Well whiskey coming thing, my pay money, why don't? From power Line
blog dot com and produced by Ricochet dot Com. This is the three Whiskey
Happy Hour with your bartenders Steve Hayward, John You and power Lines International Woman
of Mystery Lucretia. Have you gotta giving? Let that whiskey flow where you're
being in love down he Low. It's the three Whiskey Happy Hour Gala New
Year's Eve edition, our end of year wrap up on events and look ahead
of the year coming up. And I even get to host my own show
again. You know, my two co hosts are like, you know,
ruthless about beating me aside to run the run the show we will sooner or
later during this episode, Steve do almost surely starting now. Perhaps this is
the episode devoted not exclusively but with the spirit of whiskey and whimsicality. Because
what we're going to do is do a quick review of what each of us
think was the most significant story of twenty twenty three, and then I'll look
ahead to twenty twenty four, with each of us doing three to five depending
on time. Potential surprises, not predictions, necessarily, but possible surprises coming
our way. In twenty twenty four. But before we get onto that,
first of all, Happy New Year's gang. What are we drinking to ring
out the year and ring in the new I want to go first. I
want to go first. So at the Lucretia household, nobody gets ties or
bubble bath or any of those sort of pajamas, those kind of socks,
those traditional things. You know, if you need those things, you buy
them. So it's always a little bit of a challenge, and we don't
do a whole bunch of things. My son got a trip to Texas,
a helicopter ride where he gets to shoot hogs from a helicopter with a fifty
cow. So that's kind of a cool time. That's what we get in
our household when we need it's why is that a gift? And so he
was very clever and got I brought only the two whiskeys, because there's also
a brandy and a couple of other things. These whiskies are tenth Mountain,
this one's an American single malt whiskey, and this one's a rye. But
the reason for that, and he's very clever, is that I spent a
considerable amount of time at Tenth Mountain up in Upstate New York at Fort Drum.
I wouldn't say that I was the one deployed, except that the soldiers
were always deployed in the wintertime to Panama, to Panama, and it was
back in upstate New York. It was forty to fifty below zero. The
only reason my house was warm is there was an inch of ice on the
inside of the windows, so it kind of insulated it anyway. So I
actually did my time at Tenth Mountains. So I have my Tenth Mountain rye
and my Tenth Mountain single malt, and of course my Scotch, which is
a fifteen year old Glen Fintage. So you really are doing the three whiskeys
three whiskeys tonight? Can you guys beat that? No? Well I can't,
John, what are you doing? What do you I'm actually on the
same wavelength as Lucretia as always, so I have twelve but twelve year Glen
Fittach twelve years. She beat me by three. Yeah, but I thought
i'd be traditional today too. Yeah, I've been. I have not had
time to get out to shop for whiskey, so I just have a you
know, a triple pore of my lafoy Kyle. Right, okay, John,
wait wait before he goes on, how many whiskeys are bottles do you
have in your house? Uh? I wanted to take a picture and then
send it in for you could, Yes, so I could do that.
So I'd say to ten, maybe ten or eleven? Right now? Yeah,
I talk about twenty five or thirty and Steve has one, well maybe
three, but one three? What are you talking about? Yeah, Okay,
I'm bad at this and I won't. I won't, and you can't.
You can't use your home renovations as an excuse like you do for everything
else. All right, enough of this Before we get to our wrap up
of the year and surprises for next year, there are a couple of news
items. One is just when you think, Lucretia, we're done with our
lugubrious discussions of lookism the last couple of weeks, lo and behold controversy in
the last forty eight hours about the conservative dads. What's the hell I'm going
to get this exactly right? The Conservative Dads. Real Women of America calendar
for twenty twenty four, and it's you know, slightly cheese kiky photos for
example, of Riley Gains in the bikini, which makes perfect sense. She's
a swimmers, she's a swimmers physique, and a lot of actually Saint Hilaire
in a bubble bath, and who I don't know who that is, right,
I mean, they follow her on Twitter. She's the one, by
the way, who has been documenting the and I we saw this when we
were in the airport a couple of weeks ago. You might have seen it
also, John the shall we call it the expedited travel arrangements being made for
illegal aliens in airports all across the country, but especially to soon in Phoenix.
Well, one of the other I mean, I don't know a lot
of the ladies on this calendar. One of them is Dane lash who I
don't know, but I know who she is. She is posed on the
calendar with a couple of a semi automatic weapons. She's been a spokespersonally in
array I think, or at least certain you know, gun causes, and
I don't know. It's a lot tamer than what I've posted at the end
of my weekend pictures on power Wide. So there's this big fuss among conservatives
that this is what Lucasia means it's too it's too sexist, or it's it
seems really it's a little bit like I shouldn't make fun of Clotting Gay's ugly
looks because there are more substantive things to say about her. Well, you
can have pictures of Riley gain looking hot in a bikini, because there's more
substantive things that matter about conservatives and not these days there isn't. By the
way, it does sound like, I mean a lot of Twitter commentaries seem
to be swallowing the feminist line that's objectifying women, which I say, and
what they these are not These are not fake photos, are they? No,
they're real photo. I mean, so they chose to take their photos
in these clothing, in these poses, right, so, and they're hardly
I mean, you know, it's just Riley Gaines twice in the bikini and
Ashley Saint Clair wants in a bubble bath, hardly revealing another one. She's
wearing a black evening gown or something, and they're promoting what is it,
you know, the anti butt light. I forget what the beard are trying.
Anyway, So there's where we are, so we would it would be
okay, if they were men dressed this way, I don't know that's it's
the fact that their women dress this way makes it controversial. Well, someone
mentioned on Twitter that gosh, you know who didn't have a dad who had
the snap On Tools calendar in their garage back of years ago, And that's
true. Snap On Tools used to have these total you know babes wearing very
tiny bikinis. They actually looked it up. They discontinued that calendar way back
in nineteen ninety four under realize pressure, right, and what was There was
also the TV show, the Tim Allen Comedy that had the full time card.
Yeah, tool Time. I remember that was like the most popular sitcom
in America for years. Right, Yeah, that's right. And no,
what this is? I mean, you know, I'm used to the liberals
whining about this, but when our team starts doing it, there's been an
argument back and forth. But when you know, voices on our team getting
all anyway, I get I get pressed. You know, of course that
there's going to be massive demand for a power line you know, three whiskey
happy hour calendar now, in which the readers will demand that all twelve photos
be of Lucretia yes, well, and then wait, you've got old photos
of yourself from back in your Jane Fond of workout days in the eighties.
You've got to diagnose. What I said was because John. I was teasing
John. We were having our typical little debate back and forth about Ukraine,
and he came back and said Reagan would have supported Ukraine blah blah blah,
And I said, haha, the eighties called they want their foreign policy back.
Not the first time that Lucretia has quoted Obama to me as a kind
of desperate I've become. But John, quite rightly and cleverly wrote back that
you know, of course, of course he wants the eighties foreign policy.
The eighties had the best helped me, John, Fashion, movies, fashion,
and music. Yeah, it's all bent downhill. So I wrote back,
and I said that that I had done one little modeling stint in the
nineteen eighties and the pictures. You could ask mister Lucretia, he will tell
you that I am a dead ringer in the pictures for Pat Benatar. It's
mostly the hair style and on the clothing. But I don't know that I
actually facially look like her. But but the get up is total, Pat
Benatar, I don't know where those pictures are. I know that, you
know, sometime between the eighties and now, they've been seen by at least
somebody like mister Lucretia. But I think that they're buried in a box at
the bottom of the shed in the back, which would take me like four
years to dig out. So we're not going to have an option anytime soon
for the proofs from that model. Yeah, but we're going to be bugging
you every week, and listeners, if you want to see this calendar produced,
you should be relentless in the comment threads to mande Lucretia's you know,
go through those boxes and find it and we'll produce it and put it up,
or better yet, pay for an intern to work through Lucretia's papers.
I love, Yes, I think my silo creaciable chip in Steve let me
you need to let me share my screen, and you're, oh, sorry,
yeah, you can share this with the listeners Afterwards. My argument was,
if conservatives are really going to complain so much about these women in these
calendars, that maybe what we ought to do is have a side by side
just a twelve month calendar, but half of the picture at the top is
a conservative woman. Half of the picture will be a liberal woman. Steve
had a very clever response to that, which was something along the lines that
I thought that was the view. But I say we do. Barbara mccolski,
geez, and I know you actually you actually assembled your calendar for that.
I could do it the way. People have always said that the conservative
women are way more attractive than liberal women. I mean, think about even
who's in Congress now, with the exception of AOC, I'm told by younger
people that they find her attractive despite the fact that she has a horse face.
She's really attractive the rest of them. I mean, you know,
you could compare even someone who's who's older but still quite attractive with the senator's
name is Southern, Marsha Blackburn. Marsha Blackburn. Yeah, yeah, exactly,
she's attractive. There's quite a few attractive women. She dresses well.
And yeah, you as well, as always, you tend to underestimate Hillary
Clinton. You know some of the pictures, some of the pictures from back
when was president Bill Clinton was president. She's not horrible. When she went
from stopped being an ugly hippie for a while when she was in the White
House and somebody did her hair, and so when she was and she wasn't
you a lumpy and dumpy? But no, she's well when she you know,
there was the famous pink sweater press conference when she was under fire and
that wasn't and she looked terrific and that was not an accident. I think
that was on purpose because they always was that when she wasn't making cookies.
All right, enough of that, enough of that for now, speaking of
another I'm sorry, I'm just gonna say it. I think Nikki Hayley is
an attractive woman, but boy, did she ever blow it this week.
And now I'm out of defensive for her, because you know, she had
several weeks ago said well maybe we need to censor social media or no ban
on anonymity. That was it needed ban a nonymous participation on social media,
and that was dumb. And then this week she got the civil war question
and totally flubbed it, I mean flubbed it in the worst possible way.
And her attempts to clean up on Aisle six I've been even worse. It
was a plant. Well, I mean, no, of all the laming
question. Well, look, listeners, if you missed this, she's said,
I forget what she said, but it was totally dumb. Then she
tried so well, yeah, of course, as she was she was asked
what was the cause of the Civil War? Yeah, she clearly had no
Claremont graduates as her advisors. They would have been all over in US.
But she said it was that. She said it was about the balance between
liberty and government power. That was her second answer. But that was the
bad answer. That was that was the clean up answer. Yeah, I
forget what you said the first time, but it was just dreadful and so
first of all. But then the this was a plant, This was a
hostile question meant to embarrass me. Well, you know, I would welcome
a plant like that, because the same is by the way, he rambled
a bit, but he got the right answer. The right answer ought to
be, especially if a democratic plant, the answer should be we had a
civil war because the Democratic Party refused to accept the results of a free election
after spending a generation trashing the principles of the American founding and denying the Declaration
of Independence. Kind of like today, that would be the right answer.
You know, turn it around and make it a liability for the left.
You know, we saw the same problem happen when Governor de Santa as well
Florida issued the education standards here four or five months ago or six months ago,
and there was some language you could cherry pick. You read the whole
thing, it was fabulous, but you could cherry picked the language that said,
well, slavery was complicated, blah blah. And you know ricks wait,
no, not Rick Scott. It was the Scott running for president of
South Carolina. A bunch of Republicans piled on to Tim Scott. They piled
on Republicans and by the way, right now, listeners, Lucretia is sharing
a headline from the Washington Post saying conservatives really are better looking. Research says,
you know, we got it from social science for that. Anyway,
she totally blew it, showing once again that maybe she's not right for primetime.
And I don't know, do you want to I hesitate to ask Lucretia
if you want to add okay, totally mendicated. Okay, the only actually
no, no, no, on a slightly different topic than I'll leave it.
Digjohn, is you know the whisper campaign that supposedly h Donald Trump Junior
is has is trying to convince his father to completely denounce any effort to make
Nikki Haley his running mate, because he will absolutely destroy any prospects he has
of winning if he does. So. Have you heard that? Guys heard
that? Heard she said it. He said it in public. I saw
the cliff. Yeah, he saw Don Jr. He was on a podcast
and he said, there's no way she's going to be vice presidential candidate.
I think that's correct. I mean yeah, I think well we'll talk about
that as the primary season unfolds. I think so it's relevant news right now.
That's the only reason I brought it up. There's nothing more to say
about it. He his dad in no uncertain terms, you will lose more
than half of your support if you bring that, that silly twit on the
ticket. Yeah, but I think that was a true proposition even before her
fumble this week. But right, well, let's move on. She just
turns out to be a light intellectual lightweight unfortunately, and DeSantis, you know,
got the right answer. Yeah, right, meets pretty easy. Yeah,
well, all right, let's then to move on to the main event.
For this year ending episode, which is what is for each of us
the most significant and important story we think of the year, and then the
part two of this will be our surprises for twenty twenty four. I'll go
first, and by the way, you can name a couple of runners up
if you've got like two or three nominees, because I do. I am
grumpy the colleges have ruined college sports. I think that's a more significant cultural
story than a lot of people make. I also thought initially that the big
story of the year was the collapse of the Santas campaign and the revival of
Trump, and I think it is a very big story. Who a year
ago, the Santas was in the lead in the polls and Trump was down.
And then I think the turning point was the Trump town hall on CNN,
which ended up costing a head of CNN his job because Trump did so
well on it. That was Trump was back, baby, and he was
really impressive. And all the other things we've talked about, you know,
the indictments and all the rest. He's back. And I think I could
talk a while but won't about the mistake the Santis of the Santa's campaign.
But Dan more I thought about it, the more I realized the biggest story
of the year was the triple play of the Harvard unc case, of the
October seven events in Israel, and the aftermath exposing the hypocrisy and moral bankruptcy
of American universities. And here I think, I do want a brief historical
analogy, because I know Illinois lucretia, and you know I lived for that
sort of thing. But I got to thinking about nineteen fifty four for a
minute. Two things happened in nineteen fifty four, won the Brown versus Board
of Education decision, which we know set off several decades of pitched battle.
Right you had the massive resistance and so forth. The second thing that happened
in nineteen fifty four that I think legal people don't remember that was the Army
McCarthy hearings. And that was the moment that was contrived and staged and never
reported accurately in history books. But nonetheless, that was when Joseph Welch turned
on McCarthy with the famous dramatic moment, have you no decency at last?
Sir? And that was thought to be the moment that broke McCarthy and broke
the spell of McCarthyism, and I think there's some broader truth of the popular
narrative. But now fast forward to now you had the Supreme Court decision,
pretty clear, pretty strong. We liked it. Then you had the end
of the end of the year, the hearings with the three presidents of the
Ivy the universities. That was a disgrace. And I think those hearings,
and I promise the creache I'm almost done. Those hearings rank with the McCarthy
hearings, the Watergate hearings all over North in nineteen eighty seven, which totally
upended the narrative of Irankantra. And I think this one up ended the narrative
and public perception of universities. It doesn't mean that we're going to win.
It only means that we have, in sports terms, the possession arrow and
we may have them on the run if we can follow up and keep going.
But I think this year was a turning point and that whole conjurary of
problems that we bundle under wokeery. And I'll stop there and say that's my
big story of the year. Well, John and I had a really interesting
discussion after as opposed to what you were just talking about, Steve, John
was an uninteresting discussion. Oh, I had a really interesting discussion right after
the Harvard decision about whether or not this was going to have a wide spre
and you were part of it too, Steve. I'm just teasing a widespread
effect beyond just the sort of simple question of counting admissions by race, whether
a they would double down on that, figure out a way to do that.
We know they tried that very hard. We know that at your university,
my university, and university's a across the country. Uh, every every
administrator under the sun has tried to figure out how they can continue their DEI
policies under some other name. At universe my university, it became no more
use of the word diversity. Now we have to use the word inclusion instead.
Right, But which is you know, a scam and just a way
to get around it. So we talked and then we talked about the you
know, the possibility of it spreading. John gave us a nice discussion of
how this might affect the corporate world, even though the the decision obviously didn't
have a direct legal impact on the corporate world. We all were kind of,
you know, skeptical about whether whether it was a turning point, whether
you know, the decision would just be ignored by academia and so forth.
I am not quite as convinced as you are, Steve, that that we
have them on the run. However, we actually I disagree with you in
two ways. I think the opposite of the way you framed it in some
ways. Let me see if I can explain that. On the one hand,
the respect that the average American has has for higher education has been you
know, waning by leaves and bounds even before the Harvard decision, and you
know, we've seen that across the board. The whole student loan debacle didn't
help all these things. Right. On the other hand, you would have
expected that maybe some college administrators, university administrators, big shots would look at
this and say, maybe we need to do something. But of course what's
happening is that that all of the the elite university administrators are doubling down.
Charles Freed, of all the more ones in the world, well buys that
guy came out, and I mean so they even Larry Summers, he was
absolutely terrible, who was actually speaking out against cluddie and gay and the fact
that she's still in Harvard the few black black scholars who were sort of,
you know, completely undermined and discriminated against by her. And so anyway,
my point to end all that and give jo on the floor is that I
do agree with you. However, however, I don't think it has anything
to do with some sort of hearings in McCarthy. I don't think that's it.
I think I'm just have somebody say we don't think that donors should be
able to have an influence on university policy. These same people have been raking
in billions and billions over the years. Uh. And of course you know
the idea that Congress is actually looking into this and wondering whether they ought to
be funneling billions and billions of federal dollars we might actually see money make a
difference, is what I is my point. John, So we're still talking
about Steve. Well, I mean, you don't have to, John,
I'm even talks to you for your review want but well, you know,
I think part of the an important contributing factor to Steve's point about maybe Wokism
has hit its waterloo this year is the Gaza war I think that's the biggest
story because the Gaza War is what triggered this anti semitism. This did trigger
ani Semitism. It made it acceptable to publicly display anti semitism on the left,
and it was that hearing at which Claudie and Gay immolated herself, right,
So I think I think to me that's the big story. And the
reason why is because in part not just because of what's happening in the Middle
East, but it showed I think reasonable people who haven't been paying attention that
wokeism and cultural Marxism has a strong anti Semitic element to it, and that
I don't think people realize that. I mean, I think we we knew
that, but I don't think most people know that because they don't. They
don't know anying about cultural Marxism or Marxism. So were you surprised? Were
you surprised or either one of you surprised at the level of vitriol at the
you know the is it? I guess? Let me put it this way,
the call the pro Palestinian idiots that are protesting and so on, their
facts are completely wrong. They know nothing, they know less than nothing.
It's not that they don't know anything. But it's just that everything they know
is wrong. Right. I'm not the slightest bit surprised. I don't think
John is either the I'm surprised that it's I'm surprised that it's in public,
Like I think, like the people when you read what they write, you
know, the theorists and so on. Uh, you know, there is
a strong anti Semitic element to what they say. But you know, I
didn't think it would burst out in public with you know, the whatever they
are, the wide general the z generation out protesting as we've seen in public
and then being defended by college presidents, right, people with the fanciest degrees.
And I don't I'm not surprised that they have these policies which have as
their effect strong negative impacts on Jews in this country. BI didn't think that
they would have trouble condemning anti semitism in a congressional hearing. So that's the
I think that's because there's such a bubble the students and these administrators. They
didn't realize that they were saying things which are abhorrent to the majority of reasonable
people in the country. Well, but I mean, but even inside that
bubble John. The shocking thing to me was people who should know better,
like Larry Summers, like Gardine Irwin Chammerinsky, who said, nothing's prepared me
for the anti semitism I've seen on campus since October seven. He was not
paying attention. I've said this before here, I've written about it. Right.
That was just ridiculous. But enough of all that, Lucretia, do
you have your story of the year that you think is loose largest to I'm
going to because that was my story of the year and you stole it.
But that's the way it goes. I've got another story of the year.
You said, have my second third place? Yeah, I actually, even
knowing the fecklessness and abject corruption of the Biden administration, I am still shocked
and surprised about the disaster at the border. I'll be honest with you.
Two one hundred and thirty thousand apprehended at the border in the month of December.
How many got aways? We have no idea. We have no idea,
and the it is hard. It is hard for me even to contemplate
even knowing all of the explanations that are given for the corruption of the Biden
administration. In their handling of this. It is still impossible for me to
wrap my head around the idea that they are still allowing this to occur.
And then that corrupt, senile, pos pedophile president of ours has the unmitigated
gall to call January the Month of Human trafficking Awareness? Does he have I
mean, you guys don't see it, but I see it all the time.
Do you have any idea the human suffering that occurs because that border is
open, and because it's a welcome matt to everybody, and because the cartels
can and do kidnap. Actually it's worse than that. They get families to
give their children, to give their women to the cartels in exchange for money,
and then they're sex trafficked. And they're sex trafficked all over the country.
They're sex trafficked here in Arizona. And how can you stop that?
You close the damn border. You close it. It can be closed.
It can be closed without a wall. It would be better with a wall,
but they could, you know what, shoot people who try to cross,
shoot on site like they do in other countries, would be the most
humanitarian thing this country had ever done. That's my belief. And so the
surprise to me is not that the Biden has the border open, but how
incredibly awful the situation has become. And then you have Mophead and other idiots
in the Biden administration. The border's more secure than it's ever been and they
lie unable. It's that to me is a surprise. Well, i'll tell
you. I'll tell you what that wasn't the surprises. But last week,
and it's one thing for Fox News to cover this, They've had reporters down
there fairly often showing things. But last week I noticed, and I flipped
around the channels because I got curious about this, But all three networks,
ABC, SE, CBSNBC, they had segments on the evening news more than
one night in a row, fairly high up in the order of the broadcast
from the border in Texas, showing some of the pictures we've seen on Twitter.
I thought, that's interesting. Didn't go as far as I would,
They didn't ask certain questions. But the point is the fact that they're covering
it at all I thought was unexpected. I thought, what's this about.
They are taking the polls showing this is deeply unpopular. Biden's handling on the
border I think it's like a twenty percent approval, which he doesn't even have
a third of the Democratic Party. Who are those idiots that make up the
Twilve Yeah, exactly, Well, I think you can always find tho.
Okay, the pointoffs, but one additional thing, and I'd like both of
you to comment. The mini surprise out of that surprise was a the Republican
governors and border states who decided to export their immigrants. There are legal immigrants
to sanctuary democratic sanctuary cities. And how successful, how they didn't give in
when they were you know, we're going to sue you, we're going to
arrest you, we're gonna blah blah blah. They didn't give in. And
look at what it's doing. It may be more than wokeness, more than
October seventh, more than anti Semitism. It may be the thing that destroys
the left coalition. Yeah, yeah, there's some evidence for that, right
Yeah, John, you want to weigh in on this particular point or should
we move on? Oh? No, so I the people. I don't
know if I mentioned the podcast, but I actually spent the last few days
of Christmas in Lucreatia Country. So I was in Arizona, and I actually
saw a lot of stories on TV and actual old fashioned newspapers made out of
paper about the border crisis. I mean, it was I think here in
California, I mean we see some of it, but we don't really You're
right with Christia, we don't really see what it's like on the front line
and just how everybody is thinking and talking about it. And you see the
effects of it everywhere in a way you don't just you know, in northern
California, maybe in southern California do so. I agree that though I think
it's become a bipartisan issue right now, it's not a conservative versus liberal issue.
I also don't think it's a racial issue, because I saw people quoted
in the papers and appearing on TV who appeared to be Hispanic who were complaining
and upset about the way that the border has failed. So I'm coming around
to Lucretia's view that this is, you know, this is I think the
primary that and inflation to me, become the primary domestic policy vulnerabilities of this
administration. I would not have thought that two years ago. Yeah, yeah,
I do. Well. One quick comment on that, John being having
very very many friends of Hispanic heritage, many friends actually who are dual citizens.
Because I live right on the border. My best friend is a dual
citizen, a Mexican and American citizen, and her husband died recently, but
before that he had his visa. He was only a Mexican citizen and had
his visa taken away because he was married to an American citizen and his two
daughters who are American citizens, so they considered him a flight risk if he
got back into the country. So he was actually prevented for the last ten
years of his life from entering legally entering the United States. He lived in
a house two blocks from the wall. Okay, just so you understand this,
but that's one story, one anecdote out of literally hundreds of thousands similar
anecdotes. But what I will tell you is people who have followed the legal
pathway to either residency or citizenship are not happy about the fact that, you
know, literally hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants are crossing that border. They're
getting they're getting cell phones, they're getting credit cards, are getting hotel rooms,
are getting airline flights, are getting bus tickets, you know, on
and on and on. And they had to do it the hard way.
And so it's not a racial issue, but any stretch of the imagination,
it'd say, I want I came here because I wanted to be an American,
and I did what I needed to do, and I followed the law,
and it was often expensive and long and bureaucratic and arduous, but I
did it, and I think everybody should have to do it the way I
did. It's very very common. All right, everybody, take a sip
of whiskey and poor new glass, and let's get on to are look ahead
to twenty twenty four, and I mean we can do if you want,
some predictions on the election and Hunter Biden and Jackie, if you want to,
I think more interesting to try and do what are some possible surprises,
things that we don't expect, but you know there's a probability it could happen,
and you can see the logic of it. I mean, I think,
for example, a prediction, I think Benjamin Netanyah, who is gone
by the end of the year next year, just because he's going to be
the scapegoat for October seven. You can see the logic of that. Maybe
they'll be wrong, We'll see. But I've got several what I think would
be genuine surprises if they happen, and I will will around Robin here,
will each take a turn. My first one is there's going to be a
recession by summer or fall. And the reason I say that is all the
certified smart folks are saying right now, Oh, we're going to have a
soft landing. We've avoid recession. The Federal Reserver geniuses. They've managed the
interest rate cycle just right, smooth sailing. We're gonna have economic growth,
it might even increase. And when I hear everybody saying this in financial world,
just like Greenspan said back in around two thousand and five that everything was
fine in the housing market, that's w I think it's probably wrong and there's
probably going to be a recession. I can give you some macroeconomic indicators to
support that, but I won't because that'll really make Lucretia's eyes glaze over.
She's already yawning. But that's what I think. I'm predicting a recession for
middle of the year. So I don't know if any of you want to
bite on that, or we can just go on to you with your first
surprise, So I don't think there's going to be a recession. Let me
just okay, coming because I think that you know, there's this great book.
Gosh, who's it by. I think it's by this guy Ed Tufti,
who's a professor Yale and went on to greater fame teaching people how to
make a PowerPoint displaced. But he wrote he wrote by the Way. But
before that, he wrote this interesting book that showed that the Federal Reserve generally
tries to cut interest rates and goosey economy during presidential election years. So I'm
going to predict there won't be a recession because I think the Fed is gonna
you know, this guy Powell is gonna cave because he's just in case of
right and wins AND's get reappointed, so he's going to goosey economy cut interest
rates this year too. Everyone's saying he's going to anyway, but I think
he's determined that they're not be a recession during a presidential election year. So
I'm against Steve. I have I have faith in the office seeking desires of
our bureaucrats. Can I just make a comment about Ed Tufty Did you take
a classroom in when you were young. I know I did take the class,
but I was forced to read the book. Well, I took it
in I read it in Macroecon. Yeah. Well, I mean he's famous
for at least two things. One is, yeah, the cognitive style of
PowerPoint, which has this great poster that is, nobody has PowerPoint like Stalin's
PowerPoint. He has the best bullet points. But he also in that's my
PowerPoint. No, he was against the But then also he's the guy whose
book and I forget the title of it, it was on the wait,
the Physical Display of Quantitative Information. Yes, you know that's but that's what
it's about. Yeah, he's got what he's actually was made in the nineteenth
century, but he claims it's the greatest data chart ever. I'll try and
find it and post it in the show notes for this episode. And it
was you didn't don't remember it was Napoleon's march to Moscow in eighteen twelve,
you know, when he tried to invade Moscow in the winter. And I'll
just describe it this way because there's a lot of stuff prammed into this visual.
But he has this big, thick band that gets thinner as you go
to Moscow, and then the band gets thinner and thinner going back to France
in the winter, and that the thickness of the band represents the number of
troops he had. So he leaves with something like four hundred thousand troops.
He returns to Paris after the winter with something like twenty thousand troops, and
he's got a little markers along the way, and he says, that's the
greatest data visualization ever done. Let's just mention that as a commercial comment.
But okay, Lucretia, Oh wait, but John, I didn't you have
your surprise so you said we shouldn't talk about like the various Trump trials want
too easy or the primary, So can't I mean, but I actually just
predict much more stability and less insanity this year. So I don't think Ukraine's
going to lose. I don't think they're going to reach a piece deal.
I think the war is going to go on for a whole nother year.
China is going to do anything to Taiwan. I think Israel's going to close
out Hamas and Gaza, although they'll end up with a lot of casualties.
But I just I just see the trends continuing. I think the stock market's
not going to go way up or way down, but we will. We
won't have a recession. Some I generally don't think about the low probability things
that might happen. I think Biden, and it's going to be Biden versus
Trump. I think, yeah, I think Trump's gonna probably win if you
just go on the past numbers, which probably would have surprised me a year
ago. A year ago, I wouldn't say I think Trump's going to win.
I think DeSantis is not gonna win. He's going to pull out.
I don't understand how that happened. That's something I thought we were going to
talk about. It's just what happened. Well, the Desanta's inspired by Claremont
ideas. There's the photo of Steve meeting. Actually that was the high point
after he met with Hayward. It's been an unmitigated dives. What I mean,
no one's ever going to let the Claremont is to me with another presidential
nominee. Again. Okay, quiet down now, John, you're not any
help. Here's why I surprised if a year ago we had done this format,
would any of us have predicted even a one percent chance that the end
of twenty twenty three, our favorite Democratic Senator would be John Fetterman. And
yet that is what has happened. That's how weird the world can be.
That's why I sort of like this exercise, right. Yeah, And you
know, who would have thought that Kevin McCarthy would only be in office for
what lesson a year? Well, that's true. Lucretia was. Lucretia was
all over that quit. Yeah. So I mean maybe my my my low
probability prediction is that all of the university presidents who testified before Congress and that
hearing will be relieved of office by the end of the year, even if
they're not saying so. So I would expect Claudiing Gay Gosh, she looks
like she's going down. But I think also the president of MIT will have
to leave in the end too. I think I do think we have had
a turning point in woke inc And even if the even if they're not,
I think I think Clauding Gay would have been gone by now except the Penn
president resigned and so they couldn't force her out right away. So I think
they're going to have a decent interval, and the same for the MIT president
too, because I think they're also coming under enormous They're going to come under
enormous competitive pressure from all these universities and conservative states like in Florida and Texas
that are starting at North Carolina that are starting up, and they're going to
start pulling good faculty and students away from the IVY leagues are from Stanford or
Berkeley or you know, UCLA or all the other places that are you know,
have wocism so deeply entwined in the DNA. Now, yeah, all
right, that two low probabilities that all three I mean presidents will resign.
Yeah, no, not a bit. I mean that. Yeah, that's
fine. There's no good listeners. Steve reach out to me last week and
and recommend that I apply for one of those IVY leagues. You should.
No, I can't even imagine a worst fate. But anyway, well,
I'm just I'll say that there's no clear dividing line betweens a prediction and a
surprise. I'm not saying black Swan events are the very low probability but high
consequence things. But oh, I got another one. The Philadelphia Eagles and
the Philadelphia Phillies will make it to the super Bowl in the World Series,
just like they did last year. Okay, Lucretia, do you have a
surprise for us so almost being president of Harvard? That would Yeah, that
would be a surprise, wouldn't it. I'm not big on predictions. I
actually wanted to bring up something that just happened today and ask you guys what
you thought about it. The big headline coming out of Trump today was Trump
announces that he does not believe that either Joe Biden or Kamala Harris will be
the Democratic nominees, and that he will at him. Yeah, here's why.
I mean, I don't think it would be a huge surprise if I
don't think. First of all, let me do it this way. Biden's
going to be the nominee. He's gonna be the candidate, barring some extraordinary
event like a stroke or following down. Tell me why that's the case.
Explain to me has made that decision. Why I'm about damn sense, Yes,
it does. I'll tell you why. But him, it would not
be a surprise if he steps down even I'll tell you why, Lucretia,
It's because, uh, no, doctor Jill Biden has a seance every night
with Edith Wilson and descides that she wants to be Edith Wilson of the second
term. No, I believe that. Literally. I think that Delma is
a board. I know that. But uh oh, but you saw the
we talked about this, didn't we The video they put out for Christmas with
all those sort of transgender dancers dancing. Oh yeah, night Mayor from a
Kubrick movie or something like. I thought, why did they do that?
Surely they must have some Maybe they didn't pick it it was from doctor Jill,
But I thought they did that because they want to pocus in the eye.
They actually wanted to be offensive. And that shows a certain confidence on
the part of doctor Jill if she did sign off on that or propelled it
forward, and how out of touch she is with things. So no,
I literally mean that she thinks she's Edith Wilson and she's a president for this
one hundred years ago, and that's why they're going to go through with it.
And there are other reasons, but I think it's having been a staffer
on the Judiciary Committee when he was there, and then I think this book
about him called what it takes about the nineteen eighty eight race, which is
an amazing book, as an amazing profile of fighter young Biden. And and
he is just overweaning. The only deciding character, the only clear characteristic he
has is ambition. Now that's common amongst a lot of politicians, probably a
lot of people in the Senate. But I think as people get older and
they start to enter early dementia stages, you know, all the things you
know, like their person I reduce is down. I think too the core
characteristics I have, and this core characteristic is just ambition. Ye, well,
it would explain how he lies so with such facility. I mean,
he can't speak half the time, but he can make these incredible lies and
just keep right on going. And every single one of them can be tied
to exactly what you just said, John, I cure cancer, right,
Yeah, Because you know the thing is, I mean he has he's allowed
all these very left wing things to Kurrnder's presidency. But you know, you
read that book, look at his career. He's actually not a very ideological
or principle guy. Like he's not defined by He's not like Ted Kennedy,
for example, defined by a certain set of principles, how much I disagree
with him, John bushed he just wanted to be in you know, he
just wanted to win office. Yeah, Steve and I did an entire,
an entire podcast before we were clever enough to invite you on as a permanent
co host. We did an entire podcast on Joe Biden's time on the Senate
Judiciary Committee, and Steve dug up some really great quotes, speeches, but
from Biden when he was pro natural law and when he was anti natural law,
and when he was pro you know, and in the space of four
years, right right, it was actually quite quite telling. I don't think
any of that really even matters. Now. He's whoever his handlers are,
whether it's doctor Jill, and she's obviously, if you believe Steve, as
ambitious as he is. But I don't know that she's got any direct ideological
leanings either. She's smart enough, but certainly there are people behind the Bidens
who are pulling some strings, and they are very ideological. And that's why
Biden has become a left wing nut job of you know, pushing transgenderism and
all this other stuff. As Steve put it, in our face down our
throats on purpose, designed to offend us at every turn. Yeah. Look,
I mean the point John, is that, I mean, all politicians
are ambitious, as you say, but most of them have some ideological objective.
You know, Kennedy wanted national health insurance and other things, and once
a while they have morals or character. Yeah, well this, but even
the case of Clinton and Obama, they both had a large political ambition,
which was to overturn the Reagan years. They had to be careful about doing
that because they couldn't do it directly. Biden only wants to be president.
He's pine for his wife, and he inc and let go of Now I've
said this before. He's like Gollum in the Ring. This is his precious
and he's not going to let go of it, you know, without being
thrown into the volcano, which you know, I mean it could happen,
but me but wait, Lucretia didn't make her prediction yet. Well, well,
not good at predictions. I think everything you said was wrong, John,
And I actually I'm gonna be a little bit sorry, a little bit
modeling here. I got up this morning and you know, I'm on vacation,
and not only am I on vacation, but the university shut down.
So it's one thing to be on vacation, and everybody expects you to answer
emails and take phone calls and go to meetings and so on when you're on
vacation, But when the university shut down, you can actually be on vacation.
And so I'm just leisurely over my coffee, reading the news, reading,
you know, across across the spectrum, and I'm just getting more and
more and more depressed by the situation, the situation at the border, the
situation, you know, Biden saying that January is the month of Human Trafficking
awareness, and again too much personal experience with what's really happening there watching you
know, just how he's the Supreme courted rule that he can't forgive student loans,
and he's figured out a way, probably all illegally, but using executive
power to forgive at least one hundred and thirty two billion dollars worth of student
loans so far since that decision, and made it so that nobody else is
paying their student loans even if they haven't had him forgiven, you know,
just on and on and on, and so I'm hoping John that some of
your more optimistic predictions are right. I don't consider you're Ukrainian prediction optimistic,
and I don't want to talk about Ukraine now, but I just think it's
that's going to be a really ugly situation. But I'm hoping that the entire
American populace wakes up to what our corrupt elites are trying to do to this
country and says enough is enough in twenty twenty four and gets rid of every
single one of them across the board. It's not a prediction, it's a
hope. Well, that's the the the central question of the election cycle,
I think, So I'm going to agree with you on that. But then
I'm going to go to this round two and I'm going to give you my
second unexpected or surprising event that I think it could happen. Oh, this
is going to bait you, Lucretia big time. And John, you may
be totally bored with it, but my surprise would be at some point in
the next few months, there may be a major scandal or schism coming out
of the Vatican. And here's how boring. Yeah, you would say that,
here's the brief background of this. Just last week, there were these
news stories that, oh, hope Francis, who's you know, sympathetic to
Marxist liberation theology or Marxism with salsa as I was called it years ago when
it was a thing. He said, Oh, well, you know we're
open to blessing same sex unions, which flies the fad. Well now,
ah, yes, let me qualify that, lucretia, because that was the
news stories which didn't get the story right. If you read it carefully,
maybe you want to characterize it better than I can. He wasn't saying I'll
just tell you that, Okay, I am not a fan of Pope Francis.
He says idiotic things that are so easily manipulated and twisted by a media
that wants him to be a progressive Marxist blah blah blah. So I blame
him. But what he said was that he would bless the persons who were
involved in same sex relationships. And of course, from a purely Christian point
of view, every person deserves the blessings of the pope because every person is
a sinner. Right, What if he had said I bless transsexual practice,
I bless sex unions or any of those things. Then, of course that
would have been heresy to the nth degree. I didn't say that, correct,
No, And and you know, people I know who defend him say
exactly what you just said, and they're right, And I'm not defend him.
Well okay, but but here here I think you may agree with me.
I mean, I go back to a few weeks ago, and he
also talked about how we we want to have I forget the exact language,
but it was like equal representation of women and church councils. Here's the point,
here's what But I think this is why I think there's going to be
some kind of scandal or schism. You know, he's been having a big
feud with some conservative bishops and has dismissed a few of them. But also
my point is Lucretia and here I think you agree with me. He has
a habit, bad habit, I'll say, for the of stating making any
statements using the progressive vocabulary. And I don't know if he knows he's doing
that, if he realizes that, because that's not going to modify the left
that wants the Catholic Church to give in completely to the agenda of the cultural
left. Right. In every particular case, he could have said much more
precisely. I mean, on the on the bit of, you know,
wanting to get more women involved, he could have said something like, we
would like to elevate the voices of women of vocation. That's a distinctly Christian
language that that is abrasive to cultural leftism. He didn't used the language of
inclusivity and diversity and representation, right. Uh, and that's what. Oh,
there you've got a picture of him wearing a rainbow cross that and anyway,
Well, if it's real, it's everywhere across the internet. But I
don't, honestly don't know if it's real. I was wondering if maybe John,
who stays out of these things, might know. Well, that's going
to lead you to my third surprise, but I'm going to hold that for
the moment. It's about something else. But yeah, so I don't know.
I I think that there's there's a behind the scenes and it's been bubbling
for a while. There's a lot of schism, I'll put it that way,
which may become maybe not scandal. The Vatican itself has a lot of
corrupt and cord Yeah, so that I mean That's not my expertise and never
will be. I'm too much of a you know, late late life converted
Catholic to follow much of that sort of stuff. But the last two popes
would have never used that. I could see both of the last two popes
sing exactly the same thing, but not using a progressive vocabularies. Yes,
right, you know, Mother Earth, Come on, If God is not
capable of undoing the effects of anthropological what's it called, climate change? If
God can't handle that, there is no God. Well do you remember the
pope? Well, do you know? Roll the tape back forty years and
you will remember Harry jaff Is saying to us in class attacking the Bishop's circular
about nuclear weapons because the first sentence that is something like the existence of nuclear
weapons calls into question the sovereignty of God. And Jaffa would say in class
that Jewish Professor Wright, since when did Catholics stop believing in the omnipotence of
God? What's vulnerable? Boom right, and we see the same thought.
This is a sequel to all that, it seems to me. Okay,
John, do you have an in surprise? I was just going to say
that when you said schism. I got interested, but then I grew bored
because you're just talking about a division in the Vatican bureaucracy as far as I
can tell, by the way, wouldn't I mean, it's a huge rights
in little country with its own giant bureaucracy. I would assume everything Hope Francis
said has been drafted and debated and you know, worked on before he gives
it, so that if he's saying all these progressive things, that reflects someone
something of the bureaucracy of the Vatican. Yeah, well yeah, but not
just him. It's not just him. But that's where the possible public schism
or scandal would come will be the people who will say he has surrounded himself
by very bad people something like that. That's how this went. And what
Steve glussed over, just so you know, John, is that he has
in fact been extremely u what's the word disciplinary against bishops, especially in the
United States, with conservative views, I mean conservative from a Catholic, not
conservative necessarily entirely politically, but conservative Catholics. He has excommunicated these deprived bishops
of their diocese as dioceses trying to suppress the Latin Mass, which you know
exists in a few places. But okay, he wanted to change the words
of the Lord's prayer. Yeah yeah, he's just uh well, I mean,
but when that's brought to me, honestly as a Catholic, my answer
back is the Catholic Church is a human institution inspired by God, but it's
made up of humans. I mean, do we have to go back to
the Borges to remind ourselves that popes have not always been the finest examples of
holy persons anyway? Or federals fifty one if memory angels right? Okay,
yeah, But the problem with Catholicism, I think sometimes is this notion that
the pope's papal infallibility is entirely misunderstood over you know, uh, it's a
very limited concept. But anyway, that's enough for that. Go ahead and
give us your next surprise or unexpected possibility if you have one. So how
about that this year will be the rise of conservativism and politics and society throughout
the world, So not just the United States, but look at all these
elections that are going on all over the world. And so I think that's
why I think you're wrong. Then who's going to get kicked out. I
think who will end up staying. I think you're going to see Maloney's going
to be I think that in uh these all these I think you'll see the
German Chancellor have to leave, you know, the the Greens and the ky
basically the socialists are going to have to go. The only place I think,
I think, you know, count that's the one. I think that
might be the exception will be England because they've had so well, you know
that the Tories have so mismanaged things, you know, they you know,
it sounded like they were, you know, they were just getting us ready
for the McCarthy show, right with all their different prime ministers and all the
screwed up policies. That I think that's going to be the outlier. But
yeah, I think you're going to see the return of conservative governments in South
America. I think, you know, Trump was just the precursor. And
then you've had the election of Georgia Maloney and you've had the election of that
what's his name, wil Dirt in the Netherlands said wil Dirt, yea wilds
in the Netherlands. So I think that's I think we're going to see.
Actually, it's not just we tend to focus so much in the United States.
We don't realize that, of course we have a lot in common with
these other countries, and you're seeing the raw the is the sort of rejection
of this kind of cosmopolitanism that Obama represented and now that Biden is continuing.
So that's another I don't know if that's enough, low probability enough for you
either. Well, I don't know. I'm I'm predicting a sweep across the
world as I refer the German Chancellor as Sergeant Schultz open Zeros. Right,
I bet you're what the next French presidential election is. But the latest polls
show Marine Lapan, who has all she has more baggage than than than Sam
Brenton on a rampage and an airport luggage lounge. And she's leading, She's
leading Macron in the polls. I know she's leading Magron now right, right,
And so yeah, that's very telling. We'll see about something. What
about the god awful, despicable situation with our neighbors to the north. Oh
well, oh yeah, I think he's going to win this too, because
he's way behind us, way behind. So that's like Steve's expert on this
time, but doesn't it feel like nineteen seventy nine, nineteen eighty again a
bit? And the question also was a time when things turned in this very
conservative direction in many countries at once. Well, the question is the one
Lucretia raises, which is we reach a critical mass of people who just don't
get it and are so corrupt that they're gonna you know, I hold out
hope on all that, but I am going to go on to my surprise
potential surprise number three, not a big one, but it is at some
point in the next next year, and I think related to the election cycle,
we're going to get a moment or two where a deep fake video is
going to make big news and royal the whole political scene. I mean,
these things are getting so good and it's going to be and the problem is
it'll be likely about Trump. But the thing about Trump is how do you
tell some mate up thing Trump said what he really says, right, or
Biden for that matter, because he talks total nonsense. But I think the
technology is getting so good now. I do think the major news networks probably
have people who try and check things out to f verify them. But the
world of social media, things can take wing and it becomes a news story,
whether it's legitimate or not, and it will take several days or even
it just takes twenty four hours. He stop for a second, Steve,
Well, you understand what I'm saying. Yes, well, I'll stop.
Here's the yeah. No, no, no, it's not I want to
add. I don't want to stop you from speaking. But we have we
have a virtual learning environment for our cyber program. And inside this world,
this virtual world that we've created, we have media companies. And in those
media companies, we use AI that polls constantly, pulls from social media,
from legitimate news sources, and creates news broadcasts in Chinese, in Portuguese,
in Spanish. And I would defy you. I would defy you today if
I could set one a real one next to a AI gen write a news
story for you to pick out which one was real. And that's done by
our students, right, that's done by our students. Okay, So here's
the problem is why you can present me of it with a tape of somebody
saying something that you can find scandalous, not you personally, and expect me
to be you know, shocked and dismayed by it, and then I'm ninety
percent likely to think it's it's a fake because it's so easy. Kids can
do it, right. But that's why, I mean, isn't somebody clever
going to drop one of these things in an opportunity? But they are dropped
all the time, I mean, honestly, But okay, I mean,
I don't know. I just I just think there's a chance that that's going
to be a new moment when I don't know, we'll see. But they
are renaming cybercom the Army Cyber Command to be information Warfare. Yeah, yeah,
just think that through. That's the new name information warfare, John,
how about I predict on the technology state. So on the technology front,
I'll predict that some city will start to allow totally driverless cars and it will
be a great success and there'll be more demands for it that The failure of
it in San Francisco was actually an aberration, and of course was part of
progressives not understanding the idea of risk, and so they want a complete one
safety for everything. And so yes, there was a terrible accident between a
car and a pedestrian. Although I believe it was caused initially by someone driving
a car who hit the woman first and then and then she collided with the
driverless car. But the driver's car didn't stop, it kept going with her
under it. That was the terrible accident. Well, people liberals just don't
understand. You have to heir that to what it would be like with no
driver less car, right, you have to. And so I think that
the track record of safety of driverless cars is just you know, ward is
a magnitude better than human drivers. Yeah, and so ELS had not become
a pariah to the left, Oh, we probably wouldn't be seeing it quite
to the extent you're talking about. And I do have a little little anecdote
you might appreciate. I told these guys not on the podcast last week,
but either before or after that, the recall that's been imposed upon Tesla,
it's not really a recall, it's a software update. And what that software
update is, so if when you're driving not a self driving car, but
an autopiloted car, which is something different, that's what I have. I
don't have a self driving Tesla. There's no cruise control per se. It's
it's autopilot and what happens is when you turn it on, it not only
takes over the speed modulating this be keeping you. It keeps you inside the
lanes. You no longer steer, you know, I mean, it takes
over that. Now you're responsible. It'll slow down, if there's a car
in front of you, it'll really slow down quickly, put you through the
womindshield if something runs in front of you, does all of those things,
but you're supposed to maintain control of the vehicle at all times. And if
you are sitting there and you're not necessarily keeping your hands on the wheel and
giving it some kind of pressure, it will start screaming at you. And
if you don't do something, it will kick you out and you will not
be able to use auto steer for the rest of the trip. Okay,
that's been it, and I've hated it since day one because it's so paternalistic.
Or if you are driving in auto steer and you want to get around
somebody because you're being a nice person, you don't want to, you know,
box them in, and if you go over a certain speed, it
will also kick you out of auto steer, so then you don't have cups
control it. All for the rest of your trip. What the software update
did was, among other things, say that if you do something like that,
you don't keep your hands on the wheel, or you drive too fast
an auto steer, you are kicked out for fifteen days. Wow. Okay,
but yesterday I was driving, I was driving on this open highway.
I had my auto steer on. Somebody I think it was you guys,
probably sent me a text message and it wouldn't come across my screen. So
I picked up my phone and I put it in front of me to look
at the and of course my car's driving for me, hands on the wheel,
and the car starts screaming at me, please pay attention to your driving.
Put your phone down. I can imagine you wouldn't like that. Surprise,
surprise, How didn't know? How didn't know you were looking at the
phone camera on me? Oh? So the camera. There's a camera on
the inside of the tesla watching your movements, and if you do things it
doesn't like it. That's the new I mean, the camera's always not having
that. Man, what if you just put like the little a little sticker
on top of the case, like we talked about at the beginning. I
thought of it. I probably will. Yeah. Man, anyway, John,
do you have another surprise for us? Like, no, that was
my surprise about the test. The self driving car will be accepted by some
city in the United States and it will be a great benefit, and then
everyone else will realize that once again, we screwed it up in San Francisco.
Yeah, Lucretia, do you have another surprise or are you? Are
you out of surprises for us? I'm out of surprises. I know you
guys didn't find my paternalistic tesla's story interesting. I really want to about this.
Well, here's another another prediction I'll make is I think we're going to
the Conservatives will lose the housebo going to win the Senate. But that's yeah,
it's actually I think probability, right, Yeah, A lot of people
think that, right, Yeah, just based on the way things are going.
Yeah, all right, I will I will give you. I've got
a whole bunch more, but I'll just give you the next one. I
think I think I telegraphed to you. I think they're a surprise evand of
you know, low probability, but possible is China will deliver and ultimatum to
Taiwan sometime this year, and the reasons they'll do it. Look, but
by the way, it will be an ambiguous one. It will be,
you know, Taiwan, we want you to commit to reunification with the country
within some timeframe. It'll be designed to exploit Biden's weakness. I think that's
one of the reasons for doing it now. And I forget when the Taiwan
election is scheduled for it soon. I think, right, it will be
it will be baked type yeah, and it will be putting Taiwan on the
spot because I know there is a faction there. I think that wants to
declare independence, which would be essentially a declaration of war and inviting a Chinese
invasion. And look, I mean I don't know. Maybe it would pass
washover like a small wave and calm down, but I wouldn't be all surprised
to see China try that. You're skeptical, John, You think they won't,
Yeah, because if you're China, everything's moving in your direction. Yeah,
Like you don't need to you don't need to do anything right. You
know Biden's gonna hand over Taiwan. You gotta do is just keep doing what
you know just harassing Taiwan. You don't have to really do anything major and
right the balance of forces. Sadly, I think in that region is moving
in China's direction because we've been so weak. Now despite that, all the
other countries in that region want to do something collectively to stop China and its
aggressive nature, but we are not providing the leadership or resources necessary. So
I think, if you're, you know, the president of China, why
not just let the let the bet ride a few more years, and you
might then Taiwan just might fall right into your lapt It makes perfect sense.
That's why I say it would be a surprise that would not surprise me.
But all right, let me give you another one. Uh well, I've
got another one. I've got another one, which is that I've got two
cultural ones. Okay. Mcribb actually hasn't been canceled and will return again,
although it was not present in the Phoenix airport today, there's a McDonald's in
the Phoenix airport and I went there to see if they had the McRib It
wasn't there, But I believe that mc will return again. And I'll make
another cultural prediction that Taylor Swift and it's Kelsey. Travis Kelsey will not get
married. They will break up this year, leading to sharp rating declines for
the NFL's all those swifties stopped watching football games, lucrecious. They go,
Yeah, I am waiting for the moment when in the playoffs, because the
Chiefs are this great team but have been playing very erratically. So get to
the first playoff They're gonna have to play on the road for the first time
in the years. And Travis Kelcey drops a key pass late in the game,
and Kansas City and and and Taylor Swift will be banned from ever playing
a concert again in the state of Missouri. That's what that's my expectation,
you know. Yeah, you keep wondering on the swift boat. Swift Boat
veterans are going to dust off their playbook. I know they keep saying swifties,
and I thinking, why are we talking about the two thousand and four
elections, right exactly? Yeah, to celebrate Kwanza, oh mostly, Oh
yeah, you saw that the Biden's statement weshing is all happy Kwanza, right
yeah, Well, and Kamala has been celebrating it since she was two.
Yeah, I've got I've gotten before as I'm ready. Yeah, exactly.
Yeah, well then you don't want me to do my last uh yeah,
let's hear your last prediction in the last last surprise. All right, Well
this is this is a very high risk one tree to make with you two
because it involves Ukraine. I'm looking out right now at the world in front
of us. It looks to me like, you know, Biden may get
the aid out of Congress, but it's going to be tough. And I
think the writing on the wall is we're not. The blank check is over.
And the one thing I noticed is is you know all the people that
had Ukrainian flags in their Twitter bios that sort of waned, all the people
doing the gosh, I'm all for you. That's all fading the public opinion
show declining public interest in podcast last week when I talked about all this,
yeah, well all right, but I thought I heard it. I thought
I heard you say these All right, let me get to the let me
get to the point, which is the surprise will be Ukraine reaches a peace
deal with Russia that will involve seating the territory of Russia occupies and that'll be
the best deal they get. And I think, well, I'll stop there.
That's what I think. You're just premature. It's just not this year.
Not this year. Okay, well could be this year, because I
think, okay, that's what I think. Actually, I'm plaid. If
you guys are gonna let this pass, they'll warn you down a little bit.
No, No, I just think you're wrong. I think that's like
the likely outcome in the long term, but just not this year. Ukraine's
going to give it another year. I actually think that again this I don't
think this is a low probably prediction. I think Biden will because he wants
to get re elected, he will make a deal on the border and we
you know, you will see that more funding for Israel Ukraine that they made
with Mexico. Yeah. And then but then you know, there's going to
be a big deal on the border with a lot of funding for border security.
Even though and then Biden doesn't mind getting attacked from the progressive left.
I think if he wants to get reelected, right, it'll be like Clinton's
Sister Soldier Movement moment. So, but also I think that's like a high
probability event. Actually, So that's why I think Ukraine's not going to settle
this year because they are going to get a huge infusion of money from US
one more time, one more year at least, could be. We'll see,
but for now, we should move, We should draw to a conclusion.
He wants to hear our new year's resolutions. Well, yeah, what's
your new year's resolution? I get get get okay, lucrecious guy. She's
going to find her pictures from her hot modeling days. No, but that's
Steve's new Year's resolution. You know, I'm located very close to a military
base, and it's a training base for the most part, which means that
it's a lot of soldiers who are here on a temporary basis. Well,
most of them go home and I go to the airport and I go and
I wish them all a great block leave and do all those nice things.
But there were like fifty who didn't, who couldn't afford because I have to
pay for it themselves or for whatever reason, to go home for block leaves.
So they were stuck on this military base for two weeks, you know,
with nothing to do but stay in their barracks all day. So I've
been doing I've been doing activities, and one of the activities that I did
was it's called the Bisbee one thousand, the Great stair Climb. I didn't
do the whole thing. I didn't do the whole thing. I did probably
a four hundred stars. We didn't have time to do the whole thing.
The way the schedule worked. I couldn't walk for two days afterwards. So
my resolution is to figure out why my body's so old and broken I can't
walk up four hundred stairs at the same pace as a twenty one year old
soldier. So that's what I'm going to do for the for the new year,
and I'm going to keep that resolution. Steve, God Steve, what's
yours? Oh well, I get better get a more diverse and inclusive arrangement
of whiskey for the next year of our podcast. God one would hope.
Yeah, you know, I'm really I'm really bad. I don't really do.
I don't even really start thinking about it till about thirty minutes before that
silver apple whatever it is now drops. But I resolve this year to be
more open minded to Lucretia's crazy ideas. That would be a surprise of the
year. I actually I had to tell a listener John that got mad at
me for not arguing back with you. I guess last week maybe wait wait
wait waits time? Did you not argue back? When did this happen?
You knew? Guys had to actually pretty much a long back and forth where
I didn't say anything, and I wouldn't have believed it, but I actually
listened to it today when I was on the on the treadmill, but I
was long back and forth, I say anything, and when we were done,
I didn't add any commentary and I just said, Well, part of
it is because John never listens to anything I say anyway, just like Steve.
So what's the point. That's what I do? Listen? I do
listen. I was a little nicer than that about it, but it's true.
It's true sometimes you just you cherry pick what you listen to. John.
Well, I'm a lawyer. Okay, all right, is it time
for Babylon Bee? No time for Kamela first? Okay, So the best
thing about Kamala so I have a quote from her, not from this week,
because the best thing she did this week to make fun of unfortunately,
but I assume Steve can put this picture up if he wishes to, is
a hit the Harris family Christmas phone, which she sent around. I don't
know if you saw this, And apparently she sent something similar at Thanksgiving time
but no one noticed. And this apparently what she did is she sent a
picture of her cooking with her husband with a massive gas stove of the kind
that her administration wants to ban. Right, that's great, and I'm sure
of the very kind that Steve is not allowed to install in his massive new
kitchen. Oh, I got a permit like literally December thirty, first before
the new law went into effected Mike County stopping gas stove. So would you
actually have such a law. Yes, I could tell you my funny stories
about dealing with the college girls who run the planning department. That's my contract.
Come up, I can't believe you even need to get a permit in
this country to install a gas stove. Well, the real thing was to
get in under the wire to not be required by the state law requiring solar
panel on my renovation. So, oh my god, I didn't want that.
I look, I live in an area where it's foggy in the summer
and trees and it would be stupid anyway, So I recommend this, This
is a great Kamalism. And also I think has I think Kamala is wearing
an apron in the photo, which means, of course it is totally fake.
And then she says, we are making Christmas beef Wellington. That's very
good. I don't yeah, which I don't. Yeah, that's the food
of the oppressor. I just don't know you that either. But then the
quote, I have a quote, an oldie but a goodie, which I
never used earlier this year, which was Kamala Harris's comments during Women's Histories Month,
Women's History Month. I have to say, I didn't even know which
month that was. Actually, do either of you know which month is Women's
History Month? No, it comes after Black History Month goes from February to
June. I want to say it's May, because I told you I had
to neither of you know, speeches March. So she gave a speech to
commemorate Women's History Month. So she said, so during Women's History Month,
we celebrate and we honor the women who made history throughout history, who saw
what could be unburdened by what had been. Damn. So we haven't read
that one on for But that's a classic one. I mean that's so,
someone said, John, do you remember when I had to give a speech
to onom on Women's history Women's Equality Day, which is a day they celebrate
the passage of the Nineteenth Amendment. I had to give a speech. Did
you say you thought it was wrong? Yeah? I think said we repealed
yes, right right, And so I had to give this speech, and
I had to be true to myself. But you know, I couldn't very
well go in and say that. So I gave an entire speech each on
the Nineteenth Amendment without ever actually praising either the Nineteenth Amendment or women's suffrage.
But I did praise Abraham Lincoln, Frederick Douglas, and Martin Luther King,
and I got a standing ovation because wow, there you go. So there
you go. It was a great esoteric performance. I'll just say that.
Yeah. Is that like where there's some kind of interior message, hidden message
and shage that only you guys who were graduates at Claremont Graduate School? Can
you figured it out? To John? Trust me, it wasn't that homoestic.
It wasn't that hidden if you got for us. So we didn't really
talk about the protesters to keep you know, gluing themselves to the street and
so forth. But I like this one. You know, these fine citizens
may really have a point, and I'd like to learn more about their cause.
Thanks driver blocked by protesters for three hours. That's pretty good. Nations,
White liberals wish each other Happy Kwanza. Ah right, yeah, uh
hold on, it's on the next page. My personal favorite, even though
this is becoming old news c Span acquired by porn hub. Well that's funny
when you think about it for a minute. This is for you, Econo
of miss out there. Ron Paul asks Santa Claus to end the FED for
the forty seventh straight year. Yeah, I saw that one. That one,
right, that's all. That's good, all right, all right,
John, send us out. We're running along as usual. Okay, always
drink your whiskey, meat and let's go Brandon and Steve God save the queen
man. And a happy new Year, everybody. Yeah, Happy new Year,
everybody. Sure this is my New Year's resolution. When my mother in
law agains yell and shout to the window, I would like to drove her
out, but I resolved not to do it. Here is why I'm afraid
of hitting someone passing by. This is my New Year's resolution. While I'm
at the movies watching a love scene and the lady's hat is blocking half the
screen, I resolved not to shout. Take off that hat. I removed
it gently with a baseball battle. This is my New Year's resolution. When
I take a lovely lady I'm to eat and she orders heavyro instead of meat,
I resolved to let the lady have her film, and of course I'll
also let her pay the bill. This is my New Year's resolution answer Frederick
Gast a cab. When I'm setting with my wife, he on a bus
and a dear old lady stands in front of us. Ricochet join the conversation. H