1 00:00:08,519 --> 00:00:13,359 Good afternoon. You're listening to Gambling with an Edge. Now you're your host 2 00:00:13,599 --> 00:00:18,800 Bob Dancer and Richard Munchkin. Good afternoon. Welcome to Gambley with an Edge 3 00:00:18,839 --> 00:00:23,800 on Bob Dancer and I'm Richard Munchkin. Our guest today is named Porter. 4 00:00:24,399 --> 00:00:29,320 He bets player props in sports, among other things. Porter. Welcome to 5 00:00:29,359 --> 00:00:33,399 Gambley with an Edge. Hey guys, thanks for having me on. All 6 00:00:33,439 --> 00:00:38,200 right, so how did you get started betting sport? So before sports, 7 00:00:38,240 --> 00:00:44,159 I had a little history and other types of gambling. So for almost a 8 00:00:44,240 --> 00:00:48,679 decade I was and while I was going to school, I was a professional 9 00:00:48,719 --> 00:00:56,880 poker player. Eventually got to like midstakes after online poker got banned, played 10 00:00:56,920 --> 00:01:02,799 mostly study eight Omaha eight. Then I moved abroad and was an economist for 11 00:01:02,840 --> 00:01:07,079 a little period of time, kind of didn't really like that lifestyle. Came 12 00:01:07,079 --> 00:01:15,519 back to America and I started doing some advantage slots, and from there I 13 00:01:15,560 --> 00:01:19,480 did a little bit of Basically in the state of California, you can be 14 00:01:19,959 --> 00:01:25,879 the bank at some of the Los Angeles casinos if you play two hands as 15 00:01:25,879 --> 00:01:29,000 a player two hands as the bank. So I did that for a period 16 00:01:29,040 --> 00:01:32,680 of time and then at that same exact time, I sort of got into 17 00:01:32,799 --> 00:01:37,560 daily fantasy sports, and again all these other little things were for short periods 18 00:01:37,599 --> 00:01:42,840 of time, and then I just sort of found sports betting market. I 19 00:01:42,920 --> 00:01:48,519 started off in the larger markets, didn't really like the swings, wanted it 20 00:01:48,560 --> 00:01:53,879 to somehow be like a job, so I focused on smaller markets and that 21 00:01:53,959 --> 00:01:57,560 kind of cut out a lot of the variants. There's still variants, of 22 00:01:57,599 --> 00:02:01,719 course, and from there the rest is history. I've been doing it for 23 00:02:01,799 --> 00:02:07,319 about seven years now. Let's say the first year was not like full time, 24 00:02:07,760 --> 00:02:10,759 but so like six plus years full time now, I just want to 25 00:02:12,360 --> 00:02:17,360 go back to banking in California because I have some experience with that as well. 26 00:02:19,120 --> 00:02:23,520 Did you get Now this to most people who are not familiar, this 27 00:02:23,639 --> 00:02:29,120 sounds crazy, but did you get heat for banking and backed off in any 28 00:02:29,120 --> 00:02:31,560 of the card rooms? So I did it with me and a couple of 29 00:02:31,599 --> 00:02:36,719 my friends, where I sort of taught them or we discussed a lot of 30 00:02:37,319 --> 00:02:42,520 It's very important. It's kind of closer to a customer service business where if 31 00:02:42,560 --> 00:02:47,159 you see any backlash whatsoever from the table from you banking, you need to 32 00:02:47,199 --> 00:02:51,879 walk away. In general, the La Casinos I don't want to say which 33 00:02:51,919 --> 00:02:53,319 ones were better, which ones were Some were very bad, some were very 34 00:02:53,319 --> 00:02:59,360 good. They really didn't give you that much heat if the customer wasn't upset, 35 00:03:00,000 --> 00:03:02,759 as long as you took accountability and saw and you know, in an 36 00:03:02,759 --> 00:03:07,719 analysis, and when you felt the table was not appropriate to bank at, 37 00:03:07,840 --> 00:03:10,039 or if you saw any pushback and you got up, we were kind of 38 00:03:10,080 --> 00:03:15,000 allowed a pretty long leash. Now, of course, eventually all long leashes 39 00:03:15,039 --> 00:03:19,159 come to an end, and we did get backed off. But really, 40 00:03:19,199 --> 00:03:23,199 I actually think they were relatively reasonable, and it was more about just good 41 00:03:23,240 --> 00:03:28,319 interaction with the other people at the table and not upsetting them. It gave 42 00:03:28,319 --> 00:03:34,639 you a pretty long sustained run. See, we experienced the opposite in that 43 00:03:35,520 --> 00:03:39,800 the players liked us a lot because we also tried to be entertaining to the 44 00:03:39,960 --> 00:03:46,039 players. But the banking corporations hated us because basically we were taking money out 45 00:03:46,039 --> 00:03:53,240 of their pocket. And you're, oh, this would have been two thousands, 46 00:03:54,159 --> 00:03:59,039 you know, so like you know, fifteen years ago that something like 47 00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:04,759 that, And there was a large there was a large banking group that sort 48 00:04:04,800 --> 00:04:12,400 of we were convinced had to be laundering money that they were sort of an 49 00:04:12,400 --> 00:04:15,639 Asian mob group, and you know, we had players threatened in the parking 50 00:04:15,639 --> 00:04:20,000 lot, like you know, don't come back, or you know you're gonna 51 00:04:20,120 --> 00:04:25,040 you know, you could be dead kind of stuff. I think maybe it 52 00:04:25,120 --> 00:04:29,160 got cleaned up in the last seven eight years, or I haven't done it 53 00:04:29,240 --> 00:04:31,560 in about eight years, so I wouldn't know today. But I didn't have 54 00:04:31,600 --> 00:04:33,720 too much too much. I mean, yeah, every once a while the 55 00:04:33,720 --> 00:04:38,680 floor actually would come and say something, but I would say, as much 56 00:04:38,720 --> 00:04:41,720 as I want to criticize casinos and how they operate, I didn't have a 57 00:04:41,800 --> 00:04:45,360 bad experience really going through that. Well, that's good, that's good. 58 00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:49,800 We also ran into a lot of cheating, so that was always a problem. 59 00:04:49,920 --> 00:04:53,240 Yeah, I mean, I mean, when you bank, you're kind 60 00:04:53,240 --> 00:04:56,759 of responsible for the dealer knowing what he's doing, and even if they're not 61 00:04:56,839 --> 00:04:59,199 cheating, sometimes the mistakes they make, you know, that could be the 62 00:04:59,240 --> 00:05:04,160 swing of your own higher hourly net. Right, So you're talking about cheating 63 00:05:04,160 --> 00:05:10,040 by your employees, Richard, No, Well, that was an issue as 64 00:05:10,040 --> 00:05:13,879 well, But no, the main thing we ran into in the beginning was 65 00:05:14,040 --> 00:05:17,680 the dealer would have an agent at the table, and the dealer would cheat 66 00:05:17,720 --> 00:05:21,720 to send off money to the agent, which is coming out of the banker's 67 00:05:21,759 --> 00:05:30,439 pocket. So and they had myriad ways of you know, scamming you as 68 00:05:30,439 --> 00:05:34,399 a banker. So doesn't sound like a profitable business, all right, So 69 00:05:34,480 --> 00:05:41,399 let's get back to sports betting. On one of the podcasts I've heard you 70 00:05:41,480 --> 00:05:46,720 on, you said you started off with closing line value and understanding that. 71 00:05:46,399 --> 00:05:55,639 How important is that as a starting place do you think for news sports bettors 72 00:05:55,680 --> 00:06:00,600 to understand? So, especially in considering large markets, will start there. 73 00:06:00,759 --> 00:06:09,000 The story changes significantly in smaller markets, but in large markets, the concept 74 00:06:09,120 --> 00:06:14,600 is that they're relatively efficient. Now we're not talking you know, as complicated 75 00:06:14,680 --> 00:06:19,759 and as many hetche funds and you know, big industry companies in stock market 76 00:06:19,800 --> 00:06:26,680 and bond markets. But as you look up the scale of the market size 77 00:06:26,720 --> 00:06:33,560 and sports betting, you'll notice that the closing line in general is extremely important 78 00:06:34,439 --> 00:06:41,319 and over a period of time, before understanding modeling, before even understanding sports, 79 00:06:41,959 --> 00:06:47,040 understanding how the line movement and where the line closes, and consistently getting 80 00:06:47,040 --> 00:06:51,720 the better number over time, you're going to realize a profit in the large 81 00:06:51,759 --> 00:06:59,800 markets. Now, what starts happening is people and as blackjack players. I'm 82 00:06:59,800 --> 00:07:04,800 sure you yourselves understand. I always like large markets a little bit closer to 83 00:07:05,759 --> 00:07:12,279 classic blackjack, where your margins are relatively small. It's very hard, very 84 00:07:12,319 --> 00:07:17,040 hard for the casual and beginner to understand what a one or two percent edge 85 00:07:17,079 --> 00:07:23,319 really means. It means you can go through extreme, prolonged periods of losing, 86 00:07:24,199 --> 00:07:28,399 and when your edge is so small, it's hard to even know if 87 00:07:28,399 --> 00:07:31,319 you have any edge at all. By the time something changes in the market, 88 00:07:32,480 --> 00:07:35,319 you know, and you're realizing such a small edge, you might have 89 00:07:35,360 --> 00:07:39,720 had no edge to begin with. Your edge might have changed along the way 90 00:07:39,759 --> 00:07:44,959 if you haven't made adjustments. So closing line value over time, though, 91 00:07:45,040 --> 00:07:47,639 gives you a true indicator between you know, tens of hundreds of thousands of 92 00:07:47,639 --> 00:07:53,639 people betting and seeing where the line ends. The problem that starts occurring with 93 00:07:53,759 --> 00:08:00,800 that is when people try to extrapolate that into medium and small markets, because 94 00:08:00,839 --> 00:08:07,959 they do not close efficiently. So as time progresses, the idea is that 95 00:08:09,199 --> 00:08:13,759 I think these small markets will continue to get more efficient, But the reliance 96 00:08:13,959 --> 00:08:20,519 on trying to find a sharp site or a sharp market for sites taking very 97 00:08:20,519 --> 00:08:26,920 little money on plays is not realistic. So because they're not taking volume on 98 00:08:26,959 --> 00:08:30,639 these plays. You're not getting the wisdom of the crowd. You're really getting 99 00:08:30,639 --> 00:08:33,840 the wisdom of a few flagged accounts when it comes to when it comes to 100 00:08:35,159 --> 00:08:43,480 legal sites where you know easily I could misspet a play or just be wrong. 101 00:08:43,639 --> 00:08:46,720 You know, everyone's wrong every once in a while, and I'll still 102 00:08:46,759 --> 00:08:50,919 get CLV. So to me, once you're an originator and you're and you're 103 00:08:50,279 --> 00:08:54,000 capping these smaller markets, and at the end of the day you're sitting there 104 00:08:54,039 --> 00:09:01,080 looking at the CLV, it's a fools it's it's a chase. Means very 105 00:09:01,120 --> 00:09:07,480 little when you yourself are moving markets and that's not that complicated in tiny markets. 106 00:09:07,480 --> 00:09:13,879 So what do you do? Are you just left with looking at your 107 00:09:13,919 --> 00:09:20,879 result? Yeah? So unfortunately it's kind of do you have enough volume to 108 00:09:20,919 --> 00:09:24,159 be confident that you're a winner or a loser? I feel like a lot 109 00:09:24,200 --> 00:09:28,200 of beginners though, there's this let's move on to the next part of kind 110 00:09:28,200 --> 00:09:37,840 of after CLV, there's this fixation really on CLV, really on learning how 111 00:09:37,879 --> 00:09:43,279 to handicap, using tools to give might give you an edge, and at 112 00:09:43,320 --> 00:09:48,440 the end of the day, all of these intricacies that you're learning along the 113 00:09:48,480 --> 00:09:50,120 way on you know, how to handicap. First of all, they probably 114 00:09:50,159 --> 00:09:54,799 take hundreds, if not a thousand plus hours to actually get good. A 115 00:09:54,919 --> 00:10:01,519 lot of people forget that there's this whole other component to sports betting. So 116 00:10:01,639 --> 00:10:03,840 let's say you have like understood how the markets work, if you're a top 117 00:10:03,879 --> 00:10:11,039 down better, let's say you've become efficient at handicapping or reading the market where 118 00:10:11,080 --> 00:10:16,000 the lines will move. There's this entire other issue that just kind of gets 119 00:10:16,000 --> 00:10:20,080 put aside, where people are sole products, soul things, and eventually they're 120 00:10:20,080 --> 00:10:26,080 not able to bet anywhere. So there's this extreme fixation on the first part 121 00:10:26,080 --> 00:10:31,279 of sports betting without the realization where if you become efficient at what it takes 122 00:10:31,279 --> 00:10:35,679 to win, there's this whole other world of how it's hard to actually be 123 00:10:35,759 --> 00:10:39,799 able to even bet, and I think that gets lost on a lot of 124 00:10:39,840 --> 00:10:45,519 people, and it's I guess it's sad because people are putting in a lot 125 00:10:45,519 --> 00:10:48,559 of work to become good and don't realize that they should be putting equal, 126 00:10:48,679 --> 00:10:54,840 if not more work into being able to actually bet after they do become good. 127 00:10:56,120 --> 00:11:01,279 It just seems like that part is instead spent on complaining and telling people 128 00:11:01,320 --> 00:11:07,240 you're good or you know, churning into selling picks that become difficult to follow 129 00:11:07,240 --> 00:11:11,519 if they have any value. And it's this whole fixation in the industry that 130 00:11:11,559 --> 00:11:15,360 I ignores the business component, and I think a lot of that has to 131 00:11:15,399 --> 00:11:18,799 do with the type of individuals who are one either good at the handicapping or 132 00:11:18,840 --> 00:11:22,519 to what I call the gift of gap, good at the networking. There 133 00:11:22,559 --> 00:11:28,799 isn't a good melt of an individual or many individuals who are good at the 134 00:11:28,039 --> 00:11:31,919 business side of the industry, and a lot of that has to do with 135 00:11:33,200 --> 00:11:37,759 I believe it's this fixation that sports spending is very unique or very different to 136 00:11:37,799 --> 00:11:41,639 other industries, but in reality, I don't see it being very any different 137 00:11:41,679 --> 00:11:48,480 than other entrepreneurial industries where you have a million different tasks you have to achieve, 138 00:11:48,200 --> 00:11:52,279 and it's not just byproduct, sell a product, or you know, 139 00:11:52,559 --> 00:11:56,120 come up with a model at the model. I think it's just it has 140 00:11:56,200 --> 00:12:01,919 a lot more components and there's not really anyone out there, nor should they 141 00:12:01,919 --> 00:12:05,840 be, I guess, really covering too much about the business side of what 142 00:12:05,879 --> 00:12:11,000 it takes to make it work after you are a winner. This is a 143 00:12:11,320 --> 00:12:16,080 concept we talk about a lot on this show. You know, the first 144 00:12:16,120 --> 00:12:20,480 step is finding a way to actually have an edge. But then, as 145 00:12:20,519 --> 00:12:24,799 you say, it's an entirely different skill set to take the money out of 146 00:12:24,840 --> 00:12:31,279 the casino, and you need both. And you know, in sports betting, 147 00:12:31,360 --> 00:12:41,440 it seems that often the originators do better teaming up with somebody who understands 148 00:12:41,519 --> 00:12:46,440 the second part. Right, you do the originating, I bet the money 149 00:12:46,480 --> 00:12:50,639 for you. We become a team, and often that can be a very 150 00:12:50,679 --> 00:12:58,600 effective way to go forward. Yeah. Look, people don't love stereotyping people 151 00:12:58,639 --> 00:13:03,039 too much, but in reality, if you think about the individual who's most 152 00:13:03,080 --> 00:13:09,480 likely good at sports betting, which basically implies they have a COMPSI math econ 153 00:13:09,039 --> 00:13:16,039 finance but probably closer to math and compsie knowledge, you know, the stereotype 154 00:13:16,039 --> 00:13:22,360 of that individual is most likely not the greatest communicator networker. Look, that's 155 00:13:22,399 --> 00:13:26,120 that's a stereotype. It's not one size fits all. But in general, 156 00:13:26,399 --> 00:13:30,559 and then the individuals who are good at networking probably and the gift of gap 157 00:13:30,639 --> 00:13:35,679 probably are not the strongest in the math science comp field, which is so 158 00:13:37,840 --> 00:13:41,679 you know, often those COMPSI people, they don't want to do that job 159 00:13:43,279 --> 00:13:46,879 right at least the friends that I have that are you know, the the 160 00:13:46,960 --> 00:13:52,519 numbers guys. They want to sit in front of their computer and let somebody 161 00:13:52,559 --> 00:13:56,960 else deal with the other parts of it, right for the most part, 162 00:13:56,000 --> 00:13:58,679 which is fine, there's nothing wrong with that. But you know, if 163 00:13:58,679 --> 00:14:03,240 you look got a guy like Billy Walters, obviously he's not a numbers guy, 164 00:14:03,360 --> 00:14:07,120 but man, does he know how to get the money down? Yeah? 165 00:14:09,120 --> 00:14:15,879 So how big is your team at doing whatever your combination of whatever is 166 00:14:15,919 --> 00:14:18,360 that you do. Are you doing this by yourself or do you have partners 167 00:14:18,480 --> 00:14:24,039 or friends? Right, So there's kind of two different components. There's the 168 00:14:24,080 --> 00:14:28,600 workspace where we do the actual work, and that's a team of four guys 169 00:14:30,519 --> 00:14:33,600 actually ideally, to be fair, though those guys are really overworked, then 170 00:14:33,759 --> 00:14:37,120 I need more temporary guys to come in and out and help them along. 171 00:14:37,200 --> 00:14:41,720 But and then there's this other component of how you actually get the money down, 172 00:14:41,879 --> 00:14:46,639 which is sort of the side ideal more with where I find lots of 173 00:14:46,639 --> 00:14:52,320 people who in general probably not winners, and I find them and I work 174 00:14:52,399 --> 00:14:58,440 with them across the betting landscape, but mostly the PPH space. But you 175 00:14:58,480 --> 00:15:01,240 know, getting out at casinos, there's there's plenty of ways to work, 176 00:15:01,360 --> 00:15:05,919 to work with people, but in general, on that end you're talking about, 177 00:15:05,039 --> 00:15:09,320 it takes a lot of people to provide enough liquidity. So you're talking 178 00:15:09,320 --> 00:15:15,320 about like forty forty partners on that side that aren't involved in the day to 179 00:15:15,360 --> 00:15:18,720 day inputting, day to day modeling, you know, waiting on news actually 180 00:15:18,759 --> 00:15:22,600 doing the inputting work. They're kind of I think of them as a different 181 00:15:22,639 --> 00:15:26,440 type of partner, but just as important as the partners that help me, 182 00:15:26,600 --> 00:15:30,279 you know, with the betting side. So um, just for our listeners 183 00:15:30,320 --> 00:15:35,919 that are not familiar, PPH stands for pay per head and those are basically 184 00:15:35,919 --> 00:15:41,799 the equivalent of your local bookie at the barbershop who now has a website somewhere 185 00:15:41,919 --> 00:15:46,039 and you're betting with him. Yeah, and legals also, you know, 186 00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:48,200 the vandals, the Caesars of the world. Yeah yeah, yeah, but 187 00:15:48,360 --> 00:15:54,799 now so do your we used to call them clients, the people who basically 188 00:15:54,039 --> 00:16:00,559 hold the accounts. Do they actually do anything or or basically you're just using 189 00:16:00,600 --> 00:16:06,840 their identity? No, I mean their their their job is mostly their interaction 190 00:16:06,919 --> 00:16:11,200 with the with the money side of the business, and my job is to 191 00:16:11,240 --> 00:16:15,639 provide them the winds so that's kind of our relationship. They actually go in 192 00:16:15,679 --> 00:16:19,399 and place the bets themselves, some do or some interact with where you know 193 00:16:19,799 --> 00:16:23,720 where where the betting occurs, so they you know, they collect and you 194 00:16:23,759 --> 00:16:27,440 know, the idea is that it's not just it's smoother ride. See, 195 00:16:27,440 --> 00:16:30,120 I don't like to call it clients. I like to call it partnerships because 196 00:16:30,120 --> 00:16:34,159 in reality they do have some responsibility. You know that you have some work 197 00:16:34,200 --> 00:16:38,320 at the end of the day. And that's any healthy relationship. It doesn't 198 00:16:38,320 --> 00:16:41,440 have to be in sports betting. You kind of want both sides to to 199 00:16:41,600 --> 00:16:45,240 just you know, do a little, make sure they feel involved, be 200 00:16:45,279 --> 00:16:48,159 a part of it. So you have enough of these, you must get 201 00:16:48,159 --> 00:16:56,039 stiff some of the time. So yeah, so that's a little that's a 202 00:16:56,080 --> 00:16:57,720 little bit more nuanced. You know, if you're in a good partnership with 203 00:16:57,759 --> 00:17:03,080 a lot of accounts, just like it's my job and it's very difficult to 204 00:17:03,080 --> 00:17:07,480 win, some partners will cover parts of the stiff or some partners are big 205 00:17:07,559 --> 00:17:11,799 enough where you know, you put into makeup and eventually it's one back. 206 00:17:11,920 --> 00:17:17,599 Anyways, and there's a range, you know, if you're getting stiffed. 207 00:17:17,920 --> 00:17:21,559 Now everyone's range is a little bit different. I know there's probably some optimal 208 00:17:21,640 --> 00:17:23,160 number, but I like to think of it sort of like taxes. If 209 00:17:23,200 --> 00:17:26,880 you're getting stiffed less than five percent of the time, you're not taking enough 210 00:17:26,960 --> 00:17:30,799 chances on accounts. And if you're getting stiff like fifteen percent of the time 211 00:17:30,920 --> 00:17:33,839 or more, that's just my personal range. I know there must be an 212 00:17:33,880 --> 00:17:37,519 optimal way to calculate that. It's probably even higher. Actually it's the optimal 213 00:17:37,640 --> 00:17:41,400 range. But if I think if you're getting stiff more than fifteen percent of 214 00:17:41,440 --> 00:17:44,839 the time overall in a year, you're taking on way too much risk and 215 00:17:44,920 --> 00:17:48,559 way too much. It might be like financially optimal, but just in terms 216 00:17:48,640 --> 00:17:52,319 of emotionally, you know, you might have a bad week and then on 217 00:17:52,359 --> 00:17:56,119 top of that you're taking a few stiffs. Just emotionally, it's not healthy 218 00:17:56,240 --> 00:18:00,480 for you or your team. And that's another interesting thing. How you treat 219 00:18:00,559 --> 00:18:04,240 your team. Are they just hourly guys? Do they have equity? Are 220 00:18:04,319 --> 00:18:07,960 some of the expenses on them? And it's a wide range of the type 221 00:18:07,960 --> 00:18:11,599 of employee you'll get, who's just their inputting. Look, I'm a huge 222 00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:18,119 fan of skin in the game. I really dislike a lot of talking heads 223 00:18:18,160 --> 00:18:21,920 that you know, they say one thing and then they don't put money online. 224 00:18:22,079 --> 00:18:26,039 And the reason behind that is I don't believe it's possible for most individuals 225 00:18:26,279 --> 00:18:33,279 to operate optimally or with enough intent and focus if there isn't enough risk to 226 00:18:33,319 --> 00:18:40,240 actually matter. It's just nearly impossible to operate at a high level when that's 227 00:18:40,240 --> 00:18:41,400 not there. Now, of course, there are some individuals who can do 228 00:18:41,440 --> 00:18:47,039 it, but I would say for the general the general rule is that that's 229 00:18:47,119 --> 00:18:52,440 not true, and skin in the game is incredibly important. There's risk, 230 00:18:52,640 --> 00:18:59,519 of course being stiffed by these paperhead bookmakers, but there's also the risk of 231 00:18:59,599 --> 00:19:03,119 having one of your partners stiff you. Right, if they control the money 232 00:19:03,119 --> 00:19:07,440 on an account and the account wins a lot, it's certainly possible for one 233 00:19:07,440 --> 00:19:12,359 of them to just walk with the money absolutely so that you know, that 234 00:19:12,400 --> 00:19:17,640 boils down to kind of the person in charge of the networking his skill. 235 00:19:18,079 --> 00:19:21,279 And some people are really good and some people are really bad at it of 236 00:19:21,519 --> 00:19:26,799 judging other individuals in their character. And honestly, I have a lot, 237 00:19:26,119 --> 00:19:30,640 you know a lot of times where I have accounts that will eventually get stiff 238 00:19:30,680 --> 00:19:34,279 where I know it's coming just based off a few lines that the partner tells 239 00:19:34,319 --> 00:19:37,680 me he'll just write something and I'm like, oh, this is so obvious 240 00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:41,960 what's coming. But it's still worth it for the time being to continue the 241 00:19:41,039 --> 00:19:47,039 relationship. I really and maybe that's just an individual skill set. It really 242 00:19:47,079 --> 00:19:52,240 seems to me obvious not all but many of the times where relationship is going 243 00:19:52,279 --> 00:19:56,400 to go sour down the line. I think the general strategy, though, 244 00:19:56,440 --> 00:20:00,680 from my end, is just kind of to kill people with honest like pay 245 00:20:00,720 --> 00:20:06,319 on time, you know, you know, when things aren't going well, 246 00:20:06,440 --> 00:20:11,079 like you just just just be good with the money and be honest to people. 247 00:20:11,519 --> 00:20:15,720 And I think I'm and it's not just because I'm some like amazing person. 248 00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:21,599 I just think those are sound business tactics that work in the long run. 249 00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:27,279 Brutal honesty, fairness, and communication. Again, there's this weird fixation 250 00:20:27,319 --> 00:20:33,400 in the gambling community that's sports betting is something unique, but again it's just 251 00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:37,279 another business and if you run common sense business practices, they go a long 252 00:20:37,319 --> 00:20:42,799 way. You mentioned you would see signs ahead of time. Can you give 253 00:20:42,880 --> 00:20:48,400 us a for instance, or what kind of a sign that one of your 254 00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:52,359 people would give you that you know that this is going to go south soon. 255 00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:56,720 I mean, you'll just get a line where someone tells you why they 256 00:20:56,799 --> 00:21:02,680 need to delay this week, or how they're having issues with PayPal or Venmo 257 00:21:02,920 --> 00:21:07,559 or just all the time they will be a day late or two days late, 258 00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:11,119 but for no real good reason. It's just happening. And when you 259 00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:15,279 can't point a you know, really can't. It's a story. When you 260 00:21:15,319 --> 00:21:18,599 can't piece the story together, it usually means that there's a hitting, something 261 00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:22,480 is broken in the story. So it's the moment. I would say many 262 00:21:22,519 --> 00:21:27,839 people have it, and it's they have a hard time, like they'll feel 263 00:21:27,880 --> 00:21:33,559 that something is wrong or think that something is wrong and just kind of suppress 264 00:21:33,599 --> 00:21:37,000 it. And over time I just felt like this ability of less and less 265 00:21:37,039 --> 00:21:41,279 suppressing that feeling me, hey, wake up, something's about to happen. 266 00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:45,440 And it's usually these one liners that just you know, you're talking with somebody 267 00:21:45,480 --> 00:21:48,160 that give you the story, and then you say that doesn't make sense, 268 00:21:48,319 --> 00:21:52,359 and then you just let it go. That's the norm of what people do 269 00:21:52,640 --> 00:21:56,200 instead of kind of you know, what do I do next? Is this 270 00:21:56,319 --> 00:22:00,839 relationship worth the headache? And I think a lot of people just sort of 271 00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:06,359 let it go. Because agreed. And then so there's two different business strategies 272 00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:11,079 in this industry. A lot of people love these huge accounts where you can 273 00:22:11,119 --> 00:22:15,079 get down huge sums of money, and in my opinion, that's a terrible 274 00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:18,279 business angle for this. You want your you know, you know, just 275 00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:22,440 like in any other business, all your eggs not in one basket, so 276 00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:26,680 there isn't any one situation that really wrecks you on a week. And if 277 00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:30,759 you're spread out that way and you have proper liquidity and you've built a bankroll, 278 00:22:32,519 --> 00:22:36,319 these stiffs they're just they're just not going to ruin you, so they're 279 00:22:36,319 --> 00:22:40,440 worth taking the shots on partnerships to do them. One of the red foot 280 00:22:40,640 --> 00:22:45,720 one of the red flags for me was twice twice people who ended up stealing 281 00:22:45,799 --> 00:22:51,079 from us told me at the beginning that it was good that, you know, 282 00:22:51,359 --> 00:22:55,920 we had hired them because they would never steal, which you know, 283 00:22:56,799 --> 00:23:00,640 in retrospect, like normal people just don't tell you that they don't. They 284 00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:06,839 don't offer that up out of the blue opening the negative is not a great 285 00:23:07,079 --> 00:23:12,680 yeah h Well, then I I'll never tell Richard that I'll never steal from 286 00:23:12,759 --> 00:23:19,200 him, because he'll get suspicious if I do that, right. So I'm 287 00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:26,440 assuming you have lots of accounts and you're winning player, so presumably some of 288 00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:30,359 your accounts, say the book you say, we don't want your action anymore. 289 00:23:30,640 --> 00:23:36,480 So you're always in the mode of finding new places to bet. Is 290 00:23:36,519 --> 00:23:41,000 that true? Yes? So in reality, UM, I know sometimes I 291 00:23:41,039 --> 00:23:47,160 have my tips with touts, but I can understand how a person who's a 292 00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:52,599 winner and is tired of the grind moves on and decides to sell picks because 293 00:23:52,599 --> 00:23:57,680 this endless process of what I call searching for liquidity, searching for where to 294 00:23:57,799 --> 00:24:03,079 bet, it tiresome. So I can see at the end of the day 295 00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:07,920 why people transition to something else now that has its all other set of issues 296 00:24:07,920 --> 00:24:15,400 and difficulties, and why it's probably not good. But in general, it 297 00:24:15,559 --> 00:24:18,400 is a grind to endlessly be searching for these accounts while at the same time 298 00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:23,079 also trying to provide winners. Yeah, and how do you if you actually 299 00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:29,160 do have the skill to provide winners, how do you prevent them from just 300 00:24:29,240 --> 00:24:33,599 being crushed immediately once you give out your pick? You don't. So when 301 00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:38,359 you when a tout is good, what will happen in this industry? The 302 00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:42,000 industry is just not that big. So the big players who have lots of 303 00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:45,839 accounts, they'll find you, and if you're posting these picks, they will 304 00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:52,759 extract the value, especially in small markets and media markets too. Now, 305 00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:59,000 there probably aren't any real winners and Sunday Morning NFL sides and totals, but 306 00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:03,440 in these small markets it's there are individuals who when they post you on Twitter, 307 00:25:03,680 --> 00:25:07,400 they are winners. But you're talking about one account that got two hundred 308 00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:11,079 dollars down in New Jersey. You know that that's what that's what you're that's 309 00:25:11,079 --> 00:25:15,160 what these records are really showing. So and that really discourages individuals too, 310 00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:18,440 who might see like a fifty seven and fifty eight sixty percent win rate. 311 00:25:18,559 --> 00:25:22,920 And it's just like listen, if you had thirty accounts and you picked off 312 00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:27,279 the stale, slow or just broken line, your record is going to look 313 00:25:27,319 --> 00:25:33,000 good. And that's really discouraging to the casual that expects some you know, 314 00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:37,920 you win eighty percent of the plays or again, it's very hard to conceptualize 315 00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:41,240 and understand what even a seven percent edge means, let alone a two percent 316 00:25:41,359 --> 00:25:48,200 edge. Yeah, yeah, And if you're betting, say NFL, you 317 00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:53,799 can't get enough bets in a season to have a statistical relevant result, right, 318 00:25:55,039 --> 00:25:57,519 I mean how many games? So yeah, I would say most people 319 00:25:57,640 --> 00:26:03,920 nowadays, if you're listening to this show or follow gambling Twitter, they're not 320 00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:08,680 really believing people beating Sunday morning lines, NCAF, NCAA B, these medium 321 00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:12,440 sized markets, extra games, those things make more sense. But I would 322 00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:17,240 say your listener probably on this show is a little bit more advanced than thinking. 323 00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:21,279 I mean, it would be the equivalent of someone effectively saying they're crushing 324 00:26:21,599 --> 00:26:25,960 the stock market over an extremely long period of time. Although we did have 325 00:26:26,079 --> 00:26:30,000 at Thorpe on the show. Nice. Nice, Yeah, Well, you 326 00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:36,480 know, teach your zone and we have lots more to talk about with Porter, 327 00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:41,039 but first we have some commercials. 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If the dice roll a two 340 00:27:32,799 --> 00:27:34,519 and a five, for example, you receive seven X for the hand. 341 00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:40,799 The multipliers sometimes comes on the draw, sometimes on the deal, never both. 342 00:27:41,559 --> 00:27:45,359 There are no strategy variations required for this game compared to the base game, 343 00:27:47,079 --> 00:27:52,000 and the hot roll feature is even money, meaning that the dice ad 344 00:27:52,000 --> 00:27:57,279 no ev by a duet at variance which means excitement and sometimes it means extra 345 00:27:57,480 --> 00:28:02,400 W two g's. If you're interested in getting an edge at sports betting, 346 00:28:02,440 --> 00:28:07,000 then unabated dot com is a great resource for you. Founded by frequent gambling 347 00:28:07,000 --> 00:28:11,319 with an Edge guests Captain Jack and Rufus Peabody, unabated dot com is designed 348 00:28:11,319 --> 00:28:15,799 for both new and experienced sports betters. Their real time oddscreen tools and calculators 349 00:28:15,839 --> 00:28:19,319 take a lot of the guesswork out of trying to quantify your edge. There's 350 00:28:19,359 --> 00:28:23,440 also plenty of free education and instruction to help you along your journey to becoming 351 00:28:23,440 --> 00:28:27,400 a sharper sports better. You can currently take advantage of a seven day free 352 00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:33,160 trial to decide if premium membership at Unabated is right for you. Right, 353 00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:37,160 we are back talking with Porter tell Us about losing streaks and winning streaks in 354 00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:42,880 sports betting. Right, So, in general, I think the simplest way 355 00:28:42,920 --> 00:28:48,119 to think about it is the larger the market, the larger your variants will 356 00:28:48,160 --> 00:28:52,240 be. So the more prolonged down settings, the smaller the market, the 357 00:28:52,519 --> 00:28:57,000 less variance and the shorter year down streaks can be. Now in large, 358 00:28:57,200 --> 00:29:02,480 medium markets, I've heard of individuals who I know are good and who I 359 00:29:02,480 --> 00:29:10,480 know our winners have losing seasons that would be relatively abnormal in a very small 360 00:29:10,559 --> 00:29:14,440 market. But honestly, you know, if you flip the coin ten thousand 361 00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:18,279 times, you're gonna go through streaks where a thousand times you're gonna get tails 362 00:29:18,319 --> 00:29:22,759 three hundred and head seven hundred and if you're in this business long enough those 363 00:29:22,799 --> 00:29:30,000 events, they're definitively going to happen to you eventually. And a lot of 364 00:29:30,000 --> 00:29:34,960 it is you know, your mental fortitude and not making you know, not 365 00:29:36,079 --> 00:29:38,519 making mistakes because of the tilt that you go on. I think actually one 366 00:29:38,559 --> 00:29:42,160 of the best strategies for that for people who do go on tilt is to 367 00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:48,240 actually find markets that are so small you can't bet enough to actually hurt yourself. 368 00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:52,200 And if you focus on those markets, you're one edge is greater, 369 00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:57,319 and two it's basically impossible for if you do have you tilt. Tilt is 370 00:29:57,400 --> 00:30:02,920 usually some kind of like this thought process of your owed or deserve something. 371 00:30:03,240 --> 00:30:07,200 So I think if you can kind of get around this I'm unique, I'm 372 00:30:07,279 --> 00:30:11,240 different, I'm owed, I deserve better than this mindset, you can really 373 00:30:11,279 --> 00:30:15,359 avoid a lot of this like mental weakness. I guess you could say during 374 00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:22,759 tilting times. But in general, every single person, no matter what they're 375 00:30:22,799 --> 00:30:26,440 doing, no matter how big, their edges, will eventually go through swings. 376 00:30:26,640 --> 00:30:30,880 And some people have the makeup for it, and then some people honestly 377 00:30:30,279 --> 00:30:36,759 don't. And it's a lot easier to go through those swings if you're appropriately 378 00:30:37,279 --> 00:30:41,960 betting, or I would even say under betting your bankroll. It's difficult to 379 00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:47,079 really send yourself into a spiral if again, you're just using common sense business 380 00:30:47,119 --> 00:30:49,880 strategies. You know, would you rather invest in a company that's making the 381 00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:55,119 same amount of dollars but has ten million in loans or one million in loans? 382 00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:57,240 You know, it's just all about are you properly leveraged, are your 383 00:30:57,240 --> 00:31:03,039 properly positioned? And a lot of times, of course you're going to go 384 00:31:03,079 --> 00:31:07,319 on tilt if you lost forty percent of your bankroll. There's there's there's no 385 00:31:07,359 --> 00:31:10,759 one who's, you know, mentally strong enough when you lose half of everything 386 00:31:10,759 --> 00:31:14,960 in thirty minutes. So it's just a question, and you know that puts 387 00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:18,519 you in another situation. I mean, some people are putting in a lot 388 00:31:18,519 --> 00:31:22,720 of work, get good, bet small and when you calculate your ev you 389 00:31:22,799 --> 00:31:26,839 might as well be working at McDonald's making the same amount of money. So 390 00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:30,759 it's hard to really conceptualize swings, conceptualize how much it takes to get down 391 00:31:30,799 --> 00:31:36,079 to make meaningful, and that's different for each person what meaningful is and what 392 00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:41,240 it takes to sustain their lifestyle. But swings happen, and they're anytime you 393 00:31:41,240 --> 00:31:45,279 hear anybody telling you they're up one hundred and seventy five units in a short 394 00:31:45,319 --> 00:31:49,440 period of time, you know they're either one lying or two. They also 395 00:31:49,519 --> 00:31:53,720 have spreeze of negative three hundred units. You know, there isn't this magic 396 00:31:53,799 --> 00:31:59,680 formula of just absolutely crushing and destroying. If there was, no one would 397 00:31:59,680 --> 00:32:01,920 be posting about it because they would be a billionaire. You know, if 398 00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:07,599 you actually could have a five ten percent edge on Sunday morning NFL for us 399 00:32:07,640 --> 00:32:09,799 to share, there are plenty of places to get down enough on that where 400 00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:13,960 you would need to talk to another soul, you would be so rich. 401 00:32:14,519 --> 00:32:17,039 So again, a lot of this has to do with stories. When you 402 00:32:17,079 --> 00:32:22,480 listen to the story, if the story doesn't add up, it's probably best 403 00:32:22,519 --> 00:32:27,160 to move on and make some other decision. It's really not that shouldn't be 404 00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:30,559 that difficult when people are making outlandish claims to sort of, you know, 405 00:32:30,640 --> 00:32:35,680 turn your shoulder to it and figure something else out. When you talk about 406 00:32:35,839 --> 00:32:40,200 unit size, I mean I would assume you're not betting the same unit on 407 00:32:40,319 --> 00:32:44,759 every bet, right, The larger your edge, the more units you're going 408 00:32:44,799 --> 00:32:49,000 to bet. So it's it's kind of hard to compare just based on number 409 00:32:49,039 --> 00:32:53,440 of units. Yes, that works on a medium large sized market. Like 410 00:32:53,599 --> 00:32:59,240 me personally, my unit is just whatever the maximum I can get down across 411 00:32:59,279 --> 00:33:02,559 all the sites, because it's never enough to actually properly fill like a Kelly. 412 00:33:02,799 --> 00:33:07,319 Because I'm not betting NFL Sunday morning. I'm betting these small markets where 413 00:33:07,319 --> 00:33:09,119 a lot of places. You know, even if you have one hundred accounts, 414 00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:12,640 you can only get two hundred dollars down on each one of these. 415 00:33:12,680 --> 00:33:16,519 So you're not really able to bet these astronomical numbers no matter how big you 416 00:33:16,559 --> 00:33:21,799 are, especially because of the fact that if you do do well, are 417 00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:24,599 you really able And maybe some people do have the gift of gap ability to 418 00:33:24,640 --> 00:33:29,519 replenish at an even higher rate than they're losing. But when you go through 419 00:33:29,559 --> 00:33:31,519 prolonged down swings. I had a guy once tell me this, and I 420 00:33:31,559 --> 00:33:35,759 scoffed at it. But I see a little bit of a little bit of 421 00:33:35,799 --> 00:33:38,359 truth behind this, where you're kind of building equity in the account where in 422 00:33:38,400 --> 00:33:45,480 reality you should get be allowed some playback. Now, in the PPH world, 423 00:33:45,480 --> 00:33:47,200 you know, person could get upset after two weeks of winning and cut 424 00:33:47,200 --> 00:33:52,119 you off after you're down. But in general, not every loss is exactly 425 00:33:52,160 --> 00:33:54,839 a loss, and not every win is exactly a win. There is some 426 00:33:55,039 --> 00:34:00,640 different values to what happens in a situation. So sometimes you win on an 427 00:34:00,640 --> 00:34:05,000 account that's crushed the week before, and that win is going to cause you 428 00:34:05,000 --> 00:34:08,480 to get stiffed losing on that Monday. While nobody wants to lose, it's 429 00:34:08,639 --> 00:34:13,639 not the same as losing on an account that lost the week before. So, 430 00:34:13,719 --> 00:34:17,280 even within the unit sizing and the betting, wins and losses don't always 431 00:34:17,280 --> 00:34:25,239 mean the same thing. Do you do something to try to season an account 432 00:34:25,480 --> 00:34:30,599 when you get it to at the beginning, or do you just all right, 433 00:34:30,760 --> 00:34:32,000 I have a new account, I'm going to bet it the way I 434 00:34:32,039 --> 00:34:37,840 always bet it. Absolutely, no seasoning. I don't recommend anyone do that. 435 00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:40,599 Maybe on legal sites like Drafting Caesars there might be some logic to that, 436 00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:45,199 but absolutely, under no circumstances. It's already hard enough for people to 437 00:34:45,239 --> 00:34:51,800 win to actually season it. It's better to spend your energy and time on 438 00:34:51,920 --> 00:34:55,519 finding more outs than trying to do now. Now, if you have one 439 00:34:55,599 --> 00:34:59,599 or two or three accounts and can't get more, that's a different answer. 440 00:35:00,039 --> 00:35:02,119 Slutely, if you're trying to preserve the account, you should take a different 441 00:35:02,119 --> 00:35:07,800 approach. But on a large scale it makes zero sense. It actually makes 442 00:35:07,800 --> 00:35:12,960 like negative sense. But yeah, this is what I tell blackjack card counters 443 00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:16,880 too, that you do not have an edge big enough to warrant playing any 444 00:35:16,920 --> 00:35:22,360 cover at all. You can't afford to play cover when your edge is so 445 00:35:22,400 --> 00:35:25,079 small. Yeah, that's soft skills and heart skills. It's two different components 446 00:35:25,079 --> 00:35:30,000 of the business. Yeah, there's no cookie cutter answers to any one thing. 447 00:35:30,039 --> 00:35:34,519 In general. These are rules to follow for sports betting, of you 448 00:35:34,559 --> 00:35:37,280 know, focus on winning, not on extending the life of an account. 449 00:35:37,400 --> 00:35:44,079 But there are probably situations where that would be a viable strategy. It's very 450 00:35:44,159 --> 00:35:49,840 difficult to incorporate them when you're running something at scale though. Yeah. So 451 00:35:49,920 --> 00:36:00,880 now you are not a fan of efficient markets or books that take that approach, 452 00:36:00,760 --> 00:36:05,159 you want to talk about it. Yeah, so I would say there's 453 00:36:05,679 --> 00:36:07,840 you know, a couple companies out there that a lot of sharps like, 454 00:36:08,880 --> 00:36:13,920 and to me, it reminds me of poker. It's a story of the 455 00:36:14,000 --> 00:36:19,880 beginning of the end. When you see markets taking astronomical size bets, it's 456 00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:22,079 because they are efficient. Now I get that a lot of people have egos 457 00:36:22,079 --> 00:36:25,679 out there and think they have a three to four percent edge when they're getting 458 00:36:25,719 --> 00:36:30,800 down one hundred thousand, and it probably does happen sometimes, But it also 459 00:36:30,840 --> 00:36:34,239 happens where those guys are getting down and it's a negative one percent edge, 460 00:36:34,760 --> 00:36:40,800 where this love of like large betting places that allow you to bet large is 461 00:36:42,360 --> 00:36:49,519 misguided in reality, especially for most people, it's already hard enough to win. 462 00:36:50,400 --> 00:36:54,159 This idea of large bets means that the market is becoming more efficient. 463 00:36:54,840 --> 00:37:00,440 So a lot of people's greatest strength is actually the fact that these site limit 464 00:37:00,559 --> 00:37:04,519 Now. I know that sounds crazy to people, because even by myself, 465 00:37:04,559 --> 00:37:07,159 I'm all the time saying how unfair it's that we're limited. I mean, 466 00:37:07,199 --> 00:37:09,519 they're running a business. It's fair that it's limited. But the idea behind 467 00:37:09,719 --> 00:37:16,159 limiting it's actually good for sharps, and it's especially good for like mediocre winning 468 00:37:16,480 --> 00:37:22,440 small winning players. And that's because it directly implies that the market will become 469 00:37:22,800 --> 00:37:25,960 Now still, the market over time will become more efficient. That's just nature. 470 00:37:27,000 --> 00:37:30,320 It's going to become more efficient year over year. But in general, 471 00:37:30,599 --> 00:37:35,079 when the limits are smaller and the bands and the limits occur faster, it 472 00:37:35,119 --> 00:37:38,280 implies that the market will have inefficiencies. They just go hand in hand. 473 00:37:38,599 --> 00:37:45,519 So now you're shifting your focus on networking and gathering accounts and still getting tibet 474 00:37:45,599 --> 00:37:50,679 into inefficient or relatively inefficient markets. I know that concept's really hard to swallow 475 00:37:50,679 --> 00:37:53,079 because people hate the grind of the account getting and that's why I kind of 476 00:37:53,199 --> 00:38:01,519 try to stress this over focus on handicapping, top down winning or using tools 477 00:38:01,559 --> 00:38:07,559 to win, or whatever it is that it takes to win is greatly overemphasized 478 00:38:07,880 --> 00:38:10,000 because in reality, if you become proficient in those you will be limited. 479 00:38:10,440 --> 00:38:19,280 And yet limiting keeps the market inefficient. So there's this balance of the casual 480 00:38:20,400 --> 00:38:25,199 just basically needs to accept that somehow or way he should either form a partnership 481 00:38:25,280 --> 00:38:30,920 or he himself be more well rounded, because in the end, you need 482 00:38:30,159 --> 00:38:36,159 a lot of different components to succeed in this industry monetarily. Yes, in 483 00:38:36,320 --> 00:38:38,519 theory you can write your plays down you're a winner, but at the end 484 00:38:38,599 --> 00:38:43,760 of the day, it's about extracting the dollars. It's not about having good 485 00:38:43,800 --> 00:38:46,360 plus EV. It is about having good plus EV plays. And I know 486 00:38:46,400 --> 00:38:50,639 that if you have the right process, you'll end up with the right results. 487 00:38:50,719 --> 00:38:53,679 But part of that process has to do with figuring out how to continue 488 00:38:53,719 --> 00:38:59,760 to be able to get down and not just this over focus on how to 489 00:38:59,800 --> 00:39:01,840 win at sports betting, which is really all you see out there being sold 490 00:39:01,840 --> 00:39:07,800 to people. This argument goes on in the blackjack world too, where people 491 00:39:07,840 --> 00:39:15,000 believe that conditions in the states where they are allowed they are allowed to bar 492 00:39:15,159 --> 00:39:22,119 you are better than places like New Jersey where they're not. So. Yeah. 493 00:39:22,159 --> 00:39:29,000 Now, recently we had plus ev Analytics on and he similarly he kind 494 00:39:29,039 --> 00:39:34,159 of blamed this on the on all of the odd screen tools that if you 495 00:39:35,320 --> 00:39:39,480 if if more and more people start using odd screens, then the whole market 496 00:39:39,519 --> 00:39:45,519 becomes more efficient and makes it harder for everyone you know, to actually find 497 00:39:46,360 --> 00:39:51,280 winning plays. Yeah, plus EV and I don't always see ey'd eye, 498 00:39:51,920 --> 00:39:57,440 But in this sense, there's no question not just odd screens odd screens also, 499 00:39:57,760 --> 00:40:00,960 but a lot of these tools that are being sold I don't want to 500 00:40:00,960 --> 00:40:04,320 mention them specifically, but a lot of these tools being sold to people that 501 00:40:04,400 --> 00:40:09,360 are good are making the market more efficient. It's just straight up a zero. 502 00:40:09,639 --> 00:40:14,159 Some game, someone wins, someone loses. In the sharp and non 503 00:40:14,199 --> 00:40:16,760 sharp mark. I'm not talking about what the casino takes out themselves. But 504 00:40:16,920 --> 00:40:23,000 at the end of the day, it's no different than when this one company 505 00:40:23,039 --> 00:40:27,480 came started coming out with videos for poker. It started teaching people how to 506 00:40:27,519 --> 00:40:30,800 become more efficient. There were always articles, but then there was coaching, 507 00:40:30,800 --> 00:40:35,280 and then there was in depth and that made every single individual better. So 508 00:40:35,360 --> 00:40:37,519 today, I mean, I remember sitting out like a World Series of Poker 509 00:40:37,559 --> 00:40:42,400 event and this lady flashed her card and I googled her and she had no 510 00:40:42,480 --> 00:40:45,519 tournament results, and she made a really weird fold, looks at me and 511 00:40:45,599 --> 00:40:51,000 tells me I needed to protect my three bet fold equity in the future. 512 00:40:51,079 --> 00:40:54,079 And I'm like, this lady has no catches in a live poker tournament, 513 00:40:54,199 --> 00:40:59,360 and it is talking about advanced strategy. So you can see these trends over 514 00:40:59,480 --> 00:41:04,320 time where the market is becoming more efficient. Now people will immediately say something 515 00:41:04,400 --> 00:41:07,639 new is always coming back, but you know what, the sports book themselves, 516 00:41:07,760 --> 00:41:13,159 while they're pushing the envelope and creating new product, they're also becoming more 517 00:41:13,159 --> 00:41:16,079 efficient over time. And like every other market, over a period of time, 518 00:41:16,559 --> 00:41:22,639 I believe that people stay in those markets because of safety and familiarity for 519 00:41:22,719 --> 00:41:25,960 too long, and when a market gets more difficult, if you're an individual 520 00:41:27,039 --> 00:41:31,239 who was crushing at poker and then doing less well, and then crushing at 521 00:41:31,280 --> 00:41:36,719 sports betting and doing less well, a lot of people, Now this could 522 00:41:36,760 --> 00:41:38,679 be because maybe a lot of them also have life leaks where they didn't save 523 00:41:38,800 --> 00:41:43,239 enough. But if you didn't have those leaks, I believe a lot of 524 00:41:43,280 --> 00:41:47,840 people are too conservative and too worried about moving on, and when it's obvious 525 00:41:47,880 --> 00:41:52,119 that things are getting more difficult, people are afraid to take the next step, 526 00:41:52,199 --> 00:41:58,440 which sometimes means moving on to something else. And I know for me 527 00:41:58,519 --> 00:42:01,840 personally that sort of happened with where I did really well then started doing less 528 00:42:01,880 --> 00:42:06,480 well and tried to hang on. And I would say as shocking is maybe 529 00:42:06,480 --> 00:42:09,239 it would sound, because right now things are good, I have no qualms 530 00:42:09,280 --> 00:42:13,199 that if I see a turn in the market that I'm ready to move on 531 00:42:13,239 --> 00:42:15,880 to something else. And that's part of having an edge. In reality, 532 00:42:16,119 --> 00:42:21,280 there are other edges other than just the winning the ws and the l's in 533 00:42:21,320 --> 00:42:23,719 the bets, and it's just kind of like this, all encompassing. I 534 00:42:23,719 --> 00:42:29,880 guess you'd call it like a life life skill of understanding these things where it's 535 00:42:30,159 --> 00:42:36,199 don't just focus on this like one component of winning and losing. There are 536 00:42:36,400 --> 00:42:40,559 so many other elements that are necessary to actually make you a winner when it 537 00:42:40,559 --> 00:42:45,840 comes down to that final result, which usually means you know, extracting money, 538 00:42:45,960 --> 00:42:49,239 holding onto the money because what good is it to win? And then 539 00:42:50,000 --> 00:42:52,599 after a year you just tilt and you lose everything. There's really not why 540 00:42:52,599 --> 00:42:57,239 did you spend so much time learning to become a great handicapper, learning to 541 00:42:57,280 --> 00:43:00,480 read the odd screen? There's these other skill that just completely seem to get 542 00:43:00,519 --> 00:43:09,880 neglected when you talk about going out to find potential partners. Are you involved 543 00:43:10,000 --> 00:43:16,320 in some kind of social thing that brings you in contact with lots and lots 544 00:43:16,320 --> 00:43:20,719 of people all the time, or I mean, you can't just go out 545 00:43:20,760 --> 00:43:24,320 to a bar and and you know, meet people and say can I bet 546 00:43:24,360 --> 00:43:30,280 on your account? And if you go to a bar and you see someone 547 00:43:30,320 --> 00:43:34,880 watching their phone more than talking to their friends about like whatever that is that 548 00:43:34,920 --> 00:43:38,039 they're hanging out, this is indicative of something A lot of people I guess 549 00:43:38,039 --> 00:43:42,239 wouldn't do that, but I don't mind striking in conversation now, by no 550 00:43:42,360 --> 00:43:45,840 means is the second line, let me bet on your account. That's of 551 00:43:45,840 --> 00:43:50,440 course, yeah, yeah you can. What if you have thirty forty situations 552 00:43:50,440 --> 00:43:52,440 like that where you're building them over time, you know, talking to them, 553 00:43:52,599 --> 00:43:58,159 and eventually you know, that becomes a process. Look, then invent 554 00:43:58,320 --> 00:44:02,519 especially post code or during COVID, Twitter has become a very powerful tool. 555 00:44:02,960 --> 00:44:07,239 Podcasts and YouTube have become a very powerful tool. So there are a lot 556 00:44:07,280 --> 00:44:13,159 of tools available to people. Look, in my opinion, it would be 557 00:44:13,280 --> 00:44:16,719 very difficult today to start from scratch and be a network gatherer because there are 558 00:44:16,760 --> 00:44:21,880 winners out there. So really, what is it that you're setting yourself apart 559 00:44:21,960 --> 00:44:27,280 differentiating yourself from other people at this point to make you That's why I actually 560 00:44:27,280 --> 00:44:30,480 never targeted large markets. I could never see a clear pathway in my mind 561 00:44:30,559 --> 00:44:36,679 as to why someone would give me an account over someone who's established. So 562 00:44:36,719 --> 00:44:39,440 I wanted to hit the markets. Look, so I got everything in life 563 00:44:39,519 --> 00:44:45,159 kind of it's if you're early. You know, if there's fifty percent of 564 00:44:45,199 --> 00:44:50,239 the information available and you're operating at eighty percent, that's much better than if 565 00:44:50,239 --> 00:44:53,639 there's ninety five percent of information available and you're operating at ninety nine point nine 566 00:44:54,079 --> 00:44:58,039 percent of the edge. So a lot of this has to do with early 567 00:44:58,159 --> 00:45:00,280 and I would say that today, while and you'll see this on Twitter. 568 00:45:00,320 --> 00:45:05,280 While a lot of people think they're early now into sports betting, they're not. 569 00:45:05,599 --> 00:45:09,400 This isn't The legalization of sports betting was not the beginning of sports betting. 570 00:45:09,679 --> 00:45:14,119 You know, this has been going on for a while. Usually I 571 00:45:14,159 --> 00:45:20,039 believe legalization and market tightening, all these things actually lead to the end of 572 00:45:20,079 --> 00:45:22,840 a market. You're starting to see the end I'm talking about from the sharp 573 00:45:22,880 --> 00:45:24,880 side. This is just the beginning for a gambling addiction in America. Don't 574 00:45:24,880 --> 00:45:34,039 get me wrong. Yeah, yeah, I go ahead. You now specialize 575 00:45:34,119 --> 00:45:40,480 in betting props. Why did you choose this particular specialty and what kind of 576 00:45:40,559 --> 00:45:45,519 props? So kind of like what I was talking about before, where size 577 00:45:45,559 --> 00:45:51,400 and totals the edges were smaller. I consistently heard people that I respected say 578 00:45:51,440 --> 00:45:54,920 you cannot get serious money down on props, and that immediately told me it 579 00:45:55,000 --> 00:45:59,239 was so obvious. It's kind of like someone says, this is no good 580 00:45:59,760 --> 00:46:02,679 that in this space. It almost either means they're doing it, which I 581 00:46:02,760 --> 00:46:07,280 later found out they weren't, or they haven't figured out how to do it, 582 00:46:07,440 --> 00:46:09,719 So there must be a hole in a gap to fill in this market. 583 00:46:10,000 --> 00:46:14,719 So the real reason why I got into it was I consistently would hear 584 00:46:15,000 --> 00:46:17,440 you cannot get down in this market. So I was like, that means 585 00:46:17,440 --> 00:46:21,840 they're not doing it. That means there must be a niche to fill in 586 00:46:21,880 --> 00:46:25,000 this market. And then the type of bets that means is basically you're looking 587 00:46:25,039 --> 00:46:29,960 at individual players, so it can be from a bench guide to a starter. 588 00:46:30,079 --> 00:46:32,280 So will Lebron score more or less than twenty seven and a half points 589 00:46:32,320 --> 00:46:37,880 today? Will Mahomes passed for more or less than two hundred and ninety six 590 00:46:37,079 --> 00:46:43,000 and a half yards on this Sunday morning? So it's almost always what the 591 00:46:43,039 --> 00:46:46,079 individual player is doing, and it's just a much easier market. The truth 592 00:46:46,199 --> 00:46:50,199 is, it's just an easier market to be now. There are a lot 593 00:46:50,199 --> 00:46:54,039 of people entering the space now, especially from the DFS industry, where that 594 00:46:54,159 --> 00:47:00,199 market has become efficient because so many people are actually giving good advice. See 595 00:47:00,239 --> 00:47:05,039 a lot of those people now shifting to sports betting, and they're not dummies 596 00:47:05,159 --> 00:47:09,599 like there is. There are good tools and good information out there where people 597 00:47:09,719 --> 00:47:14,960 will begin to make this market more efficient over time That's just how it works 598 00:47:14,960 --> 00:47:17,679 in any market. If it seems good, people enter the space, and 599 00:47:17,719 --> 00:47:22,280 you know what, there's a cultural shift in America too. I know, 600 00:47:22,440 --> 00:47:25,119 now this is just anecdotal, but I believe it's happening on a larger scale 601 00:47:25,320 --> 00:47:31,519 where a kid is finishing his masters in comp side and he's not embarrassed to 602 00:47:31,519 --> 00:47:35,159 take a year off and give a shot at sports betting. I know that 603 00:47:35,199 --> 00:47:38,159 sounds crazy, but you're talking about it only takes ten or twenty guys like 604 00:47:38,199 --> 00:47:42,679 this, and I'm sure it's more to begin to make a market more efficient. 605 00:47:42,880 --> 00:47:46,920 So you're starting to see a leak where it's culturally acceptable to sports bet 606 00:47:47,039 --> 00:47:52,840 or culture acceptable to work at a sports betting company that didn't exist beforehand. 607 00:47:52,119 --> 00:47:57,719 You know. Now, I guess one of my guess is the sports betting 608 00:47:57,719 --> 00:48:02,119 companies are not willing to invest enough money in individuals who are like good at 609 00:48:02,119 --> 00:48:06,679 the handicapping process. So those guys are betting. But I bet if the 610 00:48:06,719 --> 00:48:08,880 market gets big enough that you will begin to see a shift in the other 611 00:48:08,920 --> 00:48:14,519 direction and they will acquire talent. You know, other corporations have gone through 612 00:48:14,559 --> 00:48:16,639 these swings too, you know, where they just hire better talent over time. 613 00:48:16,800 --> 00:48:21,719 It's still a young industry here. But don't get me wrong. I 614 00:48:21,840 --> 00:48:23,880 mean, I know I sound pessimistic. There's still plenty of edge there today. 615 00:48:24,400 --> 00:48:29,880 But to me, it's very obvious the market is getting tougher and people 616 00:48:29,920 --> 00:48:31,880 will then immediately counter and say, well, something new will come up. 617 00:48:32,400 --> 00:48:36,800 And I would just like to say that I think the sports books are getting 618 00:48:36,840 --> 00:48:40,159 better over time. And it's like that in every market that becomes position and 619 00:48:40,199 --> 00:48:45,039 it's been around for a while, it's not unique. Nothing lasts forever, 620 00:48:45,920 --> 00:48:52,760 right, And but for the skilled apiece, as you said, they constantly 621 00:48:52,280 --> 00:48:58,519 adapt and shift and move on to something else, right, So then it's 622 00:48:58,559 --> 00:49:02,320 just a factor is my time better spent somewhere else or best spent here, 623 00:49:02,360 --> 00:49:06,679 And then you're just allocating your time for resource for you know, your result. 624 00:49:06,719 --> 00:49:09,559 Really at the end of our show, we have a recommended section, 625 00:49:10,800 --> 00:49:15,679 Richard. Do you have anything to recommend to our listeners today. Yeah, 626 00:49:15,760 --> 00:49:22,840 I recently used hotel Slash. There's a For years and years, Bob and 627 00:49:22,920 --> 00:49:29,480 I have been fans of auto Slash, as many of our listeners are. 628 00:49:30,039 --> 00:49:36,639 Where once you make a reservation, auto Slash will automatically contact you if they 629 00:49:36,679 --> 00:49:42,639 find a better rate. So they now have a hotel slash site that does 630 00:49:42,679 --> 00:49:46,280 the same thing for hotel rooms. They are still in beta and you have 631 00:49:46,360 --> 00:49:55,159 to ask for an early activation code, but I've just used it one time. 632 00:49:55,760 --> 00:49:59,760 I like it, I will use it in the future, so you 633 00:49:59,840 --> 00:50:04,760 might I want to check it out. That's hotel slash dot com. So 634 00:50:04,840 --> 00:50:08,519 I was just in Vegas this last week and after a little battle at the 635 00:50:09,320 --> 00:50:15,239 customer service area, they reinstated my seven stars and to celebrate that the joyous 636 00:50:15,320 --> 00:50:22,519 moment event, I ended up going to Guy Savoy at Caesar's. And if 637 00:50:22,960 --> 00:50:28,280 Caesar's is out there giving you a comp I highly recommend eating there. Very 638 00:50:28,320 --> 00:50:34,239 good. I'm actually eating a lot of Caesar's restaurants. I've not eaten or 639 00:50:34,320 --> 00:50:38,599 Gavoi. I heard it pronounced so many different ways, but yeah, I'm 640 00:50:38,639 --> 00:50:44,119 not sure it's a very good all right. Thank you Porter for joining us 641 00:50:44,159 --> 00:50:47,679 today. Thank you Richie. Yeah, thank you guys very much for having 642 00:50:47,719 --> 00:50:52,719 me on. Go out and hit lots of royal flushes. Everybody. Good day.