The speculative nature of gold that doesn't yield interest, isn't all that attractive or
isn't as attractive? I should say, well, returns go down to two
percent, or we can recall the days just a few years ago when you
know if you got a half of percent in a CD, that was a
good return. When you have low interest rates, gold becomes a lot more
attractive and the allure becomes more present. You're listening to Carrie Let'sa's Financial Survival
Network where you get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else to thrive in
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Go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial
Survival Network now more than ever, and welcome you are listening to and watching
the Financial Survival Network. We got one of our favorite guests back on with
us. It's been a while, Gary Wagner, The Goold Forecast dot Com.
We're going to go over what's doing with gold prices or whether you go
all in or whether you wait? When will the time be right? Make
sure you check out gary site, The Goold Forecast dot Com. Questions comments,
kl at Carrie lets dot com. All are answered. Gary. It's
great to have you back on the show. It's been a while. A
lot has happened, gold trading at all at or near all time highs.
Silver not so much. But silver is starting to make the long awaited move.
But the question is are we all going to be breathing by the time
silver makes a new high. Thanks so much for having me. It has
been a while and it is great to be back, Carrie. Thank you
sure so. So where are we heading here? Let's say some charts.
You're the master of the precious metals charts. Absolutely, I'm going to go
ahead and not pull up a gold chart for us, and this is a
daily candlestick chart of gold, and I've got it starting at the lows that
came in back in October. And to just think, just you know,
not even a year ago we were looking at nineteen hundred dollars silver. We
went through a market that kind of traded sideways the beginning of the year,
but really took off in February hit the first of two all time record highs.
The second came in in May, and now we're back to a support
level of right around twenty three one hundred dollars per ounce, and that's after
watching gold correct from what about twenty four fifty, And this is gold futures
that we are looking at a little bit price a little bit above spot pricing.
It has been a phenomenal market. And the Federal Reserve has not implemented
its first rate cut because I believe what's going to happen is there's very there's
a very low probability that they're going to implement a rate cut at the FOMC
meeting this month, very little. I think it's almost a ninety six percent
probability of keeping them where they're at, but it goes up to almost seventy
percent in September. And the key to me is not that they're going to
make a rate cut in September, but when they do, that will signal
a series of rate cuts, because if you recall any of the most recent
dot plots that are included in the sept the Summary of Economic Projections, well,
they were looking for three rate cuts this year now too, further rate
cuts next year, and then twenty twenty six to normalize rates. And so
if they're going to take their Fed funds rate from between five and a quarter
five and a half percent, where they are now down to a normalized rate,
which could be two and a half rather than two, but nonetheless that's
a big drop, and that will really take gold into new unheard of territory
in terms of new all time record high pricing. All right, fascinating,
fascinating. So you know, like they always said, inflation doesn't pick up,
not with low interest rates, but when they raise interest rates, inflation
starts picking up because then the banks make more loans and private money creation takes
off. But this time it's a little bit different, isn't it. Well,
absolutely, and realize that it's different because of the environment that got us
here, which started with a pandemic, then supply chain, bottomnecks, all
kinds of issues from the United States basically shutting down its workforce for a year
a year and a half and then rebuilding back into a normalized state. And
so because of that, you had a unique scenario that got us here.
So you have a unique set of circumstances that unfolded because of that. I
would just say that Florida wasn't shut down as much as the rest of the
world or the country here. We were shut down. I think about six
weeks till somebody realized that, hey, half the state's going to go bankrupt
if we don't start back to work shortly. So but in any event,
I totally agree with your analysis of it. All right, so what else
do we have here? So when can we look forward? Do you think
when's the right cut? They got to have one by the end of the
year. I'm shocked that they're not doing it because because of the political season
here to you know, one time, Alan Abelson, the late great editor
of Barons, wrote that the Federal Reserve is doing what it does best,
which is getting a president reelected, and they seem to have taken a hands
off approach here. Gary, I would hope that they would. They've got
more serious problems. Although that's a very serious problem in terms of the upcoming
election. But the problem that they are faced with is that the current level
of interest rates are adding untenable sustainable rate. Why, because we have a
budget deficit, that's what forty four trillion dollars, and so the Treasury Department
is responsible for making good at least servicing the interest on our debt. So
as our debt goes up, the payments balloon when you've got interest rates at
four and five percent is opposed to two percent, and both Powell as well
as Treasury Secretary Yellen said that this law level is absolutely unsustainable for any continued
length of time. So I think that the real headache that the FED is
facing by not reducing their FED funds rate is that it makes our government have
such a more difficult job in just servicing the interest on our national debt,
let alone to say that it has been ballooning and continues to grow. So
you've got a scenario where our deficit is growing and the cost to service it
is increasing. That is the primary problem. I think the Treasury and the
Fed our faith right, I got it. I have a solution for it,
all right, really simple. We take the President of Argentina Mile and
we create a new cabinet position called the Department of Slashing Government Spending, useless
government spending, and we put him in charge, and he does a Qatar
Tatar Tatar tatar, and within probably a week he only has to be there
for a week, he will have cut so much government spending that will have
a surplus, and we'll be able to pay our debt down probably in a
few years. Wouldn't that be nice? Huhit short of that, I don't
see any any solutions because every president wholly embraces inflation and excessive government spending.
Doesn't matter what party they're from. Uh, there's only one party, incumbency
or the UNI party, and that's that, all right. So tell us
silver, silver, silver, all right. It's been holding onto my silver
for years now. It seems I'm thinking of melting it down into bullets and
going becoming a vampire slayer. That might be a good use for it,
because it hasn't really gotten that much more expensive. We're looking at a lead
chart. This is in candlestick format of silver, and what you can see
is that we had a tremendous rise from about twenty three dollars February, and
it really surprised me when back towards the middle of May it rose above thirty
dollars. It's the first time we've seen that. I think the last time
we saw thirty dollars silver was about two years ago. But then when you
look at thirty two dollars silver, it on a technical basis is a very
interesting level. And I'll try to show you why if I can get this
in here. I'm going to compress this to a weekly chart, and what
you can see is all these series of tops that came in in twenty twenty
and so a move above this and this is where it gets interesting, and
I'm going to move it to a monthly. No one trades or buys off
a monthly, but I'll show you what I'm talking about, and that is
this, if silver out of clothes using basis can move above thirty two dollars
on a technical basis, you've got really a little bit of resistance at thirty
three, but nothing major till about forty dollars. Silver has been a perplexing
precious metal that it hasn't followed gold, it hasn't followed palladium or platinum.
It's it's been in an isolated world of itself in that as metals were running
to record highs, silver was staying flat. And at the same time,
if you read a lot of articles and events that came out in the media,
they were talking about silver shortages and squeezes, all these pundits and I
think salesman really that we're saying, you know, it's not if, but
when silver going back to fifty, well when it hasn't shown us historically that
that has happened. And so if you can see on this monthly chart,
it's really back in twenty fourteen, thirteen and twelve, and that was the
last time silver really hit a high that was an all time record high.
And so because of that, a break and a close above thirty two could
be really significant and could signal a challenge of those prices back ten years ago.
Yeah. I so one thing that a lot of people mistake the psychological
number for the technical number. The psychological number is the whole number of thirty
bucks, and everyone thought happy days are here again. But the technical number
is what you've got there at thirty two, thirty three around there. But
you know, based on what you're seeing here, the chart looks pretty good.
It looks like it's forming a cup with a handle, doesn't it.
Well on that, let's take it back to a daily because I just had
to compress it so we could get a strong idea. What I'm seeing is
we hit this top at thirty three. This is back at the end of
May trade it down to about twenty three, and then over the last couple
of days we've seen some real strike and support come in right around twenty nine.
There's resistance right below today's move on this daily chart. Of course,
we have a shortened trading week with independence, say, being celebrated later this
week. So my senses is that we need to see sober challenge and trade
above thirty two. And I believe that is highly possible if gold trades to
a new record high. And I think that that is inevitable once the federal
Reserve begins, right cuts, Yeah, yeah, And and so it's leading
up to the rate cuts where everyone knows it's going to happen, uh,
and they're just waiting for them to pull the trigger that could set it off
too. Absolutely, all right, anything else that we need to be looking
at here? Those are the two things I'm focusing on. I mean,
what about interest rates? Interest rates you track it separately because you know the
metals are somewhat dependent upon them. Well, we I am fairly firmly of
the conviction, and history has kind of proven out that lower interest rates bodes
really well for gold, not so much as an inflation hedge, but the
fact that now it has less competition against fixed incomes become less attractive. You
can take four and five percent in a fixed guaranteed income. The speculative nature
of gold that doesn't yield interest isn't all that attractive, or isn't as attractive
I should say when returns go down to two percent, or we can recall
the days just a few years ago, when you know if you got a
half of percent in a CD, that was a good return. When you
have low interest rates, gold becomes a lot more attractive and the allure becomes
more present. Hey, so Gary, if you had two hundred and fifty
thousand that somebody just dropped on your desk today, what would you do with
it. I've put a good portion in the precious metals long term. They're
high now, I've looked to buy the dips. But the fact that gold
has held on to twenty three hundred. If you recall think about when gold
traded to its first big record high middle of twenty eleven. When it did
that, it dropped to eighteen hundred and then traded between eighteen hundred and fifteen
hundred for a while and then spike down to one thousand. So far,
we have haven't seen that. We have not seen the kind of correction that
followed the last all time Ruging. I the in the middle of twenty eleven,
so I would have a portion allocated to that there are in terms of
equities. It's it's not a stock market, my mentor taught me one time.
It's a market of stocks. There are some out there that I like.
They might be over sold, like in video, but I think their
technology is unique and no one competes with them, and so I would look
to that the moat they got the moat. Yeah, I think the precious
metals are going to provide long term stability and opportunity in the next say,
three to five years. Okay, as a financial guy looking at AI,
what are your thoughts? Marvelous? It is a disruptive, transformative technology that
will reshape the world as we know it. I mean, the use of
these the chat bots and AI is pretty much mixed into everything in every large
company, whether it's Facebook, Google, the big ones, Apple, They're
all implementing and integrating AI into their platforms, and so it's become readily available
to those that are somewhat savvy and those that are novices to be able to
polish a report by plugging it into chat, GBT or into Claude, which
is one that I happen to favor and having it polish that within thirty or
forty seconds. It sure beats the days of grammarly and the days of spell
checks. I mean, it's transformed the ability to come out with a highly
refined article that takes your thoughts and doesn't change them if you put the prompts
in properly, but organize it in such way that you're always putting your best
foot forward. It is going to revolutionize so many components in so many industries
that when we look back to twenty twenty four and twenty five, five years,
eight years from now, we are going to realize that this was that
pivotal moment in which AI began to infuse itself into the everyday lives of working
class and working Americans. I should say, because it enals us to do
so much more, work so much quicker, and have a much more effective
tool at whether your medium is speaking, writing, any vocation that you have,
you can really hands it by the proper use of AI. Now there's
stangers with that, but we'll have to see how those pan out. All
Right, all right, I'm totally agreeing with you. You know, I
don't like to just use it to generate stuff. But when I have stuff
already that I could plug into it, it could be a nice place to
start. I'd never kind of just use it for batim. I don't trust
it that much. And it's definitely as a political skew because I like to
be sarcastic. I put into the thing, you know, the current occupant
of the White House, like, without getting political, is three top accomplishments.
Number one ending a useless war in Afghanistan, a twenty year war and
bringing of the troops in a week. Number two was solving the labor shortage
that was caused by the pandemic and opening up the border to get all those
new workers. And number three was curing the hotel shortage with all the newcomers.
And the thing like put together, I'm laughing hysterically at it because those
are three things that are very negative. I agree that the war needed to
end. Who shouldn't have been there? Nation building all that, totally agree,
but a little more orderly maybe, and you know, legal immigration.
But this thing like was lauding the policies that they were the greatest things that
ever happened, you know, So anything political. My point is keep it
away from the aid. We don't need it, we don't want it.
But uh, these journalists, these people parading as journalists, well hey,
we don't really need them anyway, So just give it over to chat GPT
and let that run with it. Right, Well, Asie, I agree
with you, I would not trust it in any way to just do something
for me. If I write a think piece or an article, I will
put it in on occasion into one of the AI platforms, but I go
use every fact in detail that I presented, do not omit anything, go
anything but polish and rewrite it. Then it it really does a better job
than say grammarly or something else to spell check, but to order the way
your your article is laid out, but you have to tell it. Use
every fact, use every use every detail, don't admit and don't add,
and then you can get something that is truly more polished than what you put
in without what they call hallucinations. If you ask to do write an article
on where you think gold is going out, you know next three months,
Lord knows you you can get anything. And if you ask it the same
question ten times, you'll get ten completely different answers. So in that way,
it's laugh not laughable, but it doesn't have the kind of benefits that
it does if properly utilized. The idea of text to video just amazes me
what you can publish and what kind of video you can create by old man
sipping a bowl of soup in an urban city and it comes out with these
breath taking videos. So there's definitely a transformation taking on. Totally agree with
you. It's yeah, I don't trust it. But like writing show notes
and then reviewing them, I mean I can tell when stuff's written by AI,
and you know because eventually I just this isn't real and I just stop
listening or reading. But when you write your own material and then you tell
it to clean it up and don't cut anything out, it can really do
an admirable and save you a lot of time. Look, I was paying
somebody, yes, yeah, I was paying somebody twenty thirty bucks an hour
to write my show notes and you know, I do a lot of content.
And she was a great writer, really polished, but she didn't really
understand what I did. And you know, then the Zoom has an app
allthread dot AI, so I got that and it would take notes and it
was pretty darn good. I take those notes, I make changes, I
throw them into chat GPT or one of the others, and it comes up
with really good work. But it's like it'll say in this insightful interview Carrie
Lutz and Gary Wagner, it's just like predictable with these platitudes and stuff,
so you have to cut them out. But you know, outside of that,
it's a timesaver. I think Gary, like when we hit like the
nineties, basically, I think the economy was headed for a real crash,
and then the Internet came and I thought it really saved us. Then the
Internet crashed the stocks, but then you know, we moved on from there.
We have the war, economy, everything else. But now I think
we're in a similar position. The economy is headed for an implosion. But
AI, I think has the potential, well, I'm not fully convinced has
the potential to really really change things around. Unquestionably will the way I look
at someone like myself and to a degree you they're going to have. AI
is going to be able to at some point come close to duplicating what we
do, but they won't be able to duplicate our take and our thoughts and
our I'll look on something the one thing AI can do, and I'll leave
this as a last kind of thought. I remember doing lectures in Indonesia and
I had a translator because there's not many English speaking people there, and the
translator was hard pressed. If I use something like a stochastic oslator, any
technical jargon that a market technician would use, they fell apart. Lost.
It was just they were lost. AI knows how to deal with any modality,
whether it's medical, health, insurance analysis. It knows the subtleties and
the word tracks and specific vocabulary to those vocations. And that what That's something
that amazes me. The same here, I agree. So I go over
to Gary site. It's still written by a human being, thegoldfecast dot com.
And you've got a question for Gary myself. The email address is kl
at Carrie Lutz dot com and the link to Gary site is in the show
notes to this in review on Financial Survival Network dot com. So go there,
sign up for your free newsletter. Gary always a pleasure, great reconnecting.
We'll talk to you again real soon. Absolutely, thanks for having me,
Bye bye. Thanks for listening to Carrie Lenz's Financial Survival Network your solution
to today's trying times. For the latest, go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com.
Financial Survival Network now more than ever,