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The speculative nature of gold that doesn't
yield interest, isn't all that attractive or

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isn't as attractive? I should say, well, returns go down to two

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percent, or we can recall the
days just a few years ago when you

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know if you got a half of
percent in a CD, that was a

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good return. When you have low
interest rates, gold becomes a lot more

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attractive and the allure becomes more present. You're listening to Carrie Let'sa's Financial Survival

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00:00:30,839 --> 00:00:36,479
Network where you get valuable information you
just can't find anywhere else to thrive in

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00:00:36,520 --> 00:00:41,960
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Go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com and
get your free newsletter and gift. Financial

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00:00:48,399 --> 00:00:58,000
Survival Network now more than ever,
and welcome you are listening to and watching

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00:00:58,039 --> 00:01:02,840
the Financial Survival Network. We got
one of our favorite guests back on with

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us. It's been a while,
Gary Wagner, The Goold Forecast dot Com.

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We're going to go over what's doing
with gold prices or whether you go

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all in or whether you wait?
When will the time be right? Make

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sure you check out gary site,
The Goold Forecast dot Com. Questions comments,

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kl at Carrie lets dot com.
All are answered. Gary. It's

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great to have you back on the
show. It's been a while. A

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lot has happened, gold trading at
all at or near all time highs.

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Silver not so much. But silver
is starting to make the long awaited move.

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But the question is are we all
going to be breathing by the time

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silver makes a new high. Thanks
so much for having me. It has

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been a while and it is great
to be back, Carrie. Thank you

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sure so. So where are we
heading here? Let's say some charts.

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You're the master of the precious metals
charts. Absolutely, I'm going to go

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ahead and not pull up a gold
chart for us, and this is a

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daily candlestick chart of gold, and
I've got it starting at the lows that

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came in back in October. And
to just think, just you know,

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not even a year ago we were
looking at nineteen hundred dollars silver. We

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went through a market that kind of
traded sideways the beginning of the year,

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but really took off in February hit
the first of two all time record highs.

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The second came in in May,
and now we're back to a support

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level of right around twenty three one
hundred dollars per ounce, and that's after

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watching gold correct from what about twenty
four fifty, And this is gold futures

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that we are looking at a little
bit price a little bit above spot pricing.

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It has been a phenomenal market.
And the Federal Reserve has not implemented

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its first rate cut because I believe
what's going to happen is there's very there's

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a very low probability that they're going
to implement a rate cut at the FOMC

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meeting this month, very little.
I think it's almost a ninety six percent

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probability of keeping them where they're at, but it goes up to almost seventy

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percent in September. And the key
to me is not that they're going to

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make a rate cut in September,
but when they do, that will signal

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a series of rate cuts, because
if you recall any of the most recent

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dot plots that are included in the
sept the Summary of Economic Projections, well,

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they were looking for three rate cuts
this year now too, further rate

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cuts next year, and then twenty
twenty six to normalize rates. And so

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if they're going to take their Fed
funds rate from between five and a quarter

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five and a half percent, where
they are now down to a normalized rate,

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which could be two and a half
rather than two, but nonetheless that's

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a big drop, and that will
really take gold into new unheard of territory

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in terms of new all time record
high pricing. All right, fascinating,

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fascinating. So you know, like
they always said, inflation doesn't pick up,

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not with low interest rates, but
when they raise interest rates, inflation

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starts picking up because then the banks
make more loans and private money creation takes

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off. But this time it's a
little bit different, isn't it. Well,

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absolutely, and realize that it's different
because of the environment that got us

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here, which started with a pandemic, then supply chain, bottomnecks, all

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kinds of issues from the United States
basically shutting down its workforce for a year

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a year and a half and then
rebuilding back into a normalized state. And

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so because of that, you had
a unique scenario that got us here.

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So you have a unique set of
circumstances that unfolded because of that. I

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would just say that Florida wasn't shut
down as much as the rest of the

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world or the country here. We
were shut down. I think about six

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weeks till somebody realized that, hey, half the state's going to go bankrupt

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if we don't start back to work
shortly. So but in any event,

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I totally agree with your analysis of
it. All right, so what else

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do we have here? So when
can we look forward? Do you think

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when's the right cut? They got
to have one by the end of the

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year. I'm shocked that they're not
doing it because because of the political season

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here to you know, one time, Alan Abelson, the late great editor

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of Barons, wrote that the Federal
Reserve is doing what it does best,

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which is getting a president reelected,
and they seem to have taken a hands

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off approach here. Gary, I
would hope that they would. They've got

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more serious problems. Although that's a
very serious problem in terms of the upcoming

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election. But the problem that they
are faced with is that the current level

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of interest rates are adding untenable sustainable
rate. Why, because we have a

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budget deficit, that's what forty four
trillion dollars, and so the Treasury Department

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is responsible for making good at least
servicing the interest on our debt. So

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as our debt goes up, the
payments balloon when you've got interest rates at

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four and five percent is opposed to
two percent, and both Powell as well

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as Treasury Secretary Yellen said that this
law level is absolutely unsustainable for any continued

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length of time. So I think
that the real headache that the FED is

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facing by not reducing their FED funds
rate is that it makes our government have

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such a more difficult job in just
servicing the interest on our national debt,

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let alone to say that it has
been ballooning and continues to grow. So

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you've got a scenario where our deficit
is growing and the cost to service it

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is increasing. That is the primary
problem. I think the Treasury and the

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Fed our faith right, I got
it. I have a solution for it,

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all right, really simple. We
take the President of Argentina Mile and

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we create a new cabinet position called
the Department of Slashing Government Spending, useless

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government spending, and we put him
in charge, and he does a Qatar

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Tatar Tatar tatar, and within probably
a week he only has to be there

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for a week, he will have
cut so much government spending that will have

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a surplus, and we'll be able
to pay our debt down probably in a

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few years. Wouldn't that be nice? Huhit short of that, I don't

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see any any solutions because every president
wholly embraces inflation and excessive government spending.

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Doesn't matter what party they're from.
Uh, there's only one party, incumbency

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or the UNI party, and that's
that, all right. So tell us

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silver, silver, silver, all
right. It's been holding onto my silver

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for years now. It seems I'm
thinking of melting it down into bullets and

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going becoming a vampire slayer. That
might be a good use for it,

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because it hasn't really gotten that much
more expensive. We're looking at a lead

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chart. This is in candlestick format
of silver, and what you can see

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is that we had a tremendous rise
from about twenty three dollars February, and

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it really surprised me when back towards
the middle of May it rose above thirty

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dollars. It's the first time we've
seen that. I think the last time

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we saw thirty dollars silver was about
two years ago. But then when you

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look at thirty two dollars silver,
it on a technical basis is a very

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interesting level. And I'll try to
show you why if I can get this

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in here. I'm going to compress
this to a weekly chart, and what

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you can see is all these series
of tops that came in in twenty twenty

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and so a move above this and
this is where it gets interesting, and

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I'm going to move it to a
monthly. No one trades or buys off

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a monthly, but I'll show you
what I'm talking about, and that is

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this, if silver out of clothes
using basis can move above thirty two dollars

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on a technical basis, you've got
really a little bit of resistance at thirty

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three, but nothing major till about
forty dollars. Silver has been a perplexing

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precious metal that it hasn't followed gold, it hasn't followed palladium or platinum.

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It's it's been in an isolated world
of itself in that as metals were running

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to record highs, silver was staying
flat. And at the same time,

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if you read a lot of articles
and events that came out in the media,

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they were talking about silver shortages and
squeezes, all these pundits and I

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think salesman really that we're saying,
you know, it's not if, but

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when silver going back to fifty,
well when it hasn't shown us historically that

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that has happened. And so if
you can see on this monthly chart,

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it's really back in twenty fourteen,
thirteen and twelve, and that was the

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last time silver really hit a high
that was an all time record high.

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And so because of that, a
break and a close above thirty two could

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be really significant and could signal a
challenge of those prices back ten years ago.

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Yeah. I so one thing that
a lot of people mistake the psychological

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number for the technical number. The
psychological number is the whole number of thirty

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bucks, and everyone thought happy days
are here again. But the technical number

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is what you've got there at thirty
two, thirty three around there. But

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you know, based on what you're
seeing here, the chart looks pretty good.

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It looks like it's forming a cup
with a handle, doesn't it.

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Well on that, let's take it
back to a daily because I just had

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to compress it so we could get
a strong idea. What I'm seeing is

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we hit this top at thirty three. This is back at the end of

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May trade it down to about twenty
three, and then over the last couple

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of days we've seen some real strike
and support come in right around twenty nine.

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There's resistance right below today's move on
this daily chart. Of course,

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we have a shortened trading week with
independence, say, being celebrated later this

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week. So my senses is that
we need to see sober challenge and trade

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above thirty two. And I believe
that is highly possible if gold trades to

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a new record high. And I
think that that is inevitable once the federal

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Reserve begins, right cuts, Yeah, yeah, And and so it's leading

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up to the rate cuts where everyone
knows it's going to happen, uh,

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and they're just waiting for them to
pull the trigger that could set it off

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too. Absolutely, all right,
anything else that we need to be looking

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at here? Those are the two
things I'm focusing on. I mean,

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what about interest rates? Interest rates
you track it separately because you know the

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metals are somewhat dependent upon them.
Well, we I am fairly firmly of

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the conviction, and history has kind
of proven out that lower interest rates bodes

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really well for gold, not so
much as an inflation hedge, but the

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fact that now it has less competition
against fixed incomes become less attractive. You

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can take four and five percent in
a fixed guaranteed income. The speculative nature

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of gold that doesn't yield interest isn't
all that attractive, or isn't as attractive

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I should say when returns go down
to two percent, or we can recall

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the days just a few years ago, when you know if you got a

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half of percent in a CD,
that was a good return. When you

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have low interest rates, gold becomes
a lot more attractive and the allure becomes

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more present. Hey, so Gary, if you had two hundred and fifty

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thousand that somebody just dropped on your
desk today, what would you do with

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it. I've put a good portion
in the precious metals long term. They're

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high now, I've looked to buy
the dips. But the fact that gold

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has held on to twenty three hundred. If you recall think about when gold

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traded to its first big record high
middle of twenty eleven. When it did

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that, it dropped to eighteen hundred
and then traded between eighteen hundred and fifteen

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hundred for a while and then spike
down to one thousand. So far,

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we have haven't seen that. We
have not seen the kind of correction that

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followed the last all time Ruging.
I the in the middle of twenty eleven,

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so I would have a portion allocated
to that there are in terms of

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equities. It's it's not a stock
market, my mentor taught me one time.

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It's a market of stocks. There
are some out there that I like.

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They might be over sold, like
in video, but I think their

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technology is unique and no one competes
with them, and so I would look

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to that the moat they got the
moat. Yeah, I think the precious

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metals are going to provide long term
stability and opportunity in the next say,

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three to five years. Okay,
as a financial guy looking at AI,

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what are your thoughts? Marvelous?
It is a disruptive, transformative technology that

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will reshape the world as we know
it. I mean, the use of

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these the chat bots and AI is
pretty much mixed into everything in every large

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company, whether it's Facebook, Google, the big ones, Apple, They're

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all implementing and integrating AI into their
platforms, and so it's become readily available

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to those that are somewhat savvy and
those that are novices to be able to

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polish a report by plugging it into
chat, GBT or into Claude, which

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00:16:41,639 --> 00:16:48,320
is one that I happen to favor
and having it polish that within thirty or

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forty seconds. It sure beats the
days of grammarly and the days of spell

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checks. I mean, it's transformed
the ability to come out with a highly

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refined article that takes your thoughts and
doesn't change them if you put the prompts

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in properly, but organize it in
such way that you're always putting your best

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foot forward. It is going to
revolutionize so many components in so many industries

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that when we look back to twenty
twenty four and twenty five, five years,

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eight years from now, we are
going to realize that this was that

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pivotal moment in which AI began to
infuse itself into the everyday lives of working

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class and working Americans. I should
say, because it enals us to do

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so much more, work so much
quicker, and have a much more effective

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tool at whether your medium is speaking, writing, any vocation that you have,

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you can really hands it by the
proper use of AI. Now there's

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stangers with that, but we'll have
to see how those pan out. All

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Right, all right, I'm totally
agreeing with you. You know, I

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don't like to just use it to
generate stuff. But when I have stuff

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already that I could plug into it, it could be a nice place to

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start. I'd never kind of just
use it for batim. I don't trust

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it that much. And it's definitely
as a political skew because I like to

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be sarcastic. I put into the
thing, you know, the current occupant

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of the White House, like,
without getting political, is three top accomplishments.

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Number one ending a useless war in
Afghanistan, a twenty year war and

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bringing of the troops in a week. Number two was solving the labor shortage

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that was caused by the pandemic and
opening up the border to get all those

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new workers. And number three was
curing the hotel shortage with all the newcomers.

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And the thing like put together,
I'm laughing hysterically at it because those

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are three things that are very negative. I agree that the war needed to

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end. Who shouldn't have been there? Nation building all that, totally agree,

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but a little more orderly maybe,
and you know, legal immigration.

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But this thing like was lauding the
policies that they were the greatest things that

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ever happened, you know, So
anything political. My point is keep it

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away from the aid. We don't
need it, we don't want it.

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But uh, these journalists, these
people parading as journalists, well hey,

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we don't really need them anyway,
So just give it over to chat GPT

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and let that run with it.
Right, Well, Asie, I agree

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with you, I would not trust
it in any way to just do something

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for me. If I write a
think piece or an article, I will

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put it in on occasion into one
of the AI platforms, but I go

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use every fact in detail that I
presented, do not omit anything, go

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anything but polish and rewrite it.
Then it it really does a better job

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than say grammarly or something else to
spell check, but to order the way

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your your article is laid out,
but you have to tell it. Use

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every fact, use every use every
detail, don't admit and don't add,

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and then you can get something that
is truly more polished than what you put

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in without what they call hallucinations.
If you ask to do write an article

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on where you think gold is going
out, you know next three months,

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Lord knows you you can get anything. And if you ask it the same

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question ten times, you'll get ten
completely different answers. So in that way,

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it's laugh not laughable, but it
doesn't have the kind of benefits that

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it does if properly utilized. The
idea of text to video just amazes me

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what you can publish and what kind
of video you can create by old man

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sipping a bowl of soup in an
urban city and it comes out with these

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breath taking videos. So there's definitely
a transformation taking on. Totally agree with

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you. It's yeah, I don't
trust it. But like writing show notes

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and then reviewing them, I mean
I can tell when stuff's written by AI,

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and you know because eventually I just
this isn't real and I just stop

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listening or reading. But when you
write your own material and then you tell

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it to clean it up and don't
cut anything out, it can really do

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an admirable and save you a lot
of time. Look, I was paying

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somebody, yes, yeah, I
was paying somebody twenty thirty bucks an hour

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to write my show notes and you
know, I do a lot of content.

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And she was a great writer,
really polished, but she didn't really

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understand what I did. And you
know, then the Zoom has an app

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allthread dot AI, so I got
that and it would take notes and it

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was pretty darn good. I take
those notes, I make changes, I

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throw them into chat GPT or one
of the others, and it comes up

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with really good work. But it's
like it'll say in this insightful interview Carrie

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Lutz and Gary Wagner, it's just
like predictable with these platitudes and stuff,

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so you have to cut them out. But you know, outside of that,

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it's a timesaver. I think Gary, like when we hit like the

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nineties, basically, I think the
economy was headed for a real crash,

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and then the Internet came and I
thought it really saved us. Then the

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Internet crashed the stocks, but then
you know, we moved on from there.

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We have the war, economy,
everything else. But now I think

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we're in a similar position. The
economy is headed for an implosion. But

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AI, I think has the potential, well, I'm not fully convinced has

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the potential to really really change things
around. Unquestionably will the way I look

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at someone like myself and to a
degree you they're going to have. AI

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is going to be able to at
some point come close to duplicating what we

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do, but they won't be able
to duplicate our take and our thoughts and

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our I'll look on something the one
thing AI can do, and I'll leave

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this as a last kind of thought. I remember doing lectures in Indonesia and

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I had a translator because there's not
many English speaking people there, and the

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translator was hard pressed. If I
use something like a stochastic oslator, any

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technical jargon that a market technician would
use, they fell apart. Lost.

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It was just they were lost.
AI knows how to deal with any modality,

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whether it's medical, health, insurance
analysis. It knows the subtleties and

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the word tracks and specific vocabulary to
those vocations. And that what That's something

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that amazes me. The same here, I agree. So I go over

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to Gary site. It's still written
by a human being, thegoldfecast dot com.

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And you've got a question for Gary
myself. The email address is kl

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00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:57,880
at Carrie Lutz dot com and the
link to Gary site is in the show

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00:24:57,920 --> 00:25:03,640
notes to this in review on Financial
Survival Network dot com. So go there,

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00:25:03,839 --> 00:25:07,640
sign up for your free newsletter.
Gary always a pleasure, great reconnecting.

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We'll talk to you again real soon. Absolutely, thanks for having me,

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Bye bye. Thanks for listening to
Carrie Lenz's Financial Survival Network your solution

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00:25:15,759 --> 00:25:22,440
to today's trying times. For the
latest, go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com.

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00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:26,279
Financial Survival Network now more than ever,
