Hello, and welcome to the Dynasty Dude Podcast. I'm your host, Corey
Evans. Thanks for listening. This week, I'm talking about lottery ticket players
with twenty twenty three. I guess came back from a trip to Vegas,
so I'm in a gambling mood. Figured it'd be a good topic to break
down. So five names that are lottery tickets. We don't know if they're
going to be boom, bust, feast or famine, hence the risk or
gamble it's going to require to invest in them for this upcoming season. Before
I get to that, a few reminders. First, don't forget for the
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Accordingly, let's get right to it. Lottery ticket players or twenty twenty three
Up first, I'll have Javante Williams. He's twenty three. The latest status
update from an ESPN article was that Williams said the plans for endeavor to clear
him for to start a training camp and that he will practice in some capacity
during the actual sessions. Day to day head coach Sean Payton has been optimistic
about Williams for most of the offseason. At the same time, Peyton has
praised Samaj p Ryan asserted that he will have a significant role in the Broncos
offense. We cannot forget that Givanta towards ACL in Week four of last season
against the Raiders. It was not a clean tear either, as Williams also
toward the LCL on his right knee in addition to suffering damage to his posterior
lateral corner. Therefore, it was a serious injury, sort of like JK
Dobbins in the past, where it was not only the ACL tear but additional
structural damage. Javanta's four game sample size from twenty twenty two should be dismissed
because it was a limited data to work with. His rookie output in twenty
twenty one could be a good benchmark for his future value and or usage.
To recall, twenty twenty one was a two oh three nine h three four
rushing line four point four yards per carry and a forty three sixteen three receiving
line on fifty three targets. The latest running back example we have of an
ACL tear along with that further ligament damage is as I mentioned JK Dobbins from
last season. He actually returned in Week three, but then sustained a setback
in Week six, which then kept him sideline until week fourteen, where he
eventually returned to a previous form of himself. It was not full one percent
Dobbins, but it seemed close to it. I tend to believe that Javanti
Williams would be eased in to the twenty twenty three campaign and that the publist
is not out of the question. After all, Denver made signing p Ryan
a priority after edition out a two year, seven and a half million dollar
contract, and between Williams and p Ryan, Sean Payton has been much more
vocal and advocating for p ryan skill set van Williams paid. His comments obviously
about Williams have been more so on the right track heading the correct direction of
his time tail to return, whereas p Ryan is the one receiving all of
the positive jump beats about news, his role, etc. So based on
pure cost, p Ryan is the more iCal option to acquire then Jivant.
But jivanta ceiling is far superior and higher than that of p Ryan, So
that makes Javanta a lottery ticket with the unknown role and how long will take
him to be back to old form from his post acl tear all those factors
on a table Javanta is more of an RB two, if not flex for
me, than true RB one. Long term, the RB one ceiling and
donasy still exists, but don't pay that price tag right now. For running
back you won't be able to count on that tour production for at least not
in the short term. Up next is Kyler Murray, who's twenty six.
In August. Last week, Kyler stated that his goal will be ready for
week one. That's an optimistic and perhaps unrealistic timeline. After Murray towards ACL
fourteen last season. It's encouraging that Kyler has been cleared for post surgery workouts,
but as we know, it's a long recovery back from a twenty ACL
for any position, let alone a quarterback who's dual threat pass and rush.
Fortunately, murray l tear was clean, meaning no additional structural damage to other
knee ligaments, and that could improve his return Timetable co back is a unique
situation because you have to be able to pass footwork in the pocket, extend
plays with your legs. It's not as simple as we'll say a rob receiver
tight end where you're pass catching. Running Backs like Javonte Williams also more difficult
because of the nature of the position. In the meantime, Arizona's left with
veteran quarterback called McCoy and fifth round rookie Clayton Tune, who comes to an
illustrious college resume from Houston. Kyler himself has been a fancy star for most
of his four year NFL career to this point. Diving deep into his stats,
his career high marks annually by category. These are not necessarily one season,
but just in general career best numbers three thousand, nine seventy one yards
passing, twenty six touchdowns, twelve interceptions, sixty nine point two complete percentage
rates, seven point nine yards press attempt one hundred and thirty three rushes and
enters your nineen yards rushing and eleven rushing touchdowns. Those are clear cut quarterback
one numbers if they were extrapolating to the same season. The issue is we
won't be able to count on that level production in twenty twenty three unless Kyler
is back for Week one. His yearly fantasy finishes r QB six, QB
three, QB ten, QB nineteen, QB nineteen being outlied because Kyler towards
ACL in week fourteen. Outside of that, you know, three campaigns,
Murray has been a top ten quarterback. That means it's a quarterback one in
a ten team or twelve team league. So we can assume one healthy and
back in the field to value Kyler as suck step being a quarterback one.
The caveat is that we don't know when that is going to occur in twenty
twenty three. So in super Flex, if he's your quarterback one, treatments
your quarterback two. In a redraft or one quarterback Donasy league, utilize him
as your quarterback two with an eventual quarterback one outlook. In general, I
think there's no better Bilo in Donasy right now, especially in Superflex, than
Kyler Murray based on his age, pedigree, level, consistency in prior campaigns.
There is the theory that Arizona will to trade Kyler after this season if
they are in the one on one contention for twenty twenty four to draft someone
like Caleb Williams. Even if that's true, Kyler has established enough a baseline
to become a starter elsewhere, So in or out Arizona, Kyler is someone
to trade were now by the discount by the timeline that isn't necessarily here on
the horizon to play in twenty twenty three. My guess is that he's not
rushed back a locking change between now and then with his timetable to return,
but from the Cardinals thrown off a standpoint, why would you rush a franchise
caliber player and Kyler back after three towards ACL meek fourteen. That's such a
late season tear that you're up against the wall to return quickly as opposed to
easing him back in making sure he's close one hundred percent, if not fully
recovered. Because of the injury. It makes Kyler a lottery taken for twenty
twenty three, especially those banking on him returning immediate quarterback one Valley, because
that is unlikely unless he clears some major hurls between now and September. Up
next is Calvin Ridley. He is twenty nine in December. The last time
we saw Calvin on the football fields in twenty twenty one, he delivered a
thirty one two eighty one to receive an effort for nine point one years pertech
on fifty two targets and five games played. Since then, he has been
suspended, traded, from Atlanta at Jacksonville and now reinstated into the NFL.
If you bought low on really during that span of time, then you're currently
sitting on an appreciated asset that you can need to utilize in twenty twenty three
for outputs or flip for a first or player vital value at running back,
wide receiver, tight end, even potentially quarterback and super reflective. Someone is
in desperate need of a possible wide receiver one. Candidates, if you're a
fan of my work, you know that I'm out on Ridley at cost this
season, no matter the format, Redraft or Dynasty. In fact, all
things being equal, I prefer to roster Christian Kirk in Dynasty. After his
breakout first season with Jacksonville and Trevior Lawrence in twenty twenty two, Kirk had
an eighty four eleven O eight to eight logue, thirteen points years protect on
one hundred and thirty three targets. At this point, Ridley is the assumed
wide receiver one for the Jaguars. While that may be true, banking on
Calvin to return to old form and provide longevity is a risky proposition in Dynasty
compared to redraft and redraft you're selected really for one year. Perhaps he is
a stable wide receiver two with potential for more upside week to week. Ridley's
standout NFL season actually came back in twenty twenty with the Falcons after a ninety
thirteen, seventy four nine efforts, one hudred and forty three targets for fifteen
point three yards pertetch. That year he was the PPR Wide Receiver five.
We thought at that point he was ascending into Alpha wid receiver one territory.
But outside of that campaign, Ridley's PPR finishes as a pro are wide receiver
twenty two, wide receiver twenty seven and wide Receiver one O two. That
data suggests twenty eighteen twenty nineteen, which were the wide receiver twenty two Wide
receiver twenty seven finishes, could be a better indication or reflection of his actual
value of being on the borderline of that wide receiver two wide three value range.
The why five twenty twenty campaign is the outlier, and I don't foresee
that sort of sealing existing in Jacksonville with Christian Kirk DRAFTYTN take bigs B,
Evan Ingram eventually Brenton Strange, Stills A Jones, all in the mix fighting
for a volume. So in summary, Calvin Ridley is certainly a short term
asset to consider, and he's a lottery ticket in dynasty because of age,
being out of football for a few seasons, and the idea a lack of
longevity. So if you want to roster him right now, you're hoping for
a wide receiver two returning investment for his upcoming campaign. Wide receiver one is
within the range of possibilities, but there's far more risk or downside to value
him in that category as opposed to flipping him for a profit right now,
cashing out on the name recognition and all the hype generating day and day out,
especially now in training camp for Ridley in Jacksonville. For me, he's
more of wide receiver two or three, if not high in flex. And
if he starts off the year as promised, which we think is going to
be wheels up, ready to go, then that is the perfect time to
capitalize and sell high assumed to be thirty old wide out this time next year.
This is now his age twenty nine campaign twenty nine in December. But
I'm not buying the narrative that really is suddenly back as a set of forget
it clear, dominant asset and dynastye from here on out. It's now time
for a quick break and I'll break down two more lottery ticket players for twenty
twenty three. Jamison Williams. He's twenty two, suspended six games by the
NFL for violating betty regulations at their scene limited year one reps due to recovery
from a twenty cl It's obviously a bad start to his pro career in sophomore
season. In six games played last season, Jamison caught one ball for forty
one yards. It was a touchdown, nine targets. He was brought back
slowly to avoid further injury or a setback, and it was a smart approach
in my mind from Detroit's for the twelfth overall pick last season. I don't
expect Jamison an unseat Almaris Saint Brown as bob reship one for the Lions ever
barring their contracts intersecting, but he should be able to step in and become
ob receiver two ahead of the likes of Josh Reynolds, Margaret Jones now new
member Denzel Mims Cliff Raymond. Jamison's target competition could instead come from rookies like
Jimior Gibbs or even Sam Laporta, as Detroits is suddenly assembling a loaded off
at the depth chart with a few core key pieces. Back in May,
Lions head coach Dan Campbell said that Williams is quote miles ahead of where he
was last year end quote and praised his activity in OTA's The fact that Williams
is healthy practicing is ideal. Being away from the team from suspension come actual
game reps. That's a tough part to factor into his current outlook. Luxury
is still out as well on Williams, an NFL talent, after he was
below average as a prospect with Ohio States from twenty nineteen twenty twenty before a
rough team with Alabama in twenty twenty one. With that seventy nine fifteen seventy
two fifteen receiving line nineteen point nine yards per catch, Jamison he's best known
for his speed field structured ability. He did not run a forty officially at
the Combine last year because of the acail recovery, but his rumored to be
in the four point two four point three second range, which is elite straight
away speed. So is that enough to propel him into wide receiver one,
wide receiver through territory and dynasty for me right now, Initially the answer is
no. I'm going to treats or value Williams as a wide receiver three or
flex with the men's upside, but factoring in plenty of uncertainty as well,
factoring in he won't be a possession or volume driven wide receiver. That's I'm
n off for the sake of the Lions offense. Jameson could mixin across the
middle of the field and in some comeback routes, but for the most parties,
you want to be a little lifter with that elite speed and try to
take the cap off of defenses down field. The big playability could win you
weeks like a Christian Watson somewhere in that vicinity of comparisons. But make no
mistake that James Williams is a lottery ticket because we don't know what we're going
to get when he hits the field after suspension, and that suspension further damps
his outlook immediately for twenty twenty three. The last, but not least,
how about Darren Waller thirty one September. Waller has struggled with their ability with
the past two seasons, but hopefully a change of scenery from the Raiders that
the Giants helps put a career back on track. Past two seasons twenty twenty
one a fifty five six sixty five two line, ninety three targets, twelve
point winners Pertetch eleven games played good for the PPR tight End seventeen twenty twenty
two, it got worse for Waller twenty eight three eighty eight three fourty three
targets, thirteen point nine ars Pertetch in nine games played PPR tight End thirty
one. That is a far craft from a Waller used to be when he
hit his prime years with the Raiders, and that level production and availability is
a disappointment. After the dominant twenty twenty campaign he had one seven eleven,
ninety six nine, one hundred and forty five targets the PPR tight end two
that is the Darren Wallery were customed to for a short stretch of a few
seasons. Listen, I don't expect Waller to recapture that twenty twenty four at
the Giants. Even so, he could serve as the legitimate primary passing game
weapon or p ttographer Daniel Jones. As has been the case, remaining healthy
on the field will dictate Waller's success or failure from here on outs, and
that is something that we have no insight on. He's either healthy or he's
injured. I'm only to take the gamble on Waller's or tight end one since
he's not going to cost the premium or expensive price tech compared to other tighten
one options that are higher an ADP. And when it comes to Dynasty ADP,
Waller is falling substantially because it was age and recent injury woes. Now
that Sequon Barkley and the Giants failed to reach a long term contract agreement,
it is possible, if not probable, that the star running back holds out
beyond training camp and it's a regular season. If that occurs, Waller could
be in line for a massive workload after already being projective to lead a team
and receptions, targets and probably most counting stats. This is shaping up as
a great situation for a while to excel with his new team in New York.
With the Giants, it truly does boil down to his availability when it
comes to health and staying on the field. If he stays in the field,
he's going to produce, simple as that, he's a tight end one
whose ADP or trademarket value is not reflective of a starting talent in our lineups.
People are writing off Waller, fading him because of age. I am
not going to do that. I think it's a smart move to buy low.
The louder ticket dilemma is what version of Waller would get prime Raider form
or the past two years where he's not even on the field able to achieve
what he's fully capable of. That's the risk, and based on your risk
tolerance, it will dictate if you want to either buy, sell, or
hold him. Because he's one of those players where once the season begins,
you're either correct about him being a focal point of the Giants offense and thriving,
returning great value compared to what it took to acquire him, or the
opposite, where he's a sunk cost in dynasty that literally only carries name back
condition hoping he'll be what he used to be. Time will tell thank you
again for listening. Quick recap of my lottery ticket players With twenty twenty three,
I talked about Javata, Williams, Kyler Murray, Calvin Ridley, James
Williams, and Darren Waller. Any follow up questions, you know where to
go. That is Patreon mobile app website. You'll find me on there and
link in the show notes to join. You gain access to one bonus show
per week, unlimited DM ability to send me questions for trades, bounce off,
any ideas. It's like we're touching each other one on one. And
then the best part, at least for this time of year, is my
top fifty rankings by position, both rookies and veterans combined, this week's quarterback
and then we'll have running back, wide receiver, tight end in eventual top
one hundred. Those are available only on Patreon, part of the five hour
per month price tag, and they're an Excel spreadsheet form as well as audio
spoken form for you to reference and then don't forget you either get in my
calendar. If victors did take advantage of the thirty percent off roster calls over
on Google Meets for the rest of July. That is thirty percent off a
thirty minute call or three percent off a one hour call message mea Viggers did,
and I'll get you locked in on my calendar. Thanks again for listening.
Until next time, This is the Dynasty checking out. Hope you all
have a great rest of the week. See you