What is krack lacin, Fellow thermonuclear affers, I am Dan's Valley coming at
you with my certified Fantabulous and Thermonuclear AF co host Grant Hughes, and we
are joined by the incomparably certifiably fantabulous and thermonuclear AF. Keith Smith from SPO
Track knows everything and anything about the NBA, the CBA, and of course
the basketball games that are being played at large. Has been on this podcast
like four or five times now, so it's officially his own fault for coming
back. We are no longer hoodwinking him. We're excited to talk with him
today because it's trade deadline season and who better to have on than Keith.
Follow him on Twitter at Keith Smith NBA. That's spelled exactly as it sounds,
which is always super fun. It'll be on the screen or in the
podcast YouTube description as well. Keith. One, welcome back, and two,
how the heck are you doing? I'm doing good. It's like you
said, it's straight deadline time right where we're we're getting down to it or
what do we eight nine days away now and they we're almost there. It's
it's a great time. I love this time of year. There's a million
things going on. And it's funny because people are like, do you like
it more than the off season? And my standard answer is always yes,
because there's there's games too, and that's my even though I'm like mister salary
cap roster guy and I love all that stuff, I love games most like
I love the game most of all. So like this is the best of
both ones. You actually can't like both, I'm sorry to tell you.
Yeah, right, I know, not allow that. If you appreciate transactions,
you hate basketball, That's what That's what the serious. Yeah, that's
what Twitter has told me, at least Grant. How are you doing,
I'm doing I'm doing great. I'm glad to be here. I'm I'm really
excited for and no pressure Keith, but Keith to just kind of set us
straight on what we should be thinking about the trade deadline and you know,
second aprons and things of that nature. Yeah, to that end, I
wanted to start there, Keith, before we're gonna eventually exchange our most interesting
or fascinating teams that we have leading into February eighth. But because it's topical
and it's engendered, just a little bit of debate on the timelines. How
do you feel about the sixty five game minimum when it comes to awards now
that we're more than a half season into it in practice, and it's of
course Joelle Beid's the one that's the fine, even Tyr's Halburn a little bit
came back for Pascal Siakam's debut and then ends up missing some time. Have
your initial thoughts on it, changed it all or evolved at all? Evolved
maybe might be the best way to put that. I think I understood where
the league was coming from. I have no issue with the idea of there
needed to be some incentive to get guys on the floor more. I didn't
like from day one when it ties into anybody who's already signed or is eligible
to sign a so called supermax deal or a designated player contract. I don't
like that because I think that's going to lead us into guys getting like coming
back early, like Caliburton. I know that the spin has been he was
excited to play with Siakham, and he was cleared to play. I'm guessing
there was some push of, hey, I might have forty million dollars on
the line here. If I don't come back, you know, and get
make sure I hit the sixty five games. So I don't love that part
of it. I want to know more about. There's some it's embedded in
the language. There are some like extreme cases that they'll consider guys less.
I want to know what that means. I've been told that was more around
the idea of like if a player had a death in the family it needed
to miss two weeks and had already missed seven or eight, nine, ten
games or whatever, and it pushed him past that would be something maybe they
could look pack. But I don't know. It's a little for me.
I think we're making a problem now that didn't necessarily need to really be fixed.
Yeah, I wonder like if, like you said, it makes sense
that, you know, there's been a lot of changes made to incentivize the
biggest names being on the floor as often as possible. But I wonder if
maybe this was a little bit of an overthink just because you know, let
the voters for MVP or whatever else decide if sixty one games of this level
of production, how that stacks up to seventy four of this level of production.
I don't feel like that's such a big ask, but it does seem
like we are you know, it always happens, whether it's a CBA changing
or just a specific rule, there's these unintended consequences and now you know,
like you're talking about the money that's at stake, and I feel like,
suppose embiid sustains these averages and plays under the sixty five game threshold, which
seems likely now it might if we didn't have a Jokic having this kind of
season again, it might feel weird to look back at what he did and
say like, oh, he didn't win MVP. That's bizarre, Like how
did that happen? And it's because of we just drew a line in the
sand. Rule wise, It's I'm fascinated to see, like you r Keith
Flusher, like what you know, what changes we might see going forward?
How long is this gonna you know, stick around? Because maybe you're probably
the right person to ask about this. That lower threshold for whatever the extenuating
circumstances are still needs. Is it like sixty two games? Is sixty three
games? Is there a number that if you're below it, we're not even
going to consider special circumstances. Yeah, we it's it's all very vague.
It's not specifically laid out like no matter what, you have to play sixty
games or anything like that. There's nothing that that quite says that. So
that's the that's part of the issue. Right where it is, Jeez,
where are we going with this? Like that? That's where I do kind
of wonder, like, like what are we going to come up with where
then our team's going to start to play games? Right where it is all
this player's out for personal reasons, and you know, we really shouldn't get
into why, and and that's totally fair, like like the like I think
back to the Andrew Wiggins stuff last year, it got, in my opinion,
it got super gross what the people were putting out there and saying it
happened and all this stuff, and it's like, you know what, we
don't really need to know. Like I do think there is some level of
transparency we need to know of like, hey, he may not be back
or maybe two months or whatever it is, and then we can always adjust
and go from there. But I don't even know the reason every guy's out
injuries. That's a little bit of a different thing. That's just you know,
ingrained in sports. To your point, though, where I think it
can't get a little weird is, Yeah, let's say what happens if you
have a year where the top three four guys everybody's like, well, those
are my top four MVP picks, and they're not there, and now it's
like guy number five wins. I do think though, I'm not super worried
about that, because I think somebody pulls up that season and basket more reference
or the list of MVPs what happened that year, and then they're gonna dig
into it a little bit more, and then then you have a kind of
story behind it. So that part I don't worry about too much. I
think we get too caught up in you know, wall you know, for
the historical record and all these things. Yeah, I kind of get it.
I am far more concerned when it comes down to, like I said,
a guy like Caliburton, where it is, hey, this can really
impact how much money this guy makes and you know, missing one more game
to the Pacers care about that? Probably not right, They probably will because
sure they'd love to have them for less money because that's a smaller cap hit
and that's just gonna be you know, more flexibility for them down the line.
But I do think it is a little less I just like I said,
I think you're fixing a problem that I think most voters took care of
anyway. Yep. I will be curious to see if it gets like a
quick reconstruction or repeal after the TV deals are negotiated and then all of a
sudden we just see it disappear. I am wondering. I'll throw it to
you first, Keith, since you're here, though very quickly on it is
there like a is there one of the awards whether if you're talking about all
NBA versus MVP and we're looking at the availability, is there a point where
it matters for one over the other where it's let's use the MVP discussion where
I job plays in sixty one games. Isn't it fair to say that seventy
two games of Shay Gilgess Alexander, this version of Shay is more valuable than
only getting sixty one games of this version of Joel Embiid? So is that,
like, does it matter more in the MVP discussion because the word valuable
is there? And then all NBA should be the straight best do you like
find that there should be a differentiation there is it just kind of like the
same shit different category at that point. Yeah, that's a really great question.
I am. I do lean the way you said where it is.
Hey, if they're pretty close and this guy should be this guy played in
significantly more games, you know, played in ten, twelve, fifteen more
games then the other guy did, and the numbers are not crazy far off,
the team records are not crazy far off. I'm gonna go with the
guy who played more because that just is to me that is more valuable.
He was there almost every night, or, in the case of an increasingly
fewer amount of players every year, was there every single night. So yeah,
so I am one hundred percent in on that where it is, like,
yeah, if that's where a guy guy gets to like yeah, but
that's let me decide that, right, Like, I don't need the league
kind of arbitrarily saying that and then all NBA. Yeah, I think you
can have a little bit more leadway where it is there. I also I'm
very curious to see what happens with the whole positionless all NBA stuff, because
you know, we keep heading down this path. We could literally be what
two three years out from embiid Jokic, one Bin Yama, Yannis, it's
probably still Lebron and KD A D Like, all of a sudden, is
it gonna be? Like, man, it's really hard to make all NBA
because it's filled with all bigs. You know, ten of the spots are
big men. And if those ten guys are the ten best players, okay,
I guess that that doesn't really matter. I kind of did like all
NBA telling the story of by position. I just but that's because like I
grew up on an NBA where the argument every year was the Keema Lajah and
Patrick Ewing, David Robinson and then all of a sudden, here comes Shaquille
O'Neal right, and then right on the heels of him getting shack was there
day one, but a couple of years in now was like a Lonzo morning,
and it was like who's gonna bump the centers out of there? Right?
And that was that was a fun debate, and you really, you
know, look to figure all that stuff out. I think those are the
things we kind of miss a little because in today's world, probably all would
have made it right. And then it's like yeah, and then you know,
it kind of almost becomes like like the All Star Game and in a
respect where it's like, all right, well, we got the top ten
guys in the conference, and then the last two spots are really between five
players, like who's gonna bump them out and that sort of stuff. So
I would have been fine with doing that. You know, hey, we've
got a limit on for the truly individual awards MVP, maybe Defensive Player of
the Year, Rookie of the Year doesn't have them because that's kind of its
own weird thing anyway. But yeah, and then all NBA all defense,
we can have a little bit more leeway. I think that would have been
okay with that. The trade deadline, So looking at that, are there
any themes or unintended consequences from the new CBA that you see impacting this deadline
or that you're curious to see whether it impacts the deadline? I gave you
a few examples, like in the actual outline, but I'm just curious what
you're like kind of actually monitoring or looking for as we get towards February eighth.
Yeah, I'm gonna I'm gonna do two things kind of combined here.
If it's okay, I'm gonna combine the trade deadline and the buyout market.
They really are They run in conjunction with each other. They really are tied
together in a lot of ways, and I think we're gonna see changes in
behavior on the team side and the player side. I'll talk to buyout market
part of it first because it's it ties into the trademarket too. But say
a guy like Kyle Lowry, I think is still very likely to get a
buy out if he's not traded, and I don't think Charlotte will find a
trade for him. But I think he's in a spall where even if you're
the biggest Kyle Lowry fan in the world, one or two productive years left,
maybe as a fifteen to twenty minute of the night backup guard. So
I think that's where for a guy like him that makes sense, and there
are enough good teams that can sign him that he makes sense for that he
maybe does take a buyout, But if you look at his now teammate,
even though they'll probably never play a game together, Gordon Hayward, I don't
know that taking a buyout makes sense for Gordon Hayward because Gordon Hayward is probably
looking at and saying, hey, I still have like a whole more another
whole contract in me before you know, my career is said and done.
Or I'm kind of a year to year kind of guy. And if I'm
Gordon Hayward, I'm gonna look at it and say, all right, well,
I'm gonna take a buyout. I can't go to Boston to walk Phoenix,
the Clippers, any of those teams because they're all over the second over
the first or second apron, so I can't go there. So that that
takes those teams off the list. That that shortens the number of teams I
can go to, eliminates the ability to just hey, catch on with the
contender for the last few months of the season and figure it out. And
I think Gordon Hayward may look at it and say, my next contract,
I using my bird rights, maybe in a sign in trade, I might
be able to get fifteen to twenty million on the open market. I'm probably
not getting that. I'm probably capped at the non tax payer mid level exception,
which probably about thirteen ish million. So I think that's where I think
that'll change the behavior in years past, Gordon Hayward would have been a no
brainer buyo guy, because it would have been I'll take the buyout, I'll
go catch on with the team, I'll win a ring. And if that
means I have to forfeit a little bit of money on my next contract while
it was worth it, we'll figure all that out later. So I think
that that in turn will change the trade market, where now you've got teams
that I think are gonna be looking to all right, can we find a
way to make a trade for a guy like that? Can we move off
some of this salary for one of those teams that's more towards the bottom of
the league. You know, we're gonna find it harder to move those big
expiring salaries because teams maybe aren't in position to take them on. So that's
what becomes really interesting about this one to me. And then the fact that
you do have all these Apron teams, both first and second Apron, and
then you've got a couple that are like right at the luxury tax line.
What does that look like? Where are those teams gonna go? Because one,
for some of them, it's hard to make moves, But for some
of them, this is also like last chance saloon time, where it's like,
if I'm the Clippers and IMPJ Tucker's contract, I could probably pair that
with maybe one other contract on my books. You go get one big time
player that will really push us forward, maybe all the way to the top
of the Western Conference if they're not already there already, and that puts them
in a spot where it is this is it, because next year everything gets
that much harder. You're you're down to making one for one trades, can't
take back more than you send out. You're down to And I shouldn't say
one for one because you could always do you send out one guy and take
back to What you can't do is kind of aggregate together combined salaries to go
get somebody where you're in their position. So I'm very curious to see how
those teams act just because of this is It. The way the Phoenix Suns
treated the summer was everybody was like, all right, hey, you have
a year, get your stuff in order. The Sun's kicked it off,
but then you had the Bucks and the Celtics jump in and like, yeah,
you know what, less chance, let's go, let's load up now
and we'll let tomorrow be tomorrow. Tomorrow's problems be tomorrow's problems. We'll figure
that all out down the line. So very curious to see how that all
comes together. Yeah, I think that's really interesting. I was as you
were talking, I was just thinking, you know, Phoenix and some other
teams, and I was gonna mention Milwaukee very much like tipped and didn't tip
that tip their hand like league wide. But if anyone was curious about is
anybody going to view this ticking clock on you know, the rule changes coming
in as an impetus for certain teams, Like certainly it's not a good strategy
for everyone, but to really just say, well, we got to do
it now because we can't do it later. So whether it's the Clippers or
not, Dan, I thought the Clippers example in the outline was kind of
perfect, this idea that like, we're definitely going to be in the second
apron unless somehow we don't bring back Paul George and James Harden for whatever reason.
So this is our shot right to aggregate because we can't do it anymore.
I do think the fact that Phoenix and Milwaukee and some others operated as
they did several months ago suggest that there will be teams that that's not to
say they're going to act rashly, but might do things that you know,
were the rules not going to change for them, they might not necessarily do
I do. I think I think that feels likely based on what we've seen,
you know, so far in this new CBA environment. I'm also curious
and this doesn't apply in it so to second apron teams. But you look
at and we've kind of already seen the Heat make a decision that they traded
of your your first round pick. I look at the Lakers, the Mavericks,
maybe a couple other teams, soll on there where it's well, you
can trade a first round pick now, but like you wait until the summer
and technically when you factor in the actual pick that you're making this year or
whatever happens with New Orleans and LA. Well, now you can trade three
first round picks. And so you kind of have to juggle that urgency of
well, we have Lebron, we have Luca and Kyrie, but like all
that, we can have extra picks in the summer and theoretically upper or turn
there. So if it's the difference between like if you're Dallas and you can
get Jeremy Grant. Now do you do it? Or is it like we
should wait into the off season because maybe we can get in on a higher
end sweepsticks, Like you're not gonna be ever have enough to get like Michale
Bridges or Larry market In. But like three first round picks is just more
than one. Like that's just simple math, right there. Yeah, let
me add an additional layer to that, Dan, because I think another thing
for certain teams, you need to be really solid in your per actions for
where you think you're going as a franchise, because if you start trading away
picks and then you become a second Apron team, now you're really limited to
how you can build your roster. Phoenix is the perfect example of this,
because what I've been saying is just to keep it simple, because all this
stuff gets very confusing on what can teams do what can't they do? If
you're a second Apron team starting next season, you're pretty much limited to one
for one trades where you take back the same amount of on your less and
you're or you're limited to signing your own draft picks or minimum contracts. Well,
if you're the Phoenix Suns, your one for one trades are pretty limited
because you just most of your your tradeable bigger salaries are tied up in key
rotation guys or starters. For you, they're only non minimum contract that doesn't
start for them is this Yere Little the other five that they their five regular
starters of Durant, Beale, Booker, Nurkic, and Grayson Allen. So
you're limited there in your tradeability of contracts. We all know picks wise,
totally cow they are, how like you know, forever of picks they they
I thought Zach Lowe has put it really well when he said they they hore
cruxed some of their first rounders and swaps and the like to be able to
pick up some seconds, because that's really what they did, right. It
was like, hey, let's trade whatever we can just to get some seconds,
so we have a couple of seconds in the door to sweeten the pot
in the deal. And then then really, as we saw this summer,
you're not assigning minimums. So that's where if you're the Lakers, let's say,
and they're probably not a great example because a couple of their guys A
D and Lebron are a little older. Who knows Lebron may never retire,
right, it seems that way some days. But I think you look at
it and you say, you gotta be kind of careful trading picks that are
too far down the line, because we are the Lakers. If we can
flip this thing very quickly, which they've done in years past, and we
become super expensive. Now, all of a sudden, we're out those picks
and and everybody's like, yeah, but they become frozen anyway. Yeah,
that's true, they would become frozen, but you don't even have them.
Never mind it's frozen as the thirtieth pick, you don't even have it.
And then all of a sudden, it's like, well, I hope we
can hit on seven minimum signings. And as you've seen with Phoenix, I
liked a lot of their minimum signings over the summer, they haven't all panned
out, and that becomes very very hard to do because your roster is super
top heavy. So that's another thing that's gonna factor in for a handful of
these teams. One of them I'll save because I want to talk about them
later. But you got to be really cautious with I always used I very
firmly believe when you're close to winning a title, go for it because tidle
windows are never as big as people think. They close way quicker than people
are thinking. Like Oklahoma City, everybody's like they've got the next ten years.
They don't. I had nothing I believe in more firmly than it will
not last ten years. For the Thunder, It'll maybe maybe to last five
or six, but it's not gonna be ten years of this. It just
isn't. That's just not how the league works. So you're really close,
like, go for it now, and they're a completely different stratosphere because it's
you could go forward all in and somehow still have chips left to play later
just because of where they're sitting. Yeah, you would think if any franchise
was aware of the uh of overestimating gets title when, it would be Oklahoma
City, because in twenty twelve we were all no one could stop talking about
how this team was going to be here forever, and it never made it
back to the you know, it's just it's super fine at you, Dan.
I don't want to jump on Dan if you had something to ask,
but just talking about these draft picks. Dan and I talk about this a
lot as we're trying to think of trade constructions or think of what team's plans
ought to be going forward. The value of a first round pick, I
would say probably bottomed out fairly recently when you're seeing you know, four and
five and you know three and several swaps going really in the last like eighteen
months, I guess, and certainly they were more highly valued, at least
if you're looking at them as pieces of being involved in a trade in years
past, where it was, you know, I could just distinctly remember discussing
William Bogdanovich several years ago, probably in the context of the Washington trade,
where it's like, is he worth a first I don't know where do you
think we are in terms of the value of first round draft picks? And
I think you probably can't discuss this without thinking of certain specific situations where you
really can't give these up, because if you hit the second apron, then
you got nothing like what where are we you know, in the EBB and
flow of what first are worth right now? Because you just look at like
zach levine hypotheticals or Demardo's and hypotheticals, and those are all typically pick heavy
discussions, But it just seems like nobody's really sure what a first is,
you know, keeping aside the fake first like you know, they're ridiculous protections,
the lesser of this and that, and they'll convey or they won't type
of things. Where are we on the value of first right now? Yeah,
that's a great question. I think it is still somewhat team dependent.
For example, to trade Miami Made with Charlotte. Yeah, I don't really
worry about the Heat giving up a first round pick because nobody's better at plucking
an undrafted guy out of the G league and developed developing them into a rotation
player. The Thunder I would have no issue with them trading any kind of
first round pick because they've got a million of them in a vacuum. Like
if you were just to say, hey, today, you know what,
we're going to reset and everybody gets all your own picks back and we're going
to restart this thing, I think it would be I think then it really
comes down to we an organization that believes in building through the draft, or
we're gonna build through trades in free agency because it's always and it's never people
will say, well, you're gonna build through free agency, that's not a
viable path because just the way the NBA works, by the time you sign
two free agents, you're kind of now we're out of cap space, and
you know there it is. So it's really trades in free agency. So
I think if if you believe that we can draft and develop and we can
get there, those picks become super valuable to you. That's why you're reluctant
to move any of them. That's also why you are so gung ho on
getting them right, like we're gonna get them in mean in trades. Now,
I think there becomes a tipping point in every organization where they become a
little too precious. The Memphis Grizzlies, I think have been a little too
precious with we drafted these guys, we can't we can't trade them, and
and now what's happened is you you've kind of I know, they're in the
super weird spot right now where everybody's injured and they have hardships, but just
in a world war, they're healthy. You run out of roster spots and
you're not no one knowing that's a thousand in the draft, right, Like
you miss on some guys and then the next thing, you know is like,
now we're really expensive, and now we have Jake Laavia on a rookie
scale deal. Normally that'd be great, but do we really want to be
paying him five million dollars to never play? You know, maybe we should
have traded him when he was still a little bit more of a mystery box
and he was an unknown and we could have sent him out somewhere. So
it's between the players and the picks. But I think picks still have a
ton of value. I think it's you know, whether it is to be
used as currency and trades just to be used as draft picks. I think
what's happened is you had teams that were to gober the Mitchell the KD trades.
It was teams that were like, man, we want to be in
it, right, we want to be in the mix, and we have
a chance to get superstar X, who doesn't really come available all that often.
Let's go and if that's what it takes, let's load up and go
get that player. And then you invariably though those trades, if you win
a title, fine, it worked, right If even if you win one
title, it worked, But if you don't, I have yet to see
them one where it's by the end. It's like, man, I kind
of wish we had that one pick back right, Like like I wish we
had that pick. So I think they're still super valuable. It's just it's
very organizational dependent. Do you make before we get into the teams that we're
all thinking about? Do you make anything of seeing so many? I would
say consequential moves happen, like before deadline day, the hardened thing was its
own, just another hard and trade demand, but like oge c Akham then
even kind of the rosier deal getting done a few weeks before the deadline.
Do you think that says anything about the way teams are thinking? Do you
think it says anything about what's gonna happen like leading up to the deadline?
Could it be quieter than usual? Does it maybe just pour ten more chaos
than usual? What did you kind of make of just seeing four but really
just three of these deals kind of happened within a two weeks band so far
in advance of the deadline itself. Yeah, I love that question because that
gets into that again a little bit more philosophy from different teams. I think
if you are the Knicks and the Pacers, I think they both made a
read of we're pretty good and we but we have holes. Right, we're
good teams, we really want to be top six, ideally pushing for home
court advantage in the first round. I think they were very realistic to understand
we're probably behind Boston, Milwaukee and Philly, but let's be the top of
the next tier, right, Let's get home court advantage. And I think
what we have now seen is there's a benefit to being an early mover because
instead of the Knicks getting og Ananobi, and this is taking the Randall injury
and all that out, because now it's even bigger right that they have Anonobi.
I know he's dealing with something too, but it sounds like that's pretty
minor. But I think for the Knicks, you saw the immediate benefit of
moving as early as they did. They went up, up, up in
the standings. They've been playing great, and then continue to play great even
with Randall out last night, So I think that's important. I think the
Pacers moved on Siakam because it was let's not let this get to a place
where all right, we'll throw you two first round picks that we weren't going
to do before, plus really good young player X that we were holding on
to. Like we we're ready now to go in because maybe we slipped in
the standings and things aren't where we want them to be. And then from
Toronto side, I think Toronto, those guys have been on the market for
years. I think we could safely say to some degree, you know that
they hadn't traded them, and I think Missile Eu Jerry and Bobby Webster have
a pretty good read on unless some miracle team in their eyes, get super
desperate, it's probably not getting better than this. This is probably where we're
at, So we might as well move now, and then we get the
added benefit of let's kind of see what this looks like together a little bit.
Then if we want to move Bruce Brown, they'd say let's go,
because we just it's we don't really see him being a guy here long term.
You have that benefit to say, hey, we got them, and
we flipped them, and now our overall seaka return is maybe instead of what
they get the three first rounders from Indiana, it really turns into four first
round picks because we flipped Bruce Brown for an additional first round pick, and
that that's why I think you're seeing those early movers. And then you have
other teams that are I think we're okay, like let's let's wait, let's
wait, let's wait. And then it's I know there are teams because they've
told me direct they believe waiting until noon on trade deadline day that's sometimes where
you can get the best values because now all of a sudden, some team
is sitting with a guy with's like, man, we were holding out for
a first round pick for this guy, We're not gonna get it, and
there's only two hours to go to the deadline. All right, we'll take
two seconds for him, and you know, let's let's move. And and
that's that's sometimes where those those teams believe, you'll let's hold on. So
I think it is. It's again it's very team by team specific, but
it's that that to me makes it almost way more interesting and fun because if
everybody waited until deadline day, you know we in It's Andrew Brandt. I
don't know if you guys know him. He's a football guy. He's like
the Packers GM he tweets every time there's something related to a deadline deadline spur
action, right, And it's so true, right because everybody's like, and
we've done nothing like where we got to go? And I think that is
definitely true on it. But I do think you're gonna see teams now because
we're seeing every year now somebody makes some form of early move. I think
you're gonna see that happen more and more often, where teams like, what
are we waiting for? Like, we know what we are. We don't
need to wait till we played fifty games. We know what we are at
forty games, thirty five games. Let's go make the move if it's available
to make now, and then let's reap the benefits for an additional five,
ten, fifteen games. Let's get into the teams that we're most fascinated by
or think might define this deadline. You are the guests, so first licks
go to you. Who's your first team? All right? So this is
a team. I spend way too much time thinking. This is where I
turned into mister salary cap guy. I think more about the Minnesota Timberwolves in
their future than I probably factor in my own kids college plans, which is
bad and just kind of tells you who I am and how bad I am.
So I am endlessly fascinated by what is going to happen with the Timberwolves.
They are they as probably everybody knows, they're in the midst of putting
the final touches on being sold. The ownership group of Mark Laurie and Alex
Rodriguez had to bring in additional partners to get that sale over the line.
So that tells me they're not walking in it like matt Ishpia and like,
ah, you know, billions of dollars to the team, plus half a
billion dollars in payroll in taxes, let's go. I don't think they're there,
like I think they're gonna be more of We got to be a little
bit more cautious here. With that said, they have and I should have
had this already prepped. They have just on the books for next year and
guaranteed money for five players. Who are five good players. It's Rudy Gobert,
Kyl, Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards, Jade McDaniels, and Nas Reed,
all good players. Still only five of them. One hundred and sixty
five million dollars already on the books, the luxury tax line, and we're
just while we've been recording, Sham's just tweeted the cap projection and official cap
projection from the league came in a million dollars lower than it was before.
So that is telling us the league's setting the teams up for uh, we
may not be in as great a shape as we thought going forward. And
I think a lot of that's related to these regional TV deals and some of
the things the League and some other partners are doing to kind of bail teams
out of those. So that means that the but that tax line is gonna
come in even lower. Effectively, they're a tax team with five guys on
the roster because you have to fill out the roster, and they've got a
few other guys who make a little bit less money. So just with those
five guys, the name I didn't mention there is Mike Conley, their starting
point guard, and anybody watches the Wolves knows anytime Mike Conley's not on the
floor, it kind of all goes to crap. They just they don't function
as well. And even Mike Conley, you know, at his advanced stage,
and everything else. I think they're gonna do what they need to do
to re sign him. Unless he's like I'm good, I'm retiring, or
I really want to play my last year somewhere else or whatever. I think
they're gonna do what they need to do to bring him back. That's probably
gonna be fifteen to twenty million dollars. They're gonna be so deep into the
tax without making a move, And I gotta wonder either, I kind of
have them on a clock of now through the next six months. What are
they gonna do between now and the start of the offseason to maybe mitigate that
a little bit? Do they move off of a deal? Because this is
also a team that's not perfect. They could use another bench scorer, they
could use a backup point guard, they could use somebody else to come in
to help lift them. But bore, they locked in. And the last
thing I'll say, even with this new art, the cap and everything's gonna
go down a little. They are also in a position where Anthony Edwards and
Karl Anthony Towns, if they make all NBA, they both jump a salary
tier up. So that number I told you that may that's on the low
side, Like, we estimate that on the low side. So if that
number goes up, yeah, not Now we're already well over the tax line
with only you know, five guys under contract plus a handful of other guys
that are closer to minimum deals. Just I just I think about it all
the time of where is this team going? Because the last thing I'll say,
I don't even have the draft picks to like trade to get out of
a deal if they need to, not that they should need to. Those
guys are all good, they want to. One of those guys, I
should be able to do it without having to give up draft capital. But
even if we're a year or two down the line, it's like, yeah,
this is crazy and towns age poorly and his deals now turned sour.
They don't have the draft picks to even get out of it. So I
am just endlessly fascinated about what happens with them. Yeah. I think one
of the most interesting things about them is the line when someone raises the alarm,
which correctly I think you did, they'll say, well, you know
you have until the end of next year, right if you want to try
to get out of the tax So it's like, oh, the urgency for
this offseason is not really there. We're making too much of this. But
it's like, so, then in this hypothetical, the Timberwolves are probably a
first or second or third seed in the West next year at some point,
and so at that deadline is when they're going to try to dump Carl Anthony
Towns, and like, there's no's that's not a solution and that I mean,
there's no scenario where they do that. So it really is this offseason,
right and Towns probably Towns is the guy that always gets mentioned. But
in terms of the timeline, it's not really true that they have until the
end of next year to make this decision, because it's just so unrealistic to
imagine that they would start trimming massive salary in the middle of next year when
they're probably contending. Right, Yeah, I would be stunned if it is
a hey, we gotta move. Maybe at that point, if let's say
we're we're we're at next year's trade deadline, we're a year from now,
and they're like, man, we we like we can really get by without
doas Red for some reason, and moving dos Reed for a guy who even
makes five million less gets us out of the out of maybe at least out
of the aprons, and we're just like a normal tax team. Maybe Dan,
you could see something like that. But I think it's just gonna have
to be a bigger decision later or they're just gonna have to really say or
you know what, we'll pay it. We'll we'll figure it out. We're
gonna pay pay the taxes. Because I gotta believe someone's having a conversation at
least I hope with the new owners saying, hey, this is the best
literally it's ever been here outside of maybe a couple of age years. You
cannot make your first decision coming in, Hey, we gotta start breaking the
team up because it's too expensive, because you'll you'll lose them. They will
turn on on that ownership group before they've even you know, watched their first
game from from the owners suite. Right. It'll get, you know,
really messy with that. So you gotta be really really careful looking at them
in the context of this deadline. Do you think the impact is if they
actually can acquire someone to upgrade their bench, like a ball handler, shooter
or a point guard, and it's oh no, Javon Carter has money on
the books for next season, so that's a no. But we'll go after
now Burks because he comes off the books after this year. Is that like
the extent of what it might impact. Maybe they do nothing or they're just
not willing to take on anyone. But John Carter doesn't make a lot of
money, he'd probably work on this roster. But no, No, he's
on the books for next year, and like, we just can't. We
can't have that right now. Yeah, it might be you may be looking
at that. I personally think that's where everybody has Kyle Lowry peg to Philadelphia.
I don't know that Philadelphia needs him quite quite Frankly, I think they've
got enough at the guard spot already between Maxie Melton and Beverly. Like,
I just I don't see it, like why they would need Kyle lower Bey
on. It's a cool story, right, He's a Philly guy, so
going home, I think he would fit way better in Minnesota and be a
way more important piece there because now Conley figure, by the time he gets
a playoff, time you split the forty eight minutes between those two guys.
If I'm Chris Finch, I'm like, all right, good, that's I
never need to think about that position, right, I'm good. I have
got my minutes and lowery in a fifteen minute a night, twenty minute a
night, backup role on a playoff team, probably mostly against second units.
You're probably fine, right, Like, like, let him kind of do
his thing. He's over matched as a starter now. He slipped too much
defensively, I think to really have an impact there. But just somebody,
just a steady hand who can be like, whoa chilln thirty foot jumpers with
sixteen seconds on the shot clock. Next play, we're gonna actually run something,
get it inside, Like that's what you need. When Conley's out of
the game and they just don't have it, it gets too messy. I
love Jordan McLoughlin for what he is, but Jordan McLoughlin's not telling Anthony Edwards
breathe, man, give me the ball and go like this play you spot
up Like we got to get the biggest touch go. Bears are on the
floor twelve times in a row without touching it, Like that's what Conley does
for them. Getting one more guy so and that would be the benefit of
your signing him as a buyout guy for the rest of the year and then
you kind of rolled that decision into next year that that's perfectly fine. So
yeah, it's a very interesting spot for how they treat the trade deadline because
they just don't I just don't know that they're gonna be in a spot where,
to your point, like Davon Carter would be really good for them.
I just don't know that they're gonna want to take on seven million dollars on
next year's books if they don't have to grant who's your first team? Well
that was I like that starting with the Wolves as a macro concern, I'm
going Atlanta and sort of more of a micro sense, and that's focusing specifically
on de Jonte Murray, who I just it seems to me and I've gone
back and forth on this, Dan, you and I have talked about it.
It seems like he is sort of the you know, should be the
most likely big name to be traded, just because of all the ridiculous adjectives
we keep hearing describing Zach Lavine's level of trade interest around the league. Baron
Bridge, we like to add our own desolate healthscape that. But so Murray
just profiles, I mean, is a cleaner fit almost anywhere. He can
play the one, he can play the two. I think it's difficult to
judge, like how well he'll fit with certain other guards based on how he
fits with Trey Young, because that's just a that's a big ask and it's
a strange fit in general. Four years, one hundred and fourteen million extension
starts next year. So he seems like someone that there should be several suitors
for because of his sort of plug and play status, because of his reasonable
deal, because Atlanta seems very very likely to move him and maybe some other
guys we can talk about as we get further into the Hawks. And I
thought initially that, well, that means that Atlanta is going to be able
to just haul in a mint for him, because you'll have multiple suitors,
you can, you know, play them against each other. You're going to
drive up offers. The fact that he hasn't moved and the fact that we
haven't heard reports of such and such team as in discussions with you know,
involving two firsts and something else, makes me think I was wrong about that
because I just I can't I just don't understand how, because what seems to
be happening is teams are maybe low balling Atlanta, and I didn't see that
as as like even remotely possible, just based on the market circumstances. So
what the what the Hawks do with Murray and to a lesser extent, guys
like DeAndre Hunter, Clink Cappella, Boga, Bogdanovich, AJ Griffin even,
you know, what they do with those guys is really interesting to me and
could kind of dictate the deadline to some extent, because all those guys could
be fits and help out someplace. But Murray, to me, is most
fascinating because I was just dead certain that this guy was gonna maybe you wouldn't
get the Hawks back everything they gave up to get him in terms of pick
equity and things like that. But I thought for sure that the Hawks were
just in a really strong negotiating precision, lots of leverage. We don't have
to do anything because he's under contract, so you let's let's hear it.
What's your best offer? And I thought they'd get pretty good ones, and
so far it doesn't seem like that's happening. So that's just maybe the most
interesting. I don't know that that's what I'm kind of watching for just to
see, like how off was I engaging to John stay Murray's market and what
does that mean for the rest of the trade deadline. So the Hawks are
really an interesting teams even though there's no question about are they buying are they
selling that they seem very clearly ready to sell. I just I'm curious how
they go about that and what they get in that sales process. Because I
was typing a minute ago, everybody's now reacting to this whole salary cap is
coming in lower stuff. It's funny how a million dollars than the NBA Twitter
Miami just not but like it's spat track. That's that's a lot of work
for us to do. You'd be surprised. I think grant for you the
I don't know that you're is off as you maybe are feeling like you might
be on on Mariy's trade value. I think what it is is a week,
two weeks, three weeks out from the deadline. I don't need to
give you two first round picks. Maybe maybe desperation increases, Maybe the Lakers
lose a couple more games and they find a way to get something else to
Atlanta. Maybe another team is like, all right, you're holding firm,
right, we'll throw in that other pick. Uh. There. They're certainly
not they had this these designs on. We'll get back what we gave up
for him. That's I don't think that's going to happen. I think that's
gone out the window now. I think there is still the chance of,
hey, give us a balancing trade where maybe we get somebody who's much more
of a two that can come in here and playoff ball, and we get
a couple of picks that we can at least sell. Hey, we got
two first round picks, even if one of those is a little bit more.
One of those that's yeah, it's a first, but is it really
going to be a first? You're ever going to see it as a first?
Is it? It's almost kind of like the ones in Deannas and Toronto
where it's like, yeah, it's a first, but like it's probably gonna
be like the twenty eighth. Yeah, if they get it, it'll be
in the twenties. Yeah. So that's where I think maybe that's the way
this kind of goes for Atlanta. But I think the Hawks are being smart
on they are holding the approach of we don't have to trade him, like
we can still turn around and trade him this summer if we want to,
if we want to do that instead, like we we don't need to do
anything today. So I think they they're taking the right approach of we don't
need to take a bad deal just because we have to get him out of
the building. And I'm going to keep using them as example. This is
not Pascal Siakam, where he is a understricted free agent next summer. N'sy
very likely he's gonna walk had Marii not extended his contract day, I think
they'd before more motivated to make a deal because we don't want to lose them
for nothing. But as the stands right now, I think Atlanta rightly so
it was like, hey, you may want a trade. And this probably
spills into the zach Lavine territory a little bit too. We don't need to
make a deal, We don't have to do anything. We have the control
here. You you don't have the control. Into Murray's credit, he's shown
up and he just plays right. He hasn't made a big deal out of
this. I think it was almost like shortly after he had two game winners
in a row, So it's like, clearly the guy's still out there doing
this thing and trying. So I think that's important to note in all this
too, is you know, everybody's acting, you know, shocking for the
NBA. Everybody's acting like reasonable adults here, not being morons where it's like
I'm openly quitting on you, so now you have to trade me or not
play me. They're also interesting because it's so what's the extent to which they
will sell? Because everyone's talking about Murray? But what does this mean for
blud Back Magdanovich? What does it mean for Grant mentioned DeAndre Hunter? What
even is his market? Can you find someone who likes Clink Capella? You
have Sadig who they valued pretty highly based off the second round equity that that
entire like eighty team trade or whatever it ended up being cost. So it's
just like what who else on this roster could go? And it seems like
Trey Young and Jalen Johnson are are off limits, which I guess makes some
sense. I'd probably be more callous and be like, what's your best offer
for Trey Young? And maybe they don't want to do that because they be
embarrassed, like what the best offer for Trey Young might be it at this
point, so I'm with them. I'm just curious to see what's the even
if they don't move Murray. They're a team that pretends like they don't care
about how much their payroll is, but they care about how much their payroll
is, and so they're gonna do something even if it's not Murray. And
so even if it is Murray's, well, who are the other dominoes that
are gonna fall and what can they get? Like as DeAndre Hunter worth a
first round pick to one team, there are people who think is contract terrible.
There are people who think he's undervalued. They have so many divisive players,
like even right down to Clint Capella right now, like when Yakakungu's kind
of trickled his way into like the speculation factory, And that's like kind of
another question where normally these guys who signed extensions, it's, oh, they're
not gonna be moved, But when their extensions are so reasonable, like him
and Denny Avvida, and there's the more flexible salary matching rules for teams below
Vapri, and it's like, well, I could someone come in there,
and see what they could do. So that's what I'm also curious about with
Atlanta. It's like, does anything happen beyond Murray and what is it?
Yeah, and you've also got like, in the case of Washington, they're
sitting on a couple of pretty good sized trade exceptions too, so they if
even in the the imbalanced type of trade that it causes in a poison pill
situation, when you're sitting on a trade exception or in the old world,
if you were sitting on cap space, you could make the imbalanced trades one
way and the other way because it was easier to take back more money because
you were just you had the adat ability. Atlanta, it's a little harder
to just take back more money just because of where they're sitting. But yeah,
I mean they've made it pretty clear, don't call on Tray Young,
at least publicly. You better not tell people you called, because we're just
gonna say we shot it down and then we don't want it. We have
no interest in moving Jalen Johnson and we don't really of any really interest in
moving on Yaka kong Wu. But for me, I'd also be like,
but you also seemingly have no interest in starting on Yaka kong Wu. So
we're going on with this conversation. My guess is what we're gonna hear is
I think I don't know that Tree Young is like franchise Lifetime Atlanta Hawk.
I think there's a chance he gets moved sometime within the next year or two.
It's not gonna be in the next week and a half before the trade
deadline. I feel very confident in that. But I think let's say he
gets moved this summer. By next deadline, I bet you this story comes
out. Hey, at the twenty twenty four trade deadline, that's when the
idea was planted. You know, a team called and said, hey,
we really like trade Tree Young and maybe maybe it is a situation you talked
about it before. We don't have the picks today, but in June July,
we'll have three picks we can offer, we'll have four picks. We
have this that we can offer instead. And I think that's what we're gonna
hear. Is every so often you get one of those where it's yeah,
the team's talk, it just wasn't the right time then, But that was
where the discussion started and whether that's like this summer or next summer. I
bet it'll be written like the conversation started way earlier than anybody thought it was
started, just because I think that's where Atlanta's eventually enough to go with this.
If they if they can't find the right mix, my guess is they're
gonna give it one more go, Like, let's rebalance this roster a little
bit of trade a few guys and try to get the right guys around Tree
Young and move forward, and then we'll just kind of see where it is
from there. Since we just spent so much time on to glamour markets like
Minnesota and Atlanta, I'm I'm gonna take us to a smaller one in New
York. The Knicks were fascinating to me for obvious reasons beforehands because of their
assets, and they've also been just dating back a few years. Some of
one of the teams this front office, which probably hasn't gotten enough credit for
it, that are championing the rolling over these salary slots so that we can
use them in future trades. How do we upgrade? Yeah, Evanfornia can
be on the books next year if we want them, But he has no
trade value, and so I was interested in that to begin with. But
now the Julius Randall shoulder injury gonna miss probably at least a month, and
we're never gonna know the real timeline until he's back. We've kind of they're
just gonna obtuscate it like they have with Mitchell Robinson. Does that increase their
urgency when they already had a need for like some extra guard or ball handling
depth after losing a manual quickly? And then what are they prepared to do?
Because like you know, to go back to de Jontay Murray, they've
been linked to him. And when you're talking about a package of well,
two picks, maybe one of them is not great, and you get another
guy who could play off the ball you just described, like the Knicks picks
and Quenton Grimes and then Salary and you're there. I know people aren't crazy
about that fit, but for them specifically, they're one of the teams.
That leads me into the question of, well, even if Jontay Murray's not
the perfect fit, given what you need right now and given what his value
might be in a subsequent trade, does it actually make sense to have him
rather than let's say Quenton Grimes and one of these good first round picks,
and then like another one of the whatever, whether it's Washington or Detroit which
may may never convey, or are they gonna try, Like I don't see
the player who's out there. They're not gonna be a zach Lavine team,
and by all accounts, it doesn't look like Lowry market In or McHale Bridges,
who I love in New York and basically everywhere else, would actually be
available. But does this injury for Randall, coupled with the Robinson stuff,
coupled with how good they've been playing, push them to be more aggressive than
we were kind of thinking. They just feel kind of like a wild card
that we know they're not gonna sell, but they could go in a bunch
of different directions. And it does feel like even though they already maybe if
they made their biggest trade already okay, fine, like they're still gonna do
something that has an impact one on this season, but two on the blockbuster.
Everybody is waiting for them to pull off over the summer or in future
seasons or off seasons to upgrade that Evan Fournier salary slot. And so I'm
so very curious to see what type of player they target there, who's it
gonna be, and how high do they ultimately aim, because I do think
the Randall injury specifically, even though they expect to be back, shoulders are
those are fickle. The dislocated shoulder, that's a fickle injury to come back
from. We don't know what his mobility he's gonna look like a range of
motion from there. I'm just so curious to see how they handle this deadline.
Yeah, I mean those shoulder things too, can be something where he's
fine and then all of a sudden it's out again, and then you're you're
hurting with that, right, So I think that becomes kind of one one
issue there. I think you brought up a lot of things with the knicks
have become interesting. I threw out to a friend of mine and I said,
would you think about doing something like forty eight grimes and maybe a pick
or two picks or whatever it needs to be to go get Jeante Murray?
But say, hey, now we need Sadiq be too, because we got
to get through the next three weeks, month or whatever. We need one
more forward in the rotation. We just need to need one other bigger guy
because I also am very curious, like it sounds like this ogn and Obi
elbow thing is not a big deal, but if that becomes a big deal,
all right, what are we doing here? I know they signed TODJ.
Gibson again to another ten day contract, but like, come on,
like like let's get serious here right, Like by the way, when Woes
includes an explanation point in the in the news, yeah, yeah, it's
it is like, are we really gonna play Isaiah Heart and Stein and four
guards like all the time? Like like Josh Hart, I mean he openedly
like I'm not I'm not making it up. It was funny the way you
put it. But he's like, yeah, unless I can gain forty five
pounds of muscle, like right, So it's like it's totally true. So
I think there is a point where I think priorities maybe have changed now,
right, instead of a are we going to get another wing ball handl or
creator in here? We maybe now it is all right, now we're in
the forward market. Who's available? You know it is a guy like well
Magdonovitch Now way more interesting because we could use somebody like that just to kind
of plug in, there's a guy like PJ. Washington who's on an extremely
acquireable contract. Could we go there? The Miles Bridge stuff is just so
weird. I don't. It just doesn't seem like a move they'd make.
But could that be a way you go just get another forward sized player in
the mix there, because to me, it's they can get by if in
and nobody's okay, they're gonna be okay to get by for the next three
four weeks whatever it is. But then my question becomes, if this becomes
a thing like Paul George's did, where it is like always okay, oh
it's out again, and now he's out again for another if that becomes a
thing now all of a sudden, it's like if this happens in game three
of a playoff series, like where you're going, you know, and now
that's where you start to run out of options and it gets really messy.
So I think if you could get somebody who's either on a really good,
good, friendly contract, maybe you go that way. But yeah, I
mean, the Knicks are people say this to me all the time. With
Fournia, they well, they got to do something right because because otherwise they're
no way they're gonna pick up his option if they trade them. I think
they are picking up his option and then you roll them into a trade asset
all the way a three year from now, So you're really on a one
year o'clock with fourty eight, right like you're you're through now through next next
trade deadline. That that's the way I'd be thinking about his uh specific contract,
and that that feels tough to me because I'd like to see Evan Fortier
go somewhere and get a chance again because I just don't believe he's completely done
as a basketball player. I just find that hard to believe. And it's
clearly it's never gonna happen in New York for him. So that becomes like,
yo, yeah, where do we go you know with this stuff?
So yeah, the next again, another team, really really interesting team there
because I think the Knicks, the Calves, the Pacers, the Heat,
the leaving somebody out in the east in that discussion. Sure, yeah,
yeah, I like that. And uh, you know, as my dad
taught me a lot as a kid, wishing one hand and uh crap in
the other and see which fills up faster. Yeah, they can like whatever
they like the good luck on that one. So I think it's you know,
for me, it becomes you know, where, where are we going?
You know what with this? You know what? What are we kind
of to do them with a couple of these teams, because I just think
it's a you know, a spot where they're all really close and I know
everybody's like, yeah, but are they close enough to be Orlando? Of
course, my adopted hometown team is the one I left out. It is
the uh everybody's like, yeah, what are they gonna beat Boston? They're
gonna beat Milwaukee? Can they really be Philadelphia? Well, Philly? Who
knows where they'll be at health wise by the time we get to the playoffs
And then all you are is Joela or not joelan me. But if Giannis
has an injury, or Middleton or Dame come playoff time, or Porzingis is
down, all of a sudden, now it's a much more winnable series than
you were in. And you kind of it yourselves too, without getting crazy,
kind of put yourself in the best position to beat one of those teams.
If you can't, Keith, who's your second team? Oh sorry,
Grant, no, go ahead, that's enough Nicks. I want to hear
Keith's second team. It was actually a oddly enough even though I forgot him.
It is Orlando, because I think for the Magic we're at a very
interesting point for them franchise wise where it is. I tweeted this after they
lost the game to the Grizzlies a few nights ago. Then they had a
good win over the Heat, I believe it was, and then they had
a bad not a bad loss, but a loss the last sight to Dallas,
where they just they fell apart, and they fell apart in the most
predictable way, which is the MAVs are able to kind of clamp down and
get stops when they needed against Polo and Franz, and everything's just so hard
for them otherwise. So I think the Magic need to have a very honest
conversation, which I assume they have had, of what are we trying to
be? Are we content enough to have made our step forward? We're a
playing team, and maybe we win in the playing tournament. We get knocked
out in the first round of the playoffs, and that was enough of the
step forward for us this year. We'll do our bigger stuff this summer and
we'll figure it out. Orre they a team that says we want more.
We can be as good as the Knicks, the Calves, the Pacers.
We can be in that group that's competing, you know, in the four
to you know six range, in the assured playoff spots and maybe put ourselves
in a position to win a first round playoff series. Because if they want
to do that, they have every tool imaginable to go make that happen.
And I'm not saying this is the guy, because they don't think this is
the right guy for them, But if they're like, go get Zach Levine,
they can match the salary really easy with pretty much whatever way the Bulls
want to match the salary. And they've got draft picks that they could send
that way to say, hey, here's a pick or two and let's make
it happening. Off we go. Or if some other guy becomes available,
like de Jeante Marie guy they should be going after. Just give them one
more on ball creator, ideally a playmaker versus just a pure scorer who can
just make life easier on following fronds instead of them having to run everything where
they set themselves up or they set each other up one more guy who can
take the reps of all right, hey, I got you, Like you're
gonna set the screen and roll versus you have to be the pick and roll
ball handler and then choot a contest jumper or work really hard, lay clock,
plow into the paint kind of plays. I think Orlando is just in
a really interesting spot because you've got Marco Folts on an expiring deal. You've
got Jonathan Isaac on a pseudo expiring contract because he's not guaranteed for next year.
You have Gary Harris on an expiring contract. There's a lot of directions
this team could go, and they could even get involved on a team like
Chicago, where it is, hey, we want this guy, and we're
gonna send you guys who can still help you this year, Like we could
send you Gary Harris and Marco Foltz who could Folts is a little different because
the Bulls have a ton of other ball handlers, but like, we can
send you guys who could help you this year. Be a good team,
and you give us a guy who can really help help us moving forward.
So that's I just think Orlando again one of those teams where it's like,
where are they gonna go with this because it's if it's not now, it's
gonna be this summer. Because if it's not, you're gonna be starting to
get really expensive with retaining your own guys pretty soon. And then all of
a sudden, you might have missed your window to be to add to this
roster and pull yourself in a different place. And then Naple comes a tricky
question. You really have to have your what's kind of our three year plan
in mind right starting today all the way through the next few years. Yeah,
it does feel like a timing question for them, and you you alluded
to this like you could. It's not an asset question. If you want
Dedonte Murray and you're the magic, you can do that. That's that's easy.
The question I think for them is one, is there something better for
us out there if we wait until the summer? And two, like,
what is the value add in addition to just like we'd like to level up
of having Murray in the fold for the balance of this year to sort of
see what that looks like with their you know, their forward driven offense otherwise,
So that that is actually a theme I think that comes up a lot
for you know, We'll get to some of these teams, I'm sure,
but it's just like is now the right time. It's not a question of
can we do this or can't we or like do we have the assets?
It's if you're the thunder, do we do we do it now and we
should probably just get to them next. That was gonna be my next team
anyway, but you know it's always and the Lakers in Dallas are actually kind
of weird flip sides of this, where it's like do we do it now
or do we wait until we have up to three first to trade in the
summer? And what's the cost of not doing it now? Does that mean
Lebron? You know, we lose this is the last year of Lebron finally,
and then we waited and now we can't anchor a team anymore. Like
that's that's a real through line of this deadline to me is there's several teams,
and several of them are young teams that have the ability to get better
if they want to. I mean, just throw Utah in there too,
if you want their five hundred team that could get way better if they wanted
to. Is it is now the time? And that gets into like a
deep philosophical question about like how like how are you, like, what's your
plan for this team? Like what when do you want to be good?
Do you think it's worth trying to be good now because tomorrow's not guaranteed?
Like I just I think that's a real you know, a real theme.
And so I guess that's just to jump to the thunder Dan, unless you
had magic thoughts, they should absolutely trade for Dejontay Murray. That is my
that's my Orlando. Yeah, why not. I think I think it makes
sense and give up several high end assets so that I'm justified in thinking that.
That's what Atlanta, That's what the deadline's about, is just making sure
you're correct, right, That's what That's what we're in it for the Thunder
though, Like you know, if you follow the league at all, it's
like they've got this treasure trove of assets they've you know, already they sort
of have too many picks and young players because they came into this season with
like twenty five guys on the active roster and had to just start trimming,
so you can't use all those first. They have a fairly clear need to
me for you know, a bruising four or five that can play with chet
that you might have in your eight man playoff rotation might finish games for you
potentially. And it's just and you've got the Giddy, you know, if
you if there's a team out there that's more convinced that Josh Giddy is a
cornerstone piece than the thunder are, can I for a second, please Josh
Giddy. The way that teams are defending him like to have to worry about
the playoffs, right and a lot of thunder Fens think they don't need anything
and they could win the title right now. The fact that you're just comfortable
putting bigs on him, letting him do whatever, that's gonna be a problem
in the playoffs where you mentioned kind of this bruising four or five, I'm
like, they need to upgrade the Josh Giddy spot, to have that another
playoff ball handler that gives them some jiggle and joggle that'll be defended. And
maybe that's Case and Wallace long term, but it's not necessarily Case Wallace right
now. I'm just I know he's had on the court like better stretches of
late. I'm just they need to move on from the Josh maybe not Josh
Giddy himself, Like they need to upgrade the Josh Giddy spot if they're going
to make the most is just where I'm at with this window. I'm not
saying it this season, but that's I guess that's like I tend not to
be too inflammatory, but that's like a hill I'm prepared to get stabbed on.
It's the wrong team for him, it's not. I mean, that's
what that's why. I mean, there's another team that could justify giving him
the ball just a lot more, and that negates some of the you know,
the detriment of his non shooting and and it makes his poor defense hurt
a little less because oh, he's on the ball and he's doing stuff that
we need him to do as a facilitator, which I think, like there's
a world where he succeeds. You know, he's just like a bigger Ricky
Rubio or something like he he can be something like that for someone, but
it will not happen for the Thunder. And so like that's what they're not
only pick wise, are the Thunder asset rich? They do have a young
he's so young still you forget because he's been in the league a little while.
There's another team out there that could say, like, this guy was
a high lottery pick that has been productive box score wise, and we can
see the outlines of what kind of player he could be. So the Thunder
just, you know, other than having like a huge salary to trade that
they don't care about, like they have everything they need. Sure, yeah,
that's another thing they've got money to get off of. So the question
really just is for them, like do we do it now right? Because
and that ties into well, what does that even mean? Is that Lori
Markinen, who's probably not available, but like the Thunder could make it,
could make him available if they wanted. The Thunder have the assets to make
anyone wanted. So I don't have an answer. I think I'm probably if
someone called about Giddy and I could move him for a piece that made more
sense, I would do that in a heartbeat. But I don't know if
it's the time. Even though we just talked about like tidle windows, which
the Thunders seems open at least open ish, they're not gonna last, you
know, it's not gonna be twenty twenty nine. And we're saying like Oh,
we're just getting into it, you know, Like that's not how it
works. So I'm just really curious about what they do because they've been hoarding
these picks for something, and it's not to just draft a bunch of guys
because you sort of that's not a real way to build a team. You
can't sort of do that. Yeah, you're on it, great, you
you can't. Right, you're running out of ross response like that. That's
the thing, And that's the thing some teams are they're waiting the thunder out
on a little bit where it is, you know, let's go. And
they had a challenge when they tried to make trades in a few pass drafts.
Now they've been able to do it in others as other teams have moved
off picks and have been like, okay, yeah, we could use some
extras where they try the bowl teams over with offers and teams are like,
then we're just gonna be in the same spot you're in, Like, we
don't need your seven first round picks for to move up five spots because then
why what are we gonna do with them? So that's one challenge. But
now I think you have enough teams where it is like, holy cow,
we're we're pick poor, like we could use a couple of picks back For
me, it's I know you guys focused on Josh Gideon, and I'm not.
I'm not against that because I think you're absolutely right, like the way
Boston guarded him with Porzengis, or better put, didn't guard him and just
let Porzengis float. Yeah, Giddy shot well and was a big part of
them winning that game. But they think if you're a playoff team, you're
gonna say, okay, do it, do it three more times and be
right like like do it that way, and I think teams are like,
it's just not gonna happen. I'm also a little bit there with lou Dort
too. I don't both those guys, by the way, weren't really closing.
They weren't there for closing come against Minnesota on that night, and that's
why I'm a little bit there with him. I think, you know,
one of the two is the spot you upgrade on. That doesn't mean one
of the two is traded to me. I think you have other spots,
and you move the other one to a bench role where they could thrive in
a lot of ways. I think if you move Giddy to a bench role,
I think then now all of a sudden, now we have that extra
ball handler on the bench. We've got somebody who could come in play behind
Shay and j Dubb and we're good. Right, We're set. There is
our three ball handler rotation. We could kind of leave caseon Wallace in the
secondary creator role that he's more pretty comfortable with a man instead of force fitting
him into something or over extending. Shay gives us Alexander. So I think
you're in a good place there. I still hold go get another big,
but for me, it has to be a four or five that can play
with Chet and back him up. The guy I'm kind of looking at for
them. And it sounds weird because he finally get traded after like seven years
of trade speculation. Is John Collins. John Collins is shooting the ball well
again. Whatever was going on with his finger seems to be solved, or
he's at least figured out, all right, this is how I now have
to shoot. It's making shots. He's been playing the five almost exclusively for
Utah, but we know we can play the four. You slot him in
there. You could go get him. I would assume relatively easily Berton's and
a pick or two to Danny Ainge and you're good, and then slought him
in whether you make him your starter or you play him as a high minutes
backup guy there. But he can play with Holme Grin, he could play
behind home Grin. And I think you're in a really good, good space
if that's what it is. I think marketing, I just think that's that's
a little too pie in the sky. I don't know that you're getting to
where the jazz. I think the jazz are. They're right on the tipping
point of I We've got a lot of draft at Equity already, Like we
would have to get Case and Wallace plus somebody else. You know, I
would be saying I need Wallace Giddy and Jalen Williams is the big one,
Like I need those three guys. And then in the end we could talk
matching salary and draft picks. And if I'm the thunder, I'm saying then
no, right, that starts to get too far the other way. So
I don't know for marketing, but I feel like for Collins that would make
a lot of sense. Yeah, And also then you roll over the Breton
salary slot and to a player who's more compelling theoretically in future offers at least,
like John Collins is just not gonna have a ton of trade value,
but he's gonna be viewed as more valuable than Burton's. Speaking of John Collins's
current team, I have the Jazz on here because there, I mean,
you talk about a team that could do anything. And I mean I do
sometimes feel not to call out all jazz fans, but I do feel like
some or many Utah Jazz fans underestimate the degree to which Danny Ainge does not
give a fuck. And just like we saw it kind of last year where
they were his plucky team and he tore it down anyway near the trade deadline,
and some people would argue in retrospect he didn't do it soon enough because
kind of took you out of like the super you know, I love who
they ended up with in the draft, and Tayler Hendrix and also Cante George,
but like you kind of exited the Victor Wambyama sweepstakes and lowy marketing is
great, but he's not Victor one Miyama, And so no, I do
not expect them to trade lowry market in. I think just because of how
good of a story it's been, I would not trade lowry market in.
To me, that's not often. He wants to be there. That's something
you have to factor in too. He's very happy there, especially there.
Right, it's not like Utah is gonna, Oh we got all this cap
space down the line, we're gonna be free agent players, like I will
say. I will say Utah is a more desirable free agent destination than a
lot of people think for two reasons. One, when they're in Utah,
people leave them alone, like it's a it's a smaller place, it's pretty
quiet. If you're the kind of guy who's like, hey, when i'm
home, I want to be home and not being bothered. I want to
be able to go out to eat and not get bothered every two seconds.
People like that. It's also for the guys who are like, yeah,
but it's Utah has nothing to do. The minute they find out, oh
it's like a thirty minute plane or helicopter ride to Las Vegas. Yeah,
let's go like we're fine, Like let's you know, let's make it happen.
Like because trust me, if you go back. I'm not going to
name names. You could go back and look through some of the free agents
the Jazz are signed and it's like, surprise that guy went there. And
then when you factor in, oh Las Vegas is very close, there's a
few guys you'd be like, Okay, I get it now, I kind
of understand. James just controlled my brain for the next two hours. Back
about Jazz signings, You'll you'll figure them out pretty much. So what I
would say, though, is with this with with with the Jazz to Dan
to your point about Danny Ainge doesn't care at all. They could be in
the play in tournament. And if what he believes is the right thing to
put the Jazz closer to a title is to trade a guy, he will
trade the guy and they kick You'll punt on this year and say it is
what it is, Hey, we made the best move for the Jazz to
win a title at some point like that is his sole goal. Like it's
People laugh about the whole Danny Ainge because part of it is he loved to
tell the media directly, and then I think by the end of his Celtics
tenure he was leaning into the jokes of all, we got really close,
right, but then it was like we got really close, but he wasn't
even saying names. It was just like we got really close on some stuff
and it was like, oh, okay, he's now he knows like he's
he's a pretty self aware guy. He knows the joke of that. But
it was I think it was for a while there was, but it wasn't
gonna make it. It wasn't trading this player, this player in three draft
picks wasn't gonna put us closer to a title. Yeah, might have made
us a playoff team, but that's not what we want to be. And
quite frankly, I think he's been proven to be right. Celtics are title
contenders every year because he didn't trade Jason Tatum Jaylen Brown. Everything else is
ancillary to that, like Brad Stevens is built on that with other really good
moves for guys and really flush out the roster. But it was ages steadfastness
to say not trading the picks that became Tatum and Brown, Nor am I
trading Tatum and Brown the players that that's what's really launched Boston and the title
contention more than anything else. And they've been there now for what we run
like year four or five of them sitting there. They've broken through yet,
No, they haven't, but it's still something to be said for you're right
there every single year, and that leads. You know, we've mentioned marketing
is really the only player. We mentioned it in Collins, but like this
whole discussion we're having is Chris Dunn, Fontechio, Colin Sexton, Jordan Clarkson,
Like those are the names the Jazz were going. And look, they
haven't necessarily made it easy to figure out what they're doing because they go through
this scorching hot stretch and now they've lost what is it four of four or
five or yeah, four six, and so like they've come back down to
earth a little bit and the West is still a bear. But you could
also kind of see them. I think people would expect them to sell,
but I could also kind of see them. They have all these assets where
if they rolled some of them into a Dejonte Murray because they have so many
picks, and they said, well, he's gonna be more valuable to us,
both on the court and as a trade asset than maybe some of these
picks that we have it's something that helps us now and maybe we go after
the plane and we don't really care about this draft anyway, since so many
people seem so low on it, it feels like even I wouldn't predict it.
But they are a team that has been at least shown enough glimpses where
oh, could they make kind of like a you know, aim for like
a smallish or medium sized buy now play that they think still sets them up
well for future trades without harshing their their rebuild or their reset. And so
that's why they're so fascinating to me is that they literally everyone could just expect,
Oh, Danny Age is gonna, you know, trade all the guys
that I just named her a few of them. What if he just goes
out there and consolidates a little bit like that is something that's on the table
for them. Yep, yep, yeah, I yeah, there's it.
There are things they would do where I, like, holy COLI did not
expect it. But it would also not be surprised. I know that maybe
sounds like it's contradictory, but it wouldn't be surprised if if we got the
WOJ bomb in the next ten minutes, that they traded Laurie Mark. I'm
not gonna be like, well, I never saw that coming, Like it's
any age, like if he believes whatever he got for him is better,
Like, yeah, it's it's it's surprising, but I'm not gonna be shocked
by it. I'm not gonna be like, well, that is completely like
came out of nowhere, just because it's that's what he does. Let's each
see if we could do one more team, if you don't mind sticking around
with us Keith and who would that be for you? Your third team?
Yeah? I think so. I I played, you know, in the
small market sandbox here and with my first couple, I'll go a big one.
It's the Warriors, Like, what are they gonna do? I just
are they gonna try to load up and try to salvage this and make a
run. Are they going to trade guys away to try to clear up the
books a little bit down the line? Can can you get off Wiggins contract?
You know? Is that? Is that something they might be able to
figure out? Uh? Chris Paul, It's always seemed highly unlikely to me.
Chris Paul made it through the trade deadline in d If he does he's
gonna get moved this summer, if not just flat out waved. So those
become the things where I look like, where are they going with that?
And like nobody is out and out said they're open to trading Klay Thompson.
But every time one of the like insiders talks about the Warriors, they always
throw in at the end and maybe they could look at trading Klay Thompson or
some version of that. I still find that hard to believe. I just
I don't I don't think Curry, Green and Thompson get broken up yet.
I think you almost kind of let them decide one that's gonna happen. Draymond's
probably the one where maybe they do it. Let's say, is another incident.
Maybe then they're like, car, we're done now. But by then
maybe the league like now we're done. Like that's how it sends, but
it is I think, you know, I said this ad nauseum. The
only you ever trade Stephen curryes if he walks on the door and says I
want to trade, like that never happens. Like I don't care if you
win twenty five games for the next three seasons, you you just see it
out as you know, here's what it is. It's just you know,
I would never do that. Now. I also do believe if he came
in and said, hey, I want to trade, I think he kind
of owe it to him to at least see right, like a right,
can we find something that works because of everything he's meant to the franchise.
But I just it feels like something's gonna happen there, like like something.
I just I just can't see them going through the trade deadline saying well,
yeah, let's just play it out with this group the rest of the way.
I feel like something's gonna happen with the Warriors. Grant No, I
mean I feel like I've talked about it. Just I think it's I think
you're right, Keith. I think it does feel like something has to happen.
If it's anything beyond Chris Paul moving and like maybe Moses Moody or someone
like that far down the depth chart, I'd be surprised, just because all
these guys, like the Thompson thing, I would be so stunned for so
many reasons if he were traded. One, he makes forty three million dollars,
and like, who's looking to get that on the books. You know,
even if it is expiring, who's got the money to send back that
the Warriors would want to take on for that? And you've got the sentimental
side of things. The Wiggins thing is like, if you trade Wiggins,
all you're doing is trying to trade him for someone who's as good as Andrew
Wiggins was two years ago, Like, and good luck doing that for a
number that is close to his salary number, which, like at the time
he signed that extension, everybody thought, what a deal this guy was.
You know, this guy was just the second best player in the finals.
Like that's phenomenal, So I think, and I also really like, at
the very bottom of it all, there's not a trade out there that gets
the Warriors, who are nineteen and twenty four into like upper tier title contention.
So what's the point? Like what that? That's the thing for me
is there's if circumstances change and some crazy name becomes available, and you know
there's a pathway to do to a big trade for them. Okay, sure,
but like zech if you could put Zach Levine on this roster and give
nothing else up, you are still not in that conversation as a like True
Blue title contender, and ditto for anyone else that's available. So for them
to you know, consider moving someone like Jonathan kaminga who Dan, I've been
vindicated, he's on fire these last several games. Like that's just not that's
a non starter at this point. They're confusing, specifically because of what both
of you is mentioned, you know, keep talking about like the salary implications
and some of the players that you know they're kind of fading and what do
they look like long term? And then you're mentioning, well, there's no
one on the market that's just going to resurrect their title window anyway. And
then even if there was, they're not gonna have the best offer, and
so it kind of behooves them to their offer doesn't get a ton better in
the summer. But you could at least play around with a twenty thirty one
swap since they TechEd or and also you have the twenty thirty pick that's like
fake to Washington. You could trade the you know, the second two thirds
of that whatever it works, that one a little bit. It could work.
Yeah, that's what we need to that's what we need to call it
now, Keith. It is right, So I don't know what very close
term let's be the credit where credits do uh? And so like I don't
know what they do beyond like if they make a move like Keith, like
what is it to do? And the other thing is like I think they're
they probably still believe internally, you know Grant's point about Kamingo being on fire.
Our whole thing has been, well, you can't play Wiggins and Kminga
together, but when you play Wiggins and Kminga together with Draymond Green, it's
a small sample size. They're blasting opponents right now, So there's probably this
internal belief like, well, what are we gonna go out? Who are
we gonna go out? Like even at de Jonte Murray, I actually think
we've mentioned like eighty times he does intrigue me for this roster, especially if
you can attach one of like the others in Atlanta of his Bogdanovitch or even
Hunter, of who I'm higher on than most, But like, what is
that gonna realistically do for them? It just feels like is there one if
they're actually making a move, Keith, what would you expect it to be?
I know it's Chris Paul but is it just kind of cleaning up their
cap sheet? And but two is it like do we kind of just expect
them to do nothing at this point? Yeah, So I think there's there's
lots unpack there. I'll try to do it really quickly. I think the
runs the Lakers and the Heat made last year have people's like whole like perception
is just off. Like I just think people are in a weird spot now
where it's like, well, they did it, so why not us?
And for me it's like, all right, that happened, Like that's not
gonna happen every year, Like what are we doing? So that's part one
of that. I think part two is I do think the more likely trade
is clean up the books trade, like Chris Paul's coming off the books pretty
much no matter what next year Wiggins. If we can get out of Wiggins
deal, let's do it, Like if we can do it without having to
get crazy, like, let's get out of that that contract. Maybe there
is a team that's like, you know what, we actually think he could
come in here, help us and help us get to be where we want
to be, and we'll give you back a deal that even if it runs
two years shorter like then then we're good. So I think those are the
kind of two moves under no circle ccumstances at this point, would I trade
Kamenga or pad Jemski in any kind of deal that's chasing a win now move
for the rest of this Seasonmoses Moody though, please just freed him. Yeah,
Moses Moody, I'm fine with it. I'm kind of the point with
Moses mood It's just never gonna happen there. Like, It's just there's now
too much history of it's just hasn't happened, and it's not going to.
He's behind too many other guys in the rotation, and I just think there's
been plenty of opportunity. It hasn't happened in those opportunities. So it's not
gonna be a thing. So now you you know, yeah, if you
can move him in a deal, fine, but I think it becomes I
wouldn't be chasing upgrades for the rest of this season just because I think you're
you're chasing after a dream there, right, You're chasing after we get some
problem? Could they win in the playing tournament? Get in it's the eight
seed? Sure? Are they beating Denver, a healthy Clippers team that you
know, they the Wolves of the Thunder. I mean, maybe they could
beat the Wolves of the Thunder. They don't have any kind of track,
But I just I find it hard to believe they're going to be able to
do that and win on the road three times in a row to get to
where taking on like like Grant said, Zach Levine, taking on somebody like
Levine would make sense. I just don't see that being being a thing that
I would do. And I think they're smarter than that as a front office,
and I think hopefully their guys also understand, Hey, being down for
a year or two, it is not the end of the world. Now
it's harder to bounce back. All those guys are older, so it's not
going to be as easy as bouncing back like they did this last time.
But maybe that's you know, where their processes is, all right, fine,
we fall a little bit, we fall out, but what we'll be
back. And again, I just think it's imperative if they can get out
of the aprons for next year somehow free up the ability to use you know,
exceptions and that to kind of flush out the roster a little bit differently.
The base is there of a team that can be pretty good still.
I truly believe that, So I just I wouldn't go crazy trying to make
it better right now, Grant, who's your third and final team? I'll
talk sixers real quick? I think you know all along. Once the once
the sort of roster revamp happened where they get a bunch of expiring salary back
and they get a couple of picks to add so they can trade I think
up the three firsts right now post hard and trade. Their path forward has
just been really confusing to me because there's this and Daryl Morey has talked about
it like where if there's someone out there now, we'll do it. We've
got the assets to do it. But if not, we've got you know,
one hundred million dollars in expiring contracts, we could have all this cap
space, we'll play the free agent game. And it's just sort of how
how do they go forward? Knowing Joel Embiid is as good as he's ever
going to be right now, and we should be pushing for a title.
The market sucks, like there's nobody that we really need to go out,
and you know, there's no no brainer acquisition to them that I think meaningfully
levels them up necessarily, but the ones that might probably eat into their capspace
next summer. So it's kind of like, how do they thread this needle?
That's really just the underlying question for me, for the Sixers, and
because it does seem like they're so clearly positioned to do something with all their
expiring salaries and the picks they can move, and they should be feeling some
urgency to do something, but then there's this sort of like, well,
we've got plan B where we could just like I don't know, I guess
re sign Tobias Harris next, you know, next summer, or somebody else
like DeRozan, all these guys that they might DeRozan's example, someone they could
trade for, but like why, you know. So they're just interesting in
that they've got a couple of pathways to improve the team, one short term,
one long term, and all these assets to do it. It just
there's no clean fit, there's no easy fix, there's no The market is
not their friend. I don't feel like at this particular deadline they kind of
got a raw deal in some ways, because in past deadlines there might be
a half dozen guys that they could be targeting. Now there's like two or
three that really would be like even average different. I guess if that's a
term. So got my eye on them. They're just kind of interesting because
of their situation. Yeah, I'm with you, they're interesting into Daryl Morey's
gonna do something even if it's not a big move. I like to say
he's like the tinkerer, right, He's always tinkering with the roster throughout the
year, and I think he'll do something even if it's a smaller move.
I just don't know that the big move comes. It Also wouln't surprise me
if a big move does come, because I think Daryl Mory may look at
it and say, hey, it's there's nothing we can do in the summer
that we can't do right now. And again we get the added benefit of
we'll get to see what a playoff run looks like with player X in here
in place. But is that guy Zach Levine? I don't think so.
They've seemed indicated. Isn't they indicated? It wasn't Pascal Siakam. I've heard
some people say they're dreaming of Paul George and maybe other guys that seems like,
Okay, we'll keep dreaming, because I don't think he's leaving the Clippers
after I extended with how well they're playing, so that becomes like where are
we going? Like like what is you know, the they're dream target?
Sure, like what is the real plan target? What's our realistic place we're
going to? And that's where I think, you know, maybe that sends
them down a slightly different path of maybe it's not one guy, maybe it's
like two three guys that make twenty million dollars a piece, and you're like,
hey, that's how we're gonna do this. We're we've got our two
Max guys with embat in MAXI moving forward at you, especially in the next
season, and we feel like the best way is to have a bunch of
guys that are on mid range contracts that can then be flipped somewhere else instead
of loading it up and go and getting that one other expensive guys. I
think some teams are starting to look at and say that is not the way
to build forward. My final team, I wanted to be like Detroit,
but I'm more terrified at what they could do than interested. I wanted to
be Chicago, but I don't trust them to actually do you actually tear it
down. They're just addicted to the sub middle. I want it to be
the Pelicans, but I feel like the move they need to make is just
too big for it to happen mid season for it to matter. So the
team I'm settling on is the Houston Rockets are a curiosity for me. They
have some contracts that are like many contracts that are easily to be moved,
but just looking at you know, the Jock Landale, the way that whole
deal is set up, and then they owe their pick to Oklahoma City this
year it's top four protected and like as of now, they'd be sending the
eighth pick, and so it's counterintuitive to say, well, this team should
be buying. But it's also like, because they're outside the plane right now.
But they have a top five defense, and there's some noise there because
they have the best opponent three point shooting, but they do a relatively good
job of limiting wide open jumpers. Like the defense feels there's noise there.
Maybe it's not top five, but they're a better defensive team, Like they're
way above average, and so you're looking at some of the teams in front
of them when it's Utah and you're you know, you're trying to fit.
You're looking at the Lakers feel like a house of cards and sometimes the magic
the Mavericks, excuse me, and the Suns are there. You have all
of these other future picks, not all of your own, but like you
have some of these nets picks. Could you do something like you could do
they could do anything? To be clear, like do you do something of
well, we need some offense, and I know people have mentioned ball handlers,
but even on the scale of like a boyan Boidanovitch, if the price
drops low enough for him, could come in give you some shooting, another
score that you can play it the three or the four, depending on the
defensive personnel you have. And like you have Fred van Fleet, you have
Dylan Brooks, you have Alprin Shang gunflirting with All star consideration right now that
on top of your pick amm into Okac. Is there any just underlying urgency
that we all kind of talked about it in the offseason and now it's just
kind of faded because all this other stuff is happening. But they're a team
that I feel like could be extremely active because they have the assets and internally
the motivation to do so. Yeah, I'm with you. I don't have
a great read on what they're looking to do, but I think they are
very focused on let's keep this moving forward. I thought it was reported recently.
Chris Haynes was the first one I heard reported that Robert Williams could be
in play for them. Now that's a future move, right, that does
nothing for the rest of this season, But that's the kind of smart move
where, hey, maybe we could get him cheap. Is we're ever gonna
get him right now, then we can benefit. And I think Imodoka better
than most knows this guy's probably best role is as a fifteen to twenty minute
a big, a night big off the bench. You start him and you
start playing them thirty minutes. He's just never gonna hold up. He's gonna
get injured. So if I can play a game man as a complete what
a talk about a change up to a fastball from Alpern Changoon, right,
couldn't be two more different bigs is Shangoon moves like he's you know, walking
in molasses. That's you know, hip deep and is super effective with what
he does. And then Williams comes in and it's like, now this dude's
jumping over my head right right, And that's and that's not a criticism on
Shangoon because Jokicha's move very fast and he's you'll, arguably the best player on
the planet. So Embid doesn't even move all that fast. And if you'll
kitches in its embiid Right. So we're we're in a spall where as long
as you you're effective, I don't really care. But it just when you
get throw a completely different look at a team that's huge. So think they
could do that, or they may look at it and say, hey,
why not us? What why can't we beat out Utah? Or maybe Utah
makes a move where it is hey, they're going kind of step back a
little bit. I think we're in a small where we could definitely see the
Rockets make a move. It's just it's like I've seen some people say,
should they trade Jalen Green and draft picks and go all in on Zach Levine.
That doesn't make sense to me, Not now, not today, Yeah,
exactly right, maybe in the summer, Like I would rather let's see
what else comes available. But if there's a small move or too that really
stabilizes the rest a way for this team, that that's great. But as
it stands right now, I think, just hey, we're playing competitive games.
We're in a position where it looks like we'll probably play competitive games all
the way through. That's enough. You took your step forward. What next
summer could be your add on move. But if the right moves there,
now, go ahead and make it now, because again you benefit and you
get the added benefit of all right, we see how it looked. It
maybe didn't look the way we wanted. We got to move something out,
so it doesn't look good with player X instead, So maybe that player becomes
available or something along those lines. I think the Rockets are really set up
nicely. They go a lot of different ways here at the trade deadline and
all the way into the summer, and just the presence of those Oladipos expiring
nine almost nine and a half million, Jock Landale's non guarantee for a little
less than that next year, and even Jeff Green nine million nine point six
this year of the club option next year, Like you're just you know,
you're twenty six twenty seven million dollars right there with from I mean, Green
is a little different than those two because he actually still plays a role there.
But you know that's money going to guys that you are just not you
and don't have any future intentions about that. You can you can make that
smaller or midtier move. You're talking about Keith without you know, going going
nuclear or talking about Jalen Green or anything else like even close to that.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, they You don't need to push everything in right
now. You're not there, You're you're nowhere near there, Like it's it's
a better place to just be smart, be cautious, like be You'll play
the long game a little bit here, you think, I think you've already
shown more than enough improvement that everybody feels good about this season. You don't
need to make them feel extra good bye. Hey, we were the ten
seed and the play and then lost like they you know that's I mean,
that's fine if that's where it ends for the Rockets, But you don't I
wouldn't be chasing that by saying, oh, we gotta go get you'll play
your X like now, if player X is yeah, we like him.
For the next three seasons, sure go, you know, make the move.
So yeah, I think that's a great place to be in honestly,
And it kind of goes back to your grant you mentioned related to the thunder
like this is kind of like my overall thought is as I've followed this and
followed the roster building stuff and talked to a lot of front office executives over
the years, they will say the hardest decision publicly is breaking up a formerly
special team to a city. So the example I gets used is when the
Celtics traded Paul Pierce Kevin Garnett away. It was telling the Celtics fans it's
over right, like it's done they but they all say privately, the hardest
decision is when do we go for it? Right? It is a young
team that's building up, when is the time to go all in? Because
if you do it too early, now you lost all your stuff to do
it later. And if you wait too long, maybe the windows already closed
on you before you even knew. So that is that becomes super fascinating to
watch because there are feels like seven or eight teams that are in that boat
of is now the right time? And it feels like for some of them,
that window is like now or this summer, and that's it. Like
then the window's gone and you don't have that ability. And that's something I'm
very, very curious to keep watching with those teams, what do they do
between now and I kind of it's almost like this is an extended trade window,
where really for me it is for some teams it is today, in
the next week and a half till the trade deadline, all the way through
till you know, next July. For a handful of these teams. There
are some teams it's it's now or never, right, you got to do
it, But it feels like, you know, for a lot of teams
it is, you know, when is the right time that you're looking to
make those moves. Keith, you gave us basically one hundred minutes of your
time. We are super appreciative of always and grateful that you came out and
spent so much time talking to us. We're able just to tell our listeners
where they can find you and all the fantastic work that you do. If
they're not following you already, Yeah, you can find my written workover on
spot track. A lot of stuff up about the trade deadline. We have
buyers and sellers up for both the Eastern Western Conference. I take a little
bit of a different approach. I put like where they are from what we
know, and then I put where I think they should be, like like
what their focus should be. Sometimes I'm in agreement, like teams are in
the right right frame of mind, and then there's other times I'm like,
I maybe think about it differently. We also have like a trade primer up
there, and then every time a trade goes down, sometime hopefully within a
couple hours, I'll have a written reaction. No matter if it's a small
salary dump for a top fifty five protected second round pick, or it is
a real, you know trade, you know, a blockbuster trade that came
out of nowhere and you know there's a lot to break down. I'm gonna
have a reaction up to every single one. And if you like this kind
of stuff, like really getting into the salary cap and roster stuff. NBA
Front Office Show with me and Trevor Lane Monday through Friday. We do the
show Monday through Thursday, will record, and then every Friday we do what
we call Front Office Friday, which is for our fans and we let them
submit questions and ask things in the chat and we have a lot of fun
with it. Sometimes it gets completely sideways and we end up talking about movies
and all this other stuff, but it's it's ostensibly ninety percent about basketball.
But we have a lot of fun on those Friday live shows, and I'll
pump it here. Trade deadline Day, we will be live probably for about
a four hour window, a couple hours ahead of the deadline till a couple
of hours after breaking down everything. Hopefully that happens that there's a lot going
on and we get a lot of stuff to get into our Our hope every
year is when the deadline kind of bell rings at three pm Eastern, that
it's followed like it was a one year by Woad tweeting oh lord, you
know after, because that means it was a pretty good trade deadline. I
would like to request Humbley that they do a better job of getting the pick
protections to us in these deals. I hate that on trade deadline day where
it's just so and so going to Charlotte for a first round pick in two
seconds and we have no idea what those picks are for like seven hours later,
Yeah, it comes out or the following like Friday, Zach Lowe tucks
it in a column somewhere He's like, oh, by the way, those
picks were this, like yeah, yeah, I'm I'm with you a pick
or even where it is like for me, I'm like, all right,
this trade is not legal like someone else has. It's a three for one.
Somebody has to be waved, like who's getting waved? Like, please
tell me because because otherwise, like I get super like stressed, because I'm
like, it's not gonna be right on the site. We're gonna have too
many guys on spot Track under the roster and people are gonna get upset with
us. And I'll pump one other thing if I can very quickly. Yeah,
but we launched our trade machine on spot Track. We even have any
trade machine that is up now. We think it is the most accurate and
most extensive trade machine that's out there. I can assure you the rosters one
are accurate. You're not gonna find a guy who's not on the team anymore
on any of the rosters. And the salaries are accurate too. I know
that's missing components. I'll just say of a couple other options that are out
there that people like to use. I've had a lot of people screenshot me
and send me examples of hey, this is wrong, and I'm like,
that's great, but that that's not our trade machine. I can't fix that.
So now we do have our own trade machine. So now I just
reply with the link to ours, and I'm like, here, you use
this one instead. We're working through the draft pick logic on trades, but
we kind of wanted to get it out there so people could play with it,
give us a bunch of feedback, and then we'll launch. The other
thing that I know we have that nobody else has is you can toggle the
restrictions on and off, so you can do no trade restrictions on. You
can do trade deadline mode, so it's trade like where it'd be. This
is what it would be on trade deadline day there and then that'll be really
helpful in the off season. I think for people if it's like, man,
I want to trade this guy to see what it looks like when we
flip to next year's salaries, you'll be able to shut the restrictions off and
make a trade. If it's like his trade restriction lifts on July fifteenth,
you know of next year, like you can shut those off and go.
So we're really excited. That's out there and it's right on the home page.
You just go to spot track dot com. You'll find it and you'll
enjoy it, play with it and send feedback because we know there's things that
can be improved. I'll link to it in the podcast and YouTube description and
you were kind enough I got to play around with it before you guys put
it live, so it's it's it's great. It's the best one out there,
So go go check it out. Grant, are you ready to take
us out of here? Sure? Yeah, First and foremost thanks to Keith
for coming on with us. I know this is this is the time of
year where time is precious for you and for everybody that's in this business.
So extra thanks for that. Everyone followed at Keith Smith NBA. Check out
spot track. I personally will be using spat track every single day for well,
I do it all year, but especially the next what is it nine
days? Ten days? It is an invaluable resource. You must be familiar
with it if you want to know about the salary cap and follow the league
correctly, and make sure that you don't try to trade uh you know Mobamba
from the Magic for zach lavine because some other places still have him on the
roster. Uh so, and might let you do that even though the salaries
are different. Follow Keith, follow us. All the socials are up on
the screen, rate review, subscribe, thumbs up everywhere. Tell your friends,
Tell your enemies. We'll close this podcast as we close all of them
by thanking Keith again, by giving a shout out to Frank Mila Kina,
and by apologizing for charity