This podcast episode is brought to you by Coors Light. These days, everything
is go, go go. It's NonStop hustle all the time. Work,
friends, family expect you to be on twenty four seven. Well, sometimes
you just need to reach for a Coors Light because it's made to chill.
Coors Light is cold loggered, cold filtered, and cold package. It's as
crisp and refreshing as the Colorado Rockies. He's literally made to chill. Coors
Light is the one I choose when I need to unwind. So when you
want to hit reset, reach for the beer that's made to chill. Get
Coors Light and the new look delivered straight to your door with drizzling or INSTATCRT
Celebrate responsibly. Coors Brewing Company, Golden Colorado. What is krack Alakin?
Hardwood knocks the listeners. I am Dan for Valley, coming at you without
my fantastic co host Adam Bromo, but I do come bearing the third podcast
of the week, and one of my very good friends, colleagues and just
aspect acculate writer in general, has agreed to join me for this third podcast
of the week. Grant Hughes covers the NBA fantabulously, I might add for
Bleacher Report follow him on Twitter at GT Underscore Hughes. We are going to
analyze and predict every single damn MBA first round playoff series, real original stuff.
I'm sure no other podcast or MBA media outlet is doing that. So
you're welcome in advance. First and foremost, though, Grant, how the
hell are you? I am fantastic, fantabulous like you said, and very
happy to be speaking to you about uh some playoff games. This last level
run up part of the regular season featured some some clandestine and not so clandestine
tanking and all that kind of stuff. We don't have to worry about it
anymore. I'm ready to talk about games that are going to count for realsies.
We are for realsies. That's the new Yes, that's I'm ready for
it too. I don't know what to do with the play in tournament though
there's still one game left, but as we record this, Warriors and Grizzlies.
But like all the numbers, but do they just go into the void?
Is there? We're going to have a separate play in section for them
because they're not postseason, they're not regular season, they're just the play in.
Yeah, why aren't they just playoff numbers? Like how I don't understand.
I think Van Gundy might have said this on the broadcast for Warriors Lakers,
I think, or something to this effect. But it's like they aren't
regular season numbers because it's not really fair to the teams that didn't play the
extra games. They're just their playoff will just put them in the playoff numbers.
Who cares? What's so weird to have to disappear. My counter to
that would be if the NBA has enough teams making the playoffs already, and
now if you're gonna have twenty each year that have postseason stats. In my
mind, I'm just like, what are we doing? That seems too inclusive.
I don't know. This is the only problem with the play in In
my eyes, everything else about it is perfect. I don't think they should
count. They should go into the void, never to be spoken of again,
Like it's not on a player's resume. You had a fight to get
into the playoffs. Still, I would lean more towards putting them in the
regular season though, But that's just makes you know, Can I tell you?
Can I give you my honest answer? Dan, Please, actually,
can you lie to me? I like it. At least lie to me
when we get to the Knicks Hawks series. Please perfect, I'll save it
for that. Oh no, but can you be honest with me? You're
free to be honest. Now, what was to be your honest take?
I was gonna I was gonna be glib and say I don't care about the
stats. But the moment has passed. Now it's not if it was gonna
be funny at all, it's definitely not now, so we can move on.
So you have a burner that says I test Twitter with with one of
those eyes looking at me. I got it exactly. I'm you have given
me carte blanche to lead us through this, so I'm going to take us
through my least interesting playoff series to what I deemed the most interesting. And
I didn't order these beforehand. I did a ton of research on the series,
but I'm ordering them right off the cuff. As to what I'm interested
in, my one that I don't know. I don't care about it because
I'm gonna watch everything, but Sixers and Wizards is kind of kind of decidedly
not interesting to me, unless you still think the rush Joel and Bead Beef
will rehash, but what is the biggest thing you're watching for, biggest impression
of this matchup? Knowing that you've only had well, let's give the Wizards
some credits. They annihilated the Pacers, so you've been thinking about it for
more than two minutes, but in the in eight minutes you've been thinking about
it. Well, I assuming that that would be the matchup when I was
putting notes together for this earlier today, I do only have one note on
it, and it's the words are total destruction and it's filling in four and
like, my main thing is, you know, the it's an oversimplification,
but the Wizards are a two man operation. And both those guys, I
mean, you know, looked better tonight, but I would say both are
somewhat compromised. It's unclear to me what's going on with Westbrook. I don't
know if they said anything during the broadcast tonight when I was sort of checked
out after halftime. But he doesn't look healthy, and he looked just awful
in the first first game. Bale's hamstring is a thing, But then the
real issue to me is that you Ben Simmons to guard one of them or
both, or whoever the Sixers need him to guard. And then you have
tieble to you know, for the twenty ish minutes he's gonna play to just
cause problems. I just don't see a way for one the Wizards to score
consistently because the within bead in the paint, that's that's not an option in
Westbrook's not gonna play bullyball like he did against the Pacers a little bit tonight.
And so I just don't know where the points come from. And then
really on the other end, like Daniel Gafford's a nice story and Robin Lopez
is a you know, a stalwart guy in the middle. But and Bed's
just gonna eat everybody up. You know, it's it's it's a one versus
eight. Like I don't I don't know where the intrigue really is beyond how
are the Wizards two best players going to get anything going. I am with
everything you said there. If I was to play Devil's advocate, where can
Washington maybe frustrate Philly? I do wonder if having Daniel Gafford and Robin Lopez
too, I think you you probably have to mirror Robin Lopez is minutes with
Joel embiad or pretty closely right, that's the I know Daniel Gaffer has been
great, but I think you'd prefer Lopez on Embiid. I feel like those
two can at least provide a fact simile of life's a little bit difficult on
Emid, but just given what he's done on the perimeter, then it's sort
of on the lines of, okay, how much does that not work out?
I even tried to look at it from the view of Philly's half court
offense, because Washington has defended better defensively over the past two months or whatever
it's been, but the Sixers are and when I looked this up, I
was I knew it was good, but I was surprised was this high.
They're half court offense when Simmons and Embide are on the court this season the
ninety second percentile of efficiency, which is wild, and I sort of debunked
what my counter my attempted counterpoint would be, Okay, if you can bother
them down a little bit, maybe that gives you a chance. I think
this the focus that's been paid to ken Philly score in the situations that matter
most. There's been too much attention actually paid to it because they can.
And even if Simmons concerns you, which I think you know, fair and
Bead has been on another level this year with shop making from the perimeter.
To say that they don't have that conventional crunch time weapon, it's at once
true but also false because you don't need him with the way that Joel Embid
is playing right now. Yeah, I think that's that's really interesting big picture
for the Sixers because like if yeah, like you said, if you were
to have isolated what's your number one? I probably did this at some point
this year. I just can't remember if you had to isolate what is what
is a concern that you know might come back to buy each team in a
playoff series and like, yeah, you know, the numbers are what they
are, but I think it would have been still fair to say, like,
how are the Sixers going to score in crunch time against the defense that
has seen them five games in a row or whatever it is and Ben Simmons
is on the floor, Like that's still to me is a legitimate concern even
though the numbers are good. But that's a huge deal if if that is
just no longer an issue because then you know, in terms of poking holes
in the Sixers, you're really just sort of left with well, Joel Embiid,
you know, can't stay healthy because which is just that's not even that's
an issue for an injury is a concern for every best player on every playoff
team. So that's a big deal. I would say that if the Sixers
don't sweep, it's a disappointment, and because the sort of Embiid health issue
is always going to sort of hang over the team. If you have to
mess around an extra game or two against the team you should have just stomped.
I think that's significant. So it does behoof the Sixers to just really,
you know, not mess around in this series. It's significant. But
it's also they're going to play the Hawks for the Knicks in the second rounds.
They don't have to worry about Milwaukee or Booklyn to the conference finals,
so they kind of can screw around without their being imminent payback if they had
to face one of those teams next, I would totally agree for Washington.
I don't want to dumple over of them. You have If Beale and Russell
Westbrook are right, that's a big ass what if at the moment they have
real talent at the top to where do they have two of the three best
players in this series? Depending on how you feel about Ben Simmons in a
vac might probably still say no, Bill might be the second best, or
that can be the single best player in the series. But I do think
both Russ and Bale are capable of being two of the three best players in
this series. That helps them a ton. I do think they can at
least get Philly's defense sort of moving, depending on how much they rely on
Garrison Matthews. I did wonder if it would help should the Sixers rely on
with these thiable more than they did during the regular season. Does that put
any extra pressure on their offense to where it gives Washington just some opportunities to
come out? But I even I filtered out the data, and this isn't
the end all bill, But like the Sixers half court offense with Simmons,
Thiable and Abide on the court eighty nine percentile of efficiency this year. And
so I find myself struggling to get concerns And I wanted to ask you if
you at an X factor for this series. I think mine would be for
the Sixers, I'd probably throw it us to buy as Harris just in case
Simmons can be. I don't know if he's too high profile, but if
he gets a little solved a little bit on offense, you're gonna need to
buyas Harris then to score a ton. And then for the Wizards, I
wanted is it Ruby Hatchma? Like is he gonna have the hardest defense workload
here? I guess you could say it's Robin Lopez or Len or Gafford are
depending on how obviously put the minutes against Joel Embiide, But they don't Who
is their best perimeter defender? Is it? Is it Esak Banga? Is
it Hatchmura? Is it Chandler Hutchinson? Like that's that's where we're at.
Oh, how Willett though? Is it is it him? I don't have
an answer for who their best perimeter defender is? I mean, like it's
yeah, that's that's a problem. I do agree with you on Harris though
we didn't even we didn't even mention him until just now, Like there's a
scenario where he wins the Sixers a game. You know he's he's not going
to be he's not in the conversation as the best three or four, you
know, third or fourth best player in the series. But if he has
like a thirty six point you know whatever, a thirty six point game,
and that wins the Sixers a game, you know, the Wizards. Again,
it's a one versus eight. So of course this is the case.
The Wizards don't have a luxury of their third option or whatever he is relative
to Simmons, but sort of an auxiliary player winning them a game. That's
just you know, that's just not on the table for them. What would
be your prediction for the series. I think it's a sweep. I think
it has to be six ers, and you know, if it's like five
is as long as it could possibly go in my imagination, especially because again
the bell hamstring is is if he's if Beal is compromised that at all or
significantly, I just don't I don't know where the points come from. Maybe
the X factors his hamstring, because if you haven't been waiting in the paint
for Russell Westbrook, you need everything that Bill does infinitely more. Yea,
I'm going six ers and five just because I think Beal, Russell Westbrook get
them at least a game, and there's maybe there's a game where Davis Burton's
goes supernova. So I just don't think it's going to be competitive. I
also don't think this next series is going to be very competitive. My second
choice would be the Celtics versus the Nets, that is, the two v
seven in the East. Thoughts, general impressions, key things to watch for
this one. So I think I don't know if I was talking to you
about this, but I think that Boston. I want Boston and Miami together
a little bit. And it's, you know something, They're not very much
alike, but I just in the sense that I believe in them more as
playoff teams in regular season teams. I believe in their coaching. I believe
in their versatility, their experience, like that whole thing. I think that's
worth something. And Tatum, you know, to a much greater degree than
even someone say like Beal, I think he's he has the ability to be
the best player on the floor in a game that also includes Durant and Harden
and Irving. He's not the best player in the series, but he can
have that game or two where they just can't do anything with him, and
it's not like the Nets have great defensive wing options I get. I don't
know whether it'll do with him, Bruce Brown maybe or someone I'm forgetting,
but I think I think the Nets will win that series. The hesitation I
have, in addition to the Tatum and liking Boston a little bit more than
maybe I should, is that I still, and this may be an anchoring
thing because I sort of have been hesitant to buy the Nets from the jump.
I thought, like you know, Steve Nash was in for just a
miserable ride as coach of this team. I felt bad for him. I've
been mostly wrong the whole way. You know, James Harden can't play a
different way, Yes he can. I was wrong about that. Durant is
going to be diminished. No he's not. I think my hesitancy to say
this is just a similar level of walkover as Philly Washington is that I still
just don't know. I don't know. I think that the Nets have the
potential to be absolutely dominant. There are a lot of statistical indicators that when
they're healthy and they have all their guys, they just are. But I
have I haven't seen it. I still just envision ways for this to go
wrong, whether that's Harden's hamstring acting acting up, whether that's Durant not making
it through the series, whether that's Irving going cold for whatever reason. There's
just there's just enough uncertainty about a team that's obviously super talent it for me
to think, and I mean, I'll I guess I can give you my
pick now. I think the Nets win it, but I think it could
go six. So I have a lot of faith in Boston and I'm still
just a little uncertain about the Nets. I guess this would be the team
that Boston matches up with well defensively better than people might expect without Jaylen Brown.
Just to have Marcus Smart and then Jason Tatum gives you two guys that
can go after two of the three stars in Brooklyn. I don't know what
is the answer for the third one is just who is like, you know,
Let's assume Tatum gets a ton of time on Durant. Let's make that
the assumption Marcus Smart probably toggles between James Harden and Kyrie. Do you do
you attach him to James Harden? And then but who's the third most important
defense? I just that's the problem. The math never works out when it
comes to defending Brooklyn. And let's not forget Joe Harris exists. He has
been just the quintessential superstar sory For the Nets, they haven't played a ton
of time together those four under three hundred possessions. Their offensive rating in that
span, though, is one twenty nine point two. The thing that also
worries me for Boston specifically is there's the element of how much does it matter
how well you match up defensively with Brooklyn by going among all high volume ISO
guys or medium volume isso guys? The Nets have three of the top ten
buy efficiency with Harden Irving and Kevin Durant. That's just so much firepower.
I don't know that I have the Nets coming out of the East right now.
My inclination would be no. My official pick because of right now for
the entire East would be no. This feels like a situation where to me
that they will steam roll Boston. I'd be a lot more intrigued by it
if they had Jalen Brown. They do have questions though defensively, just you
know, the small minutes they've played with their Big four or their their four
top guys, they've actually been fine defensively. Does that hold up? Who
is your five when it matters most? I think it'll be Jeff Green,
but you mentioned Bruce Brown. Nick Claxton is my X factor because maybe if
that's the wrong pick for this series, because which Boston big is going to
scare you? Maybe if they go with Grant Williams at the five and they
downsize, that makes you a little bit worried. But they switch so much
the nets person energy switched the second most among all defenses this year, and
I believe he's super important to that, more so than even a Jeff Green
or a Bruce Brown. Maybe that's for something in later series though, to
really be concerned about. My pick would be Brooklyn in four here, Oh
I think, I mean, are they Maybe they'll load manage their guys throughout
the series. I wouldn't put it past this team. There's I could easily
just go five. But when I'm this much in on Brooklyn and sort of
as low as I am on Boston, I think I need I'm just gonna
lean into the sweep, and you know Boston is going to have weaker points
on defense for Brooklyn to attack as well. Just how many times are they
gonna go after Evan Fournier a game and you can't take He's my X factor
for Boston. You need that other scorer who can both playoff others and generate
his own shot. Now that Jayon Brown isn't there, there's Kembo, there's
Jayson Tatum. But the Cells kind of had the issue with residual scoring to
begin with. It has to be having four day now, so how do
you can you take him off the floor if he's getting killed on defense?
This feels like the sweep opportunity in the first round to me, Yeah,
I think I think to your point that percent agree on Claxton, by the
way, like he's going to matter. I don't know if it'll be this
series, but but I think you know the best the best case scenario for
Boston is to play a team that plays a lot of drop coverage with a
conventional big because then maybe in addition to Tatum, you get some good Kemba
Walker games where he hits five or six threes off the dribble. That's not
I don't think unless for some reason the Nets abandoned all of their switching,
I think they'll probably switch more and play DeAndre Jordan a lot and he drops.
It's gonna be really hard for Walker to get going, especially like he's
just I don't know, he's looked okay in spurts, but he's just he's
not someone that's gonna break down a mismatch. And if the nets if the
mismatch quote unquote is Bruce Brown as you're sort of pseudo center switching out,
then that's just a noun. That's that's a tough one for him. Yeah,
I don't know. I'm going on faith, but but I again,
I wouldn't. It wouldn't shock me if then let's have the talent to just
if they blew any of these teams out and just walked over him and four,
you would kind of look back and say, well, yeah they have
Durant, Harden and Irving. Of course they did. But I'm holding out
some faith that Brad Stevens will will do something magical and Tatum will get another
you know, throw a fifty five pointer in there for a game or two.
There's your impression change if Robert, if Robin, if Robert Williams isn't
able to play, not really, because I don't think this is a series
for him. You know. You know what I do wish is if that
is the Daniel Tyson was still on the Celtics. He makes a lot more
sense in a series like this than than kind of your conventional shop. He
makes more sense on the Celtics than has luxury tax evading fodder. A little
bit, a little bit that surprises me. So you you had nets and
six, I have Nets and four. I don't think this is the series
that you're going to be expecting me to go to next. I just can't
drum up the level of interest in it. I think other people are going
to have. And I'm also assuming that we get Warriors Jazz, which will
intrigue me more than this one. I have the four v five matchup in
the West of Clippers Mavericks. I know people want to sort of build it
up because of what it was last year, especially before the Kristaps Porzingis injury.
I think the Clippers are just I want to hear your thoughts first,
but I just think they're I can't get a hold on them and I don't
trust them. And it's not just because of what we saw last season.
It's just even this season whenever you're ready to believe in them, something happens
in crunch time where the defense gets weird or the shot making is bizarre.
I think they're just so much better than the Mavericks, and I've been you
know, they are fifth in the West, So give the Mavericks credit.
I've just been so low on the Mavericks relative to the consensus because they are
Luca don Chich and I don't you know, Jalen Brunson, Tim Hardaway,
junior Fringe six Man of the Year candidate's great grand wonderful. They just don't
have the number two guy. They don't have that secondary shock creator. Yeah,
strong agree. I think a couple of things like the one man operation
is a really tough thing to pull off in the playoffs, and and very
few teams are you know, you might site say the Blazers as well.
If Damian Lillard doesn't get off, that's a problem, but they have McCollum.
They have other ways to go. Unless you are a big Porzingis believer,
and I don't know why you would be really in a significant way after
the season. It's just Danchich and the Clippers have the wing side, the
big wings to at least just be in his way or make him beat you
with a bunch of stepbacks. To think, I mean, it's the Clippers
are thirty two and eleven in games that George and Leonard both played, plus
seventeen point five in the minutes with them on the floor together. I mean,
that will be a significant portion of all of these games that they will
have both of them out there. And it's not like they, you know,
the rotation falls off a cliff on guys six through nine on that team.
There's gonna be bodies that they can, you know, really credibly put
out there and not give give those that massive narrating advantage back. I think
I think just Dallas is a little worse than it was last year, and
I think I don't think it's crazy to say the Clippers are at least as
good as they were last year. And that's assuming they've they're going to tighten
up in a good way and sort of not allow whatever all that was last
year that that did them in. I do think if you're looking for ways
to poke holes and the Clippers, you just you gotta go with the well,
they it's all old cliche stuff. Well, they really depend on making
jumpers. But I think that's that's not even a valid criticism really anymore,
because they have the guys that just make jumpers, and it's not like,
yeah, I don't know, it's it's really hard for me to come up
with semi defensible reasons to not think this is a pretty short series for the
Clippers. Yeah, that would be for the Mavericks looking through at the Clippers
on what could happen that would help Dallas. There's high variants in their shot
selection, for sure, but they've since that since Abaca was injured, they
getting to the rim a ton more, probably because they've been starting Zuobots and
they have someone in Kawhi Leonard who doesn't need to get to the rim to
draw fouls, which is absolutely huge for them. There is that higher variance
there though, and maybe that's how that's the path for Dallas to get lucky,
or that's maybe they win one of two games to open up and that
starts something rolling. I also wonder Zubots is fantastic. I don't think this
will happen, but does he get not played off the floor but doesn't become
problematic having him on the court instead of Surgebak. If Christops Porzingis is the
other big just because of where Porzingis is going to camp out, he's not
going to try, or at least they shouldn't. Porzingis has been better on
post ups this year, but he shouldn't be trying to post up Zobots.
And I know Zubots is quick, but there's still the element of it's not
you're not worried about Christops wors think is necessarily taking him off the dribble.
He's just gonna stand far enough behind the three point line where it take zu
Bots a lot of outside, a lot of the interior actions. That would
be my concern. I can't muster up anything else though for this, and
I think my pick here would be just it would be Clippers in five.
I'm trying to talk myself into six, but I'm just like I can't get
there. My X factors really quickly would be I think it's Jalen Brunson for
Dallas. I feel like there has to be more Dons brunts in minutes because
the Clippers will be able to throw the type of bo Marcus Morris did a
pretty good job on Luka dont in the playoffs last year. If they can
get the ball out of his hands, they need another creator. It's Tim
Hardaway Junior or Jalen Brunton, I guess are your best options. And then
for the Clippers, it's kind of tough to pin down an X factor for
them. I might just say, because of how reliant they are on three
point volume, I'll default to Marcus Morris. He'll get a ton of reps
against Luka Dontas defensively, and then you're gonna rely a bunch on on his
own three point volume. But I think you could single out any one of
their non stars. This is zoobots and his ability to match up with Kris
stops Porzingis Is it just Sergebaka in general to stretch the floor not necessarily hurt
your defense in certain situations? You could go, is it Terrence Man because
he's actually gonna play? Is that Patrick Beverley Kenn he stay healthy. I
feel like you could go any one of eighty different ways with the Clippers X
factors. Yeah, I think big picture Serge Ibaka might be. It's hard
to there are five is also like Clippers, and five is also my pick
for this series. But I think Abaca is a good guy to kind of
keep an eye on to see sort of how he's looking, because you know,
I think down the line, the Clippers are definitely gonna look for Marcus
Morris is going to play significant minutes at center for them. I think,
you know, just in in certain series, but you don't want to try
to really live that way. And so because Zubots is just zu Bots is
good at what he does, but he's limited, And the idea of Abaca
made incredibly perfect sense, you know, from the moment they signed him as
the guy who could sort of be the in between, the in between the
versions of those two guys who can shoot it a little bit and you don't
lose too much rim to rim protection as long as he's kind of right there.
He's not supermobile anymore. But I think he's someone I'm going to keep
an eye on to kind of see what what version of Abaca we've got,
because he wasn't he wasn't great this year, and he missed, you know,
a fair amount of time. So I don't know if he's the X
factor in this series. I don't know if there is such a thing as
an X factor for the Clippers in this series. I guess I would just
want to shout out Maxi Kleiba for a Dallas because I like that guy and
I hope he makes a difference. But it's hard to see how much why
he would matter in this unless they put him on Kawhi again and he's the
Kawhi stopper. Well, the other thing is too if they If the Clippers
do de sign a downside downsize in this series with Morse at the five minutes,
you probably feel better about. Okay, Kleiba as the five and take
Porzingis off. That's something you at least consider, which would increase the importance
of Kleiba. And he moves really well defensively, as you sort of already
alluded to. Yeah, look you go. Nicholas Betune, by the way,
for the Clippers as well. I'm not sure if this. I don't
think this will shock you, but it is shocking given the circumstances under which
he left Charlotte, how bad he was, and then went to La he
led the Clippers and minutes played this season. That that does absolutely shock me.
I can't that's incredible. I had no idea he beat out Paul George
by and he did this in granted thirteen more appearances, but being available this
season in sixty seven to seventy two games for him is also to forget about
the truncated schedule for him. It's right he beat out Paul George by fourteen
total minutes on the year. Incredible, good for him. I want this
series. We both had Clippers in five on that one. Correct. Yeah.
I want this series to be higher, I really do. But it's
not. We don't know that it's going to be to exist yet. And
I also think we need to show the Jazz the appropriate amount of respect by
ranking it lower. I don't want to apply that. I think the Warriors
or the Grizzlies could beat Utah, I just one percent. Don't think it's
going to happen. I think it's going to be Golden State in Utah.
But let's spend a few seconds on Memphis in Utah. Is there a path
to that just becoming a series at all? I think a lot. A
lot will depend on. Like if you had to narrow it down to one
stat I would almost want it to be how many threes per game is Jaren
Jackson Junior gonna make? And if you told me it was like four or
four and a half. Then I think maybe the Grizzlies are interesting or sort
of in business a little bit. I would love it if he could play
center and just bring Gobert out of there, but that just hasn't proven to
be a tenable strategy so far. So Valanciunist will play a lot, and
I just Valentinist just he's really good at what he does, but he does
not give you any advantages against the team that has Rudy Gobert. So yeah,
I don't I don't see the path. I mean, especially if you
know the Grizzlies have a shooting game like they had on at the end of
the regular season against the Warriors, where John Moran is getting completely left alone
and his only avenue is to drive into the middle, which is where Rudy
Gobert is going to be. And I just don't know where. I don't
know how the Grizzlies score. I love I love the Grizzlies potential to defend
the Jazz pretty well. I love all their wins. Defenders. I think
they have size. I mean, Morant might get picked on a little bit,
but I just I don't know where I don't know where the Grizzlies find
the way to compete offensively with Utah, which you know their offense is pretty
darn good too, So yeah, I don't know. Even when you look
at how many good individual defenders they have, what is the tradeoff Winslow's role
would be. He might just be the X factor because can he gives you
a bunch of advantages defensively? Can you keep him on the floor offensively?
The fact that Jazz have Royce O'Neil, where this is the matchup if you're
looking at other teams later in the playoffs, how did the Jazz matchup defensively
with Wings, especially if it's a team that relies on jump shots, Because
then I do think that diminishes the importance at least a little bit of what
Rudy Gobert does. But you're, let's say, most dangerous offensive player is
either John morantor or maybe Dylan Brooks, or it's Jonas Valanciunis, three players
that Utah is built perfectly to defend. Between Royce O'Neil and Rudy Gobert.
Even look, Kyle Anderson has been great this year. You have Joe Ingles
for him, it's not. It's like just not a huge deal. Also,
the Grizzlies their nineteenth and frequency of the of the attempts that come out
the rim, that's gonna just drop because Golbert exists and they're first in short
mid range attempts, the frequency, the share of which their attempts come from
short float range or can't speak tonight, apparently, Gobert, I gotta RaSE
those two like, that's just that's a huge issue. And the fact that
they don't shoot enough threes or make enough of them. Maybe the volume gets
up. But like in the win over the Spurs, Jaren Jackson Junior,
two or four from three is great. Two makes and four attempts isn't gonna
cut it for Memphis offensively against the Jazz. And so if it is Jazz
Grizzlies, I want to go on the record of saying that would be the
other series in the first round i'd predict as a sweep. Yeah, I
would agree, I would agree with that. I just I mean, again,
it's Jaren Jackson would have to make a bunch of threes and just completely
and play center and just do do things that have not happened. So I
mean he's made threes. He's a great shooter. They got to figure out
how to leverage him more. But there's no evidence to suggest that that will
happen against Utah Golden State, though impressions of the how Utah and Golden State
might would will match up however you want to frame it. At this moment,
this podcast is gonna be a terrible Listen. Should Memphis beat Golden State?
Well, so, I should probably have said this earlier, but I've
put I'm putting zero stock in anything that happened in the regular season with respect
of these matchups. I shouldn't say zero, but almost no stock. So
I don't care about the fact that the Warriors beat the Jazz and Phoenix in
the span of a week, you know, towards the end of the regular
season. I think in theory, obviously, I think the Warriors give the
Jazz, will give the Jazz a much bigger problem than Memphis will. I
can't pick the Warriors to win that series for reasons. I think that we're
evident against the Lakers, where Curry has to be great, and sometimes even
when he's great, it's not enough. But I do think, you know,
look, if if if the Warriors are going to play high pick and
roll, and Draymond Green is gonna play a lot of center, and Rudy
Gobert has to come out, and then he doesn't want to come out.
There's a way for the Warriors to sort of tip things downhill offensively. It
may depend on Curry finding guys to make shots. It may defend depend on
Green being able to finish in four on threes, things that you're not super
comfortable with. But there are sort of ways. I can see the Warriors
getting some decent looks offensively, and the Warriors defense is really good. I
think that they can give Utah. They'll make Utah work, especially if Donovan
Mitchell is is you know whatever percentage below one hundred percent, he's going to
be coming off that ankle. I think there's a scenario where this series goes
six. That's gonna be my pick. I'm gonna pick the Jazz in six.
I just I just think the Warriors can make it interesting. But I'm
not really ready to go further than that. I don't know. I don't
know where you're at. Yeah, we're not. I one don't Maybe it
is being taught about and I'm just not seeing it, I feel like we're
not talking enough about the fact that Dono Mitchell hasn't played in a month and
is now just coming back. Does that at all make Utah easier to defend?
They have other shot makers when you look at Jordan Clarkson or shot takers
depending on the night. For Jordan Clarkson, I'm always a maker. Joe
Ingles buyon Bardanovitch, you might kindly miss a ton of time towards the end
of the regular season. I do think there's a path. I mean,
you outlined it of this becoming a series. The Draymond at the five stuff.
I don't know what that does. It could very easily backfire on Golden
State as well. If Rudy Gobert states in the court, I don't know
how you match up with that. Part of me also is like, well,
who's guarding Draymond Green for the Warriors for the Jazz. But then it
also kind of doesn't matter with the way that Green plays off, Like you
just look at how the Lakers defended him, didn't you know they doubled and
tripled off of him. They just didn't care about him. Let him take
wide open threes. You can use Gobert in that situation if you really just
want to so does it neutralize the threat of the Curry Draymond green pick and
roll at all. It's one of those situations where, because Golden State is
so good defensively and you're not going to have Conley or Mitchell presumably at full
strength, how disruptive Golden State could be if they give Jta. I was
surprised that he didn't play. I know he played twenty five plus minutes,
but he really wasn't on the court, like during the most important moments for
that Lakers game. I think he can help them there, having him and
Draymond Greene on the court, even Andrew Wiggins, like they could really gum
up things for Utah offensively. But then I'm also like, how do you
defend if you're Golden State go Bears roles. He's gotten a lot better at
spraying passes on them, and just in general, he's always had the the
power and quality finishing on the role like Cavan Looney Draymond greenl I don't are
they built to do anything like that. I think Steph wins them at least
a game on his own, and that's why I'm inclined to go Warriors in
six because if you know you're going to get a game, and that's what
I'm doing entering into this series on behalf of the Warriors. I don't think
the path to getting another one is all that outrageous looking at Utah's makeup,
given what we've mentioned about Mitchell and Conley, and I do think that Golden
State, maybe aside from Bears roles like they could really do give them some
issues. My two quick X factors would be, I think I'll pick him
for every single series that the Warriors are alive in, so just this one,
Jordan Poole, they need another guy who cannot just make the shots away
from Steman Curry, but who can also create them in the let's say six
to ten minutes. He's not on the floor, and Andrew Wiggins, he's
still too idle in the moments he plays. About Stephen Curry, I think
he's so important to this team. Defensively, He's shown that he can take
advantage of some of the wide open opportunities. He has not been the go
getter without Stephen Curry on the floor, So as a secondary creator alongside Staff
or in the minutes he's sitting. It's Jordan Pool for me. I think
it has to be Royce O'Neil for Utah, just because he's going to see
the line share of the time against deaf. But I think you have a
couple of different options there as well. Yeah, I think one thing,
I'll do a couple of X factors and sort of get to them in a
roundabout way. But I think specifically, I think we agree that defensively,
the Warriors can really can make this difficult. And that's large because the Jazz
have struggled consistently in the postseason against switching because they just they haven't had guys,
even Mitchell, that you know, that have consistently been able to break
down a defense and get consistently, you know, efficient opportunities to score.
And so if Mitchell and Conley are compromised, like now you're talking about boy
Jordan Clarkson's important to this offense and man like Joe Ingles has gotta you know,
do a lot more with the ball in his hands. And and it's
it gets tough because you know, even really even if if Conley or Mitchell
are fully healthy, the switches you're going to be generating and crunch time are
going to get you Toscano Anderson or Green on either of those guys, Like,
I don't know, that's that's that's not the worst set up, certainly
in Green's case for the Warriors. But that's why I kind of think Mitchell's
too easy to pick as the X factor for me. I think it's Conley,
and that's he's someone that I've kind of been. He seemed like a
key guy all year for that reason because he's going to get a lot of
centers switched on to him, I think, and he's going to need to
be able to make something happen. It'll be hard against the Warriors, who
I think will probably not play a conventional center as much as most teams.
But I think Conley's really going to matter for the Warriors, Like, yeah,
I mean, pool matters. He's probably their third most important player after
Kurry and Green, just because of what he's able to do as a shot
creator that they just don't have anywhere else. I don't know. I feel
like Wiggins is kind of an X factor because he has to be fully engaged
all the time on both ends and that just doesn't always happen. But if
he is then maybe this gets more interesting. I still I think are we
agreeing that it's a jazz and six. Yes, and it's almost by virtue
of only Stephen Curry and the defense that I'm willing to give the Warriors two
games. Yeah, pretty much. I agree. I'm wondering if this choice.
I don't think it's going to surprise you, but just going in order
as we're building up the interest the three v six matchup in the West between
the Nuggets and Blazers, I would be more. I'm still curious, and
I'm I think we're at the point where I don't think that there's going to
be a bad series. It was once we got past really Philly in Washington
and Celtics nets. I am genuinely intrigued by all these matchups. If Jamal
Murray was available, I would be far more inclined to boost this series up.
But thoughts, general impressions, X factors, takeaway things to watch anything
on this matchup. This is my first upset pick and I don't even like
the Blazers that much as which is the crazy thing. I just I think
that I like the matchup a little bit. With Yokich having to be out
on the floor involved in a lot of screen high screen action with Dame Lillard.
I think that's a problem for the Nuggets. I think both of these
defenses are not good, but the Blazers defense with their new lineup has actually
been okay. And I think Nurkicch is a pretty good guy to throw at
Yokich. I mean, if only because they're kind of familiar from playing together,
but also because he's just big and he's physical, and you know,
he's pretty close to as good as you're gonna do against your kitch. There's
no there's no answer for him. But yeah, I think I think Portland,
you know, has McCollum as a sort of a second option to score
that. You know, I guess the Nuggets ordered you know, Michael Porter
has been great, but man, they're thin on the wings after that.
And Fukundo Composito is he really is he really gonna bother either Lillard or McCollum.
So I think there's not going to be a lot of great defense played.
And I think the way that Portland goes into its offense with high screen
action for Lillard is really gonna be a problem for the Nuggets. So I
think I feel pretty good about Portland Portland, and I had it as six.
But that would mean that Portland would have to close it out. No,
that would be okay because Portland's closing it out at home there. That's
I'm good with that. Blazers and six, that's my pick. The Blazers
are more interesting because they've they're terrible defense overall on the seas, but they've
been closer to league average since use of Nurkis's return overall from injury, and
then when you look at the minutes with him on the court, they rank
in the eighty first percentile of defensive efficiency that includes all line up who have
logged at least fifteen possessions. That's actually huge, that's huge. I agree
with what you said about him going up against Yokich. I don't know how
much it helps. When Yoki is now scooting by guys off the dribble and
taking these taking threes, we're seeing more willing to take threes. He also
when you look at his splits, he just seems more willing and better at
shooting threes in the postseason, and so if there's an improvement from the point
that he's at right now, I still think Portland's in trouble. The Michael
Porter Junior question is so fair because he played fantastic basketball after the Murray injury
and they did give him a little bit more on ball responsibility. There still
wasn't someone who was generating a ton of his own looks and he doesn't set
up the offense like Jamal Murray would. I also, you mentioned how are
they going to defend CJ. McCollum and Dame That would have been a problem
to begin with. I do think for Kunda Compazo, just the pressure he
can put on the ball without getting burned, that will help. They're gonna
miss p J Dojer against those matchups. Well, even if you used him
to go after Norman Powell, who gives the Blazers that North South explosion,
and I think, for some reason I can't explain it, and I didn't
dive into numbers for it, I feel like he might have helped the Blazers
defensively as well, because he's more of just like this in your face guy
and has the big play potential on defense where yeah, he'll get burned,
Whereas Gary Trent Jr. Was just solid positionally, but they needed because they're
not super talented defensively, aside from Corvington and Nurkis. They need that guy
who's going to give them energy and make big plays, even if sometimes it
comes at the expense of other possessions. I just look and I'm not sure
how Denver is going to defend that. They have Aaron Gordon, which helps,
But Aaron Gordon has spent more time defending guards than I thought he did
this year. But do you want Aaron Gordon on Dame like that? I
don't do you want him on CJ. McCollum. I just don't know my
inclination though, given how Klutchiokich has been this season, well, the Nuggets
played overall without Jamal Murray. What Michael Porter Junior gives you, and he's
been a better help defender. I don't know how much that might necessarily matter
in this series, but if you are worried about Powell and McCollum and Lillard
breaking through what's happening on the perimeter, Michael Porter Junior might actually become key
there. I'm going Nuggets in seven. I don't feel great about it.
I feel a lot better about it if we knew what was going on with
Will Barton at the moment, because we know Dozier won't play, we know
Murray won't play. I believe Monte Morris is back, so that gives you
a little bit extra creation. But Barton is closer to the whole package than
a Composo or a Monte Morris or even a Michael Porter Junior, just because
I think Barton's the better table setter than any of those guys. I just
can't pick against Yo Kitch right now, and I think he'll set up gimmes
for Michael Porter Junior. It's the same thing who's defending Michael Porter j on
the Blazers. Robert Covington's fantastic off the ball, but if you're putting the
ball more in Michael Porter Junior's hands and that's the matchup, how good do
you actually feel about that? Yeah? No, I think that's all fair,
I'll give you. I didn't realize I was kind of leaning on this
without knowing the numbers exactly, but I looked them up, so in it's
only eight hundred and forty four possessions, which is not a ton, but
it's fairly significant. The lineup, especially, Yeah, the lineup of Lillard
McCollum, Powell, Covington, and Nurkicch is plus fourteen point one net rating.
They're good on both ends that their defensive rank defensive rating is one oh
five point one. This is cleaning the glass, no no garbage time,
like I don't know, Man's that's compelling to me. And and just having
Lillard, McCollum, Powell, and Nurkicch. It's plus fifteen point nine and
they're scoring one hundred and twenty point five points per one hundred possessions given up
one or four point six. And those guys are gonna play the lion's share
minutes. I forget now, I'm gonna I think it was Dan Feldman for
NBC just kind of looked at the playoff series, or looked at the playoff
rotations as if you know, you're just gonna play your five guys, which
is you know that's not the case. But that's a pretty quick and dirty
way to get an idea of how good these teams are. Because the benches
don't matter as much. The Blazers are a lot better than their overall numbers
look. Certainly their defensive rating looks on the year. If they just lean
on their best players, and so it sucks. I hate picking against Yoka.
She's the best player in the series. He's obviously the MVP. But
I think Portland's kind of sneaky. I think, I think, I don't
know how you feel, but I got a little anchored to their really ugly
skid when suddenly all the Dame Lillard's unhappy and Terry Stotts is on the hot
seat and this thing's going south, and I just buried him. And then
man, they finished strong and their five best players are are good. So
I kind of like the upset here in six. It's wild to me they
were going in six. I've nuggets in seven, so I could clearly see
it going either way. Who do you have any X factors? I think
one thing I am interest to see is how does Denver tighten up its rotation.
Maybe the decisions are made organically based on who's available, but like Austin
Rivers and Shack Harrison, we're playing meaningful minutes for this team by the close
of the regular season, and that could happen here. I think I still
go Aaron Gordon just because I think he's going to see time against the dynamic
duo in Portland, he defended point guards and shooting guards on more than a
third or about a third of his partial possessions on defense this year. I
think you have to unless you really trust Fakuno, Compazzo, Morris and Rivers
as the combination to get after those two. But Gordon's gonna have to shoulder
a lot of defensively, and they need more from him offensively too, because
after sort of the honeymoon start, he slowed down there. I don't know
what my X factor is for Portland because I don't want to pick anyone in
the starting lineup or that main five. And they also did shorten their rotation
a ton towards the end of the regular season. So you mentioned playing your
best players. I totally agree with you there, They've already started doing it.
I guess could you just go mellow or is an Anthony Simons, those
two guys, anyone who could spare give you some minute. It's offensively where
you can sit Dame and or CJ. I'll just lean. I'll default to
melt there. It's not gonna be an as Canner for me because they'll play
him. But my guests is going to be that you have nerd kis playing
thirty plus minutes per game. You also have the option of do use Rondey
Hollis, Jefferson or Robert Covington even at the five being Derek Jones junior.
Like dude, there are are these different types of line up, so they
haven't necessarily leaned upon a ton this year. But this could be a series
where maybe it doesn't make so much sense to have Canner on the floor as
much, or do you like him against Joe Kich in that scenario, I'm
just a fault thing to Mellow here because why not. He's coming off the
bench, and I don't think the Blazers have a strong bench overall. As
much as we may like some of the guys, I still remain intrigued by
he's not healthy, but to see your little if anyone cares about that.
But and Anthony Simon seems to get post April. Anthony Simon's after April first
feels like he's always a threat. But I'll default to Mellow. It's my
ex factor for Portland. Yeah. I was gonna say cancer, but like
in the bad way, where which is to say that if cancer? The
X factor is that if he has to play a lot. I think I
would take my pickback because because like that's just that's just a death sentence having
him try to handle Yokichen space and with guys cutting and pick and rolls and
all kinds of stuff. Isn't it interesting that the best thing about Aaron Gordon
on The Nuggets was that in theory, finally he's gonna just do the stuff
that he's good at, and he's gonna he's gonna scale down, he's gonna
trim the fat from his game that Orlando is always trying to. He or
He wanted to always be a little more than he was, and now that's
exactly what's being asked of him. He's you gotta up the playmaking. You're
gonna have to score more. You're gonna have to guard multiple positions, and
he is their X factor because he's the asks are going to be huge.
It's just interesting that that this perfect fit because he was going to sort of
scale back a lot of the stuff that he had to do. Now suddenly
he's it's almost it's like an amplified version of Orlando where he's just he has
no choice but to sort of get out of you have to play sort of
outside of himself for the Nuggets to really do well here. Yeah, I
do want if they try. I don't know why it have to be in
yo kitchless minutes, which there aren't going to be many of those. Do
they need him to play make a little bit based on if Wilbarton's not available,
but maybe they could. I would say the biggest thing for him is
he needs to knock down the threes and I stay moving on offense because he's
been fine when he's moving off the ball and trying to finish, but it
feels like he's not always moving as much as he he should be. Yeah,
I agree, So go ahead. No, I was just gonna I
was just gonna say it's reiterate that Gordon's role in this series is massive Blazers
in six for you, I have Nuggets in seven. The next matchup for
me, I feel like it should be higher. Granted we only have three
left. The three v six matchup in the East, which is Bucks Heat.
It's we know what happened last year. Everyone always questions Milwaukee. I
think the reason I almost feel like this intrigue levels inflated by me. I
don't think the Heat have a chance in this series, and I'm just curious
how you feel. So it's it's I think, maybe like my second most
interesting series. But then I have Bucks in five, so I agree,
Like there's I want to it's all it's I mean, it's all all the
cases all there, right, you know Miami handed it to him last year.
Uh that Eric Spolster is a great postseason coach. They have autobio to
get in Janie's way. That's worked. We've seen that work in the past.
Uh. Just the heat again, the kind of like the Boston thing.
I think, I think the heat are I think they played over their
heads the last year obviously to make the finals. They're not. They're not
even as good as last year's regular season heat, and the playoff heat were
three notches above that, so they're they're not starting with at the same level
as they were when they made their jump last year. But it's it's more,
it's more gut thing. It's it's the pressure on Buddenholzer, the fact
that he has failed to adjust a million times, and nobody forces adjustments more
than the heat and more than Spolstra. But then it's just a talent thing.
And the Bucks have so much of it, and they really have kind
of played this season in anticipation of have to play different styles in a playoff
series, and so if they're ever gonna be ready for the Heat or a
team like the Heat, it's gotta be now. But I agree it's it's
it's still like a super interesting series. If the Bucks lose Game one,
for example, can you imagine the like the what the vibes are gonna be.
It's gonna be. I mean, it'll be fantastic, But it's yeah,
same, it's hard. It's hard to see a way for the Heat
to win the series or even really be competitive since I'm picking a five game
series. But but I agree with you that there's just something about it that
feels, you know, like there's the potential for something interesting. And look
the fact that I know we talked about how much more the Bucks switched,
but they person energy increase the frequency with which they played zone basically six by
six times. I'm wondering if that matters versus the Heat, because they improved
their three point clip a bunch towards the end of the season, since about
April first. But you look at them and they don't have a ton of
great shooters. Jimmy Butler doesn't take a bunch of threes anymore. Out a
bio lives from the mid range more than he's going to from beyond, and
you'll be okay with him taking those looks. There's Duncan Robinson, but who's
just the guy that's going to be lights out aside from Duncan Rott And if
you can force the Heat to sort of live on the perimeter, it's like
similar to what the Heat we're trying to do with Jannie last year. I
will say that is the pathway though, because the Heat excel or know how
to play his zone so well. Does that give Milwaukee problems? I think,
Look, Eric Bletzo was dogshit for New Orleans this year and maybe had
a lot of stuff going on. I personally had to change teams pandemic all
that, not trying to dump all over him. Actually drew out is a
massive upgrade offensively, huge can score at every level where Bletso just in the
postseason specifically cannot and is Miami zone going to be that effective then against Milwaukee
when you have Through Holliday in Middleton on the court. At the same time,
The other thing to note here and the numbers don't support the finishing as
with the honest as a screener, but the fact that he's doing it more
and can be used as a decoy in those instances, maybe that's the way
to bust through Miami Zone at points. I honestly don't know. I'm genuinely
curious. My X factor here would be Mike Budenholzer to see how many adjustments
he actually makes throughout the series. He is he willing. Look, the
Bucks made a ton of adjustments this year, so if that informs what's going
to happen, they'll be fine, I guess. But it's it's Mike Budenholzer
what we have to You know, you could is it Janie's jumper if you
want to say that. I just if they're the other thing I want to
see from them is what I was getting at. They didn't really play and
I know PJ. Tucker was injured for a bit. We didn't see a
ton of p J. Tucker and Jannis as the primary front court. I
think that's something that in every single playoff matchup that they'll have is going to
be important. Are they going to go to more of that? How much
are you relying on brook Lopez. You're so good at preventing shots at the
rim. But like is Jimmy Butler is going up against Jimmy Butler sort of
a different beast there. My X factor for Miami is Tyler. Hero played
so well in the Bubble at points last year very up and down this year,
had a pretty strong close to the season him though, and they need
someone other than Butler, and at a bio you can even talk me into
draw it's just because he's not the same player he was last season. You
taught me to Trevor reas it too, because he has to play the role
of Jay Crowder, which is part of what made the Heat so dangerous last
year. Crowder had some really good moments defending a tent to Coupo. They
lost that. I'm not going to say that Jake Crowder is the sole reason
the Heat aren't where they were last season, but he's a bigger reason than
I think people have really noted. Because you can't you can do things like
maybe Andre Goodala helps you there. You lose a hell of a lot of
floor spacing if you're playing Bam Butler and Igodala at the same time. Yeah,
how dare you take both of my ex factors. I was gonna say
Tucker kind of in the same to be fair name half to Heats roster.
So there's a good chance I was gonna see your d is gonna be my
backup, and then you just went ahead and listened him off too. I
think Tucker so sort of in the same vein as as I'm interested in what
Ibacca is gonna look like, because Tucker is so important in theory for what
the best version of this Bucks team wants to be, and I certainly was
not satisfied in the regular season that he's anything close to Rockets PJ Tucker.
You know that that could do do PJ Tucker stuff for I don't know,
twenty five minutes a game. I mean even that, you know, so
I want to know maybe this isn't the series where the Heat or where the
Bucks either need that. I just would echo the Hero stuff because I don't.
I don't think it's realistic to expect Rockets to have just another incredible turn
back the clock postseason run. So if there's gonna be an sort of an
overperformer, it makes more sense for it to be Hero, since you know
he is he can get his own he can get his own toughs. That's
kind of the problem. But tough shots might be all that Heat can generate
against this defense anyway, with all the link that has And I mean,
if he gets, you know, locked up on Drew Holiday, good luck,
good luck to you. But yeah, the Heat are gonna need ways
to score, especially from the perimeter, because the Bucks are going to surrender
threes if they play their bass defense. So somebody's gonna have to hit him.
And so Hero Hero seems like the likeliest candidate for that. The other
thing with did you have a box X factor, I'm just gonna say,
Tucker. It also could be Brent Forbes, but I think that's really dependent
on Buddonholzer as well as are you gonna play Brent Forbes in the second half
over Pat Conaton. It seems like they get addicted to bad Pat haunt in
second half minutes at points. But Bryn Forbes led the NBA in points per
touch this year, and so if you're looking for someone to maybe help bust
up the zone and hit shots from the perimeter, I feel like he could
be valuable. Again, it all comes back to who was buttonholes are playing
because the Bucks are more playoff proof to me, they are also definitively shallower
than they were last year. Yeah, that's for sure. I think we
didn't mention too he wasn't a huge factor in the playoffs. But you know,
when the Heat gave teams trouble with the zone, it was because Derek
Jones Junior was at the top of it. And he's not there either.
And he's also not really Derrick Jones Junior anymore for some reason, because that
just that he hasn't translated in Portland. But that's just another thing that's sort
of off the table for the Heat that worked really well. I have to
not quote Brandon Jennings Bucks in five just like you do. I was tempted
to put this series at the top because I feel like I'm hitting the low
hanging fruit by putting the series will speak about last. At the same time,
I don't want to be the homer here Nick's versus Hawks four v.
Five in the East. I don't know that I have a feel for this
series, do you? I don't. I Well, I think part of
it's because here's my main concern. First of all, you are an enormous
Homer for this to be your second most interesting series. Really, Trey Young
in the playoffs, how do they defend Julius Randall, I think, no,
I'm just kidding. I think I think it is interesting because how much
we don't know because this is it's kind of dead either they have the same
record, yes, where I think I read today there they were like their
their point differentials would have been identical if one or the other had scored a
single point in the sea, like one one more point in the year.
So they're just like not mirror images, because they're very different teams. But
I wonder, so here's my main and there's not a staff for this,
so just take this and do with it what you will. I wonder how
much how much the Knicks might suffer from not having another gear, you know,
like it's such a cliche, but and I'm sure you've even heard this
argument, but it rings true to me that part of the reason the Knicks
were so good this year and so surprising is that Thibeau had them playing their
asses off all the time, and their defense was wired tight to like a
playoff level of intensity and intention to detail all the time. And they had
to because they just didn't have elite defensive personnel something. They have good defenders,
some very good, but I think they succeeded. You know, Randall
being twice the player he used to be was a huge factor and some hits
in other areas, but the defense was just on a hundred. I don't
know if they have one hundred and ten like so I think, and that
don't know if that's the case with the Hawks or most other playoff teams.
So I just wonder if we've seen the best version of the Knicks and we
know that it's about as good as the regular season version of the Hawks,
and on the theory that the Hawks can be better than that when they play
their best guys and you know whatever, all the other they're focused in the
playoffs and they can scout and blah blah blah. So that I think,
if you're looking at these two teams, is even I think that's where I
would draw the potential point of separation is that I think that the Knicks are
like maxed out, and so I don't know how much better they can be.
Yeah, it's how do you increase? And I think it was John
Hollinger who pointed this out of the athletic. How do you increase Julius Randall's
minutes when he was playing thirty eight a game already. That's another thing.
They've already played all their best guys like playoff rotation type style. So that
yeah, great, that's a great point. I think what this works against
them because they play so slow. They were thirtieth in average possession time in
the league this year, twenty ninth after the trade deadline, so playing a
lot faster. I don't know that you talk about the lack of the offensive,
lack of a different gear in general. Maybe they have it defensively,
because I think we've seen it. Everyone talks about their shot profile, allowing
too many looks at the rim, too many threes when you really dug into
them, especially later on in the year, the shots at the rim Newlands
a well is just gonna eat those for breakfast. Anyway. From beyond the
arc, they're like really selective. They help off from different spots, it
seems like, and they'll chase guys off the above the brake looks, and
so I think their defense is even better than people assume and should be fine
in the playoffs. Who who do you have if you're the Hawks to throw
at Julius Randall's The other question, do you trust Clint Capella on switches?
I don't think it can be John Collins as okay as he's been on defense
this year. It can be DeAndre Hunter in theory. How many minutes are
you getting from him after he missed so much time with his injury. I
think it was a knee injury, right, So Randall's been hitting tough shots
all year. I'm wondering if he can actually just dice up the Hawks and
have an easier time than normal, that will really help them. But who
the Knicks day? You know who? And then all if the other question
is you know who's defending? Derek Rose been spectacular for the Knicks and are
they gonna How much we know Derek Rose will play with the starters? How
much did they lean on the bench units that were so good for them?
It was either RJ. Barrett plus bench units started killing people towards the end
of the season. They've done. Julius Randol vers every bench because I do
think a manuel quickly and Derek Rose playing them at the same time, that
puts the hot Hawks in some dicey situations. Chris Dunn wasn't really a part
of the rotation towards the end of the year. I don't believe even after
he came back from injury, he would be a natural option for them to
go after that with. But Cam Reddish still hurt. So how would you
defend that that backcourt if you're Atlanta. I think the Knicks offense can.
I don't think it's gonna have a higher ceiling. I think it can maintain
the higher level of efficiency it was already playing with post All Star Break there.
I'm still just hesitant to pick them because barn Vardanovitch has been just absolutely
on fire. You have Trey Young, you have Kevin Hurder. They're gonna
do a lot of different things in motion. On offense, Reggie Bullock has
been fantastic. He'll help. I think RJ. Barrett will do well off
the ball. It feels like they're one guy short. And I'm gonna tell
you right now, my X factor for the Knicks surprise surprise is frank Nie
Laikina. And if you baby, if you're not playing frank Ni Lakina in
this series, at least fifteen minutes a game, the chances of you winning
it to me, are exponentially lower. This is my homerism coming out.
I'm sure who else is suited to go after Trey Young though on this team?
Who No, that's that's a great I mean, that's a great point
because but I do think you're tripped up and you weren't expecting to do the
frank Nie Lakina deep died. It ties into one of the things I was
gonna get to, which is that I'm this is maybe one of the biggest
angles of the series, is what's Trey Young gonna look like against the playoff
defense that tries to get the ball out of his hands? Because so I
don't think there's gonna be one guy most of the time on him. I
think I think you'll see a lot of traps and I think you'll see and
this is why I'll just say DeAndre Hunters my X factor on both ends,
which is really scary given you know, the the huge interruption, injury based
interruption to his season this year, because I think that is the guy you
probably hope can bother Randall the most, because I don't think he want Capella
out there. I think he's got other stuff he needs to be doing.
And I don't think he's mobile enough to stay with Randall, so he's so
it's it's big on that end. It's big on the other end because if
you are forcing the ball out of Trey Young's hands, Bogdanovic sure fine,
totally capable. We'll see how many minutes they match him up with Young,
because I think he might want him playing a lot of second uni minutes.
But then that's going to fall to Hunter to create two and he looked.
That was one of the biggest parts of his you know, early season leap
where it was just like, man, this guy is suddenly, you know,
one of the best five best young three and d wings with the kid
has some off the bounce stuff and like he was just I was so sold
on him before he got hurt. He's gonna have to play make a little
too, because I think Nilikina clearly is the best option to put on Trey
if you have to, it has to be one guy. And the only
thing I'm going to say really quickly on that to interject is that if that
is in any way something that we are saying, he should have been a
more integral part of the rotation during the regular season that's all I'm gonna say.
No, I'm always here for Frankie Smokes Propaganda. That's what it comes
to you for. We are the official podcast of Frankie Smokes Propaganda. So
you're you've come to the right place, a good place to be. Yeah.
No, I think Hunter's really important. And that's probably the scariest part
of all this, The Knicks X factor. I don't know who. I
guess. I can't say Nilikina. Yeah, I don't know. It's interesting
for them because it's like you can't I won't pick a defensive guy because they're
just such a cohesive kind of defensive unit. I guess it would be Noel.
You know, is he gonna be as dominant defensively as Capella? Can
he play a bunch of minutes? Yeah, I don't know. I guess
maybe it's quickly, just because I'd like to see how he sustains his effectiveness
against a playoff defense. I feel like I keep going back to that,
but I just can't. I've never been more convinced that the playoffs are just
different. And so what you think you know about a player, especially a
rookie, you can't really verify that until you see what happens in the playoffs.
So I'd be curious if he is similarly effective, if he can sort
if it's Young on him, if he can sort of make Young work and
tire him out. That seems like that might be important if you're trying to
slow at Lanta down on offense. Yeah, I don't know. I think
this will be a good series. I feel bad for forgiving you shit about
picking it as your second most interesting, because we've had a lot to say
about it. Yeah, look, you can go. I think you go
with Argy Barrett of Bullock as another X factor too, because I'm assuming one
of those guys seems sees a ton of time on Bodanovitch. Maybe Block see's
a ton of time on Trey Young if they if the Knicks don't play Nilokin
in the first place, maybe even Barrett does too. I'd say it's probably
more likely Bullock. The other thing here is, though, how often is
you could say tips is Alfred Peyton playing ever in this series? And I
want to make it clear that because it's a pandemic season, because Alfred Peyton
seems all over the place on the court, I don't necessarily want to dump
all over him to borrow phrase from before, but he's been fucking awful this
year for them. They are a minus eighty three points this year when he's
on the court, they're plus two hundred and forty five when he's off.
I know a lot of those are bench minutes. I don't fucking care because
we've seen Rose play with the starters and they've annihilated people. I'm not even
saying start Rose, Start Frank Niel Akina shocker novel. I know, and
I understand the thought process behind starting someone like Peyton. Theoretically get you into
your offense where Neil Kina will not, and then it saves you have Derek
Rose, gives you an age off the bench. And I do think they
really like the idea of giving Iq and Rose minutes together because of how much
of a mismatch that they could be. It's not the time to do that.
Just up the minutes of you know, Derek Rose, just start him
if you want, and then just play him a ton extra minutes and hope
that his efficiency holds. But that's something that could lose the Knicks the series.
If Alfred Peyton is going to play, you know, a ceremonial fifteen
minutes a game. So I was gonna Peyton has been one of the most
inexplicable starters to me that's kept his job on any team all years. Bogans
doesn't even understand it. We may have to, well, so can you
explain why? Because I agree Payton, the numbers say it, and just
like just as individual numbers make you wonder, why on earth is this guy
starting for a playoff team all the time. So because Randall can do so
much with the ball, and because in theory like Barrett, actually that's kind
of the theory of Barrett, right, is that he's capable of, you
know, doing something with the ball. He's not a standstill shooter, although
he's gotten better as a shooter obviously, Why haven't the Kicks mess around with
no point guard, just you know, get a couple more, get another
wing out there that can defend, even if it's Nilakina, I mean,
because he's not really a point guard. He's whatever, you he's everything and
more. I just don't understand why they haven't gone away from a conventional point
guard because it seems like they got enough playmaking in sort of unconventional ways.
And I also wonder this there's no staff behind this. But if you pull
Alfred Peyton and put in Frank Jelokina, but put into Alc Berk's right.
But if you put in let's say, Frank Gilokina, someone who's not gonna
get into the offense, does it force Because I do r J. Bart's
really good, especially when he puts more pressure on the rim, and he's
been more consistent about it. But there are games where I feel like if
he doesn't do it early, he just doesn't do it as much. By
not having another ball handler in that starting unit, does it kind of force
him to do that more? And maybe now's not the time to test it
out, But if the alternative is playing Alfred Peyton, then yeah, now
would be the time to test it out. My official pick here, though
I have Hunters the X factor for the Hawks. By the way, I
do think it could be bogged down if you're looking at who do you need
to be the second best offensive player to win? If Trey Young's floaters aren't
falling because of the Knicks contest, I guess you could throw gallow in there
too if you really wanted to. But Hunter just what he's gonna have to
do defensively and they're gonna need him to do stuff offensively as well. I'm
going Hawks in seven here. I wanted to pick my heart wants Nixon seven,
but the math here just doesn't keep working out, and I don't if
you told me that Tims wasn't gonna play Alfred Peyton, I'm gonna tell you
right now. I picked the Nixon seven and the fact that I can't get
if so we can save it. Maybe I'll change it after the opening tip
of Game one, if Alfred Payton is not on the court with eleven minutes
left in the first quarter, I will pivot to the Nixon seven. It's
very unsatisfying that I also picked the Hawks in seven, and there was like
a throw my hands up pick because obviously we've kind of explained why who the
fuck knows what's gonna happen in this series. But yeah, it's really phenomenal
to know that a series is going to swing on Alfred Payton and not in
a good way or Frankie Lakina in a great way. Right, That's that
would be a good one. Suns Lakers inherently interesting because the seventh seed is
favored in this one, which makes sense Lebron and a D versus Phoenix,
What do you think about this one? So if you could see my sheet
that I have, I could show it to you, but the listeners wouldn't
be able to tell where I've tried to decide who's going to win the series,
and in how many games there's like six or seven things crossed out.
It's it's yeah, I just it's I don't even even as we speak right
now, I don't know who I'm gonna pick to win the series. I
maybe I'll arrive at it at some point in the next fifteen minutes. So
it's such a it's if Lebron, this is so like you could get this
this take anywhere. If Lebron and a D are healthy, which they did
not appear to be against the Warriors in the first round of the play and
then I would pick them to beat the Suns. I would pick them to
beat everybody and win the world championship of the sport of basketball. I don't
know if they are healthy. I don't think I don't think that they're healthy,
and so I think not only you know, does that change the whole
West outlook. I think the Suns are gonna I think the Suns are gonna
win this series. And I think they're just they're so solid they you know,
the things that give me concerns. I think DeAndre Atan is going to
be tested. I'm not sure he's going to pass that test. He's become
adequate defensively, he's he's gonna be asked to handle. I mean, if
it's if he's got a guard Davis when the Lakers get serious and play him
at the five, like that's that is tough. I don't know who's suited
for that again, assuming Davis is healthy. But then other than that,
like, I don't know where you're finding the weaknesses and the Suns. We
talked about this a little bit a couple of weeks ago. I don't know
where the exploitable issues are for Phoenix. You know, Chris Paul thirty six,
he's broken down in playoffs before. Maybe that's your that's your window if
you're the Lakers, or that's what makes the Suns vulnerable. But other than
that, yeah, Phoenix is really good and I don't see the weak point
that you'd normally point to as as as a concern. You also point out
the last time we podcasted the fact that Devin Booker and Chris Paul want to
get to snake to the midrange, whatever they want to do that might help
them in this series. I think that I have sons in seven, so
we'll go right off the bat there. And I've pained over this one.
I the fact that Lebron just looked off against the Warriors. Anthony Davis looked
off in the first half. I'm very concerned about the play offensively of their
teammates. We were concerned last year, but this is different from the bubble
because there's going to be they'll be fans in Phoenix. I'm not I don't
want to skew too much in that direction. But Dennis Shouter now has three
games under his belt since coming back from COVID. That's we can't just assume
that he's going to be good in those minutes where they ask him to either
run the offense without Lebron on the court, or if he just has the
ball in his hands with Lebron up like they've been touching go for a good
portion of this year. Can you get a good and high volume night from
Kyle Kuzma. A lot of the times it feels like it's one or the
other high volume, not a fish efficient, but not high volume. I
don't feel like we can just default too like last season. Oh they're gonna
take and make enough threes like they did in the postseason. I just don't
think that flies here. Their defense is absolutely harrowing, though we watched what
they were able to do to the Warriors. But I also wonder Phoenix is
better structured, better suited to navigate that. Who are you You're putting Caruso
on Booker or Chris Paul? What are you doing with the other it's Contavious
Caldwell, Pope. If it's Dennis Shrewder, they're in trouble because we saw
him get burned in the Warriors game. At points, the Sun's like that's
a real issue, just like they're gonna have problems defending the Lakers two best
players. I don't think the Lakers, despite all their and their defense is
credible. It was first in the league without Lebron and Ad so I'm not
trying to downplay that. But the consistency those two play with and the decisions
both Booker and Chris Paul make if they are double teamed, and Bookers double
teamed more often than Chris Paul. They're just so used to that now and
they're gonna make the right play and I trust their supporting cast. If it's
a mcal Bridges need him to take a three, or attack a clothes app
or cut to the basket, he can do that. Cam Johnson has given
them good minutes. My biggest concern here, and it's not the lack of
experience outside Chris Paul and Jay Crowder is the center rotation because the Dario Stars
at the five minutes statistically have been great. That came against a lot of
second units. He was. There was a stretch where he was closing games
over Deandreatan that since passed and Stargs just isn't playing as much. It feels
like defenses, or excuse me, offensive offenses have figured out how to attack
those units. They can't. They can't afford eight and to disappear like he
has, and it can happen at either end of the floor. I think
he's more likely to get out played off the floor offensively than defensively. I
don't actually mind him having to go up against Anthony Davis, especially if Jay
Crowder is also on the court. What I do think helps the Suns,
and you can tell me if I'm crazy here bringing in Tory Craig all of
a sudden, there's this situation where between Tory Craig with Cal Bridges, Jay
Crowder, you can get creative with how you're going app after Lebron James and
Anthony Davis, I think, and so that could end up being big for
them. If Lebron's ankle wasn't in question, and if Davis hadn't sort of
been all over the place a lot this year, even coming back from the
injury, I would be picking the Lakers. I want to make that clear.
But they're not healthy. They're supporting their third most important player isn't healthy
and has been all over the place himself. Sons and seven feels like the
right pick here. And my final thing to wrap up would be and obviously
a few have X factors. I'm just gonna piggyback off of those, but
I think Jay Crowder is my ex factor for Phoenix. Will they consider doing
like the Jay Crowder Tory Craig front court where they just don't have a center.
If Ayton's getting cooked enough and if it's Davis at the five, you
don't do that if it's Gasol and Davis, but that's something I'm just gonna
look at. But Jay Crowder has been huge defensively for them all year.
The Lakers X factor for me has to be Dennis Shrewder because they need him
to be able to generate his own shots put pressure on the basket. It's
not and again, it's not just about the minutes Lebron is off the court,
of which there will be very few. It's the minutes that he's on
the court too, and you don't necessarily have him on the ball. Yeah,
it's tough, as you were about Crowder, you know, I you
know, there's nobody great for Lebron, but if Lebron is diminished, then
Crowder's pretty I'm pretty good with Crowder there. And then the other thing that
does is Bridges is going to guard someone that is not qualified to be guarded
by Michail Bridges, and he is going to shut that guy down and be
all over the place in the passing lanes. And so I think just macrou
the Lakers are if the if the Lakers lose this series, which I think
they will, I think I'm gonna go with you and say sons in seven
because I can't. I can't do it in six because that means they'd have
to win it in LA And I can't do it in five because that's not
enough respect for James and Davis, so seven. But I just think that,
like I just I just don't know where the Lakers are going to be
able to consistently succeed on offense. If James or Davis, I mean,
and is obviously they have no chance if both of them are not not dominant
offensively, but if one or the other, because I don't trust Shrewder at
all. I don't like Ksep might hit some shots, Kuzuma, I don't
trust Wes Matthews, I don't trust to play significant minutes in matter like they're
they're just not gonna be able to score. I feel like I've said that
about several teams, but it's it's an acute issue in this series because it's
just the Suns I think are going to score. I think they have too
many ways to get that done, even it's even against the defense as good
as the Lakers. I just don't know how. Again, if Lebron and
Ad are magically healthy, erase everything I just said. And I think the
Lakers win the series, but as it stands now, I think it's gonna
be really hard for them to compete offensively. Yeah, having Jay Crowder on
Lebron with I guess eight non Davis, and if you're able to use Tory
Craig and or mckillbridges as the helpers because of who they're coming off of for
Phoenix. I also think depending on how the Lakers mirror minutes with who's ever
guarding Chris Paul or let's say it's let's say it's Chris Paul, are they
pulling Alex Caruso when Chris Paul sits? And then the minutes that Devin Book
and Cameron Payne played together they might be few and far between. They might
be able to put real pressure on the Lakers defense in those situations then,
so camp Payne could be another X factor here. He's I'll say this,
I trust Campaign coming into this series more than I do Dennis Shrewder. I
was just gonna say, I think I'd rather have Pain than Shrewder just in
a vacuum for what he does. I just say, Atan is my X
factor for Phoenix and for the Lakers. You can't pick James or Davis.
So I guess I'll probably just go Kuzma because maybe that's a way that you
get you know, you get somebody hot. He makes some shots and that
wins in the game. I don't know, but that's pretty blue when Kuzma
is your X factor, right, I mean maybe he sees time running up
against Book defensively, too, which is that makes him huge? Grant,
this was great as always. Thank you for giving me so much of your
time. I did not expect both of us to have the Suns beating the
Lakers, though. Maybe that's going to be a more popular pick than I
thought. I thought Sons in seven was the saucy selection, but perhaps it's
not. Everyone follow Grant on Twitter if you're not already at GT Underscore.
Hughes does a fantastic job covering the NBA at all levels for Bleacher Report.
Until next time, leave it the shout out to the one the only going
to shift the tenor of the entire Hawks Knick series, Frankielkina