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Hello, and welcome to the Dynasty
Dude Podcast. I'm your host, Corey

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Evans. Thanks for listening. This
week, I'm talking about lottery ticket players

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with twenty twenty three. I guess
came back from a trip to Vegas,

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so I'm in a gambling mood.
Figured it'd be a good topic to break

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down. So five names that are
lottery tickets. We don't know if they're

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going to be boom, bust,
feast or famine, hence the risk or

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gamble it's going to require to invest
in them for this upcoming season. Before

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I get to that, a few
reminders. First, don't forget for the

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rest of the month of July it
is the thirty percent off a Google met

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Roster call thirty minutes or one hour, take advantage of that. If you

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want to get on my calendar,
hit me up on social media that's Dynasty

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do Po on Twitter or Instagram,
Dynasty Dude on Facebook, or shoot me

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an email Dynasty Dupot at gmail dot
com. And then lastly, if you

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want access to one bonus show per
week and unlimited dmability, join Patreon five

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dollars minimum per month. And as
of this week, I'm starting to release

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my consolidated top fifty by position tiered
Dynasty rankings beginning with the quarterback Thatt.

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Series will last about a month or
so in terms of publishing week by week,

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then running back by receiver tight end
an eventual top one hundred. Those

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available only on Patreon in both podcast
form and Excel spreadsheets for you to reference,

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print out, visualize whatever you need
to dominate your Dynasty leagues. Once

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again, it's on Patreon. Five
dollar per month minimum. You can of

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course plect more per episode or per
month. Link in the show notes to

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join or out of the mobile app
website. You'll find me on there.

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Accordingly, let's get right to it. Lottery ticket players or twenty twenty three

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Up first, I'll have Javante Williams. He's twenty three. The latest status

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update from an ESPN article was that
Williams said the plans for endeavor to clear

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him for to start a training camp
and that he will practice in some capacity

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during the actual sessions. Day to
day head coach Sean Payton has been optimistic

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about Williams for most of the offseason. At the same time, Peyton has

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praised Samaj p Ryan asserted that he
will have a significant role in the Broncos

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offense. We cannot forget that Givanta
towards ACL in Week four of last season

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against the Raiders. It was not
a clean tear either, as Williams also

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toward the LCL on his right knee
in addition to suffering damage to his posterior

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lateral corner. Therefore, it was
a serious injury, sort of like JK

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Dobbins in the past, where it
was not only the ACL tear but additional

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structural damage. Javanta's four game sample
size from twenty twenty two should be dismissed

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because it was a limited data to
work with. His rookie output in twenty

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twenty one could be a good benchmark
for his future value and or usage.

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To recall, twenty twenty one was
a two oh three nine h three four

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rushing line four point four yards per
carry and a forty three sixteen three receiving

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line on fifty three targets. The
latest running back example we have of an

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ACL tear along with that further ligament
damage is as I mentioned JK Dobbins from

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last season. He actually returned in
Week three, but then sustained a setback

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in Week six, which then kept
him sideline until week fourteen, where he

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eventually returned to a previous form of
himself. It was not full one percent

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Dobbins, but it seemed close to
it. I tend to believe that Javanti

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Williams would be eased in to the
twenty twenty three campaign and that the publist

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is not out of the question.
After all, Denver made signing p Ryan

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a priority after edition out a two
year, seven and a half million dollar

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contract, and between Williams and p
Ryan, Sean Payton has been much more

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vocal and advocating for p ryan skill
set van Williams paid. His comments obviously

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about Williams have been more so on
the right track heading the correct direction of

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his time tail to return, whereas
p Ryan is the one receiving all of

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the positive jump beats about news,
his role, etc. So based on

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pure cost, p Ryan is the
more iCal option to acquire then Jivant.

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But jivanta ceiling is far superior and
higher than that of p Ryan, So

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that makes Javanta a lottery ticket with
the unknown role and how long will take

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him to be back to old form
from his post acl tear all those factors

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on a table Javanta is more of
an RB two, if not flex for

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me, than true RB one.
Long term, the RB one ceiling and

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donasy still exists, but don't pay
that price tag right now. For running

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back you won't be able to count
on that tour production for at least not

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in the short term. Up next
is Kyler Murray, who's twenty six.

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In August. Last week, Kyler
stated that his goal will be ready for

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week one. That's an optimistic and
perhaps unrealistic timeline. After Murray towards ACL

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fourteen last season. It's encouraging that
Kyler has been cleared for post surgery workouts,

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but as we know, it's a
long recovery back from a twenty ACL

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for any position, let alone a
quarterback who's dual threat pass and rush.

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Fortunately, murray l tear was clean, meaning no additional structural damage to other

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knee ligaments, and that could improve
his return Timetable co back is a unique

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situation because you have to be able
to pass footwork in the pocket, extend

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plays with your legs. It's not
as simple as we'll say a rob receiver

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tight end where you're pass catching.
Running Backs like Javonte Williams also more difficult

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because of the nature of the position. In the meantime, Arizona's left with

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veteran quarterback called McCoy and fifth round
rookie Clayton Tune, who comes to an

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illustrious college resume from Houston. Kyler
himself has been a fancy star for most

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of his four year NFL career to
this point. Diving deep into his stats,

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his career high marks annually by category. These are not necessarily one season,

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but just in general career best numbers
three thousand, nine seventy one yards

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passing, twenty six touchdowns, twelve
interceptions, sixty nine point two complete percentage

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rates, seven point nine yards press
attempt one hundred and thirty three rushes and

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enters your nineen yards rushing and eleven
rushing touchdowns. Those are clear cut quarterback

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one numbers if they were extrapolating to
the same season. The issue is we

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won't be able to count on that
level production in twenty twenty three unless Kyler

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is back for Week one. His
yearly fantasy finishes r QB six, QB

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three, QB ten, QB nineteen, QB nineteen being outlied because Kyler towards

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ACL in week fourteen. Outside of
that, you know, three campaigns,

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Murray has been a top ten quarterback. That means it's a quarterback one in

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a ten team or twelve team league. So we can assume one healthy and

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back in the field to value Kyler
as suck step being a quarterback one.

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The caveat is that we don't know
when that is going to occur in twenty

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twenty three. So in super Flex, if he's your quarterback one, treatments

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your quarterback two. In a redraft
or one quarterback Donasy league, utilize him

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as your quarterback two with an eventual
quarterback one outlook. In general, I

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think there's no better Bilo in Donasy
right now, especially in Superflex, than

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Kyler Murray based on his age,
pedigree, level, consistency in prior campaigns.

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There is the theory that Arizona will
to trade Kyler after this season if

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they are in the one on one
contention for twenty twenty four to draft someone

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like Caleb Williams. Even if that's
true, Kyler has established enough a baseline

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to become a starter elsewhere, So
in or out Arizona, Kyler is someone

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to trade were now by the discount
by the timeline that isn't necessarily here on

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the horizon to play in twenty twenty
three. My guess is that he's not

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rushed back a locking change between now
and then with his timetable to return,

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but from the Cardinals thrown off a
standpoint, why would you rush a franchise

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caliber player and Kyler back after three
towards ACL meek fourteen. That's such a

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late season tear that you're up against
the wall to return quickly as opposed to

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easing him back in making sure he's
close one hundred percent, if not fully

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recovered. Because of the injury.
It makes Kyler a lottery taken for twenty

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twenty three, especially those banking on
him returning immediate quarterback one Valley, because

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that is unlikely unless he clears some
major hurls between now and September. Up

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next is Calvin Ridley. He is
twenty nine in December. The last time

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we saw Calvin on the football fields
in twenty twenty one, he delivered a

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thirty one two eighty one to receive
an effort for nine point one years pertech

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on fifty two targets and five games
played. Since then, he has been

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suspended, traded, from Atlanta at
Jacksonville and now reinstated into the NFL.

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If you bought low on really during
that span of time, then you're currently

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sitting on an appreciated asset that you
can need to utilize in twenty twenty three

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for outputs or flip for a first
or player vital value at running back,

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wide receiver, tight end, even
potentially quarterback and super reflective. Someone is

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in desperate need of a possible wide
receiver one. Candidates, if you're a

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fan of my work, you know
that I'm out on Ridley at cost this

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season, no matter the format,
Redraft or Dynasty. In fact, all

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things being equal, I prefer to
roster Christian Kirk in Dynasty. After his

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breakout first season with Jacksonville and Trevior
Lawrence in twenty twenty two, Kirk had

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an eighty four eleven O eight to
eight logue, thirteen points years protect on

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one hundred and thirty three targets.
At this point, Ridley is the assumed

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wide receiver one for the Jaguars.
While that may be true, banking on

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Calvin to return to old form and
provide longevity is a risky proposition in Dynasty

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compared to redraft and redraft you're selected
really for one year. Perhaps he is

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a stable wide receiver two with potential
for more upside week to week. Ridley's

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standout NFL season actually came back in
twenty twenty with the Falcons after a ninety

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thirteen, seventy four nine efforts,
one hudred and forty three targets for fifteen

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point three yards pertetch. That year
he was the PPR Wide Receiver five.

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We thought at that point he was
ascending into Alpha wid receiver one territory.

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But outside of that campaign, Ridley's
PPR finishes as a pro are wide receiver

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twenty two, wide receiver twenty seven
and wide Receiver one O two. That

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data suggests twenty eighteen twenty nineteen,
which were the wide receiver twenty two Wide

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receiver twenty seven finishes, could be
a better indication or reflection of his actual

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value of being on the borderline of
that wide receiver two wide three value range.

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The why five twenty twenty campaign is
the outlier, and I don't foresee

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that sort of sealing existing in Jacksonville
with Christian Kirk DRAFTYTN take bigs B,

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Evan Ingram eventually Brenton Strange, Stills
A Jones, all in the mix fighting

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for a volume. So in summary, Calvin Ridley is certainly a short term

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asset to consider, and he's a
lottery ticket in dynasty because of age,

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being out of football for a few
seasons, and the idea a lack of

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longevity. So if you want to
roster him right now, you're hoping for

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a wide receiver two returning investment for
his upcoming campaign. Wide receiver one is

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within the range of possibilities, but
there's far more risk or downside to value

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him in that category as opposed to
flipping him for a profit right now,

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cashing out on the name recognition and
all the hype generating day and day out,

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especially now in training camp for Ridley
in Jacksonville. For me, he's

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more of wide receiver two or three, if not high in flex. And

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if he starts off the year as
promised, which we think is going to

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be wheels up, ready to go, then that is the perfect time to

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capitalize and sell high assumed to be
thirty old wide out this time next year.

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This is now his age twenty nine
campaign twenty nine in December. But

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I'm not buying the narrative that really
is suddenly back as a set of forget

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it clear, dominant asset and dynastye
from here on out. It's now time

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for a quick break and I'll break
down two more lottery ticket players for twenty

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twenty three. Jamison Williams. He's
twenty two, suspended six games by the

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NFL for violating betty regulations at their
scene limited year one reps due to recovery

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from a twenty cl It's obviously a
bad start to his pro career in sophomore

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season. In six games played last
season, Jamison caught one ball for forty

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one yards. It was a touchdown, nine targets. He was brought back

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slowly to avoid further injury or a
setback, and it was a smart approach

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in my mind from Detroit's for the
twelfth overall pick last season. I don't

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expect Jamison an unseat Almaris Saint Brown
as bob reship one for the Lions ever

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barring their contracts intersecting, but he
should be able to step in and become

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ob receiver two ahead of the likes
of Josh Reynolds, Margaret Jones now new

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member Denzel Mims Cliff Raymond. Jamison's
target competition could instead come from rookies like

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Jimior Gibbs or even Sam Laporta,
as Detroits is suddenly assembling a loaded off

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at the depth chart with a few
core key pieces. Back in May,

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Lions head coach Dan Campbell said that
Williams is quote miles ahead of where he

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was last year end quote and praised
his activity in OTA's The fact that Williams

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is healthy practicing is ideal. Being
away from the team from suspension come actual

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game reps. That's a tough part
to factor into his current outlook. Luxury

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is still out as well on Williams, an NFL talent, after he was

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below average as a prospect with Ohio
States from twenty nineteen twenty twenty before a

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rough team with Alabama in twenty twenty
one. With that seventy nine fifteen seventy

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two fifteen receiving line nineteen point nine
yards per catch, Jamison he's best known

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for his speed field structured ability.
He did not run a forty officially at

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the Combine last year because of the
acail recovery, but his rumored to be

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in the four point two four point
three second range, which is elite straight

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away speed. So is that enough
to propel him into wide receiver one,

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wide receiver through territory and dynasty for
me right now, Initially the answer is

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no. I'm going to treats or
value Williams as a wide receiver three or

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flex with the men's upside, but
factoring in plenty of uncertainty as well,

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factoring in he won't be a possession
or volume driven wide receiver. That's I'm

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n off for the sake of the
Lions offense. Jameson could mixin across the

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middle of the field and in some
comeback routes, but for the most parties,

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you want to be a little lifter
with that elite speed and try to

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take the cap off of defenses down
field. The big playability could win you

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weeks like a Christian Watson somewhere in
that vicinity of comparisons. But make no

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mistake that James Williams is a lottery
ticket because we don't know what we're going

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to get when he hits the field
after suspension, and that suspension further damps

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his outlook immediately for twenty twenty three. The last, but not least,

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how about Darren Waller thirty one September. Waller has struggled with their ability with

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the past two seasons, but hopefully
a change of scenery from the Raiders that

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the Giants helps put a career back
on track. Past two seasons twenty twenty

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one a fifty five six sixty five
two line, ninety three targets, twelve

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point winners Pertetch eleven games played good
for the PPR tight End seventeen twenty twenty

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two, it got worse for Waller
twenty eight three eighty eight three fourty three

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targets, thirteen point nine ars Pertetch
in nine games played PPR tight End thirty

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one. That is a far craft
from a Waller used to be when he

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hit his prime years with the Raiders, and that level production and availability is

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a disappointment. After the dominant twenty
twenty campaign he had one seven eleven,

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ninety six nine, one hundred and
forty five targets the PPR tight end two

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that is the Darren Wallery were customed
to for a short stretch of a few

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seasons. Listen, I don't expect
Waller to recapture that twenty twenty four at

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the Giants. Even so, he
could serve as the legitimate primary passing game

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weapon or p ttographer Daniel Jones.
As has been the case, remaining healthy

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on the field will dictate Waller's success
or failure from here on outs, and

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that is something that we have no
insight on. He's either healthy or he's

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injured. I'm only to take the
gamble on Waller's or tight end one since

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he's not going to cost the premium
or expensive price tech compared to other tighten

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one options that are higher an ADP. And when it comes to Dynasty ADP,

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Waller is falling substantially because it was
age and recent injury woes. Now

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that Sequon Barkley and the Giants failed
to reach a long term contract agreement,

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it is possible, if not probable, that the star running back holds out

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beyond training camp and it's a regular
season. If that occurs, Waller could

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be in line for a massive workload
after already being projective to lead a team

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and receptions, targets and probably most
counting stats. This is shaping up as

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a great situation for a while to
excel with his new team in New York.

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With the Giants, it truly does
boil down to his availability when it

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comes to health and staying on the
field. If he stays in the field,

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he's going to produce, simple as
that, he's a tight end one

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whose ADP or trademarket value is not
reflective of a starting talent in our lineups.

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People are writing off Waller, fading
him because of age. I am

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not going to do that. I
think it's a smart move to buy low.

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The louder ticket dilemma is what version
of Waller would get prime Raider form

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or the past two years where he's
not even on the field able to achieve

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what he's fully capable of. That's
the risk, and based on your risk

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tolerance, it will dictate if you
want to either buy, sell, or

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hold him. Because he's one of
those players where once the season begins,

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you're either correct about him being a
focal point of the Giants offense and thriving,

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returning great value compared to what it
took to acquire him, or the

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opposite, where he's a sunk cost
in dynasty that literally only carries name back

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condition hoping he'll be what he used
to be. Time will tell thank you

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again for listening. Quick recap of
my lottery ticket players With twenty twenty three,

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I talked about Javata, Williams,
Kyler Murray, Calvin Ridley, James

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Williams, and Darren Waller. Any
follow up questions, you know where to

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go. That is Patreon mobile app
website. You'll find me on there and

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00:16:21,159 --> 00:16:23,399
link in the show notes to join. You gain access to one bonus show

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per week, unlimited DM ability to
send me questions for trades, bounce off,

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00:16:27,120 --> 00:16:30,759
any ideas. It's like we're touching
each other one on one. And

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then the best part, at least
for this time of year, is my

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top fifty rankings by position, both
rookies and veterans combined, this week's quarterback

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and then we'll have running back,
wide receiver, tight end in eventual top

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one hundred. Those are available only
on Patreon, part of the five hour

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00:16:45,039 --> 00:16:48,360
per month price tag, and they're
an Excel spreadsheet form as well as audio

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spoken form for you to reference and
then don't forget you either get in my

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calendar. If victors did take advantage
of the thirty percent off roster calls over

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on Google Meets for the rest of
July. That is thirty percent off a

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00:16:56,480 --> 00:17:00,240
thirty minute call or three percent off
a one hour call message mea Viggers did,

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00:17:00,240 --> 00:17:03,799
and I'll get you locked in on
my calendar. Thanks again for listening.

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Until next time, This is the
Dynasty checking out. Hope you all

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have a great rest of the week. See you