01:15:01,239 --> 01:15:05,319 all. I don't like Ksep might hit some shots, Kuzuma, I don't 1177 01:15:05,319 --> 01:15:10,239 trust Wes Matthews, I don't trust to play significant minutes in matter like they're 1178 01:15:10,399 --> 01:15:12,520 they're just not gonna be able to score. I feel like I've said that 1179 01:15:12,560 --> 01:15:17,319 about several teams, but it's it's an acute issue in this series because it's 1180 01:15:17,359 --> 01:15:20,680 just the Suns I think are going to score. I think they have too 1181 01:15:20,720 --> 01:15:25,520 many ways to get that done, even it's even against the defense as good 1182 01:15:25,520 --> 01:15:29,359 as the Lakers. I just don't know how. Again, if Lebron and 1183 01:15:29,399 --> 01:15:32,439 Ad are magically healthy, erase everything I just said. And I think the 1184 01:15:32,520 --> 01:15:35,720 Lakers win the series, but as it stands now, I think it's gonna 1185 01:15:35,720 --> 01:15:40,880 be really hard for them to compete offensively. Yeah, having Jay Crowder on 1186 01:15:40,960 --> 01:15:44,560 Lebron with I guess eight non Davis, and if you're able to use Tory 1187 01:15:44,640 --> 01:15:47,159 Craig and or mckillbridges as the helpers because of who they're coming off of for 1188 01:15:47,239 --> 01:15:51,479 Phoenix. I also think depending on how the Lakers mirror minutes with who's ever 1189 01:15:51,560 --> 01:15:56,159 guarding Chris Paul or let's say it's let's say it's Chris Paul, are they 1190 01:15:56,199 --> 01:16:00,079 pulling Alex Caruso when Chris Paul sits? And then the minutes that Devin Book 1191 01:16:00,159 --> 01:16:02,920 and Cameron Payne played together they might be few and far between. They might 1192 01:16:03,279 --> 01:16:06,960 be able to put real pressure on the Lakers defense in those situations then, 1193 01:16:08,279 --> 01:16:10,960 so camp Payne could be another X factor here. He's I'll say this, 1194 01:16:11,079 --> 01:16:14,520 I trust Campaign coming into this series more than I do Dennis Shrewder. I 1195 01:16:14,600 --> 01:16:16,920 was just gonna say, I think I'd rather have Pain than Shrewder just in 1196 01:16:16,960 --> 01:16:21,119 a vacuum for what he does. I just say, Atan is my X 1197 01:16:21,159 --> 01:16:26,239 factor for Phoenix and for the Lakers. You can't pick James or Davis. 1198 01:16:26,279 --> 01:16:29,640 So I guess I'll probably just go Kuzma because maybe that's a way that you 1199 01:16:29,680 --> 01:16:31,319 get you know, you get somebody hot. He makes some shots and that 1200 01:16:31,319 --> 01:16:34,239 wins in the game. I don't know, but that's pretty blue when Kuzma 1201 01:16:34,279 --> 01:16:36,479 is your X factor, right, I mean maybe he sees time running up 1202 01:16:36,520 --> 01:16:40,880 against Book defensively, too, which is that makes him huge? Grant, 1203 01:16:40,960 --> 01:16:43,119 this was great as always. Thank you for giving me so much of your 1204 01:16:43,159 --> 01:16:45,560 time. I did not expect both of us to have the Suns beating the 1205 01:16:45,640 --> 01:16:48,119 Lakers, though. Maybe that's going to be a more popular pick than I 1206 01:16:48,119 --> 01:16:53,199 thought. I thought Sons in seven was the saucy selection, but perhaps it's 1207 01:16:53,239 --> 01:16:57,760 not. Everyone follow Grant on Twitter if you're not already at GT Underscore. 1208 01:16:57,800 --> 01:17:00,920 Hughes does a fantastic job covering the NBA at all levels for Bleacher Report. 1209 01:17:01,199 --> 01:17:05,479 Until next time, leave it the shout out to the one the only going 1210 01:17:05,520 --> 01:17:10,560 to shift the tenor of the entire Hawks Knick series, Frankielkina