1
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One place is I going away that
I mean, it's it's worked into the

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mandate of the Fed. They want
at least you know, they have a

3
00:00:08,519 --> 00:00:11,720
target of two percent per year,
which means they want things to get chea

4
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percent more expensive every single year.
Yeah. So that so like it is

5
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like built into our system, to
our Fiat system, that like there will

6
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there is inherently ask to be inflation
because that that's gonna help ask prices rise.

7
00:00:26,879 --> 00:00:29,480
That's gonna help Lordal, the state
rise, It's going to help you

8
00:00:29,519 --> 00:00:32,960
know, stocks rise, It's gonna
help all those things rise. You're listening

9
00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:38,359
to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network,
where you get valuable information you just can't

10
00:00:38,399 --> 00:00:44,399
find anywhere else to thrive in today's
trying times. You need the Financial Survival

11
00:00:44,439 --> 00:00:50,079
Network now more than ever. Go
to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com and get your

12
00:00:50,159 --> 00:01:00,439
free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival
Network now more than ever. And welcome

13
00:01:00,679 --> 00:01:03,599
you are listening to and watching the
Financial Survival Network. I'm your host,

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00:01:03,640 --> 00:01:08,000
Gary Lentz. Just got back from
a long weekend at Freedom Fest in Vegas.

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Saw a bunch of you out there. It was really a blast.

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And I'll do more on another segment
about it right now, we got our

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good friend Eddie Gifford is with us. Eddie, it's great to have you

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back. As always, so soft
blanding CPI coming in, you know,

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defies experts. The core PPIZ point
four compared to point two. The PPI

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was point two compared to point one. I don't know where they get these

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numbers from. Obviously they haven't visited
the Las Vegas strip where I had the

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privilege of paying six dollars and twenty
five cents for a small coffee at Dunkin

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Donuts. Not even not even the
inflation cafe can beat that. No,

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you're right. It's interesting because you
get these two prints at CPI one day

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where we have like the first declinents
twenty twenty, and then you've got PPI

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the next data surprises to the upside. And the thing about it is PPI

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is the crux of everything from the
standpoint that we live in a world that

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the United States of Erica runs on
small business, and so the price of

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things and what gets passed on the
consumer matters. And so when we see

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PPI go up like this, even
though CPI went down, and it's primarily

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you know, primarily has to deal
with like tradely related matters, like the

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cost of labors higher. The cost
of things is higher, the cost to

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do things is higher. So even
if the cost of goods is lower on

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paper, as you just alluded to, I actually live in Las Vegas,

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so I've seen that compounding effect,
and I'm paying at least thirty to forty

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percent more than I was at the
grocery store three years ago. So that

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inflation stacks. It's been slowing,
it hasn't been going down. Let's keep

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that in mind. Everyone keeps saying
inflation is going down. No it's not.

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It's slowing. It's still stacking on
top of last year. And so

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we still have this compound interest of
costs and it's showing up while in the

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everyday Americans bake account like, we've
got massive amounts of debt, consumer debt,

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credit card debt, our loan debt. We're starting to seeing more and

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more for our closures. And because
of that, you know, we're seeing

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kind of a destruction of demand,
which you know, in a way it's

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by design. That's what the FED
wanted to do, was to to basically

46
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get rid of demand. And if
they could do that then they could start

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cutting. But the problem is,
like always, you go through the fastest

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rate hike in history, and then
you wait too long, and by the

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time that you decide to do something, and you're doing it because you have

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to, not because you want to. And if you're doing it because you

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have to, that mean something broke. And let's not even get into the

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fact that we're in a crazy political
landscape right now where volatility is just ready

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to run. We've got some global
issues with the Japanese Harry S. Trey,

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We've got issues in China and and
and then we've got the you know,

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the everyday American at home, like
struggling and ad to to figure out

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do I buy milk or do I
buy gas? Like it's you're in that

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spot right now for a lot of
people, you know, the people that

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got screwed out of all this stimulus
and everything that's happened in the last four

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years has been the middle class.
And the numbers are starting to show it.

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Of course, that's why we call
them lags. I think that we

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all saw this. I think Kerry, you and I talked about this six

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months ago. Well, you know
we saw it, right, But because

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of the lag effect of interest rates
and the lag effect of inflation in general.

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Now it's showing up in the numbers, and by the time it starts

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showing up in the numbers usually it's
like slow than all at once. And

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so my fear is that, you
know, the election happens, and on

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the back end of it, something
really bad happens, whether it's a political

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event or or it's just a breakdown. Because you know, you can only

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pop up things so long before the
dawn breaks. So the sneak hey,

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you know, like it's the Great
Gatsby, How did you go broke the

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you know, slowly at first and
then quickly right, yeah, totally.

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I mean, you know when you
when you get those those numbers, and

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and it's I definitely don't envi the
faeda, right, I mean, the

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Powell has been so strong in his
stance against inflation, and now we're in

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this spot where the numbers are doing
what they want them to do, except

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for the job markets breaking down at
the same time. And now all of

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a sudden, it's like, oh, actually, yeah, these have only

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been part time jobs, not full
time jobs that have been being added,

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and they're starting to fess up to
that and and so we're just seeing like

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this shift, if you will,
and and that shift looks like it could

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become like a true stagflationary environment.
And that's where we got inflation, but

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we got another growth. And you
know, I think that we were talking

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to me about McDonald's comercial not too
long ago where the dad said, hey,

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you know, the kid asks like, what sinflation? And the dad

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says, that's when the cost goes
up or my salary doesn't. And that

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is actually a real world, this
scenario that we are about to base,

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I think. And if that happens, that just means that, like we're

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due for something bad in the stock
work, get you, and typically we

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got those minus forty to fifty percents
once every en. It'sh years, spend

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fifteen. We've had zero or six
for a long time. I hope it

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doesn't happen, but if it does, it's going to be bad. It's

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going to be bloody, and everyone's
going to be like, oh it was

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you could tell. It was so
easy to tell. Yeah, but everyone

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was also saying, wow, it
was happening. It's different this time,

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right, It's always different this time
Eddie, that's yeah, that's Those are

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the words that make you realize it's
not different and you need to head for

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the exits. But things are different
in certain respects, but they haven't repealed

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the business cycle, and you know, the economy is the economy, right,

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I mean, there's only you know, it's it's kind of absurd to

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think that things are really different,
right, Yeah, you can't really think

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that they're different. I mean,
the thing is that behaviors, behavior and

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human beings are imperfect, and they're
always going to act and react emotionally like

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there's no such thing as they truly
one hundred percent objective human being, and

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so as things happen, they react. And we've seen it in behavioral finance,

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to the study of it over and
over and over again, where we

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get these you know, manic crazy
surges blow off tops, if you will,

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followed by castrophes on the back end. So there's no reason to think

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that it's different this time. That
doesn't mean that you run for the hills

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either, though, because it can't
not be invested as the market continues to

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go high. We had a crazy
weekend and the market's up, you know,

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significantly in the last quarter. But
I mean it's up today. You

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wouldn't have expected that. And you
know, you look at like cryptocurrencies and

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they're just on it there. Yeah, what can that be? What's what's

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with the crypto here? Huh?
Well, I think you know, part

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of it is that, you know, on the back end of the survival

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by Trump, like he's seen as
a pro cryptocurrency candidate, and so with

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the odds being kind of more in
his favor, now you're seeing money Russian.

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The other thing is just a cycle
in general. If you look at

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cryptocurrencies, bitcoin specifically post aving,
you usually have some type of consolidation period

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followed by this significant urgent and this
could be the beginning of that, or

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maybe this is just an emotional It's
like we would want to see it continue,

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not just go for four days.
But those are all reasons that they

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couldn't be taking off. Eved I
hadn't looked at the price of a bitcoin

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yet. After I woke up this
morning, it was around sick. Now

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it's a sixty three and a half
thousand. I'd buy some. It's just

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like what you should what you might
want to think about doing with gold.

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This works for me and silver,
buy a little bit every week buy a

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couple hundred bucks worth of crypto.
I mean, I am, like,

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I wouldn't say it's the best performing
asset in my portfolio because gold and silver

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really have outperformed it this year so
far. But A keeps me interested in

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cryptos and B that uh, you
know, it's up. It's up about

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thirty percent since I started. I
was swing trading it for a while.

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Then with a move came, I
stopped swing trading and I just bought and

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held. And you know, you
definitely can swing trade uh crypto profitably,

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but it's not necessarily the thing you
want to do because it's so volatile.

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You you got to remember carry that's
called work. And when you're in nesting

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obviously, like it's uh for some
it's enjoyable, you know, your investment.

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For some people it's it's you know, kind of stressful. And so

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00:10:05,240 --> 00:10:09,679
if you're trading, it becomes more
it becomes more stressful. Now, obviously,

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when we're doing it, we've got
rules and we follow those rules and

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the rules that has worked. So
but I couldn't agree with you more.

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I think that gold and silver and
cryptocurrency is anything that is basically a owner

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to the fiat system in general is
something that is worth having a place in

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your portfolio. You know. The
only thing that I was kind of looking

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back and trying to figure out.
Okay, Like obviously, like you look

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at it from a volatility standpoint,
you say, oh, my goodness,

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00:10:41,320 --> 00:10:45,200
like this is a speculative investment when
you're looking at cryptocurrency and bitcoin. But

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00:10:45,240 --> 00:10:48,600
then when you dig a little bit
deeper and you kind of understand what it

149
00:10:48,679 --> 00:10:50,159
is and what it does and how
it does it, it's like, well,

150
00:10:50,679 --> 00:10:54,320
you know, it's just young.
You know, it was a very

151
00:10:54,399 --> 00:11:03,120
very young asset, but there's a
number and it will continue to be a

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00:11:03,200 --> 00:11:11,480
counter action to the fiat system.
And with everybody mistrusting government in general,

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00:11:11,919 --> 00:11:16,080
it's hard to think that stuff like
the precious metals gold and silver or something

154
00:11:16,120 --> 00:11:22,240
like bitcoin isn't going to do really
well in that situation. The difference is

155
00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:26,519
is that you know, with bitcoin
there's actually a real live ability to transact

156
00:11:26,600 --> 00:11:33,039
right now, and so that's basically
a huge opportunity. I think, like

157
00:11:33,120 --> 00:11:37,759
in general, people are coming around
to it, but for it not to

158
00:11:37,799 --> 00:11:39,919
be in your portfolio. Said this
about other financial advisors, said this about

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00:11:39,960 --> 00:11:43,679
people in general. If it's not
in your portfolio and you're making mistake,

160
00:11:43,840 --> 00:11:46,759
or it should at least have a
slot. Now if you would to trade

161
00:11:46,799 --> 00:11:48,799
it because it's too volatile, that's
fine, but it still should be dedicated

162
00:11:48,799 --> 00:11:52,240
as slots because what you don't want
to do is like, oh, I

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00:11:52,240 --> 00:11:54,559
got that bicycle, but I really
don't want to steal my apple stock now,

164
00:11:54,840 --> 00:11:58,159
right, And so then you're defeating
the purpose. So like you got

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00:11:58,200 --> 00:12:03,759
to have like maybe that that depending
on your risk callor as that five to

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00:12:03,799 --> 00:12:07,600
fifteen percent slot of like this is
where the cryptocurrency is going, and whether

167
00:12:07,639 --> 00:12:11,960
it's being trader or being held.
I don't think that matters, but it

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00:12:11,000 --> 00:12:18,360
has to be there. It just
has to. No, I totally agree

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00:12:18,399 --> 00:12:22,720
with you. I've known about it
virtually from the beginning. I missed out

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00:12:22,279 --> 00:12:28,000
on the major advances. I always
know when it peaks. It's really easy

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00:12:28,080 --> 00:12:35,000
to know when when bitcoin peaks.
I mean I called it in what was

172
00:12:35,039 --> 00:12:41,039
it two thousand, when it hit
nineteen thousand again that yes, twenty twenty,

173
00:12:41,720 --> 00:12:48,320
and I knew it when it hit
sixty seven seven last year. I

174
00:12:48,320 --> 00:12:52,399
think it was that. You know
it's it's not peaking now that I am

175
00:12:52,480 --> 00:12:56,879
pretty confident of you know. On
the other hand, it is the governments

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00:12:58,000 --> 00:13:03,159
really wanted to shut it down.
It could be shut down virtually instantaneously.

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00:13:03,559 --> 00:13:05,240
Even though people tell me I'm crazy, they couldn't be done. I know

178
00:13:05,320 --> 00:13:11,039
it can be done. And the
hey, you just have to look and

179
00:13:11,360 --> 00:13:15,919
look at what's around and you know
you should be seeking some alternatives. And

180
00:13:15,960 --> 00:13:20,840
I still like real estate because Eddie, when's inflation going to go? Bye

181
00:13:20,840 --> 00:13:24,240
bye? Well, inflation is like
going away that I mean, it's it's

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00:13:24,279 --> 00:13:28,559
worked into the mandate of the Fed. They want at least you know,

183
00:13:28,600 --> 00:13:31,759
they have a target of two percent
per year, which means they want things

184
00:13:31,799 --> 00:13:37,879
to get cheap percent more expensive every
single year. Yeah. So that so

185
00:13:37,960 --> 00:13:41,960
like it is like built into our
system, to our Fiat system, that

186
00:13:41,080 --> 00:13:46,759
like there will there is inherently asked
to be inflation because that that's going to

187
00:13:46,799 --> 00:13:50,080
help ask prices rise. That's going
to help lordal, the state rise,

188
00:13:50,080 --> 00:13:52,759
It's going to help you know,
stocks rise, It's going to help all

189
00:13:52,799 --> 00:13:56,919
those things rise, just you know, having the understanding of when the moves

190
00:13:58,159 --> 00:14:03,600
sapping more rapidly or the smart places
to be. And it's interesting because uh,

191
00:14:03,080 --> 00:14:07,360
you know, everyone has alreadys had
this like flight to safety mentality rush

192
00:14:07,440 --> 00:14:11,360
to treasure when rates go down.
But what we've been seeing more recently,

193
00:14:11,440 --> 00:14:13,879
like gold does the same thing.
Gold and silver does the same thing.

194
00:14:13,879 --> 00:14:18,960
It usually sniffed it out a little
bit earlier, but when you're looking at

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00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:24,279
it from another perspective, like look
at treasuries and look at the bitcoin.

196
00:14:24,559 --> 00:14:28,360
Like if you look at you go
back to last year twenty twenty three when

197
00:14:28,360 --> 00:14:33,279
the banks went down, right,
and we had like this that you know

198
00:14:33,320 --> 00:14:39,679
that there was a surgeon raids which
should beat up treasuries and cryptocurrencies, and

199
00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:43,759
then they searched together except for cryptocurrencies, like a ten x version of treasure

200
00:14:43,799 --> 00:14:48,200
of us. And we saw it
again at the most recent of me when

201
00:14:48,600 --> 00:14:52,639
we when the data came out and
it appeared that, oh yeah, we're

202
00:14:52,679 --> 00:14:58,000
going to actually cunt again. We've
seen this run now today is interesting because

203
00:14:58,519 --> 00:15:03,840
the that the treasuries are down and
bitcoin is way out. But that's also

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because bitcoin is a like a fear
trade from the standpoint of distrust and mistrust,

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much like golden zilver arm so it
kind of gives you it appears to

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be developing into this like one two
unched, which you know, could be

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just a really, really good fit
for anybody's portfolio. Generally speaking. Hey,

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you know, I've believed in keeping
five percent and fifteen percent precious metals.

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I think you can up that a
little bit now and not feel too

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worried about it. Obviously, everybody's
situation's different. But you know, just

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like I've got probably about twenty flashlights
in my house and in the batteries sitting

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in the closet. You don't have
too many because they do go bad over

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time, you know, just like
you would keep a flash light in your

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house in case the lights go out. I really believe that you need to

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be looking at other assets in the
same light. Yeah, and I think

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that the hard thing is that you
looked at portfolio for so long, and

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it's always been stocks, bond stocks, bond stocks, bonds, and generally

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speaking, like I can understand the
base case behind that, which is that

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they've they've operated with different correlations,
like almost inverse correlations at times. What's

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still what the ability to go up
over time. The problem is is that

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that doesn't happen when you're inning by
in a bond bear market. Bonds tend

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to correlate a lot more socially cheat
equities, and so we always we've all

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been programmed to believe stocks and bonds, but really what we should be programmed

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to believe is when matters. And
what I mean by that is that we

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want multiple investments to all have the
ability to go up over the next five

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to ten years, but we want
them to go up at different times.

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We don't want them to have a
one to one correlation. We don't want

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them to be inversely correlated, because
of are invorsely correlated. They're just balancing

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each other out. And so we
want things that go up different times.

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One because it gives us an opportunity
to rebalance and buy stuff on sale right.

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And two because like the concept of
when things happen basically just like produces

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so much additional return in your portfolio. You can really run a portfolio yourself

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and just pretend that you get a
static or a turn of eight percent.

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But every third year one asset goes
down by ten and the other fourth year,

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the other asset goes down by ten. And guess what, by having

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those two assets better to just having
one, you boosh your return significantly.

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So you've got to make sure that
what you have in the portfolio is not

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correlated. We like and we like
non correlated, but we also want editors

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return. And unfortunately, when you
look at big sed incoming, you look

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at over the last five years,
it's like big bat zero. So alternatives

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I, you don't think they'll have
a much better place in the portfolio,

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whether it's the precious metals, the
cryptocurrencies, or you know, some type

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of systematic managed future strategy that's leaning
into commodities and currencies and all of that

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type of stuff. But like that
needs to be your offset because bonds just

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aren't it right now, and maybe
they'll be cooking again. But like you

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don't want to have a static This
is my defense because what happens when that

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doesn't work, like in twenty twenty
two and and and that's the conversation that

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you're talking about right now. Keary, short term treasuries, keep your cash

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there. We're not talking we're talking
like, you know, longer duration treasuries.

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So don't maybe twice of course,
yeah, the long duration stuff,

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like you know that that's traditionally been
like the flight to safety, that's been

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the portfolio that saved us, right
the bonds saved us during COVID when we

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had that flight to safety and so, but that I stopped working in twenty

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twenty two. I'm not saying that
relationship will come back. But to be

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all in and be stocks and bonds, you know, to intermediate to long

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durational the ones, you know,
and then as far as like treasuries in

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general. Yeah, like I like
short term treasuries for the next one to

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two years, but for two to
three years, you need to own any

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of you know. Yeah, well
it's it's not really a flight to safety.

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It's a flight it's safe er,
right, yeah, exactly exactly.

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And you look out throughout history,
Yes, when equities go down, typically

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treasuries go down. Words. I'm
like trying to find stuff that might actually

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go up in that situation. Yeah, And there's nothing wrong with that either,

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right right, right. I never
had a person complain that their portfolio

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was up when the market was down, but I haven't complained all the time

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if the market's up, then their
portfolio down. So yeah, well they're

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always going to find something to complain
about, you know, because that's just

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human nature, right Yeah. Well, yeah, realistically, you know,

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you have to you know, you
have to look at this from the standpoint

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of historical returns and the uncertainty of
the future. You know, like gold

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is always a safe event, except
when it's not. Like the past twelve

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years. You know, a lot
of the time it hasn't been perceived as

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such, even though you and I
perceive it as a as such, right,

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But yeah, tho's it. Two
percent interest rates, you know,

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schematic that we had for a long
time really changed the games when it came

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to gold, and like small cap
stops and like a lot of the stuff

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that you typically look for for additional
upside of the cunial or original protection and

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just kind of like stopped working for
a little bit. But remember, like,

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yeah, we need to look back
one hundred years, not ten and

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then and kind and seeing because things
will normalize. They've begun to normalize.

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I mean, five percent rates are
actually normal. It's just hard to think

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that they're going to stay that high
because of the fact that it's an interest

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payment that we have to make as
a country, and it's a the biggest

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line item on our budget. So
the crew knows, Carrie, there's so

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many things going on right now,
it's crazy. But that's why you got

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to stay flexible, and you got
to have true diversification workflow that actually moves

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counters to each other. You do
want to have some read on every single

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statement. You know, everybody's like, huh, it's like, no,

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you have Like if you don't have
read some read on every single statement,

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you have no protection when the market
does something different and in media. So

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it's very very important that that's what
diversification is. Owning five hundred stocks is

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not diversification, especially when thirty five
percent of that is made up of ten

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00:21:56,440 --> 00:22:03,119
stops. Yeah, it's you know, it's like, look at it as

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an insurance policy, like, hey, i haven't had a claim in twenty

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00:22:07,519 --> 00:22:11,480
years on my homeowners I'm just gonna
stop paying it because I'm just giving that

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money away to the insurance companies.
Right, and then the next day,

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I mean, I have a disability
policy. I've had it since my thirties,

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all right. They don't write policies
like this any longer. They just

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00:22:26,119 --> 00:22:33,000
don't, right, And you know, I'm so tempted often to just get

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rid of it. It's expensive and
I've never needed it, so I'm just

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giving that money away. And you
know, I feel like that maybe I'm

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being superstitious, but the fact that
I can't get that insurance ever again,

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00:22:48,160 --> 00:22:52,200
I'm too old and they don't write
those policies anymore. Hey, until my

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00:22:52,319 --> 00:22:56,759
last breath. I'm going until they
kick me off. Because it's some age

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00:22:56,759 --> 00:23:02,839
that kick you off the policy.
I'm not giving it up. Yeah,

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And the thing is is that,
you know, I just think it's important

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that you always have like some type
of insurance in your portfolio. But that

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doesn't mean that when things are more
robust, when the trend is strong,

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it doesn't mean that you can't lean
into the trend more. I mean,

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like there's if you're indexes, you
can lean into individual stocks. If you

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00:23:22,279 --> 00:23:26,039
don't like individual stocks, there's like
two X and three X strategies out there

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that you can lean in. I
mean for the short term as long as

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they're trying to strong. As soon
as they're trying to slows, just move

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00:23:33,079 --> 00:23:37,119
back into no leverage and move back
into the indexes. Right, so you

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00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:41,799
can still lean into that, and
you know what, you'll feel, you'll

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00:23:41,799 --> 00:23:45,039
feel better about taking that chance.
If you have some insurances in your portfolio

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00:23:45,079 --> 00:23:48,960
in the first place, you probably
won't take that chance. Ever, So

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00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:52,160
by having the insurance. I always
tell people this, whether we're talking about

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00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:57,680
gold or managed futures or cryptocurrencies or
annuities, right when that stuff is in

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00:23:57,720 --> 00:24:02,359
the portfolio, now, that allows
us to be okay with taking more risks

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00:24:02,359 --> 00:24:06,480
over here on the other side,
and and what can do that that that's

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what really gives you the ability to
win in the long run and no risk,

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no reward. I don't mean I've
been an athlete my whole life,

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and and you know, I know
that like if I didn't take the risk,

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00:24:18,759 --> 00:24:23,000
I wasn't going to win the match
in wrestling, And when you're when

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you're investing in it's no different.
But that you that it doesn't mean you

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00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:30,920
take a necessary risk. This it
doesn't mean that you don't get calculated risks.

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Yeah, And that it doesn't mean
that you don't maintain like some type

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of foundation you know what in sport, it's usually an athletic stance. In

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a portfolio, it's that core of
like UH of insurance protection and offset,

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and then that gives us the ability
to take those chances and when they pan

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out, all you need is like
one out of five and then to pan

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00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:55,279
out and you're winning. Yeah,
No, no, question about I couldn't

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agree with him, Moore. Eddie, where do we find you these days?

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00:24:56,519 --> 00:24:59,599
So? How do we connect with
you on the web? Yeah?

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00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:02,319
Same, But I mean, obviously
you can just google Eddie Giffer. That's

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00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:04,880
Eddie with a y g I f
f r D. Go to tactive wealk

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00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:08,839
dot com, back splash Eddie dash
Gifford Again, it's Eddie with a Y

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00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:12,559
so e d d y dash g
I f f or r d on the

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00:25:12,599 --> 00:25:17,240
site. And yeah, we're here
to help. We're here to provide an

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00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:22,240
additional resource, if you will,
of acknowledged and information and perspective and uh,

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00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:26,680
you know, we're just we just
like to see people meet their goals

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00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:29,319
and if we can be there to
help them do that, then that's even

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00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:32,319
better. All right. Hey,
the links are in the show notes to

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00:25:32,359 --> 00:25:36,319
this interview on Financial Survival Network dot
com. Make sure you go there.

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00:25:36,519 --> 00:25:38,880
Sign up for you free newsletter.
Click true you'll get right over to Eddie.

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00:25:40,079 --> 00:25:41,839
Appreciate you coming on, Eddie.
We will talk to you again real

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00:25:41,880 --> 00:25:45,599
soon. Be well. Awesome,
Thanks Kerry, having a good wed Thanks

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00:25:45,599 --> 00:25:52,079
for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival
Network. Your solution to today's trying times

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00:25:52,359 --> 00:25:59,160
for the latest go to Financial Survivalnetwork
dot com. Financial Survival Network now more

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00:25:59,240 --> 00:25:59,759
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