What is krack alakin Hardwinox listeners, I am Dana Valley coming at you with
a very special guest. If you're watching on YouTube, my dog Wade named
after Wade Wilson of Deadpool, who wanted to be in my lap while I
was recording this, just to say hi. He's a little tired. We
were just playing fetch in the excruciating heat for a minute. But he's about
to get that now, but he wanted to say hi. Let's introduce say
hello to everyone. If you're on the podcast version, I apologize Wade.
What is krack alackin Hardwinox listeners, I am dan Va Valley coming at you
with a very special guest. But while we dive into this mailbag, my
dog Wade named after not Dwyane Wade as most people assume, but Wade Wilson,
Deadpool, one of my favorite Marvel characters. If you're on YouTube,
you could say a little Wade right here. He looks terrified, but he's
in my army. He's a little tired. We just play vetch. But
I'm gonna put him down and remind you all to please rate, review,
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to the first time listeners. We have a lot of fun around these parts,
and we try to do a thorough, unseerious job of covering the NBA
for the most part. There are rants. Everyone knows that there are rants.
I do want to say one more time and I'll wrap this up.
I know I thank our listeners and subscribers a lot, but hardware Knox just
had its second best month all time when looking at downloads and engagement. We
had like a while while ago, we had like crazy amount of downloads pre
Blue Wire network. I don't know what happened. I don't even remember what
the month was, but it means a lot to me that you continue to
consume this podcast, whether it's on YouTube or just a typical podcast player.
I can't tell you how much I appreciate you all that you keep coming back
all the dms that I've gotten Discord messages. You can join in on that
in the YouTube description or the podcast description. The link is there, follow
us on all the socials. But I can't tell you how much it means
to me that it does seem like maybe we're growing. We'll see if this
keeps up. And I've been committed since I've made this more of a solo
operation to putting out more content, and I hope you're enjoying it. But
let's get to that actual content rather than wasting nearly two minutes on this rambling.
But if you didn't want to meet Wade even virtually, I don't know
if you should be listening to this podcast anyway. We have a mailbag.
I've finally got to it. We actually ended up publishing different episodes last week,
but these are our YouTube and Twitter questions. It also really means a
lot to me that we have enough questions from Discord, YouTube and Twitter to
split up the mailbags per week. Maybe so. And we have one Discord
question too that I think I'm going to be able to fit in here without
further ado though. This one comes from Chris Curtis on YouTube. If the
Suns are heat can get KD for what seems like an underwhelming package, example,
no bridges included or not a huge half picks. How do you think
that affects the future of the league in CBA agreements? As a Suns fan,
I take it. As Suns fan, I take it because you do
what you got to do to win a chip. But for a league level
of view, it would look like players can just control everything. I don't
know why, but it feels like this is the ultimate test of who really
has the leverage in this league. Love the show as always, We love
you too, Chris, Thank you so much for saying that. Yeah,
look, regardless of what happens with KD, these new CBA negotiations are going
to be fascinating, maybe morbidly so. But we're talking about the not like
an extension of what has been a longer line of trade requests and players also
just finding a way to get paid and then leave later on, or the
abolishment almost of big names leaving in free agency altogether, even though that's how
Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving ended up where they are. The Durant thing is
extreme because you have someone who is not just under contracts for another four years,
and this would be the issue regardless because of how long contracts are anyway,
But he signed a second deal with the Nets and then decided to do
this, and so it's and he's fresh. We're talking about less than a
year after signing that extension, I believe, unless I'm totally off there,
but with so much time left on his deal, in a situation that he
shows this wasn't restricted free agency, repressing not just his market value but his
ability to leave. He chose the Brooklyn Nets the first time and then shows
to extend, and so I think that's gonna be a big discussion, especially
if, as Chris notes, the Nets feel obligated to move KD for what
is not this all time haul. And look, they're out of their fucking
minds that they think they're gonna get the equip one of Anthy Edwards Carl Anthy
Towns in four first round picks. I think that they're not going to get
an all star plus draft picks either. I think they're gonna have to choose
one side or the other. As I've said many many times before, you
go the draft pick route, or maybe you get someone like a brandon Ingram
or you figure out a way to make it a complicated deal where Ben Simmons
is leading as well, and you get a Donovan Mitchell. I don't think
it's gonna be both. You're not going to get an entrenched star. Maybe
get a prospect that is all star potential. But I also don't think you're
gonna get a prospect at this point like a Scottie Barnes or Nevin Mobley.
And so I do think that they're gonna be accepting less than what they're asking
prices if and when they move him, I wouldn't rule out any more of
them by them, I mean Katie and Kyrie is sticking around in Brooklyn,
because that would be like the most fitting outcome to this fucking shit show that
it's been since they've showed up. But I'm with you Chris that I think
there's gonna be a lot of pressure from team governors to gain more control over
the way that players move. I don't I don't even want to. It
sounds ringy to frame it like that, but I do think that, you
know, player empowerment, it's always been I'm all for, I'm pro player.
I want to make that clear, everyone who gets paid, I want
them to get paid. If I say their contract is bad, it's from
a team perspective. If that's the money they were offered, that's their market
value, And under most players, I would say they're gonna be underpaid or
most stars. So all players to me are either underpaid or being paid at
market value because that was their market when they signed that deal. Now,
but we are talking about when we say player empowerment, you're talking about the
top like one percent of the NBA players that actually have it. I'll use
Rudy Gobert as an example. Do you think that he had the ability to
choose where he went in a trade? He didn't and he wanted to be
in Minnesota. I'm not saying that they rolled the dice on him or that
he had to settle. But that is a top twenty player, top twenty
five player if you want it, like in the NBA that he doesn't even
have the ability to just say, with the amount of time that's left on
his deal, I only want to go here. So when we're talking about
player, we're talking about the very select few and the way that things are
unfolding at the moment, even with Donovan Mitchell who the Jazz are shopping by
all appearances under their own volition. It's been common knowledge and you should check
out Nick's film school. Just did a podcast. It was a few days
ago. I only just listened to it today. I'm recording this on a
Sunday night with Spencer check It's Who's a Host radio show and ESPN seven hundred
in a Salt Lake City. I believe he had mentioned that, it's known,
he backed it up. It wasn't just like he's the first person to
say this. It's just been known throughout league circles that Dono Mitchell doesn't want
to be in Utah, and so did the idea that he would leave in
free agency when he got there in three years play a role in what the
Jazz are doing now. Maybe those are issues that are going to crop up,
even dating back to Anthony Davis trying to force his way out of New
Orleans when he had a full two seasons left on his deal. You know,
even if we're going back even further like when Kyrie Irving did it to
Cleveland, I think I think team governors are going to want to push back
on these trade demand types and also when players are giving them a short list
and they know that's player empowerment. Is KD is gonna absolutely have a saying
where he's going. Mollie Beasley did not have a saying whether he went to
Utah or not. Bradley Beal should probably be in like the tier below,
but he hasn't no trade claw, so he's an exception there. Lebron could
pick where he wants to go. Patrick Beverley can't, Boyan Bardonovitch can't.
And I'm just throwing random names out here. Frank Nilikina can pick wherever he
wants to go, but Luka Dancers can't. So my point here is I
don't know that we've veered too far into this actually becoming a problem again.
The Kevin Durant example is so extreme. What you worry about is his exact
circumstances becoming an exemplar for other players down the line. And you don't want
to constantly as an organization have the threat of a player being able to get
out under looming over your head. You. That's why contracts exist in a
sense. Yeah, if they want to sign one plus once and you're willing
to give that to them, then yes, you've put an onus of you've
put the onus on yourself, given them a ton of leverage. But if
you have someone under a four year no option deal like extension as as kd
is, you're supposed to be able to buy some security there. And I
think that that's going to be a huge sticking point among the team governors in
addition to some other things. But I think that just the player movement in
general, that's going to be something that gets talked about. On the flip
side of that, you could argue that, well, team sign players then
immediately just trade them, looking at Allah Blake Griffin, and so if they
have the right to do that, why isn't the player of a right to
get out. I don't know that that's right. I don't know that that's
wrong. Like they're they're signing a contract, that's something that they need to
think, they're thinking about that their agents are negotiating, and that's part of
just the gig. Everyone has aspects of their job that they don't like.
Having to relocate on a whim is part of an NBA players get. In
addition to many other things appearances, they have to deal with all the victrol
on social media. So I'm not saying what they do is easy, but
that has to be factored in and if you're a team governor in this situation
specifically, to bring it back to Chris's question in full circle, if Kevin
Durant is able to get to let's say Miami or Phoenix at this point and
not even the Nets sending him to another team that wasn't not on the list
because they're worried about sort of burning bridges with other stars, with player agents
in general who wanted their their talent on a team that's going to I don't
use the word accu asked or even say pand or two, but to at
least feel obligated to take what the player wants when leaving into account. There
are teams, many of them, most of them that are going to think
along those turns that they don't want to find themselves in a position to disenchant
other future players and then agents that they have and I'm not even saying Kevin
Durant specifically, but agents in general looking at the situation, they don't want
to single themselves out in a bad way. I don't know what the fix
is there, but there's also teams. You could argue that, well,
you know, they're not even they they're able to move players because there's like
this myth that they can't pay them. And that's why I expect the the
team governors are going to bring up players you draft should count less against the
salary cap or not count towards the luxury tax bill when you've kept them for
X amount of years or whatever it is. And I don't know. Look,
I'm not gonna cape for billionaires. And I understand why people would say,
well, they should just pay them and they pay the luxury tax.
I'm with you, but that's not gonna that's not gonna resonate with the actual
team governors, with the billionaires they're in control of these teams. I don't
know what the solution is though. I don't know, especially in the Kevin
Durant instance, and I could imagine that negotiations will get ugly if this situation
specifically ends with him going to Miami or Phoenix. When in theory and this
is not you know, oh, we have to think about you know,
one of the one a top one fifty player was moved, was there a
better package out there? You can look, it's Kevin Durant. Every team,
if given the opportunity of the press right, would trade for Kevin Durant.
And so if Kevin Durant said, I will play for any organization,
No, not all of them are gonna put their best ships on the table.
But there would have been others in theory that can beat the offer of
a Phoenix in Miami, but they wouldn't because they didn't want to run the
risk of having a player in Kadi who didn't want to be there. So
yeah, this is all of this is just going to be fascinating to watch
unfold because it's going to have very big implications on how CBA negotiations go in
addition to just many other things. We do have another question about the Well,
no, this wasn't that one, so let's just keep moving on in
order. David kay, I hope I'm pronouncing that right from YouTube? Ask
can you power rank your title contenders? David, This was a good question.
It was also a mean question. I want to point out none of
this is written in stone, mostly because we know that there are some trades
that could still go down this year and I really have to sit and think
even more about it, and I took like I came up with my top
seven and it might even be top eight, and it's pride and on the
rosters staying the same right now. It took me forever to put them in
the right order. So as of now, I have the Nuggets at one.
I think that with the defense, excuse me, they're gonna get from
KCP and Bruce Brown. It had layers to their rotation. The bench still
worries me a little bit, but you're getting back Michael Porter Junior and Jamal
Murray health concern sure, I don't really care about Jamal Murray. He's going
to be fine. Acls aren't the injuries that they used to be. He
is just an absolute workaholic and a super tough guy. Their rosters so well
balanced near the top that I think this is the year for them, and
I'm rolling the dice on MPJ and Jamal Murray Bolts staying relatively if not super
healthy, being able to take the load off Yokich. I'm also banking on
we know Murray's played even as inconsistent, He's been at a sustained all star
level on offense. I'm betting on Michael Porter Junior getting back to you know,
the twenty twenty two twenty one season that earned him the Max's extension,
not fully guaranteed, but that that large extension he signed. The Nuggets are
There's some matchups I don't love for them, including this next team, but
I think that they're gonna take a lot of people off guard. And it's
wild to me that when we're talking about the top five or so teams that
I don't hear them mentioned enough, at least nationally. Denver fans, Nuggets
fans, and there are a lot of smart basketball fans in general that know
how good they could be. I have the Warriors at two, and you
give them the benefit of the doubt. I think Steph is maybe the second
best player in the NBA right now, one of the three best players for
sure. I'd be honest at number one, and then I haven't really gone
through who I have after that. I think that Klay Thompson's gonna have a
better year than he did, like the partial season plus playoffs, he was
back just having more game time under his legs. Draymond Green, They're gonna
be moments where you where he's maddeningly bad on offense, but he is a
transcendent defender. They have Cavon Loudi back. You lose Auto Porter Junior.
That worries me a little bit. You also lost Gary Payton in the second
if that worries me a lot as well when looking at their defense. But
you sign Dante de Vincenzo, who's just an other worldly fit for them.
I like the Jamichael Green edition. I don't think he's gonna give you as
much as Otto Porter did, but he certainly replaces the Elitza. There Where
I do worry and why I don't have this team at number one, and
why I'm not even sure I want to put them at number two is Steph
feels like they're only certifiable star on the roster and they are going to be
relying more on kids. What does Wiseman look like? How much is cominga
playing? I think Moody just based on somebody like that. Dude is ready.
He's going to plug right and rotation and be fine. Does Jordan Pool
have a nice follow up campaign? Those are still questions, But the Warriors
played fantastic basketball that season. They won the title. They beat really good
teams to get there, including that Boston Celtics squad. I just think that
they do deserve a level of the benefit of the doubt here. I have
the Celtics student I have the Bucks at number three. There's the Chris Middleton
injury to think about. Their bench depth isn't spectacular either, but Brook Lopez
Janna sent to couple Chris Middleton, Drew Holiday. It's tough to cobble together
a four man combination in the league that has that has the possibility of being
better than that quartet. I think it's Look, Chris Middleton needs to be
healthy. That's a big one. I think the Bucks are probably coming out
of the East if he stays healthy in the playoffs. That's no. I
don't mean any disrespect to Celtics fands there. I do have the Celtics at
number four. The Malcolm Brogdon edition is just perfect. They have eight ridiculously
good players on their team now. And here's the other thing. None of
them are bad defenders. I think you can quibble over whether you think Malcolm
Brogden is an average defender or an above average defender. But Jason Tatum,
Jalen Brown, Marcus Smart, Robert Willingams, the third, Al Horford,
Grant Williams, Derek White, Malcolm Brogden, that eight man rotation is all
really good defenders. I still think it would be nice if they had like
a primary table center that is fits that bill in every sense of the word.
But it's twenty twenty two. I don't want to find synonyms for conventional
point guard, is my point here. So I just think that they're deeper
and Tatum and Brown are still young, so that either of them can get
better. Robert Willingams a third could get better and be be healthier. They
are in the East. It's the Bucks and the Celtics and everyone else right
out of me. I have the Clippers at number five. This one was
tough, even if I'm giving benefit of the doubt to Kawai and Paul George
to remain healthy. I need to see what John Wall looks like on this
team. Can they add the element of speed that he brings to because I
know they like to slow down. But does he also give them just someone
who can take them through the motions of their their offense in general, which
is things that they need at times when the half court sets bogged down and
you just need someone on a different level as a facilitator, as a rim
pressure guy from Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. So I like the addition,
but there's still just there's some questions here for me. But they're they're deep
team. They're so deep, and they're deep with wings too, And now
that they could trade a future first round pick, I keep an eye on
them or the trade market. They're a team that could slingshot up my rankings
by offseason's end, and I think that they're gonna be a lot of people's
titles pick and I can't go against it. I have a Sons at number
six, and again this is pre kd. Tray. If they're able to
pull it off, They're some of their key members, including Devin Booker,
are young enough that they're going to continue to get better. Cam Johnson,
mcaal Bridges, DeAndre Etan's back. You can't running this thing back, almost
exactly, adding you know Josh akoge having Damien Lee, okay, fine,
bringing back as mac Biambo. You lose JaVale McGee, Dario starts could be
healthy. That's gonna be different. Does Landry Shammitt have a more consistent season
where he actually feels present on the court a little bit more, perhaps this
team is still gonna be really good. Chris Paul's another year older. They
just put together one of the most dominant regular seasons ever, really and then
proceeded to get balanced in the second round by being trucked by the Dallas Mavericks.
It feels I don't think it's stale. We're in year two of this
CP three corps, but just the circumstances by which we've gotten here they worry
me. And if you stay the same with the Nuggets and the Clippers getting
healthier, the Warriors even being healthier, like we didn't see agains, Draymond,
Clay and Steph played together basically until the playoffs. It's just not the
time to have stood pat and made marginal if no improvements. So that's why
the k D trade for them specifically looms big. I have the Sixers at
number seven to round out my list. I think James Harden's gonna have a
bounce back year. They're a team that could climb these rankings. He might
be a really good dark horse MVP bet. I haven't looked at those odds
specifically yet. Maybe he's high enough just the fact that he took a pay
cut which I don't necessarily advocate for, but he said that he was considering
it, and he did what he said that he was going to do,
and then there's reports about him being in shape and healthy, and we don't
really hear anything about James Harden's fitness over the off season. I feel like
something has finally clicked for him, that he knows he's not going to be
able to skate by by asking out from these teams, and that he's going
to be under even more of a microscope now because he forced his way to
Brooklyn, a place he wanted to be with teammates he wanted to play alongside,
and then forced his way out. I actually don't have a problem with
his decision because clearly Brooklyn is a dumpster fire, and I wouldn't want to
have Kyrie irving time I livelihood of Kyrie irving at all. So I think
that you know, is fine, But I just feel like something's gonna click
with him. And you talk about now if in bets healthy, Tyris,
Max's your third option. We saw him flourish last year when that happened.
I think the rosters a lot deeper and more well balanced. They have perimeter
defenders who are actually mobile in PJ Tucker, Danthe Melton, Daniel House,
all of those guys should be able to shoot the three ball at at a
high clip. Tobias Harris, like quietly had some really nice moments in the
postseason as well. This team, it'll be tough for them to make any
major changes over the course of the regular season, but they're not barren of
salary matching tools, so and they can trade some first round equity. They're
just a team I'm watching, and then I do have I threw an eight
here. I don't trust this pick because I do think they'll break it up,
but the nets have to be somewhere. I don't trust them. And
if you said Katie and Kyrie stayed in Brooklyn, I'm not gonna put them
to win the title. I don't think i'd have in my top five.
But we got to talk about them. I'm just having Katie, Kyrie,
Nick Klaxton coming back. Ben sim excuse me forgot about him. You bring
Patty Mills back. Cam Thomas might have a pre B breakout year. They
really like Dayron Sharp. Maybe he gets more run. Joe Harris being healthy's
huge seth Curry and Harris are both the ideal superstar compliments on the offensive end.
I think again, if they keep this team together. I even love
the Royce O'Neil fit. I think he'll be better on defense than people are
crediting. It's just he was in Utah where he was over leveraged for years
on end. When looking at the perimeter, I don't know that they have
enough defense if they hit on the TJ. Warren signing, though, while
keeping Kyrie and KD and then Ben Simmons is healthy and on the court,
they're a team with championship up side. I would never invest in it if
everyone stays together, but they do need to be mentioned. Fascinating question.
It's subject to change. And my title pick, I'm not making a title
pick, though I'm ranking my title contenders. I will make my title pick
closer to the regular season. I don't even know if anyone cares but my
title pick, but I just want that on this record. Aiden from YouTube
asked which player does advanced that's hate but the eye test love. So I
set some parameters here just because I don't want to be penalizing like players who
were in there rookie or sophomore seasons, which immediately took out Poku because he's
a player that you watch and even if he's out of control, I think
you love him, but advanced stats do not like him. I was surprised
to find. And then also, like a Cam Thomas feels like he could
eventually become the answer to this question. But again, I didn't want to
pick a rookie or a sophomore. So my actual pick, and I'm gonna
even an honorable mention here, I was just not surprised at how much advanced
stats did not love Powell because I did some advanced stats research. This isn't
just me like doing this off the cuff. The one I'm picking, I
absolutely know and then just made sure. But I'm just shocked because Norm Powell
plays the type of game, especially the past few years, hates threes,
gives you rim pressure. Not a great defender, but like is like has
We'll see how he does after this latest injury, but he can like move
around and give you some defense at the two and the threess there. So
I was a little bit surprised about that, and he's played for like sometimes
advanced stats could be skewed when you're playing for really bad teams and you're just
super high volume or just I guess heavily impacted by by the team's performance overall.
But he was Pile was part of like the best Raptors teams in Raptors
history over the past couple of years. So that shocked me a little bit.
My answer is Tyler hero right now, advanced stats, when you look
at efficiency, his ability to maybe carry lineups on his own or elevate lineups
on his own, they don't love him. The single Advanced metrics don't love
him. When you look at regularize adjusted plus minus from NBA shot charts,
he ranks like in the bottom one hundred of the league. I think this
past season I lost his place, or maybe it was a three year rolling
average I looked at, and so he was pretty low there. He ranked
in the three year rolling average of regularize adjusted plus minus, he ranks five
hundred and seventy fifth, and so we're talking about like, yeah, that's
low, and we're talking about that's five seventy five out of fewer than seven
hundred players or seven fifty players. He ranked five seventy five out of seven
seventy five, and so they could like, that's just not that's not a
great standing. And yet you watch him, Yeah, you could see some
of the shot selection where that stuff if he doesn't get to the rim or
the freeze from a line of time. But he did. Man, it's
just crafty. He can move away from the ball. He could really knock
down these quick fire threes. Looks very comfortable operating off the dribble. He's
I think he's kind of improved his decision making as a passer and could throw
some like really flashy smart passes in the half court. Not someone that will
while you there. You watch him, though, and I think you feel
him as an impact player, and yet the metrics don't love him. And
I'll give an honorable mention here. I don't think everyone likes watching him,
which is why I didn't pick him. But Colin Sexton would be another good
one here. Colin Sexton, by the way, as of recording this,
still still still a free agent, so doesn't seem happy with the Cleveland Cavaliers
his offer. But yeah, anyway, Oscar asked, this is from We're
moving on to our Twitter questions now. Thank you for the YouTube questions.
The again, our YouTube chanal is in the fledgling stages, but help us
build it up. You can ask questions there. Oscar asked what was Michael
Jordan's worst Finals game? Being so young and not having a recollection of what
his games actually looked like in the finals, for pretty much all of them,
I have like the very early childhood memories of those dynastic bulls. But
I went by game score on stat head, and two stood out. The
only two Finals games where he has a game score under ten, and the
lowest one is the seven point seven game score. It was against the Jazz
in ninety seven. The final score of that game, by the way,
seventy eight to seventy three. The Jazz won that one, but that's just
wow. It was game four of the ninety seven Finals. Seven point seven
game score. He was eleven of twenty seven from the field, eleven of
twenty three on two, zero four from three, didn't take a free throw.
True shooting percentage of forty point seven still dropped twenty two points four assists
on three turnovers, negative one point six box plus minus in that game.
The second least effective game for him in the Finals came in ninety six against
the Seattle SuperSonics ri ip even though the Oklahoma State under are still the same
organization. This one was also Game four. Bulls lost at one O seven
to eighty six. They got absolutely she lacked. Jordan was six of nineteen
and forty one minutes oh of two on three pointers. He was six of
seventeen on two pointers thirty five point three percent, eleven of thirteen at the
foul line though, which I think salvage a lot of his score more turnovers
than assists. He doubled that up four turnovers to two assists and then twenty
three points. I'd probably argue that that has to be his worst playoff game,
even though the other one has a lower game score, just because the
Bulls were blown out. He shoots a lower percentage on two's got to the
foul line though, so I think that matters the pressure there. But to
double up on your assist the turnover ratio like that's not great. And it
also just happens to be the lowest, the single lowest box plus minus by
a mile that he's posted in the finals. So that is gonna be my
final answer. Game four against the Seattle SuperSonics in nineteen ninety six was Jordan's
worst NBA Finals game, and it doesn't It doesn't matter because the Bulls went
on to win the championship that year. Anyway, Grant asked, do you
think we can moneyball basketball? I guess if we got Brad Pitt to run
a team, maybe My serious answer is no, and I saw I think
people responded to this sweet by saying, yes, I can't get there.
I can't get there because in baseball it's different where it feels like the aggregate
product is like at the same time standalone versus by committee, and there is
an element of teamwork there. But you can plug and play each player's individual
performance certainly into the offense the batting order, without regard for the context of
the rest of its team, if that makes sense. And so whereas in
basketball, if you were just searching for the cheapest players who provide value looking
at points per game, they have to operate all in tandem at the same
time, unless you're thinking that, oh, we can go with a bunch
of really good one on one players without regard for let's say, accuracy from
beyond the art. But you can't do that. You have to factor in,
well, how well do they shoot off the catch, Can they cut
to the basket, can they know? How are they as a ball handler?
And are they a good playmaker? Do they get tunnel vision which their
turnovers? Like? There's just like there's a team impact in basketball that's more
complicated than baseball on offense specifically, and I mean even on defense too,
where you're basically it's a zone. Let's just say for MLB for baseball players,
whereas in basketball, like there's a bunch of switching, there's a bunch
of difficult reads that you're gonna have to make. I'm not saying it's a
harder sport. I'm saying it's more of a buy committee sport. Even though
basketball you can have a singular player impact the game way more than anybody else
in baseball. That might be the argument here if you wanted to money ball
by saying, well, can you build a dominant team with one star and
then Taylor the roster perfectly to his needs very cheaply? Maybe, But does
that really constitute moneyball? So you guys can let me know if I'm way
off with this answer, But I just think that basketball is done too much
in concert for it to be moneyballed. Karagan asked, let's assume Donovan Mitchell
wants out of Utah. We don't need to assume, fy I car again,
we know that he wants out of Utah, but it's fine playing there
until his contract is up. So another three years, three full seasons before
he hits free agency. For anyone at home who was wondering, is there
a path three Utah to build a contender around Donovan before he leaves? Is
there a way to convince him to resign in Utah? I think if he
becomes supermacs eligible that might help him resign. But I'm with you in the
sense that can you win a title, maybe that convinces him to stay or
does that make him just as likely to leave because he can say, well,
what else am I going to do here? I already want a championship,
so I don't. I would just say winning is the best remedy for
keeping him long term if you wanted to, and your biggest hope of doing
that would be to win at the highest level sustainably, and also with him
as the focal point. You don't necessarily want to displace him, So when
you go about building a contender, I think you need got another primary scoring
option, and then a bunch of really good defenders and shooters like have these
two. And then you also want him playing alongside someone who can play off
the ball as well, so that they can trade off. Mitchell, we
know can play off the ball, is a pretty good catch and shoot guy.
His other teammate needs to do that. How do you find I think
it starts with finding his equal or his superior on the roster, who is
going to do more on offense so that it feels like they would be an
easier ego fit than it was with Gobert, who I think believes and rightfully
so, that he's been criminally underrated because the value provides on defense, but
his role on offense has been it's limited because of his skill set, but
it's also been limited by design. In Utah, we saw him do more
with the French national team. I don't think that he could be like Karl
Anthony Towns or even a team in the post, but that's just you know,
you need someone who I think is going to be on that same similar
offensive level with Donovan. Maybe it's just an older player with more superstar goodwill
built up where Gobert and Mitchell kind of popped on identical trajectories. It felt
like, so even though Gobert was there first, you have to identify that
player and then get him. Who's that player? And it's not going to
be the Kevin Duryan. It's not gonna be the Bradleybald has to be a
younger player. If Shee Giler's Alexander all Sudden became available in Oklahoma City,
it would be him. Would be great, but he's not gonna become available
anytime soon. Could you get Pascal Siakam out of Toronto? That's someone who
is probably like Donovan Mitchell's equal when you're looking at in terms of their their
star standing a better defense than him, and would I might prefer Pascal Siakham
overall, but that would be the type of talent that you're going after.
Again, I'm trying to figure like realistically, you could also go like the
route of, well, can we roll the dice on a youngster with star
potential who's kind of a distressed asset right now? I'm thinking of Michael Porter
Jr. Of course, where he is ridiculously good. Maybe you buying him
being an off senensive star, but Mitchell is better right now, and he's
going to be more important just because of his facilitation and his ability to operate
more from the point of attack. But he's also like kind of the veteran
in that instance, so he's above Michael Porter Junior. I just don't think
that doesn't fast track the Jazz to contention at all. But I think you
start with something along the lines of that, and the Siakham one would would
certainly be preferable. Or let's just say, I mean two ways to go
about this. Let's just say Kevin Durant trade is happening, and then with
the Pelicans, and then and they're giving up brandon Ingram, but the Nets
have decided they want to steer really hard into the draft pick direction. Can
you latch onto that trade and get brandon Ingram. Can you latch onto a
trade with the Raptors and get o Gianna Nobi and Kevin durantial depending on how
Brooklyn feels once more, whether they actually want to compete. I think that's
what you're probably looking at. The star market is tough to read right now,
because again you can't go the oh, if Kde becomes available, if
by Beil becomes available, I don't love the bilfit anyway, but the timelines
are just so disparate that I do know timeline is like this overrated buzzword,
but you want someone who's on a similar trajectory to Mitchell. The issue here
is, though, Karagan, you would really have to ignore the writing on
the wall. You have enough pick equity to go out and get involved in
some spicy negotiations, but you would have to ignore writing on the wall because
the only reason you would go after said star is if your new Donovan was
open to staying, if not outright staying, and we just don't have that
intel right now at I bank on the fact that he has not communicated with
the Jazz that he is willing to stay. You go to Ben Simmons route
too, speaking of just assets, and yes the Jazz can have both of
them because they signed to Mitchell. They're not trading for both of them.
For anyone who's going to point that out, interesting question. I just think
it's too far gone at this point, and the hoops you need to jump
through it begins with finding the other star. That's what it begins with,
and I just don't think they're even necessarily open to that without actually knowing whether
Mitchell would be willing to stay. Next question comes from Josiah. Is there
precedent for an inefficient score through three seasons like Barrett becoming an efficient player.
You hear the word inefficient and it feels insulting RJ. Barrett, but it's
also just the truth. He's averaging seventeen point five points through his first three
seasons on fifty one point one true shooting, has yet to even really sniff
league average true shooting through his first three seasons. That is a problem.
I think what's difficult about him is you can't just plug in the numbers and
see who else comes up and spit out and you know, Russell Westbrook meets
the benchmark of seventeen points on under fifty two true shooting, But his role
has just been so different and inconsistent. He's at once been held back and
brought along slowly, but then also diversified. Is he on the balls?
He away from the ball, And he was finally given the keys towards the
end of last season. So when you actually he's compared most to a Jimmy
Butler, I think because people see his defensive potential and that sort of tracks
just as someone who was he played more than Jimmy out of the gate under
TIBs, but who has been under utilized or at least limited in his uses
on offense. And it's not going to be till later until he explores his
full scoring Arsenal I think a better comparison. It's not play style, but
I'm just looking at matter of opportunity and trajectory might be Bradley Beal. So
when you put in the numbers of players who averaged at least three excuse me,
average at least fifteen points in their first three seasons with a true shooting
percentage below fifty two, Bradley Beeal is one of the ones that's bit out.
Kemba Walker spits out of as well, But like his off the dribble
jumper, all of a sudden started falling, but he at least looked like
he could take it. RJ. Barrett I still have questions about the off
the dribble jumper. You could even go with, like, ah, if
you really wanted to, like a Tyreek Evans here where, depending on how
which end of the spectrum you want to go on where, Yeah, he's
gonna have a lot of inefficient seasons, but he'll have Let's look at the
season at Memphis, the best season of his career where he pops and maybe
that sustains it didn't for him. He had a whole bunch of off court
issues as well, but that that could be something to look at. I
don't think we're excuse me to say, I don't think we're dealing with the
second coming of like Russell Westbrook level detrimental inefficiency. And even Russ had some
higher efficiency season. He has spit out by the way in the parameters that
I said, I won't read all of them, just because there was thirty
eight names including r Chase that came back out, But like maybe even I
thought about a Jamal mash Mashburn, but I have hope that RJ will be
more efficient, and mash Burn was never actually efficient. That was the name
that's bringing to mind. And then I looked and he just wasn't efficient at
all. So could it be a John Wall type thing too, where he
has some good three point shooting season, some really bad ones, but his
overall good finisher. RJ barretts yet to show that. But he was putting
a ton of pressure on the basket towards the end of this past year.
I liked the Bradley Beal parallel here, just because he's probably R. Jarress.
Probably he is similar to Jimmy Butler in play style. But when you
look at how Beal was brought along with wall already there, it took him
a while to get more offensive agency. R J. Barretts definitely bounced around
a little bit more. But Beal. Look, fifty one point three two
shooting, fifty one point three true shooting. Oh my god, guys,
through his first three seasons and since then, and he's not even coming off
Let's be clear, he's not coming off a banner season by any stretch.
It was one of the like the worst years of his career. But you
go from fifty one three in the first three seasons to fifty seven six over
his next eight, and that's including you know you want to throw, I'm
willing to throw a last year out just for a minute. He didn't even
play in half the games, was injured. He was at fifty eight,
So it's not like this huge difference anyway over the six seasons. Sorry,
the math was on there, So fifty eight and the six seasons after his
third that's you know, and it's also someone who is similar that he needs
to be used in a bunch of different ways. Where Bradley Beale's best off
as a secondary maestro maybe pick and roll runner, that's probably RJ. Barrett's
best role, if it even is his best role. Bradley Beale has never
been like this high end guy getting to the basket, but if he's gonna
improve as a finisher, RJ like that could be just a different way that
he's scoring. And you saw that Bradley Beale. Look, he didn't have
the nicest start to his three point shooting in his career either. He he
uh, oh, no he did. I'm trying to remember. Yeah,
a lot of it off the catch, and we've seen it kind of dip
over the past few seasons as he's gotten more on ball agency. Is that
something with Barrett where maybe like the jumper, efficiencies necessarily never where we want
it to be, but he gets to the line at a healthy clip,
improves is finishing around the basket and is able to prop up better than average
league efficiency and even just to catch and shoot shooting though threes, those are
still gonna be a part of his offense. Even at his best. That's
the way for him to bring up his efficiency. So if you're if you're
asking me whether I think RJ. Barrett will become an above average player on
offense when looking at his efficiency, I'm going to guess yes. But if
you want to just look at the raw harming jers of where he's at through
season number three, it's fair to be concerned. I just think we haven't
seen him used in constant enough states or be able to explore the more under
explored parts of his game often enough to make that declaration. So it's not
if you're expecting him to be an All NBA player or an All Star player.
That ship is far from sale. That is certainly on the table,
even if it's not the most likely outcome. The NHL Chicken as we always
talk about what teams will be better next season, which team will fall off
the hardest next year, like the Nixon Nets this past year, I'm not
so I'm not going to pick the Jazz for this one just because they're getting
they're sort of tearing it down by design. The three that stand out to
me, and I'm gonna rank them in order of well, I'm not gonna
rank them. So I'm gonna throw this name out this team out. First.
I have the Bulls, who didn't get worse, Maybe they got a
little better. When you're looking at Andre Drummond becoming their backup five Willans the
ball ever be healthy Patrick Williams could be healthy for a full season. That
stuff matters. But they fell off last year towards the end, and so
could this season if it's bad, just be an extension of that. Then
I have the MAVs. They lost Jawn Brunson. It didn't replace him,
and you don't just replace Jalon Brunson, even if he is of secondary importance
compared to Luca. So they're a team at could fall off, but they
still have a lot of talent, and I could see their defense still being
really good. If Spencer did what he has like a great campaign, you
wind up replacing a lot of what Bronson did. To be fair, they're
well short of title contention. I wouldn't call them a team that would improve,
but they could definitely stop the floor from falling out underneath them. My
actual pick is and I do this every year, so you're welcome to the
fans. It could be the Grizzlies just because I don't think it's through any
fault of their own. Although the two things I all point out is what
happens with Jaron Jackson Jr. How long has he got out to start the
season, if at all? What does he look like when he comes back?
Those three ball fall at a higher clip once he gets there. And
they kind of made another bet on their development by letting Kyle Anderson walk.
They're basically saying that Zayre Williams is going to be ready, that excuse me,
Desmond Baine is ready that they're going to probably use Jake La Rabia or
David Roddy or maybe both of them right off the bat. That's quite the
flex for a team. I was just number two in the West, and
so they're sitting pretty to a certain extent. But the degree to which they
valued their own play years has almost created this variance and outcomes for them next
year. So if Zier Williams doesn't make a leap forward, if Jaren Jackson
Junior miss his time, if you don't get anything out of Roddy or La
Ravia, you should still be a good team. Will you be as great
as you were this season? Will your record without job be as good this
season if he misses any time, then the other part of this is the
conference. We're talking about a West that's going to get a fuller strength Denver
and Clippers team back into the fold. The Lakers might not suck like if
Jaffy Davis is healthier and Lebron plays in most of the games. Even if
they have Russ, they should still be better. The Minnesota Timber was just
traded for Rudy Gobert, and whatever you think of them, they got better.
The Pelicans are adding Zion Williamson. The Warriors aren't going anywhere. I
don't expect the Suns to go anywhere. I doubt Dallas sort of falls off
a cliff even without Brunson. So the Grizzlies, I'm not predicting that they'll
miss the playoffs right now. I haven't even gone through what I think the
playoff picture will will look like, but it's gonna be tousla and I mean
technically speaking that Kings could be better, and I think they will be a
little bit better. We'll have to see. But Portland, if Damian Lillard's
fully healthy, they they feel like they have enough defensive talent to make some
noise around him. That's gonna be tough for Memphis. That would be my
pick right now, but that comes to the caveat. I've picked them to
miss the playoffs in each of the past three years, and I've just been
dead ass wrong. So if you need me to eat shit Grizzlies fans,
I already have and I'm I'm tempting it again November and Denmark says, it
seems to me that today we have a larger number of quote unquote blueprints NBA
teams are trying to build contenders around like Elite Wings gives. Clippers in the
celth discuss an example, Elite Centers, the Sixers and Nuggets, twin Towers,
the Calves and Wolves, small ball shooting, Golden State Wars as the
example or some combo of these. Thought, I mean, you're not wrong,
these are yeah, I you know what I'm I don't even mean just
sound dismissive when I'm telling you're right, I would agree with you. And
like there's also just the position element of it, which is probably the Elite
Wings when you look at the Clippers in Boston, but you have teams who
are also trying to straddle both lines. I would use Boston as an example.
I'd use Golden State as an example. So you have that in addition
to there are these teams where no you're not running duel bigs, but you
have the Sixers and Nuggets trying to build around Uel Embid. Now you have
some teams with two bigs or even the fucking Magic, You're gonna have like
quadruple bigs at this point with Isaac and Ben Caro and Wendell Carter Junior and
Mobamba, they might run out triple big line. I'm similar with the Calves
did with marketing Alan and Mobli And look, I kind of respect. First
of all, this is a great I think this is a great question,
and it also shows I think in a scoot understanding of a game, because
there are people that just they look at shot charts and they say that the
game is being played. Why would you want to watch the same thing over
and over again. Look where all the teams are coming from. Just because
their shot profiles might be comparable and they not all are, doesn't mean that
the styles are uniform. They are varying, and there's different ways to get
to the same endgame. And that's what's fun. To watch. There are
teams that employ more off ball movement than other, there are teams that are
employing more speed than other, And so I think it's a really good observation
where it does feel like when we've gotten the point where people think that just
because we saw all the talk about get to the rim and shoot threes and
get to the foul line, like that's just common sense. That's about spacing
court geography. Not all court geographies created equal or in the same way,
even if it's aim, even if it's even if the resulting geography is you
know, a kindred spirit. So I actually this is a great question and
or at least a great observation is I think that there's more stylistic variants in
the league today than there's ever been. Let me know what y'all think about
that, though, thank you for that little thought November Denmark. My thought
is that you're right. Daniel Mortensen asked, can you do a video on
who out of the lottery teams from last year could make the jump like Cleveland
did this year? Bringing it to this episode, Maybe I'll clip it and
make its its own YouTube video as well. So this was like kind of
hard and maybe the play in tournament has made that a little bit hard.
I wanted to pick something that wasn't obvious or cheating, So cheating would be
the Minnesota Timberwolves or the Pelicans because they were in the play in but they
ended up making the playoffs, so they were your seven eight seeds. Do
you pick the Blazers or the Lakers? No, you don't, because,
like they're not particularly young, and so it's the same story with if I
believed in the Knicks, which I won't say that I do, Like I
tried to avoid that, and even the Hawks, like they're just sort of
entrenched. They're not like super young anymore, and so they made the leap.
That's not as surprising as as it would be for other teams. I'm
looking at this, and then it's interesting because how many other squads or in
the earlier stages of their developments where you'd really have to step out on a
limb here. But you know what, I don't have a problem doing it
because I feel like people would have laughed if you said the Cavaliers were going
to win forty four games this past year. While Mobile and Garland missed some
time and Sextons miss basically the entire season, and Jared Allen got hurt towards
the end of the year and they lost Ricky rub would play super well and
they would lose him for the season, they have to move him. So
people would have told you that you were bonkers for saying that, and so
stepping out on these limbs is part and parcel of what we're doing. And
my pick, I feel like it's gonna be wrong, but my pick would
actually be And I think I thought about Orlando. I want to make that
clear. I just feel like with Ben Caron's rookie season and the year that
Suggs had last year, they're gonna need at least another season to let it
marinate. And Jonathan Isaac's coming back, that's a lot of integration. I
thought about the Pistons as well. I just I haven't seen enough of Ivy
and Duran together to know. I'm just so high on Kaide that he's best
player on an NBA championship team A tier. I could see them catching people
off guard and maybe like making a play in push. With that in mind,
they just didn't make enough material upgrades of veterans, you know, like
having bringing back Morvin Bagley, and they still have Kelly Olnick and Isaiah Stewart.
What does that front court rotation now look like with Duran? They do
have Jay and Ivy on so if he hits immediately, if Killian Hayes continues
improving like he did the end of last year's Deep Bay, a team to
watch for sure. I also this was my second choice. And maybe it's
just because they haven't moved Miles Turner or Buddy Healed yet, and they might,
but the Pacers, like, I'm just not gonna rule out them,
and like good being good, Tyres Haliburton Ready, they have Christian Marte microwave
score. Then you're adding Benedic mathin to this, to this corner. He
looked fantastic at points in Summer League. If Miles Turner stays healthy, you
have ohe Berset. Just why not it's the East or coached by Rick Carlisle,
Like I do think Kyle Burton's that good and that the surrounding talent right
now is at least that interesting. Jon Smith having to come on towards the
end of last season, maybe they're just that surprise team. I'm going to
pick against my better judgment because they're in the Western Conference. I'm going with
okay, see, and I think the argument against this, aside from they
play in the West, is their second most important player immediately, Chet Holmgren
is just a rookie. Fine fair. The other question will be you can
make the jokes about them shutting down guys at the end of the year,
but like, just look at how they're gonna juggle playing time. They have
so many guys on the payroll who at least deserve a shot to be tested
out. Can we guarantee that they're even gonna be playing their best players the
lion's share of the time, or caring about these higher stakes moments over player
development, which they're still in. What I'm just gonna say is the two
things that stay it out to me here are I just think their talents a
lot better than people give them credit for. Shake yourself. Xander is an
All Star, All NBA type player. We just need to see them play
for a full season, no shutdown business and stay healthy. Blue Dort really
good. Just you want more of him on offense. You'd liked him just
a little bit more of his threes, but you can attack in open spaces
and he's just a defensive brick wall. Then Chet Homegrin, Josh Giddy as
a passer, a rebounder, nice size on defense. You'd like to see
him score more, have better touch away from the basket to saw that type
of playmaker on here. The talent is just all over. Alexei Pokashevski is
someone who I thought didn't necessarily end the season this way, but started to
put things together, these coherent performances where he was impacting positively these minutes for
extended stretches. Darius Baisley, what he showed on defense last year? Will
you ever find his offensive niche niche? So yeah, there are some swing
pieces here. What does Zuzman Jang look like as a rookie someone who I
really like? Are they gonna be able to get enough shooting here? I
think keeping Kendrick's Williams extending him was big because that insinuates that they're not gonna
trade him down the line. So he's important to your floor spacing. So
is Pokashevski. Even shake gild Saxanders off the dribble shooting they have Mike Muskala.
I think that's why they eventually keep him around. They have more roster
decisions to do. I feel like this could be a really badass defensive team,
though, and if you're a badass defensive team, you can actually win
some games. So I don't expect them to be a playoff squad. And
I think if you forced me to, like pick which lottery I would start
cheating looking at like which lottery team's gonna be back in the playoffs, I'd
say the Wizards, even though they're not the younger one. But I was
stepping on the limit with it, okay, see, because I just think
that they've got the nice mix of defensive talent, probably just enough offense,
just enough intrigue everywhere. And finally, this was the point that I've been
leading up to here, the consolidation trade for Usman Jang. While it was
just three whatever heavily protected picks, it showed me that they are willing to
consolidate. Maybe the roster space is forcing their hand. They didn't have to
go that high for the number eleven pick, and they did, and so
that shows some level of urgency or interest in making waves now. And I
think that, just combined with sort of the flyers the wild cards on this
roster, makes them a team that could catch a hunt of people off guard,
even if they're not on the Cavs level of finishing six games above.
This last question will make this from Carson B. Cox, what do you
think of the most interesting lineups the Nuggets can put together this year? I
want to see bones, Jamal Murray, Bruce Brown, Michael Porter Jr.
And Yokich. Yeah, I'm with you on that lineup. I also want
to see sort of the skew defense. Where are you pulling Michael Porter Junior
for if Gordon's on the court, and then throwing Bruce Brown in there.
The two that I'm going to single out is give me Yokich with a fuck
ton of just defense. That isn't this offensive liability? And so you could
say that Bruce Brown might phone that, but Yokich cantabious cobopope, Bruce Brown,
Aaron Gordon and then Jamal Murray is fine, Like, give me your
two stars, surround them with a bunch of defense, and that's that's a
set. That amounts to basically pulling Michael Porter Junior. And that might be
how they close games just place of stronger defenders. I wouldn't be opposed to
like pull Murray from that just trying to get by, like Murray's resting,
Michael Porter Junior's resting. Throw Jeff Green into that with KCP, Gordon and
Bruce Brown. Just yokis with a ship ton of shooting not necessarily the most
bankable spacing. The one that I actually want to see, which is why
I saved it for last, is let's get weird and we're gonna do this
during Look, Yokich isn't gonna play for like between twelve and eighteen minutes every
game, whatever it ends up being, So you're gonna have filler time there.
Give me it's like smaller with I want Gordon and Michael Porter Junior the
front court with Bruce Brown KCP, and I think I want Bones Highland in
there. So just give me bonkers offense out of Porter Junior in Highland,
and then you have these good defenders in Gordon, Bruce Brown and KCP,
And then you're also the kind of position list not to the point where I
think you could switch everything on defense, But Bruce Brown can defend Biggs and
Smalls Dido for for Aaron Gordon KCP can defend like small through bigger wings Michael
Porter Junior is like a pretty good rim protector. It's like you kind of
him as your center on defense if you really need to. And then Bones
Tyland is just a offensive spark plug. I love love that kid. So
that would be the lineup I would want to see. It's just sort of
that you could call it like it's not Michael Porter Junior plus Bench, but
like, really, give Bones and Highland Michael Porter Jr. The keys to
your offense, try and surround them with enough defense to make it work.
I can't get over how much the Nuggets have opened up their realm of possibilities
by adding KCP and Bruce Brown Jr. This offseason. That'll do it for
me. If you're new to this podcast, please remember to rate, review
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We have a lot of fun around here, and you can ask me
questions that I will answer in future mail back episodes. I will start to
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about monitoring them. Thank you all for continuing to listen to this until next
time. Even the shout out to the one, the only, the legendary,
the untradeable, the untouchable Frank Nila Kina